It is October 29, 2019. Game 6 is tonight, two years to the day after Game 5. The roof will be closed. Clay Walker - the only living singer in the Houston area not currently consumed by The Sickness - will sing the National Anthem. Hakeem Olajuwon will throw out the ceremonial first pitch to Clyde Drexler. 25 years ago the Rockets were down 0-2 to the Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals after losing both games at home and won the series and the title. It took the Rockets seven games. My major organs can't take seven games in the World Series again. But I feel good, and here's why:
Justin Verlander:
-2006 AL Rookie of the Year
-2007 AL League-Leader in Win% (18-6, .750)
-2011 Pitching Triple-Crown Winner, AL MVP, AL Cy Young
-Seven (soon-to-be Eight) Top 5 Cy Young voting
-8-time All-Star, two-time All-Star Game SP
-5-time strikeout leader
-4-time WHIP leader
-3 No-Hitters
-2017 Trade Deadline Winner, ALCS MVP, World Series Champion
-All-time postseason strikeout leader
Justin Verlander is 0-5 in seven World Series starts. This is literally the only thing he's missing: a World Series win. He checks that box in Game 6. A.J. Hinch:
This would be a nice bullet on his resume into Cooperstown.
*FanGraphs has it 84.9-15.1 Astros.
ZiPS says it's 56.1% Astros tonight.
FiveThirtyEight has it 59-41 Astros in Game 6.
Bovada has the Astros at -177 tonight.
*The 2019 Astros' season started on March 28, 2019. They're 117-61 (.657) since. One more win. 118-62 is not ideal, but acceptable. 117-63 is completely unacceptable. But let's remember that the Houston Astros won 117 games from April 1, 2011 - April 23, 2013. Their record in that span: 117-227 (.340)
*Hunter Atkins: How the Astros got their swagger back.
*Joe Smith:
[Game 6 will be] the hardest 27 outs we've gotten all season.
*ESPN: Six key questions heading into Game 6.
*Jeff Passan: How one blown strike call in Game 5 illustrates the need for Robot Umps. Still waiting on the "How One Blown Catcher's Interference Call In Game 1 Illustrates the Need for Robot Umps" thinkpiece.
*SI's Emma Baccellieri: How the Nationals can win out.
*Lance McCullers hit 90 on the gun.
*You need this shirt.
*The Athletic's Rustin Dodd: The pain and anguish of Max Scherzer. Jake Kaplan, on the potential leaving legacy of Gerrit Cole. McHugh, on Cole:
It's kind of unprecedented, what he's done. We thought last year, watching him, that he had made incredible strides, and that he had become the pitcher that everybody thought he could be. And then this year he's done that and more. He's refined his stuff even further. His delivery has been as consistent as I've ever seen a pitcher have a delivery over the course of like a full, at this point, almost 40 starts this year.
Ken Rosenthal: Did Gerrit Cole just set himself up for a $300m contract? It's crazy to think that Cole could make $1m per start. It's crazier to think the Astros might not pay him because of one year over the luxury tax.
Tom Verducci: How Gerrit Cole crafted a masterpiece without his best stuff.
*Former Astros Great Seth Beer was ranked by Baseball America as the hottest prospect to close out the Arizona Fall League. Zack Greinke helped win Game 3 and more than made up for the collapse of Wade Miley.
*SI ranked the best World Series games of the decade. 2017 Game 2 was 4th, Game 5 was 3rd. This list is already invalid. I can, off the top of my head, think of the top seven World Series games off the top of my head, with the possibility of an 8th on Tuesday. 2011 Game 6 ranked 1st, so that's some comfort for us Astros fans.
*Former Astros Great Nick Tropeano was outrighted off the Angels' 40-Man Roster, after electing free agency over a minor-league assignment. Astros won the Hank Conger trade.
*The bridesmaid Dodgers are going to try to trade for Cleveland's Francisco Lindor.
*Former Astros Great Carlos Beltran is in the mix for the Mets' job.
*President Harry S. Truman was booed at a Nationals game in 1951, 22 years after President Herbert Hoover was booed by fans yelling "We want beer!" None of this is false.
*In the Centenary Month of Leeds United, My Dude Phil Hay has a tragic telling of what it's like to play for, and be a fan of, LUFC.
*A Musical Selection:
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Hank Conger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hank Conger. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Friday, December 4, 2015
Friday Morning Hot Links
*Joel Sherman writes that the fates of players like Chris Carter are victims of the Steroid Era.
*Is that Max Stassi's music!?
*Here's Ben Lindbergh asking not why the Astros traded Hank Conger, but why the Rays traded for him.
*You want Jeff Samardzija? He's in the $90-100m price range.
*The Detroit News' Lynn Henning wants to vote for eleven players for the HOF (yes, Jeff Bagwell included). But the HOF will only let him vote for ten players. So Lynn Henning is not going to vote.
*The Pirates' GM said that his first mistake was bringing Pedro Alvarez to the Majors before he was ready.
*Is that Max Stassi's music!?
*Here's Ben Lindbergh asking not why the Astros traded Hank Conger, but why the Rays traded for him.
*You want Jeff Samardzija? He's in the $90-100m price range.
*The Detroit News' Lynn Henning wants to vote for eleven players for the HOF (yes, Jeff Bagwell included). But the HOF will only let him vote for ten players. So Lynn Henning is not going to vote.
*The Pirates' GM said that his first mistake was bringing Pedro Alvarez to the Majors before he was ready.
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Why trade Hank Conger?
But 2015 happened, and Conger was alright at the plate. He hit .229/.311/.448, and it was the power that gave him his value. His 107 wRC+ was 11th among the 45 catchers with at least 200 plate appearances in 2015. He was projected to make around $1.8m in 2016. He was the robot-dancing life of the dadgum party. Why trade him?
Could it be that the Astros decided to simply allocate the $1.8m they were projected to have spent on Conger in 2016 elsewhere? In the alternate universe that is baseball economics, $1.8m is not a lot of money. Luhnow already said as late as last week that the Astros could afford all of their arbitration-eligible players, if they wanted to. The Astros saved the $1.8m on Conger's 2016 salary plus whatever amount of cash comes back from Tampa Bay to complete the deal. How much is clubhouse chemistry worth?
And I think that's why it hurts. I think we can all agree that the Astros aren't just being cheap. They're running up tabs on service time and pre-arb players that are going to have to be paid in the not-too-distant future. But for years the Astros had absolutely zero personality. None. They were a collection of mercenaries, hired to keep the general manager in his position, faceless agents of baseball not necessarily meant to delight us, but to win just often enough to make it watchable.
Conger's MVP moment came *after* the Astros clinched the Wild Card on the last day of the season - two words, half of them profane, hilarious in timing and content. The robot dancing every time someone else hit a home run, the mythical Clubhouse Presence that perhaps fans value too highly. Well, as we have noted ad nauseum, the Astros value things differently than we do. Maybe it'll work out, but today I'm just sad over a backup catcher.
Thursday Morning Hot Links
*The Masked Marvel has a good write-up on the departures of Carter and Conger. Carter's non-tendering was not surprising. For some reason I'm absolutely shocked by Conger's trade to Tampa Bay for cash. And isn't sentimentality something? In October's Exit Music post for Conger, I thought "good clubhouse guy who has some pop...would you want to mess with that?" And the Astros said, "Sure." Having never been in there, it would be impossible for me to speculate what impact his departure will have on the Astros' clubhouse. I suspect that there are enough Good Guys to handle it. But it doesn't change the fact that I have some sad.
*Carter had an idea that it would happen, but Conger is sad:
Everyone gets along. We had a great time. Coaching staff's awesome, I think that's why I was kind of a little shocked, a little sad to see myself get traded.
Just to recap: the Astros traded Jed Lowrie and Fernando Martinez for Carter, presumptive C2 Max Stassi, and Brad Peacock. The Astros traded Nick Tropeano and backup catcher Carlos Perez for Conger. Now Conger has been traded for cash and Carter was non-tendered.
*Your 40-Man roster is at 37.
*But hey: Keuchel, Castro, Gattis, Fields, Valbuena, and Marwin all got contracts.
*Reid Ryan is perfectly fine with the expectations that are placed on the club
Expectations are what we want. It's what our fans want, what our owner wants and nobody wants to not be contending year in and year out. We've been around this game long enough to know sometimes you've got to get lucky.
*The Astros hired their new athletic trainer from the Pirates, and boy, does he look excited.
*Marketplace reports that, yes, baseball player salaries have risen 60% in the last 12 years. But team revenues are up 120%.
*Carter had an idea that it would happen, but Conger is sad:
Everyone gets along. We had a great time. Coaching staff's awesome, I think that's why I was kind of a little shocked, a little sad to see myself get traded.
Just to recap: the Astros traded Jed Lowrie and Fernando Martinez for Carter, presumptive C2 Max Stassi, and Brad Peacock. The Astros traded Nick Tropeano and backup catcher Carlos Perez for Conger. Now Conger has been traded for cash and Carter was non-tendered.
*Your 40-Man roster is at 37.
*But hey: Keuchel, Castro, Gattis, Fields, Valbuena, and Marwin all got contracts.
*Reid Ryan is perfectly fine with the expectations that are placed on the club
Expectations are what we want. It's what our fans want, what our owner wants and nobody wants to not be contending year in and year out. We've been around this game long enough to know sometimes you've got to get lucky.
*The Astros hired their new athletic trainer from the Pirates, and boy, does he look excited.
*Marketplace reports that, yes, baseball player salaries have risen 60% in the last 12 years. But team revenues are up 120%.
Carter and Conger are the Next Casualties
So perhaps the Astros don't like me writing about them. Actually, I would be delighted if the Astros even knew I wrote about them, much less had an opinion as to whether said writing was likeable or not. I am getting this feeling because of their continued Stalin-like purge of my favourite Astros players. Today, Chris Carter and Hank Conger departed for other baseball destinations.
Most recently, Hank Conger was traded to the Rays, who have a history of liking reasonable offensive catchers. Coming back from Tampa in that trade was a young, unheralded prospect, Charlie Ash. Clearly, the Astros were unable to convince Tampa to take Carter and Conger in exchange for Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee - and I am sure that trade was discussed for, like, two milliseconds - so the Astros settled for freeing up a 40-man slot and a small amount of cash in exchange for Hammerin' Hank and his robot-like dancing.
Not totally sure what this means for the Astros. The logical move would be to assume that Max Stassi will be promoted in Hammerin' Hank's place. Seems like the most likely possibility, and at least that would create a proper lefty-righty platoon. Would you rule out Evan Gattis donning the Tools of Ignorance at some stage?? I probably would - a year off catching seems like a tough hurdle to overcome, and Gattis strikes me as a continued DH candidate, and little else. Tyler White behind the plate?? Perhaps, but again, highly unlikely - if he makes the team, it is as a corner infielder and DH I would think. Alfredo Gonzalez having a realistic chance of making the team out of Spring Training?? Perhaps this is the most likely of the unlikely scenarios. Re-acquire Carlos Corporan?? Who knows... but I am sure the Astros have some definitive idea of what they want to achieve here. I don't think Conger was an indispensable part of the World Series Astros.
(as an aside, it may pay to keep tabs on the Tyler Flowers market, but that is a post for another day)
Chris Carter is a different case. He was simply non-tendered a contract, which is something that Evan Drillich anticipated yesterday. Carter was predicted to have been paid a reasonable amount on his second trip through the arbitration process - about 5.5 million or so - so he having him around would have involved a significant financial commitment for the whole year. Carter is traditionally a slow starter, so giving him time to sort his stuff out prior to the estimated Super-Two deadline would probably not have worked this year, and you would still be on the hook for the whole 5.5-or-so million in the event that you wanted to cut him loose at that stage. That amount should involve a whole-season guarantee of a reasonable level of play from the perspective of the Astros.
The arbitration award process also seems to value traditional statistics somewhat, so Carter's home-run totals would have been responsible for most of any award for the predicated amount. This also means that his sometimes Mendoza-like average and his league-average (or slightly-below) OBP wouldn't have detracted from that award, and his issues around defence and baserunning certainly wouldn't have been considered. The Astros must have simply decided that the cost was too great, and the unused corner-infield resources elsewhere in the organisation were compelling enough to let him go for naught.
That said, Mark Trumbo (and a fellow Mariner) were just traded for peanuts (well, a lefty backup catcher who was also a non-tender candidate) to the Orioles. It seems that the market for RH one-dimensional sluggers is somewhat limited, and it is particularly limited when the other 29 teams sniff the possibility of a non-tender. So Carter's trade market was likely to be as flat as the Bonneville Salt Flats, but I am sure that Astros explored multiple options with many other clubs.
I liked both Carter and Conger, and am, again, sorry to see the both of them go. I have been writing statements like that a lot recently. I have always rooted for the underdog to some extent - which is why I have kept watching the Astros since, like, 2006 - and Carter and Conger both represented enthusiastic attempts by the Astros to build a legitimate major-league roster. At the stages of the rebuild that both were acquired, both were guys that were perhaps undervalued by their previous teams, and both had a chance to break out with improved playing time. So both Conger and Carter represented what the Astros were all about - at least to me - and if both did well, the Astros would be going places (in my mind).
