I do indeed hope you enjoyed a few days without the Astros jellydicking around. I know I did. I'm posting these now so I don't have to worry about it tomorrow morning. The Astros start the second half of the season tomorrow night in Anaheim against Future Astros Great Shohei Ohtani.
*Playoff Odds:
FanGraphs: 43.2% to win division, 66.1% to make postseason.
*When can the Astros catch the Rangers for the division lead? The Astros start the second half with nine road games before coming back home to play Upper Mansfield: three at Anaheim, two at Colorado, and four at Oakland. The Astros are 13-2 against those three teams in 2023.
The Ramgers also have nine games, all of them at home, before coming to Minute Maid Park: three vs Cleveland, three vs Tampa, and three vs the Dodgers. They lost a three-game series against Tampa already, but haven't played Cleveland or LA - who are both lead their respective divisions.
But to go up in the division, the Astros have to be three games better than the Rangers in the next nine games. So if the Rangers go 4-5, the Astros have to go 7-2 (this seems simple, but just making sure everyone understands the maths). It's hard to make up three games in nine games, unless of course you're trying to catch the 2007 Mets lol.
*The 2024 season schedule has been released, and the Astros host the Yankees to start the 2024 campaign. They'll also play a series against the Rockies in Mexico City.
*FanGraphs: Jay Jaffe's Cooperstown Notebook still gives Altuve a good shot at making the HOF.
Times for the 2021 regular season schedule were announced and we get to see George Springer lead off another season with a bomb, this time against the Yankees! Haha that's gonna be rad to see our very own George Spr...wait. Toronto!?
There are only eight games with a first pitch after 8pm Central prior to the All-Star Break (15 from the All-Star Break to the end of the regular season).
*Chandler Rome: Six big questions facing the Astros before Spring Training.
*Jake Kaplan: The Astros have a good front five in their rotation, but what about the depth?
It's worth mentioning the sheer number of pitchers you need to get through a 162-game season. I'm throwing out the 2020 season, much in the same way that I'm throwing out all of the 2020 year, so I went back - I actually did this - and figured out how many different pitchers started at least one game for each MLB team in 2019. The results were interesting.
In the 2019 season, which was coming off a very normal 2018 season (something we're not about to do), the 30 MLB teams combined to need 388 starting pitchers, for an average of 12.93 per team. BUT! The National League needed way fewer pitchers:
Total NL SPs: 165
Avg SPs per team: 11
The National League team with the highest number of pitchers to start at least one game was San Francisco, who needed 16 SPs to get through the season. Four NL teams needed nine or fewer SPs: the Mets, Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals. However:
Total AL SPs: 223
Avg SPs per team: 14.87
The 2019 Toronto Blue Jays led MLB with 21 different pitchers to start at least one game, which feels insane to me. While the NL had four teams with nine or fewer starters over the course of the whole season, the teams with the fewest number of SPs over the course of the season were the Royals and Twins, with ten each. The reasons for this are worth exploring. Due to the DH, AL SPs can go longer in games which may lead to more injuries or recovery stints on the IL. NL SPs get pulled for a pinch-hitter earlier in games, so their pitch counts are lower than AL SPs per start (probably, I may look into this further. But also, I may not.) There are probably reasons I haven't considered yet.
That said: yeah, the Astros' starting rotation looks like it's good. But they might need as many as ten more starters. They needed 14 different SPs in 2019, and a fun game would be to try to name all 14 starting pitchers in the 2019 season. You can find the answers in the comments. Oh wait, I wisely disabled those a while back.
*Former Astros Great Jake Marisnick got a deal with the Cubs for $1.5m guaranteed, possibly $5.5m.
*I'm in the process of reading Nicole Perlroth's book about the ongoing worldwide infosec war (not great for the Ol' Anxiety!) and it has already sent me down a rabbit hole. The Atlantic: Who are the Shadow Brokers?
There were actual baseballs being thrown. So here's how this is going to go: New baseball stuff will go at the top, sign-stealing stuff will go towards the bottom, and interesting things I come across will go below that. So if you want to skip the sign-stealing stuff, you don't have to do it at the top. Let's get to it, I guess...
*Justin Verlander was scheduled to throw on Friday, but didn't, because he threw a 60-pitch bullpen on Wednesday and wanted some extra rest.
*Lance McCullers is looking forward to a healthy 2020: I feel like I've put in a lot of hard work over this past 15, 16 months. I've come a long way, not only physically, but also mentally and just kind of where I'm at and moving to the season. I'm excited to get going again, obviously. I've had to wait a long time. It felt like a lifetime but here we are, and I'm very excited to just be able to contribute again to the team and not only run to the clubhouse to get waters and bananas and stuff like that.
Baker, on Altuve: That's Mighty Mouse. He's a bad little dude. He's one of the best players, I think, that I've ever seen. I was talking to him yesterday. I always wanted to win a batting title as a player. I came in third a couple of times and this dude has three batting titles.
*Brad Peacock has had a recurrence of the nerve damage in his neck. He's throwing at 90 feet, but his Spring Training is officially delayed.
*Forrest Whitley reported to camp 40 pounds heavier than last year in an effort to be more durable.
*ESPN has added a couple of Astros games to their April slate: April 7 vs the Mets, April 20 at Tampa.
*Forgive me if I'm a few days late on this, but FanGraphs revealed their Top 100 Prospects list. Forrest Whitley is the lone Astros prospect in the list, what with the graduation of Kyle Tucker and the Greinke trade. On Whitley: He wields one of the deepest repertoires in all of the mnors and, though the elite-looking changeup he showed during the 2018 Fall League was not present in 2019, all of his stuff is still above-average or better, both visually and on paper.
Game 4 Hero Jose Urquidy came in at 101. Meanwhile, Urquidy was one of five pitchers listed by The Athletic's Eno Sarris as having the stuff in a small sample size to warrant a breakout season in 2020.
