I took a day off - not from work, but from this and from Social Media and hooboy was that fun! Couldn't figure out why I was in such a good mood. We should all try it sometime! So, let's catch up a little bit...
Without giving any specifics, the 30-year old Altuve said he put in a lot of work in the offseason to better himself both physically and mentally. Brantley picked up on it right away during a long talk with Altuve on the first day of camp.
Altuve, 1243 games (5,458 PAs) from 2010-2019: .315/.364/.463, 8.76 PAs/K.
Altuve, 48 games (210 PAs) in 2020: .219/.286/.344, 5.38 PAs/K.
Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in Altuve's 2020 after the 2019 offseason, starting Spring Training, stopping Spring Training, and the season beginning in late July.
Chandler Rome: Altuve is pursuing a season of redemption. Gurriel:
Usually the first couple days are a little more relaxed, but right from the first time I saw (Altuve), he's looked super, super focused. There's a different look about him.
It's something that was here last year, and then he tweaked it while he was working out this winter. You know how hard the guy works. We may have to monitor his work for his own sake, because this guy works. His hamstring is sore. Again. We've just got to take care of him.
Bregman tweeted at McTaggart that, if the season started today he'd be "good to go."
-James Click said the plan all along was to wait until Correa came to Spring Training before opening dialogue (oh, I'm an "opening dialogue" guy now. I'm also a "circle-back" guy, occasionally. From time to time I "reach out.") on a possible contract extension. Click:
It's a high priority. We're going to get to it. But we want to make sure that we put in the work before we really dig in, but we have talked about what is most important to him and that will give us some direction on how we can try to line this up.
My concern is that Click is going to try to Tampa this thing right up:
With a guy as talented as he is, it would be prudent for us to try to line that up, but it takes both sides.
Also:
-Stephen Souza has a real chance to make the Astros' Opening Day Roster.
*Yuli Gurriel attributed his sluggish "2nd-half" and postseason to the mental strain of free agency, and his weight (even though he signed his extension in early September). But he's in better shape now!
So the Winter Zoom Meetings came to an end on Thursday. The Astros lost Jose Alberto Rivera to the Angels in the Rule 5 Draft, as well as outfielder Drew Ferguson to the Mets and catcher Chuckie Robinson to the Reds in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
Rivera will be 24 in 2021 and is coming off a 2019 season in which he threw 75.2IP, 61H/32ER, 95K:36BB, but is most notable for throwing 102mph. He has to stick on the Angels' active roster for the whole season or be returned to the Astros. Prior to 2020, I would not have thought it possible to make it on an MLB roster for the entire season after having never been above Low-A. But who knows. The Angels paid $100,000 for Rivera, and if he gets DFA'd or sent to the minors, the Astros have the opportunity to get him back for $50,000. James Click said the Rule 5 rules mean that there's a good chance they get him back, and they needed the 40-Man Roster flexibility:
If we've added Rivera, we'd obviously be down to one [roster spot], and we've got quite a few holes on the roster to be filled. So we anticipate additional roster changes over the course of the season and had to balance the need for those roster spots over the next couple months with the ability to protect a player like that.
Ferguson was the Astros' 19th Round pick in the 2015 Draft and hit .281/.395/.440 at Round Rock in 2019. Chuckie Robinson was the Astros' 24th Round pick in the 2016 Draft and hit .217/.276/.324 at Corpus in 2019.
The Astros also picked up pitcher Joe Record in the Minor-League Phase of the draft, and pitcher Seth Martinez. Record was the Twins' 27th Round pick in 2017. He threw 55IP in 2019 - his professional debut - between Low-A and High-A, posting a 5.07 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with 68K:16BB.
Martinez, 26, was Oakland's 17th Round pick in 2016. In 2019 Martinez threw 71.2IP, 50H/20ER, 74K:18BB, 2.51 ERA/0.95 WHIP.
If immediately we have not addressed some of the areas that we have identified as needs, that doesn't mean we're not looking to do that later in the offseason. We're going to have that patience and make sure that we wait until we get to Spring Training - or maybe even a little bit into Spring Training based on previous winters - to assess this roster and how this offseason has gone.
He also said the Astros are still engaged in talks with representatives for both George Springer and Michael Brantley. Click here for McTaggart's un-paywalled version of the Click conversation.
Adding Realmuto to an infield that includes Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve could be a masterstroke, particularly if a lack of competing offers suppresses Realmuto's contract requirements.
He also predicts Springer to the Mets for 5yrs/$110m.
*If you look at FanGraphs' Depth Charts for 2021, you see the Astros are projected for a .545 win% - 88-74 - or the 3rd-best record in MLB (and the top team in the AL). I don't know how FanGraphs is doing this, but I'm not going to question it.
*An Italian man had an argument with his wife and then walked 280 miles to "clear his head."
*"Xmas or Bust:" The Untold Story of National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation.
*Leeds United v West Ham at 2pm Central Friday.