During my trip to MMP earlier this year, I was sitting in a field-level seat in RF, talking to Curtis, the clubhouse attendant and RF ball-boy for the night. Curtis was probably horribly bored having to talk to a jet-lagged and half-drunk foreigner. Probably desperate to make conversation, he asked me who my favourite Astro was. My brain wasn't working all that well thanks to the 11-hour flight that I had just stepped off, and while I love Altuve and Springer, I kind of think that everyone loves them, and my schtick is biased toward rooting for the plucky underdog. Anyhow, I thought about it for, like, a minute, and murmured in reply that Chris Carter was probably my favourite current Astro. This was most likely on the basis that he nearly never shows frustration, and never-ever shows up the opposition. Perhaps a subtle bat-flip is all you will see from Chris Carter - something I also liked about Matt Dominguez - and you rarely see him look concerned as he heads back to the dugout after a strikeout. He strikes me as a very gentle, soft-spoken guy, and Curtis confirmed that this was the case when the media wasn't around.
Regardless, thinking that was a lame effort (and it was), I also added that Villar and Lowrie weren't too bad either in my books. Getting the picture?? Yikes, I am glad I didn't say anything about Keuchel or Handsome Jake (although he is being 'listened on' as well) else they would have been added to the Ex-Stros Roll of Honour. It seems I have the kiss of death when it comes to purging talent. Or perhaps I need to stop rooting for waiver-bait.
But this is the stage of the rebuild the Astros are at. No longer is 1.5-2.0 WAR good enough for fielding positions. This is the Correa and Altuve 5-WAR era, and you better play, or else you will become someone else's roster-filler. The Astros are all about ceiling in all 9 positions now, and they can't afford a bad half-year from someone like Chris Carter, who seems to heat up with the weather (or at least has done for the last couple of years). Carter didn't have the luxury to working into the season for the first couple of months, and the Astros weren't prepared to cut him loose and still owe him three-million at the Super-Two deadline. The two sides were never going to successfully get together over this one. But I am still a little sad about Carter's departure - even if most Astros fans aren't.
For now, I will leave you with my favourite Carter post of all time. As the Constable would say... good night, sweet prince.
Most recently, Hank Conger was traded to the Rays, who have a history of liking reasonable offensive catchers. Coming back from Tampa in that trade was a young, unheralded prospect, Charlie Ash. Clearly, the Astros were unable to convince Tampa to take Carter and Conger in exchange for Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee - and I am sure that trade was discussed for, like, two milliseconds - so the Astros settled for freeing up a 40-man slot and a small amount of cash in exchange for Hammerin' Hank and his robot-like dancing.
Not totally sure what this means for the Astros. The logical move would be to assume that Max Stassi will be promoted in Hammerin' Hank's place. Seems like the most likely possibility, and at least that would create a proper lefty-righty platoon. Would you rule out Evan Gattis donning the Tools of Ignorance at some stage?? I probably would - a year off catching seems like a tough hurdle to overcome, and Gattis strikes me as a continued DH candidate, and little else. Tyler White behind the plate?? Perhaps, but again, highly unlikely - if he makes the team, it is as a corner infielder and DH I would think. Alfredo Gonzalez having a realistic chance of making the team out of Spring Training?? Perhaps this is the most likely of the unlikely scenarios. Re-acquire Carlos Corporan?? Who knows... but I am sure the Astros have some definitive idea of what they want to achieve here. I don't think Conger was an indispensable part of the World Series Astros.
(as an aside, it may pay to keep tabs on the Tyler Flowers market, but that is a post for another day)
Chris Carter is a different case. He was simply non-tendered a contract, which is something that Evan Drillich anticipated yesterday. Carter was predicted to have been paid a reasonable amount on his second trip through the arbitration process - about 5.5 million or so - so he having him around would have involved a significant financial commitment for the whole year. Carter is traditionally a slow starter, so giving him time to sort his stuff out prior to the estimated Super-Two deadline would probably not have worked this year, and you would still be on the hook for the whole 5.5-or-so million in the event that you wanted to cut him loose at that stage. That amount should involve a whole-season guarantee of a reasonable level of play from the perspective of the Astros.
The arbitration award process also seems to value traditional statistics somewhat, so Carter's home-run totals would have been responsible for most of any award for the predicated amount. This also means that his sometimes Mendoza-like average and his league-average (or slightly-below) OBP wouldn't have detracted from that award, and his issues around defence and baserunning certainly wouldn't have been considered. The Astros must have simply decided that the cost was too great, and the unused corner-infield resources elsewhere in the organisation were compelling enough to let him go for naught.
That said, Mark Trumbo (and a fellow Mariner) were just traded for peanuts (well, a lefty backup catcher who was also a non-tender candidate) to the Orioles. It seems that the market for RH one-dimensional sluggers is somewhat limited, and it is particularly limited when the other 29 teams sniff the possibility of a non-tender. So Carter's trade market was likely to be as flat as the Bonneville Salt Flats, but I am sure that Astros explored multiple options with many other clubs.
I liked both Carter and Conger, and am, again, sorry to see the both of them go. I have been writing statements like that a lot recently. I have always rooted for the underdog to some extent - which is why I have kept watching the Astros since, like, 2006 - and Carter and Conger both represented enthusiastic attempts by the Astros to build a legitimate major-league roster. At the stages of the rebuild that both were acquired, both were guys that were perhaps undervalued by their previous teams, and both had a chance to break out with improved playing time. So both Conger and Carter represented what the Astros were all about - at least to me - and if both did well, the Astros would be going places (in my mind).
During my trip to MMP earlier this year, I was sitting in a field-level seat in RF, talking to Curtis, the clubhouse attendant and RF ball-boy for the night. Curtis was probably horribly bored having to talk to a jet-lagged and half-drunk foreigner. Probably desperate to make conversation, he asked me who my favourite Astro was. My brain wasn't working all that well thanks to the 11-hour flight that I had just stepped off, and while I love Altuve and Springer, I kind of think that everyone loves them, and my schtick is biased toward rooting for the plucky underdog. Anyhow, I thought about it for, like, a minute, and murmured in reply that Chris Carter was probably my favourite current Astro. This was most likely on the basis that he nearly never shows frustration, and never-ever shows up the opposition. Perhaps a subtle bat-flip is all you will see from Chris Carter - something I also liked about Matt Dominguez - and you rarely see him look concerned as he heads back to the dugout after a strikeout. He strikes me as a very gentle, soft-spoken guy, and Curtis confirmed that this was the case when the media wasn't around.
Regardless, thinking that was a lame effort (and it was), I also added that Villar and Lowrie weren't too bad either in my books. Getting the picture?? Yikes, I am glad I didn't say anything about Keuchel or Handsome Jake (although he is being 'listened on' as well) else they would have been added to the Ex-Stros Roll of Honour. It seems I have the kiss of death when it comes to purging talent. Or perhaps I need to stop rooting for waiver-bait.
But this is the stage of the rebuild the Astros are at. No longer is 1.5-2.0 WAR good enough for fielding positions. This is the Correa and Altuve 5-WAR era, and you better play, or else you will become someone else's roster-filler. The Astros are all about ceiling in all 9 positions now, and they can't afford a bad half-year from someone like Chris Carter, who seems to heat up with the weather (or at least has done for the last couple of years). Carter didn't have the luxury to working into the season for the first couple of months, and the Astros weren't prepared to cut him loose and still owe him three-million at the Super-Two deadline. The two sides were never going to successfully get together over this one. But I am still a little sad about Carter's departure - even if most Astros fans aren't.
For now, I will leave you with my favourite Carter post of all time. As the Constable would say... good night, sweet prince.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Thursday Morning Hot Links
*Dallas Keuchel won the local BBWAA chapter's award for Pitcher of the Year and MVP. Correa was obviously Rookie of the Year; Hank Conger won the Darryl Kile Good Guy Award; Paul Goldschmidt won the Houston-area player of the year; Nolan Ryan won the award for long and meritorious service.
*Jose de Jesus Ortiz wrote about why he voted for Keuchel for Pitcher of the Year as well as team MVP.
*Astros hitting coach Dave Hudgens is pulling for the Mets.
*Social Media Correspondent Carlos Correa is killing it at the World Series.
*Joel Sherman lists the Red Sox, Astros, and Cubs as possible destinations for soon-to-be-free agent Alex Gordon.
*A.J. Hinch, on the non-possibility of him becoming Dodgers manager:
J.D. Davis (23 ABs): .261/.346/.522, 7K:3BB
A.J. Reed (29 ABs): .241/.361/.414, 5K:6BB
Derek Fisher (22 ABs): .182/.379/.227, 11K:7BB
C.J. Moon (10 ABs): .100/.231/.100, 1K:2BB
Brian Holmes: 8IP, 2H/1R (0ER), 4K:6BB
Albert Minnis: 4.2IP, 5H/1ER, 5K:0BB
Chris Cotton: 3.2IP, 3H/1ER, 4K:0BB
Keegan Yuhl: 2.2IP, 2H/3ER, 0K:2BB
*Will Leitch: Don't overthink the Royals.
*This guy is Mad Online about Hacksaw Jeff Banister finishing third in the Sporting News' Manager of the Year poll.
*Hardball Times: The Physics of Which Way The Wind Blows
*Jose de Jesus Ortiz wrote about why he voted for Keuchel for Pitcher of the Year as well as team MVP.
*Astros hitting coach Dave Hudgens is pulling for the Mets.
*Social Media Correspondent Carlos Correa is killing it at the World Series.
*Joel Sherman lists the Red Sox, Astros, and Cubs as possible destinations for soon-to-be-free agent Alex Gordon.
*A.J. Hinch, on the non-possibility of him becoming Dodgers manager:
AJ Hinch: "I am not a candidate for the Dodgers job, I am an Astro, and I am completely content in being here, it's not going to be me"
— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) October 28, 2015
*Arizona Fall League stats check:J.D. Davis (23 ABs): .261/.346/.522, 7K:3BB
A.J. Reed (29 ABs): .241/.361/.414, 5K:6BB
Derek Fisher (22 ABs): .182/.379/.227, 11K:7BB
C.J. Moon (10 ABs): .100/.231/.100, 1K:2BB
Brian Holmes: 8IP, 2H/1R (0ER), 4K:6BB
Albert Minnis: 4.2IP, 5H/1ER, 5K:0BB
Chris Cotton: 3.2IP, 3H/1ER, 4K:0BB
Keegan Yuhl: 2.2IP, 2H/3ER, 0K:2BB
*Will Leitch: Don't overthink the Royals.
*This guy is Mad Online about Hacksaw Jeff Banister finishing third in the Sporting News' Manager of the Year poll.
*Hardball Times: The Physics of Which Way The Wind Blows
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Exit Music (For A Player): Hank Conger
Hey, the wounds are still fresh, so it seems like a fine time to do some evaluating. This is the Exit Music (For A Player) series. Check out other Exit Music (For A Player) posts here.
Acquired: Acquired via trade November 5, 2014 from Anaheim for Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano
Age: 27. Conger will be 28 at the end of January.
Contract Status: Two years of arbitration remaining. Conger will not be a free agent until 2018.
Career:
This is an interesting one. Conger was the Angels' 1st Round pick (25th overall) in the 2006 draft and made his Major League debut in 2010, when he played in 13 games, hitting .172/.294/.276. He played in 59 games in 2011 backing up Jeff Mathis who somehow played 93 games hitting .174/.225/.259 for an OPS+ of 38, comparable to the stats a giant snapping turtle would generate at the plate, were he to grow opposable thumbs. Conger got 197 plate appearances in 2011 and, while he wasn't exactly Babe Ruth, his .209/.282/.356 must have seemed like Babe Ruth.
Jerry DiPoto was hired by the Angels in the 2011 offseason, and he went out and got Chris Iannetta behind the plate, limiting Conger to seven games for the Angels in 2012. For Triple-A Salt Lake, though, Conger hit .295/.347/.473 as a 24-year old in 2012, showing some promise with the bat. He has been in the Majors ever since.
Conger set a career-high in games played in 2013 with 92, hitting .249/.310/.403 and in 80 games for the 2014 Angels he hit .221/.293/.325.
Which makes it a curious decision for the Astros to trade both Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano to the Angels for Conger. Perez is a 24-year old catcher who had put up a .259/.323/.385 line in 75 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City. He struck out 54 times in 340 plate appearances. Perez also had a strong arm, throwing out 43 of 90 base runners (48% CS) in 2013, including 35 of 75 for OKC. In 2014, he took a step back from that number, throwing out 22 of 68 baserunners, but still. Essentially the Astros traded a backup catcher with no major league experience and a young starting pitcher to the Angels for a backup catcher with major league experience.