Sign-Stealing Stuff *Chandler Rome: The Astros are seeking a return to normalcy on the field. McCullers: We apologized for it. I think you guys spoke to pretty much everyone on the 2017 team that's here in an Astros uniform. We meant what we said. We can't control how people feel yesterday or moving forward. We all addressed it. We all stand by what we individually said and we're looking forward to moving forward with a good 2020 club. Dusty Baker: It's all in the past now. I'm hoping the players don't have to answer any more questions about it. Because how many times can you say the same thing? It's time for us to get to work, put it behind us, ask for forgiveness. The guys said they were sorry.
*Nationals GM Mike Rizzo: Somebody's got to say the word over there - 'cheated' - and that's important to me. We keep skirting around the word, and they cheated. They were found guilty of it, and I haven't heard it yet...We did it with character, dignity and did it the right way. We feel good about that.
*The Athletic: New rules to prevent electronic sign-stealing are being discussed among MLB officials.
*Jake Marisnick: I'm a grown man in a situation that I can stop, and I didn't stop it.
*John Smoltz had a warning to players/teams/fans who are going all-in on the Astros hate, because it may turn out that they're not so clean, either.
*Trevor Bauer, unsurprisingly, has a lot to say about the Astros. A snippet: F*** you. You know? That's how I feel about their whole operation, especially, especially when you're so outspoken against stuff. If you take a stand and you're so firmly against stuff, you better f***ing make sure that you're not doing the stuff you're talking about.
Other Stuff *Minor Leaguers are getting a raise in 2021. Minimum weekly salary by level:
Rookie/Short-Season: From $290 to $400
Class A: From $290 to $500
Double-A: From $350 to $600
Triple-A: From $502 to $700
Okay, some news! That doesn't involve sign-stealing! For now!
*The Astros traded Jake Marisnick on Thursday to the New York Mets for two prospects. In 631 career games for the Astros (90.9% of his career MLB PAs were with Houston), Marisnick hit .232/.285/.396 with 53 HR / 173 RBI, 505K:91BB. Marisnick's career-high was a 1.8 fWAR in 2015. In 2018-2019 Marisnick posted a career 2.1 fWAR. Of course his defense - and his hair - was show-stopping and above-average. We all will miss Jake Marisnick.
The two prospects:
Blake Taylor is a 24-year old lefty pitcher who transitioned to the bullpen in 2019. Regard this 2013 2nd Round pick by Pittsburgh, in 2017-2018: 172.1IP, 166H/99ER, 155K:103BB, 5.17 ERA / 1.56 WHIP.
Now, 2019: 66.2IP, 49H/16ER, 74K:24BB, 3.38 ERA / 1.10 WHIP. Did I mention he's a lefty? He also replaces Marisnick on the 40-Man Roster, which still stands at 38.
Kenedy Corona is a 19-year old outfielder (he'll be 20 in March) who just finished up his first season of professional baseball, splitting time between the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League, with four games in the New York-Penn League. In the GCL Corona hit .311/.401/.483 with 25K:17BB in 181 PAs.
What does this mean for the Astros? In the bestest of case scenarios, Taylor could be a lefty option in the bullpen. For the immediate roster, however, obviously it opens up a spot in the outfield. Luhnow: We really like Jake and he's been such an integral part of all of our success. He's played an important role on our team, but when you look at the number of outfield options we have next year, we do have a lot of options. Verdict: True! In addition to the final year of Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and (gulp!) George Springer, the Astros have Myles Straw and Kyle Tucker.
On July 31, 2014 the Astros sent Jarred Cosart, Enrique Hernandez, and Austin Wates to Miami for Marisnick, Colin Moran, Francis Martes, and a Comp Round A pick in 2015.
Colin Moran was traded to Pittsburgh, in part, for Gerrit Cole.
Francis Martes is still with the Astros.
The Comp Round A pick in 2015 became Daz Cameron who was traded to Detroit, in part, for Justin Verlander.
*The Astros are targeting pitchers and catchers at the Winter Meetings, a little over two months before pitchers and catchers report. Luhnow: I'm excited the market seems to be moving more quickly this year and we're certainly going to be having all the relevant conversations in San Diego and I'd love to make a transaction or two. We'll have to wait and see how it goes. It is encouraging teams are active and players and agents are willing to do things earlier [than] they have in the past two years. That all bodes well for a more active San Diego Meetings.
*Speaking of pitchers, ESPN's Jeff Passan has a report in which sources tell him that the Yankees are making the signing of Gerrit Cole a priority. Passan: The Yankees' fondness for the 29-year-old Cole, whose fantastic 2019 season with the Houston Astros set him up to smash David Price's record contract for a pitcher of $217 million, was only reinforced during a meeting with him earlier this week, sources said...New York and the Los Angeles Angels, a team similarly smitten with Cole and in even greater need of pitching than the Yankees, are prepared for a bidding war that executives expect will reach well beyond $250 million, according to sources.
*You should really read David J. Roth in The New Republic on the Astros and the McKinsey connection. The close: All those merciless cullings and endless organizational refinements, all that data and all the brilliant minds and machines working it over, all resolving to some underpaid grunt in a folding chair whaling away on a garbage can because the members of the team's brain trust of thoroughbred data nerds simply took it for granted that they could get away with it. All that data, all those numbers, all those shifting variables continually delivered the same answer: What are you going to do, stop us?
The Astros beat the Mariners 3-0 for the second straight night to improve to a franchise-high 104-54 and are 50 games over .500 for the first time in franchise history. Houston is 9-1 in their last 10 games. There are four regular season games remaining. The playoffs start one week from tomorrow.
*Scoreboard Watching:
New York lost to Tampa, Los Angeles beat San Diego
Houston (104-54): -
Los Angeles (102-56): -2
New York (102-57): -2.5
Reminder that the Astros hold the tie-breaker on New York, so the Astros could clinch home field throughout the AL playoffs with a win tonight. The Yankees are off tonight before finishing their season with Arlington, who has lost nine of their last ten games, something you just hate to see.