*A pre-Musical Selection: I'm obsessed with Kent Nishimura's YouTube channel:
*The Musical Selection for today, which came from a movie my kid watch a few weeks ago, and hasn't been out of my head since. So you can have this happen to you:
This offseason is uneventful so far. And, having lived through last off-season, I'm perfectly fine with that. AstroLine is back on Thursday night from 6-7pm, featuring Robert Ford/Steve Sparks interviewing GM Jiminy Clicket.
Undersized and from both a broken home and an impoverished rural background, he channeled his frustrations into throwing incredibly hard - with his left hand, despite being a natural righty, for he broke his right arm twice as a child.
Billy Wagner is absolutely a Hall of Famer. I skipped my own wedding shower (at my wife's church, to be fair) to watch Wagner record his 200th save, against the Rays, a 2-1 win that went Redding to Dotel to Wagner.
*The White Sox non-tendered Carlos Rodon, and I'll give you $20 if you had seen that coming in 2015. Reminder that Rodon, the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 Draft, two picks after the Astros took Brady Aiken.
*In case you missed it, on Monday morning I posted a delightful 37-minute interview with Astros fan/Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter for the Washington Post David Fahrenthold.
*On the 78th anniversary of the event, I wrote about the 1942 Boston College/Holy Cross game and the second-deadliest fire in American history.
*NY Times: This Japanese shop is 1,020 years old and knows a thing or two about surviving a crisis.
*After two days of reflection, this is where I am:
1. Absolutely amazing the Astros got as far as they did without Verlander, Yordan, and Osuna.
2. Absolutely infuriating that the largely-intact lineup couldn't come up with a few more hits in Games 1-3.
3. The emergence of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor, and Andre Scrubb makes 2020 a success no matter the ALCS outcome.
4. I still love Charlie Morton.
5. I told you I was terrified of the Rays.
6. I do not care who wins the World Series, despite my text to my cousins on Saturday night that "I would rather the world end than see the Dodgers win a World Series." I was acting out.
*At a press conference, GM James Click said that Altuve's struggles in 2020, and his sudden difficulty throwing the ball to first base, were but a blip:
I was really impressed by the fact that he didn't take that with him to the plate and he didn't let that affect the rest of his game. We are 100 percent confident that those blips are behind him. He is going to come back next year, I'm sure, as the elite offensive and defensive player that we know he is.
We had a long conversation. It was great. It was a very healthy conversation. He expressed his views and why he made the comments and I mostly listened. My job in that situation was I think just to listen to a Hall of Famer and find out why he would be frustrated by those kind of things.
*According to Mark Berman, Jeff Luhnow and [squints] A-Rod approached the Dynamo about purchasing the franchise, but nothing came of it.
*Luhnow spoke to KPRC about the sign-stealing scandal, because what is another early postseason exit without getting a chance to experience pain, past or present? I have many thoughts, and I'm going to work through them, and we'll convene tomorrow, yeah?
*I voted last Tuesday. It took 45 minutes, longer than I've ever waited to vote. Pro Publica: Why do non-white voters in Georgia have to wait for hours?
Well I hope you enjoyed the Foot Ball. The Sooners sort of Boomer'd - sorry Texsa Fan. So yesterday was a Saturday where there was no playoff baseball, no Premier League, and only COVIDball. What a terrible time to be alive. 1st Pitch is at 6:37pm Central on TBS. Some notes in advance of Game 1:
*All-Time on October 11, the Astros are 2-3 (but are 2-0 since starting 0-3!)
All-Time franchise LCS Game 1 record: 2-3
*The Game 1 SPs will be Framber Valdez vs. Blake Snell, Game 2 will be Lance McCullers vs. TBA. That's literally the plan. The Rays have changed the game so much that Ten Bloody Armadillos will each get a shot at the Astros' lineup, to maddening success.
Snell vs. Houston, regular season career: six starts, 2-2, 4.73 ERA / 1.49 WHIP, .264/.350/.512, 31K:16BB.
Snell vs. Houston, postseason career: three appearances (one start, two in relief all in the 2019 ALDS), 5.1IP, 1.69 ERA / 0.75 WHIP, 7K:0BB.
The Rays are 5-4 overall when Snell pitches against the Astros since 2016. FiveThirtyEight has it 53-47 Rays in Game 1. If you click that link you'll find that the Rays have a slight edge in every. single. game. Snell:
It's gonna be a battle for sure, because they don't give in at all. Once they get on you it's like blood in the water. They're a bunch of sharks...It's gonna be a fun little competition.
*Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker is sticking with Yuli Gurriel. Dusty:
Yuli's my first baseman. You're not going to find it on the bench. You're going to find it playing. I'm not a fair-weather coach.
