State of the Astros: Third Base

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Luis Valbuena

Valbuena has been one of the more polarizing players on the squad this year. He's currently leading the team in home runs with 19, which is already 3 more than his career high coming into the season. He's also carrying an absurdly low BABIP at .176 en route to a .195 average, despite being one of the top hitters in "hard-hit contact" this season. While some of those hard hit balls are carrying over the wall and, thus, don't factor into his BABIP you could make a case that he has been very unlucky on the balls he's kept inside the fence. If you plugged his career .258 BABIP (which is also low but may be his true talent level for balls in play) into this year's numbers he'd be hitting .249, same as last season. All that said, he's been an essentially league average bat when looking at his 99 wRC+. But what an extremely unusual way to get there. He's been worth .4 WAR so far and the projections suggest he'll add another 1 WAR in the second half. (Note: I started writing this a couple days ago, so some stats may be slightly different now.)

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .200-.230
OBP - .290-.310
SLG - .400-.440

Backup - Jed Lowrie ? (Injured)

Given that Correa has pretty much established himself as not only the shortstop of the future, but also of the present, I'm expecting Lowrie to see a significant portion of his playing time at third base upon his return from injury. He could very well end up replacing Valbuena as the starter, as well. Barring a trade, whoever isn't the starting 3B would probably end up being a utility guy, where either figures to be an upgrade over Marwin Gonzalez and/or Villar. I won't go into Lowrie's numbers, as we just did that in the last installment

Prospect - Colin Moran

Moran, who was a 1st round draft pick by the Marlins in 2013 before coming to the Astros in the Cosart trade, is currently in Corpus Christi. He's considered a line drive contact hitter with below average power and an adequate glove at third. He was a top 100 prospect in 2014 but, despite finishing the year hitting .296 between A+ and AA ball, his lack of power development seems to have taken him off some people's radar.

Prospect - Matt Duffy

Duffy has, as far as I know, never shown up on a prospect list. He was a 20th round pick in 2011 but has put up decent numbers as he's steadily climbed the ranks. In a little over a full season at AAA he's hitting .280 with 20 HRs. I don't think he'll ever see much playing time in Houston, barring injury or some other event that leaves the Astros no choice. He's been playing some at 1B, though, which could give him a little extra value.

Prospect - JD Davis

Davis was the Astros 3rd round pick in 2014. He's currently in Lancaster where, not surprisingly, his power has been serving him well. He could move quickly but at this point he's firmly behind Moran in the pecking order. A noticeable increase in Davis' strikeout rate this year could portend a potential issue going forward, but so far it hasn't slowed him down much.

Summary

With either Valbuena or Lowrie down the stretch I'd grade the third base situation right now as a C+ to B- though where those two are performance-wise in the second half is difficult to predict right now. I'm also not overwhelmed by the prospects working their way up, though I think at least one of them should be at least an average big leaguer in the near to mid future. 

State of the Astros: Shortstop

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Jed Lowrie (Injured)

Back for his second stint with Houston, Jed continues to keep up spinning around the roller coaster of promise and disappointment. He carried the offense for the first three or so weeks then predictably hit the DL for a few months. He's due back some time around the All Star break, but hand and wrist injuries can be tough to come back from while maintaining pre-injury levels of production. Will we get back the Jed that can be a top offensive SS, or will we get something more similar to his last year with Oakland? And will he even be our starting SS anymore? He already has about 1 WAR in the back, so even with his injury he'll probably get to 2 WAR as long as he gets regular playing time. Whether that's at shortstop, third base, or in a utility role will be something to watch in the second half.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .250-.290
OBP - .320-.350
SLG - .370-.430

Backup - Marwin Gonzalez

Marwin currently has the most games played of those who have played short for Houston this year, but he's really a utility player. Though his total production isn't too far off from his career numbers, he's been doing it a bit differently this year. His walk rate has plummeted from acceptable to abysmal at just .9% but his power has been a bit up to balance that out some. He's not cut out to be an everyday player, but he has value in being able to handle multiple positions adequately and providing roster flexibility. He's on pace to be essentially replacement level, as usual.

Reasonable end of season projections

AVG - .230-.260

OBP - .250-.300

SLG - .340-.400

Backup - Jonathan Villar

Villar's been getting a little more playing time than Marwin lately and he's been about what we expected; flashes of amazing potential followed by extremely frustrating mental lapses. He's actually hitting fairly well for a shortstop, helping himself by significantly reducing his strikeout rate so far. Prior to Lowrie's injury the organization was trying to give him some reps both around the infield and in the outfield, so perhaps he could be a more dynamic yet erratic version of Marwin. Ultimately either Gonzalez or Villar won't stay with the club for the long-term, so hopefully one of them takes advantage of this competition.