2015:
Conger was an average player, which is pretty much all you can expect from your backup catcher. FanGraphs gave him slightly-below average marks in baselining, offense, and defense, but still a 0.5 WAR. Were FanGraphs to include dugout and clubhouse celebrations, Conger would have posted an 8.0+ WAR. But he is what he is - a backup catcher.
And Conger did have moments of sparkle. He posted a .448 SLG for a reason. His first homer as an Astro was a two-run shot off the bench in the 12th that put the Astros up 6-4 at Arlington, proving to be the game-winning homer. Conger hit a grand slam against the Diamondbacks in August, going 3x4 with 2HR and 5RBI. He had another 5RBI game September 4 against the Twins. And in September, when the Astros were just looking for anything they could get, he did hit .283/.306/.478.
Then there's the defense: Conger threw out one of 42 baserunners in 2015. One. Who was that unlucky baserunner? Former Astro/current White Sock(x) J.B. Shuck, whom Conger threw out on May 29 trying to steal 2nd base to end the the 10th inning in a 3-3 game.
Franchise Marks:
*Conger's 5th-closest similarity score, according to Baseball-Reference? A.J. Hinch.
Challengers:
Conger has two years of arbitration left - he's a serviceable backup catcher with a little bit of pop. I don't know how many challengers there are for the backup catcher spot. Because who else can do this:
Reads:
Acquired: Acquired via trade November 5, 2014 from Anaheim for Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano
Age: 27. Conger will be 28 at the end of January.
Contract Status: Two years of arbitration remaining. Conger will not be a free agent until 2018.
Career:
This is an interesting one. Conger was the Angels' 1st Round pick (25th overall) in the 2006 draft and made his Major League debut in 2010, when he played in 13 games, hitting .172/.294/.276. He played in 59 games in 2011 backing up Jeff Mathis who somehow played 93 games hitting .174/.225/.259 for an OPS+ of 38, comparable to the stats a giant snapping turtle would generate at the plate, were he to grow opposable thumbs. Conger got 197 plate appearances in 2011 and, while he wasn't exactly Babe Ruth, his .209/.282/.356 must have seemed like Babe Ruth.
Jerry DiPoto was hired by the Angels in the 2011 offseason, and he went out and got Chris Iannetta behind the plate, limiting Conger to seven games for the Angels in 2012. For Triple-A Salt Lake, though, Conger hit .295/.347/.473 as a 24-year old in 2012, showing some promise with the bat. He has been in the Majors ever since.
Conger set a career-high in games played in 2013 with 92, hitting .249/.310/.403 and in 80 games for the 2014 Angels he hit .221/.293/.325.
Which makes it a curious decision for the Astros to trade both Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano to the Angels for Conger. Perez is a 24-year old catcher who had put up a .259/.323/.385 line in 75 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City. He struck out 54 times in 340 plate appearances. Perez also had a strong arm, throwing out 43 of 90 base runners (48% CS) in 2013, including 35 of 75 for OKC. In 2014, he took a step back from that number, throwing out 22 of 68 baserunners, but still. Essentially the Astros traded a backup catcher with no major league experience and a young starting pitcher to the Angels for a backup catcher with major league experience.
2015:
Conger was an average player, which is pretty much all you can expect from your backup catcher. FanGraphs gave him slightly-below average marks in baselining, offense, and defense, but still a 0.5 WAR. Were FanGraphs to include dugout and clubhouse celebrations, Conger would have posted an 8.0+ WAR. But he is what he is - a backup catcher.
And Conger did have moments of sparkle. He posted a .448 SLG for a reason. His first homer as an Astro was a two-run shot off the bench in the 12th that put the Astros up 6-4 at Arlington, proving to be the game-winning homer. Conger hit a grand slam against the Diamondbacks in August, going 3x4 with 2HR and 5RBI. He had another 5RBI game September 4 against the Twins. And in September, when the Astros were just looking for anything they could get, he did hit .283/.306/.478.
Then there's the defense: Conger threw out one of 42 baserunners in 2015. One. Who was that unlucky baserunner? Former Astro/current White Sock(x) J.B. Shuck, whom Conger threw out on May 29 trying to steal 2nd base to end the the 10th inning in a 3-3 game.
Franchise Marks:
*Conger's 5th-closest similarity score, according to Baseball-Reference? A.J. Hinch.
Challengers:
Conger has two years of arbitration left - he's a serviceable backup catcher with a little bit of pop. I don't know how many challengers there are for the backup catcher spot. Because who else can do this:
Reads:
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Arbitration Projections Are Out
MLBTR has posted their arbitration projections. We'll come back to this in the off-season, but at least it provides something to think about other than the overwhelming nausea we collectively feel over the Wild Card game.
Here's what MLBTR's figures project:
Keuchel: $6.4m
Valbuena: $5.8m
Carter: $5.6m
Castro: $4.6m
Gattis: $3.4m
Marwin: $1.9m
Conger: $1.8m
Fields: $800,000
Deduno: $700,000
Keuchel's a slam dunk. What say you on the others?
Here's what MLBTR's figures project:
Keuchel: $6.4m
Valbuena: $5.8m
Carter: $5.6m
Castro: $4.6m
Gattis: $3.4m
Marwin: $1.9m
Conger: $1.8m
Fields: $800,000
Deduno: $700,000
Keuchel's a slam dunk. What say you on the others?
Monday, October 5, 2015
Your Playoff-Bound Houston Astros
Jeebus. Who would have thought? I mean, yeah, I'm processing all the negative feelings that come with having lost the division to South Oklahoma, but when Cole Hamels titted out and rejected a trade to the Astros to join the Northwest Louisiana Rangers, there was a turn in the season narrative. "Nobody believed in us!" said the team with the $170m payroll and three future Hall of Famers. "We - the Southwest Arkansas Ramgers came and took it." Bastards. I hope they all get pink eye from rubbing their crotches on each other's pillows and I wish nothing but a lifetime of rocking back and forth with a Windex bottle of toilet wine as they mutter "One Strike Away" for the rest of the miserable lives they lead, in traffic.
But this isn't about the Metroplexuals.
Your Houston Astros are postseason bound for the first time in ten years. Nobody is more excited than the likely-hungover Hank Conger:
*Some people apparently got offended at the fact that sometimes baseball players use potty language when they get excited and/or make the playoffs.
*Rasmus: "To put it into words is crazy. Poppin' bottles is easier."
*Luhnow: "Hopefully they'll be making a movie about this one day."
*This is one of those things that, if I was morally bankrupt and a Rangers fan, I would find entertaining. But really I just want to punch a sackful of kittens.
*ESPN gazed into the abyss and unlocked the mystery of the Astros' success this season: Pitching, Home Runs, and Defense. So by being good at pitching, hitting, and defense, it turns out the Astros were pretty good. That's nuts. Why didn't they try that before?
*Oliver Perez: We're going to play one game and we're going to play like it's Game 7 of the World Series.
New York Media
NYT: Innocence is a virtue for the young Astros
NJ.com: Do the Yankees think they can beat Dallas Keuchel?
Newsday: The Yankees have to solve Dallas Keuchel
NY Daily News: Yankees could have a problem with Dallas Keuchel
But this isn't about the Metroplexuals.
The @Astros would be the first team ever to say "nobody believed in us!" and have it be accurate.
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) October 5, 2015
Keith Law, on Olney's podcast yesterday: "[The Astros'] start is not real, and I would not take it seriously."
— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) May 1, 2015
Your Houston Astros are postseason bound for the first time in ten years. Nobody is more excited than the likely-hungover Hank Conger:
*Some people apparently got offended at the fact that sometimes baseball players use potty language when they get excited and/or make the playoffs.
*Rasmus: "To put it into words is crazy. Poppin' bottles is easier."
*Luhnow: "Hopefully they'll be making a movie about this one day."
*This is one of those things that, if I was morally bankrupt and a Rangers fan, I would find entertaining. But really I just want to punch a sackful of kittens.
*ESPN gazed into the abyss and unlocked the mystery of the Astros' success this season: Pitching, Home Runs, and Defense. So by being good at pitching, hitting, and defense, it turns out the Astros were pretty good. That's nuts. Why didn't they try that before?
*Oliver Perez: We're going to play one game and we're going to play like it's Game 7 of the World Series.
New York Media
NYT: Innocence is a virtue for the young Astros
NJ.com: Do the Yankees think they can beat Dallas Keuchel?
Newsday: The Yankees have to solve Dallas Keuchel
NY Daily News: Yankees could have a problem with Dallas Keuchel
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Wednesday Morning Hot Links
AL West Recap
Well the Astros beat the Angels, of which you can read about in the Masked Marvel's Game Recap here. The Yankees beat the Rays by a score of...wait that can't be right...JEEBUS...yes, 21-5. The Yankees scored 21 unanswered runs after the Rangers put up a 5-spot in the 1st. The Diamondbacks beat the Mariners, and the A's beat the Dodgers. So once again the Angels and Astros are tied for the lead in the AL West. FanGraphs gives the Astros a 43.7% chance of winning the division, and an 84% chance of making the postseason.
Game Links
*C.J. Wilson: Any time the team scores five runs for me, I feel really good about my chances, but I just sort of dropped that one right in the toilet...I didn't have anything tonight. I could have lost to the (Triple-A affiliate) Salt Lake Bees, the way I was throwing the ball.
*Collin McHugh: That was probably the ugliest pitchers' win you'll see and one of the prettiest team wins you're going to be able to witness. Everything besides what I did today we did extraordinarily well. It was fun to watch and I was fortunate enough to be on the right side of it.
*Jeff Luhnow: I don't know how much more (the Angels series is worth) more than a normal game, but they're worth a lot. This is the team that we need to beat if we want to win this division. Every game here, our team's going to be very focused on winning these games.
*An MRI showed no structural damage in Mike Trout's wrist, and he could be back in the Angels' lineup tonight. This guy is straight panicked.
*Hank Conger has worked on his hitting mechanics: Just from the beginning of the season to literally now, the transition is just working with Zinter and Hudgens on plate discipline. Whether it is taking borderline pitches or not, it's really just seeing strikes is what has helped me out this year.
Trade Deadline Links
*Jim Crane: "Hopefully we might add another guy or two before the deadline on Friday."
*The Astros plan with the Phillies remains to "negotiate and worry about approval later."
*(Previous link) The Padres and Phillies both had scouts at the Astros and Rangers' Double-A games over the weekend.
*Ken Rosenthal has additional confirmation that the Astros are making a "strong push" for Cole Hamels, but how open Hamels is to waiving that no-trade clause is unknown.
*Sirius/XM's Mike Ferrin says that if Hamels "is serious about wanting to win over the life of his contract, then waiving a no-trade to Houston is a no brainer."
*The Rangers and Dodgers are "in a better position" to land Hamels.
*The Rangers are talking to the Padres about Andrew Cashner and/or Tyson Ross "as much as they are" the Phillies about Cole Hamels.
Other Links
*Billy Beane, who has traded away Scott Kazmir and Tyler Clippard in the last week, credited the Astros' rebuilding plan for his actions: (The Astros created) a dynamic farm system, and they're now starting to reap the rewards. If we're ever going to compete, we're going to have to take a somewhat similar approach and at least make sure we've got young players who are coming through the system who'll be here for a few years.
*Kaz Matsui joined Japan's 2000-hit club.
Non-Astros Link of the Day: As many of you know, Die Hard 3 is my favorite movie of all time. ("The One I Love" with Mark Duplass and Elizabeth Moss is a very close 2nd): Here's Uproxx on How Die Hard With a Vengeance caused the FBI to rethink Federal Reserve security.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Sunday Morning Hot Links
Oh Jeez. It's happening, the collapse is happening. In the two weeks since July 4, the Astros' odds of winning the division have fallen from 62.3% to 29.4% and their postseason odds have taken a nosedive from 80.5% to 55.4% (all via FanGraphs). We're all going to suffer and die. OR you could look at it like it's now a 70-ish game season and the Astros are 1.5 games back behind a streaking team that is 15-5 in their last 20 games. On to them Hot Links...
*Scroll down a post and you can read the Masked Marvel's very good recap of last night's dumb 7-6 loss. A.J. Hinch said:
We had a chance to win the series tonight and we didn't do it...We didn't use our outs well enough early in the game and we ran out of outs. If you wonder if games in July matter, tonight is proof positive.
Rangers manager Hacksaw Jeff Banister, likely holding an American flag and a 2x4:
Our guys are not going to be pushed around
Feldman, on Rougned Odor:
I don't really know that Odor guy much, but he's got some good veterans he can learn the game from over there...He doesn't need to act like that.
Conger:
Whatever was exchanged between me and (Odor) is between me and him, but at the same time I wasn't too pleased about him taking his time getting into the box.
*What with Carter's ankle injury (which doesn't seem to merit a DL stint), Luis Valbuena and Hank Conger took grounders at 1B before last night's game.