After the double-header with Oakland on August 29, Gurriel was hitting .292/.348/.517 - a very respectable .865 OPS. He "hit" .154/.168/.209 to finish the regular season. Gurriel is 2x23 - both singles - this postseason, but 1K:1BB. He's making contact, just the wrong kind. Gurriel's BABIP in the postseason is .087. So I went back through StatCast to find just how many balls he hit with an expected batting average of over .400 with what actually happened from September 1 through the end of the regular season:
Number of balls hit with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out: 16
Now, you can't say that every ball you hit with a 40% chance of getting on base will result in getting on base 100% of the time - I realize that. So if we say that maybe eight of those 16 balls should have been hits, that would raise his average from .154 to .242. Again, this is spitballing.
Number of balls hit in the 2020 Postseason with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out:
Game 1 WC: 1 (.740 xBA)
Game 2 WC: 0
Game 1 ALDS: 1 (.470 xBA)
Game 2 ALDS: 0
Game 3 ALDS: 1 (.410 xBA)
Game 4 ALDS: 0
That's not terribly telling, but it does tell you that instead of being 2x23, maybe he should be 5x23, and .217 is way different than .087. And he's a great defensive 1B. And who else are you going to put over there? And the Cionel Perez robbed Yuli of a BP homer yesterday. Yuli going off tonight.
*Given that there are no off-days from Games 1-7, Dusty said he's probably going to add a pitcher to the roster. Those eligible pitchers are Brandon Bailey, Brandon Bielak, Humberto Castellanos, Chase De Jong, Shawn Dubin, Ralph Garza, Cionel Perez, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. None of them have ever pitched in the postseason before. Hell, only De Jong and Perez had pitched in the Majors before 2020.
On a scale of Zero to Weird, it's going to be Weird.
*Peter Gammons pointed out that in February fans in Port St. Lucie booed Michael Brantley, who was not on the 2017 team, and did not boo J.D. Davis and Jake Marisnick, who were. People are stupid. I mean, have you ever interacted with any of them? People, I mean. I try to avoid it.
It did not dawn on me until right now that there were no days off in a League Championship Series.
We now know the Astros will face the Tampa Bay Rays. Five weeks after Aroldis Chapman was suspended two games for throwing over Mike Brousseau's head, Brousseau took Chapman deep for a go-ahead home run to send Tampa to their 2nd ALCS in franchise history. It's the 4th postseason home run Chapman has allowed and, for a second-straight year, he takes the L in an elimination game. Aaron Boone:
It's awful. The ending is cruel, it really is.
Plot twist: It's not.
There are no common opponents to compare the Astros and Rays in 2020. Even comparing 2020 regular season stats seem kind of dumb, given how the ALDS went. But let's just get this over with, FanGraphs rankings, 2020 regular season:
It's surreal...I was there for 14 years. I know almost everybody there...They're some of my closest friends and just couldn't be happier for them...Look, I was pulling for them...but at the same time now that they're here the focus is try and figure out how to beat them, how do we get past them and get to the World Series.
*Some guy decided to ask Dodgers President Andrew Friedman about the Astros and he said:
I think them playing the victim's complex card is a little interesting to me. Like, I get that it's been a difficult year for them, but to play the victim card, I think has been, you know, a curious strategy.
*Tyler Kepner: On Whitey Ford and the one game he never got to pitch.
The Trade Deadline came and went at 3pm Central yesterday afternoon and...nothing happened. We can debate whether or not that's a good thing, but - on the surface - it makes some sense. Here's my case for standing pat being the right call:
1. This is a really weird season. The farm system has taken a hit by trading for Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke in a two-year span. Why further deplete it for a 60-game season that was in danger of being Asterisk'd before it even got started?
2. Houston is on the verge of getting Jose Urquidy back, bolstering the rotation. Alex Bregman is presumably coming back in the next couple of weeks. With any luck at all (something the Astros haven't experienced since 2017), Justin Verlander is a viable option for the rotation. And we haven't even brought up the fact that surely there's no way that Springer is actually a .209 hitter, and Altuve isn't a 58 OPS+ guy all of a sudden. The reinforcements you might trade for are potentially on their way already.
3. There are 27 regular season games remaining for the Astros, and Baseball-Reference says (FanGraphs is being weird this morning) Houston has a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, and the best odds (22.7%) of winning their third Pennant in four years. Every team below the Astros in the AL West got worse. Oakland has 10 of their 26 remaining games against the Astros, Padres, and Dodgers. Houston has six of 27 remaining games against the A's and Dodgers. Even with this injury-depleted roster with two massive underperformers in the top half of the lineup, it's feasible to think that the Astros can catch the A's and win their fourth straight division title.
And a few cases for why doing Absolutely Nothing was not the right call.
1. This current incarnation of the Houston Astros - the golden years, in many respects - is about to be a chapter in the past. Springer, Brantley, and Reddick are all free agents in two months (and say what you want about Reddick, but he's hitting .280/.361/.439 this season). Correa, Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Pressly, and Osuna (who might get non-tendered here in a couple of months) are all free agents after the 2021 season. If you're going to win another Pennant or World Series with this group of players, this is the year to do it. So the Red Sox wanted a pitching prospect for a reliever to fill in the gaps? Pull the trigger.
