*The World Series, which they're still playing for some reason, is tied 1-1. Game 3 is in Arizona tonight. FanGraphs has it Six Flags 52.2 - 47.8 Arizona.
*I watched "Race to the Summit" on Netflix. It's about speed-climbing crazy-ass mountains without ropes and whatnot. It's subtitled. Any of the preceding may be disqualifying for you, but I liked it.
It was probably the quickest four years I've ever spent in my life. But that's what happens when you win. They were winning when I got here, winning while I was here and I wish them well.
Jim Crane, to Dusty:
You came in and helped us when we needed some help, and you did a great job. And I think you are the only guy that can do that in the business. You did a fantastic job, and the record speaks for itself. You will be missed, I know the players will miss you...You're a great guy and a great friend and thank you very much for what you did.
That leaves us with the following names, in alphabetical order:
Brad Ausms, Jeff Bannister, Craig Counsell, Joe Espada, Joe Girardi, Andy Green, Mark Kotsay, Rodney Linares, Omar Lopez, Joe Maddon, Don Mattingly, Buck Showalter, Will Venable, Walt Weiss, Eric Young, Sr.
Ready for a break from the gah dang Houston Astros? TOO BAD. There's news.
*There's a Press Conference today at 11am at Minute Maid Park, presumably to announce the retirement of Dusty Baker. Last night I wrote up some thoughts about Dusty Baker's tenure with the Astros, and ended with a Barry Switzer quote in reference to Jim Crane, which was predictably (and this is likely some fault of my own, since I was very tired and just wanted to go to bed and didn't explain it very well) misinterpreted. The "he was born on third base and thought he hit a triple" has nothing to do with Jim Crane's net worth. It has everything to do with Jim Crane tried to "do the off-season" by himself, or at least with the help of Jeff Bagwell and/or Reggie Jackson, forgetting that it was Teh Nerds who turned the Astros into an absolute powerhouse, and the increasing likelihood that the next few hires (manager, President of Baseball Ops?) will simply do what Jim Crane wants, and not what The Spreadsheets 'n' Formulas say. That's all I meant by that. I'm not going back and changing it.
*Chandler Rome has 12 names to keep an eye on as the next Astros manager. Click the link and subscribe The Athletic for the full write-up, because it's a pretty good value, but here are the 12 names:
Brad Ausmus (who interviewed to be the GM before Crane hired Dana Brown), Craig Counsell, Joe Espada, Mark Kotsay (who previously interviewed before the Astros landed Dusty), Rodney Linares (former Astros minor-league manager), Omar Lopez, Joe Maddon, Don Mattingly, Buck Showalter, Will Venable, Walt Weiss, and Eric Young.
Based on personal preference alone, I'm striking Ausmus, Kotsay, Maddon, and Showalter from consideration. Joe Espada has been the manager-in-waiting for so long you could be accused of thinking Will Muschamp was the Astros' bench coach, so I'd like to see him be rewarded for his loyalty. Love the idea of bringing in Rodney Linares, who has worked under Kevin Cash in Tampa as well as spending a generation in the Astros' organization managing pretty much every homegrown star currently on the roster. I'm still pissed about 1999 NLDS Game 3 when it comes to Walt Weiss (obligatory "I Was There" tweet).
The Mets have asked for, and received, permission to talk to Craig Counsell. Remember Former Astros & Brewers Great David Stearns is now running the show in Queens. Cleveland has asked, as well.
*Sports Illustrated notes the possibility of Joe Girardi managing the Astros. And also adds Six Flags' Offensive Coordinator Donnie Ecker, and Ron Washington.
*Ben Verlander: The Astros' dynasty isn't over, but they need to take a hard look in the mirror.
*The Astros claimed reliever Oliver Ortega off waivers from the Twins. Ortega just turned 27 and has 58IP under his belt with the Angels and Twins with a career 4.03 ERA / 1.41 WHIP. He made ten appearances for the 2023 Twins and enjoyed scoreless outings in seven of them. Statcast notes that he has an arsenal of five pitches (though he really only uses four), and his four-seam fastball averages 95.3mph with a 95.7mph sinker (!).
*Richard Justice: A High School Football Fairy Tale Is Unfolding in Willis.
Astros manager Dusty Baker apparently told Jim Crane this afternoon (Wednesday, October 25) that he is retiring. A press conference will be held on Thursday at noon at Minute Maid Park. Dusty:
I'm very grateful and thankful to Jim Crane and the Houston Astros for giving me this opportunity, and to win a championship. I felt like they've been good for me, and I've been good for them. What I really appreciate is that Jim has been totally honest and transparent with me on all things.
Dusty would like to remain in an advisory role, either with the Astros or with a team closer to his home in Sacramento.
Some of the many highlights from his resume:
-7th all-time in managerial wins, with 2183.
-8th all-time in games managed, with 4046.
-4th all-time in postseason wins, with 57 (a Rangers' World Series win next week would bring Bruce Bochy level with him).
-4th all-time in playoff appearances, with 13.
-His .540 managerial win% is 18th among managers with at least 2000 games in the dugout.
-In his four seasons with the Astros, Dusty posted a 320-226 regular season record. His 546 games with the Astros are the 7th-most by an Astros manager in franchise history.
-His 320 wins are 6th-most in franchise history. And his .586 win% is 2nd-best among managers who managed more than one game, just behind A.J. Hinch's .594 win%.
-He was 34-19 as manager of the Astros in the postseason, a .642 win%, by far the best postseason winning percentage in Astros history (A.J. Hinch was 22-12 in the postseason).
Dusty is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, on track to be the first Black manager to be inducted in Cooperstown in three years.
