Showing posts with label Hector Neris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hector Neris. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Oh I guess the Winter Meetings started, marking the end of this eternal offseason slumber...in theory, anyway. Let's see who said what and what it may or may not mean. 

*Dana Brown is "not entertaining" trading Alex Bregman. Check out this Chandler Rome article, where he's as incredulous as I am that Dana Brown and Jim Crane haven't discussed a budget yet.

*The Astros will get a 4th option year on Forrest Whitley, who will apparently report to Spring Training as a reliever, because Dana Brown is "not interested in overpaying for a reliever."

That's smart. Because some idiot gave Rafael Montero a 3yr/$34.5m contract a year ago and set the market way too high. As soon as we find the guy that did that we ought to whoop his ass. 

So it's interesting to note that the Astros are allegedly interested in free agent Cy-Creek guy Jordan Hicks. And have talked to Hector Neris about re-upping.

*Dana Brown says things aren't to the "exchanging medical information" stage yet but things are "heating up."

*Joe Espada wouldn't name an everyday CF yet, saying that Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick will play in Spring Training. Mauricio Dubon will play everywhere.

It's a tough one. On one hand you have Jake Meyers, proud owner of a career 88 wRC+ (albeit with a 7.8 DEF rating). On the other you have Chas McCormick, fresh off a 133 wRC+ and a slightly worse 3.2 DEF rating. That 133 wRC+ is 3rd among CFs with at least 300PAs, behind Cody Bellinger and Mike Trout's 134 wRC+. McCormick was 8th among CFs with at least 300PAs in fWAR, at 3.8 - better than Brandon Marsh. But you know, lotta winter left before you make a decision. 

Okay. I guess I should have made this more clear. Yes, Chas can play LF and Jake can play CF. That's in play. 

*Joe Espada has talked to Yainer Diaz "once a week" since Espada took the reins. On the backup side, the Astros have allegedly been in contact with catcher Tucker Barnhart, giving Real Gs the opportunity to have a fantasy team named "Kyle Tucker Barnhart."

*Speaking of backup catchers, the Angels, White Sox, Padres, and Marlins are interested in the services of Martin Maldonado.

*A few days ago the Astros signed reliever Kervin Castro to a minor-league deal. He's not in the mix for 2024 as he's recovering from Tommy John Surgery.

*You can get tickets to the Astros Foundation College Classic, featuring ut, UH, Texas State, Vanderbilt, LSU, and the University of Louisiana - March 1-3, 2024. 

Elsewhere

*A.J. Hinch signed a long-term extension with the Tigers.

*Toronto has apparently met with Shohei Ohtani. But maybe not.

*The Athletic: Quincy Promes, and how Amsterdam's criminal underworld preys on [soccer players].

*Esquire: La Cote Basque, 1965.

*Outside: Running the Nakasendo, an ancient postal route across the Japanese Alps.

*The Texans haven't won seven of their first 12 games since 2019, when they started out 8-4. 

A Musical Selection


Check out the Spotify version here.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Some guys became available around MLB. If I'm Dana Brown, I'm looking for pitching help. Let's take a look at that, and more? I guess.

*Hector Neris declined his $8.5m option for 2024. Neris threw 133.2IP for the Astros in 2022-23 with a 2.69 ERA / 1.03 WHIP with 10.5 K/9. If I'm Neris, I'm taking a picture of Rafael Montero with me to any meeting and saying, "Give me more than he got."

*Lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez has opted out of his contract with Detroit, leaving 3yrs/$49m on the table to go to free agency. Rodriguez has posted 3.0+ fWAR in three of the last four seasons. 

*Marcus Stroman opted out of his deal with the Cubs, leaving 1yr/$21m on the table. Stroman has made 50 starts in the last two seasons, totaling 4.7 fWAR with Chicago.

*San Diego and Nick Martinez declined their respective options. Martinez was worth 1.4 fWAR in 2023, his Age 32 season, appearing in 63 games with nine starts.

*Seth Lugo opted out of his deal with San Diego. Lugo posted 2.8 fWAR in 26 starts. 2024 will be his Age 34 season. 

*San Diego also declined the 2yr/$32m option on Michael Wacha. Wacha posted 2.6 fWAR in 24 starts for the Padres.

*Tampa placed reliever Jalen Beeks on waivers. Beeks had an ugly 5.95 ERA in 42.1IP but with a 3.82 FIP.

*Lefty reliever Joely Rodriguez only threw 11IP in 2023, but Boston declined his option for 2024.

*Cody Bellinger declined his option and is a free agent.

Bellinger, 2017-2019: .278/.369/.559, 111 HR/288 RBI

Bellinger, 2020-2022: .203/.272/.376, 41 HR/134 RBI

MAN. If only we knew about what happened between the 2019 and 2020 seasons that changed the way Bellinger, or any member on the Dodgers, really, approached the plate. Crazy to think that after three seasons that included a Rookie of the Year and an MVP award that someone would just forget how to hit. I wonder what might have changed. Nice that he remembered how to hit without getting any signals in 2023 though. 

*Chicago declined their $14m option on shortstop Tim Anderson for 2024, who said in 2020 that he - and presumably the rest of the White Sox - were going to approach the Astros trying to "knock everybody's heads off - from the owner down to the trainer."