*The Astros and Padres have held preliminary talks regarding a trade for starting pitching, presumably for Andrew Cashner and/or Tyson Ross, according to sources of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but "there are no indications of anything imminent."
Cashner, a Conroe native, won't be a free agent until 2017. Ross won't be a free agent until 2018.
*Buster Olney tweeted that the Phillies are engaged with multiple teams on trading Hamels, and are pushing to get a Papelbon deal finished.
*Dayn Perry wrote about Carlos Correa's power.
Is Correa already the American League's top shortstop? After six weeks or so of Correa, yes, that question can be asked plausibly. Of a 20-year old.
*A.J. Reed hit his first Double-A homer last night.
*Here's a fantastic article on Astros 40th Round pick Steve Naemark.
*What the Heck Bobby, has a cool look at former Astros players in Independent Ball
*A week ahead of Craig Biggio's Induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame, we wrote about why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his plaque.
*Scroll down a post and you can read the Masked Marvel's very good recap of last night's dumb 7-6 loss. A.J. Hinch said:
We had a chance to win the series tonight and we didn't do it...We didn't use our outs well enough early in the game and we ran out of outs. If you wonder if games in July matter, tonight is proof positive.
Rangers manager Hacksaw Jeff Banister, likely holding an American flag and a 2x4:
Our guys are not going to be pushed around
Feldman, on Rougned Odor:
I don't really know that Odor guy much, but he's got some good veterans he can learn the game from over there...He doesn't need to act like that.
Conger:
Whatever was exchanged between me and (Odor) is between me and him, but at the same time I wasn't too pleased about him taking his time getting into the box.
*What with Carter's ankle injury (which doesn't seem to merit a DL stint), Luis Valbuena and Hank Conger took grounders at 1B before last night's game.
*The Astros and Padres have held preliminary talks regarding a trade for starting pitching, presumably for Andrew Cashner and/or Tyson Ross, according to sources of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but "there are no indications of anything imminent."
Cashner, a Conroe native, won't be a free agent until 2017. Ross won't be a free agent until 2018.
*Buster Olney tweeted that the Phillies are engaged with multiple teams on trading Hamels, and are pushing to get a Papelbon deal finished.
*Dayn Perry wrote about Carlos Correa's power.
Is Correa already the American League's top shortstop? After six weeks or so of Correa, yes, that question can be asked plausibly. Of a 20-year old.
*A.J. Reed hit his first Double-A homer last night.
*Here's a fantastic article on Astros 40th Round pick Steve Naemark.
*What the Heck Bobby, has a cool look at former Astros players in Independent Ball
*A week ahead of Craig Biggio's Induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame, we wrote about why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his plaque.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
State of the Astros, All-Star Break Edition: Part II
Tuesday we started Part I of a look at the Astros at the All-Star Break, examining the three eras of the 2015 Astros season so far, and the trouble at 1B/DH. Let's continue by looking at the rest of the offense.
We knew this was how the offense was going to go. Back when the Astros were 18-7, we made the comparison of the 2015 Astros to the 2014 Brewers, whose offense was built on unsustainable power. Even if that power *is* sustainable, there will be stretches where the power blinks. So let's zoom in on the offense and try to figure out what has happened through the first 91 games of the season.
Catcher:
Jason Castro (237 PAs): .212/.283/.363, 66K:20BB
Hank Conger (116 PAs): .232/.339/.434, 30K:16BB
Castro has come a long way since 2013 when he was the lone All-Star and didn't even get to play in the game, but it's not in a good way. In 2013 Castro broke out, hitting .276/.350/.485 with 18 home runs. That was a fun year. Since then, however, Castro has struggled. His stats stretching back to the beginning of the 2014 season show that he's hitting .219/.285/.365 with 21 homers in 677 plate appearances. This is...not great. In May 2015, he hit .250/.289/.444, which was nice, but he's hitting .185/.261/.309 since. Part of Castro's issues over the last season and a half come from him not using the entire field. In 2013, Castro pulled the ball 34% of the time, meaning that he either went back up the middle or to the opposite field in 66% of the balls he put in play. In 2015, that Pull% is a career-high 45%. He's trying to pull the ball, isn't hitting the ball as hard, and is impatient. Put it this way: in 491 PAs in 2013, Castro drew 50 walks. In 749 PAs in 2014-15, he's drawn 54 walks. Part of it could be that the 2013 Astros lineup wasn't even Petty Thieves' Row, much less Murderer's Row, but Castro has to improve. Where Castro has improved is his defense, throwing out 38% of the runners who try to steal on him, and it's his defense which is largely responsible for FanGraphs giving him a 1.0 WAR. Castro arbitration-eligible for the last time in 2016, but the Astros not locking him up following 2013 seems to be the right call.
Conger has been exactly what the Astros likely hoped for: a solid backup catcher, who maybe should be getting more playing time. Hell, he hit a game-winning homer in the 14th inning against the Rangers in his second game in an Astros jersey, so right there he is first in our hearts. Neither Conger (.577 OPS) nor Castro (.591 OPS) can hit lefty pitching, but Conger is hitting .311/.426/.578 in 54 PAs against righties. Conger can't throw anybody out - opposing baserunners are 15x16 in successfully reaching base, but at least he provides a little pop. Since June 1, Conger is hitting .296/.387/.537 in 62 PAs.
First Base
We've covered this, and I don't wanna do it again.
Second Base
Jose Altuve (363 PAs): .293/.335/.412, 34K:20BB
Jose Altuve has pretty much established himself as one of the premier second basemen in the game. Finally, and I can't believe it's taken this long, he's not just the short little guy who might be able to hit because he has the strike zone the size of a Kraft Single. At this point, Altuve is a career .301/.339/.402 hitter, for a 106 OPS+. And that includes the 2013 season where Altuve "struggled," hitting .283/.316/.363 and the Astros pounced to sign him to an unbelievably friendly 6yr deal with team options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Altuve is hitting .325/.363/.439 with 87K:56BB in 1070 PAs. No, he doesn't walk a lot, but he does make contact. Altuve's .304 average is a fraction of a percentage point behind Robinson Cano for the best BA among 2B from 2012-15 and is 10th in all of baseball. His 667 hits from 2012-15 are 2nd in baseball, behind Miguel Cabrera. He is first among all 2Bs with 149 stolen bases - ten more than Dee Gordon.
Whatever, we all know how good Altuve is. He did hit a rough patch from May 2 - June 24, coinciding with his hamstring issues, hitting .229/.274/.313 where he had almost as many GIDPs (6) as he did extra-base hits (8). But starting with the Yankees series on June 25, he's hitting .324/.370/.515.
Basically, Altuve is the cornerstone of the infield, and God willing he and Correa will anchor the middle of the diamond for the next 150 years (because the Astros will eventually use Ground Control to cheat death.)
Shortstop
Jed Lowrie (74 PAs): .300/.432/.567
Marwin Gonzalez (203 PAs): .253/.279/.412
Jonathan Villar (105 PAs): .263/.317/.368
Carlos Correa (141 PAs): .276/.312/.507
Ahh shortstop. Jed Lowrie started the season entrenched at short with Carlos Correa starting in Corpus. Both were destined for other, more obvious things: Lowrie hurt his thumb and Correa hurt the Texas League. The Astros struggles at shortstop in the intermediate period between Lowrie going down and Correa coming up were well-documented and there's a chance that you're like me and you've quadruple-checked Villar's batting average because you can't remember Villar ever getting a hit, much less hitting .263.
Correa is staying in Houston when Lowrie returns. What happens to Lowrie remains to be seen, but he's not going to be at shortstop unless Correa needs a break. So I think (and I'm not exactly breaking news here) that you'll see Lowrie spend some time at 1B, 3B, and DH, with most of his time at 3B. Lowrie has logged 83 games at 3B in his career, but none since 2011.
But Correa has been everything you could have asked for in his first 32 games. Consider it this way: Correa in 32 games has seven homers, which is 9th-best among shortstops for the entire year. His 128 wRC+ is 2nd among ML shortstops, and his 1.5 WAR is already tied for 9th in MLB. Will there come a time for pitchers to adjust to Carlos Correa?Sure there will. Maybe so, and Correa's numbers are going to dip, but then they're going to come back up, because Correa is a supastar.
If we're asking for things, we would ask that Correa improve against righty pitching. In the Majors (88 PAs), he's hitting .238/.273/.405. This is interesting because in 62 ABs at Fresno, Correa hit .242/.319/.339 against righties.
Third Base
Luis Valbuena (323 PAs): .199/.285/.430
Luis Valbuena is having one of the weirdest seasons I've ever seen. His .199 average is held down by a .193 BABIP, which is around 100 points lower than his BABIP for the Cubs in 2014. And he's not hitting the ball softly, either. FanGraphs said that he's hitting balls softly 15.7% of the time (15.0% in in 2014), meaning that he's hitting the ball medium to hard about 84% of the time he puts it in play, it's just not dropping for a hit (or it's leaving the park). Valbuena isn't changing his approach, either. His swing percentages (via FanGraphs) are all in line with his career-to-date. It's just the weirdest thing.
Of the 19 home runs Valbuena has hit in 2015, 14 have been solo shots, which might mean something (it might not, I'm not thinking about that too hard right now). Eight of those home runs have either tied the game or given the Astros the lead.
Still, the thing with Valbuena is the same thing with Chris Carter: how long do you wait for the numbers to rebound? Or is Valbuena's power worth dealing with the low average? His last home run came on June 23 (he hit two against Seattle), and in that time frame he's hitting .222/.364/.239 with a .303 BABIP. Is that the player Valbuena is? It's hard to get a handle on, because this season has been so bizarre.
Outfield
Colby Rasmus (249 PAs): .237/.305/.460
Jake Marisnick (218 PAs): .239/.274/.373
Preston Tucker (196 PAs): .256/.316/.417
George Springer (324 PAs): .264/.365/.457
More devastating than the Lowrie injury is Springer's injury at Edinson "The Butcher" Volquez, damn his eyes. Springer was leading the team in OBP (.365) and OPS+ (129) when Volquez hit him with a pitch and knocked him out until early September at the earliest. But his stats don't tell the whole story of how Springer was heating up and turning into the player we all kind of expected him to before Volquez cut his season in half. At the end of May, Springer was hitting .222/.347/.414. He displayed a decent amount of patience, but wasn't connecting on the pitches that looked like they were piped down the middle. But from June 1 - July 1 (the date of Volquez's crime against humanity), Springer hit .325/.394/.518 with a .403 BABIP. He was stinging the ball. Replacing that level of production will be almost impossible.
Jake Marisnick started out the season hot, peaking at an 1.100 OPS (.383/.433/.667) at the end of play on May 1. Marisnick's play was a key reason in why the Astros began the season 18-7. But he, too, has fallen back to earth, his numbers settling back in line with his career numbers. From May 2 to the Break (and with him missing some time due to injury), Marisnick is hitting .177/.203/.248 with 48K:4BB in 150 PAs. This is awful.
Colby Rasmus, who is a national treasure, was doing fine until a spider (or some other critter) bite landed him in the hospital for fluids. Rasmus was hitting .247/.321/.485 before the bite - but since returning, he's hitting .167/.194/.300 in 31 PAs. Given that he returned to the lineup on July 4 - after Springer's HBP - that isn't going to cut it.
Preston Tucker's first 20 games in the Majors were fantastic, resulting in him hitting .308/.384/.523 with multi-hit games six times in those 20 games. Since then, he's come back down to earth, hitting .226/.276/.357 with 27K:8BB in 123 PAs. But there are signs of recent life: on the nine-game road trip, Tucker hit .300/.333/.425, albeit with a .344 BABIP.
So what to make of this? There are certainly more questions than answers. Tomorrow we'll take a look at the pitching staff to get a fuller picture of what the Astros' needs are over the next two weeks before the Trade Deadline.
Schedule
It certainly could be that what the Astros need more than anything is the four-day break that the All-Star Game provides. After all, the Astros have played 91 games - the A's, Phillies, Rays, and Blue Jays have played 91 games, but nobody has played more. They could just be worn out. They have had two days off since June 1, playing 40 games in 42 days - 24 of those games played on the road in Toronto, Chicago, Colorado, Seattle, Anaheim, Boston, Cleveland, and Tampa.
There are 71 games left in the season, 37 of which are at home. Of those 71 games, 38 are against teams that are currently under .500, with the breakdown of remaining games vs teams as follows:
vs AL West:
13 vs. Texas (6 home, 7 away)
10 vs. Oakland (3 home, 7 away)
9 vs. Anaheim (6 home, 3 away)
6 vs. Seattle (3 home, 3 away)
vs. AL Central:
6 vs. Minnesota (3 home, 3 away)
3 vs. Kansas City (3 away)
3 vs. Detroit (3 home)
vs. AL East
4 vs. Tampa Bay (4 home)
3 vs. Boston (3 home)
3 vs. New York (3 away)
Interleague
6 vs. Arizona (3 home, 3 away)
3 vs. Los Angeles (3 home)
2 vs. San Francisco (2 away)
Against these teams the Astros are cumulatively 31-26, with a 22-16 record against the rest of the AL West to this point in the season and 38 division games remaining. Some of these teams are still figuring themselves out. Certainly six against the Twins and three against the Dodgers doesn't look like a whole lot of fun. But the Astros will be playing fewer games the rest of the way than almost every other team.
