For a while
now #on #line I’ve been seeing Unnamed People saying how much easier life would
be if only Billy Wagner was anchoring the bullpen and not Ken Giles. But folks
I’m here to tell you that Ken Giles is basically Billy Wagner.
Step right
inside this Waybach. Wagner was in the Astros’ bullpen from 1996 (I’m not
counting his one appearance where he threw 0.1IP in 1995) until the end of the
2003 season. With the Astros Wagner saved 225 games, threw 504.1IP with a 2.53
ERA/1.04 WHIP. He struck out 12.4 batters per game over those eight seasons,
with a 2.81 FIP, 5.9 hits/9, and a 3.63 K:BB ratio. He was very good.
Wagner also
threw hard. FanGraphs’ pitch type data dates back to the beginning of the 2002
season, but in his final season in Houston – 2003 – Wagner averaged 97.9mph on
his fastball, which he threw about 79% of the time. He’d mix in an 88mph slider
with the other 20% and apparently threw a couple of curves and changeups.
This is
where Ken Giles comes in. While obviously Giles has a ways to go in terms of
longevity, his 2017 season compares favorably to Wagner: 2.54 ERA / 0.99 WHIP
that is actually underperforming his 2.45 FIP. Giles has struck out 12.1 batters/9,
a 4.00 K:BB ratio, and has allowed 5.9 hits/9 this season – precisely the same
as Wagner’s eight seasons in Houston. Pitch-wise,
Giles has thrown his 97.2mph (average) fastball 56.6% of the time to go with an
86.4mph slider, which he throws the other 43.4% of the time.
Where the
disconnect comes in, I think, is that fans are waiting for Giles to turn back
into April 2016 Giles, not appreciating him for what he’s done. When he blew
the save over the weekend in Oakland, those were the 3rd and 4th
runs he had allowed since the All-Star Break. Giles seems to dance in and out
of trouble, but as long as he’s dancing out of it, it’s fine.
Where Wagner
gets Giles is in two places:
*Wagner’s ERA+ is 171. Giles’ is 157.
So Wagner was a better reliever relative to the league than Giles has been this
season.
*Wagner’s got longevity. I guess I
forgot – or wasn’t paying attention – to the part where Wagner posted a 2.03
ERA / 0.95 WHIP between 2004-2010 for the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, and Braves
with a 212 ERA+, 11.3 K/9, and a 4.61 K:BB ratio. So, yeah, Wagner should be in
the conversation for the Hall of Fame. From 1969-2010 (his last year) Wagner
posted the 6th-highest career fWAR among qualified relievers. His
24.1 fWAR is better than HOFers Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter.
Wagner’s
11.92 K/9 is 4th among relievers in the same time span (behind
Carlos Marmol, Rob Dibble, and…yes, Brad Lidge.) His 2.31 career ERA is tied
for 9th among relievers. Saves are whatever you want them to be, but
Wagner is one of five relievers with 400+ saves. Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith
are HOFers. He’s 56 saves behind Lee Smith and just two behind John Franco, who
probably deserves more consideration than he actually gets.
Billy Wagner was freaking good, y’all. And Ken Giles – again – needs
to have this season seven more times in a row to be part of a larger
conversation, but Ken Giles has been favorably dominant this year, even if your
friends try to tell you otherwise.