And here's the thing: nobody at the end of the 2019 season expected Dusty Baker to manage the Astros at all, let alone for the next four years. The exposure of the Trash Can Scandal threw the lifelong tenure of A.J. Hinch with the Astros out the window, 63 wins shy of tying Bill Virdon for the franchise lead.
But the Trash Can Scandal did happen, much as we would like to forget it (and as much as we would like everyone else to, as well). We won't, and neither will They. So Jim Crane did the right thing and fired Hinch.
1. They need someone who is well-respected (by the media and General Baseball People, anyway - your complaints were heard loud and clear)...
2. They need someone who has managed in a variety of situations... 3. They need someone who can handle A Circus...
...Columnists across [puts hand across forehead] the land are going to love it because their hand-wringing, and bringing blood out of a turnip, will easily provide that week's Column. But then they have to deal with Dusty Baker, whom pretty much everyone loves except for you, who gets their narrative from FanGraphs. Their hearts will melt. It's an organizational rehab assignment, for a year, and the best-case scenario is that the Astros (and by that I of course mean Us) and Dusty Baker gets their ring in 2020. Winning a World Series like this, in this year, with this much hate, would be delicious, and the scrutiny would cleanse it. Yankee and Dodger Fan would move the goalposts, to be sure. But it would be sweeter than the first (I think).
That second ring came a couple of years after, but the point is still valid.
The team is sullied by scandal but still set to contend for a title. Its image and reputation remain in ruins. Players will endure eight months of invective from opposing crowds and players. Baker arrives as a slice of serenity amid acrimony, a man who Crane hopes can galvanize an Astros clubhouse still searching for a way forward.
He did all that. Dusty guided this team through those first few years. The vitriol is still there - but the vitriol also is a testament to how much the Astros have won (and who they've beaten) in the last seven years. I understand why other fans hate the Astros, and why the Trash Can Scandal keeps getting brought up. I still make "Change Your Password!" jokes about the Cardinals. It's never going to go away, no matter how many times you can point them to Tony Adams' website. There's absolutely no point in getting upset about it.
Dusty Baker managed 4046 games and played in 2039 more. That's 162 games...37.5 times over. Dusty earned the right to go out on his own terms. He got his ring, and with another loaded roster in 2023 (before we all watched Jose Abreu not hit water if he fell out of a boat for three months), it's understandable why he would want to see if he could run it back for a first-in-a-generation repeat.
You can rightfully question some of the decisions that Dusty made throughout the 2023 season: insisting on Martin Maldonado over Yainer Diaz, and hating Chas McCormick for some reason (banana pudding aside). In my heart of hearts I truly believe that Dusty loved pretty much everyone on that team, and in the end it may have bit him in the ass, particularly in managing Game 7 of the ALCS like there was a Game 8 two days later. Dusty's Magic is designed to work over a 162 game season. Not so much when the season is on the line in the next 10 minutes.
But now that Dusty is stepping aside - allegedly - it's time that Jim Crane remembers his roots. He let Jeff Luhnow run the show based on analytics and look what happened. Crane gets the credit of the work of analysts who "never played the game." Jeff Bagwell and Jim Crane gave Rafael Montero $39m.
Allowing Jeff Bagwell to have a hand in choosing the next manager is extremely concerning because it betrays the very principles this Dynasty (and, yes, it's a dynasty) was founded upon. What I fear for this organization is extremely eloquently summed up by My Buddy Mike. My fear is that Jim Crane can be adequately characterized by Barry Switzer (BOOMER) in that he was born on third base and thought he hit a triple.
I don't care who wins the NLCS, I will be their biggest fan for the next two weeks, despite the fact that I'll likely not watch a minute of the World Series. This is a time for resetting, for reacquaintance, for recharging. More at the end.
To the Links:
*Only two teams in MLB history have lost all four home games in a seven-game series: the 2019 Astros and the 2023 Astros. As much as I hate the Rangers right now, I might hate the Astros just as much.
*Chas McCormick, who got 16 plate appearances in seven games in the ALCS:
I mean, we just didn't play well enough at home. That's what finished our season. We didn't win at home. Game 5, when we came back and won, I was like, 'We have this. We're going back to the World Series.' It's a different taste in the mouth just because I've been in the World Series my first two years in the big leagues, so it's different.
Martin Maldonado, who went 1x7 with runners in scoring position in the ALCS:
It's frustrating, but at the same time, I feel like we accomplished a lot of stuff. It wasn't easy all year. We had a lot of injuries. I'm really proud of this group of guys. We never gave up. Just to make it seven in a row, it's pretty special.
Jeremy Pena, who hit .160/.192/.160 in the ALCS:
I wouldn't consider [this season] a success.
Kyle Tucker, who hit .150/.292/.225 in the 2023 postseason, 0x6 w/RISP in the 2023 ALCS, and .180/.295/.326 in 24 games in the 2022-23 postseasons combined:
We had a good year, a lot of ups and downs throughout the season. And we at least had the opportunity to get there.
There's a whole bunch of stuff you can point to in that ballgame. And so we just got beat. Sometimes there's no rhyme or reason. Sometimes you lose and sometimes you get beat. There's a difference. We got beat.
*Dusty Baker is going to take some time to evaluate his situation for 2024:
I haven't had time to evaluate or think about my future because I'm not that kind of dude. I don't want to steal the spotlight or anything from these guys. You've got to savor what we did. You've got to think about how we can get better. And then I'll evaluate my situation and my life.
*Alex Bregman, who only had four hits in the ALCS but included a triple and two home runs:
I think we fully expected to be here, and we expected to win. We got outplayed, and we'll learn from the mistakes this offseason. We'll get after it and be ready to get back to competing.
Justin Verlander, who allowed 12H/6ER in 12.1IP in the ALCS:
I think moving forward, there's still a good window available. It's a little early to say I'm excited about next year (Ed. note: SAME) I'm still dealing with this, but that was on my mind.