The point of this is, infuriatingly, to say who the hell knows what's coming down the pike? When Springer returns in September, will it be just in time to make a late-season push, or will it be too late? The A's gave up Addison Russell for a two months of Jeff Samardzija and one playoff game against the Royals - are you comfortable with that?
Whose time runs out first: Carter? Valbuena? Can Lowrie provide enough of a spark for the offense to not be so damn streaky? Will Edinson Volquez accidentally fall down an open elevator shaft in Kansas City? Why aren't the Cardinals in jail right now?
What I do know is this: I'm pretty happy I'm not Jeff Luhnow right now.
We knew this was how the offense was going to go. Back when the Astros were 18-7, we made the comparison of the 2015 Astros to the 2014 Brewers, whose offense was built on unsustainable power. Even if that power *is* sustainable, there will be stretches where the power blinks. So let's zoom in on the offense and try to figure out what has happened through the first 91 games of the season.
Catcher:
Jason Castro (237 PAs): .212/.283/.363, 66K:20BB
Hank Conger (116 PAs): .232/.339/.434, 30K:16BB
Castro has come a long way since 2013 when he was the lone All-Star and didn't even get to play in the game, but it's not in a good way. In 2013 Castro broke out, hitting .276/.350/.485 with 18 home runs. That was a fun year. Since then, however, Castro has struggled. His stats stretching back to the beginning of the 2014 season show that he's hitting .219/.285/.365 with 21 homers in 677 plate appearances. This is...not great. In May 2015, he hit .250/.289/.444, which was nice, but he's hitting .185/.261/.309 since. Part of Castro's issues over the last season and a half come from him not using the entire field. In 2013, Castro pulled the ball 34% of the time, meaning that he either went back up the middle or to the opposite field in 66% of the balls he put in play. In 2015, that Pull% is a career-high 45%. He's trying to pull the ball, isn't hitting the ball as hard, and is impatient. Put it this way: in 491 PAs in 2013, Castro drew 50 walks. In 749 PAs in 2014-15, he's drawn 54 walks. Part of it could be that the 2013 Astros lineup wasn't even Petty Thieves' Row, much less Murderer's Row, but Castro has to improve. Where Castro has improved is his defense, throwing out 38% of the runners who try to steal on him, and it's his defense which is largely responsible for FanGraphs giving him a 1.0 WAR. Castro arbitration-eligible for the last time in 2016, but the Astros not locking him up following 2013 seems to be the right call.
Conger has been exactly what the Astros likely hoped for: a solid backup catcher, who maybe should be getting more playing time. Hell, he hit a game-winning homer in the 14th inning against the Rangers in his second game in an Astros jersey, so right there he is first in our hearts. Neither Conger (.577 OPS) nor Castro (.591 OPS) can hit lefty pitching, but Conger is hitting .311/.426/.578 in 54 PAs against righties. Conger can't throw anybody out - opposing baserunners are 15x16 in successfully reaching base, but at least he provides a little pop. Since June 1, Conger is hitting .296/.387/.537 in 62 PAs.
First Base
We've covered this, and I don't wanna do it again.
Second Base
Jose Altuve (363 PAs): .293/.335/.412, 34K:20BB
Jose Altuve has pretty much established himself as one of the premier second basemen in the game. Finally, and I can't believe it's taken this long, he's not just the short little guy who might be able to hit because he has the strike zone the size of a Kraft Single. At this point, Altuve is a career .301/.339/.402 hitter, for a 106 OPS+. And that includes the 2013 season where Altuve "struggled," hitting .283/.316/.363 and the Astros pounced to sign him to an unbelievably friendly 6yr deal with team options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Altuve is hitting .325/.363/.439 with 87K:56BB in 1070 PAs. No, he doesn't walk a lot, but he does make contact. Altuve's .304 average is a fraction of a percentage point behind Robinson Cano for the best BA among 2B from 2012-15 and is 10th in all of baseball. His 667 hits from 2012-15 are 2nd in baseball, behind Miguel Cabrera. He is first among all 2Bs with 149 stolen bases - ten more than Dee Gordon.
Whatever, we all know how good Altuve is. He did hit a rough patch from May 2 - June 24, coinciding with his hamstring issues, hitting .229/.274/.313 where he had almost as many GIDPs (6) as he did extra-base hits (8). But starting with the Yankees series on June 25, he's hitting .324/.370/.515.
Basically, Altuve is the cornerstone of the infield, and God willing he and Correa will anchor the middle of the diamond for the next 150 years (because the Astros will eventually use Ground Control to cheat death.)
Shortstop
Jed Lowrie (74 PAs): .300/.432/.567
Marwin Gonzalez (203 PAs): .253/.279/.412
Jonathan Villar (105 PAs): .263/.317/.368
Carlos Correa (141 PAs): .276/.312/.507
Ahh shortstop. Jed Lowrie started the season entrenched at short with Carlos Correa starting in Corpus. Both were destined for other, more obvious things: Lowrie hurt his thumb and Correa hurt the Texas League. The Astros struggles at shortstop in the intermediate period between Lowrie going down and Correa coming up were well-documented and there's a chance that you're like me and you've quadruple-checked Villar's batting average because you can't remember Villar ever getting a hit, much less hitting .263.
Correa is staying in Houston when Lowrie returns. What happens to Lowrie remains to be seen, but he's not going to be at shortstop unless Correa needs a break. So I think (and I'm not exactly breaking news here) that you'll see Lowrie spend some time at 1B, 3B, and DH, with most of his time at 3B. Lowrie has logged 83 games at 3B in his career, but none since 2011.
But Correa has been everything you could have asked for in his first 32 games. Consider it this way: Correa in 32 games has seven homers, which is 9th-best among shortstops for the entire year. His 128 wRC+ is 2nd among ML shortstops, and his 1.5 WAR is already tied for 9th in MLB. Will there come a time for pitchers to adjust to Carlos Correa?
If we're asking for things, we would ask that Correa improve against righty pitching. In the Majors (88 PAs), he's hitting .238/.273/.405. This is interesting because in 62 ABs at Fresno, Correa hit .242/.319/.339 against righties.
Third Base
Luis Valbuena (323 PAs): .199/.285/.430
Luis Valbuena is having one of the weirdest seasons I've ever seen. His .199 average is held down by a .193 BABIP, which is around 100 points lower than his BABIP for the Cubs in 2014. And he's not hitting the ball softly, either. FanGraphs said that he's hitting balls softly 15.7% of the time (15.0% in in 2014), meaning that he's hitting the ball medium to hard about 84% of the time he puts it in play, it's just not dropping for a hit (or it's leaving the park). Valbuena isn't changing his approach, either. His swing percentages (via FanGraphs) are all in line with his career-to-date. It's just the weirdest thing.
Of the 19 home runs Valbuena has hit in 2015, 14 have been solo shots, which might mean something (it might not, I'm not thinking about that too hard right now). Eight of those home runs have either tied the game or given the Astros the lead.
Still, the thing with Valbuena is the same thing with Chris Carter: how long do you wait for the numbers to rebound? Or is Valbuena's power worth dealing with the low average? His last home run came on June 23 (he hit two against Seattle), and in that time frame he's hitting .222/.364/.239 with a .303 BABIP. Is that the player Valbuena is? It's hard to get a handle on, because this season has been so bizarre.
Outfield
Colby Rasmus (249 PAs): .237/.305/.460
Jake Marisnick (218 PAs): .239/.274/.373
Preston Tucker (196 PAs): .256/.316/.417
George Springer (324 PAs): .264/.365/.457
More devastating than the Lowrie injury is Springer's injury at Edinson "The Butcher" Volquez, damn his eyes. Springer was leading the team in OBP (.365) and OPS+ (129) when Volquez hit him with a pitch and knocked him out until early September at the earliest. But his stats don't tell the whole story of how Springer was heating up and turning into the player we all kind of expected him to before Volquez cut his season in half. At the end of May, Springer was hitting .222/.347/.414. He displayed a decent amount of patience, but wasn't connecting on the pitches that looked like they were piped down the middle. But from June 1 - July 1 (the date of Volquez's crime against humanity), Springer hit .325/.394/.518 with a .403 BABIP. He was stinging the ball. Replacing that level of production will be almost impossible.
Jake Marisnick started out the season hot, peaking at an 1.100 OPS (.383/.433/.667) at the end of play on May 1. Marisnick's play was a key reason in why the Astros began the season 18-7. But he, too, has fallen back to earth, his numbers settling back in line with his career numbers. From May 2 to the Break (and with him missing some time due to injury), Marisnick is hitting .177/.203/.248 with 48K:4BB in 150 PAs. This is awful.
Colby Rasmus, who is a national treasure, was doing fine until a spider (or some other critter) bite landed him in the hospital for fluids. Rasmus was hitting .247/.321/.485 before the bite - but since returning, he's hitting .167/.194/.300 in 31 PAs. Given that he returned to the lineup on July 4 - after Springer's HBP - that isn't going to cut it.
Preston Tucker's first 20 games in the Majors were fantastic, resulting in him hitting .308/.384/.523 with multi-hit games six times in those 20 games. Since then, he's come back down to earth, hitting .226/.276/.357 with 27K:8BB in 123 PAs. But there are signs of recent life: on the nine-game road trip, Tucker hit .300/.333/.425, albeit with a .344 BABIP.
So what to make of this? There are certainly more questions than answers. Tomorrow we'll take a look at the pitching staff to get a fuller picture of what the Astros' needs are over the next two weeks before the Trade Deadline.
Schedule
It certainly could be that what the Astros need more than anything is the four-day break that the All-Star Game provides. After all, the Astros have played 91 games - the A's, Phillies, Rays, and Blue Jays have played 91 games, but nobody has played more. They could just be worn out. They have had two days off since June 1, playing 40 games in 42 days - 24 of those games played on the road in Toronto, Chicago, Colorado, Seattle, Anaheim, Boston, Cleveland, and Tampa.
There are 71 games left in the season, 37 of which are at home. Of those 71 games, 38 are against teams that are currently under .500, with the breakdown of remaining games vs teams as follows:
vs AL West:
13 vs. Texas (6 home, 7 away)
10 vs. Oakland (3 home, 7 away)
9 vs. Anaheim (6 home, 3 away)
6 vs. Seattle (3 home, 3 away)
vs. AL Central:
6 vs. Minnesota (3 home, 3 away)
3 vs. Kansas City (3 away)
3 vs. Detroit (3 home)
vs. AL East
4 vs. Tampa Bay (4 home)
3 vs. Boston (3 home)
3 vs. New York (3 away)
Interleague
6 vs. Arizona (3 home, 3 away)
3 vs. Los Angeles (3 home)
2 vs. San Francisco (2 away)
Against these teams the Astros are cumulatively 31-26, with a 22-16 record against the rest of the AL West to this point in the season and 38 division games remaining. Some of these teams are still figuring themselves out. Certainly six against the Twins and three against the Dodgers doesn't look like a whole lot of fun. But the Astros will be playing fewer games the rest of the way than almost every other team.
The point of this is, infuriatingly, to say who the hell knows what's coming down the pike? When Springer returns in September, will it be just in time to make a late-season push, or will it be too late? The A's gave up Addison Russell for a two months of Jeff Samardzija and one playoff game against the Royals - are you comfortable with that?
Whose time runs out first: Carter? Valbuena? Can Lowrie provide enough of a spark for the offense to not be so damn streaky? Will Edinson Volquez accidentally fall down an open elevator shaft in Kansas City? Why aren't the Cardinals in jail right now?
What I do know is this: I'm pretty happy I'm not Jeff Luhnow right now.
Friday, May 22, 2015
State of the Astros: Catcher
Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.
Starter - Jason Castro
Castro is starting to make people think that his 2013 All-Star year may have been his career year, even though he's still just 27. Despite his batting average dropping from even last season's, he's actually made some improvements offensively. His walk rate is up about 2% while he's dramatically cut down on his strikeouts, cutting about 7.5% from last year. He's regained some of his pop and his .237 BABIP this year indicates his batting average could see a rebound. He's even seen a good bump in his caught stealing rate, to the point where he's been above average in 2015. Looking at the most widely used projection systems for the rest of the season Castro is trending towards being a 2-3 WAR player this year. That would make him a middle of the pack starting catcher.
