Astros underserving MVP votes

In working on a different post that I ended up scrapping, I came across something interesting. In 1969, Houston catcher Johnny Edwards received an MVP vote. Now, I'm sure it was from some Astros beat writer who was just throwing one of his favorites a bone (you'll see why later), but it got me thinking...how many unworthy Houston players have received award votes? Let's waste some time and find out. Baseball Reference explains that a WAR under 2 is below starter level, so that will be my cutoff.

1969 - Johnny Edwards (1 pt, t-36th) appeared in the voting. Edwards was an All-Star with Cincinnati from 1963-1965, but his best years were behind him by '69. Edwards hit .232/.306/.333 with six home runs, good for just 1.6 WAR.

1973 - Lee May (9 pts, 19th). May hit .270/.310/.479 with 28 HR and 105 RBI, but totaled just  1.5 WAR, due to his well below average defense.

1980 - Joe Niekro (3 pts, 19th) is a surprising inclusion here, as he looked to have a good year on the surface. Niekro went 20-12 with a 3.55 ERA, for a surprisingly low 0.9 WAR. That ERA was actually 7% below league average that season, though. He did add another 0.9 WAR at the plate, though, after hitting .275 with 5 doubles and 10 RBI that year.

1995 - Derek Bell (12 pts, 14th) barely makes the cutoff here due to missing the last month of the season. Bell hit .334/.385/.442 in 112 games with 8 HR and 27 SB, totaling 1.9 WAR.

2008 - Jose Valverde (3 pts, t-24th) makes the list, mainly because relief pitchers WAR is usually lower due to the limited number of innings they pitch. Valverde had 44 saves with a 3.38 ERA, 1.3 WAR.

2009 - Miguel Tejeda (3 pts, t-23rd). Tejeda hit .313/.340/.455 while tied for the league lead in doubles with 46. His degrading defense dragged him back down, though, as he ended up with 1.9 WAR.

Valverde's feeling froggy

Valverde is feeling his oats in Detroit.

“I can do maybe 74 saves. This is a good team here. I know I can do more than 50 saves with this club.”

Fallas, coming through!

Bernardo Fallas has an interesting blog post about the Astros' negotiations with Tejada during the 2009 season:

The fact is that at some point last year, the Astros held talks with Tejada about having him stick around for another season - at third base. Tejada, however, wanted the type of job security only a multiyear deal provides. So he and the team said their goodbyes and went their separate ways.

Fallas notes that he's not sure if talks got far enough to the point of exchanging dollars, but:
I am willing to bet the Astros' offer would have been, at the very least, comparable to the Orioles', bonus potential included.

Giving Tejada upwards of $7m is obviously $2.5m-ish over what the Astros got Pedro Feliz for. Would $2.5m have made a difference to the Astros' payroll? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But the fact is that Tejada and Valverde may have seriously misread the market, and only screwed themselves.

Fernando Rodney arranged his own replacement

In a move worthy of the late shift at the supermarket, new Angel Fernando Rodney was apparently instrumental in bringing Jose Valverde to the Tigers, in part so that he wouldn't feel bad about bailing.

Valverde:
"All the time, I talked to Fernando he told me, 'There's a good energy over there. You'd be happy over there because everybody, the GM, the manager, everybody's good over there."

Valverde tired of being "a loser"

At his press conference today, new Tiger Jose Valverde says that that he's excited to be a Tiger, and not to be...ahem...somewhere else:

"I'm so excited right now. The Tigers are one of the teams everybody there wants to play for. But this is the time for winning. I don't want to be a loser every year. I want a ring on my finger."

Get those post-out celebrations under control. That'll go a long way towards not being a loser every year.

Work with me here. Did Ed Wade force the Tigers' hand?

Just a little Sunday morning stream-of-consciousness here, so work with me (because maybe you've already thought this through. I had not, until this morning.):

Thought: By signing Brandon Lyon, Ed Wade made it inevitable that Detroit would sign Jose Valverde, resulting in the two extra draft picks.

A timeline of events:

December 1 - Tigers offer arbitration to Fernando Rodney
December 7 - Rodney, Lyon decline arbitration
December 8 - Jose Valverde declines arbitration.
December 9 - Brandon Lyon signs with Houston for 3-years/$15 million.

Okay, the Tigers really had four options to close in 2010: Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Ryan Perry, and Brandon Lyon. When Rodney and Lyon declined arbitration, that left Zumaya, who has a history of injuries, and Ryan Perry - who has thrown 61.2 IP in his career, and will be 23 in February.

As soon as Valverde declined arbitration (arguably the most questionable decision of the off-season, from a player's standpoint), the question became, "Who can afford Valverde?"