*Career Postseason Home Runs, MLB History:
1. Manny Ramirez: 29
2. Jose Altuve: 27
3. Bernie Williams: 22
4. Derek Jeter / Kyle Schwarber: 20
6. Alex Bregman / Albert Pujols / George Springer: 19
*Yordan Alvarez, 2023 Postseason: .465/.510/.977, 6HR/15RBI. Yordan's 41st career postseason RBI moved him into a tie for 18th all-time with Lance Berkman and Alex Rodriguez. His .949 career postseason OPS is 5th all-time among players with 50 postseason games played.
*I had completely forgotten that The Bastard Chris Young threw 4IP in G1 of the 2015 ALDS for the Royals. I don't think I've ever hated another team's GM more, and I hope his bicycle gets stuck in a cattle grate and skins up his knee real bad.
What To Watch, October 24:
2:00pm Central: Champions League: Arsenal at Sevilla.
6:15pm: New Jersey at Montreal
7:07pm: DiamondBacks at Phillies.
*Please allow me a moment of introspection and vulnerability: 51 days ago I decided to stop drinking, which is my personal longest streak since the day I was born until the day I turned 21. It was enough of a problem that I recognized it as a problem. It was not recommended by a doctor (mainly because I don't go to the doctor), it was a personal choice. The first few days were really hard. There were certain triggers around particular days of the week and work milestones and whatnot that I recognized were particularly difficult. Still, I made it through with the help of my wife, a couple of friends who are various stages of their sobriety journey, and a lot of mineral water. I didn't want me opening a beer to be the soundtrack of my kid's childhood. I didn't want to have anxiety about what time I got home in the evenings based on when I could have a drink. It hasn't been easy. It still isn't easy, but I'm not fragile. This weekend I'll go to the wedding of one of my best friends (who happens to be a Ramger fan despite not being able to name three Ramgers on the active roster) armed with a six pack of HEB Lime Mineral Water, and it'll be fine. I feel better, I eat better, I can actually feel rested after sleeping, and get up and go to the gym. I was emotionally dependent on alcohol, and probably will continue to feel that way for a while, but I'm doing fine. If I can make it through an Astros postseason - especially this absolute pile of dogshit of a postseason - without drinking, I feel like I'm invincible. I don't know why I'm telling any of you this, but if you feel like you're in a similar circumstance or vortex or whatever you want to call it, feel free to reach out. FTR.
Ahem. Now we have a rivalry. The Astros won Game 5, 5-4. It was the Astros' 7th straight postseason road win, their last postseason road loss coming in 2022 World Series Game 3, the "Let McCullers Get Shelled and Then Throw A No-Hitter" game.
9th Inning - Jose Altuve 3-run homer: 82.9% Astros
9th Inning - Mitch Garver single: 65.2% Astros
9th Inning - Jonah Heim single: 53.2% Rangers
9th Inning - Evan Carter strikeout: 100.0% Astros
*Let's talk about that Adolis Garcia HBP:
-Did Adolis Garcia pimp his three-run homer in the 6th? Absolutely! Did he have every right to do that? For sure! I would still be moonwalking between 1st and 2nd base if I had hit that home run, which was actually Adolis Garcia's 100th career home run. That home run was massive. Absolutely no issue with Garcia slamming the bat down and yelling.
-Did Abreu try to hit him? Obviously I'm biased. I've spent a number of years referring to the Rangers as being located in a different random Metroplex suburb. I hate that team. That said, there is absolutely no reason to hit Adolis Garcia. Evan Carter was on 1st base after Abreu walked him. It was 4-2 Rangers, and the Astros had three outs to play with before having to go back to Minute Maid Park needing to win both games to win the Pennant. I'm sure the Astros have won back-to-back home games in 2023...but I can't quite remember when. (September 9-10 vs San Diego).
-What I'm trying to say is that intentionally hitting Garcia would be the height of stupidity. Garcia had woken up the World's Largest Storage Unit already, there would be no reason to fan the flames. I think Abreu was trying to blow an fastball by him. There were 0 outs. Maybe get a GIDP.
-I also understand why Garcia was pissed off. If someone hit me with a 97mph fastball you would see my soul ascend (I'm assuming I'm going to Heaven) on a cloud, playing a harp. There wouldn't even be dental records, such would be my demise.
-Shoutout to Dusty Baker for actually getting out of the dugout and putting his finger in one the faces of this awful umpiring crew. Dusty: "I haven't been that mad in a long time."
-Altuve's homer got Marvin Hudson off the hook for what was an absolutely God-awful job behind the plate. I didn't know Dusty had it in him. It also got Altuve off the hook for trying to bunt with Tucker on second base.
-Ultimately Garcia's outburst may have actually cost the Ramgers that game. He iced LeClerc, which is French for "The Clerc," for 11 minutes after he got Michael Brantley to juuuust get under one to end the inning with Kyle Tucker on second base. LeClerc's 9th Inning: Walk, Walk, Homer (then some outs).
I was concerned about that delay. I really was. It as a long one. It was taking too long, to be honest. The whole thing is a bunch of crap, to be honest, what happened there. Who knows what intentions are, but it's not the first time it's happened, and couldn't get the game going again.
LeClerc:
I'm not used to waiting around that long to pitch again, but it's no excuse. I needed to execute my pitches and do a better job.
That doesn't happen if Adolis Garcia just walks to first.
-But if Abreu did it on purpose, then he's dumb as hell and deserved to get tossed. And suspended.
Verlander made one bad pitch. That pitch also moved Verlander out of a tie with Clayton Kershaw for the 2nd-most postseason home runs allowed and past Andy Pettitte's 31 playoff homers and into sole possession of most postseason home runs allowed, at 32.