Reasonable end of season projection ranges
AVG - .215-.240
OBP - .285-.315
SLG - .380-.410
Backup - Hank Conger
The trade for Conger still looks like a bit of a head scratcher. We all heard about his pitch framing prowess, but with his limited playing time so far I can't help but wonder how much good that's doing for the club. When you factor in that the Astros gave up Nick Tropeano, a young starter with potential who's turned in one strong start for the Angels this year, and Carlos Perez, a backup catcher who has held his own in the majors so far with almost as much playing time this year as Conger, this one is looking like a needless trade. As far as his performance, 41 plate appearances isn't enough to give us an indication of how he'll perform over a season. His batting average is abysmal, but he's sporting a nearly 20% walk rate and two of his three hits have been home runs, so he's actually close to league average offensively in an extremely small sample size. His .176 BABIP indicates his average will come up, but his track record says his walk rate will come way down so his OBP probably is about right. Projections put him at a .5-1 WAR player by the end of the season, which is a small return for the above mentioned prospects.
Reasonable end of season projection ranges
AVG - .180-.230 (wide range due to small sample size so far)
OBP - .295-.330
SLG - .345-.375
Prospect - Max Stassi
We've heard for a couple years now that the front office thinks of Stassi as the "Catcher of the Future". Barring injury, I don't think he'll get any meaningful playing time until possibly September. Of course, if the Astros are still in the playoff hunt at that point in the year, even that may not happen. He's struggled quite a bit in AAA, especially so far this year, so the bloom may be off the rose with Max. So far this year he's striking out at a pace that would make Chris Carter proud. He's shown an ability to get hot fast in the past, albeit at AA, so I don't think it's quite time to give up on him yet, but this season is pivotal for him. But we'll always have the memory of him getting his first major league RBI by catching a pitch with his teeth.
Prospect - Jacob Nottingham
Nottingham has been creeping up the bottom of the Astros prospect lists the last couple seasons. He's expected to develop into a power hitter, though there's a little concern he may not stick behind the plate. After mixed results the last couple years with the Gulf Coast squad and in Greeneville, Nottingham is off to a strong start with Quad Cities, the best minor league team in baseball so far this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and his power has been showing up more frequently, as he's currently sporting a .250 ISO, including six homers in 121 plate appearances. He's still a few years away, but behind Stassi he's the biggest hope at catcher down on the farm.
Prospect - Tyler Heineman
Heineman isn't appearing on many prospect lists, but this switch hitting catcher shouldn't be forgotten. In his second season at Corpus he's putting together a solid season. He doesn't look like a power guy, but he's been showing a solid ability to handle the strike zone with a solid walk rate and a very good strikeout rate (just 6.3% so far this year, 12 % last year). Defensively, he has a strong 43% caught stealing rate so far. He's not the kind of prospect you can dream on, but he could turn into a solid player.
Summary
Depending on the rest of Stassi's season, it looks like Castro is still the catcher of the next few seasons. He'll get more expensive as he works his way through his arbitration years, probably ending up around $8-10 million per season. If he can continue to produce between 2 and 3 WAR per year, that's about right. Conger is just as much of question mark as he was at the beginning of the year. Stassi may be playing his way out of his prospect status and Luhnow's Christmas card list and Nottingham is too far away to expect anything soon. I'd grade the Astros overall catcher situation as a C+.
Starter - Jason Castro
Castro is starting to make people think that his 2013 All-Star year may have been his career year, even though he's still just 27. Despite his batting average dropping from even last season's, he's actually made some improvements offensively. His walk rate is up about 2% while he's dramatically cut down on his strikeouts, cutting about 7.5% from last year. He's regained some of his pop and his .237 BABIP this year indicates his batting average could see a rebound. He's even seen a good bump in his caught stealing rate, to the point where he's been above average in 2015. Looking at the most widely used projection systems for the rest of the season Castro is trending towards being a 2-3 WAR player this year. That would make him a middle of the pack starting catcher.
Reasonable end of season projection ranges
AVG - .215-.240
OBP - .285-.315
SLG - .380-.410
Backup - Hank Conger
The trade for Conger still looks like a bit of a head scratcher. We all heard about his pitch framing prowess, but with his limited playing time so far I can't help but wonder how much good that's doing for the club. When you factor in that the Astros gave up Nick Tropeano, a young starter with potential who's turned in one strong start for the Angels this year, and Carlos Perez, a backup catcher who has held his own in the majors so far with almost as much playing time this year as Conger, this one is looking like a needless trade. As far as his performance, 41 plate appearances isn't enough to give us an indication of how he'll perform over a season. His batting average is abysmal, but he's sporting a nearly 20% walk rate and two of his three hits have been home runs, so he's actually close to league average offensively in an extremely small sample size. His .176 BABIP indicates his average will come up, but his track record says his walk rate will come way down so his OBP probably is about right. Projections put him at a .5-1 WAR player by the end of the season, which is a small return for the above mentioned prospects.
Reasonable end of season projection ranges
AVG - .180-.230 (wide range due to small sample size so far)
OBP - .295-.330
SLG - .345-.375
Prospect - Max Stassi
We've heard for a couple years now that the front office thinks of Stassi as the "Catcher of the Future". Barring injury, I don't think he'll get any meaningful playing time until possibly September. Of course, if the Astros are still in the playoff hunt at that point in the year, even that may not happen. He's struggled quite a bit in AAA, especially so far this year, so the bloom may be off the rose with Max. So far this year he's striking out at a pace that would make Chris Carter proud. He's shown an ability to get hot fast in the past, albeit at AA, so I don't think it's quite time to give up on him yet, but this season is pivotal for him. But we'll always have the memory of him getting his first major league RBI by catching a pitch with his teeth.
Prospect - Jacob Nottingham
Nottingham has been creeping up the bottom of the Astros prospect lists the last couple seasons. He's expected to develop into a power hitter, though there's a little concern he may not stick behind the plate. After mixed results the last couple years with the Gulf Coast squad and in Greeneville, Nottingham is off to a strong start with Quad Cities, the best minor league team in baseball so far this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and his power has been showing up more frequently, as he's currently sporting a .250 ISO, including six homers in 121 plate appearances. He's still a few years away, but behind Stassi he's the biggest hope at catcher down on the farm.
Prospect - Tyler Heineman
Heineman isn't appearing on many prospect lists, but this switch hitting catcher shouldn't be forgotten. In his second season at Corpus he's putting together a solid season. He doesn't look like a power guy, but he's been showing a solid ability to handle the strike zone with a solid walk rate and a very good strikeout rate (just 6.3% so far this year, 12 % last year). Defensively, he has a strong 43% caught stealing rate so far. He's not the kind of prospect you can dream on, but he could turn into a solid player.
Summary
Depending on the rest of Stassi's season, it looks like Castro is still the catcher of the next few seasons. He'll get more expensive as he works his way through his arbitration years, probably ending up around $8-10 million per season. If he can continue to produce between 2 and 3 WAR per year, that's about right. Conger is just as much of question mark as he was at the beginning of the year. Stassi may be playing his way out of his prospect status and Luhnow's Christmas card list and Nottingham is too far away to expect anything soon. I'd grade the Astros overall catcher situation as a C+.
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Thursday Morning Link Dump
*At 21-13, FanGraphs has the Astros at 29.4% to win the division (+2.8%) and 44.8% to make the postseason.
*Brett Oberholtzer's return lasted all of three innings as his blister re-opened, and he's back on the DL (This opened right up for me, but a subscription may be required) A.J. Hinch:
His skin had built up a little toughness, almost like a callus on his finger where the blister was before, and had no problems leading up to his last inning and then it just popped off almost like clean.
Jake Buchanan is rumored to be on his way up to replace Oberholtzer.
*Richard Justice writes about game-changer George Springer.
*Ken Rosenthal does some light swearing in wondering why the Astros haven't called up Carlos Correa.
This is, or should be, a baseball decision, a decision between Correa and the Astros' current shortstops, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar, a decision that could influence whether Houston steals the surprisingly mediocre AL West.
*Sports on Earth's Tim Healey says the Astros should trade Mark Appel, Domingo Santana, and Vincent Velasquez or Michael Feliz for Cole Hamels.
*Hank Conger now has a first baseman's mitt, just in case.
*Preston Tucker is looking forward to getting comfortable.
*The Fresno Bee has an article on Jon Singleton's big night.
*Here's an interesting piece on post-baseball Aubrey Huff
*Luke Scott has signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays
*Brett Oberholtzer's return lasted all of three innings as his blister re-opened, and he's back on the DL (This opened right up for me, but a subscription may be required) A.J. Hinch:
His skin had built up a little toughness, almost like a callus on his finger where the blister was before, and had no problems leading up to his last inning and then it just popped off almost like clean.
Jake Buchanan is rumored to be on his way up to replace Oberholtzer.
*Richard Justice writes about game-changer George Springer.
*Ken Rosenthal does some light swearing in wondering why the Astros haven't called up Carlos Correa.
This is, or should be, a baseball decision, a decision between Correa and the Astros' current shortstops, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar, a decision that could influence whether Houston steals the surprisingly mediocre AL West.
*Sports on Earth's Tim Healey says the Astros should trade Mark Appel, Domingo Santana, and Vincent Velasquez or Michael Feliz for Cole Hamels.
*Hank Conger now has a first baseman's mitt, just in case.
*Preston Tucker is looking forward to getting comfortable.
*The Fresno Bee has an article on Jon Singleton's big night.
*Here's an interesting piece on post-baseball Aubrey Huff
*Luke Scott has signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays
Sunday, May 10, 2015
Sunday Morning Hot Links
At 20-11, the Astros have a 34.1% chance to win the division and a 48.0% chance of making it to the postseason, according to FanGraphs.
*Maybe you noticed, but Marisnick was batting leadoff, and Altuve hit 2nd last night.
*George Springer stayed in Houston for this trip, and Hinch doesn't know if he'll be activated from the 7-Day DL on Wednesday.
*Evan Drellich has a profile on ace Dallas Keuchel
*It's from a couple of days ago, but Jeff Luhnow told the LA Times, "It's satisfying to be relevant again."
*Hank Conger grew up an Angels fan then was the Angels' 1st Round pick in 2006, and has caught the last five Keuchel starts.
*The Fresno Bee looks at Jon Singleton's unusual struggles vs. LHPs, and manager Tony DeFrancesco is going to let him figure it out.
*The Des Moines Register talked to A.J. Hinch about his Iowa roots.
*Maybe you noticed, but Marisnick was batting leadoff, and Altuve hit 2nd last night.
*George Springer stayed in Houston for this trip, and Hinch doesn't know if he'll be activated from the 7-Day DL on Wednesday.
*Evan Drellich has a profile on ace Dallas Keuchel
*It's from a couple of days ago, but Jeff Luhnow told the LA Times, "It's satisfying to be relevant again."
*Hank Conger grew up an Angels fan then was the Angels' 1st Round pick in 2006, and has caught the last five Keuchel starts.
*The Fresno Bee looks at Jon Singleton's unusual struggles vs. LHPs, and manager Tony DeFrancesco is going to let him figure it out.
*The Des Moines Register talked to A.J. Hinch about his Iowa roots.
Thursday, May 7, 2015
Preston Tucker gets The Call!
Congratulations to seventh-round pick, Preston Tucker, who has hit well at every level of the minors that he has played at. With a minor league line of .296/.365/.507, and a 2015 line of .320/.378/.650, Tucker has earned his call up. And he brings some speed - he has one stolen base this year.
So, those of you who read the recent game recaps would have seen that:
So, those of you who read the recent game recaps would have seen that:
- George Springer hit the 7-day concussion disabled list on Wednesday. This DL is not retroactive, so he is on the DL for 7 days from when he was put on.
- The bullpen has been worked quite hard this year. It has been worked extra hard the last few games, pitching 6 innings on Tuesday and 4 innings on Wednesday. Home blowout losses double-suck because of the extra half-inning the 'pen has to manage. The Astros just had two of them in a row.
- The bench was already short, carrying three guys including one backup catcher.
- And, speaking of backup catchers, Hank Conger appeared in left field for the Astros in a fielders' version of mop-up duty.
Tucker is not on the 40-man, so a corresponding move needs to be made. There are a variety of them, but the most likely is that Jed Lowrie will head to the 60-day DL. Someone will need to be removed from the 40-man for Jed to be activated again, but that problem is, uh, 60-odd days away. I recently wrote a little about potential options when L.J. Hoes was sent back down, and in a lot of ways, a little bit of playing time for a couple of the guys in AAA is a good thing. And Preston Tucker has been the best of the lot this year in Fresno.
And, given the state of the 'pen, this may not be the only move that is made.
And, given the state of the 'pen, this may not be the only move that is made.
So, I will be an interested observer when the Astros head to Anaheim tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see if Tucker starts against the lefty, Santiago. But the time zones are in my favour, and with a playoff basketball series going on, some Texans may prefer to sleep. Regardless, the next few months are going to be interesting, and Preston Tucker is one of the reasons why.
Preston, enjoy your debut (whenever it happens) and best of luck.
