Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Would you re-sign Roy?

So apparently Roy Oswalt has been convinced that a multi-year deal isn't a great idea right now, and he would be open to a one-year deal. The question is: Would he make sense for the Astros?

Answer (for me, anyway): Yes. But only if it's on the condition that Wandy or Myers is traded. Why? Let's examine, shall we?

Yeah. Oswalt gets hurt. He has a back like my grandmother, and he'll be 34 in 2012. On the surface, he doesn't exactly fit what the Astros are trying to do. But if his goal is to re-establish value, then he really only needs to put together a solid half-season in Houston.

Let's say - as a pre-condition - that the Astros trade Wandy and/or Myers. Trading one would net $6-7 million in 2012 (because the recipient certainly won't be paying for the whole player) and prospects, depending on the one who is traded. If the Astros offer $10 million to Roy on a one-year contract (even with pitching only 139IP in 2011, FanGraphs listed his value at $11m), he can set himself up for a longer deal in 2012 and beyond if he pitches well enough to get traded at the deadline, ideally bringing back more prospects (or one good one).

By doing so, the Astros would be on the hook for about $6m of that $10m, which trading Wandy/Myers would off-set.

And if Roy is looking for the next contract, it makes sense to return to the scene where he enjoyed quite a lot of success. At Minute Maid Park, Roy has a career 2.92 ERA/1.12 WHIP. His 4.05 K:BB ratio is the second-highest rate among stadiums where he has made more than ten starts.

Maybe Roy isn't interested in coming back to Houston. Maybe Houston burned its bridge in 2010. But maybe the Astros could use the oft-whispered Veteran Presence on the rotation should a trade happen to allow it. There is likely nothing to it. But it is December 20. And we can't keep writing about how much we love Jeff Luhnow, or Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame chances, forever. We need that space in January.


5 comments:

Andrew said...

I feel like if we sign him with the intent to flip him to a contender in July then we loose a lot of barganing ability. Teams know we have to unload him and wont offer much in return.

Terence said...

We have plenty of young arms that are good enough/close enough that we can play for the minimum, while they receive seasoning and development. If we can't pay $6M for Barmes, I sure don't want to pay $6M for Oswalt.

OremLK said...

No. Ideally, in our current situation, we really shouldn't be giving any roster spots to any player over the age of 30. We may not have much of a choice when it comes to Lee, Myers, Lyon, but we certainly shouldn't add to the problem.

Astros County said...

These are all extremely valid arguments.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure what I would do if I was management but I wonder what the effect in ticket sales would be in bringing an old fan favorite back. Let's be honest, until the team can get back to real success on the field, the marketing spin is going to be incredibly important, especially for a first year ownership. Oswalt could give some connection to the recent history of the team while the developing players could give hope for the future.