2. That's actually all I can think of and, while that's a pretty big one, it's still just one. I'm okay with it.
We weren't going to make a move just to make a move. We were going to make a move if we thought that helped us put ourselves in a better position to win a World Series. And at the end of the day, I just couldn't line up something that we thought was reasonable both for the current team and the permanent franchise overall.
Chandler Rome: Why the Astros didn't do anything at the Trade Deadline.
*Ken Rosenthal says the 2020 draft will be five rounds. Teams can sign any undrafted player beyond that for $20,000. Jake Kaplan notes that the Astros will have the 72nd overall pick, as well as the 101st, 131st, and 160th.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield picked his USA Baseball Dream Team for an unknown Summer Olympics. If you want to know where to scroll to find some Astros, he has this: Our only rule: No Astros. Hey, chemistry is an important thing in a tournament like this and those sign-stealing wounds haven't healed yet. Can't take the risk of some bad blood if, say, Alex Bregman has to dress next to Cody Bellinger.
*Speaking of, Brian McTaggart has the Astros' Top Five international signings.
*Chandler Rome: How James Click is using this [waves hands] break to get to know the organization.
Willie Mays is 89 today. On his 37th birthday in 1968, Judge Roy Hofheinz gave him a 569-pound cake at the Astrodome -- one pound for each of Mays' home runs. pic.twitter.com/qLbVZYO1TX
*In Baseball-Reference's OOTP-simulated season the Royals THE ROYALS beat the Astros 13-0. George Springer, for some reason, was hitting 7th, and Josh James and Brad Peacock each allowed five earned runs. I hate this simulation. The Astros are in 3rd, behind the A's and Mariners.
*ESPN's Sam Miller ranked all 115 World Series. I'm not telling you what to think but, #51, #35, and #23. I have irrational anger. Miller, on 2017: But after the Astros' systematic cheating scheme was revealed, this whole series has a whiff of 1919 to it. We don't really know what we saw, or who would have won if it had been played straight up. Instead, it produced a champion we all regret having felt happy for.
That "Whiff of 1919" is a reference to when the 1919 Chicago White Sox intentionally lost the World Series to the Cincinnati Reds for money, because the players received money from gamblers exploiting ownership's treatment and payment of players. So this is where we are.
*Power Rankings, Top Players, Key Storylines: What you need to know as the KBO opens its season. The NC Dinos and Samsung Lions will play at 12am Central on ESPN. Games start at a more reasonable time of 4:30am Central on Wednesday.
*On this day 55 years ago Lew Alcindor picked UCLA over his hometown St. John's, and changed everything.
*Steve Carell's major credits:
-The Dana Carvey Show (1996)
-The Daily Show (1999-2005)
-Bruce Almighty (2003)
-Anchorman (2004)
-The 40-Year Old Virgin (2005)
-The Office (2005-2013)
-Evan Almighty (2007)
-Dan In Real Life (2007)
-Get Smart (2008)
-Date Night (2010)
-Despicable Me (2010)
-Despicable Me 2 (2013)
-Foxcatcher (2014)
-Despicable Me 3 (2017)
*SI: Meet the massage therapist with five World Series rings. Bald Yankees fans with gold chains and track suits are already throwing Molotov Cocktails through his windows yelling "Twenty-Two Short! [Clap clap clapclapclap]"
Everything is crazy right now. It's absolutely amazing. The remainder of Spring Training has been cancelled and Opening Day has been delayed for two weeks in order to allow Justin Verlander and Yordan Alvarez to heal up. because of COVID-19.
Mark Feinsand: MLB and its clubs have been preparing a variety of contingency plans regarding the 2020 regular-season schedule. The league plans to announce the effects on the schedule at an appropriate time, though MLB also said it "will remain flexible as events warrant, with the hope of resuming normal operations as soon as possible.
This would put Opening Day on April 9 at the earliest. Opening Day for the minor-leagues - originally scheduled for April 9 - has also been delayed, though how long has yet to be determined. If MLB just shifts the dates two weeks, it would put the end of the regular season at October 11, which would be an early- to mid-November World Series, which the Astros will win. Or MLB shortens the season to 154 or 144 games (as they did in the strike-shortened season of 1995).
James Click: Obviously, we're disappointed that we won't be playing baseball at Minute Maid Park in a couple weeks, but we understand that there are things that are bigger than Baseball.
Tom Verducci: Shutting down MLB was the right call, but there's no precedent for what happens next.
*Chandler Rome: The Making of GM James Click. This is a really good article. Rays VP of Player Development Peter Bendix: (Click) is very good at being a leader. He's very good at inspiring people to believe in him, at promoting a vision, at just kind of taking a group of people and moving them forward in the same direction just by kind of uniting them toward one goal. I don't know to what extent he is doing it intentionally or it's just natural, but it certainly comes across as natural.