After the games of last night, here's how the AL Wild Card standings...stand:
Oakland beat Anaheim, Tampa beat New York, Cleveland lost to the White Sox.
WC1: Oakland (95-63)
WC2: Tampa (95-64)
Cleveland (93-65) -1.5
*Anyhow, the Astros won their 104th game of the season, breaking a franchise record set all the way back in 2018. Hinch and the team celebrated with a champagne toast: We want to have a moment and recognize the type of season that we've had, franchise record number of wins. We have a chance to beat our own record the next few games. Just a great accomplishment as a team - a lot of players, a lot of coaches. Front office putting the team together. Everybody should be proud of this team, and our season is really just beginning with the postseason very close.
Houston went 18-1 against Seattle in 2019 and have won 13 games in a row against them. Thanks, Mariners. Houston and the 2019 Cleveland Indians are the only teams to win 18 games against an opponent in a season (Cleveland got the Tigers 18 out of 19 times).
*Zack Greinke was two outs away from a no-hitter when Austin Nola (who was 0x16 coming into that AB) singled to break it up. He's the first Astros pitcher to lose a no-hitter in the 9th since Mike Scott on June 12, 1988. Greinke: 8.1IP, 2H/0ER, 9K:1BB. He walked Dee Gordon in the 6th to end his walk-less streak at 29.1IP.
Nola only came into the game because Dee Gordon's back stiffened up after he collided with a teammate. Nola: I watched [Greinke] all game. He was unbelievable. I don't think he threw many balls over the middle of the plate. I was just going up there looking for somewhat of a decent pitch. I knew I wasn't going to get much good stuff, but it all worked out.
Mariners manager Scott Servais, on Greinke: It was art. He's out there just dealing and drawing it up the way he wants to. It's frustrating when he's on his game like that, because you really have to be disciplined at the plate. One of the things he's really good at is when he gets ahead in the count, the balls are just off the edge and they look like strikes. Veteran pitcher and he was really on top of his game tonight. Coming in after Cole, it's totally different styles.
More Servais, on facing Greinke: It is torture. Those guys, certainly different styles. That's the beauty of our game. Everybody doesn't have to be the same size or throw the hardest, whatever, there's a lot of different ways to be successful in this game.
Greinke, after losing a no-hitter in the 7th against Washington earlier this year: I don't really think about [no-hitters] that much. I just assume I'll never throw one. Just probably be more hassle than anything.
Legend. Greinke's next start will be Game 3 of the ALDS.
*Alex Bregman had three of the Astros' seven hits, two of them doubles (one of those on the 14th pitch of the AB). Bregman is hitting .298/.421/.595. He has 37 doubles. Three more and he joins 2000 Richard Hidalgo (42 doubles, 44 home runs) and 1997 Jeff Bagwell (40 doubles, 43 home runs) as the only Astros with a 40-40 season.
*Kyle Tucker hit the 3rd home run of his career in the 9th inning, extending the Astros' franchise record for consecutive games with a home run to 21.
*Jake Marisnick is 5x31 in September.
*Carlos Correa was out of the lineup last night. The Astros have played 320 regular season games since the beginning of the 2018 season. Carlos Correa has played in 185 (57.8%) of them. He turned 25 on September 22. Why was he out? His back was still tight after the flight from Houston to Seattle. Were this the playoffs, he'd be in the lineup, he said. Carlos Correa has had eleven PAs since August 19. He played September 17, September 20, and September 21.
A.J. Hinch announced that Correa won't play tonight at Anaheim, due to getting in so late. Hinch: I think it is smart for us to play it more cautiously. I'll feel better when he's on the field. There's a certain timing and rhythm and playing that he needs to do to make us all feel better. He played very well when he was active a few days ago.
*Chandler Rome talked to Gerrit Cole about his strikeouts, and Cole ended up talking about wins: Ultimately, it's a team stat. It's one of the things that I don't have as much control of as I think I do, but I'm as proud of it as any stat that I have. I'm looking forward to the opportunity [to win 20 games]. I think it would be really unique to have to guys win 40 games out of however many we're going to win, that would be really special and be really special for the guys playing behind us.
*In The Athletic, Jake Kaplan has three potential solutions to the Wade WTF Miley Conundrum in Game 4:
a) Jose Urquidy
b) Short-Rest Verlander
c) Bullpen Game for G4.
Thanks to Flick for taking the Hot Links yesterday morning while I was out pretending I'm not in my late 30s. Seeing Spoon was a bucket list item for me, Cage The Elephant played maybe the best show I've seen in the last 15 years (and turned me from An Appreciator to A Hardcore Fan), and Beck was as phenomenal as I expected him to be. His drummer went hard. Anyway. It was really cool to get to come to Houston this past weekend and hang out with a bunch of you, whether that was at the Disaster of the Lima Time Time Live Show, or the concert last night. You're all pretty solid people, and I appreciate you.
Random Notes
The Astros were off yesterday. Their next off-day is next Monday. This week's schedule:
Tue-Thu: at Cleveland
Fri-Sun: vs. Seattle
Houston has 55 games remaining. 26 of them are against teams above .500:
Cleveland (3)
Oakland (8)
Anaheim (10)
Tampa (3)
Milwaukee (2)
18 of the 26 remaining games against teams above .500 (prior to the games of July 29) are with Oakland and Anaheim, against whom the Astros are a combined 15-5.
Since losing seven in a row between Toronto, Cincinnati, and New York, the Astros are 20-9 with a collective .283/.355/.496 slash line and a 3.83 ERA / 1.23 WHIP with a 3.31 K:BB ratio. They good.
Astros News
*Jake Marisnick lost his appeal, because Joe Torre and MLB are spineless. He will sit tonight and tomorrow, and the Astros will just play a man down.