*Within his Sunday Links post, FanGraphs' David Laurilia tells us that Former Astros Great Marwin Gonzalez became just the fifth player in MLB history to homer in both the World Series and the Japan Series. The Japan Series was a tale of two fanbases.

*Thank you to the University of Oklahoma, who made sure I get to watch college football the rest of the season with no anxiety whatsoever. 

*Fluminense beat Boca Juniors in dramatic fashion to win the Copa Libertadores.

*Eight things running and the creative process have in common.

*Happy First Day of Daylight Saving to all of us who love the darkness.

*A Musical Selection:



Sunday, October 8, 2023

Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Astros enjoyed OktOBERfest haha got em. Hector Neris made it interesting, but the Astros go to Game 2 of the ALDS with a 1-0 lead for the 8th time since 2015, and the 7th straight time from 2017-2023. Houston is 22-7 in the ALDS since the beginning of the 2015 postseason (20-4 since 2017).

*Jose Altuve hit a first-pitch homer to open the game. It's his 24th postseason home run. He needs five more to tie Manny Ramirez for the most in MLB history. It was also his first postseason homer since 2021 World Series G4 - a span of 13 postseason games. 

Altuve RBI, 2022 Postseason: 0

Altuve RBI, 2023 Postseason (so far): 1

Houston Astros with a leadoff postseason home run:

Jose Altuve, G1 2023 ALDS

George Springer, G5 2020 ALCS

Craig Biggio, G7 2004 NLCS

*Justin Verlander is now tied for 2nd all-time with 35 postseason starts. He started Game 1 for an MLB-record 13th time. 

Verlander needed 23 pitches to get out of a (scoreless) 1st Inning. He only had three innings as an Astro in 2023 where he threw more: 2nd Inning September 30, 2nd Inning August 27, and 2nd Inning August 11. He took a little while to settle in:

1st Inning: 23 pitches, 0H/0ER, 0K:2BB

2nd Inning: 13 pitches, 2H/0ER, 0K:0BB

3rd Inning: 19 pitches, 1H/0ER, 1K:0BB

4th Inning: 10 pitches, 0H/0ER, 1K:0BB

5th Inning: 13 pitches, 0H/0ER, 2K:0BB, HBP

6th Inning: 15 pitches, 0H/0ER, 1K:1BB

Verlander got two GIDPs in the first two innings, the most he's induced in a game since May 10, 2022 against...the Twins. It's just the 27th time in his career he's gotten two GIDPs in a start, playoffs included, and the 3rd time he's gotten two GIDPs in a postseason outing. G1 was his 545th career MLB start. 

Dusty, on Verlander:

Early, he was forcing his breaking ball...he couldn't get it over. He got in trouble a couple times early, but if you don't get to JV early, he usually finds his groove.

Postseason Wins, MLB Career:

1. Andy Pettitte: 19

2. Justin Verlander: 17

3. John Smoltz: 15

4. Tom Glavine: 14

5. Clayton Kershaw: 13

Verlander, regular season career: 18 seasons, 257-141, 3342K:925BB, 3.24 ERA / 1.12 WHIP

Kershaw, regular season career: 16 seasons, 210-92, 2944K:669BB, 2.48 ERA / 1.00 WHIP

Verlander, postseason career: 36 appearances, 17-11, 236K:71BB, 3.54 ERA / 1.11 WHIP 

Kershaw, postseason career: 39 appearances, 13-13, 213K:51BB, 4.49 ERA / 1.11 WHIP

Verlander:

It's been a whirlwind of a year, season for me. To find myself back here in Houston and pitching in the playoffs is not something I foresaw, but happy to be here, happy to help contribute, and happy to be in the playoffs.

*Jeremy Pena was 1x4. He has at least one hit in 13 of his 14 career postseason games. 

*Yordan Alvarez hit a two-run homer in the 3rd, the 7th postseason home run of his career, and the second consecutive postseason game with a home run, going back to the when he turned the game upside-down in G6 of the 2022 World Series. Yordan has at least one RBI in four straight postseason games. 

Worth mentioning that Yordan Alvarez has 199 career post-season plate appearances, and just one GIDP. 

2+ HR games, postseason, Astros history:

Jose Altuve: 3 - G1 2017 ALDS

Yordan Alvarez: 2 - G1 2023 ALDS

Kyle Tucker: 2 - G1 2022 World Series

Michael Brantley: 2 - G4 2020 ALDS (somehow I have zero recollection of this)

George Springer: 2 - G2 2020 ALDS

Carlos Correa: 2 - G1 2020 ALDS

George Springer: 2 - G3 2018 ALDS

Carlos Correa: 2 - G4 2015 ALDS

Carlos Beltran: 2 - G5 2004 NLDS

Yordan:

When I go up there, I try not to think about the situation, try not to think about the noise. Just say to myself, 'I'm the only one that can get the job done at this moment.

Dubon, on Yordan:

It's not easy to face him in general. You have no idea what he's going to do. He can hit a ball out dead center 460 feet or he's on his front foor and (hitting) it out 400 feet. Pick your poison - what do you want?

Twins pitcher Caleb Thielbar had not allowed a home run to a lefty all season. Lefties big, righties small...Yordan hits them all.

*FanGraphs: Behind Verlander's arm, and Yordan's bat, the Astros snatch Game 1. 

*Jose Abreu now has at least one RBI in five of his career eight postseason games. The Athletic: A healthy Jose Abreu now has a clean slate in front of him.