Spring Break Eve lllllleeettttttssss ggggggooooo. The Astros got a dominant pitching performance and a dominant Kyle Tucker outbreak to beat the Red Sox, who - any day now, I'm sure, will receive their own cheating punishment which will undoubtedy lead to a level of reactionary vitriol inly surpassed by the 2017 Houston Astros, 5-0.
-Josh James threw 3IP, 1H/0ER, 2K:0BB. Faced the minimum and hit 98mph.
-Framber Valdez threw 2IP, 1H/0ER, 2K:0BB
-Bryan Abreu threw 2IP, 1H/0ER, 4K:0BB
-Kyle Tucker was 3x3 with 2RBI on a double and a home run.
Springer, Altuve, Correa, and Bregman did not make the trip to Fort Myers. Was that part of Dusty's plan? Hell no. That was the furthest thing from my mind.
Dusty, on Josh Big Flames James: I'm telling you, he's focused. He wants to take a job. We're giving him every opportunity. He's looking good, he's looking real good.
In that link, we also find that:
-2019 2nd Round pick Grae Kessinger is ready to go for his first full year.
-Yordan's knees are officially a Dusty Concern
-Brad Peacock threw 15 pitches off a mound
-The Astros are thinking about Coronavirus.
*McTaggart has a Q&A with GM James Click. Click: The focus has been, obviously, on some stuff off the field, but it's the crack of the bat, it's the pop of the glove. It's spring. It's baseball. I hope that once we get to Opening Day or even before that, [we] start focusing on the field and remember the rebirth that comes every year with baseball and get excited about this team that is going to compete for a championship.
*Former Astros Great Collin McHugh signed a 1yr/$600K deal that could reach $3.625m with incentives with the Red Sox. He's recovering from a flexor strain and hasn't started throwing yet. McHugh is expected to be ready to go around June. That would have been such a low-risk move by the Astros, but I guess you have to keep an eye on what tier over the CBA you'll be. That said, if you can't find $600,000 for a guy that has done literally whatever you asked for the last three seasons
*2017 4th Round pick Peter Solomon just missed the Astros' Top 30 Prospects list. Solomon threw 7.2IP in 2019 before blowing out his elbow and needing Tommy John. He's probably done until the end of 2020, but has struck out 128 (and walked 36) batters in 109.1IP.
*Joe Torre doesn't think opposing pitchers will intentionally target Astros hitters. Torre: I have more trust in baseball than that...Getting angry or trying to get even, to me, it doesn't get you anywhere. You're on the field to try to win ballgames and get to the postseason, and I certainly expect that teams will be more concerned about winning games than trying to get a pound of flesh.
I think that's true. But what if the game is well out of reach (for either team)? Bregman is up to bat with the Astros ahead/behind by nine runs?
*Forrest Whitley talked about reporting to camp at 230 pounds, up 40 from the 190 at which he showed up in 2019. Whitley: I was just so skinny that by the time the season would reach like June or July, I wasn't ready. That showed in 2018; I got hurt quite a little bit....I think just the general thought process that went into that was just not coming into camp absurdly skinny like I had the past couple years. I remember a couple years ago I came into camp at like 190, so I wanted to lower the workload, eat a little bit more, and focus on coming into camp at a little better weight.
I'm sitting at about 235, down five since the beginning of the month. Of course, I'm like 5'11" so
*Jim Crane told James Click he can have more money if he needs it. Click: I know where our payroll is relative to the CBT line. (Crane) just shot it down and was like, 'We're over it, that's fine because we're going to win, and if you need more for us to win, I'll get you more.
Spotrac has the Astros' payroll at $214m to $231m. The line in which you pay the tax in 2020 is $208m, with a further penalty if you go over $228m. $37.3m is coming off the books after the season when Brantley ($16m), Reddick ($13m), and Gurriel ($8.3m) become free agents, with the possibility of a further reduction should the Astros not re-sign George Springer ($21m in 2020). I love savings. Love it when my favorite team has coupons. Getting a jersey embroidered with "Savings" on the back.
*Rob Manfred, on punishing the Astros' players themselves: Look, it's impossible, given the facts that we found - and, frankly, the statements of the Astros' players since the decision came out - to escape the fact that, independent of what the GM did, the manager did, (the players) had an obligation to play by the rules, and they didn't do it. I understand when people say, 'The players should have been punished.' I understand why people feel that way, because they did not do the right thing...If I was in a world where I could have found all the facts, without granting immunity, I would have done that.
Manfred says throwing at Astros' hitters is "dangerous, and not helpful to the current situation."
Manfred, on the use of buzzers in 2019: Can I tell you 100 percent certain that it didn't happen? No. You can never know that. People tell you what they tell you. I will tell you, the evidence on this issue was as consistent in the direction that nothing was going on as the evidence was consistent in the direction that there was inappropriate behavior in (2017 and 2018).
