So let's try to keep a running list of whom is and isn't voting for Jeff Bagwell for the Hall of Fame in 2012, shall we? And, many thanks to those of you sending in the articles you find! Special note: Thanks to Citizen Bill for pointing out this link, aggregating all ballots.
(Last update: Jan 2 - 7:00 AM)
Quick Tally: 63 ballots "counted"
38 ballots "Yes"
25 ballots "No"
Total ballot percentage: 60.3%
Total ballot percentage needed: 75%
Bagwell's in
Peter Abraham, Phil Arvia, Andrew Baggarly, Peter Botte, Steve Buckley, Ron Chimelis, Tim Cowlishaw, Ken Davidoff, Tony DiMarco, John Erardi, Jeff Fletcher, Peter Gammons, Teddy Greenstein, Richard Griffin, Mike Imren, Phil Jackman, Tim Kawakami, Bob Klapisch, Dave Krieger, Thom Loverro, Jack McCaffery, Sean McClelland, John McGrath, Bruce Miles, Jim Molony, Jose de Jesus Ortiz, Joe Posnanski, Tracy Ringolsby, Phil Rogers, Ken Rosenthal, Chaz Scoggins, Mike Silverman, Bob Smizik, Larry Stone, T.R. Sullivan, John Tomase, Mike Vaccaro, David Wilhelm
Bagwell's out
Mel Antonen, Barry Bloom, Bob Brookover, Garry Brown, Tom Dienhart, Chris Elsberry, Mark Gonzales, Evan Grant, Scot Gregor, Philip Hersh, John Heyman (allegedly), Jeff Jacobs, Fred Klein, Dave Lariviere, Ron Kroichick, Fred Mitchell, Mike Nadel, Bob Nightengale, Mike Puma, Mike Purdy, Barry Rozner, Jeff Schultz, Tom Singer, Paul Sullivan, Dave Van Dyck,
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Monday, January 2, 2012
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Dive into the inner workings of Phil Rogers' mind, won't you?
The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers has a new column (I know it links back to the Boston Herald, but it's the right article) in which he has a crisis. His crisis? He doesn't know what to do, and needs the Hall of Fame to bail him out of his crisis. Here's an annotated guide to the inner thoughts of Phil Rogers.
One year. One measly year.
That’s all the time left before the three-player crash that proves once and for all how broken the Hall of Fame voting process has become.
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa are due on the Hall ballot for the first time next December.
Oh noes! Three of the greatest players of our generation are going to come up for judgment by writers just like me. Not now, though, in a year. So let's hurry this crisis up by creating one.
Barring direction from the Hall of Fame’s board of directors, 580-plus voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America again will be left to determine how to handle the legacies of players implicated in the use of performance-enhancing drugs.
The BBWAA again will be left to determine how to handle the legacies of players, just like they have since 1936. Those lucky Base Ball Writers of yore never had to deal with players of ill repute. Lucky sonsaguns. If only the non-profit organization who keeps the plaques clean could provide some sort of moral compass!
Was it OK to get some chemical help because so many players were doing it? Or does being a steroid guy disqualify you from membership, as voters are asked to consider the "integrity, sportsmanship, character" of candidates?
Is it okay for me to take an Excedrin? Can my over-inflated sense of importance and ego handle the anti-inflammatories? Am I going to die?
My take on the brokenness of the process is this: 581 voters, 581 standards.
How dare Indvidualism overrun this sacred process! You know what we need? RIGHT NOW? The Hall of Fame to provide a guidebook that can be inserted into our brains to tell us what to do! While they're at it, how about a PDF of feelings? Someone get me a flow-chart. STAT.
It’s ridiculous to expect me and the other 580 who voted a year ago to sort this out. Many of my brethren disagree, but we hardly have the information we need for these calls. We don’t know who did and who did not use steroids, and we never will.
We have only dedicated our lives to the covering of Base Ball, and have to be an active member of the BBWAA for ten years to even get a paper ballot asking us to put a check beside our own moral code. If only we could get some sort of omnipotence pill that would allow us to see inside the hearts, minds, and history of each player we have to choose whether or not to bestow an honor upon...Hall of Fame, you need to get on that, too. It's ridiculous to think that we cannot be omnipotent, and be hoodwinked by the very players we have spent our lives covering.
All we know is which guys have been implicated publicly, through positive tests (Manny Ramirez and Rafael Palmeiro), the Mitchell Report (Clemens) and reporting (Bonds, Mark McGwire). Then there are guys like Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz and Sosa, who are reported to have tested positive in 2003 survey testing, which was done under a since-violated guarantee of anonymity.
All we know is what Major League Baseball and a former senator has been able to uncover through gradually stronger testing. And for those other guys, we had to rely on snitches for us to know and pass crushing judgment on. That's not enough information. We need more. Get on that, Hall of Fame.
The whole thing is beyond a slippery slope. It’s an icy crevasse.
A slick sinkhole. A kickball field full of loose gravel for us to fall and skin our knees. A mineshaft of motor oil. Nobody will live. We will all die because of this. Help us, Hall of Fame, avoid these pitfalls.
The one thing that is clear is that players with any link to performance-enhancing drugs aren’t currently welcome in Cooperstown. McGwire, the test case, has been on the ballot five years, never has received more than 23.7 percent of the vote and received 13 fewer votes in 2011 than in 2010.
Here's what is clear: my compatriots in Base Ball, whom I have just acknowledged do not have enough information to pass judgment, have passed judgment. And Mark McGwire was found wanting by three-quarters of them. Am I saying that Mark McGwire should be in, because the Base Ball Writers aren't smart enough? Perhaps.
While Jeff Bagwell never was linked to steroid use, he improved his body taking androstenedione when it was sold off the shelves at GNC and told ESPN in 2010 that he had "no problem" with a player juicing up.
Jeff Bagwell had the help of GNC, those conniving bastards. It's a place so reprehensible that there are 4800 of these brothels of Base Ball, for players to get their wicks wet in the hazards of making themselves better over the counter. How dare he speak his mind to ESPN? What kind of world do we live in where you can't be held accountable for your mother-f***ing opinions? F*** your opinions, says this Base Ball writer.
It’s impossible to know if that 42 percent rating is a reflection on his play - he’s a Hall of Famer in my book - or if he’s considered a steroid user, even if his only real tie is to androstenedione when it was sold over the counter.
He only got a hit in 29.7% of his at-bats throughout his career. Is there a correlation between this number and 42? Jackie Robinson wore 42. Did he take steroids? WE DON'T KNOW. Vote him out.
My interpretation says guys who took advantage of baseball’s lack of testing to do as they pleased - Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Clemens, Rodriguez and Palmeiro, among others - disqualified themselves for the Hall because integrity is among the listed factors for voting. But I need some evidence. I don’t believe I can eliminate every brawny player on suspicion alone.
I think that, if there wasn't a good system in place, and someone was able to beat that system without breaking any laws whatsoever, he clearly has no integrity. I'm suspicious. But I can't be suspicious. I need cold, hard facts to tell me if someone was unduly strong. Get on that, Hall of Fame.
If the New York Times had not reported Sosa was on the list of 104 players testing positive in 2003, I would have felt I had to vote for him even though he seemed as complicit as Bonds and McGwire. There has to be some standard of fairness, even if it allows a good cheat to beat the system.
If a reporter - maybe even a Writer of Base Ball - had not published what was supposed to be an anonymous test, I would not be in this crisis. There has to be some standard of fairness, as long as it doesn't apply to my profession.
Rather than reward some cheaters and sanction others, you can say - as ESPN’s Buster Olney does - players should be judged only by what they have done on the field. But I can’t get there in my thinking when voting rules cite "integrity, sportsmanship, character ..."
See how my ellipses cause me confusion, consternation, and crisis...? I am hamstrung by arbitrary rules. Buster Olney, that sanctimonious bastard, ignores these rules because he does not have a conscience, and because he freely admits that he is not omnipotent.
Jane Forbes Clark, chairman of the Hall’s board, needs to take some ownership of the issue. The BBWAA serves at the Hall’s discretion. There has been discussion at recent BBWAA meetings about seeking clarification from the Hall, but a vote asking for help was rejected in 2010. That doesn’t mean voters don’t need help; it means many aren’t humble enough to ask for it.
The chairman of the board of the Hall of Fame needs to address this. See, at one point, we all had a vote - similar to the way we have a vote on who should get into the Hall of Fame - on whether or not we should ask for some clarification. But we couldn't come to an agreement on whether or not to ask for help from a non-profit organization. This clearly means that we aren't capable of making decisions. Except for Buster Olney, that sanctimonious bastard. Help us Hall of Fame, if we ask for it. But we won't, for we are too arrogant.
Jeff Idelson, president of the Hall, cites the BBWAA’s stance in explaining why the Hall hasn’t entered the discussion. "The Hall of Fame has always been an open book with the BBWAA," Idelson said. "Always willing to listen to the concerns the BBWAA has, always willing to discuss them. At this point in time, we have great faith in the organization to continue voting with the integrity it has since 1936."
Having been rebuffed by Jane Forbes Clark's unwillingness to recognize that we need help but won't ask for it, we turned to the Hall of Fame's president who said that, since we have been doing this every year for 75 years, they trust us. This is clearly a mistake. Why won't Idelson override our unwillingness to ask for help? Because of 75 years of tradition and history? When does that play a factor in Base Ball?
Trouble is, it’s not the voters’ integrity that is in question. It’s the perceived integrity of the candidates, and everyone has a different take on that. This is the last chance for the Hall to get in front of the argument, and there’s no indication it feels the need.
How dare you read between the lines and think that it's OUR INTEGRITY in question? We're the ones who are making arbitrary judgments on other people's character here. And until you have covered Base Ball for a print newspaper, you are not allowed to do so. Why won't the Hall of Fame give us a color wheel where we can be told what to think? If the Hall of Fame won't tell me what to do, how am I supposed to do it?
One year. One measly year.
That’s all the time left before the three-player crash that proves once and for all how broken the Hall of Fame voting process has become.
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa are due on the Hall ballot for the first time next December.
Oh noes! Three of the greatest players of our generation are going to come up for judgment by writers just like me. Not now, though, in a year. So let's hurry this crisis up by creating one.
Barring direction from the Hall of Fame’s board of directors, 580-plus voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America again will be left to determine how to handle the legacies of players implicated in the use of performance-enhancing drugs.
The BBWAA again will be left to determine how to handle the legacies of players, just like they have since 1936. Those lucky Base Ball Writers of yore never had to deal with players of ill repute. Lucky sonsaguns. If only the non-profit organization who keeps the plaques clean could provide some sort of moral compass!
Was it OK to get some chemical help because so many players were doing it? Or does being a steroid guy disqualify you from membership, as voters are asked to consider the "integrity, sportsmanship, character" of candidates?
Is it okay for me to take an Excedrin? Can my over-inflated sense of importance and ego handle the anti-inflammatories? Am I going to die?
My take on the brokenness of the process is this: 581 voters, 581 standards.
How dare Indvidualism overrun this sacred process! You know what we need? RIGHT NOW? The Hall of Fame to provide a guidebook that can be inserted into our brains to tell us what to do! While they're at it, how about a PDF of feelings? Someone get me a flow-chart. STAT.
It’s ridiculous to expect me and the other 580 who voted a year ago to sort this out. Many of my brethren disagree, but we hardly have the information we need for these calls. We don’t know who did and who did not use steroids, and we never will.
We have only dedicated our lives to the covering of Base Ball, and have to be an active member of the BBWAA for ten years to even get a paper ballot asking us to put a check beside our own moral code. If only we could get some sort of omnipotence pill that would allow us to see inside the hearts, minds, and history of each player we have to choose whether or not to bestow an honor upon...Hall of Fame, you need to get on that, too. It's ridiculous to think that we cannot be omnipotent, and be hoodwinked by the very players we have spent our lives covering.
All we know is which guys have been implicated publicly, through positive tests (Manny Ramirez and Rafael Palmeiro), the Mitchell Report (Clemens) and reporting (Bonds, Mark McGwire). Then there are guys like Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz and Sosa, who are reported to have tested positive in 2003 survey testing, which was done under a since-violated guarantee of anonymity.
All we know is what Major League Baseball and a former senator has been able to uncover through gradually stronger testing. And for those other guys, we had to rely on snitches for us to know and pass crushing judgment on. That's not enough information. We need more. Get on that, Hall of Fame.
The whole thing is beyond a slippery slope. It’s an icy crevasse.
A slick sinkhole. A kickball field full of loose gravel for us to fall and skin our knees. A mineshaft of motor oil. Nobody will live. We will all die because of this. Help us, Hall of Fame, avoid these pitfalls.
The one thing that is clear is that players with any link to performance-enhancing drugs aren’t currently welcome in Cooperstown. McGwire, the test case, has been on the ballot five years, never has received more than 23.7 percent of the vote and received 13 fewer votes in 2011 than in 2010.
Here's what is clear: my compatriots in Base Ball, whom I have just acknowledged do not have enough information to pass judgment, have passed judgment. And Mark McGwire was found wanting by three-quarters of them. Am I saying that Mark McGwire should be in, because the Base Ball Writers aren't smart enough? Perhaps.
While Jeff Bagwell never was linked to steroid use, he improved his body taking androstenedione when it was sold off the shelves at GNC and told ESPN in 2010 that he had "no problem" with a player juicing up.
Jeff Bagwell had the help of GNC, those conniving bastards. It's a place so reprehensible that there are 4800 of these brothels of Base Ball, for players to get their wicks wet in the hazards of making themselves better over the counter. How dare he speak his mind to ESPN? What kind of world do we live in where you can't be held accountable for your mother-f***ing opinions? F*** your opinions, says this Base Ball writer.
It’s impossible to know if that 42 percent rating is a reflection on his play - he’s a Hall of Famer in my book - or if he’s considered a steroid user, even if his only real tie is to androstenedione when it was sold over the counter.
He only got a hit in 29.7% of his at-bats throughout his career. Is there a correlation between this number and 42? Jackie Robinson wore 42. Did he take steroids? WE DON'T KNOW. Vote him out.
My interpretation says guys who took advantage of baseball’s lack of testing to do as they pleased - Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Clemens, Rodriguez and Palmeiro, among others - disqualified themselves for the Hall because integrity is among the listed factors for voting. But I need some evidence. I don’t believe I can eliminate every brawny player on suspicion alone.
I think that, if there wasn't a good system in place, and someone was able to beat that system without breaking any laws whatsoever, he clearly has no integrity. I'm suspicious. But I can't be suspicious. I need cold, hard facts to tell me if someone was unduly strong. Get on that, Hall of Fame.
If the New York Times had not reported Sosa was on the list of 104 players testing positive in 2003, I would have felt I had to vote for him even though he seemed as complicit as Bonds and McGwire. There has to be some standard of fairness, even if it allows a good cheat to beat the system.