(Update: As the below commentator said, Ronald Torreyes has been DFA'd. Outcome awaited)
(Update: As the below commentator said, Ronald Torreyes has been DFA'd. Outcome awaited)
Thursday, March 5, 2015
The Offseason Market for Catchers has been Strange
I wrote, after the Conger trade, that his acquisition would best be evaluated at the end of the offseason. This was in anticipation that Hank Conger and Max Stassi (prior to the Gattis acquisition) would most likely form some kind of catching platoon in 2015, and Jason Castro would be traded for Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant. Or both.
But the second move never happened. Which I thought was odd, given the speed at which the Astros reeled in Conger, and the apparent talent cost for the acquisition. A number of other catching deals went down in the offseason - Miguel Montero went to the Cubbies, Russell Martin got 80-odd million to play in Canada, and the Padres sent some catchers (along with half of the rest of their roster) to all points of the compass, getting some other catchers back. But interestingly, neither the Cubs or the Blue Jays - who acquired top-flight catchers - have been able to trade their now-presumed backups (Welington Castillo and Dioner Navarro respectively) despite both being identified as trade candidates, and both publicly welcoming being traded.
I have three ideas as to why this may be the case.
Firstly, catching is physically demanding, catchers get banged up, so why bother investing a lot of money or high draft picks in superstar catchers if there are cheap replacements.
Secondly, catching is kind of a black art in the sense that less easily-measurable skills - such as pitch-framing - are sometimes measured and prioritised by various bright individuals. So perhaps teams are willing to carry a lesser bat in exchange for a guy who gets on well with the pitchers and is a good catch-and-throw guy. But the public does not really see that, because the easiest way to evaluate a player is via the offensive triple-slash line.
Thirdly, perhaps no teams have a clear catching weakness, as this FanGraphs article suggests. Note that it was written after the Montero trade (when the Diamondbacks had exactly no-one pencilled in to don the tools of ignorance) and still no catchers make the top-10 list. Scroll down a little bit, and you will see that the only team that has catching as their biggest weakness is the D-Backs. And their GM, Dave Stewart, has already publicly said that they are not interested in pursuing catching - but read into that what you want. So Arizona doesn't seem to be a suitor, and no one else has an obvious, outstanding need.
The FanGraphs article, however, relies on projected WAR to assess where the weak spots are. Some of that analysis becomes a little skewed because of the positional adjustments used to determine WAR. All catchers get an automatic bonus of +12.5 runs per 162 games, so catchers as a population are already projected 5 runs more valuable than a shortshop, purely based on the position played.
It is also very possible that I (and other commentators) over-read the Conger trade, and erroneously jumped to the conclusion that Conger's arrival would mean Castro's exit. I thought that the perceived gap in offensive talent is probably smaller than Astros fans may realise, so perhaps Conger was acquired as a younger and cheaper version of Castro.
But perhaps the plan is to hope Castro has a hot half-season, and look for a trade-deadline transaction. Or perhaps Castro and Conger will job-share to stay fresh. Or perhaps the Astros were very comfortable trading a young, unproven starter (one that is ranked as the number 9 prospect in an otherwise weak system) for a backup catcher that is a significant improvement over Carlos Corporan.
But I still think that the offseason market for catchers has been strange. Feel free to share your thoughts.
But the second move never happened. Which I thought was odd, given the speed at which the Astros reeled in Conger, and the apparent talent cost for the acquisition. A number of other catching deals went down in the offseason - Miguel Montero went to the Cubbies, Russell Martin got 80-odd million to play in Canada, and the Padres sent some catchers (along with half of the rest of their roster) to all points of the compass, getting some other catchers back. But interestingly, neither the Cubs or the Blue Jays - who acquired top-flight catchers - have been able to trade their now-presumed backups (Welington Castillo and Dioner Navarro respectively) despite both being identified as trade candidates, and both publicly welcoming being traded.
I have three ideas as to why this may be the case.
Firstly, catching is physically demanding, catchers get banged up, so why bother investing a lot of money or high draft picks in superstar catchers if there are cheap replacements.
Secondly, catching is kind of a black art in the sense that less easily-measurable skills - such as pitch-framing - are sometimes measured and prioritised by various bright individuals. So perhaps teams are willing to carry a lesser bat in exchange for a guy who gets on well with the pitchers and is a good catch-and-throw guy. But the public does not really see that, because the easiest way to evaluate a player is via the offensive triple-slash line.
Thirdly, perhaps no teams have a clear catching weakness, as this FanGraphs article suggests. Note that it was written after the Montero trade (when the Diamondbacks had exactly no-one pencilled in to don the tools of ignorance) and still no catchers make the top-10 list. Scroll down a little bit, and you will see that the only team that has catching as their biggest weakness is the D-Backs. And their GM, Dave Stewart, has already publicly said that they are not interested in pursuing catching - but read into that what you want. So Arizona doesn't seem to be a suitor, and no one else has an obvious, outstanding need.
The FanGraphs article, however, relies on projected WAR to assess where the weak spots are. Some of that analysis becomes a little skewed because of the positional adjustments used to determine WAR. All catchers get an automatic bonus of +12.5 runs per 162 games, so catchers as a population are already projected 5 runs more valuable than a shortshop, purely based on the position played.
It is also very possible that I (and other commentators) over-read the Conger trade, and erroneously jumped to the conclusion that Conger's arrival would mean Castro's exit. I thought that the perceived gap in offensive talent is probably smaller than Astros fans may realise, so perhaps Conger was acquired as a younger and cheaper version of Castro.
But perhaps the plan is to hope Castro has a hot half-season, and look for a trade-deadline transaction. Or perhaps Castro and Conger will job-share to stay fresh. Or perhaps the Astros were very comfortable trading a young, unproven starter (one that is ranked as the number 9 prospect in an otherwise weak system) for a backup catcher that is a significant improvement over Carlos Corporan.
But I still think that the offseason market for catchers has been strange. Feel free to share your thoughts.
Friday, November 28, 2014
So Exactly How Different Are Jason Castro and Hank Conger??
When I first heard about the trade for Hank Conger, my first reaction was a definite WTF?!? My second reaction was a bit of sadness that Nick Tropeano was on his way out: he was a favourite of mine, and I was always interested in how his career would progress. But is is not exactly like he is changing leagues - let alone divisions - so I guess we will get plenty of chance to see how it all pans out for him.
Anyhow, I still sometimes find the trade a little puzzling. At the time, I wrote:
The whole thing may also become a little clearer come December 2, which is the deadline for when contracts need to be tendered. Carlos Corporan may be a little worried, but I imagine that he will be at least offered a contract. Then after that, more may be more whispered / known about during the Winter Meetings - which are being held in the entirely un-winter-like San Diego between Dec 8 and Dec 11.
But back to Castro and Conger...
Hyun Choi Conger will play most of 2015 as a 26-year-old. Jason Castro will play most of 2015 as a 27 year old. Conger is approximately 10 months younger than Castro. Conger was picked in the first round of the 2006 draft out of Huntington Beach High School. Castro was picked in the first round of the 2008 draft out of Stanford University, after originally being drafted in the 43rd round of the 2005 draft by the BoSawx. He returned to school late last year to finish his degree.
There is considerable value in Jason Castro: a lefty-catcher with good framing skills who had a 130 OPS+ season a year ago and who is still under team control for two more years. Hank Conger also hits well from the left side (great for a catcher), is rated as one of the best framers, and is under team control for three more years. Conger is described as a switch-hitter, but one amusing AC reader described him instead as a "switch batter". So there are parallels between Castro and Conger from the perspective of age, where they come from, handedness, framing-ness, and service times to this point.
So they seem kind of similar, which is why a number of pundits are predicting a trade. The main point of difference seems to be that Castro has a reputation as being a stronger hitter, but Conger has the rep for being the better defender. This may have something to do with the narratives surrounding each player: Castro has been a mainstay of a relatively weak Astros middle-order for the best part of two years, whereas Conger is normally stashed away in the 8 or 9 hole on a strong hitting Angels team. But as a very handsome and observant reader, Terence, pointed out in the comments section of the article linked earlier:
So lets look at exactly how different Castro and Conger are - mostly from the perspective of hitting (but I will draw upon some primitive defensive stuff at the end). The offensive comparisons are made easier because both players logged a significant number of plate appearances in the California League, Texas League and Pacific Coast League at around the same time. At worst, they were a year apart at each level, as the interested reader will discover below.
Because Conger turned pro out of High School, he started in Rookie Ball, aged 18 (2006). He signed right after the draft, and managed 19 games before the end of the 2006 season. At age 19 (2007) - his first full year as a pro - he split time between the Rookie League and Lo-A. At age 20 (2008), he spent the whole season in Hi-A with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the California League. And this is where we can pick up the comparisons, because Jason Castro played his first full pro-season in 2009, starting at Hi-A as a 22 year old. (Castro also signed in his draft year, and played in 39 games at Lo-A in the New York Penn League in 2008)
Conger, as a 20 year old in the California League in 2008, slashed .303/.333/.517 in 73 games - which constituted the whole season for him. He hit 13 home runs, and walked 14 times versus 55 strikeouts. As a 22 year old in the California League (Lancaster, 2009), Castro hit .309/.399/.517 in 56 games. Castro hit 7 home runs, walked 32 times, and struck out 41 times.
There are two big differences here: the relative ages for the league (favouring Conger), and the walks (favouring Castro). I note that Castro also had surprisingly little home-run power for the California League. Castro was promoted to Corpus Christi in time to play 63 AA games in 2009.
Conger played as a 21 year old in the Texas League, spending the whole season (2009) at Arkansas. In 123 games, his triple slash was .294/.368/.423, and he managed 11 home runs, with 55 walks versus 68 strikeouts. Castro, as mentioned above, caught up with Conger in AA, as he spent the second half of his 22 year old season (again, 2009) in the Texas League, slashing .293/.362/.385, and hitting 3 home runs, managing 25 walks against 35 strikeouts.
Conger's walk rate jumped in AA (10.5% versus 4.4% in Hi-A), and he showed a little more power than Castro, which is an impressive feat after a challenging jump between levels. However, 2009 was also Castro's first full pro season, and he was only sharing catching duties at Stanford, so it is very possible that wore down for the second half of the season, having played more baseball in a shorter time frame than he was previously used to.
Conger spent his age 22 season (2010) mostly at Salt Lake, in the Pacific Coast League. He also got a cup of coffee (13 games) in the Majors that year. In 108 AAA games, he slashed .300/.385/.463, with 11 home runs, and 55 walks versus 58 strikeouts. Castro got a little more than a cup of coffee in 2010 - kind of the whole pot, really - as a 23 year old. He played 67 games in the majors after 57 games at AAA Oklahoma. His AAA-line was .265/.365/.355, with 4 home runs and 32 walks against 34 strikeouts.
Advantage: Conger. He had a superior OBP, hit for more power and was the younger prospect. Castro's line was in a smaller sample, because his time in AAA was cut short by virtue of his midseason promotion.
2011 saw Conger return to Salt Lake for 27 games, before being promoted for 59 games in the Bigs. He continued to mash at AAA: .300/.375/.490, with 5 home runs and 12 walks versus 18 strikeouts. Conger also hit .209/.282/.356 with 6HR in 197 plate appearances in the Majors. Castro sat 2011 out because of an ACL injury that required a knee reconstruction, sustained while running to first base during spring training.
2012 saw Conger log 67 games in AAA Salt Lake, where he hit .295/.347/.473. Castro was back in the Bigs in 2012 for 87 games (after a total of 7 games in the minors on rehab assignments, where he absolutely raked) where he managed a pretty decent line: .257/.334/.401 (OPS+ of 99).
In 2013, both players were at the same level again: the major leagues. Conger played in 92 games, with a .249/.310/.403 line, hitting 7 bombs, and walking 17 times versus 61 strikeouts. His OPS+ was 101. Castro had a breakout 2013, propping up a bad Houston offence while slashing .276/.350/.485 in 102 games, hitting 18 home runs, walking 50 times, and striking out 130. His OPS+ was a very robust 130. Astros fans will remember Castro's monster 2013 quite well - or at least they should - as it was one of the very best offensive years in Astros' catching history.
In 2014, both players were again in the Majors. Conger played in 80 games, with a .221/.293/.325 line, hitting 4 home runs, and walking 22 times versus 57 strikeouts, resulting in an OPS+ of 79. Castro was similarly bad: .222/.286/.366, 14 home runs, 34 walks, and a hefty 151 strikeouts. His OPS+ was 83.
So that brings us to where we are now. What is surprising to me is how similarly their offence has been tracking, aside from Castro's outstanding All Star performance in 2013. Conger appeared to be a slightly superior prospect in A+, AA and AAA, mostly as the younger player. Castro seems to have handled the transition to the Major Leagues better, but much of his offence was in a fabulous 2013. And as reader Terence pointed out, they were pretty damn similar in terms of offence in 2014.