So stay with me here: The part of the quote that, and this is shocking I know, people are keying in on is the first part, where Manfred says he can't be 100% certain the Astros weren't wearing buzzers in 2019. But he goes on to say, if you take the time to read the whole quote, that the evidence was as consistent for them not wearing buzzers as it was consistent that they did shady crap in 2017 and 2018. In other words, Manfred's investigation probably got that right, since the Astros themselves are coming out and admitting it.
It is incredibly shocking to me that people are running to Jomboy's defense and taking what he throws against the wall as gospel, while ignoring evidence to the contrary. I can't quite put my finger on a parallel in society where people believe the guy they like is telling them the truth in the face of evidence to the contrary, and vilifying the people who provide said contrary evidence. It's right on the tip of my tongue. I'll figure it out, I guess, after a little more coffee.
Anyway, here's where the buzzer theory originated: Reddit user meme-engineer on October 24: I had a dream a couple weeks back when the Astros were playing the Rays, it was that after the post season finished a news story came out that the Astros had a team of people deciphering signs with cameras and then that team relayed the signal to transponders that were worn in the cleats of the top (trusted not to snitch) Astros players, the transponders would vibrate according to what pitch was coming (example: once for fastball, twice for off-speed). But it was just a dream haha. That wouldn't happen.
*Say, what's happening with Mike Fiers: Sunday, The Chronicle asked Fiers, the public whistleblower in the Astros' cheating scandal, if he'd like to respond to Correa's prompting, and Fiers politely declined comment. Then, before walking away, Fiers added, 'We did it as a team.' *The A's had filed a formal complaint to MLB about the Astros before Fiers' allegations were revealed in The Athletic, and nothing was done.
*Yu Darvish says the Astros should lose their title. Darvish: It's like the Olympics. When a player cheats, you can't have a gold medal, right? But they still have a World Series title. It feels weird.
Darvish threw 3.1IP in the 2017 World Series in two starts - Game 3 in Houston and Game 7 in Los Angeles - and allowed 9H/9R (8ER), 0K:2BB, 2HR, and threw 61 of his 96 pitches for strikes.
*Chris Sale: Yeah, it sucks. But what am I going to do? Am I going to hold them at gunpoint? Am I going to sit here and curse them out through a bunch of cameras? If I have something to say to them, I know those guys. I can get one of their numbers and text them and talk to them face-to-face or whatever. It happened. What are you going to do about it? You can sit around and cry about it or I can get my ass to work and try and win a championship.
*GM James Click says the focus is on rebuilding trust: Every Astros employee, every single one of us, is absolutely committed to making sure that that kind of thing never happens here again. That's our focus. There will be absolutely zero tolerance, no tolerance whatsoever, for that kind of behavior in the Houston Astros organization ever again. And furthermore, that would be the case whether there had been an investigation or not. Any organization that I'm a part of would be absolutely 100 percent in compliance with the rules. There'll be no question about that.
*Yahoo's Tim Brown: The Astros should stop apologizing and go full heel.
*Will Harris is "in a tough spot" in Washington. Harris: Oh, man. They're obviously my friends, and guys that I consider family, guys I will have a relationship with the rest of my life, hopefully. And now watching them go through this...
*MLB will restrict access to video during games. Dugout phone calls will be recorded. Bo Bichette, on technology in the games: In a way it would be dumb to not take advantage of what we have, but at the same time I think that...personally I'd be fine if there was no technology in there whatsoever. I mean they did it back in the day, why can't we do it now? So I'm sure part of the reason (the Astros) did what they did, it is because of how easy the access was to it. And for me, I'd have no problem taking every bit of it away.
The full interview will air Friday at 5pm on MLB Network.
On whether or not the 2017 World Series title is tainted, Hinch: I hope over time it's proven that it wasn't. But I understand the question. It's a fair question and people are going to have to draw their own conclusions (Ed. Note: Oh, they have). Unfortunately, we opened that door as a group. That question may never be answered....I can't pinpoint any advantages or what happened or what exactly would have happened otherwise. But we did it to ourselves.
There are a couple of ways you can interpret this sit-down with Tom Verducci:
a) He's just biding his time until the next managerial opening and is doing the PR round.
b) Hinch is legitimately sorry that he didn't try harder to stop The Coward Alex Cora and any other Astro player (Beltran, maybe, McCann, maybe) and he's getting in front of the camera to confess.
Both can be true at the same time.
*Brian McTaggart writes that all eyes, and ears, will be on the Astros' Spring Training. Stoner hero Mike Clevinger has already said this: I'm all about policing the game in its own right, keeping everyone safe. But I don't know, I think players will deal with it the way it should be across the league. I don't think it's going to be a comfortable few ABs for a lot of those boys, and it shouldn't be. They shouldn't be comfortable.