If a reporter - maybe even a Writer of Base Ball - had not published what was supposed to be an anonymous test, I would not be in this crisis. There has to be some standard of fairness, as long as it doesn't apply to my profession.
Rather than reward some cheaters and sanction others, you can say - as ESPN’s Buster Olney does - players should be judged only by what they have done on the field. But I can’t get there in my thinking when voting rules cite "integrity, sportsmanship, character ..."
See how my ellipses cause me confusion, consternation, and crisis...? I am hamstrung by arbitrary rules. Buster Olney, that sanctimonious bastard, ignores these rules because he does not have a conscience, and because he freely admits that he is not omnipotent.
Jane Forbes Clark, chairman of the Hall’s board, needs to take some ownership of the issue. The BBWAA serves at the Hall’s discretion. There has been discussion at recent BBWAA meetings about seeking clarification from the Hall, but a vote asking for help was rejected in 2010. That doesn’t mean voters don’t need help; it means many aren’t humble enough to ask for it.
The chairman of the board of the Hall of Fame needs to address this. See, at one point, we all had a vote - similar to the way we have a vote on who should get into the Hall of Fame - on whether or not we should ask for some clarification. But we couldn't come to an agreement on whether or not to ask for help from a non-profit organization. This clearly means that we aren't capable of making decisions. Except for Buster Olney, that sanctimonious bastard. Help us Hall of Fame, if we ask for it. But we won't, for we are too arrogant.
Jeff Idelson, president of the Hall, cites the BBWAA’s stance in explaining why the Hall hasn’t entered the discussion. "The Hall of Fame has always been an open book with the BBWAA," Idelson said. "Always willing to listen to the concerns the BBWAA has, always willing to discuss them. At this point in time, we have great faith in the organization to continue voting with the integrity it has since 1936."
Having been rebuffed by Jane Forbes Clark's unwillingness to recognize that we need help but won't ask for it, we turned to the Hall of Fame's president who said that, since we have been doing this every year for 75 years, they trust us. This is clearly a mistake. Why won't Idelson override our unwillingness to ask for help? Because of 75 years of tradition and history? When does that play a factor in Base Ball?
Trouble is, it’s not the voters’ integrity that is in question. It’s the perceived integrity of the candidates, and everyone has a different take on that. This is the last chance for the Hall to get in front of the argument, and there’s no indication it feels the need.
How dare you read between the lines and think that it's OUR INTEGRITY in question? We're the ones who are making arbitrary judgments on other people's character here. And until you have covered Base Ball for a print newspaper, you are not allowed to do so. Why won't the Hall of Fame give us a color wheel where we can be told what to think? If the Hall of Fame won't tell me what to do, how am I supposed to do it?
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Astros interview Keith Law
Via MLBTR, we find this piece from Rosenthal/Morosi that the Astros have interviewed Keith Law for "a number of front-office roles" including that of scouting director.
The piece is quick to note that no offer has been made, as of yet.
Those of you who follow Law on Twitter can get excited that, should this take place, the Astros' farm system will be the best-fed, most well-read system in baseball.
The piece is quick to note that no offer has been made, as of yet.
Those of you who follow Law on Twitter can get excited that, should this take place, the Astros' farm system will be the best-fed, most well-read system in baseball.
The Perils of Transparency
The Hall of Fame voting members of the Base Ball Writers Association of America have until December 31 to turn in their ballots containing up to, but not exceeding, ten names for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in July 2012. In last year's election, there were 539 voting members (voting members must have covered baseball for ten years prior to their first vote).
We're keeping a tally of the ballots that are published, and how they apply to our very own Jeff Bagwell. At present, Bagwell is appearing on just over 76% of the ballots that we've been able to dig up (thanks, Google) - which would be a 35% jump should that hold up. But I do not expect it to hold up.
One of the things that fans want from writers is transparency. Coaches polls in college football, congressional votes, we want to know why everyone thinks what they think - and it works out great, as long as they agree with our lines of thinking.
The week between Christmas and New Year used to be a slam-dunk, "This-is-how-I-voted" cherry pick column. But I'm seeing less of them this year, and I think that's because if a writer didn't vote for Bagwell, they're going to get called out on it.
Hardball Talk has been linking to various ballots over the course of the past couple of weeks, and is either praising Ken Davidoff's sanity, or questioning Barry Bloom's.
(To be fair, Barry Bloom's ballot is fairly ridiculous - voting for Steve Garvey, and not Bagwell). Hell, I've called a prominent Hartford journalist "lazy", because he wants to wait on voting for Bagwell.
There's simply no motivation for the baseball writers to be transparent, because if they have an opinion that runs contrary to what is accepted as "general knowledge," they're going to catch hell - from the comments section of their site, from Twitter, and from blogs. It was quite entertaining to see Barry Bloom's Twitter feed fill up with our friends' comments asking him the equivalent of whether he had lost a bet.
If I'm a writer, and I don't think that Player X belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I'm social- and alternative- media savvy, and I see that basically everybody else does think that Player X belongs in the Hall of Fame, there are three options:
1) Cave, vote them in, write about it.
2) Not vote for them, write about it, and get my credibility shredded in a variety of ways.
3) Do what I want, but not tell anyone how I voted.
The only way that a writer can exercise his vote and come out on the other side with their credibility (and personal sense of morality) intact is Option #3, which is obviously the least transparent, but also the most attractive option for the writer - just not for us.
Bagwell has become the lightning rod for the sane/insane Hall of Fame Voter. Vote for Bagwell, and you're a Good Writer. Don't vote for Bagwell, and you're Incapable of Complex Thought - at worst, you're Joe McCarthy. Most of the time, if the writer provides a reason for why they don't think Bagwell is a Hall of Famer (that doesn't include the "There's no proof, but I think he took steroids" argument), they may be off the hook from criticism and general hand-wringing. But look at the reaction to Barry Bloom's column, and that's not necessarily the case.
In the present chapter of the information era, if you write it, someone's going to find it. Back in June, I called Fort Worth Star-Telegram columnist Gil LeBreton a non-sensical idiot. He found it, commented, and I caved like a little bitch. It did not feel good. So no, I do not expect Jeff Bagwell to get elected, despite his receiving 76% of the ballots we've found, because there are hundreds of writers who don't think Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer, and it's just not worth it for them to try to explain why.
We're keeping a tally of the ballots that are published, and how they apply to our very own Jeff Bagwell. At present, Bagwell is appearing on just over 76% of the ballots that we've been able to dig up (thanks, Google) - which would be a 35% jump should that hold up. But I do not expect it to hold up.
One of the things that fans want from writers is transparency. Coaches polls in college football, congressional votes, we want to know why everyone thinks what they think - and it works out great, as long as they agree with our lines of thinking.
The week between Christmas and New Year used to be a slam-dunk, "This-is-how-I-voted" cherry pick column. But I'm seeing less of them this year, and I think that's because if a writer didn't vote for Bagwell, they're going to get called out on it.
Hardball Talk has been linking to various ballots over the course of the past couple of weeks, and is either praising Ken Davidoff's sanity, or questioning Barry Bloom's.
(To be fair, Barry Bloom's ballot is fairly ridiculous - voting for Steve Garvey, and not Bagwell). Hell, I've called a prominent Hartford journalist "lazy", because he wants to wait on voting for Bagwell.
There's simply no motivation for the baseball writers to be transparent, because if they have an opinion that runs contrary to what is accepted as "general knowledge," they're going to catch hell - from the comments section of their site, from Twitter, and from blogs. It was quite entertaining to see Barry Bloom's Twitter feed fill up with our friends' comments asking him the equivalent of whether he had lost a bet.
If I'm a writer, and I don't think that Player X belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I'm social- and alternative- media savvy, and I see that basically everybody else does think that Player X belongs in the Hall of Fame, there are three options:
1) Cave, vote them in, write about it.
2) Not vote for them, write about it, and get my credibility shredded in a variety of ways.
3) Do what I want, but not tell anyone how I voted.
The only way that a writer can exercise his vote and come out on the other side with their credibility (and personal sense of morality) intact is Option #3, which is obviously the least transparent, but also the most attractive option for the writer - just not for us.
Bagwell has become the lightning rod for the sane/insane Hall of Fame Voter. Vote for Bagwell, and you're a Good Writer. Don't vote for Bagwell, and you're Incapable of Complex Thought - at worst, you're Joe McCarthy. Most of the time, if the writer provides a reason for why they don't think Bagwell is a Hall of Famer (that doesn't include the "There's no proof, but I think he took steroids" argument), they may be off the hook from criticism and general hand-wringing. But look at the reaction to Barry Bloom's column, and that's not necessarily the case.
In the present chapter of the information era, if you write it, someone's going to find it. Back in June, I called Fort Worth Star-Telegram columnist Gil LeBreton a non-sensical idiot. He found it, commented, and I caved like a little bitch. It did not feel good. So no, I do not expect Jeff Bagwell to get elected, despite his receiving 76% of the ballots we've found, because there are hundreds of writers who don't think Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer, and it's just not worth it for them to try to explain why.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Moving David Carpenter from catcher to pitcher was Luhnow's idea
One of the closer candidates who will be getting some attention in Spring Training is David Carpenter, whom the Astros received in a trade for Pedro Feliz (pause for laughing). As I'm sure you recall, David Carpenter (whom we interviewed in October 2010) started out as a catcher, but was moved to pitcher in 2008, where he is obviously enjoying more success. It was all Jeff Luhnow's idea:
Carpenter:
They saw an opportunity for me to be a pitcher. Luhnow was really the one that pushed the idea and really had everybody going towards that.”
Carpenter, to AC in 2010:
Part of the reason was Yadi Molina had signed a big contract and none of the catchers below him were going to be moving anytime soon. They felt that it would be a good career move. The Cardinals had success with a friend of mine, Jason Motte, converting him from a catcher to a pitcher and we shared similar characteristics.
Carpenter:
They saw an opportunity for me to be a pitcher. Luhnow was really the one that pushed the idea and really had everybody going towards that.”
Carpenter, to AC in 2010:
Part of the reason was Yadi Molina had signed a big contract and none of the catchers below him were going to be moving anytime soon. They felt that it would be a good career move. The Cardinals had success with a friend of mine, Jason Motte, converting him from a catcher to a pitcher and we shared similar characteristics.
The Astros might move Spring Training facilities
Soon, there might not even be a reason to go to Kissimmee, as Jim Crane is on record as having interest in moving the Astros' Spring Training facilities to Martin County, Florida, on the Atlantic coast.
Stuart, Florida, near Crane's golf club, is two hours southeast of Kissimmee, close to Port St. Lucie, West Palm Beach, and two hours north of Miami.
Stuart, Florida, near Crane's golf club, is two hours southeast of Kissimmee, close to Port St. Lucie, West Palm Beach, and two hours north of Miami.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
The middle infielder situation gets a little less cloudy
So Anderson Hernandez has signed a minor-league deal with the Pirates.
Who does this affect? Not Jed Lowrie or Jose Altuve, your presumed 2012 middle infielders, but it creates a free spot at 2B at OKC. This could be a place for Brian Bixler, but it also could be a place for Brandon Wikoff, or Jose Carlos Thompson - both of whom spent time at Corpus in 2011.
Who does this affect? Not Jed Lowrie or Jose Altuve, your presumed 2012 middle infielders, but it creates a free spot at 2B at OKC. This could be a place for Brian Bixler, but it also could be a place for Brandon Wikoff, or Jose Carlos Thompson - both of whom spent time at Corpus in 2011.
The Astros might cut Quintero to sign Pudge
Oh Jon Heyman, how you titillate us. Heyman tweeted:
Heard houston might not keep quintero. #pudge a possibility.
Well, wouldn't that be interesting, and I have no idea what to make of this. We're talking about backup catchers here, right? Because at some point Castro will be healthy (ideally). But Quintero and the Astros avoided arbitration with a $1m+ deal, which isn't necessarily guaranteed. Will Pudge sign for that amount? Will he be better at nurturing young Jason Castro? Does it even matter, at all?
Heard houston might not keep quintero. #pudge a possibility.
Well, wouldn't that be interesting, and I have no idea what to make of this. We're talking about backup catchers here, right? Because at some point Castro will be healthy (ideally). But Quintero and the Astros avoided arbitration with a $1m+ deal, which isn't necessarily guaranteed. Will Pudge sign for that amount? Will he be better at nurturing young Jason Castro? Does it even matter, at all?
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Red Sox still in contact with Astros about Wandy
Comcast SportsNet New England's Sean McAdam says that the Red Sox are still in contact with the Astros about Wandy Rodriguez.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Would you re-sign Roy?
So apparently Roy Oswalt has been convinced that a multi-year deal isn't a great idea right now, and he would be open to a one-year deal. The question is: Would he make sense for the Astros?
Answer (for me, anyway): Yes. But only if it's on the condition that Wandy or Myers is traded. Why? Let's examine, shall we?
Yeah. Oswalt gets hurt. He has a back like my grandmother, and he'll be 34 in 2012. On the surface, he doesn't exactly fit what the Astros are trying to do. But if his goal is to re-establish value, then he really only needs to put together a solid half-season in Houston.
Let's say - as a pre-condition - that the Astros trade Wandy and/or Myers. Trading one would net $6-7 million in 2012 (because the recipient certainly won't be paying for the whole player) and prospects, depending on the one who is traded. If the Astros offer $10 million to Roy on a one-year contract (even with pitching only 139IP in 2011, FanGraphs listed his value at $11m), he can set himself up for a longer deal in 2012 and beyond if he pitches well enough to get traded at the deadline, ideally bringing back more prospects (or one good one).
By doing so, the Astros would be on the hook for about $6m of that $10m, which trading Wandy/Myers would off-set.
And if Roy is looking for the next contract, it makes sense to return to the scene where he enjoyed quite a lot of success. At Minute Maid Park, Roy has a career 2.92 ERA/1.12 WHIP. His 4.05 K:BB ratio is the second-highest rate among stadiums where he has made more than ten starts.
Maybe Roy isn't interested in coming back to Houston. Maybe Houston burned its bridge in 2010. But maybe the Astros could use the oft-whispered Veteran Presence on the rotation should a trade happen to allow it. There is likely nothing to it. But it is December 20. And we can't keep writing about how much we love Jeff Luhnow, or Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame chances, forever. We need that space in January.
Answer (for me, anyway): Yes. But only if it's on the condition that Wandy or Myers is traded. Why? Let's examine, shall we?
Yeah. Oswalt gets hurt. He has a back like my grandmother, and he'll be 34 in 2012. On the surface, he doesn't exactly fit what the Astros are trying to do. But if his goal is to re-establish value, then he really only needs to put together a solid half-season in Houston.
Let's say - as a pre-condition - that the Astros trade Wandy and/or Myers. Trading one would net $6-7 million in 2012 (because the recipient certainly won't be paying for the whole player) and prospects, depending on the one who is traded. If the Astros offer $10 million to Roy on a one-year contract (even with pitching only 139IP in 2011, FanGraphs listed his value at $11m), he can set himself up for a longer deal in 2012 and beyond if he pitches well enough to get traded at the deadline, ideally bringing back more prospects (or one good one).
