Tuesday Morning Hot Links

The Astros were off yesterday, the last day off before a possible postseason return trip. Houston is coming off a 2-9 road trip in which they got out-scored 65-39 - including four one-run losses - that lost them 4.5 games on Oakland and pretty much knocked them out of the running for a 4th straight division championship. 

Oakland and Seattle played a double-header yesterday, and honestly it would be great if they could both lose. That said, the Fightin' Dipotos split the double-header with Oakland. The Astros are the only team in MLB below .500 with a positive run differential (+5). Here's the AL West, as of Tuesday morning:

Oakland: 30-18

Houston: 23-24 (-6.5)

Seattle: 22-26 (-8.0)

For the Astros to win the AL West, they would need to win out and have Oakland go 5-7.

FanGraphs' Postseason Odds:

Houston to win the AL West: 0.6%; Houston to make the postseason: 94.3%.

FiveThirtyEight's Postseason Odds:

Houston to win the AL West: < 1%; Houston to make the postseason: 94%.

Baseball-Reference's Postseason Odds:

Houston to win the AL West: 0.4%; Houston to make the postseason: 95%.

Houston's remaining opponents' win percentage: .390

Oakland's remaining opponents' win percentage: .527

Seattle's remaining opponents' win percentage: .564

*MLB.com says that the Astros one goal for these last 13 games is to just get healthy. To that end, Justin Verlander could return for the last week of the season in a tune-up start for the postseason, and Lance McCullers is scheduled to start Wednesday against Arlington.

*Cristian Javier is getting some Rookie of the Year love.

*Chandler Rome: What happens to foul balls in an empty Minute Maid Park? If you're a season-ticket holder, you might start checking your mailbox.

*Jake Kaplan: Three big questions facing the Astros' pitching staff (and you can find an offer to subscribe to The Athletic for $1/month. I know I used to write for The Athletic, and they dropped me like 3rd Period French, but it's a really good deal.)

*If you love seeing Steve Sparks lose his ever-loving sht and Josh Reddick in a speedo, you're probably going to be very disappointed.

*If you're interested in knowing what Dave F. Roberts thinks about the Astros, you can listen to his interview with Jon Heyman and Tony Gwynn, Jr.

*You would be better off listening to me and Pat talk to ESPN's Jeff Passan for 42 minutes.

*The New York Post's Joel Sherman says that the postseason would be better if it didn't include the Astros and featured a Dodgers/Yankees World Series. Joel Sherman has unlocked the Legendary New Yorker level of journalism.

*SI's Tom Verducci busted up seven MLB myths you thought were true.

*Leeds United is currently at 31% to get relegated from the Premier League and, if you watched that Liverpool match on Saturday, you can join me in giving the most exaggerated of wanking motions towards Nate Silver.

*For the second known time in history, there are five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at the same time.

*"The Burning Forest Lit The Way"

*South Dakota's Attorney General reported that he hit a deer on Saturday night. A body - a human body - was discovered Sunday morning.

*A minor miscalculation cost Intel $500m. A minor miscalculation, by me, means I still have $17,000 of student loan debt 18 years after graduating from college and 14 years after graduating from grad school. So who's the real victim here.

*I have a lot of bad habits, and I'm trying to rectify all of those. This song helps, A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

I get Dodgers fans' frustration. It's hard to lose a World Series Game 7 at home. The Astros...actually showed some fight last night! Houston was up 1-0, then down 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 before scoring the last six runs of the game, including a 5-run 9th inning that led to a 7-5 win. Houston is 23-23 overall, and 7-17 on the road. Oakland split a double-header with Arlington. Seattle won.

*Dusty:

That was the win of the year. Hopefully, we look back on this as the turning point of our season.

*Framber Valdez: 5IP, 5H/5ER, 7K:1BB, 2HR. Jake Kaplan: What's different about Framber Valdez?

Bullpen: 4IP, 5H/0ER, 6K:0BB. 

Astros pitchers struck out 13 Dodgers and walked just one for the first time in 2020. They had 13+ Ks and 0-1 walks 16 times in 2019.

Josh James: 1.1IP, 0H/0ER, 0K:0BB, and he needed just 11 pitches to do it. 

*Kenley Jansen: 0.0IP, 5H/5R (4ER), 0K:0BB.

*Springer, Gurriel (3RBI), and Aledmys Diaz had two hits each. Springer:

We've obviously had a tough trip. This is the best team in baseball. It can be huge, but we're going to have to find out. I think we did a heck of a job of staying in the game. Even though we got down early, we stayed in the game and scratched and clawed and was able to pull it out.

*Ryan Pressly allowed two hits but no runs. He has made 18 appearances in 2020 and has allowed at least one baserunner in 12 of them.

*Martin Maldonado drew his 20th walk of the season, in just his 37th game. In 74 games in 2019, Maldonado drew 17 walks. This is the 4th-highest season walk total for Maldonado since his MLB career started in 2011, and he needs three more walks to tie his 2015 total.

*Chandler Rome: The comeback win provides hope for a turnaround.

*Dodgers fans greeted the Astros' bus with trash cans. Some incel hired a plane to fly over Dodger Stadium. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts:

I loved it. They have every right to do whatever they feel to express their feelings. Just shows the passion that Dodgers fans have. 

This is a terrible take, just from a legal standpoint.

*Altuve and Blake Taylor could return to the Astros in time for the next homestand. Justin Verlander threw again yesterday and could face live hitters in his next bullpen session. Lance McCullers got a shot to calm down an inflamed nerve in his elbow, and there's no timetable for his return.

*ESPN's Marly Rivera: Astros/Dodgers is about more than bad blood.

*How far will the Astros and Dodgers go in the postseason?

*Heads up, Gulf Coast (but probably not Texas).

*12 years ago last night Hurricane Ike made landfall over the eastern end of Galveston Island. I wrote a retrospective about how it impacted Houston, and the last chance for the Astros to contend until 2015. 

*Liverpool 4 Leeds United 3.

(Ed. Note: You're just going to have to get used to me ranting and raving about Leeds United. Scroll on past and go on about your day, if you're not into it.)

Leeds United played in the Premier League for the first time since May 15, 2004. Just to reinforce how long that's been: On May 15, 2004 the Astros enjoyed a 7-4 win over the Mets with Andy Pettitte getting the win and Octavio Dotel recording his 7th save of the season. Craig Biggio, Adam Everett, Jeff Kent, and Morgan Ensberg had two hits each. Andy Pettitte had an RBI. THAT'S how long it's been since Leeds played in the Premier League.

Liverpool allowed 16 Premier League goals in 19 games at Anfield. Leeds got three yesterday, scoring all goals in open play while Liverpool needed two penalty kicks and two goals off of corners to get the win. Leeds are back. You can read about why I'm a Leeds fan in this post I wrote back in April when the world was going to hell, and is still firmly #OnPace to reach it sooner rather than later. Leeds plays Hull in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, then it's Fulham (home of Former USMNT/Nacogdoches Great Clint Dempsey) next Saturday morning. 

*Looking forward to watching, at some distant point in time when I am actually able to do things for pleasure, Borgen.

*The Wealthy are screwing everyone else.

*RIP, Toots Hibbert. A Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

We can all complain as much as we want about the wacky extra-inning rules (God knows I did) but the Astros' offense was hot garbage last night. The Dodgers beat the Astros 4-2 in 13 innings last night. Houston is 3-3.

The Astros were 3x19 w/RISP and left 15 on base. That's unfathomably bad.

Kyle Tucker was 1x6 with 4K. The last Astro to strike out four times in a game was Kyle Tucker, on September 26, 2019.

Tucker-Altuve-Bregman combined to go 1x16.

Myles Straw was 1x5 with two stolen bases.

Cristian Javier looked really good: 5.2IP, 2H/1ER, 8K:1BB. Javier:
I felt good. I felt good and I was really focused on locating my pitches so I really didn't have time to think about nerves or anything like that. 

The bullpen threw 7.1IP, 3H/3R (1ER), 5K:2BB. Blake Taylor racked up 2.1IP, 1H/0ER, 3K:0BB.

Dusty Baker:
We had a number of opportunities. We just couldn't push the run across.

More Dusty:
You can't hit if you don't swing. Sometimes I think we can be a little more aggressive early in the count, especially with runners in scoring position, because they're going to try to get ahead of you and then mess with you.

Michael Brantley, who was 2x4 with a walk.
It's an adjustment period for everybody. George Springer, he's one of the best players in this game. He's gonna be just fine.

10% of the "season" is now over, presuming they actually play a full season. After 10% of the season:
Springer: .048/.200/.190
Altuve: .174/.321/.348
Bregman: .174/.321/.348 (not a typo)
Reddick: .182/.250/.364

*Houston made a trade with Baltimore, bringing in pitcher Hector Velazquez for a PTBNL in the first trade of James Click's tenure. Velazquez had spent the previous three seasons with the Red Sox. The first two went okay!

2017: 2.92 ERA / 4.20 xFIP
2018: 3.18 ERA / 4.63 xFIP
2019: 5.43 ERA / 5.46 xFIP

So luck sort of caught up with him in 2019, but he has MLB experience and is alive, so he is useful to the Astros' bullpen at present.

*PAB Joe Kelly was suspended for eight games for his errant throws near Bregman and Correa, and Dave Roberts was suspended for one game. Kelly appealed his suspension, Roberts served his one game last night. Dusty Baker was fined an undisclosed amount because the players broke COVID protocols by coming on to the field.

McCullers discusses Joe Kelly incident pic.twitter.com/cM2YnmNFmn

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 29, 2020

*ESPN's Dan Mullen: Inside the bench-clearing 6th Inning.

Ross Stripling on Joe Kelly’s performance last night: “The face that he made is one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen on a baseball field.”

Stripling said the #Dodgers will have t-shirts made with Kelly’s face on them.

— Jorge Castillo (@jorgecastillo) July 29, 2020

*Leaking bag of fecal matter Bill Plaschke: Joe Kelly earned his spot in Dodgers' lore.

*George Springer had the night off and Kyle Tucker replaced him at the top of the lineup. Kind of like a preview for 2021. Springer is "hitting" .050/.174/.200 with 5K:2BB in 23 PAs. In 2019 Springer struck out in 20.3% of his PAs, this year it's 21.7%. His one hit was a home run so officially Springer's BABIP is .000. That's...unsustainable. Dusty, on Springer:
George is struggling right now. I've been where he's been. It seems like there's eight infielders and about six or seven outfielders. It looks like there's a hole on the field and every time you get to the plate it's 0-2. Anybody that's played this game has been there before. This is more of a clear-your-head day and stop counting.

The Astros are off today, so Springer will have a couple of days to get right.

*Myles Straw had been dealing with a sore hamstring, which is why he only made his 2020 debut last night.

*Chandler Rome: Chris Devenski and Ryan Pressly aren't ready yet, but will travel to California.

*Check out Jake Kaplan's new mailbag, in which he discusses fallout from Verlander, Urquidy, Whitley, the outfield, the trade deadline, and Josh James.

*Former Astros Great Jake Marisnick was placed on the IL.

*The MLBPA is asking MLB to consider shortening double-headers.

seems important pic.twitter.com/M0UON7cUdr

— MLB Insider Chomper (@ec773) July 30, 2020

*Rob Manfred now has the ability to punish players for electronic sign-stealing, with video rooms basically on lockdown.

*Make that 16 members of the Miami Marlins who have tested positive.

*I saw That Thing You Do for the first time yesterday. The craziest thing to me is that they got Adam Schlesinger (RIP) and told him, "We need you to write the perfect pop song that people will hear multiple times in a 100-minute movie and not get infuriated." And he did.

*RIP, Malik B.

A Musical Selection:

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Well well well. It's going to be a really dumb time to be online. The Dodgers beat the Astros 5-2, getting all their runs in the 5th while the Astros got all their runs from Carlos Correa. Meanwhile, Joe Kelly - who was with the Red Sox in 2017 and 2018 - threw behind Alex Bregman and over Carlos Correa in the 6th, which led to the benches clearing. The Astros are 3-2. There are 55 games remaining, assuming the season is completed.

Joe Kelly, to Carlos Correa after a strikeout:
Nice swing, bitch.

Dave Roberts, on Kelly's intent:
I really don't know, to be quite honest. I know he got behind Bregman 3-0 and lost a fastball. I really don't think there was intent behind that. I think those guys took a little bit of offense. Even the one to Correa, that was a breaking ball that just backed up.

Dusty:
I didn't anticipate that. I didn't anticipate throwing over somebody's head three balls and no strikes. One of our more important guys. If you're going to throw at somebody, you don't throw at the head...That's playing dirty baseball.

It's fair to wonder about Joe Kelly's intent. We are talking about a guy with a 4.46 ERA in 2018 and 2019 who walked 54 batters. It could just be that Joe Kelly kind of sucks. Kelly said it wasn't intentional:
No. When I was with the Red Sox we beat them in '18. It's one of those things that I pitch competitively. With no fans here, it's easy to hear some stuff (from the opposing dugout)...there's something they apparently didn't take too kind to.

Joe Kelly's 96.4 MPH pitch to Alex Bregman for ball 4 pic.twitter.com/QHm8JX3ATA

— Daren Willman (@darenw) July 29, 2020

Anyway, should be a fun one tonight. On to the game:

Carlos Correa was (wink) a triple shy of the cycle, had three of the Astros' four hits, and both of the extra-base hits. It's the 26th time in Correa's career that he had three hits with a home run. It's the 18th time he got two extra-base hits in a game. Everyone else went 1x27 with 8Ks.

Framber Valdez threw 4.1IP, 4H/3R (2ER), 2K:1BB.
Enoli Paredes faced four batters and didn't record an out.
Andre Scrubb and Nivaldo Rodriguez made their MLB debuts, throwing 4.2 scoreless - though not uneventful (four hits, two strikeouts, three walks) - innings.

George Springer's slow start continued with an 0x4 to bring his five-game total to 1x20.

7-9 in the lineup (Reddick-Tucker/Toro-Maldonado) went a combined 0x11 with 7K:0BB.

Alex Bregman walked twice but committed two errors.

*The Astros went ahead and picked up Dusty Baker's option for 2021, as well as Brent Strom's and Gary Pettis' options for 2021.

I know everyone had the pipe dream that the Astros would go back to Hinch the day after the 2020 World Series, but this is really fair to Dusty, and it gives him what would appear to be a normal shot to win a World Series after a 162-game season. It's fair, and I have zero problem with it. It also guarantees that Dusty has a chance at 2000 wins - he's at 1,866.

Dusty:
I've been a lame-duck manager four or five times. I was one of the lamest ducks walking around. It feels pretty good not to be a lame duck. This is the best that I've been treated in quite a while.

*With the news that Devenski and Pressly have sore elbows, and that Joe Biagini was placed on the 10-Day IL, the Astros got some insurance in the form of 43-year old Fernando Rodney, pending a physical. Mark Berman says the Astros had scouts in Sugar Land to watch Bud Norris pitch. The injuries are stacking up.

*James Click said that Verlander will be shut down for "a few weeks" and that it's too soon to say whether or not he'll pitch again this season. He's also hopeful that Devenski and Pressly will be able to avoid the IL. Yordan is close to taking BP in Corpus, but there's not a timeline for him rejoining the Astros.

*Cristian Javier will start tonight's game. Javier reminds Brent Strom of Butch Metzger, because of course.

*Jake Kaplan: Five takeaways from the Astros-Mariners series.

*Boob Nightengale: Will the Dodgers try to avenge the 2017 World Series?

*The Nationals voted against going to Miami this weekend for a three-game series after four more Marlins tested positive. Miami's next game is next Tuesday. A normal thing, I suppose.

*SI: What's happening to the home run balls?

*Former Astros Great James Hoyt was DFAd by Cleveland.

*That time in 1984 when the Soviets pretended to be Klan members in an effort to ruin the Los Angeles Olympics.

*The Legend of Jacinto's Gold.

*A Musical Selection:

Best Offensive PreStros Seasons

In light of the monster season George Springer is having, I thought I'd go back and see how it stacks up against other great seasons in PreStros history. For this list, I tried to find every season in which a batter had at least 350 at bats and an OPS of at least 1.000.

George Springer

Springer, between AA Corpus and AAA Oklahoma City, is currently hitting .309/.410/.603 in 401 at bats with 57 extra base hits (25, 3, 29) and 36 stolen bases. He also has 63 walks and 137 strikeouts. He came into the season as Baseball America's #37 prospect and MLB.com's #58 prospect.