*Chandler Rome has five questions for the Astros as Spring Training starts next week. Those five questions detail SP5, Kyle Tucker vs Josh Reddick, which reliever will get lefty-hitters out, Lance McCullers' innings, and the possibility of a sophomore slump from Yordan.
*Richard Justice writes that the Astros-Dusty partnership can be mutually beneficial. Justice: Baker cannot make the sign-stealing scandal go away, but his presence - and essential decency - will be a big step in the right direction. He understands that all the Astros can do this spring is own up to the past, apologize for it and then attempt to win a fourth straight American League West title.
*Jake Kaplan says the relationship between Dusty Baker and James Click is more "a marriage." Baker: You start with trust and you start with honesty. You be as straightforward as you can on all situations. You don't sugarcoat anything. If he asks you a question you answer to the best of your knowledge and ability. There are some things that I can learn from him. There are some things that possibly he can learn from me.
*Missed this from the other day, but the Astros have apparently for some reason made an offer to Former Astros Great Hunter Pence. Makes sense, what with the thinned outfield depth of Springer, Brantley, Tucker, Reddick, Straw...
*Hank Aaron thinks everyone involved in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal should be banned from baseball for life.
*Sam Miller: They secretly replaced Yankee Stadium...and other lies that can be proven using real stats.
*Rob Manfred said he wants to complete the Red Sox investigation before Spring Training camps open, with the same offer of immunity for players who talk that the Astros got.
*BBC: How Kirk Douglas helped end the Hollywood blacklist.
*Bloomberg: The time I sabotaged my editor with Ransomware from the dark web.
Alright, some things happened. Let's talk about them:
The Astros hired 42-year old Yale- and Baseball Prospectus-grad James Click to be their general manager. Click was the Rays' VP of Baseball Operations. He's the 15th General Manager in Astros history - actually maybe he's considered the 12th general manager in Astros history since Tal Smith served as GM on three separate occasions (1965-67, 1975-80, 2007). Click apparently signed a multi-year contract. Click will be introduced in a press conference at 10:30am on Tuesday.
Click: I am excited to join the Astros family. The Astros are a progressive and innovative organization with a deeply talented group in the front office. I am grateful to Jim Crane and the Astros for giving me this opportunity to help lead this team to more championships.
Crane: James has had an impressive career. He is a respected leader who has progressed in this game across all aspects of Baseball Operations and he has built great relationships with both front office and clubhouse personnel.
You can read this Tampa Bay Times article from January 29 regarding Click. Marc Topkin: Click...joined the Rays in 2005 as an intern to help build a database for new baseball operations chief Andrew Friedman. Click got hired full time in 2006, and the Yale history major has worked his way up to vice president of baseball operations. He has had a hand in all facets of the operation, including systems, research and development, logistics, player evaluation, contract negotiations and more.
Click is basically the Outside-Hire That Feels Like It's An Internal Promotion GM hire. You couldn't draw up a better story for a GM that would fit the Astros' current MO more than Click. It's a fresh start, but it feels like a continuation.
Click may have to hire a new manager here in about 11 months.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield: One stat that will determine each team's 2020. For the Astros: 500 - the number of innings pitched by 2019 Astros pitchers who are not returning to the team in 2020.
Plot Twist: There is no level of contrition the Astros could possibly show before the start of the regular season that will suffice. There's nothing that will satiate the bloodlust. MLB has their villain, it's the Astros, and nothing will change that. It's how it is now. Alex Bregman could come out in an alternate uni of sackcloth & ashes and get on his knees and beg the media for forgiveness, and the goalposts will move.
*SI's Matt Martell: Ten Questions for the Unofficial Start of Baseball Season. #9 is "How Good Will The Astros Be?"
My kingdom for Jim Crane to come and introduce the new Astros manager as "Busty Daker." Dusty Baker is the 24th manager in Astros' history (Baker is currently one game behind Salty Parker in "Career Astros Games Managed". By the end of May, Baker will rank 19th in Games Managed in Astros History. He signed a 1-year guaranteed deal with a club option or a buyout. Jim Crane: He's a winner, and more importantly, a strong leader who has earned the respect of not only his players, but of virtually everyone that he has touched in baseball.
Whether you believe Jim Crane or not, the hiring of Dusty Baker is about regaining legitimacy.
Baker: I'm extremely thankful for this opportunity. This is a great ballclub with outstanding players that know how to win. I applaud Jim Crane for the leadership he has shown in recent weeks and look forward to working with him and the players to bring a championship to the city of Houston.
Dusty Baker is just 137 wins from becoming the 12th manager to reach 2,000 wins. With this roster, he could do it by September.
As I mentioned on Twitter, and on the Lima Time Time live show on Tuesday night, there is a certain perspective in which Dusty Baker makes sense:
1. They need someone who is well-respected (by the media and General Baseball People, anyway - your complaints were heard loud and clear)...