By doing so, the Astros would be on the hook for about $6m of that $10m, which trading Wandy/Myers would off-set.
And if Roy is looking for the next contract, it makes sense to return to the scene where he enjoyed quite a lot of success. At Minute Maid Park, Roy has a career 2.92 ERA/1.12 WHIP. His 4.05 K:BB ratio is the second-highest rate among stadiums where he has made more than ten starts.
Maybe Roy isn't interested in coming back to Houston. Maybe Houston burned its bridge in 2010. But maybe the Astros could use the oft-whispered Veteran Presence on the rotation should a trade happen to allow it. There is likely nothing to it. But it is December 20. And we can't keep writing about how much we love Jeff Luhnow, or Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame chances, forever. We need that space in January.
Monday, December 19, 2011
The most unbelievable believable thing you'll read all night
Richard Justice a hot little rumor:
Hearing former Astros GM Ed Wade will end up back with Phillies as a scout
There are simply too many jokes that I can't pick just one.
Update: You know, the joke actually makes itself. No need for another one.
Hearing former Astros GM Ed Wade will end up back with Phillies as a scout
There are simply too many jokes that I can't pick just one.
Update: You know, the joke actually makes itself. No need for another one.
Looking back at the 2011 ZIPS projections
So earlier today, Dan Szymborski posted the 2012 Astros ZIPS projections which, as clack says at TCB:
ZIPS is one of the more respected systems for projecting player performance. I won't say it's the best system, because that is hard to determine. But the godawful Astros' projections of the last couple of years have identified some problem areas for the roster that would materialize during the year.
Let's see what ZIPS projected for 2011 vs. what really happened (selected players):
I'm not committed enough to look at the pitchers, but we can break this down: ZIPS-projected ERA+ and actual ERA+:
Wandy: (ZIPS) 109, (Actual) 109
Myers: 101, 85
Happ: 94, 71
Norris: 91, 100
Lyles: 84, 71
So take from this what you will. No projection system is perfect, as it can't figure in playing time. But ZIPS is historically pretty good.
ZIPS is one of the more respected systems for projecting player performance. I won't say it's the best system, because that is hard to determine. But the godawful Astros' projections of the last couple of years have identified some problem areas for the roster that would materialize during the year.
Let's see what ZIPS projected for 2011 vs. what really happened (selected players):
| Name | Set | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | K:BB |
| Pence | ZIPS | .277/.326/.463 | 111 | 113:44 |
| Pence | 2011 | .314/.370/.502 | 138 | 124:56 |
| Lee | ZIPS | .275/.319/.459 | 108 | 50:35 |
| Lee | 2011 | .275/.342/.446 | 117 | 60:59 |
| Wallace | ZIPS | .261/.324/.414 | 98 | 129:34 |
| Wallace | 2011 | .259/.334/.369 | 96 | 91:36 |
| Barmes | ZIPS | .245/.299/.385 | 84 | 87:28 |
| Barmes | 2011 | .244/.312/.386 | 93 | 88:38 |
| Martinez | ZIPS | .272/.323/.395 | 93 | 115:37 |
| Martinez | 2011 | .274/.319/.423 | 104 | 48:13 |
| Sanchez | ZIPS | .258/.306/.331 | 72 | 80:31 |
| Sanchez | 2011 | .240/.305/.285 | 65 | 44:27 |
I'm not committed enough to look at the pitchers, but we can break this down: ZIPS-projected ERA+ and actual ERA+:
Wandy: (ZIPS) 109, (Actual) 109
Myers: 101, 85
Happ: 94, 71
Norris: 91, 100
Lyles: 84, 71
So take from this what you will. No projection system is perfect, as it can't figure in playing time. But ZIPS is historically pretty good.
These ZIPS projections are rated NC-17
Dan Szymborski has your ZIPS projections for the Astros. And hey, Jim Crane, I hope you got a prenup with Luhnow.
The long reckoning expected by observers for an organization that had a GM in Ed Wade that simultaneously ignored the major leagues, the minors leagues, and any kind of thrift, finally came to pass, with no late season mirage of adequacy to convinced the team to double-down on failure.
Browse for yourself, but here are some highlights:
Some interesting projections:
Carlos Lee: .273/.323/.441
J.D. Martinez: .281/.335/.414
Jed Lowrie: .249/.316/.414
Jordan Schafer: .224/.291/.320
Oh, it's not pretty
The long reckoning expected by observers for an organization that had a GM in Ed Wade that simultaneously ignored the major leagues, the minors leagues, and any kind of thrift, finally came to pass, with no late season mirage of adequacy to convinced the team to double-down on failure.
Browse for yourself, but here are some highlights:
Some interesting projections:
Carlos Lee: .273/.323/.441
J.D. Martinez: .281/.335/.414
Jed Lowrie: .249/.316/.414
Jordan Schafer: .224/.291/.320
Oh, it's not pretty
Brian Bixler clears waivers
In order to make room for the incoming Lowrie/Weiland, Brian Bixler was designated for assignment. He cleared waivers, and has accepted his outright assignment to Triple-A OKC, and will be at Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.
The Astros need a Double-A manager
The Astros will be looking for a new manager at Corpus after moving previous manager Tom Lawless (who had previously been at Lancaster) to Roving Instructor.
This may be the first of what could be a number of changes related to player development.
This may be the first of what could be a number of changes related to player development.
New ownership creates challenge for minor-league affiliates
With a captip to Citizen Andrew, we find this article, from the Troy (NY) Record, in which the ValleyCats are just waiting and seeing what will happen under the Crane/Postolos/Luhnow regime...
ValleyCats GM Rick Murphy:
“I just can’t imagine a guy spending $615 million on a business, especially a (ball)club that had the worst record in both leagues and not want to turn that around or make changes...I would think that the performance on the field is going warrant a close examination of what’s going on (with) baseball (player) development. So, from there, I would anticipate, that from the scouting, player personnel, right on through, will be scrutinized."
It's noted within the article that the Astros have PDC (Professional Development Contracts) with the ValleyCats through the 2012 season, and could be making a change in 2013. This makes no sense, unless the ValleyCats want out. But I can't imagine that the Astros want to part ways with Tri-City, since attendance is solid; and I can't imagine that the ValleyCats wouldn't want to see what the Luhnow regime has in store for them - it has to be better than what they've put up with over the past few years.
Also up for negotation at the end of the 2012 season are the PDCs for Oklahoma City, Lancaster, and Lexington.
ValleyCats GM Rick Murphy:
“I just can’t imagine a guy spending $615 million on a business, especially a (ball)club that had the worst record in both leagues and not want to turn that around or make changes...I would think that the performance on the field is going warrant a close examination of what’s going on (with) baseball (player) development. So, from there, I would anticipate, that from the scouting, player personnel, right on through, will be scrutinized."
It's noted within the article that the Astros have PDC (Professional Development Contracts) with the ValleyCats through the 2012 season, and could be making a change in 2013. This makes no sense, unless the ValleyCats want out. But I can't imagine that the Astros want to part ways with Tri-City, since attendance is solid; and I can't imagine that the ValleyCats wouldn't want to see what the Luhnow regime has in store for them - it has to be better than what they've put up with over the past few years.
Also up for negotation at the end of the 2012 season are the PDCs for Oklahoma City, Lancaster, and Lexington.
Hardball Times makes the case for Bagwell
The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe makes the HOF case for our very own Jeff Bagwell, who really doesn't need a case made for his HOF credentials, would it not be for the asinine, irresponsible "journalists" who are out hunting for witches with rubber ducks and fudge rounds.
Money quote:
The 19th-century guys played too far back in a much weaker overall league. Mize was a lot like Bagwell—power, average, walks—but had an even shorter career. Bagwell had fewer homers than McCovey, but more extra-base hits, more times on base and fewer outs. In his New Historical Abstract, Bill James ranks Bagwell the third-best first baseman ever, first among all NL ones.
Personally, I might take McCovey over him due to the difference in eras (McCovey played in the pitcher-happy 1960s), but if there’s a credible case that Bagwell is the best at his position in the history of his league, that’s an argument for induction. His best challenge to the title is the guy who emerged later on, Albert Pujols.
Money quote:
The 19th-century guys played too far back in a much weaker overall league. Mize was a lot like Bagwell—power, average, walks—but had an even shorter career. Bagwell had fewer homers than McCovey, but more extra-base hits, more times on base and fewer outs. In his New Historical Abstract, Bill James ranks Bagwell the third-best first baseman ever, first among all NL ones.
Personally, I might take McCovey over him due to the difference in eras (McCovey played in the pitcher-happy 1960s), but if there’s a credible case that Bagwell is the best at his position in the history of his league, that’s an argument for induction. His best challenge to the title is the guy who emerged later on, Albert Pujols.
Chat at astros.com with Jeff Luhnow
This is so incomprehensible from a historic standpoint (at least as far as the Astros are concerned). At 6pm (Central) tonight (Monday), there will be a live chat with Astros GM Jeff Luhnow.
Log on and chat live with Luhnow about his strategy to rebuild the team and his immediate goals for the 2012 season.
And speaking of Jeff Luhnow, here's a great article from the New York Times' Tyler Kepner on Luhnow.
Log on and chat live with Luhnow about his strategy to rebuild the team and his immediate goals for the 2012 season.
And speaking of Jeff Luhnow, here's a great article from the New York Times' Tyler Kepner on Luhnow.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Jason Michaels is no longer our problem
The gentleman who took so many ABs away from Brian Bogusevic, the gentleman Brad Mills trusted off the bench above all others - Jason Michaels - has signed a minor-league deal with the Washington Nationals.
What might have been
What if there were no trades, rule 5 picks, or free agency? Ever wondered what the Astros would look like if no player transactions were allowed? Well you're in luck, because CBSSports.com's blog Eye on Baseball is in the middle of a series that is putting together current lineups for each team as though each player stayed with the organization that first signed them. Their conclusion? The Astros would still only be a 75 win team in 2011, even with their best homegrown current player at every position. Given our horrible drafts in the earlier part of the decade, I'd say that's about right.
Melancon's mixed emotions
Brian McTaggart describes a tortured Mark Melancon:
Mark Melancon was eating a vacation lunch on a Cancun beach with his uncle on Wednesday when his wife walked up to him with a concerned look on her face. Melancon immediately thought the worst, thinking something was wrong with the couple's baby daughter, Brooklyn Marie.
"I hadn't seen a face like that from her since Brooklyn's been around," he said. "I just figured something was wrong and she needed help. She was full of emotions and then she told me the news, and I was just thankful Brooklyn was OK."
The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham talked to a very excited Mark Melancon:
Mark Melancon was on a beach in Cancun on Wednesday when he looked up and saw his wife, Mary Catherine, running his way.
“There was no reason in the world she would be running that fast and she had this expression on her face that was full of emotion,’’ Melancon said last night. “I was worried for a second that something was wrong. Then she started screaming, ‘You just got traded! It’s the Red Sox!'"
-
To McTaggart:
"I wish I could have won a little bit more, but every organization goes through those periods. I was looking forward to helping rebuild the team and create something very positive, but obviously I'm moving on and it's going to be a new and exciting adventure for me and my family."
To Abraham:
“I loved playing for the Yankees and getting a chance to pitch in the AL East. I’m glad to be going back to that division. Competition like that is good for you. I want to be on a contender with that kind of history and a front office that is solely there to win. It was amazing to me how different it was with the Astros. Houston was wonderful for my career and I enjoyed it. But now I’m in the kind of place I really want to be. Boston is the kind of team where you can create a lot of great memories."
Ahhh, the beauty of perspective...
Mark Melancon was eating a vacation lunch on a Cancun beach with his uncle on Wednesday when his wife walked up to him with a concerned look on her face. Melancon immediately thought the worst, thinking something was wrong with the couple's baby daughter, Brooklyn Marie.
"I hadn't seen a face like that from her since Brooklyn's been around," he said. "I just figured something was wrong and she needed help. She was full of emotions and then she told me the news, and I was just thankful Brooklyn was OK."
The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham talked to a very excited Mark Melancon:
Mark Melancon was on a beach in Cancun on Wednesday when he looked up and saw his wife, Mary Catherine, running his way.
“There was no reason in the world she would be running that fast and she had this expression on her face that was full of emotion,’’ Melancon said last night. “I was worried for a second that something was wrong. Then she started screaming, ‘You just got traded! It’s the Red Sox!'"
-
To McTaggart:
"I wish I could have won a little bit more, but every organization goes through those periods. I was looking forward to helping rebuild the team and create something very positive, but obviously I'm moving on and it's going to be a new and exciting adventure for me and my family."
To Abraham:
“I loved playing for the Yankees and getting a chance to pitch in the AL East. I’m glad to be going back to that division. Competition like that is good for you. I want to be on a contender with that kind of history and a front office that is solely there to win. It was amazing to me how different it was with the Astros. Houston was wonderful for my career and I enjoyed it. But now I’m in the kind of place I really want to be. Boston is the kind of team where you can create a lot of great memories."
Ahhh, the beauty of perspective...
Paul Clemens expects to be in Houston by the end of 2012
In an interview with Patch.com, Paul Clemens has some high hopes for 2012:
“I feel this year I will definitely get my shot at some point during the year. Things have been going great for me the past few years. When I get a shot I will be ready...
...“My fastball tops at about 97. I throw a circle change and a curve. I have worked some on a two-seam fastball but I have real life on my four-seam fastball. The two-seam is not something that I need. I hope to compete for a job at the big league level. That is my goal.”
“I feel this year I will definitely get my shot at some point during the year. Things have been going great for me the past few years. When I get a shot I will be ready...
...“My fastball tops at about 97. I throw a circle change and a curve. I have worked some on a two-seam fastball but I have real life on my four-seam fastball. The two-seam is not something that I need. I hope to compete for a job at the big league level. That is my goal.”
Travis Smink moves into coaching
Travis Smink, 31st Round selection in the 2009 draft, has moved on from professional baseball, and will be the new head coach for Carlisle (PA) High School.
In three seasons with the Astros (two with Greeneville, one with Tri-City), Smink posted a 4.57 ERA/1.37 WHIP, with 75K:19BB in 104.1IP.
In three seasons with the Astros (two with Greeneville, one with Tri-City), Smink posted a 4.57 ERA/1.37 WHIP, with 75K:19BB in 104.1IP.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
The J.R. Towles era has come to a swift end
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune's Joe Christensen tweeted that the Twins have signed J.R. Towles to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
Ahhh, Justin Richard. The promise you had! The ways you would tease us! You're now a Twin. No longer will we confuse your appearance with Chase Budinger.