Of the 32 postseason home runs Verlander has now allowed, 19 have come with the Astros. That breakdown:
Solo: 13
2-Run: 3
3-Run: 3
Grand Slams: 0
It's the 9th time Verlander has allowed 2HR in a postseason game, and the 6th time it's happened with the Astros, who are now 2-4 in postseason games in which Verlander gives up 2HR.
*Jordan Montgomery vs Houston, ALCS: 11.2IP, 10H/2ER, 9K:3BB.
*Shoutout to Yainer Diaz, who got his first career postseason hit.
*Shoutout to Jon Singleton, who drew a walk that became the tying run in his first plate appearance since October 1. Singleton:
You put in the hard work, and you stay ready so you don't have to get ready. That's been my motto so far this year.
*Jose LeClerc had only allowed 23 homers in 302.1 career IP. He had given up 5HR in the 2023 regular season. Only one of those career home runs had more than one on base - a grand slam to Julio Rodriguez on July 15, 2022. And then came Jose Altuve.
*Jose Altuve hit his 26th career postseason home run to record his 54th career postseason RBI. It was his first multi-RBI game since 2021 ALCS G2. Altuve had 3RBI in his previous 25 postseason games combined. Listen to Robert Ford's call of the home run.
I know everybody is talking about the homer. But if you go and see Diaz's base hit and then Singleton's walk, especially when he hasn't played in a lot of days...coming from the bench facing probably one of the best closers right now in the playoffs, I think the key was these two guys and to be able to score all those runs.
*Alex Bregman's 18th career postseason home run moves him into a tie for 3rd in franchise history with Carlos Correa. He needs one more to tie George Springer for 2nd.
*Kyle Tucker got two hits in a postseason game since 2022 World Series Game 1.
*It was Ryan Pressly's first career postseason six-out save, and just the 2nd six-out save of his career.
Doing this tonight so I have time to do something else in the morning. Nothing has changed in the FanGraphs Playoff Odds. Here's what else is going on in and around the Astros...
*Justin Verlander will start Game 1 on Saturday at 3:45pm, Framber Valdez will start Game 2 on Sunday at 7:03pm. We don't know who starts Game 3, but it will be Tuesday in Minneapolis at 3:07pm.
Verlander, career, ALDS Game 1: 23.1IP, 21H/12ER, 25K:11BB
This is clouded, somewhat, by his 2022 ALDS G1, in which he gave up 10H/6ER, 3K:1BB in 4IP against Seattle - the game that Yordan walked off when the Mariners hilariously threw Robbie Ray.
Nobody gave them a chance to beat Toronto, I don't think. They've got good pitching, they've got good defense, they've got a number of left-handed hitters, which poses a problem. They've got a good manager. I mean, they're a good team.
*Minnesota's Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon are enjoying the Twins' ride, despite just sitting there wanting to play. Click the link for other notes from Minneapolis.
*The Ringer: Inside the Ugly Standoff Between James Harden and Daryl Morey.
*Rolling Stone: The 50 Best Latin American Rock Albums
*In the wake of Kevin McCarthy's historic ousting as Speaker of the House of Representatives, I took a look at the last time the House tried to body-check the Speaker (all the way back in 1910).
The Homestros struck again. After almost literally destroying the Rangers' will earlier in the week, the Astros reminded the fans to not get too excited. I'd like them to figure it out. Houston is 80-62 in 2023 - 35-35 at home. More on that in a minute. The Mariners and Rangers also lost. Toronto won.
I know how good they are and I know how I've done against them in the past and I knew what I needed to do today. Definitely happy with how I pitched today.
Houston at home, All-Star Break to August 13: 7-4
August 14-since, Houston, at Minue Maid Park: 2-9.
Houston has lost six straight games at home. Last 11 games at home:
Yainer Diaz: .395/.409/.698
Alex Bregman: .333/.429/.500
Mauricio Dubon: .321/.345/.536
Yordan Alvarez: .296/.474/.296
Jeremy Pena: .282/.333/.410
Jose Altuve: .237/.275/.263
Chas McCormick: .222/.243/.389
Jose Abreu: .167/.250/.444
Martin Maldonado: .160/.160/.320
Kyle Tucker: .156/.194/.281
Yordan, Altuve, and Tucker have combined for three extra-base hits in their last 11 home games.
*Houston Astros, Away, 2023: .268/.339/.462, 118 home runs.
Houston Astros, Home, 2023: .251/.325/.407, 78 home runs.
*Astros home runs at Balch Springs, September 4-6, 2023: 16
Astros home runs at Minute Maid, August 1-present: 16
*Chandler Rome: What's up with the home record? The batter's eye may be to blame.
*Kyle Tucker was 0x4. Since his 3HR game on July 21, Tucker: .253/.359/.474. He has one home run in his last 73 PAs, last night was his 10th straight game without a home run, and six straight without an extra-base hit.
So that's 12 starts of 15 outs or fewer (and each of his last five starts) and 15 starts of 16 outs or more. Maldonado:
I think he threw a couple good innings. I feel like maybe he was rushing a little bit with men on base, trying to be quicker to the plate. I feel like that's when he lost kind of the strike zone. A couple unlucky hits that they got, especially in the second inning.
Expected Batting Average, base hits, Padres, 2nd Inning:
Obviously, it's really frustrating. I thought I made some good pitches there...To Grisham, I thought I made a pretty good pitch. It was probably two inches away from falling in Pena's glove. I think all that kind of stuff compounded and they were able to put four runs up.
They did it. They eclipsed the 2017 Harvey Revenge Series, beating the absolute piss out of the Pride-less Rangers in three straight games. Houston is 80-61, the first AL West team to reach 80 wins (an accomplishment the 2023 A's should achieve no later than July 2024).