The Astros desperately need to re-stock their farm system, having missed out on being a part of the conversation for Jake Peavy (Roy's BFF) and Roy Halladay (which wasn't going to happen, anyway) because of the sins of 2006-2007. What's the best way to re-stock a farm system? Extra picks. It was pretty obvious from Valverde's comments that he was hell-bent on free agency, consequences be damned. So offering arbitration to Valverde was a much lower risk than it was offering arbitration to Tejada, whose expressed interest in staying Houston was clear.

The basis of the idea of arbitration is to offer compensation to teams who can't hold on to good free agents. The Astros offered arbitration to Valverde, moderately secure that someone else was going to sign him, and the draft picks would roll in. It was iffy for a while, but luckily Valverde and his agent crapped the bed and declined.

Valverde's options were limited. From published reports, there were only a handful of teams that needed a closer: Nationals, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Tigers. It became fairly clear that there were even fewer teams that might be able to do take his salary.

The Marlins, who would pay $5.75/hour to players if they could, wouldn't likely do it. The Nationals aren't in a win-now mentality. The Diamondbacks, who are actively trying to reduce payroll, were a long-shot, and that left the Tigers. Hypothetical/rhetorial question: Did Ed Wade know this?

The Tigers were a more attractive option for the Astros than any of the other teams because they finished in the top half of the overall standings, meaning their first-round pick wasn't protected. Presumably, the Astros knew that, as well.

Two days after Valverde declined arbitration, the Astros signed Brandon Lyon, reducing the Tigers options for available closers. The AL Central is a division similar to the NL Central, in that it's generally a winnable division (less so for the NL Central, who have Holliday/Pujols, Wainwright/Carpenter). The Indians, Tigers, and Twins are close enough that any of those three times could feasibly win the division.

So by signing Lyon, the Astros significantly increased the Tigers' chances of needing a closer via free agency. We all know that 2012 is a target date for the Astros' return to respectability. The Astros signed Lyon through 2012, and the two extra picks (that's four picks in the first two rounds) will undoubtedly make the Astros a much better team in the future. Is $5 million per year over the next three years worth the opportunity to secure the future of the organization for the next decade? I think so. And maybe Ed Wade did, too.

Dave Cameron / Rob Neyer react to Valverde

From FanGraphs' Dave Cameron:
Seriously, in a market where everyone else is finding bargains, the Tigers pay $7 million a year for a good-but-not-great relief pitcher, and give up a draft pick for the right to do so. Were they not paying attention to the rest of the contracts being handed out? Did they not realize they were bidding against themselves? How do you justify dumping Curtis Granderson to save money, and then use that money (and more!) to sign a flyball reliever with command problems who has never pitched in the AL?...

...For one year and a team that had money to spend, the salary wouldn’t be that bad. But two years and a loss of a draft pick? Really? In this market? On a team that is going cheap at second base and in center field?

Sorry, but this is a bad use of resources.

And reaction to that, and the deal, from Rob Neyer:
But a pitcher like Valverde -- any relief pitcher, really -- should be the final ingredient. You fill all the other holes you can fill, and when you're satisfied with your catchers and your first baseman and your second baseman and your shortstop and your third baseman and your three outfielders and your four best starting pitchers ... When you're satisfied that you've done everything you can possibly do at all those spots, then you start worrying about the guy who's going to pitch 65 or 70 innings.

If you've done all that and you've still got $14 million rattling around in your pocket, sure, by all means, go sign Jose Valverde and fork over a draft pick. But the Tigers haven't done all that. In a year or two, this may be a really, really tough move to justify.

Can I just mention how happy I am that everyone is questioning the wisdom of an organization, and for once it's not the Astros?

The Apparatus could not be happier for the Tigers

(If you're new to Astros County, "The Apparatus" is what we call the Front Office)

Some reactions from The Apparatus regarding the Tigers' signing of Jose Valverde... (both the Chronicle and Astros.com quotes are in here)

Bobby Heck:
It helps expedite the restocking of our farm system, which is an ongoing business. We’re excited to have this type of opportunity.”

Ed Wade:
We saw the Valverde situation as a win-win. If Jose had accepted arbitration, we would have been very pleased. Once that possibility ran away from us, the next best thing would be to secure additional draft picks, and this worked out as well as we could possibly have anticipated. As it turned out, we were able to satisfy the back end of the bullpen with Lyon and Lindstrom, and to score Draft picks -- particularly a first-round Draft pick -- is very satisfying. I like what he did for us and we would have loved to have him back, but at end of the day we have to look at end results, and we felt that being able to add two additional Draft picks in 2010 is a pretty favorable conclusion for us."

#19, baby!

Yahoo's Tim Brown is reporting that Valverde has agreed to a deal with the Tigers. What is this deal?

2 years, $14 mil. Third year option for $9 mil.