We can't ignore defence. Conger seems like the better defender. In the Major Leagues, appearing in 223 games wearing the Tools of Ignorance, Conger has allowed 3 passed balls, been involved in 84 wild pitches, and has caught 22% of baserunners stealing. Castro, in 358 games where he has appeared at catcher, has been responsible for 36 passed balls, been associated with 138 wild pitches, and has gunned down 24% of baserunners. Castro's 11 passed balls led the league in 2014, and he has never ranked better than 4th in the league in passed balls. It seems passed balls are a problem.
Caveat: the defensive statistics are clearly deficient, and are affected by the quality of the pitchers and the different philosophies of the pitching staffs. But there is still some use in the raw numbers, just avoid reading too much into them.
So now it is time for some conclusions. And here is what I see. Conger has been the better prospect (statistically speaking), playing at most levels at a younger age, hitting for more power, and, in some seasons, getting on base slightly better. Castro may have adjusted to Major League pitching better, and has one great year under his belt, which can't be discounted, because it may mean that he will do it again. Conger will be cheaper - projected to make 1.1 million on MLBTR in his first round through arbitration, whereas Castro is projected to make 3.9 million. Conger has breakout potential, Castro has broken out already, which makes predicting a strong offensive year in 2015 not entirely stupid.
So as Terence said, it is very possible that Conger is the better offensive player, and he certainly seems to be the better defensive catcher. He is younger, has another year of control, and is likely to be cheaper in 2015. The resolution of this situation - if there is one - will be fascinating, and may not be resolved until the 2015 trade deadline. We will see what the Front Office have planned in the coming months.
PS: Happy Thanksgiving!!
Anyhow, I still sometimes find the trade a little puzzling. At the time, I wrote:
"This will make more sense when the next move happens, but I am picking that Castro and Corporan will be traded this offseason. This may, in turn, free up uniform-number-15 for Will Harris. Stay tuned."Still waiting for that "next move", but I am also picking that the FA market will gather steam now that Panda and Han-Ram are both winging their way to Boston, and Russell Martin has returned to Canadia. Once the first of the FA pitchers comes off the market, it could all speed up as a number of teams will spring into action with their "Plan B's". The price for Castro has been described as ... um... high, and so this one may drag on toward Spring Training before it is - if it ever is - resolved. And if the worst thing is a job-share between Castro and Conger, that would not be the end of the world either.
The whole thing may also become a little clearer come December 2, which is the deadline for when contracts need to be tendered. Carlos Corporan may be a little worried, but I imagine that he will be at least offered a contract. Then after that, more may be more whispered / known about during the Winter Meetings - which are being held in the entirely un-winter-like San Diego between Dec 8 and Dec 11.
But back to Castro and Conger...
Hyun Choi Conger will play most of 2015 as a 26-year-old. Jason Castro will play most of 2015 as a 27 year old. Conger is approximately 10 months younger than Castro. Conger was picked in the first round of the 2006 draft out of Huntington Beach High School. Castro was picked in the first round of the 2008 draft out of Stanford University, after originally being drafted in the 43rd round of the 2005 draft by the BoSawx. He returned to school late last year to finish his degree.
There is considerable value in Jason Castro: a lefty-catcher with good framing skills who had a 130 OPS+ season a year ago and who is still under team control for two more years. Hank Conger also hits well from the left side (great for a catcher), is rated as one of the best framers, and is under team control for three more years. Conger is described as a switch-hitter, but one amusing AC reader described him instead as a "switch batter". So there are parallels between Castro and Conger from the perspective of age, where they come from, handedness, framing-ness, and service times to this point.
So they seem kind of similar, which is why a number of pundits are predicting a trade. The main point of difference seems to be that Castro has a reputation as being a stronger hitter, but Conger has the rep for being the better defender. This may have something to do with the narratives surrounding each player: Castro has been a mainstay of a relatively weak Astros middle-order for the best part of two years, whereas Conger is normally stashed away in the 8 or 9 hole on a strong hitting Angels team. But as a very handsome and observant reader, Terence, pointed out in the comments section of the article linked earlier:
"It might seem like Castro hit much better than Conger but that's because they played their home games in two very different parks. After park adjustment, Conger had a wRC+ of 82 last year, Castro was at 84. There's no discernible difference in the offensive skills displayed by these two players last year. Conger is younger, healthier, and produced better offensive numbers in the minors coming up. It is possible that the front office sees Conger as the better offensive player and that 2013 Jason Castro is never coming back."Astro County readers are awesome!!
So lets look at exactly how different Castro and Conger are - mostly from the perspective of hitting (but I will draw upon some primitive defensive stuff at the end). The offensive comparisons are made easier because both players logged a significant number of plate appearances in the California League, Texas League and Pacific Coast League at around the same time. At worst, they were a year apart at each level, as the interested reader will discover below.
Because Conger turned pro out of High School, he started in Rookie Ball, aged 18 (2006). He signed right after the draft, and managed 19 games before the end of the 2006 season. At age 19 (2007) - his first full year as a pro - he split time between the Rookie League and Lo-A. At age 20 (2008), he spent the whole season in Hi-A with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the California League. And this is where we can pick up the comparisons, because Jason Castro played his first full pro-season in 2009, starting at Hi-A as a 22 year old. (Castro also signed in his draft year, and played in 39 games at Lo-A in the New York Penn League in 2008)
Conger, as a 20 year old in the California League in 2008, slashed .303/.333/.517 in 73 games - which constituted the whole season for him. He hit 13 home runs, and walked 14 times versus 55 strikeouts. As a 22 year old in the California League (Lancaster, 2009), Castro hit .309/.399/.517 in 56 games. Castro hit 7 home runs, walked 32 times, and struck out 41 times.
There are two big differences here: the relative ages for the league (favouring Conger), and the walks (favouring Castro). I note that Castro also had surprisingly little home-run power for the California League. Castro was promoted to Corpus Christi in time to play 63 AA games in 2009.
Conger played as a 21 year old in the Texas League, spending the whole season (2009) at Arkansas. In 123 games, his triple slash was .294/.368/.423, and he managed 11 home runs, with 55 walks versus 68 strikeouts. Castro, as mentioned above, caught up with Conger in AA, as he spent the second half of his 22 year old season (again, 2009) in the Texas League, slashing .293/.362/.385, and hitting 3 home runs, managing 25 walks against 35 strikeouts.
Conger's walk rate jumped in AA (10.5% versus 4.4% in Hi-A), and he showed a little more power than Castro, which is an impressive feat after a challenging jump between levels. However, 2009 was also Castro's first full pro season, and he was only sharing catching duties at Stanford, so it is very possible that wore down for the second half of the season, having played more baseball in a shorter time frame than he was previously used to.
Conger spent his age 22 season (2010) mostly at Salt Lake, in the Pacific Coast League. He also got a cup of coffee (13 games) in the Majors that year. In 108 AAA games, he slashed .300/.385/.463, with 11 home runs, and 55 walks versus 58 strikeouts. Castro got a little more than a cup of coffee in 2010 - kind of the whole pot, really - as a 23 year old. He played 67 games in the majors after 57 games at AAA Oklahoma. His AAA-line was .265/.365/.355, with 4 home runs and 32 walks against 34 strikeouts.
Advantage: Conger. He had a superior OBP, hit for more power and was the younger prospect. Castro's line was in a smaller sample, because his time in AAA was cut short by virtue of his midseason promotion.
2011 saw Conger return to Salt Lake for 27 games, before being promoted for 59 games in the Bigs. He continued to mash at AAA: .300/.375/.490, with 5 home runs and 12 walks versus 18 strikeouts. Conger also hit .209/.282/.356 with 6HR in 197 plate appearances in the Majors. Castro sat 2011 out because of an ACL injury that required a knee reconstruction, sustained while running to first base during spring training.
2012 saw Conger log 67 games in AAA Salt Lake, where he hit .295/.347/.473. Castro was back in the Bigs in 2012 for 87 games (after a total of 7 games in the minors on rehab assignments, where he absolutely raked) where he managed a pretty decent line: .257/.334/.401 (OPS+ of 99).
In 2013, both players were at the same level again: the major leagues. Conger played in 92 games, with a .249/.310/.403 line, hitting 7 bombs, and walking 17 times versus 61 strikeouts. His OPS+ was 101. Castro had a breakout 2013, propping up a bad Houston offence while slashing .276/.350/.485 in 102 games, hitting 18 home runs, walking 50 times, and striking out 130. His OPS+ was a very robust 130. Astros fans will remember Castro's monster 2013 quite well - or at least they should - as it was one of the very best offensive years in Astros' catching history.
In 2014, both players were again in the Majors. Conger played in 80 games, with a .221/.293/.325 line, hitting 4 home runs, and walking 22 times versus 57 strikeouts, resulting in an OPS+ of 79. Castro was similarly bad: .222/.286/.366, 14 home runs, 34 walks, and a hefty 151 strikeouts. His OPS+ was 83.
So that brings us to where we are now. What is surprising to me is how similarly their offence has been tracking, aside from Castro's outstanding All Star performance in 2013. Conger appeared to be a slightly superior prospect in A+, AA and AAA, mostly as the younger player. Castro seems to have handled the transition to the Major Leagues better, but much of his offence was in a fabulous 2013. And as reader Terence pointed out, they were pretty damn similar in terms of offence in 2014.
We can't ignore defence. Conger seems like the better defender. In the Major Leagues, appearing in 223 games wearing the Tools of Ignorance, Conger has allowed 3 passed balls, been involved in 84 wild pitches, and has caught 22% of baserunners stealing. Castro, in 358 games where he has appeared at catcher, has been responsible for 36 passed balls, been associated with 138 wild pitches, and has gunned down 24% of baserunners. Castro's 11 passed balls led the league in 2014, and he has never ranked better than 4th in the league in passed balls. It seems passed balls are a problem.
Caveat: the defensive statistics are clearly deficient, and are affected by the quality of the pitchers and the different philosophies of the pitching staffs. But there is still some use in the raw numbers, just avoid reading too much into them.
So now it is time for some conclusions. And here is what I see. Conger has been the better prospect (statistically speaking), playing at most levels at a younger age, hitting for more power, and, in some seasons, getting on base slightly better. Castro may have adjusted to Major League pitching better, and has one great year under his belt, which can't be discounted, because it may mean that he will do it again. Conger will be cheaper - projected to make 1.1 million on MLBTR in his first round through arbitration, whereas Castro is projected to make 3.9 million. Conger has breakout potential, Castro has broken out already, which makes predicting a strong offensive year in 2015 not entirely stupid.
So as Terence said, it is very possible that Conger is the better offensive player, and he certainly seems to be the better defensive catcher. He is younger, has another year of control, and is likely to be cheaper in 2015. The resolution of this situation - if there is one - will be fascinating, and may not be resolved until the 2015 trade deadline. We will see what the Front Office have planned in the coming months.
PS: Happy Thanksgiving!!
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Yikes!!
Hank Conger, switch-hitting catcher, was traded from the Angels in exchange for Nick Tropeano and Carlos Perez earlier today. Perez had recently been added to the Astros 40-man - on the same day that Will Harris was claimed off waivers - so this represents a 2-1 swap in terms of the 40-man.
Pundits seem to think that the Angels have managed to fill a rotation need whilst trading their backup catcher (albeit one who received approximately 40% of the catcher plate-appearances for the Angels - second to Chris Iannetta) and getting their 2015 backup catcher back in Carlos Perez.
As for the Astros, my thoughts are that this trade will need to be evaluated at the end of the off-season. With Castro, Stassi and Corporan, along with Conger, all looking to catch - and none being consistently good enough for DH duties - then I would be stunned with one (more likely two) wasn't traded shortly.
The free-agent market is miserable for catchers this offseason, and therefore the Astros may be shopping Castro to whomever loses out on the Russell Martin sweepstakes. The Astros again deal from their perceived future-rotation logjam for a (possibly undervalued) major-league player whilst freeing up a 40-man slot. There are significant parallels with the Marisnick trade in this case as well.
This will make more sense when the next move happens, but I am picking that Castro and Corporan will be traded this offseason. This may, in turn, free up uniform-number-15 for Will Harris. Stay tuned.
Pundits seem to think that the Angels have managed to fill a rotation need whilst trading their backup catcher (albeit one who received approximately 40% of the catcher plate-appearances for the Angels - second to Chris Iannetta) and getting their 2015 backup catcher back in Carlos Perez.
As for the Astros, my thoughts are that this trade will need to be evaluated at the end of the off-season. With Castro, Stassi and Corporan, along with Conger, all looking to catch - and none being consistently good enough for DH duties - then I would be stunned with one (more likely two) wasn't traded shortly.
The free-agent market is miserable for catchers this offseason, and therefore the Astros may be shopping Castro to whomever loses out on the Russell Martin sweepstakes. The Astros again deal from their perceived future-rotation logjam for a (possibly undervalued) major-league player whilst freeing up a 40-man slot. There are significant parallels with the Marisnick trade in this case as well.
This will make more sense when the next move happens, but I am picking that Castro and Corporan will be traded this offseason. This may, in turn, free up uniform-number-15 for Will Harris. Stay tuned.
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