*Hector Neris had not allowed a home run since August 14. So of course he gave up a 3-run shot to make it 5-3 Astros in the 7th and then another one a batter later to make it 5-4. Neris had only given up two homers in a game five times previously in his career. The last time he gave up multiple homers was June 29, 2018. 

Neris, 2022 postseason: 6IP, 2H/1ER, 9K:0BB

Neris, 2023 postseason; 0.2IP, 3H/4ER, 2K:0BB, HBP

*The Astros were 2x10 w/RISP, the Twins were 1x12 w/RISP.

*Kendall Graveman was left off the ALDS Roster because he is literally butthurt. 

*It was the 48th time the Astros have won a postseason game with Carlos Correa in uniform:

Wins with Correa as an Astro: 47

Wins with Correa as a Twin: 1

Elsewhere in the playoffs:

Rangers 3 - 2 Orioles. FanGraphs has it: Rangers 72.6 - 27.4 Orioles

Phillies 3 - 0 Braves. FanGraphs: Phillies 59.9 - 40.1 Braves 

D'Backs 11 - 2 Dodgers. FanGraphs: D'Backs 61.7 - 38.3 Dodgers

Other Stuff

*Two climbers were stranded on a big wall. An iPhone saved the day.

*A 1994 UFO sighting changed lives. What if this guy made it up? 

*The Struggle Is Awesome. 

What To Watch, October 8:

Roma @ Cagliari: 11am Central

Texans @ Falcons: 12pm 

Barcelona @ Grenada: 2pm

Rangers @ Orioles: 3:07pm

Twins @ Astros, 7:03pm

*A Musical Selection:



Thursday, October 5, 2023

Thursday Night Hot Links

Doing this tonight so I have time to do something else in the morning. Nothing has changed in the FanGraphs Playoff Odds. Here's what else is going on in and around the Astros...

*Justin Verlander will start Game 1 on Saturday at 3:45pm, Framber Valdez will start Game 2 on Sunday at 7:03pm. We don't know who starts Game 3, but it will be Tuesday in Minneapolis at 3:07pm.

Verlander, career, ALDS Game 1: 23.1IP, 21H/12ER, 25K:11BB

This is clouded, somewhat, by his 2022 ALDS G1, in which he gave up 10H/6ER, 3K:1BB in 4IP against Seattle - the game that Yordan walked off when the Mariners hilariously threw Robbie Ray. 

*Dusty, on Minnesota:

Nobody gave them a chance to beat Toronto, I don't think. They've got good pitching, they've got good defense, they've got a number of left-handed hitters, which poses a problem. They've got a good manager. I mean, they're a good team.

*The Chronicle's Matt Kawahara has a good piece on the Astros' ALDS roster decisions, which have to be finalized Saturday morning,

*Chandler Rome's Notes Column in The Athletic runs down the following:

-Michael Brantley is available for the ALDS

-Get ready to watch a lot of Yainer Diaz on the bench in the ALDS

-Jose Urquidy will shift to the bullpen, which pretty much ensures Cristian Javier will start Game 3. 

-There will be some promotions in the front office this offseason

*Dusty Baker would very much like everyone at MMP to be quite loud.

*Here is MLB.com's position-by-position breakdown between the Astros and Twins.

*Hector Neris has been fined for his actions "against" Julio Rodriguez, but he won't be suspended.

*FanGraphs: The 30/30 Season That Wasn't, Then Was, Then Wasn't (And Still May Be)

*A former Astros video room employee answered questions on Reddit about the Ben Reiter doc on PBS.

*Minnesota's Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon are enjoying the Twins' ride, despite just sitting there wanting to play. Click the link for other notes from Minneapolis. 

*Former Blue Jays Manager John Gibbons STFU Challenge.

*ESPN: Which impending free agents have made - or lost - the most money in the playoffs so far?

*The Mets and the very-recently-resigned Billy Eppler are under investigation for abusing IL rules.

*Jose Altuve, by postseason series, career:

2015 AL Wild Card vs New York: .250/.250/.250, 1RBI, 1K:0BB

2015 ALDS vs Kansas City: .136/.174/.136, 1RBI, 2K:1BB

2017 ALDS vs Boston: .533/.632/1.133, 3HR/4RBI, 2K:4BB

2017 ALCS vs New York: .320/.414/.560, 2HR/4RBI, 5K:4BB

2017 World Series vs Los Angeles: .194/.219/.452, 2HR/6RBI, 7K:1BB

2018 ALDS vs Cleveland: .286/.286/.571, 1HR/2RBI, 2K:0BB

2018 ALCS vs Boston: .250/.348/.300, 2RBI, 4K:3BB

2019 ALDS vs Tampa: .350/.381/.900, 3HR/5RBI, 3K:1BB

2019 ALCS vs New York: .348/.444/.652, 2HR/3RBI, 1K:4BB

2019 World Series vs Washington: .303/.294/.394, 1RBI, 3K:0BB

2020 Wild Card vs Minnesota: .000/.222/.000, 1RBI, 0K:2BB

2020 ALDS vs Oakland: .400/.526/.800, 2HR/5RBI, 3K:3BB

2020 ALCS vs Tampa: .462/.563/.885, 3HR/5RBI, 5K:6BB

2021 ALDS vs Chicago: .313/.476/.625, 1HR/3RBI, 5K:4BB

2021 ALCS vs Boston: .125/.214/.375, 2HR/4RBI, 3K:3BB

2021 World Series vs Atlanta: .222/.250/.482, 2HR/2RBI, 9K:1BB

2022 ALDS vs Seattle: .000/.059/.000, 6K:1BB

2022 ALCS vs New York: .188/.278/.250, 5K:2BB

2022 World Series vs Philadelphia: .308/.333/.385, 3K:1BB

*Astros Postseason Record When Altuve Gets...