So a $7 mil/year average, with an option that could push it to almost $8m/year over the life of the contract. Valverde got his multi-year deal, not as much as he would have received through arbitration, but more guaranteed money. Good for him. His agent may have just saved his job. But mainly, good for the Astros. It was a gamble that ultimately paid off.

We'll have two of the first 19 picks in the 2010 draft, and a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd Round (which McTaggart says will be #34).

Jim Bowden's reaction:
The Houston Astros best move this off-season? When the Tigers agreed with Valverde giving Houston the 19th overall pick in round 1 of draft

Valverde to Cardinals? It's a possibility...

Yahoo's Tim Brown reports that Valverde has offers from the Cardinals, Tigers, and "one other."

UPDATE: Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals are "not actively involved" in talks with Valverde. You know how often being passively involved results in big bucks...
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However, the Detroit Free-Press says the Tigers have the biggest offer for Valverde's services.

Obviously it would be nice to get Valverde out of the National League, let alone the Central. And the Tigers hold the 19th overall pick, while the Cardinals hold the 24th overall pick. The Tigers have had an offer on the table for a few days, at least, and you get the idea that if it was a good deal, Valverde's agent would have taken it. Or perhaps Valverde's agent still figures that he has some bed-crapping yet to finish. But the fact that Valverde hasn't taken that deal yet means there's still some life for the Cardinals, and every hour that passes looks worse for the Tigers.

With the Holliday signing, the NL Central is the Cardinals' to lose in 2010, so them adding Valverde would only strengthen their likely grip on the division. But the Astros aren't going to do a whole lot, so regardless, we're getting an extra 1st round pick out of this. If I could pick, I would want Valverde in Detroit, but staying in the NL Central means that Valverde doesn't have to learn a new league.

Valverde-to-Detroit thing getting some traction

This is moving along rather quickly. The Detroit News is pushing the Tigers to sign Valverde.

What's borderline amusing about the Tigers is that they have a sellout crowd of pitchers five weeks before spring camp opens in Lakeland, Fla., and no real closer.

Dave Dombrowski, the Tigers general manager who seems not to find this situation at all humorous, understands the need to lash down a genuine ninth-inning shutdown reliever in the aftermath of Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon signing with new teams for 2010.

Reporter Lynn Henning also quotes an anonymous NL scout:
"As far as I'm concerned, he was the best closer available this year," the scout said. "He throws strikes, he knows his role, and he understands his job is to get people out as quick as he can. I would never have a problem with Valverde as a closer. He's basically a fastball pitcher whose ball has a lot of life at the plate. It will either bore in, or rise, and he really doesn't need anything else. The split (split-finger fastball) is fine, and if he gets into a situation where he needs it, he'll use it. But I'm actually sometimes amazed at how he can throw 15 fastballs in a row and get three guys out. He repeats his delivery very well. And, if you do that, you're going to throw more strikes. Most pitchers can't do that -- somebody (hitter) is going to time him. But when he comes into a game, it's over."

Henning:
And so Valverde is being romanced by a Tigers team that otherwise loves its potential pitching depth heading into spring camp.

I'm betting that Valverde is a long-walks-on-the-beach kind of guy...

And MLB.com's Jason Beck has some info on the Tigers and Valverde:
The Tigers currently stand as the most interested and most logical destination for free-agent closer Jose Valverde, if they can find common ground on a contract. Not all of the price Detroit would pay, however, would be written in the fine print.

When it comes to giving up a Draft pick to sign Valverde, though, the Tigers are set up to handle it better this year than most.

Valverde to Detroit?

Good news for Astros fans as MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez references a Fox Sports report that Valverde is closing in on a deal with Detroit, and says Arizona's interest "has waned."

The Web site added, however, that it's not likely that the Tigers met Valverde's asking price -- not even on a one-year deal.

I don't care what number they settle on. The only one that matters to me is #19.

How do you think Valverde's agent feels, knowing he probably cost his client - the same client who hired him to represent his interests - up to $5 million?

Tigers GM on the cost of Valverde

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski had this to say about the cost of giving up that first-round draft pick to sign Valverde:

"You look at every different circumstance. You never want to give up draft choices of any type -- first, second or third round. If you are thinking of doing that, you weigh where the draft pick is and the player involved. You also look at whether it's going to be a strong draft or a weak draft. The way I've always approached it is that you have to weigh a lot of factors."

So...

Tigers really couldn't care about Valverde

In Jason Beck's article on the Tigers' interest in Valverde, we see that maybe they're not so concerned about their bullpen. And maybe the Diamondbacks aren't, either. Meaning that Valverde's agent has changed the feces-stained bedsheets, and proceeded to soil them again.