*The Astros have won eight of their last eleven games. They're 20-8 in road games since the All-Star Break. The last MLB team to score 39+ runs in three consecutive games was...the Houston Astros, all the way back from August 26-28, 2023.
*10.3% of the Rangers' home losses in 2023 came in the last 72 hours. Dusty:
It really wasn't about making a statement. It was more about winning games and trying to get into first place. You love to see your offense come alive like that. We got some good pitching performances. We played an excellent series.
Bruce Bochy:
Obviously, it was not a good series, wasn't a lot we did well. We just didn't execute pitches, left a lot up throughout the series and we paid for it...They put it to us, and there's no getting around that.
The Astros eclipsed the Harvey Revenge Series of September 2017. In that series, the Astros collected 37 runs on 46 hits - 11 doubles and six home runs. This series, the Astros collected 39 runs on 50 hits - seven doubles and 16 home runs.
The 16 home runs in three games are the 2nd-most in a 3-game span in MLB history, behind the 19 that the 2020 Yankees hit against Toronto in September 2020. Only four other teams hit 16 home runs in a three-game series: the 2023 Astros (just now), the 2019 Nationals, 2019 Yankees, and 1977 Red Sox. The 2023 Astros and 2019 Yankees were the only ones to do it on the road against the same opponent.
*Most runs in a game, single-team, Globe Life Field's history:
1. 18 - by Pantego vs Oakland: Apr 22, 2023
2. 16 - by Pantego vs Philadelphia: April 1, 2023; by Pantego vs Seattle: June 3, 2023; by Los Angeles vs Pantego, July 22, 2023;
5. 15 - by Pantego vs New York, April 30, 2023; by Houston vs Pantego, September 13, 2021
7. 14 - by Houston vs Pantego, Sept. 4, 2023; by Oakland vs Pantego, July 12, 2022; by San Diego vs Pantego, August 17, 2020.
10. 13 - by Houston vs Pantego, Sept. 5, 2023; by Pantego vs Colorado, May 21, 2023; by Pantego vs Houston, August 29, 2021; by Oakland by Pantego, June 22, 2021.
*Jose Abreu was 2x3 with a grand slam and a 3-run homer. The three-run shot left his bat at 113.3mph, his hardest-hit ball of 2023. His 7RBI tie a career-high, also set at Minnesota on September 4, 2016 and against Detroit on September 12, 2020. It's the 20th multi-HR game of his career. Abreu:
If there's one person here that gets impressed by what this team can do, it's me because I'm new here. I think that this organization, these guys, when the lights are shining bright, they know how to handle things, they know how to do things well. I'm just very grateful to be part of this, as well.
*Yordan Alvarez was 1x3 with 2BB, 2RBI, and his 25th homer of the year. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Yordan is hitting a home run every 16.5 Plate Appearances.
*Michael Brantley was 2x3 with a homer and 2RBI. Brantley has played in six games in 2023, three of them have been 2-hit games.
*Chas McCormick managed to talk his way into a PA in a blowout and responded by hitting his 20th home run of the season. He had an RBI in all three games of the Rangers series. McCormick has an eight-game hit streak in which he's hitting .375/.432/.563. He has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games.
Chas McCormick has 384 PAs. Only four centerfielders have a higher fWAR than McCormick's 3.8 fWAR:
1. Julio Rodriguez: 5.5 fWAR (612 PAs).
2. Corbin Carroll: 5.2 fWAR (552 PAs).
3. Luis Robert, Jr.: 5.1 fWAR (538 PAs).
4. Cody Bellinger: 4.2 fWAR (463 PAs).
Chas McCormick leads all MLB CFs with a 147 wRC+. Please find a way to play this man every day.
*Jeremy Pena was 2x6 with a double. It's his 4th straight multi-hit game. Since August 1, Pena is hitting .339/.413/.449.
*Justin Verlander: 7IP, 4H/2R (1ER), 6K:1BB. It's the 133rd start of Verlander's career in which he has thrown at least 7IP and been charged with 0-1 Earned Runs. It's the 31st time he's done it in an Astros jersey. Verlander:
As a starting pitcher, your job is to carry the momentum. Our offense made it pretty easy on us this series.
Verlander vs. Scherzer last night was the first time that opposing starting pitchers had 3,000 career strikeouts since Schilling vs Clemens on September 16, 2007.
Other Stuff
*Chandler Rome has a pretty electrifying piece in The Athletic, in which it is learned that the front office shares the fans' frustration with the number of Chas-less lineups. Rome:
This week, four people with knowledge of the team's inner workings said that McCormick's weight has become a talking point for Baker.
Chas:
I like being this heavy. I guess if I was a little lighter it'd be easier, bit easier to move a little bitter. I feel stronger. I feel healthier. I feel I can do more being at 220. Usually I'm at 216. When I'm 210, I'm too light. I was 214 last year, I think, and I felt too light again. I kind of like being where I'm at right now, at 220.
It's weird.
*The Ringer: The AL West is MLB's last great hope for an interesting division race.
Chas McCormick swept the Cleveland Guardians 3-2. Houston is 62-47, and sit 0.5 games back in the AL West. Since losing five straight games from June 15-19, the Astros are 23-13. That is the best record in the American League by 1.5 games.
*The win improves the Astros' record against the AL Central to 11-11, mainly thanks to going 3-7 against the Tigers and Twins.
*Cleveland scored five runs in the three-game series, the fewest number of runs allowed in a three-game series since May 26-28, 2023, when Oakland scored three runs in three games.
*Yordan Alvarez was 2x4 with a double. In the six games since his return from an oblique injury, Yordan is hitting .409/.480/.773.
*Alex Bregman was 2x2 with two walks, getting on base four times for the 7th time in 2023.