Reasonable end of season projections

AVG - .220-.270

OBP - .280-.320

SLG - .340-.370

Prospect - Carlos Correa

This is the guy that we all know (little about how he'll perform in the big leagues) and love (until he has his first struggles and we all say he's not ready yet). But in all seriousness, Correa has just about closed the book on his minor league career by forcing Houston's hand with his performance. He's slowed a bit since being promoted to Fresno, but there's no way he carries his .246 BABIP for long and his BB and K rates show he's not over-matched. I wouldn't be shocked if the best prospect in the Astros organization, if not all of baseball, has spent his last full month in the minors. You never know exactly how a player will transition to the big leagues, but Correa's strongest tool may be his makeup so even if he stumbles out of the gate I don't expect him to be overwhelmed. He'll likely get a firm grip on the starting shortstop job this summer.

Prospect - Nolan Fontana

Fontana doesn't have the high ceiling of Correa, but he's the type of prospect that could be described as having a high floor. His calling card is his plate discipline, as his walk rates hover around an astounding 20%. He doesn't have a lot of power and doesn't hit for a high average, but it's rare for a player to get on base over 40% of the time, even in the minors. He's solid in the field, though not spectacular, and with Correa clearly the SS of the future he's been seeing time at 2B the last couple years.

Prospect - Joan Mauricio

Mauricio was one of Houston's international free agent signings last year and thus hasn't seen much time in organized ball. MLB.com ranks him as Houston's #30 prospect, though, and describes him as an excellent fielder with raw power at the plate. He's very, very far away but he may be a name to keep tabs on over the next few years.

Summary

It's hard to put a firm grade on this position when so much hinges on a 20 year old with less than 40 games above A ball. Marwin and Villar would get a C-, Lowrie would get a C+/B (depending on his return from injury), and Correa could be anywhere from a C to an A+ this year. Long term, though, let's go with an A assuming Correa is even 80% of what we expect.

State of the Astros: Second Base

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Jose Altuve

At this point in his career Altuve has a pretty good track record of the type of player he is and he's living up to that so far this season, though with a few small tweaks. Last season Altuve solidified himself as a hitting machine by setting the Astros record for hits in a season (225) on his way to being the first Astro to lead the league in batting average. A small recent slump has seen his average dip below .300, but upticks in walk rate and a bit of an increase in pop have him still among the top five offensive second basemen in the American League. The projections expect him to be more or less the same player for the rest of the season, right in line with his career averages. All he does is hit and all he'll continue to do is hit. He should check in around 4 WAR on the year and his team-friendly contract means he'll continue to be an extremely valuable part of the club for the foreseeable future.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .290-.310
OBP - .340-.350
SLG - .400-.430

Backup

We'll probably see a combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar here for the few days off Altuve takes, though a Carlos Correa call-up could make things interesting, possibly seeing one of those two leave the team and/or Luis Valbuena or Jed Lowrie take over as a super-utility type. Given that Altuve only missed four games last year and just one so far this year we probably don't need to spend much time thinking about that, though.

Prospect - Tony Kemp

You could almost call Kemp "Jose Altuve, Jr." as he's another short second baseman whose contact ability and speed lead the way, though Kemp seems to be a little more selective at the plate. Chances are you won't see him jumping to make contact on a fastball over his head. He's been given a little time in the outfield in Corpus this year, though, to try to get him out from under Altuve's shadow and clear a path for him to to majors. Beyond Kemp the Astros have a number of decent shortstop prospects, any one or two of which could slide to second depending on the organization's needs, as we'll see in my next post.

Summary

As long as Altuve is in Houston we shouldn't have to worry about the second base situation. He's one of the premier players in the league at this position and he's still just 25 years old. I'd say the grade here is a solid A for Altuve.

State of the Astros: First Base

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Chris Carter

Carter is doing his annual act of starting off so slowly that people are calling for him to be released/traded/drawn and quartered. His walk rate is back up over 12%, but his strikeouts are back up to his 2013 rate, when he whiffed 212 times. Of course, that's kinda what Carter does the first couple months of every season. His April/May OPS for his career is about 75 points lower than his overall career average, so here's hoping he's just a chronic slow starter. The projections have him putting together about a .750 OPS for the rest of the season, though his career rates for the last four months would put him around an .800 OPS going forward. One potential area of hope is that his BABIP is currently just .232. Carter historically carries a lower than average BABIP, but a bump up to .270 or .280 wouldn't be shocking. This would still only put him around a 1 WAR player and he's already in his arbitration years. While his power means he's not worthless, his one-trick-pony act and escalating salary probably mean his tenure with Houston will soon draw to a close.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .180-.220
OBP - .280-.320
SLG - .380-.440

Backup

There really isn't a backup 1B. As with most teams, spare playing time goes to a utility player or outfielder. In this case, Marwin Gonzalez seems to be the main guy but Preston Tucker and Evan Gattis are also options. We'll talk more about them when we get to their primary positions, though.

Prospect - Jon Singleton

Singleton played his way to the majors (helped by signing a long-term, team friendly deal) last season but couldn't capitalize on his chance to secure the position long term. He's back in Fresno and improving upon his numbers in AAA last year. His strikeouts are a bit down (under 20%) and his power is up. That said, after last season's stint with Houston, it's hard to know what he'll do when given another shot. If he keeps hitting in Fresno we'll soon find out.