Neither the Tigers, nor the D-Backs - who are believed to be at their budget -- nor any other clubs in the market for a closer appear to be in that kind of financial range. In the Tigers' case, their abundance of young relief talent -- including closing prospect Daniel Schlereth from last month's trade of Edwin Jackson -- has given them another reason not to pursue a longer-term deal for any closer. There were indications the Tigers might've been a little more willing to consider a second year when they were talking about their own free-agent relievers, including Brandon Lyon, but both Lyon and Fernando Rodney signed elsewhere.

Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski said earlier this week that he's "content" with his club's bullpen options if they don't sign anybody else, leaving Ryan Perry and Joel Zumaya as the likely competitors for the closing job. However, Dombrowski also said he's "open-minded" about finding ways to improve if any moves make sense.

Zumaya has four saves. Valverde has 116.

Olney, on Valverde

In Buster Olney's new blog post, he takes on the Valverde Situation:

Heard this: Jose Valverde, the most accomplished reliever on the market, is asking teams for an annual salary of $8 million, and he has made it clear he only wants to be a closer, so far. The Pirates and Marlins, two teams that need closers, certainly won't pay him that much; the Tigers need a closer, but in an offseason in which they've done some financial belt-tightening, it remains to be seen whether they would go that far.

It's obvious that Jose Valverde's agent crapped the bed on the decision to not accept arbitration, and the Astros will - at some point - reap the benefit of it. Valverde's asking $8 million - same as what he made in 2009 - is not likely to happen for the exact reason that Olney put forth, but you have to wonder if he's high-balling potential suitors to make a $5 million deal more attractive.

Valverde has four offers

Yahoo's Tim Brown is reporting this:

Source: Valverde has four offers, two of more than one year, all to be a closer. Arizona and Detroit are in.

Tejada #2 on Heyman's best remaining free agents list; Valverde #5

Jon Heyman's new column has to do with the remaining free agents, now that Bay and Holliday have signed. Johnny Damon is #1, but here comes Miggs next...

Even after a terrific offensive season, his market appears surprisingly thin. The Giants and Phillies signed their third basemen, leaving the Cardinals as the most logical landing spot. St. Louis is believed to want to keep it to a one-year deal, perhaps for $8 million, but eventually the sides should be able to work it out. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested the Holliday might diminish the Cardinals' chances for Tejada. But this is probably his best option. Tejada is a solid choice to play third base and replace Mark DeRosa, who went to the Giants without a fight. If Tejada can't work it out with the Cardinals, he might have to turn to one of the two Texas teams, the Rangers or Astros.

With Feliz in the fold, I don't see a return to Houston as an option for Miggs.

And on Valverde:
The terrific closer apparently didn't want to accept arbitration with the Astros, and now may wind up regretting that call. He probably could have earned at least $10 million via arbitration, but it appears now that the teams looking for closers aren't going to be willing to go there. The Tigers and his former Diamondbacks team look like they may be looking for a fire sale on one of the game's more productive relievers.

We should hope it's the Tigers who come calling, as that will result in an extra first-round pick for the Astros. The Diamondbacks 1st-Rounder is protected, which would give us their 2nd-round pick.

How does #19 sound?

Because that's the pick the Tigers have in the 2010 draft. And it makes sense for the Tigers to sign Jose Valverde, according to Smilin' Ken Rosenthal.

In theory, Valverde could increase his possibilities by considering offers to set up – the Cubs, for example, could sign him as protection for Carlos Marmol.

Valverde, however, probably will not want to settle for a reduced role. He led the National League in saves in 2007 and ’08, and converted all 17 of his chances with a 1.64 ERA after the All-Star break last season. His best outcome would be to close for one year, then re-enter the market.

The Tigers would forfeit a first-round pick for signing him – a significant obstacle. A team that finished with one of the 15 worst overall records last season would lose, at worst, a second rounder.

Prediction: Tigers

Valverde back to Arizona?

The Associated Press is reporting that Valverde "appears" to be heading back to Arizona.

This means that, because the Diamondbacks were 70-92 and finished in the bottom half of the overall standings, their 1st Round draft pick is protected - so should Valverde sign with the Diamon'backs, the Astros would receive Arizona's 2nd Round pick.

Valverde could end up in Arizona

Sure, the Diamondbacks have signed Bob Howry, but Nick Piecoro tells us that they're also still keeping tabs on Jose Valverde (which shouldn't be that hard of a task):

The club had been monitoring closer Jose Valverde's availability, and though Howry's signing makes a Valverde reunion somewhat less likely, team sources say they will continue to track Valverde and theoretically could stretch their budget for him if the cost makes sense.

The Diamondbacks would have to give up a second-round draft pick to sign him, but the savings on signing the pick (about $750,000) could help off-set the cost of Valverde.

Do you think Valverde got his agent a Christmas present, other than a flaming bag of crap?