*Yainer Diaz also went 2x4, enjoying a 2-hit game for the third time in his last four games. Since the All-Star Break, Diaz is hitting .326/.360/.587.
*After going 0x3 yesterday, Corey Julks is now hitless in his last 36 PAs.
*Ronel Blanco: 4IP, 5H/2ER, 3K:4BB. Blanco has made seven starts for the Astros in 2023, and allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of them. The Astros are 3-4 in those starts. Blanco was optioned to Sugar Land after the game for the fourth time this season. One more option before he has to be placed on waivers first.
*Parker Mushinski, since the All-Star Break: 4 appearances, 5.1IP, 4H/1ER, 5K:1BB.
*Hector Neris has appeared in 48 games for the 2023 Astros, and hasn't allowed a hit in 23 of them. He hasn't allowed a baserunner in 14 of those games.
*Dusty Baker won his 2,155th game as a manager in 3,993rd game. He's three wins shy of tying Hall of Famer Bucky Harris for 7th all-time, and 39 wins short of passing Sparky Anderson for 6th all-time.
*Houston's rotation this weekend is a little up in the air with the arrivals of Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy.
*How ESPN went from Disney's financial engine to its main problem.
Well huh. That was an interesting one. Still, all's well that ends well except that NO IT'S NOT. Everyone is either Mad At Dusty, or Mad At Whoever Is Mad At Dusty, so that's what we're doing today. The Astros won a humdrum pre-holiday game against East Aledo, 12-11. Houston is 47-38, three games back, and have won six of their last eight games.
But we'll get to that in a second, I have a formula here.
I'll take it. You still think about the game we didn't have in LA...But we rebounded from that tough loss. I'm glad we didn't have another tough loss today, because we've had probably a dozen tough losses. But this team's very resilient.
It was huge. They're a good team, and they're in first place in our division. Being able to come in and get three games out of them is huge. We've got to go home and finish out the first half strong.
*The Astros have two against Colorado starting tonight, and four against Seattle. The Rangers have three at Boston and have three at Washington before the All-Star Break.
*On June 30, the day the Rangers series started, the Astros were at 32.9% to win the AL West. Now it's 38.2%, which is not nearly as dramatic as I was expecting.
*The Astros have scored 5+ runs in each of their last six wins. They've scored 10+ runs in three of their last six games.
*The scoring for the Astros and Rangers in the first three games of the series: 12-11 Astros. The final score in the final game of the series: 12-11 Astros.
*Seven of the Astros' 13 hits were for extra-bases. The four home runs were the most in a game since June 13, when they hit four against the Nationals. It's the 5th time the Astros have hit four home runs in a game in 2023, and four of those games were on the road. Houston is 6-0 when they hit 3+ home runs in a game.
*Houston topped out at 98.2% to win the game after Jose Abreu's homer made it 10-2, before it was, you know, 100%. The Rangers were at 85.5% to win after Corey Seager's sac fly put the Rangers ahead.
*Kyle Tucker was 4x4 with a grand slam and an HBP. After an 0x10 stretch from June 19-21, Tucker has a 10-game hitting streak in which he's hitting .436/.511/.846, with four doubles, four homers, and 14 RBI. Houston's eight grand slams lead the Majors.
*Jose Abreu was 2x4 with a double, home run, and 4RBI. On this road trip, Abreu played in nine games and hit .378/.390/.730. Seven of his 14 hits went for extra bases (4 doubles, 3 homers). Abreu's homer was his 250th career home run. He's the 17th active player in MLB with 250 home runs.
*Chas McCormick was 2x5 with a home run, double, and two crucial RBI. He had the game-winning hit for the second game in a row. The "who should be playing CF" debate is officially over.
*Cristian Javier: 4.1IP, 9H/8ER, 4K:0BB. After his June 15 start against Washington, Javier was at a 2.90 ERA / 1.04 WHIP. In his last three starts: 10.2IP, 21H/18ER, 6K:6BB. His ERA has risen to 4.34 in the last three starts. Javier recorded 18 outs in nine of his first 14 starts of the season, and hasn't gotten out of the 5th in his last three.
*NOW: the decision to leave Javier in to start the 5th Inning caused a meltdown on the burning hellscape of Twitter.com. But I get it. You gave Cristian Javier a 10-2 lead, which he allowed to get to 10-5 by the time the 5th Inning started.
But the Astros have played 33 games in the last 36 days. Also, the starters haven't exactly shortened the game for the bullpen in the last few weeks. Yesterday's game followed Shawn Dubin's start in which the Astros were hoping he could give them three innings, and he ended up going four. Starter innings, 10-game road trip:
July 2 (Dubin): 4.0
July 1 (Brown): 4.0
June 30 (Blanco): 5.0
June 29 (France): 7.0
June 28 (Javier): 4.0
June 27 (Framber): 6.0
June 25 (Brown): 6.0
June 24 (Blanco): 6.0
June 23 (France): 6.0
From June 23-June 29 the starter went at least six innings in five of those six games. But in each of the four games of this crucial series against the Rangers, the bullpen had to cover at least four innings, and that was five innings in each of the last three. The bullpen is absolutely gassed, mainly because Javier has forgotten how to pitch, and Framber slipped down some stairs.
Bullpen Usage, last ten games:
Hector Neris: 6 games
Phil Maton: 6 games
Ryne Stanek: 5 games
Bryan Abreu: 5 games
Rafael Montero: 3 games
Seth Martinez: 3 games
Your high-leverage guys have thrown a lot. And you should be able to trust your #2 starter (Javier) with a 10-2 lead, or a 10-5 lead, to go an extra inning and give one of those guys a day off. Javier couldn't, because he has completely forgotten how to pitch. Pitching Coach Josh Miller:
He's not working deep into games. That's something he did last year, the back half of the year when he was a consistent starter for us. He was dominant. He was a force. We're working to get back to that version of him. He's working his tail off. We're going to go back to the drawing board and, hopefully, get him right.