Over five seasons - three of those stints totaling fewer than 53 plate appearances - Towles hit .187/.267/.315. But man, on September 20, 2007, we thought we saw Johnny Bench. Do you not remember that game? It was a meaningless one, although anytime the Astros beat the Cardinals 18-1 it can hardly be described as "meaningless."
It was Towles' sixth career major-league appearance. He started it off with a two-run double to left in the top of the 2nd. And a two-run single to left in the top of the 4th. And then an RBI ground-rule double to right in the top of the 6th. And was hit by a pitch in the 7th. And drew an RBI walk in the 8th. And then topped it off with a two-run homer in the top of the 9th.
The result? Six plate appearances: a walk, an HBP, four hits (two doubles, a homer, a single), eight RBIs.
But what was to come was not pretty. If you take out that one game, from 2008-11 Towles hit .168/.251/.289, bouncing back and forth between Houston and Triple-A/Double-A, where in parts of four seasons, he hit a maddening .286/.389/.443. But his days were effectively done when, on May 5, 2010 Greg Lucas brought the thunder about Towles, following his demotion all the way to Corpus. He wrote:
J.R. Towles is no longer an Astro because pitchers don’t like working with him. It has not been a secret within the Astro clubhouse that at least two starters—one with significant prominence—have had problems communicating with J.R. Everything from pace of the game, to targets offered, to being on the same page contributed to the split.
So fare thee well, J.R. Towles. If anyone has ever needed a change of scenery, it's you.
Ahhh, Justin Richard. The promise you had! The ways you would tease us! You're now a Twin. No longer will we confuse your appearance with Chase Budinger.
Over five seasons - three of those stints totaling fewer than 53 plate appearances - Towles hit .187/.267/.315. But man, on September 20, 2007, we thought we saw Johnny Bench. Do you not remember that game? It was a meaningless one, although anytime the Astros beat the Cardinals 18-1 it can hardly be described as "meaningless."
It was Towles' sixth career major-league appearance. He started it off with a two-run double to left in the top of the 2nd. And a two-run single to left in the top of the 4th. And then an RBI ground-rule double to right in the top of the 6th. And was hit by a pitch in the 7th. And drew an RBI walk in the 8th. And then topped it off with a two-run homer in the top of the 9th.
The result? Six plate appearances: a walk, an HBP, four hits (two doubles, a homer, a single), eight RBIs.
But what was to come was not pretty. If you take out that one game, from 2008-11 Towles hit .168/.251/.289, bouncing back and forth between Houston and Triple-A/Double-A, where in parts of four seasons, he hit a maddening .286/.389/.443. But his days were effectively done when, on May 5, 2010 Greg Lucas brought the thunder about Towles, following his demotion all the way to Corpus. He wrote:
J.R. Towles is no longer an Astro because pitchers don’t like working with him. It has not been a secret within the Astro clubhouse that at least two starters—one with significant prominence—have had problems communicating with J.R. Everything from pace of the game, to targets offered, to being on the same page contributed to the split.
So fare thee well, J.R. Towles. If anyone has ever needed a change of scenery, it's you.
The Common Man hands out the Bagwell Punishment
Hardball Talk linked to this today, but it's definitely worth a re-link: Nine sportswriters accused of plagiarizing their thoughts on Bagwell.
The task facing Luhnow
ESPN's Christina Kahrl has a good recap of what's facing new Astros GM Jeff Luhnow.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Stavinoha released
Zach Levine is reporting that recent minor league signee Nick Stavinoha has been granted a release to pursue opportunities in Japan. Not an unusual move, but a little more surprising given that he joined the Cardinals organization while new GM Jeff Luhnow was with St. Louis.
Jeff Bagwell: 1993 to 1994
This whole Hall of Fame/Jeff Bagwell stuff has me all riled up. I'm sure that the writers who actually give enough of a crap to check out Bagwell's Baseball-Reference page looked at his jump from 1993 to 1994 as enough "proof" to suspect something was going on with Bagwell's body. Let's examine, shall we?
In 142 games (609 PAs) in 1993, Bagwell posted the following:
.320/.388/.516, with 20 homers, (61 XBH), 73K:62BB
In 1994, Bagwell played 110 games (strike-shortened season), with 479 PAs, posting:
.368/.451/.750, 39 homers (73 XBH), 65K:65BB
That's a significant jump - 19 more home runs in 130 fewer PAS. If we use, you know, a calculator, we know that Bagwell hit homers in 1993 at a rate of one every 30.45 plate appearances. In 1994, it was one every 12.28 plate appearances. What changed?
In 1993, Bagwell hit .330/.409/.509 in the Astrodome and .310/.365/.522 on the road, with a difference of only seven plate appearances between the two splits. Ten of his homers were at home, ten were on the road. Seven of those homers came in May, when he busted out for a .412/.467/.676 slash line, with 13K:14BB. Three of those homers came in one series against the Reds (May 6-8) where they left the Astrodome with a 12-17 record. All three came against the Reds' relievers.
Still, Bagwell played his last game of the season on September 12, 1993 when a Ben Rivera pitch ended up breaking his hand, causing Bagwell to miss the final 20 games of the season. If you figure that Bagwell missed about 86 plate appearances, it translates into approximately three more HRs. It's not a lot, but going from 23 to 39 homers is a little different than 20 to 39.
Bagwell was also either hitting in front of Eric Anthony or Ken Caminiti in 1993. Anthony hit 4th in 86 games in 1993, and posted a .272/.346/.453 line in the cleanup spot. Caminiti - when hitting 4th - hit .237/.309/.289. Anthony was good, Caminiti was not.
In 1994, Bagwell killed lefties (he killed everybody, in general), hitting .457/.544/1.095, with 18 of his 39 homers coming in 125 PAs vs. LHP (as opposed to a .318/.408/.592 line, with 10 homers in 213 PAs. So that's a homer every 6.9 PAs against a lefty in 1994, and one every 21.3 PAs in 1993.
But here's something else: From Opening Day to June 13, Bagwell hit 4th in the lineup, behind Craig Biggio, and he posted a .327/.406/.636 line with 17 homers, one every 12.9 PAs. Impressive, but not legendary. However, starting with the June 14, 1994 game, Terry Collins moved Bagwell back to the #3 spot, When Bagwell hit 3rd, he hit .417/.505/.889, with 19 doubles, 22 homers, 28K:32BB (11 intentional), with a .398 BABIP. That's one HR every 9.9 PAs.
On July 5, Biggio took over the leadoff spot, where Bagwell - now two spots behind Biggio, one behind Steve Finley, and in front of Ken Caminiti - hit .407/.507/.850 with a homer every 10.9 PAs, and an extra-base hit every 5.92 PAs.
In 1994, Craig Biggio also, after 5 1/2 good seasons, hit .300 for the first time - hitting .318/.411/.483, and posting his first .800+ OPS season. As the lead-off hitter, Biggio hit .347/.446/.533 in 1994.
From Opening Day - July 2, 1994, the Astros were 44-36 (.550), and hit 265/.333/.427. After Biggio was moved to the lead-off spot and the order got all shifted around, the Astros as a team hit .305/.378/.485, and went 22-13 (.629) until the strike happened.
So it's my opinion that Bagwell - after almost 2,000 plate appearances - was putting together a great year in 1994 until the lineup was shifted to maximize the lineup, and then it became a monster year. Ken Caminiti is a key player in this, as he hit .283/.352/.495 in 1994, becoming an All-Star for the first time, and providing protection for Bagwell.
Of course you're thinking, "But Caminiti admitted using steroids!" And you're right. However, he said he didn't start using until 1996, when he was in San Diego, to recover from a shoulder injury. If you think Bagwell juiced because he was buddies with Caminiti, Bagwell's MVP season pre-dates Caminiti's introduction to the magical world of injectible super-hero strength by two seasons, and Caminiti wasn't in Houston when he says he started juicing. And if you don't believe Caminiti, then there's no logic or rhyme/reason to persuade you.
Does this absolve Jeff Bagwell? I'm sure it won't mean a single solitary to anyone who doesn't want to look much more closely at the Hall of Fame than the internal "Do I think this guy is a Hall of Famer?" question. But it matters to me.
In 142 games (609 PAs) in 1993, Bagwell posted the following:
.320/.388/.516, with 20 homers, (61 XBH), 73K:62BB
In 1994, Bagwell played 110 games (strike-shortened season), with 479 PAs, posting:
.368/.451/.750, 39 homers (73 XBH), 65K:65BB
That's a significant jump - 19 more home runs in 130 fewer PAS. If we use, you know, a calculator, we know that Bagwell hit homers in 1993 at a rate of one every 30.45 plate appearances. In 1994, it was one every 12.28 plate appearances. What changed?
In 1993, Bagwell hit .330/.409/.509 in the Astrodome and .310/.365/.522 on the road, with a difference of only seven plate appearances between the two splits. Ten of his homers were at home, ten were on the road. Seven of those homers came in May, when he busted out for a .412/.467/.676 slash line, with 13K:14BB. Three of those homers came in one series against the Reds (May 6-8) where they left the Astrodome with a 12-17 record. All three came against the Reds' relievers.
Still, Bagwell played his last game of the season on September 12, 1993 when a Ben Rivera pitch ended up breaking his hand, causing Bagwell to miss the final 20 games of the season. If you figure that Bagwell missed about 86 plate appearances, it translates into approximately three more HRs. It's not a lot, but going from 23 to 39 homers is a little different than 20 to 39.
Bagwell was also either hitting in front of Eric Anthony or Ken Caminiti in 1993. Anthony hit 4th in 86 games in 1993, and posted a .272/.346/.453 line in the cleanup spot. Caminiti - when hitting 4th - hit .237/.309/.289. Anthony was good, Caminiti was not.
In 1994, Bagwell killed lefties (he killed everybody, in general), hitting .457/.544/1.095, with 18 of his 39 homers coming in 125 PAs vs. LHP (as opposed to a .318/.408/.592 line, with 10 homers in 213 PAs. So that's a homer every 6.9 PAs against a lefty in 1994, and one every 21.3 PAs in 1993.
But here's something else: From Opening Day to June 13, Bagwell hit 4th in the lineup, behind Craig Biggio, and he posted a .327/.406/.636 line with 17 homers, one every 12.9 PAs. Impressive, but not legendary. However, starting with the June 14, 1994 game, Terry Collins moved Bagwell back to the #3 spot, When Bagwell hit 3rd, he hit .417/.505/.889, with 19 doubles, 22 homers, 28K:32BB (11 intentional), with a .398 BABIP. That's one HR every 9.9 PAs.
On July 5, Biggio took over the leadoff spot, where Bagwell - now two spots behind Biggio, one behind Steve Finley, and in front of Ken Caminiti - hit .407/.507/.850 with a homer every 10.9 PAs, and an extra-base hit every 5.92 PAs.
In 1994, Craig Biggio also, after 5 1/2 good seasons, hit .300 for the first time - hitting .318/.411/.483, and posting his first .800+ OPS season. As the lead-off hitter, Biggio hit .347/.446/.533 in 1994.
From Opening Day - July 2, 1994, the Astros were 44-36 (.550), and hit 265/.333/.427. After Biggio was moved to the lead-off spot and the order got all shifted around, the Astros as a team hit .305/.378/.485, and went 22-13 (.629) until the strike happened.
So it's my opinion that Bagwell - after almost 2,000 plate appearances - was putting together a great year in 1994 until the lineup was shifted to maximize the lineup, and then it became a monster year. Ken Caminiti is a key player in this, as he hit .283/.352/.495 in 1994, becoming an All-Star for the first time, and providing protection for Bagwell.
Of course you're thinking, "But Caminiti admitted using steroids!" And you're right. However, he said he didn't start using until 1996, when he was in San Diego, to recover from a shoulder injury. If you think Bagwell juiced because he was buddies with Caminiti, Bagwell's MVP season pre-dates Caminiti's introduction to the magical world of injectible super-hero strength by two seasons, and Caminiti wasn't in Houston when he says he started juicing. And if you don't believe Caminiti, then there's no logic or rhyme/reason to persuade you.
Does this absolve Jeff Bagwell? I'm sure it won't mean a single solitary to anyone who doesn't want to look much more closely at the Hall of Fame than the internal "Do I think this guy is a Hall of Famer?" question. But it matters to me.
Luhnow, on today's trade
Jeff Luhnow talked to Mark Berman about the Melancon trade today:
"Obviously we're giving up a lot in Melancon, but I feel like we're getting value back in getting a guy that can play shortstop with a good (bat), a switch-hitter, as well as a pitcher who is capable of being in the rotation next year."
"Obviously we're giving up a lot in Melancon, but I feel like we're getting value back in getting a guy that can play shortstop with a good (bat), a switch-hitter, as well as a pitcher who is capable of being in the rotation next year."
Brian Bixler removed from 40-man roster
Hope you enjoyed that spot on the 40-man, Brian Bixler. Because you have been outrighted to make room for Jed Lowrie and/or Kyle Weiland.
More respect for Astros farm system
J.P Schwartz over at TopProspectAlert.com just put out his farm system rankings with links to his top 15 prospects for each organization, and the Astros are solidly average, coming in at #15!
Reactions to Melancon/Lowrie-Weiland trade
Here are some quick reactions to the trade today (from respected tweeters, woofers):
McTaggart:
the Astros are unlikely to contend next year, so having a lights-out closer isn’t tantamount. Expect the club to get a good look next year at several arms they believe could close in the future. The bottom line is the Astros traded one young player and two more in return. The rebuildling continues.
Keith Law (Insider-only):
Jeff Luhnow's first move as general manager of the Houston Astros isn't a huge one, but it's a great deal for them and shows just how badly the club was mismanaged under Ed Wade over the last few years.
Baseball America:
First on new Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow's to-do list: acquire viable options to play shortstop and catcher, the two most demanding positions on the field. His search continues for a catcher to cover for the injured Jason Castro, but odds are he found his shortstop in a trade with the Red Sox.
FanGraphs:
A healthy Lowrie will make this look like a steal for Houston three years down the road, but we haven’t seen a healthy Lowrie all too often. It’s entirely possible that Weiland will outproduce Melancon next season by himself, but contenders often have to overpay a bit to deal with their pressing needs.
Sky Kalkman:
Well crap, it appears I'm going to have to give @jluhnlow the Friedman treatment and fanboy all his moves no matter what.
Jay Jaffe:
Those of you clucking about Jed Lowrie's durability, are you really going to hold a 4-month bout of mono against him?
Eno Sarris:
Weiland for Melancon would have been fair. Adding Lowrie was a mistake.
BrewersBar:
Melancon was all it took to get Jed Lowrie? Jeez.
Marc Normandin:
This is a trade where both sides did well. I know we all hate trades without clear winners.
Jon Heyman:
melancon nice pickup for #redsox. cant be their closer, tho. they still need someone for the 9th.
Buster Olney:
Like the Astros-Red Sox trade for both sides; Melancon gives BOS possible high-end reliever, and Lowrie could do some damage for HOU.
Keith Olbermann:
Red Sox rip Astros off
McTaggart:
the Astros are unlikely to contend next year, so having a lights-out closer isn’t tantamount. Expect the club to get a good look next year at several arms they believe could close in the future. The bottom line is the Astros traded one young player and two more in return. The rebuildling continues.
Keith Law (Insider-only):
Jeff Luhnow's first move as general manager of the Houston Astros isn't a huge one, but it's a great deal for them and shows just how badly the club was mismanaged under Ed Wade over the last few years.
Baseball America:
First on new Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow's to-do list: acquire viable options to play shortstop and catcher, the two most demanding positions on the field. His search continues for a catcher to cover for the injured Jason Castro, but odds are he found his shortstop in a trade with the Red Sox.
FanGraphs:
A healthy Lowrie will make this look like a steal for Houston three years down the road, but we haven’t seen a healthy Lowrie all too often. It’s entirely possible that Weiland will outproduce Melancon next season by himself, but contenders often have to overpay a bit to deal with their pressing needs.
Sky Kalkman:
Well crap, it appears I'm going to have to give @jluhnlow the Friedman treatment and fanboy all his moves no matter what.
Jay Jaffe:
Those of you clucking about Jed Lowrie's durability, are you really going to hold a 4-month bout of mono against him?
Eno Sarris:
Weiland for Melancon would have been fair. Adding Lowrie was a mistake.
BrewersBar:
Melancon was all it took to get Jed Lowrie? Jeez.
Marc Normandin:
This is a trade where both sides did well. I know we all hate trades without clear winners.
Jon Heyman:
melancon nice pickup for #redsox. cant be their closer, tho. they still need someone for the 9th.
Buster Olney:
Like the Astros-Red Sox trade for both sides; Melancon gives BOS possible high-end reliever, and Lowrie could do some damage for HOU.
Keith Olbermann:
Red Sox rip Astros off
Astros trade Mark Melancon, get a shortstop
Have a seat, Angel Sanchez. The Astros have a new shortstop, Jed Lowrie.
Jeff Luhnow has apparently pulled the trigger on a trade with the Red Sox sending 2011 closer Mark Melancon to Boston for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.
Jed Lowrie answers the question of "Who in the hell is going to play shortstop?" A definite upgrade over Angel Sanchez, Lowrie has hit .252/.324/.408 in parts of four seasons with the Red Sox. His breakout year was in an injury-shortened 2010, when he hit .287/.381/.526 in 55 games, with 25K:25BB.
In 88 games for Boston in 2011, he regressed, hitting .252/.303/.382. Fire Brand of the American League has a review of Lowrie's 2011, with this money-quote:
Certainly, if you think this is a good buy-low situation, then now is a good time to get in. Depending on who you talk to, in 2011 Lowrie is everything from a 4-win shortstop to an injury-riddled super-utility. If I were dealing for him, I would bet the latter.
I didn't watch the Red Sox in 2011, because they play in an inferior league, but I feel like Lowrie's promise is an upgrade over Angel Sanchez' existing skill set.
Kyle Weiland is a 25-year old 6'4" 195lb RHP from Albuquerque, and was the Red Sox' 3rd Round pick in 2008. He appared in seven games (five starts) for the Red Sox in 2011, pretty much getting beat up (7.66 ERA/1.66 WHIP), but in 90 minor-league appareances (85 starts), has a 3.51 ERA/1.22 WHIP, with a 2.49 K:BB ratio. In Triple-A in 2011, Weiland threw 128.1IP, allowing 108H/51ER, 126K:55BB.
Sox Prospects says:
90-95 MPH fastball that comes in two-seam and four-seam varieties. Two-seamer has excellent late life and arm-side run. Attacks the zone with solid-average command of his fastball. Doesn't make a lot of mistakes with it and uses both sides of the plate, but can leave it up on occasions. 78-81 MPH curveball has made strides since signing.
WEEI's Alex Speier has this excellent article on Weiland, where Red Sox pitcher Andrew Miller says:
“From what I understand, they always thought, ‘He was a closer in college and maybe he’ll be a reliever again.’ But what I’ve seen from him as a starter, he’s certainly got the ability and stuff to do it. It’s good that he’s getting the opportunity. He’s earned it – especially this year. At a certain point, if he’s able to have success in Triple-A as a starter, he’s able to hold his velocity, maybe you think, ‘Oh, maybe he’s a starter.’
The Astros of course are (reportedly) losing Mark Melancon, the 26-year old closer acquired from the Yankees in the 2010 Berkman trade, and 20 saves. With Brandon Lyon and his millions expected to be back (and healthy-ish), Melancon was expendable, and the 2012 Astros need a shortstop more than they needed Melancon. Jed Lowrie is under team control until 2015 (Arbitration-eligible this off-season), and Weiland is under team control until 2018.
Who does this affect most on the current roster? Brandon Lyon gets his job back (presumably). Jimmy Paredes stays at 3rd, and Jonathan Villar now has the luxury of having time to develop. It also may pave the way for a Wandy/Myers trade, as the Astros have Weiland waiting in the wings for the rotation.
Jeff Luhnow has apparently pulled the trigger on a trade with the Red Sox sending 2011 closer Mark Melancon to Boston for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.
Jed Lowrie answers the question of "Who in the hell is going to play shortstop?" A definite upgrade over Angel Sanchez, Lowrie has hit .252/.324/.408 in parts of four seasons with the Red Sox. His breakout year was in an injury-shortened 2010, when he hit .287/.381/.526 in 55 games, with 25K:25BB.
In 88 games for Boston in 2011, he regressed, hitting .252/.303/.382. Fire Brand of the American League has a review of Lowrie's 2011, with this money-quote:
Certainly, if you think this is a good buy-low situation, then now is a good time to get in. Depending on who you talk to, in 2011 Lowrie is everything from a 4-win shortstop to an injury-riddled super-utility. If I were dealing for him, I would bet the latter.
I didn't watch the Red Sox in 2011, because they play in an inferior league, but I feel like Lowrie's promise is an upgrade over Angel Sanchez' existing skill set.
Kyle Weiland is a 25-year old 6'4" 195lb RHP from Albuquerque, and was the Red Sox' 3rd Round pick in 2008. He appared in seven games (five starts) for the Red Sox in 2011, pretty much getting beat up (7.66 ERA/1.66 WHIP), but in 90 minor-league appareances (85 starts), has a 3.51 ERA/1.22 WHIP, with a 2.49 K:BB ratio. In Triple-A in 2011, Weiland threw 128.1IP, allowing 108H/51ER, 126K:55BB.
Sox Prospects says:
90-95 MPH fastball that comes in two-seam and four-seam varieties. Two-seamer has excellent late life and arm-side run. Attacks the zone with solid-average command of his fastball. Doesn't make a lot of mistakes with it and uses both sides of the plate, but can leave it up on occasions. 78-81 MPH curveball has made strides since signing.
WEEI's Alex Speier has this excellent article on Weiland, where Red Sox pitcher Andrew Miller says:
“From what I understand, they always thought, ‘He was a closer in college and maybe he’ll be a reliever again.’ But what I’ve seen from him as a starter, he’s certainly got the ability and stuff to do it. It’s good that he’s getting the opportunity. He’s earned it – especially this year. At a certain point, if he’s able to have success in Triple-A as a starter, he’s able to hold his velocity, maybe you think, ‘Oh, maybe he’s a starter.’
The Astros of course are (reportedly) losing Mark Melancon, the 26-year old closer acquired from the Yankees in the 2010 Berkman trade, and 20 saves. With Brandon Lyon and his millions expected to be back (and healthy-ish), Melancon was expendable, and the 2012 Astros need a shortstop more than they needed Melancon. Jed Lowrie is under team control until 2015 (Arbitration-eligible this off-season), and Weiland is under team control until 2018.
Who does this affect most on the current roster? Brandon Lyon gets his job back (presumably). Jimmy Paredes stays at 3rd, and Jonathan Villar now has the luxury of having time to develop. It also may pave the way for a Wandy/Myers trade, as the Astros have Weiland waiting in the wings for the rotation.
Et Tu, Brutus?
The Hartford Courant - Jeff Bagwell's home newspaper - has a columnist named Jeff Jacobs, who apparently is a voting member of the BBWAA and wonders if the chore is "worth the hassle."
About Our Boy Jeff Bagwell:
Based on numbers alone, Bagwell deserves to be in the Hall of Fame...
...We have seen tens of players like Bagwell blow up from a skinny 20 to a cartoon 35. We have seen tens of players like Bagwell break down physically in their late 30s. I will never vote for Rafael Palmeiro or Mark McGwire, not in 15 lifetimes, but I also don't want to be part of any witch hunt. I only want to play the percentages...
...I have wanted to wait a few years to see if anything surfaced. To watch ESPN, Yahoo!, New York Daily News, the Texas media — someone with the resources and vigor — put Bagwell in its headlights and see if he emerges clean. I have no intentions of making him wait forever. I will wait another year or two.
To recap:
*By the standards of baseball, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.
*But Bagwell played with Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire.
*So this writer will wait until someone with enough time, money, and desire decides to put Bagwell on trial for PED use (something of which Bagwell was never officially linked).
*If no one does so, and soon, he'll just go ahead and vote for him.
This has to be one of the laziest arguments I've ever heard in not voting for a player. "By the numbers," Bagwell is a Hall of Famer. By the character clause, too, actually, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer, because he has never been linked to the use of PEDs. There have been whispers, even flat-out, undeveloped accusations, about Bagwell. But a whisper isn't admissible in a court of law. Which is exactly what the Hall of Fame is not.
Jonah Keri sums it up:
We believe ourselves to be experts, able to pinpoint when a player supposedly started using, exactly how much benefit he gained, and how we should thus evaluate his numbers. With players like Jeff Bagwell, the pseudo-analysis goes a step further, with hordes of writers declining to vote Bagwell into the Hall of Fame because he had big muscles, and some other players of his era were caught using, so … well … you know.
Jeff Jacobs is a prime example of why this Michael Rosenberg column is spot on:
It was probably always wrong for the media to determine the news with its award votes, but now it is ridiculous. We're not just creating news; we're creating controversies. Why should we be the judge and jury for every ballplayer? It is one thing for columnists (like me) to express opinions about what Braun did, did not do, or should have done. It's quite another for us to officially validate or void a player's achievements.
The purpose of becoming a sportswriter or columnist is to have an opinion. What Jacobs has done is to shy away from that role, let others do the work, and then pass judgment on other journalists' - the ones with "resources and vigor" - work.
About Our Boy Jeff Bagwell:
Based on numbers alone, Bagwell deserves to be in the Hall of Fame...
...We have seen tens of players like Bagwell blow up from a skinny 20 to a cartoon 35. We have seen tens of players like Bagwell break down physically in their late 30s. I will never vote for Rafael Palmeiro or Mark McGwire, not in 15 lifetimes, but I also don't want to be part of any witch hunt. I only want to play the percentages...
...I have wanted to wait a few years to see if anything surfaced. To watch ESPN, Yahoo!, New York Daily News, the Texas media — someone with the resources and vigor — put Bagwell in its headlights and see if he emerges clean. I have no intentions of making him wait forever. I will wait another year or two.
To recap:
*By the standards of baseball, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.
*But Bagwell played with Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire.
*So this writer will wait until someone with enough time, money, and desire decides to put Bagwell on trial for PED use (something of which Bagwell was never officially linked).
*If no one does so, and soon, he'll just go ahead and vote for him.
This has to be one of the laziest arguments I've ever heard in not voting for a player. "By the numbers," Bagwell is a Hall of Famer. By the character clause, too, actually, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer, because he has never been linked to the use of PEDs. There have been whispers, even flat-out, undeveloped accusations, about Bagwell. But a whisper isn't admissible in a court of law. Which is exactly what the Hall of Fame is not.
Jonah Keri sums it up:
We believe ourselves to be experts, able to pinpoint when a player supposedly started using, exactly how much benefit he gained, and how we should thus evaluate his numbers. With players like Jeff Bagwell, the pseudo-analysis goes a step further, with hordes of writers declining to vote Bagwell into the Hall of Fame because he had big muscles, and some other players of his era were caught using, so … well … you know.
Jeff Jacobs is a prime example of why this Michael Rosenberg column is spot on:
It was probably always wrong for the media to determine the news with its award votes, but now it is ridiculous. We're not just creating news; we're creating controversies. Why should we be the judge and jury for every ballplayer? It is one thing for columnists (like me) to express opinions about what Braun did, did not do, or should have done. It's quite another for us to officially validate or void a player's achievements.
The purpose of becoming a sportswriter or columnist is to have an opinion. What Jacobs has done is to shy away from that role, let others do the work, and then pass judgment on other journalists' - the ones with "resources and vigor" - work.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
The Indians are not in on Willingham, still want an OF/1B
Hey, so Ken Rosenthal says that the Indians, who have been linked to any and all short-term deals involving right-handed outfielders who can play first base, are not in on Josh Willingham.
Carlos Lee is as inevitable as a tazing at your work Christmas party.
Carlos Lee is as inevitable as a tazing at your work Christmas party.
J.A. Happ tendered contract
J.A. Happ was offered arbitration, and will return in 2012.
This makes sense, given how cheap he is. Before you get all crazy, let's look at Happ's June/July:
1-9 record. 51.2IP, 71H/44ER, 46K:29BB, 8 homers allowed, .332/.408/.565, .389 BABIP, 7.66 ERA/1.94 WHIP.
Then Aug/Sept:
3-4 record. 41IP, 29H/16ER, 36K:23BB, 4 homers allowed, .201/.310/.333, .238 BABIP, 3.51 ERA/1.27 WHIP.
This makes sense, given how cheap he is. Before you get all crazy, let's look at Happ's June/July:
1-9 record. 51.2IP, 71H/44ER, 46K:29BB, 8 homers allowed, .332/.408/.565, .389 BABIP, 7.66 ERA/1.94 WHIP.
Then Aug/Sept:
3-4 record. 41IP, 29H/16ER, 36K:23BB, 4 homers allowed, .201/.310/.333, .238 BABIP, 3.51 ERA/1.27 WHIP.
They call him Mr. Glass
Jason Castro is out for three months following surgery to remove the sesamoid bone in his left food.
Jon Heyman (I know) already says that the Astros and Pudge - yes, that Pudge, could be a fit. Although I really hope not.
Regardless, the timetable for Castro's return should put him back right around the middle of Spring Training. Get ready for Quintero Time (who signed a 1-year deal worth $1m + bonuses).
Jon Heyman (I know) already says that the Astros and Pudge - yes, that Pudge, could be a fit. Although I really hope not.
Regardless, the timetable for Castro's return should put him back right around the middle of Spring Training. Get ready for Quintero Time (who signed a 1-year deal worth $1m + bonuses).
Monday, December 12, 2011
FanGraphs: Wandy-to-Boston makes sense
In a post that looked remarkably similar to one I was working on to be published tonight, I will humbly withdraw my post and just link to this FanGraphs post saying that Boston makes a whole lot of sense for both sides.
Money quote:
The Astros are unlikely to be ready for serious competition by the time Rodriguez’s contract is up, and if they are able to net a couple of prospects in need of some more seasoning without eating too much of his contract, that’s a big win for them.
Money quote:
The Astros are unlikely to be ready for serious competition by the time Rodriguez’s contract is up, and if they are able to net a couple of prospects in need of some more seasoning without eating too much of his contract, that’s a big win for them.
Red Sox interested in Wandy
With a captip to Native Astro, the Boston Herald's Michael Silverman says that Wandy Rodriguez is among the available pitchers interesting the Red Sox, along with the White Sox' Gavin Floyd and John Danks, and the A's Gio Gonzalez.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Saturday update
Here is your early afternoon Saturday update:
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien says that he thinks Carlos Lee makes sense for the Braves, if the Astros are willing to eat more of his salary.
Peter Gammons tweets that CEO George Postolos has re-energized the entire Astros organization, and he was blown away by Luhnow powerpoint. It's a long,long climb, but it's begun
Jon Heyman says the Astros will have interest in Ryan Theriot, if he's non-tendered by the Cardinals.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien says that he thinks Carlos Lee makes sense for the Braves, if the Astros are willing to eat more of his salary.
Peter Gammons tweets that CEO George Postolos has re-energized the entire Astros organization, and he was blown away by Luhnow powerpoint. It's a long,long climb, but it's begun
Jon Heyman says the Astros will have interest in Ryan Theriot, if he's non-tendered by the Cardinals.
Friday, December 9, 2011
FanGraphs on Rhiner Cruz
FanGraphs' Mike Newman (aka Scouting the SAL has a piece up on Astros' #1 Rule 5 selection Rhiner Cruz:
No offense to Rhiner Cruz specifically, but I spent the entire 2009 season watching him close for Savannah, the New York Mets full season A affiliate and never felt the need to actually scout him. At the time, Cruz was 22 and lived off a bit of a funky delivery and a fastball which topped out at 92. With a fringy little slurve, it was enough to keep lower level hitters off balanced, but not an arsenal that would translate well at the big league level...
No offense to Rhiner Cruz specifically, but I spent the entire 2009 season watching him close for Savannah, the New York Mets full season A affiliate and never felt the need to actually scout him. At the time, Cruz was 22 and lived off a bit of a funky delivery and a fastball which topped out at 92. With a fringy little slurve, it was enough to keep lower level hitters off balanced, but not an arsenal that would translate well at the big league level...
Luhnow gets a four-year deal
Mark Berman's "Major League sources" say that new GM Jeff Luhnow received a four-year deal from Jim Crane/George Postolos.
Astros a Winter Meetings "loser"
So saith Tom Verducci:
The Angels and Rangers are so far out in front of the Athletics, Mariners and Astros (their AL West rivals beginning in 2013) that those clubs can't delude themselves into pretending to be contenders. The Athletics need the San Jose money more than ever, the Mariners may have to re-assess keeping Felix Hernandez out of any trade talks and the Astros will long for the good old days of the friendly NL Central.
This seems silly.
The Angels and Rangers are so far out in front of the Athletics, Mariners and Astros (their AL West rivals beginning in 2013) that those clubs can't delude themselves into pretending to be contenders. The Athletics need the San Jose money more than ever, the Mariners may have to re-assess keeping Felix Hernandez out of any trade talks and the Astros will long for the good old days of the friendly NL Central.
This seems silly.
Andy Van Hekken will play in Korea
Andy Van Hekken has declined contracts from the Astros and A's to play for the Nexen Heroes in Korea.
Van Hekken:
"I’m working to get back to the major leagues, and I think I’m as close as I’ve ever been. My agent and my wife and I talked about my desire to come back to the majors, that it’s still a goal. There will still be a need a year from now for a left-handed pitcher."
Van Hekken threw 129.2IP for OKC in 2011, allowing 152H/49ER, 111K:47BB, for a 3.40 ERA/1.54 WHIP. He has a career 122-86 record in 14 minor league seasons, with a 3.94 ERA/1.35 WHIP, and a 2.51 K:BB ratio.
I'm honestly sorry to see him go.
Still, it frees up a rotation spot at OKC, so we'll see where the rosters shake out, but it could bode well for Cosart, Oberholtzer, Clemens, etc.
Van Hekken:
"I’m working to get back to the major leagues, and I think I’m as close as I’ve ever been. My agent and my wife and I talked about my desire to come back to the majors, that it’s still a goal. There will still be a need a year from now for a left-handed pitcher."
Van Hekken threw 129.2IP for OKC in 2011, allowing 152H/49ER, 111K:47BB, for a 3.40 ERA/1.54 WHIP. He has a career 122-86 record in 14 minor league seasons, with a 3.94 ERA/1.35 WHIP, and a 2.51 K:BB ratio.
I'm honestly sorry to see him go.
Still, it frees up a rotation spot at OKC, so we'll see where the rosters shake out, but it could bode well for Cosart, Oberholtzer, Clemens, etc.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Might Ryan Theriot interest Houston?
Jon Heyman thinks so, as he may be non-tendered by the Cardinals.
Indians want Astros to take more than half of Carlos Lee's salary
The Indians were approached by the Astros about Carlos Lee, but the issue was money:
The issue in those talks is that the Tribe would need the Astros to assume more than half of Lee's salary. To take on a contract in the range of $7-9 million for 2012, the Indians would have to move salary in another trade.
For God's sake, do it.
Indians GM Chris Antonetti:
"We were able to further some of the discussions and dialogue that we had on both trades and free agents. Hopefully that's led us closer to a deal that will allow us to improve the team."
The issue in those talks is that the Tribe would need the Astros to assume more than half of Lee's salary. To take on a contract in the range of $7-9 million for 2012, the Indians would have to move salary in another trade.
For God's sake, do it.
Indians GM Chris Antonetti:
"We were able to further some of the discussions and dialogue that we had on both trades and free agents. Hopefully that's led us closer to a deal that will allow us to improve the team."
Duarte to Red Sox
Just to get it on the official record, that one guy the Astros had for about 20 minutes, Marco Duarte, was traded to the Red Sox for infielder Marwin Gonzalez.
Gonzalez is a 22-year old 6'1" 186lb switch-hitting infielder who came up in the Cubs' system. In six seasons, he has 1973 PAs, with a .258/.305/.352 line, 272K:116BB.
In 2011, he split time between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, hitting a combined .288/.343/.400, with 48K:33BB (465 PAs).
Red Sox GM Ben Cherington:
"Yeah, we took him on behalf of the Astros. There was a guy in the minor league phase we wanted to take higher and so it was simply we took a guy for them in the major league phase and they took a guy for us in the minor league phase.”
Gonzalez is a 22-year old 6'1" 186lb switch-hitting infielder who came up in the Cubs' system. In six seasons, he has 1973 PAs, with a .258/.305/.352 line, 272K:116BB.
In 2011, he split time between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, hitting a combined .288/.343/.400, with 48K:33BB (465 PAs).
Red Sox GM Ben Cherington:
"Yeah, we took him on behalf of the Astros. There was a guy in the minor league phase we wanted to take higher and so it was simply we took a guy for them in the major league phase and they took a guy for us in the minor league phase.”
A collection of reactions to Jeff Luhnow's hiring
Here is your recap of reactions to the Astros' hiring of Jeff Luhnow (which will be updated):
Riverfront Times:
If there's anyone in baseball who can turn around the moribund Astros in relatively short order, I trust Luhnow as much as just about anyone to find a way. Make no mistake, this is very bad news for the Cardinals. Under Luhnow's stewardship, the Cards have seen their minor league system go from among the worst in all of baseball to a top seven, maybe even top five system despite never having the chance to draft within the top ten.
Jeff Gordon:
Luhnow will make things better . . . because they can’t possibly get worse in Houston. Whether he can build a juggernaut remains to be seen. Either way, the rebuilding process won’t be dull.
Jon Heyman:
hearing good things about new astros gm jeff luhnow. "eminently qualified," 1 person said. was w/ champion cardinals.
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak:
"I'm glad they're moving to the AL West."
Riverfront Times:
If there's anyone in baseball who can turn around the moribund Astros in relatively short order, I trust Luhnow as much as just about anyone to find a way. Make no mistake, this is very bad news for the Cardinals. Under Luhnow's stewardship, the Cards have seen their minor league system go from among the worst in all of baseball to a top seven, maybe even top five system despite never having the chance to draft within the top ten.
Jeff Gordon:
Luhnow will make things better . . . because they can’t possibly get worse in Houston. Whether he can build a juggernaut remains to be seen. Either way, the rebuilding process won’t be dull.
Jon Heyman:
hearing good things about new astros gm jeff luhnow. "eminently qualified," 1 person said. was w/ champion cardinals.
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak:
"I'm glad they're moving to the AL West."
Thoughts on the Astros, and the Angels
If you're like me, you simply could not believe what had taken place. First, the Astros get moved (against their will) to the AL West. One of the reasons I didn't start looking for flamethrowers on eBay was because now, at least, Albert Pujols wouldn't be able to slay the Astros every chance he got.
Then I saw the tweets roll in that the Angels had spent the GDP of 46 countries to sign Albert Pujols. And then C.J. Wilson. And I got mad. I wrote a one-word email to some friends, and I bet you can guess what that one word was.
But then I started to think objectively. A future division rival has just committed $327 million to two players who will not be worth it towards the end of their contracts. Before the realignment mess, I was hoping that the Cardinals would over-commit to Pujols, because it would hamstring their payroll. So the Angels did it, instead.
Will Pujols out-produce his contract? Maybe. Seven of the ten players on Baseball-Reference to Pujols are Hall of Famers. And the other three are Ken Griffey, Juan Gonzalez, and Manny Ramirez; and Griffey is definitely a HOFer. Seriously, just take a second and look at Pujols' B-R page. It's insane.
C.J. Wilson is a different story. C.J. Wilson's similar players through age 30 are Joe Page, Paul Lindblad, Joe Price, Ray Narleski, Grant Jackson, Bob Chipman, Dave Hamilton, Fred Scherman, Don Mossi, and Ricky Horton. Exactly.
I don't know about the Angels' financial flexibility, but with paying Vernon Wells for three more years, and Jared Weaver through 2016, it's unlikely they'll be adding too terribly much in the future (not that they necessarily need to.) But they've just committed to Albert Pujols until 2021, and C.J. Wilson through 2017.
That said, where we should be concerned is through an existing AL West war. If the Rangers answer the Angels' moves by signing Prince Fielder, or...I don't know who's left, but if the Rangers answer with their own high-splash signing, it's not good for the rebuilding Astros. Should this happen, and the Angels/Rangers are looking like the US and Soviet Union in the late 1950s and the Astros are, you know, Bermuda, where the fallout will be terrible if shots are fired, it's a bad position to be in.
Luckily for us, after six hours, Jeff Luhnow looks like a freaking genius.
Then I saw the tweets roll in that the Angels had spent the GDP of 46 countries to sign Albert Pujols. And then C.J. Wilson. And I got mad. I wrote a one-word email to some friends, and I bet you can guess what that one word was.
But then I started to think objectively. A future division rival has just committed $327 million to two players who will not be worth it towards the end of their contracts. Before the realignment mess, I was hoping that the Cardinals would over-commit to Pujols, because it would hamstring their payroll. So the Angels did it, instead.
Will Pujols out-produce his contract? Maybe. Seven of the ten players on Baseball-Reference to Pujols are Hall of Famers. And the other three are Ken Griffey, Juan Gonzalez, and Manny Ramirez; and Griffey is definitely a HOFer. Seriously, just take a second and look at Pujols' B-R page. It's insane.
C.J. Wilson is a different story. C.J. Wilson's similar players through age 30 are Joe Page, Paul Lindblad, Joe Price, Ray Narleski, Grant Jackson, Bob Chipman, Dave Hamilton, Fred Scherman, Don Mossi, and Ricky Horton. Exactly.
I don't know about the Angels' financial flexibility, but with paying Vernon Wells for three more years, and Jared Weaver through 2016, it's unlikely they'll be adding too terribly much in the future (not that they necessarily need to.) But they've just committed to Albert Pujols until 2021, and C.J. Wilson through 2017.
That said, where we should be concerned is through an existing AL West war. If the Rangers answer the Angels' moves by signing Prince Fielder, or...I don't know who's left, but if the Rangers answer with their own high-splash signing, it's not good for the rebuilding Astros. Should this happen, and the Angels/Rangers are looking like the US and Soviet Union in the late 1950s and the Astros are, you know, Bermuda, where the fallout will be terrible if shots are fired, it's a bad position to be in.
Luckily for us, after six hours, Jeff Luhnow looks like a freaking genius.
Mills to return in 2012
So it's not all bloodshed in Houston, as KPRC Sports Director Randy McIlvoy, tweeting from Luhnow's press conference, says that Luhnow has talked to Mills about 2012 - indicating that Mills will be back.
Ultimately, this makes the most sense...for one more year. We're at the stage in the off-season where you're about eight weeks late on making managerial moves. So Luhnow will roll the dice on Mills. And I'm okay with that.
Ultimately, this makes the most sense...for one more year. We're at the stage in the off-season where you're about eight weeks late on making managerial moves. So Luhnow will roll the dice on Mills. And I'm okay with that.
Rule 5: Astros select Marco Duarte
In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Astros took Marco Duarte from the Rockies.
Duarte is a 25-year old, 6'2" 185lb RHP, spending all five of his professional seasons with the Rockies' organization. In 2011, he played in the Triple-A Mexican League with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico, who finished 63-40, tops in the North Division, and led the team with 12 wins.
He made 23 appearances - 19 starts, going 12-4 with a 4.94 ERA/1.76 WHIP. In 109.1IP, Duarte allowed 139H/60ER, 93K:53BB, with 13 wild pitches. In five seasons, Duarte is 26-17, with a 5.07 ERA/1.56 WHIP, and a 2.63 K:BB ratio.
Duarte is a 25-year old, 6'2" 185lb RHP, spending all five of his professional seasons with the Rockies' organization. In 2011, he played in the Triple-A Mexican League with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico, who finished 63-40, tops in the North Division, and led the team with 12 wins.
He made 23 appearances - 19 starts, going 12-4 with a 4.94 ERA/1.76 WHIP. In 109.1IP, Duarte allowed 139H/60ER, 93K:53BB, with 13 wild pitches. In five seasons, Duarte is 26-17, with a 5.07 ERA/1.56 WHIP, and a 2.63 K:BB ratio.
Rule 5: Astros select Rhiner Cruz
The Astros selected Mets RHP Rhiner Cruz with the first pick of the Rule 5 draft.