2. They need someone who has managed in a variety of situations...
3. They need someone who can handle A Circus.
Dusty Baker checks all of those boxes. He managed Barry Bonds for ten years, including Bonds' 2001 73HR season. He has managed in nine separate postseasons, won 95+ games six times, and 103 games once (in his rookie managerial year, when the Giants famously won that many games and didn't even get into the postseason). Baker has managed in San Francisco, Chicago, and Washington, so he has dealt with Bonds, Prior/Wood, Harper, Scherzer, etc. Would I have been equally fine with Buck Showalter? Maybe! Do I wish Espada had gotten the job? Sure!
But this is an extraordinary time for the Astros. They're coming off one of the biggest scandals in recent baseball memory (however common it may have been throughout literally all of baseball history). It's certainly the largest baseball scandal of the Twitter Era, which makes it that much more insufferable. And the fact that Yankee and Dodger Fan is the most aggrieved, it's just a God-awful time. If you're enjoying this era of Astros Baseball, well, you're a psychopath. Every city to which the Astros travel is going to be that city's sports story of the day...Kind of like Bonds was in 2001. Baker managed through that and made it to Game 7 of the World Series in 2002....when the Giants had a 3-2 lead before losing both Games 6 & 7 to Anaheim (and, to be fair, both of those games were in Anaheim).
Columnists across [puts hand across forehead] the land are going to love it because their hand-wringing, and bringing blood out of a turnip, will easily provide that week's Column. But then they have to deal with Dusty Baker, whom pretty much everyone loves except for you, who gets their narrative from FanGraphs. Their hearts will melt. It's an organizational rehab assignment, for a year, and the best-case scenario is that the Astros (and by that I of course mean Us) and Dusty Baker gets their ring in 2020. Winning a World Series like this, in this year, with this much hate, would be delicious, and the scrutiny would cleanse it. Yankee and Dodger Fan would move the goalposts, to be sure. But it would be sweeter than the first (I think).
And for everyone who busts on Baker's postseason record, let's look at it more closely:
1997: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to the eventual WS Champion Marlins.
2000: Lost in the NLDS 3-1 to the eventual NL Pennant-Winning Mets. Two of those games went to extra innings.
2002: Lost in the World Series 4-3 to Anaheim
2003: Lost in the NLCS 4-3 to the eventual WS Champion Marlins. This is the Bartman series.
2010: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to Philadelphia. Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter in Game 1. Cole Hamels threw a CGSHO in Game 3.
2012: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to the eventual WS Champion Giants
2013: Lost in the Wild Card Game to the [squints] Pirates
2016: Lost in the NLDS 3-2 to the Dodgers, who won the Pennant in 2017...
2017: Lost in the NLDS 3-2 to the Cubs, who won the World Series in 2016. Max Scherzer allowed four runs in the 5th Inning of Game 5.
Five-game series are a crapshoot. We almost got to see that firsthand in 2019 against Tampa. Anyhow, Dusty Baker's record in postseason games when facing elimination is 5-9. A.J. Hinch's record in postseason games when facing elimination was 7-3 (I'm willing to admit my math could be fuzzy here). But I'm not busting on A.J. Hinch! Hinch is/was the greatest manager in Astros history, and I'm sad that he's gone, I wish he would come back! I wish he hadn't been fired!
Anyhow, no matter how you feel about it, the 2020 Astros, who won 107 games in 2019 and lost the World Series by going 0-4 at home - something that HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HISTORY I THINK - but is returning every major player except for Gerrit Cole and Robinson Chirinos. Expect a dip, but I - literally me - could absolutely manage this team to 90 wins. They're that good. Now they have Dusty Baker, who will have Joe Espada as his Bench Coach, to help out.
Crane: We're in a spot where we've had some unfortunate things happen and we've owned up to it. We need a strong leader that's been in a lot of different situations and has experience.
Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker gives the Astros a stabilizing presence. Rome: The team is sullied by scandal but still set to contend for a title. Its image and reputation remain in ruins. Players will endure eight months of invective from opposing crowds and players. Baker arrives as a slice of serenity amid acrimony, a man who Crane hopes can galvanize an Astros clubhouse still searching for a way forward.
Rome talked to Ralph Garr: Houstonian, 1974 NL Batting Champ, and former teammate of Dusty: He's the right man for the job. It's not going to be easy for those players. They're going to have to have somebody to lean on. He knows how to treat people, and he cares about his players. He can make adjustments, and he can help the Astros stay competitive.
The press conference to introduce Baker will be at 2pm Central.
*MLB.com predicted the 2020 Astros' rotation would go Verlander-Greinke-McCullers-Urquidy-Peacock.
*The Astros have just one player - Forrest Whitley - on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects list for the first time since 2012. But Bregs, Yordan, and Kyle Tucker are still awfully young so...
*Former Astros Great Gregorio Petit will be Corpus' manager, his first stint at the head of a team. Former Astros Great Wladimir Sutil will manage a team for the first time, at Tri-City.