It's worth revisiting this recent Eno Sarris article on the decline of Cristian Javier's fastball, or how his Invisiball is a little less Invisi.
So who should you be mad at? I'd go with Javier, or the injuries that led to the loss of Urquidy, McCullers, Garcia, and Framber, before Dusty.
*Ramgers 6-9 in the lineup, last four games: 18x57, 10RBI.
*This might be it for Michael Brantley. He will not take live BP against Jose Urquidy, having "plateaued" in his rehab, and the Astros are backing off of his recovery.
*This guy was charged with attempted murder after beating the piss out of a another guy (who happened to be in bed with his wife at a Florida AirBnB). The most insane sentence you'll ever read:
He further said, that he had a bat that he kept in the closet for self-defense or hitting baseballs or soccer balls.
I have been a high school soccer coach for eight years. Never once has a baseball bat been involved.
*NY Times: Texas BBQ is the best it's ever been. Here's why.
*ESPN: The Champions League begins in Iceland, where teams dream (and spend) big.
I got to try Velvet Taco's Chicken Tikka Taco yesterday afternoon and the Astros beat the Angels 5-2. It was a good day. The Astros are 33-23, 2.5 back of the idle West Van Rangers.
The Astros are 15-5 in their last 20 games. Since getting shut out in back-to-back games at Milwaukee, Houston has scored 5+ runs in six of seven. Houston is seven games through their 17-games-in-17-days stretch.
*Making his first career MLB start, Ronel Blanco threw 5.1IP, 7H/2ER, 5K:3BB. Alex Bregman:
We needed that one. Blanco was huge today, just giving us length, honestly. Not only length, but quality innings. He was attacking and competing. It's huge.
Blanco:
That's one of the reasons I went back down (to Sugar Land), for me to able to come back and pitch in these situations. The transition, I think, for me was a lot more mental than physical. Obviously, it was a great challenge for me but I took it in strike and I think I'm doing well.
Danielle Lerner: On Ronel Blanco's transformation from reliever to starter.
*That was Dusty Baker's 2,126th managerial win, moving him ahead of Joe McCarthy for 8th all-time. He's 263-177 with the Astros, which also puts him 8th all-time in franchise history. Dusty needs 13 wins to tie Bob Lillis for 7th in franchise history, and 14 wins to tie Phil Garner. He's 32 wins away from 7th place on the all-time leaderboard, held by Bucky Harris, who managed between 1924 and 1956.
*In 140 career games vs the Astros, Mike Trout - who went 0x3 with two walks - is hitting .252/.383/.511, the second-lowest OPS against teams he has played at least 15 times.
*Shohei Ohtani was 1x5 with two strikeouts. In 71 career games against the Astros, Ohtani is hitting .220/.314/.404 - the lowest OPS he's recorded against teams he has played at least 10 times.
*Kyle Tucker was 3x4 with two doubles - his first three-hit game since May 5, and the first time he's had a multi-XBH game since May 19. Tucker had posted one extra-base hit, a double, in his previous 10 games. He has struck out once in his last 29 plate appearances.
*Alex Bregman was 1x3 with 2RBI and a walk. On May 7, Bregman was hitting .195/.322/.320. Since then he's hitting .322/.368/.483. In his current eight-game hitting streak, Bregman is hitting .406/.424/.563.
Chandler Rome: Alex Bregman is trying to "do less" to get more.
*Jose Abreu was 1x3 with 2RBI, a double, and a sac fly. He has 5RBI in his last six games.
*Dusty Baker said Michael Brantley hit off a tee yesterday. So we can confirm that Michael Brantley exists. Not so much Lance McCullers Jr.
*Carlos Correa was removed from Minnesota's game after reaggravating the plantar fasciitis that saw him miss time last week. We do not Boo this man.
Good morning. I got home late, overslept, and got to work late. It's a great day. The Astros beat the Brewers 12-2 to improve to 28-19, winners of eight straight and eleven of their last twelve games. The Rangers lost, so the Astros are just a game back for the Division lead.
*To find a longer winning streak you have to go all the way back to [checks Baseball-Reference] May 2-13, 2022, when the Astros won 11 in a row against the Mariners, Tigers, and Twins.
*The Astros - as a team - have hit .276/.352/.451 in the last twelve games, raising their team OPS from .676 to .709. Houston also hit five home runs last night, an impressive feat considering that they hit five home runs in the previous six games combined (218 PAs).
*The previous 2023 game-high in homers was on April 5, when the Astros hit three against Detroit. It was the 56th time in franchise history that the Astros have hit 5+ homers, and the most since the Astros hit six homers at Fenway in a 13-6 win over the Red Sox on May 17, 2022. God, we've been spoiled. The Astros are 50-6 when hitting five home runs in a game.
*Brewers starting pitcher and 2021 NL Cy Young Winner (a feat about which I had completely forgotten) Corbin Burnes had thrown four straight Quality Starts and entered the game with a 3.48 ERA before getting lit up for 5ER. Prior to last night, Burnes had made 144 appearances (83 starts) and had never given up 4HR in a game before.
*Yordan Alvarez hit two home runs, one a grand slam on the first pitch of the AB. It was his 4th career grand slam and the 14th multi-homer regular season game of his career, both of which feel low. Those were also Yordan's 3rd and 4th career homers against the Brewers, and the 2nd and 3rd at Not Miller Park.
Yordan's homers vs. Milwaukee:
June 11, 2019 at Minute Maid Park vs. Matt Albers (his second career home run).