Jose Altuve

Altuve received 357 at bats between A+ Lancaster and AA Corpus in 2011 before getting the call to Houston. He hit .389/.426/.591 with 42 extra base hits (22, 10, 10) and 24 stolen bases along with 26 walks and 40 strikeouts. He was not on any preseason prospect lists heading into 2011. For his major league career so far, Altuve is hitting .285/.326/.379 in about two full season worth of at bats.

Koby Clemens

A perfect example of the Lancaster Effect, in 2009 Clemens hit .341/.415/.620 in 440 at bats with 54 walks and 111 strikeouts, including a couple weeks at Corpus at the end of the year. He totaled 73 extra base hits (45, 6, 22 ) with 123 RBI. Clemens was not ranked on any prospect lists coming into that season. Clemens never reached the majors and is currently playing for the independent Atlantic League Sugar Land Skeeters, where he is tied for 5th in the league in home runs with former Astro Daryle Ward.

Jason Lane

In 2001, Lane spent the entire season at AA Round Rock. In 526 at bats, he hit .316/.407/.608 with 76 extra base hits (36, 2, 38) with 61 walks and 98 strikeouts. He also added 14 steals, 103 runs, and 124 RBI. He was not ranked heading into the season, but Baseball American named him their #53 prospect going into the next season. Lane went on to hit .241/.314/.457 in parts of six seasons, all with Houston with the exception of 3 games with San Diego in 2007. He's currently attempting to come back as a pitcher with San Diego.

Keith Ginter

Ginter got 462 at bats with AA Round Rock in 2000 and hit .333/.457/.580 with 59 extra base hits (30, 3, 26). He also had 24 stolen bases and 108 runs to go along with 82 walks and 127 strikeouts. Ginter went on to spend parts of six season in the majors, including two full seasons with Milwaukee, and hit .243/.329/.422 for his major league career.

Mitch Melusky

In 1998, Melusky received 397 at bats with AAA New Orleans and hit .353/.465/.584 with 58 extra base hits (41, 0, 17) and 85 walks with 59 strikeouts. He was not ranked heading into the season, but after the season Baseball America had him as the #43 prospect. He showed promise in the majors before injuries derailed his career. In 414 major league at bats, Melusky hit .283/.368/.449 with 15 home runs and finished fifth in rookie of the year voting in 2000.

Ed Whited

In 1987, his first full minor league season, Whited hit .323/.407/.598 in 440 at bats for A Asheville. He had 65 extra base hits (37, 0, 28) with 12 steals and 128 RBI. In a late season call-up with the Braves in 1990, Whited hit .162/.222/.243 in 36 games, then abruptly disappeared from baseball.

Rich Johnson

Splitting the 1986 season between A Asheville and A Osceola, Johnson hit .341/.424/.581 in 504 at bats with 61 extra base hits (30, 2, 29). He had 72 walks, 105 strikeouts, and 112 RBI.  He never made it above AA and was out of baseball following the 1988 season.

Ty Gainey

Gainey received 359 at bats for AAA Tucson in 1986. He hit .351/.437/.616 with 50 extra base hits (22, 11, 17) with 55 walks, 81 strikeouts, and 19 steals. In 111 major league at bats across three seasons, Gainey hit .216/.293/.288.

Gary Rajsich

Rajsich got 445 at bats for AAA Tucson in 1980 and hit .321/.435/.575 with 57 extra base hits (22, 14, 21) with 87 walks and just 41 strikeouts. In 296 major league at bats across four seasons, Rajsich hit .236/.328/.345.

Honorable Mention

Two others met my criteria, but did so over the age of 30, so I didn't include them here. They were Dave Roberts at AAA Oklahoma City in 1965 and Len Tucker at C Modesto in 1962.

Hunter Pence came as close as you can to meeting my criteria when he hit .327/.400/.598 in 453 at bats between A Lexington and A+ Salem in 2005.

Most of these examples were done at lower minor league levels, and none combine Springer's speed and power combination. This was a fun exercise, but I don't think much can be learned from it, except to say that monster minor league seasons don't have any real correlation to major league success, at least for former PreStros.