0 Hits: 13-16

1 Hit: 21-11

2 Hits: 16-6

3 Hits: 6-3

*Astros Postseason Record When Altuve Homers: 16-5

*Most Career Postseason Home Runs, MLB History:

1. Manny Ramirez: 29

2. Jose Altuve: 23

3. Bernie Williams: 22

4. Derek Jeter: 20

5. Albert Pujols / George Springer: 19

7. Carlos Correa / Nelson Cruz / Reggie Jackson / Mickey Mantle: 18

*Esquire: The Scout Who Found Patrick Mahomes

*The Ringer: Inside the Ugly Standoff Between James Harden and Daryl Morey.

*Rolling Stone: The 50 Best Latin American Rock Albums

*In the wake of Kevin McCarthy's historic ousting as Speaker of the House of Representatives, I took a look at the last time the House tried to body-check the Speaker (all the way back in 1910).

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Sunday Morning Clinchin' Hot Links

The Astros do not care for Making It Easy. Houston wins 1-0 to clinch at least a playoff spot. A win today combined with a Ramger loss gives Houston the division, though we'll talk in a few minutes about whether or not that's something you want. Houston is 89-72. There is one game remaining in the 2023 regular season.

*AL Playoff Picture

1. Baltimore (101-60)

2. Six Flags (90-71)

3. Minnesota (87-74)

4. Tampa (98-63)

5. Toronto (89-72)

6. Houston (89-72)

7. Seattle (87-74)

So the permutations for the Astros for G162 are as such:

HOU win + 6FL loss = AL West Title

HOU win + 6FL win + TOR win = 3rd Wild Card

HOU win + 6FL win + TOR loss = 2nd Wild Card

3rd Wild Card is a matchup against Minnesota

2nd Wild Card is a matchup against Tampa.

Houston is -178 in the Money Line, Seattle is -120 today.

*AL West Odds / Postseason Odds:

FanGraphs:

Six Flags: 71.6% to win AL West / 100.0% to make playoffs

Houston: 28.4% to win AL West / 100.0% to make playoffs

Seattle: 0.0% to win AL West / 0.0% to make playoffs

Baseball-Reference:

Six Flags: 69.6% to win AL West

Houston: 30.4% to win AL West

*If you just took the teams with the six best records in the AL, Seattle and Minnesota would be tied at 87-74 with one game to play. Instead, Minnesota has locked up the #3 spot and Seattle is cleaning out Layne Staley shrines in their lockers today. 

*Here's what we know about the Postseason Matchups:

1. Baltimore will have a Wild Card round bye.

2. Tampa will host the Wild Card Round against the #5 team. 

3. Minnesota will host the Wild Card Round against the #6 team.

The Wild Card Round starts Tuesday. The Division Series starts Saturday. 

In the NL, Atlanta and Los Angeles have clinched 1st Round byes. Milwaukee has clinched the #3 spot. 

*Houston is going to the postseason for the 7th year in a row. Franchises to make the postseason 7+ years in a row:

New York Yankees: 13 (1995-2007)

Los Angeles Dodgers: 11 (2013-2023)

Atlanta: 11 (1995-2005)

Houston: 7 (2017-2023)

MLB: How the Astros got to the 2023 Postseason.

Chandler Rome: The Astros' celebration after last night's game was muted. The ragers are reserved for something else...which could come today. Verlander:

The celebration was a bit muted. Keep your eye on the prize. 

*The Astros have won three straight games for the first time since sweeping the Ramgers from Sept 4-6. 

*It's the Astros' 2nd 1-0 win of the season, the first being against Tampa on April 26.

*The Astros have won back-to-back games scoring a total of three runs. It's the fewest total of runs scored in back-to-back wins since the Astros won 2-0 at CitiField on June 30 and 2-1 against the Yankees on July 1, 2022. 

After what was a far lengthier and more exhaustive search than I had imagined due, in part, to both myself and B-Ref forgetting my Username/Password, the last time the Astros won back-to-back games scoring a total of three or fewer runs was June 20/21, 1992, when they beat the Dodgers 1-0 and 2-0.

*Houston was 1x8 w/RISP. 

*Jose Abreu had the game-winning RBI off a double - it's the second game in a row that Abreu has driven in all of the Astros' runs. Abreu has a three-game RBI streak. In September, Jose Abreu has 26 RBI in 25 games.

*Alex Bregman enjoyed hisself a double - his first extra-base hit since hitting a home run on September 19. Bregman is hitting .232/.348/.343 in September.

*Justin Verlander recorded his 3,342nd career strikeout last night, tying him with Phil Niekro for 12th all-time. He's 25 short of Max Scherzer for 11th, and 29 short of Greg Maddux for 10th. Verlander, on last night's start:

Five innings is not what I consider a job well done. I'd like to have gone deeper, but to hand it over to the bullpen tonight and have them perform the way they do, Hector stepping up was absolutely huge, it makes it easier on us starters.