May 22, 2023 at Not Miller Park vs Corbin Burnes and something called a "Hoby Milner." In the year of our Lord 2023 there are people walking around that answer to the name "Hoby." Of course he's from Fort Worth.
I mean, he's one of the best hitters in the league. I don't care what pitcher we're putting in there. It's a challenge.
*Mauricio Dubon hit a home run before Jose Abreu. Just like we all drew it up in March.
*Martin Maldonado was 2x3 with a homer and a walk. Since April 30 (15 games), Maldonado is hitting - and I swear this is true - .319/.396/.511. Maldonado became the 69th player in MLB history a home run against all 30 MLB teams.
*In his last six games, Jake Meyers is hitting .389/.560/.722.
*Cristian Javier threw 6IP, 4H/1ER, 5K:1BB. In the 54 starts in his career, 23 of them have been Quality Starts. The Astros are 17-6 when Javier goes at least six innings and allows three or fewer earned runs.
*The Astros need five more wins this season for Dusty Baker to pass Joe McCarthy for 8th on the all-time managerial wins list. 38 more wins put him past Bucky Harris for 7th, 74 will pass Sparky Anderson for 6th.
I took a day off - not from work, but from this and from Social Media and hooboy was that fun! Couldn't figure out why I was in such a good mood. We should all try it sometime! So, let's catch up a little bit...
Without giving any specifics, the 30-year old Altuve said he put in a lot of work in the offseason to better himself both physically and mentally. Brantley picked up on it right away during a long talk with Altuve on the first day of camp.
Altuve, 1243 games (5,458 PAs) from 2010-2019: .315/.364/.463, 8.76 PAs/K.
Altuve, 48 games (210 PAs) in 2020: .219/.286/.344, 5.38 PAs/K.
Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in Altuve's 2020 after the 2019 offseason, starting Spring Training, stopping Spring Training, and the season beginning in late July.
Chandler Rome: Altuve is pursuing a season of redemption. Gurriel:
Usually the first couple days are a little more relaxed, but right from the first time I saw (Altuve), he's looked super, super focused. There's a different look about him.
It's something that was here last year, and then he tweaked it while he was working out this winter. You know how hard the guy works. We may have to monitor his work for his own sake, because this guy works. His hamstring is sore. Again. We've just got to take care of him.
Bregman tweeted at McTaggart that, if the season started today he'd be "good to go."
-James Click said the plan all along was to wait until Correa came to Spring Training before opening dialogue (oh, I'm an "opening dialogue" guy now. I'm also a "circle-back" guy, occasionally. From time to time I "reach out.") on a possible contract extension. Click:
It's a high priority. We're going to get to it. But we want to make sure that we put in the work before we really dig in, but we have talked about what is most important to him and that will give us some direction on how we can try to line this up.
My concern is that Click is going to try to Tampa this thing right up:
With a guy as talented as he is, it would be prudent for us to try to line that up, but it takes both sides.
Also:
-Stephen Souza has a real chance to make the Astros' Opening Day Roster.
*Yuli Gurriel attributed his sluggish "2nd-half" and postseason to the mental strain of free agency, and his weight (even though he signed his extension in early September). But he's in better shape now!
It would be great, but it has to be on their side also. If we can reach an agreement at some point it needs to be [before] the season starts because once the season starts, I don't want to be involved with any negotiations.
My guess right now is Ryan Pressly, who did a great job last year, save for two games. He only had like two bad outings last year...one game in Arizona that kind of blew him up a little bit, and then again in Texas, where his velocity was way below and a guy hit a home run to tie it up. Right now, I would say he is probably the leaders, having been with us.
Pressly allowed 5H/3ER, 1K:2BB in his first two appearances (0.2IP, nine batters faced), settling at a 40.50 ERA by the time both Verlander and Osuna were done for the year. Over his next 21 appearances, Pressly allowed 16H/5ER, 28K:5BB, 2.21 ERA / 1.03 WHIP, including that Texas game Strom mentioned. Dusty Baker just wants him healthy.
Strom also noted that Steve Cishek (which seems like a promising report on the chances of Cishek making the Opening Day roster), Joe Smith, and Pedro Baez could factor into the closer role, and that it's up to Dusty Baker.
In that link we also find that Andre Scrubb and Bryan Abreu are drawing early praise, there's an awful lot of pitchers in camp, and Dusty Baker had very nice things to say about Pedro Gomez (who seemed like a very good person).
There's this feeling out there that we do something super special as an organization. I think we just do our due diligence and we turn every rock over to try to find how we can help whatever pitchers we acquire.
Joe is one of the leaders on this team. Guys listen to him, they gravitate toward him, they follow him. Not only is it great to have Joe in the bullpen, but he's a quality guy that we all trust.
*Framber Valdez: "I want to have some nasty pitches this year." I, too, would like Framber to have some nasty pitches this year.
Occasionally, out of an abundance of caution, there are protocol steps that have to be taken players and personnel are cleared to report. We expect those steps to be completed soon, which will still give everyone enough time to prepare for the season.
Everything I've done since I've been with the Astros has...pretty much been self-driven. I haven't had much outside influence. I'm pretty stubborn. I don't always like to listen to people.
If there's anything that the Astros have been about since 2012, it's definitely without a doubt just sort of letting players do whatever they want. (But also keep in mind the above-linked interview with Brent Strom).
But there's also this one: "It goes without saying that this season is super, super important for me."
It's a really, really insightful read, lots of mechanics/grip analysis. Good interview, and it's not pay-walled, so have at it. I'm actually really excited to see what Forrest Whitley does this year. But also I hope he stops listening to Tyler Bauer.
The Astros are still finding hidden value through R&D and some great work on the player development side, and have a number of guys who look like breakout candidates for 2021, if we get a minor-league season.
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