*The Athletic's Jon Greenberg ($) wrote up a profile of Tri-City manager Ozney Guillen and the future of the modern MLB manager. It's a really good read.
Trade Stuff The Trade Deadline is tomorrow at 3pm Central.
*As you know, the Mets have acquired Marcos Stroman. Stroman was apparently so upset that he wasn't traded to the Yankees, Red Sox, or Astros that the clubhouse was closed while he vented. Stroman is smart and says he's excited to be a Met.
Between STRO-MAN becoming a Met, and David Price's dog ASTRO going to Boston, I'm starting to think that there's nothing to read into these perfect coincidences. The Mets also traded Jason Vargas to the division rival Phillies, for a 25-year old catcher hitting .195 in his 2nd year at Double-A, but who went to school with Jeff Wilpon's son. Ultimately, the Mets are not smart. On a scale of usefulness, Tampons > Wilpons. The Inestimable David J. Roth: A Working Theory Of What The Mets Are Doing.
*Corpus won in 10 innings, 7-6. Abraham Toro was 3x5 with a double and 2HR/4RBI. J.B. Bukauskas threw 4.2IP, 3H/3ER, 4K:5BB. In his last four starts: 21.2IP, 13H/5ER, 26K:12BB. Erasmo Pinales threw 2IP and allowed 0H/0ER, 6K:2BB.
*Quad Cities lost to Beloit 11-3. Not much of note in this one.
*Texas Monthly: It only took a handful of people to wrongly convict Ed Ates of murder. It took an army to free him from prison. Now comes the hard part.
*Parents are giving up custody of their kids in order to qualify for need-based scholarships and tuition-assistance. This country is fan...[kisses bunched fingers]...tastic.
I missed the Hot Links yesterday because it was my daughter's birthday, and she was so pumped to eat All The Sugar in the World that I had to stop and accommodate this request. So the Astros had a chance to put their foot on the neck of the Waxahachie Rangers and Framber crapped the bed. Bregman took one to the chin. It was a shameful performance and everyone should feel bad about themselves, especially the Rangers, who actively use Devil Magic when playing the Astros. Houston lost 5-0 and are now 57-34. They are seven games up on Oakland and eight games up on Farmer's Branch.
*Framber Valdez became the first starting pitcher in MLB this season to allow four hits with three walks and record less than three outs. It's only the sixth time that has happened in Astros history and Framber's the first Astro to do it since Bud Norris on April 17, 2013 against Oakland. Hinch, on Framber: We've seen this out of him. The good version is really good. And the version that struggles, it's tough for him to manage innings and get out of innings.
Framber's three appearances from June 3-15: 17IP, 11H/3ER, 18K:4BB
Framber's three appearances from June 16-July 11: 7IP, 16H/15ER, 5K:7BB
*Shoutout to Cy Sneed, who threw 5IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:1BB. Hinch, on Sneed: He's a consistent strike-thrower, which is good, and his stuff is good...This game was still in hand when I brought him. For him to go five innings was critical for us to stay in the game.
According to Our Dude Steve Grande, Sneed is the first Astros pitcher with multiple 5+ Inning appearances in relief since Danny Darwin in 1988.
*Last night was the third time this season the Astros got 7+ hits and did not score a run.
*Houston was 0x4 w/RISP.
*George Springer was the only Astros with multiple hits, going 2x4 with the team's lone extra-base hit.
*The Astros had a chance to cut into the Rangers lead in the 2nd, with Reddick on 1st and Alvarez on 2nd with one out:
-Tyler White struck out swinging
-Robinson Chirinos struck out swinging
That was pretty much it.
*Alex Bregman was taken out of the game in the 3rd Inning when he got popped in the chin by a 98.5mph groundball from Shin-Soo Choo. Hinch: He was bleeding when I got out there. It took a really nasty hop for him. We'll see how he is.
Peacock and Joe Smith were both with the Astros in Arlington last night. Peacock: The big test was today, and I played catch and felt pretty good. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I feel good right now. Joe Smith: We got the volume up and got some people on base, and I had to try to work out of it. It's good to have that because it's going to happen at some point. Knowing the strength and stamina is still there to be able to do that is good.
On Diaz and Correa, Hinch: We want [Diaz] to do a few things around our Major League team, and he's going to join either Double-A or Triple-A. He's going to stop in [Arlington] on his way to his next stop, and Carlos is only a couple of days behind him. We should have both of those guys on rehab by the early parts of next week to start their work to get back to us in the big leagues.
*The next 13 games are against divisional opponents. Michael Brantley: The stretch is very important. Right out of the gate, it's a division rivalry. Texas has been playing great baseball. We have to come in ready to go, look fresh, and have a great series.
Gerrit Cole told Chandler Rome (previous link): I'd like to see us add. I'd like to see us add some good pieces, some impact pieces. I think with the people that we're competing against - not just in our division; we're looking for home-field advantage against the Yankees and the Red Sox and ultimately against the best team in the National League as well - I think those things weigh heavily on some of the outcomes of a series. It certainly makes it more challenging when you have to go on the road.
*Jake Marisnick was suspended two games and fined an undisclosed amount for his efforts to try to get past Jonathan Lucroy, who was blocking the plate. Joe Torre:
After thoroughly reviewing the play from all angles, I have concluded that Jake's actions warrant discipline. While I do not believe that Jake intended to hurt Jonathan, the contact he initiated in his attempt to score violated Official Baseball Rule 6.01(i), which is designed to protect catchers from precisely this type of collision. It's more fun if you read this quote, especially in which Torre says "Jonathan," in the same voice as Ian McShane in John Wick.
Marisnick: Obviously, I still feel terrible about it. It was a rough couple of days just going through...just kind of everything that happened. Had a chance to sit back and digest it. I've seen a lot of takes on it, and obviously everybody has their own opinion. But I know deep down in my heart that I had no intent to hurt, or make contact with [Lucroy].