*Kendall Graveman has a 2.45 ERA with Houston on a 4.89 FIP. Out of 163 qualified relievers, the -1.73 difference from ERA (3.12) to FIP (4.89) is the 159th luckiest. Hector Neris ranks 162nd with a -2.12 ERA-FIP.

Graveman has pitched in 23 games for the 2023 Astros. He has allowed at least one baserunner in 20 of those appearances. He hasn't thrown a clean inning (no hits, no walks) since August 26 - a span of 11 games. 

*And speaking of Hector "Los Cojones Grandes" Neris, he threw 1.2IP of hitless/scoreless relief, getting out of a Graveman-induced jam to preserve the narrowest of leads. It's his longest outing of the season since getting six outs on April 3. Neris has allowed one earned run since August 19 - a span of 17.2IP. 

*Bryan Abreu got the save last night, extending his scoreless outing streak to 27 games, tied with Joe Sambito for the 3rd-longest in Astros history, only behind Ryan Pressly (40 games), and Ryne Stanek (30 games). 

*Kyle Tucker, who has hit three home runs in September, needs a home run today for a 30/30 season. 

*J.P. France wasn't available to pitch on Friday because his wife was dehydrated and in the ER. I've been there. It's terrifying.

*Get ready to figure out if you'll be able to stream from Space City Home Network.

*Roger Clemens talked about his World Series showdown vs Miguel Cabrera.

*Big strong boy Cal Raleigh is pissed about the Mariners missing the postseason for the 21st time in the last 22 seasons. The Frisch's Big Boy:

We've got to commit to winning. We have to commit to going and getting those players. You see other teams going out, going for it, getting big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up. 

Seattle's last ten games were against the Astros and Rangers. In the nine that have been played, they went 3-6. That's not going 2-7 against the MF A's and GD Royals, but it's close. General Manager Jerry Dipoto has already traded a $1 bill for a Reese's Pieces. The plan has been initiated. 

*Liverpool was denied a game-changing goal in the most hilariously VAR way possible. Jurgen Klopp is pissed, understandably.

*What To Watch, October 1:

Rays @ Blue Jays: 2:07pm Central

Astros @ Diamondbacks: 2:10pm 

Rangers @ Mariners: 2:10pm. Dane Dunning will start on short rest against George "No Mames" Kirby.

*I'm reading "Wanderers" by Chuck Wendig and hooboy...

*When Gordie Howe turned Houston into "Howeston."

*A Musical Selection:



Friday, September 29, 2023

Friday Morning Hot Links

The Astros did not play last night. I could not wake up yesterday morning. I went to sleep about 9:30pm, before the Astros started scoring Runs on Wednesday night, woke up, went back to bed, and after a couple of get-ups to eat some lunch and go to the bathroom, I didn't actually wake up until about 5:30pm yesterday. If I have to Rip Van Winkle myself through the playoffs, I will do it. 

The Mariners scored two runs in the 9th inning to beat the Rangers 3-2. 

Speaking of playoffs:

*AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore (100-59)

2. Denton (89-70)

3. Minnesota (85-74)

4. Tampa (97-62)

5. Toronto (88-71)

6. Houston (87-72)

7. Seattle (86-73)

*AL West Division / Postseason Odds

FanGraphs:

Denton: 85.5% / 97.4%

Houston: 9.0% / 76%

Seattle: 5.5% / 33.5%

*Here's what has to happen the rest of the weekend for the Astros to Win the Division:

Houston goes 3-0 (putting Houston at 90 wins), Seattle goes no worse than 2-1, Rangers go no better than 1-2. By my count that's about it.

To make the Wild Card spot:

Houston has to match Seattle, since Seattle has the tie-breaker. So if Seattles goes 2-1, the Astros can go 2-1 but not 1-2. And so on. 

Here's a handy guide from the Chronicle.

*Julio Rodriguez still feels disrespected by the Astros and by Hector Neris. The Mariners lost five of six to the Rangers and Astros in the last week. Whatever you gotta do to find a little fire, my guy. Rodriguez thinks Neris used a homophobic slur. Neris says he didn't. MLB is looking into it.

*Joey Loperfido and Spencer Arrighetti have been named Astros Minor-League Player and Pitcher of the Year, respectively.

*The Athletic looked at who would make a better ALDS match-up for the Twins. Hint: it's not Houston.

*Number of Astros with 10+ Homers, 1994-2023:

11: 2023, 2017, 2015

10: 2019, 2018

9: 2000

8: 2022, 2021, 2016,

7: 2006, 2004, 2003, 2001

6: 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 1999, 1998

5: 2014, 2009, 1996

4: 2013, 2011, 2010, 1997

3: 2012, 1994

2: 1995

*The Orioles won the AL East, a day short of six months since FanGraphs put them at 1.3% to win the division.

*The Braves will have open-to-the-public workouts as they wait for the NLDS to start.

*Please never forget that Curt Schilling is absolute garbage.

*The Ringer: Dissecting Radiohead's "In Rainbows"

*How Corny Dog Queen Amber Fletcher Prepares for the State Fair of Texas.

*What To Watch, September 29:

Sevilla @ Barcelona: 2pm Central

Maple Leafs @ Canadiens: 6pm

Utah @ Oregon State: 8pm

Astros @ Diamondbacks: 8:40pm

Rangers @ Mariners: 9:10pm

*A Musical Selection:



Sunday, September 17, 2023

Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Astros continue to insist on not being a serious team, losing yet again - this time 10-8 - to the 48-101 Royals. 4.2% of the 2023 Royals season wins have come in the last two days against the so-called "defending World Series champion Astros." Seems to me like the Astros aren't defending anything. 