Prospect - A.J. Reed

Reed has the potential to be an outstanding power hitter. Prior to the draft last year he led all college hitters with 23 home runs, then added another 12 in his first taste of professional baseball. 2015 has seen him pick right back up again as he's already swatted 11 in Lancaster. Since Corpus 1B Telvin Nash was just released, Reed will likely be promoted soon. As a polished college bat, there's a good chance he could move quickly through the system and, if Singleton can't establish himself quickly, could hit his way into Houston in a couple years.

Summary

The only thing we know for sure for the Astros at first base is that whoever is there for the rest of the year will hit home runs. Beyond that it remains to be seen if Carter will heat up and/or get traded or if Singleton will take over and fulfill his potential or if he'll be a bust. So many questions. Currently I'll grade this first base situation as a D+ due to the immense uncertainty, but this could easily be a B+ or even an A if someone puts it together. Who knows.

State of the Astros: Catcher

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Jason Castro

Castro is starting to make people think that his 2013 All-Star year may have been his career year, even though he's still just 27. Despite his batting average dropping from even last season's, he's actually made some improvements offensively. His walk rate is up about 2% while he's dramatically cut down on his strikeouts, cutting about 7.5% from last year. He's regained some of his pop and his .237 BABIP this year indicates his batting average could see a rebound. He's even seen a good bump in his caught stealing rate, to the point where he's been above average in 2015. Looking at the most widely used projection systems for the rest of the season Castro is trending towards being a 2-3 WAR player this year. That would make him a middle of the pack starting catcher.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .215-.240
OBP - .285-.315
SLG - .380-.410

Backup - Hank Conger

The trade for Conger still looks like a bit of a head scratcher. We all heard about his pitch framing prowess, but with his limited playing time so far I can't help but wonder how much good that's doing for the club. When you factor in that the Astros gave up Nick Tropeano, a young starter with potential who's turned in one strong start for the Angels this year, and Carlos Perez, a backup catcher who has held his own in the majors so far with almost as much playing time this year as Conger, this one is looking like a needless trade. As far as his performance, 41 plate appearances isn't enough to give us an indication of how he'll perform over a season. His batting average is abysmal, but he's sporting a nearly 20% walk rate and two of his three hits have been home runs, so he's actually close to league average offensively in an extremely small sample size. His .176 BABIP indicates his average will come up, but his track record says his walk rate will come way down so his OBP probably is about right. Projections put him at a .5-1 WAR player by the end of the season, which is a small return for the above mentioned prospects.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .180-.230 (wide range due to small sample size so far)
OBP - .295-.330
SLG - .345-.375

Prospect - Max Stassi

We've heard for a couple years now that the front office thinks of Stassi as the "Catcher of the Future". Barring injury, I don't think he'll get any meaningful playing time until possibly September. Of course, if the Astros are still in the playoff hunt at that point in the year, even that may not happen. He's struggled quite a bit in AAA, especially so far this year, so the bloom may be off the rose with Max. So far this year he's striking out at a pace that would make Chris Carter proud. He's shown an ability to get hot fast in the past, albeit at AA, so I don't think it's quite time to give up on him yet, but this season is pivotal for him. But we'll always have the memory of him getting his first major league RBI by catching a pitch with his teeth.

Prospect - Jacob Nottingham

Nottingham has been creeping up the bottom of the Astros prospect lists the last couple seasons. He's expected to develop into a power hitter, though there's a little concern he may not stick behind the plate. After mixed results the last couple years with the Gulf Coast squad and in Greeneville, Nottingham is off to a strong start with Quad Cities, the best minor league team in baseball so far this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and his power has been showing up more frequently, as he's currently sporting a .250 ISO, including six homers in 121 plate appearances. He's still a few years away, but behind Stassi he's the biggest hope at catcher down on the farm.

Prospect - Tyler Heineman

Heineman isn't appearing on many prospect lists, but this switch hitting catcher shouldn't be forgotten. In his second season at Corpus he's putting together a solid season. He doesn't look like a power guy, but he's been showing a solid ability to handle the strike zone with a solid walk rate and a very good strikeout rate (just 6.3% so far this year, 12 % last year). Defensively, he has a strong 43% caught stealing rate so far. He's not the kind of prospect you can dream on, but he could turn into a solid player.

Summary

Depending on the rest of Stassi's season, it looks like Castro is still the catcher of the next few seasons. He'll get more expensive as he works his way through his arbitration years, probably ending up around $8-10 million per season. If he can continue to produce between 2 and 3 WAR per year, that's about right. Conger is just as much of question mark as he was at the beginning of the year. Stassi may be playing his way out of his prospect status and Luhnow's Christmas card list and Nottingham is too far away to expect anything soon. I'd grade the Astros overall catcher situation as a C+.