Cruz is a 25-year old, 6'2" 205lb righty from Santo Domingo. In 2011 he pitched in both High-A and Double-A Binghamton. At Binghamton, Cruz threw 58.2IP (36 appearances), allowing 43H/27ER, 51K:39BB, for a 1.40 WHIP. In seven minor-league seasons, Cruz has compiled a 3.44 ERA in 340IP, with a 1.44 WHIP. He doesn't have much in the way of command, walking 5.5 batters per 9 innings, with 40 wild pitches and 43 HBPs in those 340IP.
Mets GM Sandy Alderson said of losing Cruz:
There was a certain amount of buzz about Cruz and we did expect that he probably would be taken. He's got a very good arm, hasn't had great command during his minor league career...
Cruz is a 25-year old, 6'2" 205lb righty from Santo Domingo. In 2011 he pitched in both High-A and Double-A Binghamton. At Binghamton, Cruz threw 58.2IP (36 appearances), allowing 43H/27ER, 51K:39BB, for a 1.40 WHIP. In seven minor-league seasons, Cruz has compiled a 3.44 ERA in 340IP, with a 1.44 WHIP. He doesn't have much in the way of command, walking 5.5 batters per 9 innings, with 40 wild pitches and 43 HBPs in those 340IP.
Mets GM Sandy Alderson said of losing Cruz:
There was a certain amount of buzz about Cruz and we did expect that he probably would be taken. He's got a very good arm, hasn't had great command during his minor league career...
Friction in St. Louis with Luhnow
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon has a good reaction to the hiring of Jeff Luhnow:
Jeff Luhnow became a polarizing figure in the Cardinals front office. Many old-school baseball guys bristled at his new-age thinking.
His willingness to tap unconventional resources – stat guys, bloggers, baseball outsiders with oddball theories -- drove some folks nuts.
Luhnow became one of Bill DeWitt Jr.’s favorite employees. His ascension to player development czar and the resulting turmoil drove general manager Walt Jocketty from the organization.
But Luhnow got results, both through the amateur draft and international signings. While the Cardinals quickly assembled a small army of prospects that helped them win the 2011 World Championship...
...Now Luhnow he moves on to the mammoth challenge of rebuilding an entire organization. He is brimming with confidence and ambition, so the fun is about to start in Houston.
That's just a snipped of the article. Click the link for the whole thing - well worth a read.
Jeff Luhnow became a polarizing figure in the Cardinals front office. Many old-school baseball guys bristled at his new-age thinking.
His willingness to tap unconventional resources – stat guys, bloggers, baseball outsiders with oddball theories -- drove some folks nuts.
Luhnow became one of Bill DeWitt Jr.’s favorite employees. His ascension to player development czar and the resulting turmoil drove general manager Walt Jocketty from the organization.
But Luhnow got results, both through the amateur draft and international signings. While the Cardinals quickly assembled a small army of prospects that helped them win the 2011 World Championship...
...Now Luhnow he moves on to the mammoth challenge of rebuilding an entire organization. He is brimming with confidence and ambition, so the fun is about to start in Houston.
That's just a snipped of the article. Click the link for the whole thing - well worth a read.
A Cards fan's take on the Luhnow hire
The national response to this hire has been mostly positive, an unusual phenomenon for recent Astros moves. Obviously time will tell, but so far it seems that Crane and Postolos have the organization turning back towards a place of respectability."Congratulations to the Astros on getting the right guy at the right time. Luhnow resurrected a struggling Cardinals farm system when he arrived in 2003. The Cardinals had the last ranked farm system at the end of the 2004 season and today have a mid-range ranking, despite big league promotions of impact players to the World Championship team and using some as trade material for Holliday. Everything changed for the organization when he took over both scouting and development, smoothing these two usually at odds groups was a brilliant move. I’m sure whoever he puts in place in Houston will follow a similar philosophy.
He’s a very rational guy who seems able to balance both the sabermetric side of things with the “art” of scouting; at the very least he can get people from both sides of the spectrum to co-exist. He seems to understand the value of his prospects, which should help at the one facet that is really a question mark, how will he do when it comes time to sell off some pieces to make a move. The Astros are still a few years away from this really being a big problem, and in that time they will only get better and more stocked at the early levels.
As a Cardinals fan I’m very sad to see Jeff go because I think he has had as much, if not more, to do with the World Series we just won than any other member of the Cards front office. You’re in good hands Astros fans and who knows, you may even end up with Colby Rasmus before it’s all over."
It's Rule 5 day!
In addition to getting a new general manager, the Astros can now set their sights on the Rule 5 draft, in which Baseball America says Phillies' (of course) prospect Jiwan James is said to be in the Astros' crosshairs:
He's athletic, he's a major league-caliber defender right now, and his speed and defense could buy time for his bat to develop. One scout compared him to Dewayne Wise, whose long big league career started when he was Rule 5'd back in 1999.
BA also says that talk pretty much stopped when Luhnow was hired, and nobody has any idea what the Astros will do with their two open roster spots.
However, Subber10 - the Juvenile Court Clerk's counterpart at TCB says:
the dude is SOOO raw, I don't see him lasting the full season on a 25 man roster.
He's athletic, he's a major league-caliber defender right now, and his speed and defense could buy time for his bat to develop. One scout compared him to Dewayne Wise, whose long big league career started when he was Rule 5'd back in 1999.
BA also says that talk pretty much stopped when Luhnow was hired, and nobody has any idea what the Astros will do with their two open roster spots.
However, Subber10 - the Juvenile Court Clerk's counterpart at TCB says:
the dude is SOOO raw, I don't see him lasting the full season on a 25 man roster.
Astros hire Jeff Luhnow
The Astros have their man: St. Louis Cardinals Vice President of Player Procurement Jeff Luhnow has been named General Manager, and the franchise will be shaped in his own image.
George Postolos:
"Jeff has a demonstrated the ability to inspire and motivate staff in the front office and out in the field. He was born and raised in Mexico and his bicultural background will be an asset in recruiting players from Latin America and developing the Hispanic market for Los Astros."
Luhnow, 45, graduated from the Wharton School of Business at Penn, and had been with the Cardinals since 2003, overseeing their drafts since 2005.
Derrick Goold writes:
A pet project of his has been increasing the Cardinals' ability to evaluate and sign players in the Caribbean, and two of the Cardinals' top prospects — pitcher Carlos Martinez and outfielder Oscar Taveras — have been products from that system.
Here's a 2008 interview between Luhnow and Baseball Prospectus. And here's another interview from 2004.
The Cardinals' minor league affiliates have posted a 2953-2912 (.503) record in Luhnow's tenure as Draft Overseer, including a 920-803 (.534) record in the past two seasons. Just for comparison, the Astros' affiliates have a 2583-3113 (.453) record in the same span, and a 697-956 (.422) record over 2010-11.
Luhnow - who has a difficult name to make a nickname of - is the 4th general manager of the Astros since 2004.
George Postolos:
"Jeff has a demonstrated the ability to inspire and motivate staff in the front office and out in the field. He was born and raised in Mexico and his bicultural background will be an asset in recruiting players from Latin America and developing the Hispanic market for Los Astros."
Luhnow, 45, graduated from the Wharton School of Business at Penn, and had been with the Cardinals since 2003, overseeing their drafts since 2005.
Derrick Goold writes:
A pet project of his has been increasing the Cardinals' ability to evaluate and sign players in the Caribbean, and two of the Cardinals' top prospects — pitcher Carlos Martinez and outfielder Oscar Taveras — have been products from that system.
Here's a 2008 interview between Luhnow and Baseball Prospectus. And here's another interview from 2004.
The Cardinals' minor league affiliates have posted a 2953-2912 (.503) record in Luhnow's tenure as Draft Overseer, including a 920-803 (.534) record in the past two seasons. Just for comparison, the Astros' affiliates have a 2583-3113 (.453) record in the same span, and a 697-956 (.422) record over 2010-11.
Luhnow - who has a difficult name to make a nickname of - is the 4th general manager of the Astros since 2004.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Buehrle vs. Wandy
So Mark Buehrle just signed a 4-year, $58m deal with the Marlins. What does that mean for Wandy's contract, which is basically 3-year, $36m?
TALE OF THE TAPE!
Buehrle: 32-year old lefty
Wandy: 32-year old lefty.
Let's keep going (career)...
How about the last three seasons?
More 2009-11:
The point is, for the past three years, Wandy and Buehrle have been two very similar pitchers. Buehrle is getting a deal that pays $14.5m for the next four years, while the team that trades for Wandy is getting a similar pitcher for $12m/year for the next three years.
Ultimately, Buehrle's deal is going to skyrocket Wilson's asking price, which means that the team that wants Wandy is going to deal with a franchise motivated to move him, with a friendlier contract than expected 20 minutes ago.
TALE OF THE TAPE!
Buehrle: 32-year old lefty
Wandy: 32-year old lefty.
| Name | IP | ERA/WHIP | K:BB |
| Buehrle | 2476.2 | 3.83/1.28 | 2.48 |
| Wandy | 1176.0 | 4.07/1.35 | 2.38 |
Let's keep going (career)...
| Name | H/9 | HR/9 | WAR |
| Buehrle | 9.5 | 1.0 | 46.6 |
| Wandy | 8.9 | 1.0 | 10.2 |
How about the last three seasons?
| Name | IP | ERA/WHIP | K:BB |
| Buehrle | 629 | 3.91/1.32 | 2.25 |
| Wandy | 591.2 | 3.36/1.28 | 2.69 |
More 2009-11:
| Name | H/9 | HR/9 | WAR |
| Buehrle | 9.9 | 0.9 | 12.1 |
| Wandy | 8.5 | 0.9 | 10.1 |
The point is, for the past three years, Wandy and Buehrle have been two very similar pitchers. Buehrle is getting a deal that pays $14.5m for the next four years, while the team that trades for Wandy is getting a similar pitcher for $12m/year for the next three years.
Ultimately, Buehrle's deal is going to skyrocket Wilson's asking price, which means that the team that wants Wandy is going to deal with a franchise motivated to move him, with a friendlier contract than expected 20 minutes ago.
Wait, was I right?
Yesterday, Astros County asked, "There has to be a match with the Indians and Astros for Carlos Lee, right?"
And Jon Paul Morosi says yes. Sort of. Of Lee, whom Morosi says the Astros will pay half his contract:
The Indians are a fit, but wary of cost.
Well hell! If the Astros are going to pay $9.25m for Lee to not play for them, they might as well pay $10-11m.
Also, Morosi says Wandy won't move until Wilson, Buehrle, and perhaps Gio Gonzalez find a home.
And Jon Paul Morosi says yes. Sort of. Of Lee, whom Morosi says the Astros will pay half his contract:
The Indians are a fit, but wary of cost.
Well hell! If the Astros are going to pay $9.25m for Lee to not play for them, they might as well pay $10-11m.
Also, Morosi says Wandy won't move until Wilson, Buehrle, and perhaps Gio Gonzalez find a home.
A whole $100!
Hunter Pence and Chick-Fil-A have "teamed-up" to donate $100 (!!!!!) for the Holiday Food Drive at Cypress Assistance Ministries. If you bid on lunch at Chick-Fil-A with Hunter Pence (starting at $250), you get one combo meal and a dessert (no asking for more). But at least you can bring Phillies stuff for Pence to sign...
SOMEONE IS INTERESTED IN BRETT MYERS
It's not as exciting as someone being interested in Carlos Lee, but the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo just tweeted:
Houston has fielded interest by a few teams on Brett Myers but need to pick up some money.
Houston has fielded interest by a few teams on Brett Myers but need to pick up some money.
Astros eyeing Dan Jennings
The Astros are looking at Marlins exec Dan Jennings, but Heyman says Florida might not let him go.
Rosenthal and Morosi said last week that the Orioles asked the Marlins for permission to hire him, and Jeffrey Loria - sweetheart that he is - said no.
Rosenthal and Morosi said last week that the Orioles asked the Marlins for permission to hire him, and Jeffrey Loria - sweetheart that he is - said no.
GM Search Update: What We Know
Here is a recap of what we know so far regarding the GM Search, as of 8:22am Central Time, on December 7.
Interviewed
Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo
Dodgers Assistant GM Logan White
St. Louis' VP of Player Procurement Jeff Luhnow
Colorado Assistant GM Bill Geivett
"Candidates"
Cincinnati's Scott Nethery
Thanks, But No Thanks
Andrew Friedman
Texas' Thad Levine
Chicago's Rick Hahn & MLB's Kim Ng
Interviewed
Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo
Dodgers Assistant GM Logan White
St. Louis' VP of Player Procurement Jeff Luhnow
Colorado Assistant GM Bill Geivett
"Candidates"
Cincinnati's Scott Nethery
Thanks, But No Thanks
Andrew Friedman
Texas' Thad Levine
Chicago's Rick Hahn & MLB's Kim Ng
Morning Update
*Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo interviewed for the GM position.
*So did Dodgers Assistant GM Logan White. White interviewed in 2007, when the Astros decided to hire Ed Wade.
*The Tigers were interested in trading for Wandy Rodriguez, but aren't happy with the price tag.
They were approached at some point with the idea of trading for Houston's Wandy Rodriguez, according to sources, but while there was some limited interest, the idea died quickly.
*The Marlins, however/of course, are interested in trading for Wandy. They seem to be more interested in Gio Gonzalez, but it's likely that Wandy wouldn't cost as much. But since the Marlins are printing money underneath their new stadium, it may not matter.
*So did Dodgers Assistant GM Logan White. White interviewed in 2007, when the Astros decided to hire Ed Wade.
*The Tigers were interested in trading for Wandy Rodriguez, but aren't happy with the price tag.
They were approached at some point with the idea of trading for Houston's Wandy Rodriguez, according to sources, but while there was some limited interest, the idea died quickly.
*The Marlins, however/of course, are interested in trading for Wandy. They seem to be more interested in Gio Gonzalez, but it's likely that Wandy wouldn't cost as much. But since the Marlins are printing money underneath their new stadium, it may not matter.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
There has to be a match here, right?
Total speculation here, but Hardball Talk has a report that the Indians are looking for:
With the price tags for Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham proving high, the Indians are looking to trade for a right-handed hitter to help at first base and/or in the outfield.
Alright. Michael Cuddyer was apparently offered a three-year $25m deal. Willingham is also looking for a three-year deal.
Hey. Wait. Perhaps they'd be interested in Carlos Lee, who "plays" first base and/or outfield. And can be had for half of his 2012 salary - or about $9.5m - but at one year.
The Indians are said to be interested in dealing from their bullpen, which I'm not sure matches up with the Astros' needs, but it's a starting point...
With the price tags for Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham proving high, the Indians are looking to trade for a right-handed hitter to help at first base and/or in the outfield.
Alright. Michael Cuddyer was apparently offered a three-year $25m deal. Willingham is also looking for a three-year deal.
Hey. Wait. Perhaps they'd be interested in Carlos Lee, who "plays" first base and/or outfield. And can be had for half of his 2012 salary - or about $9.5m - but at one year.
The Indians are said to be interested in dealing from their bullpen, which I'm not sure matches up with the Astros' needs, but it's a starting point...
Sporting News: Best-case scenario for Astros fans is to simply remember them
Jeebus, it's like the media is already building a Tomb of the Unknown Franchise for 2012. The Sporting News had this to say about the Astros:
The rebuilding could continue this offseason if the Astros can find a new GM to coax someone into taking first baseman Carlos Lee and/or lefthander Wandy Rodriguez off the books.
About the best Astros fans can hope for is that the team lands some prospects who can spark their interest enough to not completely forget about this team.
The rebuilding could continue this offseason if the Astros can find a new GM to coax someone into taking first baseman Carlos Lee and/or lefthander Wandy Rodriguez off the books.
About the best Astros fans can hope for is that the team lands some prospects who can spark their interest enough to not completely forget about this team.
Notes from Brad Mills' press conference
Alyson Footer is giving live updates on Twitter of Brad Mills' press conference. Among the things she shares with us:
-2012 Opening Day 1B is Carlos Lee, unless Brett Wallace beats him out of a job in Spring Training.
-Jimmy Paredes' transition from 3B to SS is "unlikely."
Mills says, via Stephen Goff that Angel Sanchez, Brian Bixler, and Anderson Hernandez are your internal candidates for SS1.
Zach Levine says that the bullpen coach position won't be in place until after the GM is hired.
-2012 Opening Day 1B is Carlos Lee, unless Brett Wallace beats him out of a job in Spring Training.
-Jimmy Paredes' transition from 3B to SS is "unlikely."
Mills says, via Stephen Goff that Angel Sanchez, Brian Bixler, and Anderson Hernandez are your internal candidates for SS1.
Zach Levine says that the bullpen coach position won't be in place until after the GM is hired.
I have no idea how to feel about Brad Mills
Brad Mills is somewhat in limbo, as everyone who hired him is now gone. This Steve Campbell article provides some backstory to Brad Mills.
On Mills getting a computer:
He learned how to file scouting reports on line, how to do spreadsheets. Along the way, Mills became increasingly comfortable with statistics and analysis. He began compiling his own database, which he has married with an affinity for video study. Before making out a lineup, Mills would make it his business to know if Clint Barmes was 13-for-27 against that day’s starting pitcher (Paul Maholm) or 1-for-18 (Matt Cain). He would look for the matchups that set up best for his relievers, though such nuances don’t tend to pay as many dividends for teams that are going 56-106 and shedding payroll along the way.
On one hand, awesome. Mills played matchups. On the other hand, I'm worried that the County Clerk would do about the same amount of statistical preparation for a game preview than Mills did in filling out a lineup.
Basically, my feelings are exactly 50/50 on Brad Mills. He seems like a nice guy. Campbell did bring up the "Why did Jason Michaels get so many ABs" question (click the link), and for that reason alone I feel as though he is unfit to use Baseball-Reference.
How does this make you feel?
On Mills getting a computer:
He learned how to file scouting reports on line, how to do spreadsheets. Along the way, Mills became increasingly comfortable with statistics and analysis. He began compiling his own database, which he has married with an affinity for video study. Before making out a lineup, Mills would make it his business to know if Clint Barmes was 13-for-27 against that day’s starting pitcher (Paul Maholm) or 1-for-18 (Matt Cain). He would look for the matchups that set up best for his relievers, though such nuances don’t tend to pay as many dividends for teams that are going 56-106 and shedding payroll along the way.
On one hand, awesome. Mills played matchups. On the other hand, I'm worried that the County Clerk would do about the same amount of statistical preparation for a game preview than Mills did in filling out a lineup.
Basically, my feelings are exactly 50/50 on Brad Mills. He seems like a nice guy. Campbell did bring up the "Why did Jason Michaels get so many ABs" question (click the link), and for that reason alone I feel as though he is unfit to use Baseball-Reference.
How does this make you feel?
Jeff Keppinger likely to be non-tendered
Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants will likely let Jeff Keppinger walk, without offering him arbitration.
Keppinger played 10 games in 2010 at SS for the Astros. But before you start getting ideas, heed Baggarly's warning (not that you didn't see this with your own eyes):
He isn’t a utility infielder and his value is rather narrow. There’s a reason he hasn’t played much if any shortstop since 2008 with the Reds. He looked pretty wooden at second base, too.
Keppinger played 10 games in 2010 at SS for the Astros. But before you start getting ideas, heed Baggarly's warning (not that you didn't see this with your own eyes):
He isn’t a utility infielder and his value is rather narrow. There’s a reason he hasn’t played much if any shortstop since 2008 with the Reds. He looked pretty wooden at second base, too.
Astros trying to get Red Sox to take Wandy, Myers
Gordon Edes says that the Astros are trying to get the Red Sox all excited about Wandy and Brett Myers:
The Astros have tried to interest the Red Sox in pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, but have been told the price for both s too high. Houston would probably take some money back on Myers, who is due to make $11 million in 2012.
I'm guessing that Brett Myers wouldn't be overly thrilled about playing at Fenway since, you know, he reportedly said, "I don't ever want to pitch in Boston again."
The Astros have tried to interest the Red Sox in pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, but have been told the price for both s too high. Houston would probably take some money back on Myers, who is due to make $11 million in 2012.
I'm guessing that Brett Myers wouldn't be overly thrilled about playing at Fenway since, you know, he reportedly said, "I don't ever want to pitch in Boston again."
Morning Update
Here's what you missed while I was watching Vampire Diaries on Netflix yesterday evening and overnight:
Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo interviewed for the GM position last night.
The Astros will pay half of Carlos Lee and Brett Myers' salary in a deal, but want a prospective team to take all of Wandy's salary.
Andrew Friedman's rejection of the Astros "is in no way a reflection on the Houston organization," say the Rays.
Alyson Footer explains, in detail, what the Astros are looking for in a GM.
Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo interviewed for the GM position last night.
The Astros will pay half of Carlos Lee and Brett Myers' salary in a deal, but want a prospective team to take all of Wandy's salary.
Andrew Friedman's rejection of the Astros "is in no way a reflection on the Houston organization," say the Rays.
Alyson Footer explains, in detail, what the Astros are looking for in a GM.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Joel Sherman can confirm Friedman out
The New York Post's Joel Sherman is confirming that Friedman has turned down the Astros.
So I guess that means Johnny Damon is, in fact, full of crap.
I have to admit, I felt a little flutter in my heart when Friedman hadn't said yea or nay about coming to the Astros. Now it's all black, all fear, all anguish.
So I guess that means Johnny Damon is, in fact, full of crap.
I have to admit, I felt a little flutter in my heart when Friedman hadn't said yea or nay about coming to the Astros. Now it's all black, all fear, all anguish.
David Gottfried is your guy...for now
While the Astros figure out what Plan Q is for the GM, Jayson Stark reports that interim GM David Gottfried can pull the trigger on any deal that may go down this week.
Carlos Lee update
Jayson Stark checks in with an update on Carlos Lee, who says that there are mostly East Coast teams on Lee's no-trade list. However, and it's a big "however," Carlos is apparently willing to go to the Orioles who, surprise!, need a DH.
Matchmaker, matchmaker, make me a match!
Matchmaker, matchmaker, make me a match!
Andrew Friedman already ruled out Houston?
The LA Times' Bill Shaikin tweeted at 12:33pm:
Hearing #Rays GM already has decided against taking Astros job.
This is not good news for the Whooping Cranes, who now may find themselves without Friedman, and turned down by Thad Levine, Kim Ng, and Rick Hahn. Maybe it was inevitable, and we shouldn't be surprised, but it's still - for now - disappointing.
Hearing #Rays GM already has decided against taking Astros job.
This is not good news for the Whooping Cranes, who now may find themselves without Friedman, and turned down by Thad Levine, Kim Ng, and Rick Hahn. Maybe it was inevitable, and we shouldn't be surprised, but it's still - for now - disappointing.
Andrew Friedman non-update
Jon Heyman just tweeted an Andrew Friedman non-update:
Most see only a slim chance friedman takes astros gm job. Said to love rays people and own points in team.
Who are you going to believe? A beer-ed up Johnny Damon, or a (presumably-)sober Jon Heyman?
Most see only a slim chance friedman takes astros gm job. Said to love rays people and own points in team.
Who are you going to believe? A beer-ed up Johnny Damon, or a (presumably-)sober Jon Heyman?
Justice to MLB.com
We have our first big move of the Winter Meetings! Mark Berman says that Richard Justice has left the Chronicle after 11 years to be a columnist at MLB.com.
Johnny Damon is either completely full of crap, or Andrew Friedman is in play
And honestly, it could go either way. Maybe you saw this, but there was a story in the Boston Globe yesterday with a weird note from Johnny Damon on his future:
“I haven’t even talked to them just because our GM [Andrew Friedman] is a free agent. He’s not going to sign me and then leave. If he goes to Houston, his hometown, he’s going to try and bring me along with him. That’s where my waiting game is.
Again, your options are:
1. Johnny Damon is full of crap.
2. Johnny Damon is telling the truth (and, with a case of El Presidente "securely strapped to a cart," he may very well be) and Andrew Friedman is seriously considering to the point of telling Johnny Damon that he may have a job in Houston.
“I haven’t even talked to them just because our GM [Andrew Friedman] is a free agent. He’s not going to sign me and then leave. If he goes to Houston, his hometown, he’s going to try and bring me along with him. That’s where my waiting game is.
Again, your options are:
1. Johnny Damon is full of crap.
2. Johnny Damon is telling the truth (and, with a case of El Presidente "securely strapped to a cart," he may very well be) and Andrew Friedman is seriously considering to the point of telling Johnny Damon that he may have a job in Houston.
What the Astros expect from their three remaining trade pieces
Jon Heyman tweeted about what the Astros are planning/expecting from the Winter Meetings, should any deals be made:
-They're willing to eat most of Carlos Lee's contract.
-They expect to get a good return from Wandy and Myers.
If you're wondering how much money the Astros should be eating to get rid of Carlos Lee, you're thinking about it wrong. It's not your money, and saving $3m (this means the Astros would still pay Carlos Lee $16m to not play for them) is better than wasting $19m. Still, how much would you expect the Astros to take on, should they be able to find a taker for Lee?
-They're willing to eat most of Carlos Lee's contract.
-They expect to get a good return from Wandy and Myers.
If you're wondering how much money the Astros should be eating to get rid of Carlos Lee, you're thinking about it wrong. It's not your money, and saving $3m (this means the Astros would still pay Carlos Lee $16m to not play for them) is better than wasting $19m. Still, how much would you expect the Astros to take on, should they be able to find a taker for Lee?
Short list of GM possibilities
It's time to start building sourced lists of potential GMs. Any speculation is by each individual writer. Here we go:
12/5
Friedman out
12/5
Scott Nethery (CIN)
12/3
Jeff Luhnow (STL) (Interviewed)
11/30:
Levine out
Bill Geivett (COL) (Interviewed)
(Via Evan Grant):
Thad Levine (Texas)
A.J. Preller (Texas)
Both have been integral in the Rangers' rise to two-time defending AL champs. Both endorsed the club tear-down from the top that took place with the trades of Mark Teixeira, Kenny Lofton and Eric Gagne in 2007.
(Via Rosenthal and Morosi):
Gerry Hunsicker (TB) - The club reached the postseason in five of his nine seasons, and sources say he would embrace a return to Houston.
Andrew Friedman (TB) - Friedman's enthusiasm for the Astros' job is less certain.
Thad Levine (TEX)
A.J. Preller (TEX)
Dan Jennings (Florida/Miami) - Was denied permission to interview for the Orioles’ GM vacancy by Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.
(Via McTaggart):
All of the above, and then...
Peter Woodfork (MLB) - He's a Theo Epstein disciple, having worked under him with the Boston Red Sox.
J.J. Piccolo (KC) - As the assistant GM of the Royals who oversees both the player development and scouting departments, Picollo has plenty of experience listening to a variety of opinions.
Jeff Kingston (SEA) - Kingston worked with Kevin Towers in San Diego before being hired away by the Mariners.
Billy Eppler (NYY) - Eppler interviewed recently for the Angels' vacant opening and is considered a solid candidate to be a GM in the future.
Logan White (LAD) - White's in charge of amateur and international scouting for GM Ned Colletti. In 2007, he interviewed with the Astros before Wade was hired.
De Jon Watson (LAD) - The head of player development with the Dodgers, Watson interviewed for the Orioles' vacant GM position in October before withdrawing.
Rick Hahn (CWS) - Hahn is a former sports agent who used to work for Jeff Moorad.
Al Avila (DET) - The assistant GM of the Tigers, Avila is more of a veteran scout, in the mold of Colletti, but he has a very good track record.
Allard Baird (BOS) - If the Astros find themselves looking for a veteran GM not named Hunsicker, Baird could be their guy.
Obviously the quotes for each candidate are not the entire quotes, and you'll just need to click the source link for the full version.
12/5
Friedman out
12/5
Scott Nethery (CIN)
12/3
Jeff Luhnow (STL) (Interviewed)
11/30:
Levine out
Bill Geivett (COL) (Interviewed)
(Via Evan Grant):
A.J. Preller (Texas)
Both have been integral in the Rangers' rise to two-time defending AL champs. Both endorsed the club tear-down from the top that took place with the trades of Mark Teixeira, Kenny Lofton and Eric Gagne in 2007.
(Via Rosenthal and Morosi):
Gerry Hunsicker (TB) - The club reached the postseason in five of his nine seasons, and sources say he would embrace a return to Houston.
A.J. Preller (TEX)
Dan Jennings (Florida/Miami) - Was denied permission to interview for the Orioles’ GM vacancy by Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.
(Via McTaggart):
All of the above, and then...
Peter Woodfork (MLB) - He's a Theo Epstein disciple, having worked under him with the Boston Red Sox.
J.J. Piccolo (KC) - As the assistant GM of the Royals who oversees both the player development and scouting departments, Picollo has plenty of experience listening to a variety of opinions.
Jeff Kingston (SEA) - Kingston worked with Kevin Towers in San Diego before being hired away by the Mariners.
Billy Eppler (NYY) - Eppler interviewed recently for the Angels' vacant opening and is considered a solid candidate to be a GM in the future.
Logan White (LAD) - White's in charge of amateur and international scouting for GM Ned Colletti. In 2007, he interviewed with the Astros before Wade was hired.
De Jon Watson (LAD) - The head of player development with the Dodgers, Watson interviewed for the Orioles' vacant GM position in October before withdrawing.
Al Avila (DET) - The assistant GM of the Tigers, Avila is more of a veteran scout, in the mold of Colletti, but he has a very good track record.
Allard Baird (BOS) - If the Astros find themselves looking for a veteran GM not named Hunsicker, Baird could be their guy.
Obviously the quotes for each candidate are not the entire quotes, and you'll just need to click the source link for the full version.
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