*AL Playoff Picture, dumb as it is:

1. Baltimore (92-56)

2. Houston (83-66)

3. Minnesota (78-71)

4. Tampa (92-58)

5. Rockwall (82-66)

6. Toronto (82-67)

7. Seattle (81-67)

*AL West Division Odds

FanGraphs:

Houston: 60.3%

Seattle: 20.2%

Rockwall: 19.4%

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 57.0%

Rockwall: 25.3%

Seattle: 17.7%

*For the second day in a row every single AL West team lost, so I guess there's no harm no foul? Sure would have been nice to, you know, beat one of the two worst teams in the league and extend this lead. Houston has lost four of their last five, and five of their last eight games.

*The Astros are now 1-4 against the A's and Royals in September, two teams who are a combined 94-203, getting outscored 26-18 in the process. 

*The Royals came into the night with the 2nd-fewest walks of any American League team, and the 3rd-worst OBP in the AL. So of course the Astros walked them six times - just the 10th time the Royals have taken six walks in a single game this season. 

*Houston pitchers managed to only strike out one Royal (and it was by Joel Kuhnel, who did it with two outs in the 9th. The last time Houston only struck out one batter in a game was September 10, 2020.

*Kansas City is now 6-30 when they give up eight runs in a game. The Astros are now 29-3 when scoring eight runs in a game. 

*Pitching was freaking terrible. 

J.P. France: 4.1IP, 5H/5ER, 0K:4BB. 

Bullpen: 4.2IP, 5H/5R (2ER), 1K:2BB.

There were three unearned runs thanks to errors from Pena and Bregman - the 14th error of the season for each of them, and Rafael Montero walked in a run. Just a cursed game from start to finish. Bregman:

We've got a small lead in the division but we need to play better baseball. It starts with me. I need to make that play today. We need to execute better.

Dusty:

The leadoff walks really hurt us. And with a team that has speed and runs as much as they do, when you walk them, you're asking for trouble. We had some real big hits, but it was the leadoff walks and a couple of errors, and we opened the gates for them, and they walked through.

The Astros walked the leadoff batter in three of the nine innings, and each leadoff walk came around to score. Again, the Royals have drawn the second-fewest walks in Major League Baseball and have the 5th-worst OPS among the 30 teams. 

*France's last three starts: 15.1IP, 15H/11ER, 10K:12BB, 4HR, a 6.46 ERA (7.69 FIP). He had walked 12 batters in his previous seven starts dating back to July 25. France:

Yeah, they were frustrating. But I mean, the word I keep using for that outing was just 'unbelievable.' They didn't chase a whole lot. But the stuff they did chase somehow found grass. I had one hit that was three balls off the plate, I had one that was three balls down. So yeah, I just couldn't get swings and misses for some reason.

I guess France didn't allow a home run, so that's nice. It was the first time since August 12 that France hadn't allowed a dinger. 

*Having tied the game at 6-6 thanks to Jose Altuve's welcome arrival to this week, Hector Neris: 1IP, 2H/3R (1ER), 0K:1BB - the first runs he'd allowed since August 19. His three runs allowed (though two were unearned) are a season-high, at the worst possible time. Neris has a 1.93 ERA but a 4.05 FIP. 

*The run that Joel Kuhnel allowed in the 9th snapped a little four-outing scoreless streak he had working in September.

*Shoutout to the top of the lineup, who remembered that the Astros need to win these games. Altuve-Bregman-Alvarez went a combined 7x14 with 6RBI - three of them came on Jose Altuve's 17th home run of the year. 

Number of seasons with 20+ HR, playing 90% of their games at 2B:

Jeff Kent: 11

Robinson Cano: 8

Craig Biggio/Rogers Hornsby/Dan Uggla: 7

Bret Boone/Brian Dozier/Joe Gordon/Ryne Sandberg: 6

Jose Altuve/Ian Kinsler/Chase Utley: 5

*The 5-6 hitters (Abreu-McCormick) were the only batters in the lineup without a hit, combining to "go" 0x8 with 4K:2BB. I have no idea why Jose Abreu is hitting 5th. 108 batters have received 500+ Plate Appearances. Abreu's -1.0 fWAR ranks 108th. There are only two other batters with that many PAs and a negative fWAR and guess fking what: they play for the gd Kansas City Royals (MJ Melendez and Sal Parez...who combined to go 2x6 with 3RBI last night). 

Abreu's ranks among 108 batters with 500 PAs:

fWar: -1.0 (108th)

BA: .235 (T-94th)

OBP: .295 (103rd)

SLG: .365 (104th)

wRC+: 82 (105th)

Abreu hitting 5th is about five spots too high. 

*Chas McCormick's last eight games: 3x23, 8K:1BB, .130/.167/.130.

*Kyle Tucker, September: .200/.305/.380.

*The Astros are auctioning off items from last night's salute to the Negro Leagues, all benefiting the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.

*Framber Valdez takes on Former Astros Great Jordan Lyles today. 111 pitchers have thrown at least 100IP, and Lyles' 6.44 ERA is 110th. So I'm assuming a CGSHO is on the cards. Lyles has faced the Astros eight times in his career and is 2-2 with a career 3.98 ERA. 