A two-game suspension would cost Marisnick just over $27,000.
*Mike Petriello talked to A.J. Hinch about the Astros' current pace of becoming the first team in MLB history to not intentionally walk anyone.
*Do you want Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz? The Mets "want to be overwhelmed" by an offer.
*The Padres, Cubs, and Red Sox join the Dodgers, Braves, and Rays with the Astros as teams in on Detroit's Matty Boyd. Chris McCosky: Boyd, with three years of team control remaining, is the Tigers' most valuable trade chip. There are a lot of teams that like, want and need Boyd. Interestingly, among those tracking Boyd are the analytically-savvy teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Astros and Tampa.
*Fireworks have been avoided as the Cheatin'-Ass Cardinals put Yadier Molina on the IL with an injured thumb, likely from popping off like an internet tough guy on Instagram. He'll miss three weeks, including the Astros' visit to St. Louis later this month.
-The Orange County Register's Jeff Fletcher talked to some catchers at the All-Star Game...
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto: I've known Jake for a long time. He's a great guy. I know he wasn't trying to do any harm. It was just an unfortunate play that happens. It's tough to watch. I've been there, where you're going full speed, it happens so fast there's no way you can avoid it.
Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal: If your question is whether it's a dirty play or not, I don't think so.
Our Boy Alex Bregman: We love competing against Lucroy. He's a great player. We hope he recovers ASAP. In no way, shape or form did Jake try to make a dirty play. Would he ever try to make a dirty play? That's a no. At the end of the day, there should be no suspension.
*Here's an excellent piece in the LA Times on how the Astros got Yordan Alvarez for 2017 World Series Game 2 Hero Josh Fields after then-Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi thought the Astros wanted Cuban pitcher Yadier Alvarez (whom the Dodgers had just signed for $16 million and who now has a 14.73 ERA in 3.2IP for Double-A Tulsa).
*Justin Verlander will start Tuesday's All-Star Game, the first Astros pitcher to start an All-Star Game since Dallas Keuchel in 2015 and the oldest ASG SP since Kenny Rogers in 2006. Chandler Rome writes about Verlander's career renaissance in Houston. Verlander: Being able to step in and help that city and organization win a championship was one of the most amazing things I've experienced in my career. Not only as a player but just a person. I think it connected myself to that city almost immediately. So to be here now and be on the mound with the Houston Astros logo on my chest, starting the game means a lot.
*Verlander also made ESPN's front page for basically being Justin Verlander, and he ripped MLB a new one. Verlander, who has allowed a League-high 26 home runs (more home runs in 19 starts than he had allowed in a season from 2006-2015), says that MLB has juiced the balls to increase offense. Verlander: It's a f*cking joke. Major League Baseball's turning this game into a joke. They own Rawlings, and you've got Manfred up here saying it might be the way they center the pill. They own the f*cking company. If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically, it's not a guess as to what happened. We all know what happened. Manfred the first time he came in, what'd he say? He said we want more offense. All of a sudden he comes in, the balls are juiced? It's not coincidence. We're not idiots.
He's right. In June 2018 MLB bought Rawlings for $395 million. Upon the announcement, Chris Marinak (MLB's Executive VP for strategy, technology and innovation): MLB is excited to take an ownership position in one of the most iconic sports brands in sports and further build on the Rawlings legacy...We are particularly interested in providing even more input and direction on the production of the official ball of Major League Baseball, one of the most important on-field products to the play of our great game.
A couple of weeks ago Rob Manfred said that Rawlings was getting better at "centering the pill" of the baseball, creating less drag and making the balls fly farther. Manfred: It's important to say this, we think - including the number of home runs that we have out there - that we present a very entertaining product for our fans.
Manfred has unlocked a rather rare accomplishment: He has somehow, in a few ways, been a worse commissioner than Bud Selig. Consider (and my memory may be clouded here) that Selig presided over, and perhaps encouraged through tacit silence, the Steroid Era. People went nuts over the home run totals of McGwire and Sosa and became somewhat uncomfortable by Barry Bonds. "Think of the records!" people screamed. Selig sat silently by.
MLB, under Manfred, acquired a company with apparently the expressed intent of fundamentally changing the baseball to encourage home runs at a pace that would shatter previous offensive statistics. The Got Dang Twins have hit 166 home runs at the All-Star Break. They hit 166 home runs in all of 2018. You've read all the statistics, or you've seen it with your own eyes.
Jose Lima has the Astros franchise record for home runs allowed with 48 (2000) in 196.1IP, or 2.2 HR/9. The 2000 Astros allowed 234 home runs, worst in the National League, 1.44 HR/game. Verlander has allowed 26 in 126.2IP, or 1.8 HR/9. The 2019 Astros have allowed 138 HR, 1.53 HR/game, and that's just the 4th-highest HR total in the AL. You cannot tell me that the 2019 Astros pitchers - anchored by Verlander and Cole - is worse than the 2000 Astros pitching staff. You also cannot tell me that hitters in 2019 are that much better than hitters in 2000, the height of the Steroid Era. Manfred is not idly letting this happen, he's actively responsible for making this happen.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale: Are the balls the only juiced objects on the field? Colorado manager Bud Black: You can't help but wonder. You don't want to, but I think we all have our suspicions.
*Former Astros Great A.J. Reed was claimed off waivers by the Chicago White Sox. Reed, drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2014 Draft (the Brady Aiken Draft), had just finished up a season at Kentucky in which he hit .336/.476/.735, hitting 23 home runs with a 48K:49BB. He also went 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA / 1.13 WHIP. He made his professional debut later in 2014, hitting .289/.375/.522 between Tri-City and Quad Cities. Reed broke out in 2015 between hitter-friendly Lancaster and Corpus, hitting .340/.432/.612 with 30 doubles and 34 home runs. It was enough to give him Baseball America's #11 prospect ranking going into 2016 (#40 in MLB.com and #55 in Baseball Prospectus).
Reed was hitting .291/.368/.556 for Fresno when he got called up on June 25, 2016. He walked twice and scored two runs, with an RBI sac fly in his MLB debut. Hinch was excited about Reed's progress vs lefty pitchers. Reed struck out eight times in his next 13 PAs. In 141 PAs in Houston, Reed hit .164/.270/.262. That was that. Reed got nine total PAs in Houston in 2017 and 2018.
Well that was something. According to Win Expectancy, when Bregman struck out swinging in the 5th, the Astros had a 5.3% chance of winning that game. Fast forward a Yuli grand slam and some more hits and the Astros come away with an 11-10 win in 10 innings. Houston goes into the Break with a 57-33 record.
*The Astros have a .633 win%. Amazing because they've had about 70% of a starting rotation this season. If they get that rotation to, like, 80-90%? Shoot. Astros going undefeated in the 2nd Half.
*Houston has played 15 series at Minute Maid Park in 2019:
Series Wins: 11
Series Splits: 3
Series Losses: 1 (Freakin' Pittsburgh)
The Astros are 33-14 at home in 2019. They were 46-35 at home in 2018.
*I guess we can begin with what, I feel, should have been the go-ahead run: Marisnick's sliding play at home. While I know that Twitter videos are trash, this is the best one I can find, as it shows multiple angles and you get an idea of what Marisnick might have been thinking:
Here are several different angles of the collision at home between Jake Marisnick and Jonathan Lucroy. Marisnick went right to Lucroy’s side after he touches home. Lucroy was carted off after a scary sight at Minute Maid Park. #TakeItBackpic.twitter.com/KixPkDI6vM
*It felt to me as though Marisnick thought that Calhoun's throw was going up the line, so he committed to slide towards the inside of the plate. Lucroy caught the ball (good throw, Calhoun, though it pains me to say that) and tried to get in front of Marisnick. There are some issues here, which we will explore further. It did not feel malicious, to me. I'm not exactly an impartial observer, but I feel like I'm fair when it comes to criticisms of the Astros.
Notably, Rule 7.13 was passed prior to the 2014 season. It says:
-A runner may not run out of a direct line to the plate in order to initiate contact with the catcher...covering the plate. If he does, the umpire can call him out even if the player taking the throw loses possession of the ball.
Verdict: It looks, again, to me, that Marisnick got out of a direct line in order to avoid contact with Lucroy. Lucroy receives the ball with his glove - the outside of the basepath as Marisnick approaches the plate - and Marisnick, in a split-second decision, thought the throw might take Lucroy up the line and away from the plate, so he dove to the inside.
-The catcher may not block the pathway of a runner attempting to score unless he has possession of the ball. If the catcher blocks the runner before he has the ball, the umpire may call the runner safe.
Verdict: Lucroy was in possession of the ball, but was blocking the plate before he had possession. This is what forced Marisnick to pivot off his right foot and dive toward the mound side of the plate. Lucroy dove back toward the inside in order to tag Marisnick. Jake Marisnick is listed at 6'4" 220lbs. Lucroy is listed at 6'0" 200lbs.
-All calls will be based on the umpire's judgment. The umpire will consider such factors as whether the runner made an effort to touch the plate and whether he lowered his shoulder or used his hands, elbows or arms when approaching the catcher.
Verdict: Marisnick did put his arm up but only after Lucroy got back into the trajectory in which Marisnick had already decided upon. Getty's Bob Levey got this great photo of the actual impact:
Note that Marisnick's arms aren't targeting Lucroy at the moment of impact. I guess my Takeaway is that it was an unfortunate collision, but Marisnick was trying to score the go-ahead run in what was a dramatic comeback, and Lucroy was trying to prevent the Astros from scoring that run.
Angels manager Mike Scioscia Brad Ausmus thinks Marisnick deserves a lengthy suspension. Ausmus: It certainly didn't look like a clean play...It looked like Marisnick took a step to the left and bowled into him with his arm up. The call was right. MLB should probably take a look at it and consider some type of suspension quite frankly.
Let's back up a minute and see the first part of this quote: Ausmus It certainly didn't look like a clean play. I don't know what actually happened.... So it's confirmed: Brad Ausmus should shut the f up.
On Instagram, Yadier Molina had a few words to say: MLB (needs) to take action on this Bullsh*t play! Fu*k! Praying for Lucroy! slide slide slide fu*kkk (sic)! F*ck u if u think this is Ok..F*ck u!
Molina can join Ausmus. Ausmus, however, is defending his guys. Molina, however, is defending catchers. Ultimately this is just more fuel for you if you already hated the Astros. No one's mind will be changed.
Marisnick, in his own words: Through my eyes I thought the play was going to end up on the outside of the plate. I made a split-second decision at full speed to slide head first on the inside part of the plate. That decision got another player hurt and I feel awful. I hope nothing but the best for [Lucroy].
*The Astros were down 7-2 at one point. Their previous largest comeback was a 3-run deficit, so that's a nice little building block for the 2nd Half. Previous records/leads at the All-Star Break:
*Alright, to the game. The Astros were 6x22 w/RISP. I have a Baseball-Reference Play Index subscription, and I don't know how you look up the record for hitting with runners in scoring position, but I can't imagine that 22 ABs w/RISP is not somewhere high on the franchise record list.
*Yuli Gurriel hit a got dang grand slam. He has a home run in five straight games, and a home run in nine of his last eleven games. Consecutive games with a home run, franchise history:
-Ensberg (2006): 6
-Altuve (2019): 5
-Beltran (2004): 5
-Cliff Johnson (1975): 5
-Gurriel (2019): 5
So obviously this means the Astros have never had two different players enjoy a five-game homer streak in the same season before this season.
Yuli Gurriel has nine homers in 11 games, most by an Astro since Jeff Bagwell hit nine in 10 games in 2000. One of three Astros to hit nine in 11 games or less: The other is Glenn Davis, nine in 11 in 1990. From Elias Sports Bureau.
*Houston got six extra-base hits for the 21st time this season. They're 18-3 when they get 6+ XBH.
*Brantley had four hits for his second straight game. He's the 10th Astro in franchise history to have back-to-back four-hit games. Also on the list:
Altuve (4 times), Correa (2017), Berkman (2008), Tejada (2008), Bagwell (1995), Cedeno (1977), Wilbur Howard (1975), John Bateman (1966), Al Spangler (1963).
*Yordan Alvarez was 3x5 with 3RBI. He has 25 hits (14 of them for extra-bases) in his first 82 PAs. That seems high.
*Tyler White was 3x6 with an RBI. It's his 2nd 3-hit game of the season and the 10th 3-hit game of his career. The Astros are 7-3 when Tyler White gets three hits in a game. And he was 1x3 w/RISP! He is now 7x44 (.159) with runners in scoring position.
*Bregman (2BB) and Chirinos were the only batters to have multiple PAs and not get a hit.
*Pitching (whistles). Jose Urquidy got his mulligan from the Colorado start and, uh, it didn't go well. Urquidy, by inning:
1st Inning: 1H/0ER, 2K:0BB
2nd Inning: 0H/0ER, 2K:0BB
3rd Inning: 7H/5ER, 0K:0BB, WP
Anyone in the organization feel like stepping up and doing something for the rotation? No? Okay.
Let's recap the Astros' pitching depth coming into this season (this will be the subject of a lengthier post in the next three days):
-Justin Verlander: Great, gives up too many homers this season. Still awesome.
-Gerrit Cole: Better than Verlander, sign him to all the moneys
-Wade Miley: Brent Strom solidified his Legendary status:
-Brad Peacock: Hurt
-Collin McHugh: Bullpen
*Here's Jake Kaplan on why splitting Verlander and Cole makes sense. Coming out of the All-Star Break, Hinch is going with TBD (Thursday) then Cole, Miley, and Verlander, followed by another TBD on Monday. Hinch: We'll see if the high fastball that Verlander throws followed by someone who doesn't elevate a ton (in Miley), followed by somebody who can do everything (in Cole) - we'll see if that's a combo we like.
Chandler Rome: J.B. Bukauskas knows he has absolutely jelly-dicked around this first three months of the season. Bukauskas: I think we all had a little bit too high a standard for ourselves coming out of Spring Training, if that makes sense. Because then, as soon as there's any sort of failure, it's like, 'Oh, my gosh. What's going on?'...I think we need to take it all as a learning process and learn to adjust and develop and keep getting better.
Okay, well...no one was reinjured. The Astros dropped their fifth straight game, eclipsing a season-high they set on Wednesday. Houston is 48-28 which [takes off socks] is still 20 games over .500 with 85 games left in the regular season. This was the fourth straight game in which there was a rain delay.
*The Astros allowed 12 runs in the entire early April series against the Yankees, and gave up ten last night. Houston is 4-7 at Yankee Stadium since the beginning of 2017 (postseason included).
*Astros pitchers gave up four home runs - three in the 4th inning alone - for the 8th time this season. They've allowed 37 home runs in 18 June games so far, 13 in the last five games.
Hinch: They're dangerous whenever they get into these hitter's counts and it started from the very first hitter of the blowup inning. They showed how explosive they are. We couldn't keep the ball in the ballpark and the game kind of got away from us a little bit.
*Hector Rondon quietly had a 1-2-3 8th inning, striking out the side on 15 pitches. He had struck out three batters in his previous 5.1IP combined (22 batters faced). Rondon, June: 8.1IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:3BB (2.16 ERA / 0.96 WHIP).
*Houston batters hit four home runs for the 8th time. They're now 6-2 in those games. The Astros had hit four home runs in the previous five games combined.
*Jake Marisnick hit two home runs for the third time in his career, and the first since July 31, 2017. He had previously done it in May 2017. Historically, the Astros are 1-0 in the World Series in years in which Jake Marisnick hits two home runs.
*Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez homered (and Alvarez also doubled) like the Good Strong Boys They Are. Alvarez has five home runs in his first nine games, joining Carlos Delgado as the youngest to do it.
*This kid George Springer hit two home runs down at Corpus. Maybe bring him up and give him a shot? Seth Beer hit two home runs, as well, going 3x4 with a walk. Corpus hit six home runs in the game.
The plan for Springer is to take today off, then play Saturday and Sunday. Bregman: Oh, it's gonna be awesome. We're getting Jose back now, he's gonna get on a roll. Springer hit two homers today in rehab - he's coming soon. And then hopefully Correa heals quickly and he gets back. I think we're having a little rough stretch right now. But we'll be back.
Hinch has an update on that: I'm not sure [Correa and Diaz] are going to factor into the Major League team prior to the All-Star break. Their rehab calendars are still in pencil, and we're closing in on the last homestand before we hit July. I know Correa won't be available. I think the hope is that Diaz is still a little bit ahead of Correa.
*Jose Urquidy for Round Rock last night: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 7K:0BB. Urquidy has 95K:13BB in 70.2IP with a 3.69 ERA / 0.96 WHIP. Taylor Jones was 3x4 with two doubles. Nick Tanielu, Drew Ferguson, and Jamie Ritchie each had two hits in a 4-3 loss to Iowa.
*C.J. Stubbs hit a home run in his first professional AB in a 10-7 Tri-City win over Aberdeen. Joe Perez (2nd Round - 2017) was 3x4 with a walk, 2RBI, and his first career professional home run. Tri-City's coaching staff is a combined 81 years old and were all interested in learning the way the Astros do things.
*The NY Post's Ken Davidoff writes that the Yankees were right to hold on to Former Astros Great Cameron Maybin. The Yankees acquired Maybin from Cleveland for $25,000. The Indians are stupid (see: Brantley, Michael).
It's Father's Day. Shoutout to you dads who, like me, are just doing their best. We sometimes do a decent job, sometimes we crap the bed. But we're trying, and hope that the good days outweigh the bad and our kids turn out okay. There's a number of you who desperately want to be dads, but it hasn't been in the cards for you to this point. I very much understand that, and feel for you. I've been there. The Wife and I are 1x7 on successful pregnancies. If there is any way that I can lend an ear, be a shoulder, or help, please reach out and let me know. Email me at astroscounty at gmail dot com. Infertility issues are a different beast for you dudes, and I might be able to at least help a little. Also, I know there's at least a few of you who don't have great relationships (or any kind of relationship) with your father. I feel for you. These holidays are the worst for people who haven't enjoyed Hallmark lives, and I'm sorry for that.
Framber is good. Framber is handsome. If I order some apps, Framber can have some. Yordan is nuts. Super Jack had himself a day. The Astros handled the Blue Jays 7-2. They are 48-23, one game better than the 2017 Astros after the all-important 71st game of the season. Houston is 35-15 in their last 50 games, 30-10 in their last 40 games, 22-8 in their last 30. 15-5 in their last 20.
*2017 vs 2019 wins, by calendar month:
March/April: 16 / 18
May: 22 / 20
June: 16 / 9
July: 15 / ?
August: 11 / ?
September/October: 20
I got loose on Twitter the other night (alcohol was involved - it's summer) and said the Astros would win 107 games this season. In order for that to happen, the Astros will have to go 59-32 the rest of the season, that's a .648 win% after they've been winning at a .676 clip and not having Springer, Altuve, Correa, and Diaz for the better part of a month AND playing the 5th-hardest schedule in baseball to this point. And only 26 of the 91 remaining games are against teams currently above .500. And now they have Yordan. This team is scary.
*Yordan Alvarez was 3x4 with a solo home run. It's his 4th home run in his first five MLB games. Tyler White hit three home runs in his first five MLB games. This means absolutely nothing. HOWEVER! Yordan is the 4th player in MLB history to hit four home runs in their first five games, joining Trevor Story, Yasiel Puig, and Mike Jacobs. Hinch, on Alvarez:
I'm probably having about as hard a time describing him as you're having writing about him...It's been very impressive to watch him methodically go about his business like a much more experienced player than he is. He's soaking up all the information that we have, he's leaning on teammates and he's in the batter's box and in complete control of the at-bat.
*Jack Mayfield was 3x4 with three doubles. It's the 39th time in franchise history that a player has had three doubles in a game, and the first since Yuli Gurriel did it on April 6. Bregman did it twice in 2018, and that was it until Chris Carter did it in a 14-6 loss to the Cubs on June 23, 2013. McTaggart notes that Mayfield is the first Astros rookie to hit three doubles in a game since Terry Puhl in 1977. He's the third 2B in franchise history to have three doubles in a game, joining Mark Loretta, Craig Biggio, and Art Howe.
Oh, and Jack Mayfield was 2x34 for 2019 coming into this game. Baseball makes no sense, and that's why we love it...until we hate it because it makes no sense. Mayfield and Yordan are buddies, and it's Very Sweet.
*Tyler White was 2x3 with a walk. It's the 8th multi-hit game of the season for White, first since June 6. He had his 4th GIDP of the season, in four PAs (166 PAs). He GIDP'd once in 304 PAs spread out over 2017-18.
*Yuli Gurriel was 0x4. He's now hitting .255/.288/.390 on the season. The Astros won a game 7-2 with a .678 OPS in the 3-spot.
*Myles Straw was 2x4 with 2RBI. It's the 3rd multi-hit game and the first multi-RBI game of his career.
*Framber Valdez straight up FRAMBUSHED the Blue Jays, throwing 6IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:2BB. He struck out nine Angels on September 23, 2018 for his career-high. Oh, and check out how he got buzzed by a line drive that took out his hat.
Framber's two starts, 2019: 13IP, 9H/3ER, 15K:2BB. I like him.
*Chris Devenski recorded six outs with no runs for the third time in 2019. He struck out two batters for the 8th time this season. Devenski's last nine appearances: 11IP, 7H/3ER, 17K:6BB. All three earned runs came against the Brewers on June 11.
*Jake Marisnick didn't play last night after leaving Friday's game with "knee discomfort," the Death Knell of Astros Announcements. Hinch said that it might not be too bad. He won't play for a couple of days.
Meanwhile, Wade Miley just hit a ball off the train tracks in batting practice and bat flipped it.
*Round Rock beat up on Seattle's Triple-A team, which is apparently not their MLB team, 14-0. Cy Sneed threw 6.2IP, 2H/0ER, 5K:2BB. Kyle Tucker went 3x5 with 2HR/5RBI, his 22nd and 23rd homers of the season. It is the middle of June. Drew Ferguson went 4x5 and Josh Rojas hit his 1st Triple-A homer of the year.
*Former Astros Great Trent Thornton (5th Round - 2015 draft), whom the Astros traded for Aledmys Diaz, will start today's game for Toronto. He's 1-5 with the Blue Jays in this, his first major-league season, with a 4.78 ERA / 1.41 WHIP. Thornton, via Chandler Rome:
I'll be honest. At the very beginning of the season, when I made the team, I was seeing when we were playing Houston. I was just praying to God I'd get to face them.
*The Fake-Ass Mariners apparently traded Edwin Encarnacion to the Yankees. Not ideal, October-wise. Please have a 13-2 banner ceremony come March 2020, Dipoto, you piece of garbage. Jerry Dipoto's existence makes me feel sad for Mariners fans, 60% of whom are a good and loyal group.