*McTaggart has a cool season-ending profile on 2023 1st Round pick Brice Matthews.

*The Astros had conversations this summer with the Red Sox about the availability of Alex Verdugo.

*And so Shohei Ohtani's season - and likely his tenure with the cursed Angels - is done. In six seasons (including 2020) with the Angels, Ohtani hit .274/.366/.556 with 171 homers, three All-Star selections, a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP award (and a 2nd place finish, as well), and a Top 5 Cy Young nod. As a pitcher, he went 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA. Ohtani was worth 19.9 fWAR as a hitter and 11.8 fWAR as a pitcher, for 31.7 fWAR. They paid him $39.7m. In the same time span, Mike Trout posted a 31.5 fWAR, meaning the Angels got 63.2 fWAR from two players since 2018. 

Yet in those six seasons (well, five seasons and a Mickey Mouse season with a Mickey Mouse World Series) the Angels have gone 368-461 (a .444 winning percentage). They never had a winning season. They never finished higher than 3rd in the AL West. Just a completely criminally mismanaged franchise, and I hope it continues forever and ever. 

*Longest streak of winning their respective division, team history, 1961-present (to weed out all those New York years where the commissioner(s) operated in franchise mode to help the Yankees win):

11: Atlanta (1995-2005)

9: New York Yankees (1998-2006)

8: Los Angeles (2013-2020)

5: Philadelphia (2007-2011); Cleveland (1995-1999); Oakland (1971-1975)

4: Detroit (2011-2014)

3: Boston (2016-2018); Houston (2017-2019; 1997-1999); St. Louis (2013-2015; 2004-2006); Anaheim (2007-2009); Minnesota (2002-2004); Toronto (1991-1993); Pittsburgh (1990-1992; 1970-1972); Kansas City (1976-1978); Baltimore (1969-1971)

2: Tampa (2020-2021); Washington (2016-2017); Rockwall (2015-2016; 2010-2011; 1998-1999); Chicago Cubs (2016-2017; 2007-2008); San Diego (2005-2006); Arizona (2001-2002); Chicago White Sox (1993-1994); Milwaukee (1981-1982); Cincinnati (1975-1976; 1972-1973)

1: San Francisco (2021, 2012, 2010, 2003, 2000, 1997, 1989, 1987, 1971, 1962); Seattle (1995, 1997, 2001); New York Mets (1969, 1973, 1986, 1988, 2006, 2015)

0: Miami; Colorado.

*Former Phillies manager Charlie Manuel suffered a stroke.

*Bob Odenkirk talked to NME about his time on SNL.

*The Ringer: The Deion Sanders Experience Is Unlike Anything College Football Has Ever Seen.

*American Sepp Kuss is set to win the Vuelta a Espana today, the second American to ever do it and the first since Chris Horner in 2013. 

*What To Watch, September 17:

Leeds @ Millwall: 6:00am Central

Colts @ Texans: 12:00pm

Rays @ Orioles: 12:35pm

Boston @ Toronto: 12:37pm

Rangers @ Guardians: 12:40pm

Astros @ Royals: 1:10pm

49ers @ Rams: 3:05pm

Dodgers @ Mariners: 3:10pm

The regular season ends two weeks from today.

*A Musical Selection:


Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

These twats. I swear. Tweeted this out last night but it feels as though the 2023 Astros win most of the games they want to win and just kind of half-ass the games they think they should sail through. Houston loses to the 99-loss A's 4-0. They're 82-63, 37-36 at Minute Maid Park, or "home" as some people would call it. The Mariners lost to the Angels. The Rangers beat the Blue Jays. The 63rd loss of the season ensures the Astros won't win 100 games.

*AL Playoff Picture

1. Baltimore (91-52)

2. Houston (82-63)

3. Minnesota (75-69)

4. Tampa (89-56) 

5. Toronto (80-64)

6. Aledo (80-65)

-

7. Seattle (79-65) -0.5

*AL West Odds (and change from yesterday):

FanGraphs:

Houston: 78.6% (-3.2%)

Seattle: 14.1% (-0.5%)

Aledo: 7.3% (+3.7%)

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 74.1% (-7.7%)

Aledo: 13.0% (+6.8%)

Seattle: 12.9% (+0.9%)

The Game

*Astros teams to win fewer than 100 games, franchise history: 1962-1997, 1999-2016, 2020-2021, 2023. 

*The DAMF Astros were shutout for the sixth time this season, and the third time at Minute Maid Park. They've scored two or fewer runs in five of their last eight home games. 

*They were held to three hits - all singles, and all at the top of the lineup: Altuve was 1x3 with a walk. Jeremy Pena was 2x4. 3-9 went a combined 0x22 with 5K:1BB. 

*It's the 7th time this season Houston has been held to three or fewer hits, and the 7th time (different set of seven, tho) they didn't record an extra-base hit. 

*After hitting 16 home runs in three games at Aledo, Houston has two home runs on this four-game homestand. 

*Bregman-Tucker-Alvarez went 0x5 w/RISP. 

*Dusty:

It wasn't necessarily our offense. It could've been their pitching. The first guy, Miller, we hadn't seen him and he was throwing 100. Then they switched to a guy that was completely the opposite. Sometimes that opener works. Waldichuk, he was changing speeds, high fastballs, a lot of changeups. We were in the fourth or fifth inning...before we could spit.

A's manager Mark Kotsay:

We've had a few good games of late against some playoff-contending teams. But tonight - in terms of on the mound - this was probably the best pitching performance we've had all year.

Oakland has won three of their last five games against a combination of Toronto, Aledo, and Houston. They had not shut anyone out since August 18 - it was their fifth shutout of the year. 

Times Oakland has allowed 12+ runs: 8

Times Oakland has shutout their opponent: 5

*14 of the 17 hardest-hit balls in play came off of Oakland bats. The hardest-hit ball was by Yordan Alvarez in the 9th inning, with Altuve on second, Pena on first, Alvarez unleashed a 114.1mph liner with a .770 xBA...right at whatever faceless droid making $2.13/hour + tips plays right field for Oakland. 

*Framber got Verlander'd: 7IP, 4H/3ER, 10K:1BB. He's the 8th pitcher in 2023 to put up a line like that and still get the loss. It's only the 12th time that an Astros pitcher has gotten 21+ outs, allowed four or fewer hits, struck out 10, and walked 1 and lost. Verlander has five of the other eleven, no kidding.

*It was the first time in MLB history that a team 50+ games below .500 shutout the "defending" World Series champion on the road. This needs to be taped to every single locker in the clubhouse.

*Jose Altuve was the AL Player of the Week.

*Astros Notes from Chandler Rome include: Dana Brown would get it if the Astros hire a President of Baseball Operations, J.P. France as Playoff SP3, Neris staying in Houston in 2024, and Kyle Tucker pricing himself out of an extension (for which the Astros would only have themselves to blame).

*American Sepp Kuss has a 1:37 lead coming out of the last rest day of the 2023 Vuelta a Espana.

*What To Watch, September 12:

Rangers @ Blue Jays: 6:07pm

A's @ Astros: 7:10pm (if you're naughty)

Angels @ Mariners: 8:40pm

*A Musical Selection:



Sunday, July 9, 2023

Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Astros beat the Mariners 3-2 to improve to 50-40, snapping a two-game skid. Framber did Framber Things. The Offense did Offense Things. They're the 4th AL team to hit 50 wins. The Astros are two back of the Rangers, and are guaranteed to head into the Break no more than three games back. 

Game Number of 50th Win, Astros recent history:

2023: 90

2022: 77

2021: 83

2019: 80

2018: 77

2017: 74

2016: 92

2015: 92

2014: 120

2013: 146

*The Astros improved to 10-10 in 1-run games. 

*After scoring six runs in the final game of the Rockies series, the Astros have scored five runs in the last three games. 

*Houston won despite only getting four hits, improving to 1-9 when recording four or fewer hits. 

*Alex Bregman has an RBI in consecutive games for the first time since June 24-25. He has two extra-base hits in his last 58 PAs. 

*Framber: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 6K:2BB. He ends the first half with a 3.2 fWAR, 2.51 ERA. He's one of five pitchers to post at least a 3.0 fWAR in the first half (Gauman, Gallen, Wheeler, and Strider are the others). 

Dusty:

We needed it very badly against them. We were 1-4 [vs Seattle] going into today and...we wanted to pick up a game or two this weekend. And the fact Texas lost. I didn't think they had a good chance of losing, but baseball is baseball.

Framber wants to start the All-Star Game.

*Bullpen: 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:4BB. Hector Neris loaded the bases with nobody out in the 8th, and got out of it, somehow. Scott Servais on the Mariners' half of the 8th:

We had them against the ropes and couldn't deliver the knockout punch. On the road, you've got to score and not just, like, get one in that inning. In my mind, I'm hoping we get two or three when you get the bases loaded. Then you look up and [Neris] wiggled his way out of it.

Matt Kawahara notes (first link) that Saturday was Neris' 110th appearance since the beginning of the 2022 season. Provided he doesn't finish 2023 on the IL, the club option for 2024 converts to a player option. 

*Ryan Pressly walked a batter for the first time since June 20 - a span of 27 batters between walks. Pressly's last ten games: 11IP, 0H/1R (0ER), 11K:4BB.

*Martin Maldonado hit the go-ahead homer in the bottom of the 8th to provide the game-winning run. It's the latest in a game he has homered since September 21, 2022. Five of his six home runs in 2023 have come with the bases empty.

*Yordan, Bregman, and Tucker all have 55+ RBI, the first time since 2001 that the Astros have had three players with 55+ RBI before the All-Star Break.

*Ronel Blanco was optioned to Sugar Land, and Joel Kuhnel was brought up. Blanco can be optioned two more times this season before being put on outright waivers first.

*Mauricio Dubon has had a fortuitous first half.

*Yordan Alvarez took BP prior to the game and hit balls 107, 109, and 111mph.

*The MLB Draft is tonight! Check out MLB.com's final Mock Draft (Ty Floyd and Ralphy Velasquez are in the mix) and ESPN's final Mock Draft (Brock Wilken and Cameron Johnson).

SETX-area guys in ESPN's projected first 70 picks include Blake Mitchell (Sinton HS) and Kendall George (Atascocita HS). And the Chronicle put together a full list of Houston-area draft prospects.

*Elly De La Cruz got a single, and then proceeded to steal 2nd, 3rd, and home. 

*Bob Huggins is Hugginsing things up, naturally.

*The best movies on Amazon Prime right now.

*A Musical Selection: