Hold My Beer: Tony Massarotti

I thought I was prepared for HOF season. What is HOF season? It's what makes Jesus not 100% the reason for the season. HOF season makes me want to dropkick the Salvation Army change buckets. HOF season makes me want to go take a dump on Toys For Tots dropoffs. Because HOF voters are, in small numbers, illogical. They make their head do their heart's bidding. I don't want to won't do this in every case, but because Boston's own Tony Massarotti published his ballot so early, he gets the horns. Will it give him page views that end up rewarding his own moral two-step? Probably, but if I didn't include the link for you to verify, you wouldn't believe that an adult human could make the logical jumps Massarotti makes. Let's just do this and get it over with.

I'm a yes on Manny Ramirez. I'm a yes on Pudge Rodriguez. I'm a no on Vladimir Guerrero.

Let's table the Pudge discussion for a minute. In 2302 games, Manny hit .312/.411/.585 with 555 homers and a 153 wRC+. Vlad hit .318/.379/.553 with 449 homers and a 136 wRC+. Vlad posted a 54.3 fWAR, Manny - with two more seasons than Vlad - posted a 66.3 fWAR. Most of this has to do with Manny's offensive numbers overshadowing Vlad's, but Manny was a far worse defensive outfielder than Vlad. How bad? FanGraphs has Vlad's defensive rating at -115.0 (which, given Vlad's arm, I admittedly do not understand) but Manny's defensive rating at -276.6. From 1995-2011, roughly the bulk of both outfielders' careers, Andrew Jones was considered by FanGraphs to be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. His rating was 282.6. Now look back at Manny's -276.6 rating. As good as Andrew Jones was with the glove, Manny Ramirez was the baseball Lennie to Andrew Jones' George.

Applying the FanGraphs filter to 328 outfielders who played between 1995-2011, Manny had the absolute worst defensive rating in baseball. Vlad had the 20th-worst. That said, between this time frame, Manny's 620.8 offensive rating is far better than Vlad's 370.2.

Now let me try to explain why.

What's there to explain? If you're looking simply at numbers, Manny Ramirez was a better player than Vladimir Guerrero. Now I understand that - in order to rack up such poor defensive numbers in this time frame - your offense had to justify your statistical liability in the field. If you weren't phenomenal offensively, there was no reason to keep you on the team. Both were great players, Manny was better. What's there to explain?

Steroids were a part of the game, folks - and a bigger part than anyone really wants to admit. Quite simply, there is no way to know who used and who didn't. What we're left with is a guess, plain and simple, no matter what anybody says. 

Superficially this works. What if a guy hit 50 homers in 149 games in 1996, and 159 homers in the other 1685 games in his career. Whispers. Could be an explanation. Could be a prescription. But what if one of your Yes votes actually says Yeah, He Used PEDs and was suspended *twice* for the offense?

And what if one of your No (Vlad) votes hasn't admitted to or ever been found guilty of ridin' dirty, beyond the suspicion of having played in the part of the timeline of baseball history where some players did, in fact, ride dirty?

Just by looking at the years at which Vlad/Manny were at their peak, your "Steroid Era" alarm bells are likely already ringing. But a selective Steroid Era Defense doesn't work. To say it's a "Steroid Era" indicates that the use of steroids was rampant. Otherwise the select few who were deemed to be Dirty would be ostracized from the game's history, not an entire generation of players. So when Massarotti says there's "no way to know who used and who didn't," it's true for a number of players. But not Manny. That's not a "guess," as Massarotti puts it. That's a simple admission. A fact, confirmed by the man(ny) himself.

If you were to ask voters whether they think (emphasis his) Mike Piazza used steroids, I bet most of them would say yes. But the large majority of them voted for Piazza last year, anyway, and that just seems kind of dumb. 

So there are voters who "think" Piazza used steroids, and he was still inducted last summer. "Most" of those voters still said he was one of the greatest players of all time. Piazza was a catcher. Hey Ivan Rodriguez was a catcher, too, and he was implicated in Jose Canseco's seemingly factual account of the Steroid Era. How do you explain that? But Piazza never admitted to using any form of PEDs. Manny did. Yet Massarotti voted for Manny and not Piazza. How do I know this? Because...

Me? I didn't vote for Piazza

That confirms that. But why not vote for Piazza last year, and vote for Manny this year, exactly?

Mostly because I regard (Piazza) as product (sic) of the era. 

Nice grammar, professional writer, but whatever. More importantly: Which era? The one where you don't know who did and who didn't use PEDs, unless they - like Manny - basically admit they did, and then vote for that guy, anyway? Or the era in which there are players who denied ever having used, or were never implicated in using, steroids beyond the so-called whispers...but you don't believe them.

I feel the same of Jeff Bagwell.

Here we go.

If that sounds terribly vague, it is, and I don't blame you for rolling your eyes or pounding your fist. 

Fists. Plural.

The real problem with the steroid era was that it tainted everyone, which makes voting a damn-near impossibility.

But you, Tony Massarotti, are more than willing to vote against Piazza last year, for Manny this year, against Vlad this year, against Bagwell this year (and years previous). You, Tony Massarotti, in a list of Manny, Vlad, Piazza, and Bagwell, will happily vote for the one guy who admitted to using and against the guys who said they didn't. Your "impossibility" is now invalid.

The numbers don't mean anything anymore. 

How about the players of the game you are paid to cover? What's their word worth? Or do you just punish the players whom you do not believe?

(Rafael Palmeiro has both 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, and he's not in.)

Rafael Palmeiro tested positive for stanozolol after wagging his finger and lying to Congress about it. That's why he's not in, Tony.

And the simple truth is that they shouldn't because baseball players, owners, executives, media and fans all contributed to the pollution of the game. 

Oh yes. The "We're All To Blame, So I'll Decide Who's *Really* At Fault" defense. Also: Tony Massarotti has covered the Red Sox - for the Boston Herald and Boston Globe, except for a short break, since 1994, or for the entirety of Ramirez's Red Sox career - And yet he voted for Manny Ramirez. That's notable for a variety of reasons.

So here's what I've been left with: I vote with my eyes and my gut. 

Ah yes. The Neighbor-metrics of baseball media. I'm going to trademark "Neighbor-metrics."

If, as a result, you find my votes, inconsistent (sic), so be it. My job is to tell you what I think and feel - based on my ballot - so that's I do (also, sic).

This is the equivalent of the "I know I'm being unreasonable, so I'll tell you I'm being unreasonable, thus you can't hurt my feelings if you tell me I'm being unreasonable." But with worse grammar.

Which brings me to Manny, who will almost certainly be snubbed by a majority of the voters because of multiple steroids violations and suspensions.

Hold the phone. Manny was suspended for "multiple" steroids violations and Massarotti votes for him. Vlad, Piazza, and Bagwell were - stay with me - *not* suspended or found guilty of even a single steroid violation and he doesn't vote for any of them. Yet Massarotti acknowledges that most of the voting members of the BBWAA will disagree with him precisely for the violations of the criteria that Massarotti acknowledges as valid, yet ignores.

Here's what I can tell you about Manny: he was perhaps the most gifted right-handed hitter I have ever seen, right there with Edgar Martinez (whom I also vote for). 

Okay. So Massarotti has only ever covered American League teams. He's not going to vote for Piazza and Bagwell - National League guys - and Vlad, for some reason. But Edgar is in, so we can ignore Massarotti's "Defense" part of the Hall of Fame argument.

From 1994 through 2000, Ramirez was a centerpiece of the Cleveland Indians lineup that led the American league (sic) in runs scored. From 2001 through the middle of 2008, he was then a centerpiece of the Boston lineup that produced more runs than any AL team other than the New York Yankees. Add it all up and get the single, best middle-of-the-order bat in the American League over what amounted to a 15-year period, and there is no more valuable skill in the game. 

Massarotti is happy to admit that defense and baserunning doesn't matter. Only what you do with the bat matters, regardless of how clean/unclean said player actually was. Get suspended for PEDs - twice! - it doesn't matter. Manny was good, really good. Other players - who weren't ever actually accused of using PEDs - were not as good as the player who was actually suspended for using PEDs, but Massarotti watched almost every day, are not Hall of Famers. Manny is. Got it.

Was (Manny) a good fielder? No. Was he a good baserunner? No. But Manny was so elite in the batter's box that nothing else really matters, and I'm not basing that on his individual numbers. I'm basing it on his swing, his plate disciple, his situational awareness in the batter's box. Manny was a freak, plain and simple, and that was true whether he used or not.

Let me get this straight: Massarotti voted for Manny Ramirez, a great one-dimensional player in an era when offense was so highly valued that it encouraged the use of PEDs - an offense for which Manny was suspended multiple times. But in 2016 he did not vote for Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, or even Mark McGwire. McGwire is another player, like Manny, who provided a lot of offense and not much else, also accused of PEDs and declined to "talk about the past" before Congress.

In 2014 Massarotti voted for Maddux, Glavine, and Frank Thomas - all of whom earned Induction. He also voted for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. There's no rhyme or reason.

Guerrero? He's close, but he's not quite there. He obviously had tremendous hand-eye coordination, but he lacked plate discipline. 

Vladimir Guerrero struck out in 10.9% of his plate appearances. Manny Ramirez struck out in 18.5% of his plate appearances. But yeah, Manny had a 5.5% edge in career BB% so that means Vlad "lacked plate discipline." Sure.

(Vlad) was fast, for sure, but he was not a great baserunner. And for all the talk about Guerrero's arm, he was not an especially good defensive player. (Ramirez, for what it's worth, actually has more career assists.)

Did we not discuss this already? According to FanGraphs Manny is the worst defensive outfielder of his era. But because he played up against a green tower he could throw more guys out than Vlad did, in Montreal and Anaheim, he's a Hall of Famer and Vlad isn't? This is a terrible, illogical, uneven-handed argument.

So where's my line for induction? Apparently, somewhere between Guerrero and Ramirez.

Two players diverged in a wood, and Tony Massarotti? He chose the one who - despite the multiple failed PED tests - he saw the most often.

As for Pudge, he is a most interesting case.

"Interesting" because Massarotti is about to totally contradict himself.

Between his late-20s and mid-30s, when steroid testing was implemented, his slugging percentage dropped nearly 250 points. (Given the simultaneous changes in his body, that is hard to ignore).

And yet Massarotti is perfectly willing to ignore it as he already voted for Pudge. He'll vote for Manny, as well, whose slugging percentage did not drop presumably because he continued using PEDs ("presumably" because he was twice suspended for PEDs). This is moral gymnastics.

(Pudge) was never disciplined as a hitter. And yet, because he was simply dominant as a defensive player (13 Gold Gloves, including 10 in a row), Rodriguez remained a centerpiece of playoff contenders late into his career, making him of one of the most well-rounded players ever to field his position. All things considered, he was even a good baserunner. 

There are two catchers between 1991-2010 (The Pudge Era) who had a 60+ fWAR: Pudge (68.7 fWAR) and Mike Piazza (63.7 fWAR). According to FanGraphs, Piazza was a far better offensive catcher and Pudge was a far better defensive catcher. Pudge's baserunning rating was -24.9 (Piazza was slightly worse) so that's a pretty terrible qualifier for a shady argument about stats. But Pudge was linked to PEDs while Massarotti has his concerns about Piazza's backne. Let's also not forget that Pudge was a catcher in the AL - who regularly visited Boston, Massarotti's beat - while Piazza travelled in National League circles.

So I guess Massarott's concern with PEDs extends only to what players can do defensively: otherwise Pudge - linked to steroids - gets a vote and Piazza - whispers - doesn't. Only that doesn't work for the Manny/Vlad argument, Vlad - not linked to steroids - was better defensively while Manny - suspended twice for PEDs - was better with the bat. Oh, and if he saw them for more than one inter-league series.

For me, that's good enough. 

Tony Massarotti's "good enough" is terrible logic. This is what Jeff Bagwell is up against: straw men and sight bias.

Saturday Morning Hot Links

Here are the links while we take a little time this weekend to see our families before baseball season starts and we forget they exist.

*The Astros ranked 5th in Baseball Prospectus' Organizational Rankings for 2014 - up from #9 in 2013. Houston ranked behind (in order) Minnesota, Chicago (Cubs), Pittsburgh, and Boston.

*The Astros, Rockets, and Comcast have agreed to allow Judge Lynn Hughes mediate a potential resolution in the CSN Houston bankruptcy case.

*Nolan Ryan doesn't think former Rangers owner Tom Hicks properly prepared GM Jon Daniels for how Nolan would fit in to the organization. More importantly, however, Nolan would like to see Round Rock rejoin the Astros' affiliates.

*In an expansive article by Evan Drellich (which is worth reading, bookmarking, and reading again), Jason Castro promises, "We're not going to lose 100 games."

*Bo Porter thinks Alex Presley fits in perfectly on the Astros.

*Pudge Rodriguez - who apparently has known Carlos Correa for a long time - predicts greatness for SS1.

*Bo Porter called the 2013 Goatpen the "short end of the stick."

The Astros might cut Quintero to sign Pudge

Oh Jon Heyman, how you titillate us. Heyman tweeted:

Heard houston might not keep quintero. #pudge a possibility.

Well, wouldn't that be interesting, and I have no idea what to make of this. We're talking about backup catchers here, right? Because at some point Castro will be healthy (ideally). But Quintero and the Astros avoided arbitration with a $1m+ deal, which isn't necessarily guaranteed. Will Pudge sign for that amount? Will he be better at nurturing young Jason Castro? Does it even matter, at all?

They call him Mr. Glass

Jason Castro is out for three months following surgery to remove the sesamoid bone in his left food.



Jon Heyman (I know) already says that the Astros and Pudge - yes, that Pudge, could be a fit. Although I really hope not.

Regardless, the timetable for Castro's return should put him back right around the middle of Spring Training. Get ready for Quintero Time (who signed a 1-year deal worth $1m + bonuses).

Jeebus - the Astros might want Pudge back?

MASN's Phil Wood is reporting from Spring Training, and has an interesting note about the Mets/Nationals game for today:

An Astros' scout is here - they're still interested in finding a catcher - and as I said last week, I think they're more interested in Pudge Rodriguez than Jesus Flores. They don't necessarily want another young catching prospect - they don't have much to offer in exchange. Flores, whose throwing arm is still not 100%, would be considered more of a project. Their priority is a catch-and-throw guy, and any offense would be a bonus.

Oh, no.

An NL Talent Evaluator speaks about C1

It turns out that an NL Talent Evaluator sees an opening at C1 in Houston. And I bet he didn't have to evaluate too terribly hard to figure that out. Still, let's see what we see, in reference to Mets catcher Omir Santos:

"Either he will be beaten out by Josh Thole or they will beat out the Mariners or possibly the Astros for Rod Barajas. Those are the only two clubs that have any type of opening at the position."

I don't see the Astros bringing in Barajas. They tried the Let's-Bring-In-An-Older-Catcher thing last year, and it didn't work out - though trading him was the best part of signing him, in that now the Astros have Nevarez and Vallejo.

Still, and I could be way off because I didn't think the Astros would sign Pudge, either, I just don't think the Astros will pay Barajas any more than $2.13/hour + tips.

A long note on Plate Discipline

As I feel like I'm slacking off a little bit, I thought I'd try to do something to redeem myself by taking a significant amount of time to look at the plate discipline of our chosen team. All data is courtesy of FanGraphs.

A note: I set the minimum PAs at 200. This way we don't take Chris Johnson, who was swinging just to get a little exercise, out of context.

A Glossary:
O-Swing%: Percentage of pitches outside the strike zone resulting in a swing
O-Contact%: Pitch% outside of the strike zone in which a batter made contact
Z-Swing%: Pitch% inside the strike zone resulting in a swing
Z-Swing%: Pitch% inside the strike zone resulting in contact
Swing%: Total percentage of pitches resulting in a swing
Contact%: Total percentage of pitches in which a batter made contact

Name	O-Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Swing%	Z-Contact%	Swing%	Contact%
Berkman	19.9%	61.2%	68.1%	85.3%	41.8%	79.1%
Blum	28.1%	62.2%	67.7%	90.0%	46.4%	80.9%
Bourn	20.3%	56.6%	60.6%	86.5%	40.3%	78.9%
Keppinger	18.7%	82.5%	56.5%	94.1%	38.3%	91.4%
Lee	24.4%	70.7%	69.5%	93.8%	46.6%	87.7%
Matsui	28.6%	72.8%	65.1%	90.3%	46.4%	84.8%
Pence	26.6%	60.1%	70.8%	83.4%	47.9%	76.7%
Pudge	38.9%	57.8%	75.8%	85.1%	57.5%	76.0%
Tejada	32.5%	76.1%	71.9%	93.6%	52.7%	88.4%

A few things to note here:

-The two players who would swing at the highest percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone (Pudge - 38.9% and Tejada - 32.5%) are gone. And Blum, with the 4th-highest percentage, has been reduced to a utility role.
-Jeff Keppinger is incredibly selective, but we already knew that. That said, he had the highest percentage of contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.
-Hunter Pence has the lowest rate of contact on the team (76.7%)
-I didn't list it in the above table, but Lance Berkman saw the fewest percentage of pitches in the strike zone (45.4%). Next was Geoff Blum (?) (46.2%).

It's an appropriate time to list Pedro Feliz in here, and if we could, we'd put Tommy Manzella and Towles/Quintero. But we can't. Sample size is too small. So Happy Pete it is (with Blum relisted for comparative purposes):

Name	O-Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Swing%	Z-Contact%	Swing%	Contact%
Feliz	29.7%	67.1%	63.0%	92.3%	47.2%	84.8%
Blum	28.1%	62.2%	67.7%	90.0%	46.4%	80.9%

So. Feliz swings at a slightly higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, but connects more often. He also is more selective inside the strike zone than Blum, but also connects more often. Feliz also swings more often, and makes more contact. Yay.

For a note of qualification, this is just a look at plate discipline, not batting average, slugging percentage, ball placement, etc. We're just looking at who pounces on strikes, and who lays off balls. (snickering).

Thoughts?

Not even Bud Selig adheres to slot recommendations

In a rather bizarre article out of ESPN Dallas, Nolan Ryan explains that MLB has been running the Rangers since July:

Texas Rangers president Nolan Ryan, on the brink of becoming a minority owner in the club, said Tuesday that Major League Baseball continues to oversee the organization, something it's done since July.

"We were required to have any expenditure that was not budgeted for had to be approved and also any signing outside of the slot limit had to be approved," Ryan said. "There were obviously some restrictions that other clubs weren't under."

Reporter Richard Durrett:
Ryan said that MLB had to approve the Rangers' trade for Pudge Rodriguez in August and the above-slot money for first round draft pick Matt Purke. The money the Rangers offered for Purke wasn't enough to get the left-handed pitcher to sign. He will pitch for TCU this season.

Thanks for Nevarez and Vallejo, Bud! But wait. If slotting is so damn important, why did MLB approve offering Purke money over and above what MLB recommended?

What did Ed Wade give us for Christmas this year?

It's time for a little optimism. What did Easy Eddie give us for Christmas this year?

-Michael Bourn

Let's give it to Eddie. Maybe Cecil Cooper, too. God bless him/them, they stuck with Bourn in CF, and he responded with a +.150 in OPS from 2008 to 2009. Add 61 stolen bases and his first Gold Glove award, and there is reason for optimism. At least with 2/3 of the outfield.

-Bud Norris

So this whole "drafting" thing does work! The 24-year old Norris was 12-25 in his minor-league career, with a 3.67 ERA/1.32 WHIP. So to come out and go 6-3, including his debut (to which I listened) that made a 12-0 loss to the Cubs (thank you, Mike Hampton, for being so awful at Wrigley that it brought in The Troof, memorable. With Norris' spot in the rotation slotted at #3 at best, and #5 at worst, I'm actually going to keep this blog alive.

-Trading Pudge

It was a gamble. A big gamble. And yet, when Pudge hit .251 over 93 games (and it never seemed like his BA was that high), a full-fledged releasing was in order. But to turn around and spin Rodriguez for not one, but two prospects, in Matt Nevarez and Jose Vallejo was like alchemy.

-Sam Gervacio

He only pitched in 29 games in 2009, and 21IP. But 25K:8BB just warms my heart. And in those 29 games, he only allowed a run in four of those games. Drafting him as a 17-year old in 2002 is now paying off. Let's just be thankful that he wasn't traded for Tejada.

-Drew Locke

The Dodgers left him unprotected, where in two seasons with High-A Inland Empire, he had posted OPS's of .737 and .841, respectively. So the Astros selected him in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft, and Locke dominated Double-A, hitting .338/.389/.581, with 84 strikeouts in 558 PAs. He'll be in Round Rock in 2010, looking at a September Call-up (that is, if Eddie believes in them).

-Bobby Heck

Heck has had two drafts with which to work, and has seemingly turned around a farm system which Tim Purpura laid as bare as a centerfold. 2010 will bring us a top-10 pick and, if/when Valverde signs somewhere else, a sandwich pick. This will boost a team that should financially be able to compete in 2013/2014. And hope, however fleeting, is the best Christmas gift of all...

Richard Justice has thought about this, and decided to bring the pain

This is a new level we've reached here.

Drayton McLane said something last night that came off about as insincere as anything he has ever said. He was either insincere or clueless. Either way, it's not good for the Astros. He went on and on about how the Astros didn't want to trade Pudge Rodriguez and how they made the Rangers come back to them and overwhelm them with talent.

The Astros did not get overwhelmed with talent. Second baseman Jose Vallejo hasn't hit at Triple-A, but scouts do like him. The Astros got a couple of interesting prospects, nothing more. Considering the quality of their farm system, they made out OK.

Drayton's comments made it seem like he thinks the Astros are still a contender and that Pudge can still play. Who is he kidding?

Some other notes:
1. Pudge wasn't good.
2. The Astros aren't good.
3. And probably won't be good next year.
4. Carlos Lee signed a terrible contract.
5. Miguel Tejada was a terrible trade.

And then your close:
There's an open insurrection between the players and manager. There's not enough talent to contend and not enough major league-ready kids in the system to contend anytime soon.

The first step to fixing a problem is acknowledging a problem, but only Drayton can do that.

McTaggart: Deal makes sense

McTaggart weighs in:

You can call the Astros' trading of Pudge Rodriguez to the Rangers a case of throwing in the towel for 2009 or the start of a rebuilding effort, but I don't believe either is the case. Are the Astros out of it for this? Almost certainly, but they aren't going to concede anything until they are mathematically eliminated.

And I wouldn't call trading away a 35-year-old catcher who has very little left in the tank the start of a rebuilding effort. Pudge was brought here to serve in a pinch anyway, to play one season at catcher while the Astros wait on Jason Castro to get ready. Pudge gave the Astros more offense at catcher than they've had in years and was a great influence on the pitching staff, but basically they go three players from the Rangers for very little. It's a good move, and the kind they should have made.

Now, if the Astros start getting rid of Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, then you have rebuilding on your hands. Getting rid of Pudge? Not so much...

...The bottom line is the Astros still have some nice pieces and moves like sending off Pudge could only have a positive effect on their future.

He also advocates giving Manzella a shot at SS1, and resigning Tejada and moving him to 3B1 (for $5-7 mil).

Remembering Pudge

What did Astros County have to say about Pudge's brief time with the Astros?

February 13:
I would still be very surprised if this happens...

February 23:
Unless Pudge comes down to League Minimum, it ain't happening and the Astros will gamble on Quintero and Palmisano paying off.

March 14:
I still have a hard time figuring out how the Astros sign Pudge. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I don't see it. Would I be excited? Eh. Would he be a nice holdover until Castro is ready? Maybe.

March 16:
The fact that the Astros drafted Castro last June shows that they were probably hedging their bets on Towles. At the very least, they've given both Quintero and Castro another year to develop and learn. And honestly, if the difference between a .220-hitting catcher and a .280 hitting catcher is $1.5 million, why the heck not? It's not our money.

March 17:
So is Pudge a Band-Aid for a team with a broke neck? Here's the thing - we don't know how this is going to shake out for a few months. Is it interesting? Sure, because it's better than talking about how the Astros haven't won a Spring Training game since February 25. Is it risky? Of course. There may be a very good reason a Boras client wasn't signed until March 16.

Stone cold locks don't go unsigned until March 16. But we just don't know. If maybe we all take a step back and look at this objectively, who would you rather have behind the plate in 2009: Quintero, Towles or Palmisano? Or Pudge? Castro is clearly the catcher of the future (unless he shows up and goes 1x17 in 2010), so this is obviously just a stop-gap, $1.5 million signing until Bobby Heck's farm system kicks in.

April 16:
(via Buster Olney) "(The Astros) might be looking for a catcher before the year's over."

July 13:
Why in the hell did the Astros claim Coste off waivers if Pudge or Quintero weren't going anywhere?

July 30:
If the Astros can get something for Valverde and Pudge, they should go ahead and do it.

August 4:
(via Justice) Why not give J.R. Towles another shot when he's back from the disabled list? What would it hurt? Would the offense get worse? Is Pudge's throwing arm so valuable that the Astros don't need production from their catchers?

August 18:
Essentially, the Astros gave up a catcher who was not producing offensively and got some help in the minors. This is the first move I can think of in years where the Astros traded in a possibility of winning now for future wins. And I'm totally in favor of it.

Some fishy things with the economics in this trade

Now, this is interesting. I'm not one to say that this was the driving force in making this trade immediately, but the Rangers are about to get stuck with a pro-rated pain in the wallet.

But take a look at Pudge's performance bonuses, and this is what you'll see:

$200K each for 350, 375, 400, 425, 450 plate appearances; $150,000 each for 90 games, 100 games; $200,000 for 100 games played.

Where is Pudge in this? As of this morning, 344 plate appearances and 93 games played. The Astros have already paid Pudge $150,000 for the 90 games, but six more plate appearances and that's another $200K. I'm not sure how they'll break up the pro-rated amount, but that's...interesting.

Pudge says the right things to the DFW media

Dallas Morning-News, official record-keeper for the welcome back group hug in Arlington, had some quotes from Pudge, namely, on being a C2 (a role in which I could have sworn he didn't want to fill in the off-season):

“I understand the way the team is playing, and we don’t want to break that,” said Rodriguez, who made his major-league debut with the Rangers on June 20, 1991, and stayed with the club through the 2002 season. [Manager] Ron [Washington] and I, we talked about that, and he’s going to play me two or three days a week, which is OK. I’m a winner, and whatever it takes to win, I’ll be here.”

Also an interesting note on the potential third player: that only kicks in if the Rangers make the post-season.

JJO weighs in, then I do.

Blog post from JJO with the word from the Man in the Uniform:

It was clear to several Astros players that trading Rodriguez meant the Astros had given up on the 2009 season...

...I will say that Humberto Quintero can give you what Pudge Rodriguez gave the Astros. If anything, the Astros should have spent the $1.5 million they spent on Rodriguez on a reliever this winter and let Quintero settle in while J.R. Towles or Lou Santangelo proved if they were ready before Jason Castro comes up next year.

At the risk of sounding like a cynical reporter, I agree with the players that the Astros have waved the white flag and begun to look toward 2010. That is not a bad thing, in my opinion. Heck, unless Drayton McLane plans to extend Jose Valverde and Miguel Tejada, he should trade those guys and get some more quality prospects. Those are the jewels, not Pudge Rodriguez. I would re-sign Valverde and Tejada, who I would move to third. If McLane doesn't want to do that, ship them off to a contender and get some real quality prospects instead of the package they got for Rodriguez.

There's nothing wrong with trading Ivan Rodriguez, Valverde or Tejada, but be honest to the fans.

If the players don't believe, fans won't either.

I tend to think that MGMT has realized (and whether or not you think that Drayton is pulling the strings, it's still the case) that there's no way it's going to work out this year. Did I just say that I would be okay with Pudge coming back in 2010, but in a mentoring role? Yes, I did. I also briefly dropped Justice saying that Drayton was interested in bringing Pudge back (here) in 2010 - that was on August 12. What happened in the six days since that blog was posted? Well, Alyson Footer says it started when Saltalamacchia (try that, spell check) went down on Saturday.

Presumably, when Jon Daniels started dangling prospects, even prospects that wouldn't have a shot to impact the Big Club until 2013, the Astros couldn't refuse, and who can blame them? Pudge 2009 isn't Pudge 1996. It's a low-risk, unknowable reward, but it had to happen. If the rest of the Astros are pissed, so what? I cannot believe that Berkman lays awake at night thinking, "If only Ed Wade would believe in me and my team..."

I'm sorry Berkman got hurt when he did, because that's when the season started to slip away. I'm sorry that Oswalt got hurt when Berkman did, because that pretty much did it. Trading pieces off had to happen sooner or later, but if the pouting Astros in the clubhouse think that Pudge getting hot was keeping them from making a run, then I need to seriously reevaluate the level of intelligence of my chosen team.

I don't sit in the clubhouse, I don't get to talk to the players, and I'm sure Pudge is a great guy: funny, buys dinner, tells bawdy stories about Juan Gonzalez and all. That's right, I just used "bawdy." I don't know about team chemistry, but this club hasn't exactly jelled at any point this season. I doubt that Pudge was the guy keeping Berkman from shanking Cooper after a game. There doesn't look to be any chemistry on this team. Losing Pudge doesn't change that.

Rangers in Go For It mode

T.R. Sullivan, who has been all over this like a fratboy on Jaeger, attributes the Rangers' trade for Pudge to needing a playoff veteran on the roster.

Nolan Ryan:
"We're excited to have Pudge. We're looking forward to having him, and he's excited about coming back. He brings experience, he's a veteran player and he's been in the postseason. He brings a lot."

Texas is 4.5GB of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the AL West lead, and one game up on the Boston Red Sox of Boston for the Wild Card lead. Amazingly, Pudge is an upgrade offensively over Rangers C1 Taylor Teagarden, who comes into tonight's game hitting .198/.264/.373 in 126 ABs. Seeing as how the Rangers have 24 guys who aren't of legal drinking age yet, it makes sense to have Playoff Story Time with Uncle Pudge in the clubhouse everyday at 3pm, when Pudge has his tea.

Richard Justice makes his feelings known

And nobody is left standing:

Pudge Rodriguez is the first to go, but he shouldn't be the last. The Astros ought to make Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins, etc., available. If they get one one really good prospect for all of them, theyll be in better shape than they are now.

Pudge was Drayton McLane's idea. He wanted him because the Astros didn't have a major league catcher and also because he was trying to plug holes to keep the Astros in contention another year. He was forced to do this because his minor league system is in bad shape and because he was unwilling to raise the payroll into the $120-million range.

As he surveys all those empty seats, I'm guessing he's second guessing that decision...

...Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman probably aren't going to be in the prime of their careers when the Astros get really good again. This statement shouldn't be etched in stone because there are too many variables.

The Astros need so many things, and they don't appear to have them in their minor league system.

If Drayton has another off-season of patching together an old, bad boring team, he'll be making a huge mistake....

...My guess is that Drayton will fire Cecil Cooper and most of the coaching staff. This is a smart move only if he hires first-rate people to replace them, and his recent history indicates he may not do this.

But that's only part of the problem. The Astros have missed badly on evaluating their big league team. This off-season will provide another opportunity to get it right.

Ed Wade's fundamental mistake has been spending way too much money on hitting and not enough on pitching. He didn't make the offense any better, and the lack of pitching will mean the Astros will miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year. Change is needed, but that change can only begin with Drayton.

Roy no happy

JJO decides to go ahead and get some reaction:

Ed Wade, in a text to the Chronicle:
"We are not in a position of making any comments about Pudge Rodriguez at this time."

Roy:
"I think they're starting to look toward next year," said ace Roy Oswalt, who echoed the mood in the Astros' clubhouse.

Is that disappointment?

Who does this trade affect the most?

Obviously having the C1 position open, the speculation among Astros fans is: Who the heck starts now? You can bet that Quintero will see more time behind the plate, but who is C2? Does Towles get called up? Does Coste move behind the plate to be C2?

J.R. Towles was placed on the DL on July 26, and I don't see any mention of him having been activated from the DL, so he's out for getting called up. Brian Esposito and Lou Santangelo are both on the active roster in Round Rock. Will they get called up?

Coste started 29 games behind the plate for the Phillies before getting coming to Houston. Will he take C2?

As for the minor leaguers, the 2B/SS on Corpus' roster are:
2B - Drew Meyer. In 114 games (437 ABs), Meyer has posted a .295/.367/.400 line this season, with 70K:50BB
SS - Wladimir Sutil. Another speedy, defensive SS. In 105 games (394 ABs), Sutil is hitting .289/.368/.343, with 35K:38BB.

Here is the Lexington, the League in which Navarez spent this season, bullpen (minimum 30 appearances):

Villar: 73.2IP, 63H/21ER, 2.57 ERA/1.06 WHIP, 90K:15BB
Urckfitz: 48.1IP, 41H/14ER, 2.61 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 40K:13BB
Wabick: 69.1IP, 69H/31ER, 4.02 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 52K:19BB
Leon: 61.1IP, 77H/43ER, 6.31 ERA/1.91 WHIP, 44K:40BB

But essentially, the Astros gave up a catcher who was not producing offensively and got some help in the minors. This is the first move I can think of in years where the Astros traded in a possibility of winning now for future wins. And I'm totally in favor of it. I'm not sure what happens to your brain when you get north of Huntsville, but I love the fact - if for this reason only - that the Rangers are still in the Wild Card hunt. They actually traded two prospects for an old catcher.

And McTaggart has the other name

McTaggart reporting the player to be named now is:

IF Jose Vallejo, 22 year-old 2B/SS from the Dominican Republic (actually, he was born in the same city as Tejada - Bani).

He has speed, Baseball Cube grades Vallejo's speed at a 95.

In 84 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City (304 ABs), Vallejo was batting .233/.282/.307 with 73K:22BB. 14 of his 72 hits in Oklahoma City were for extra bases. So in 20 games (83 ABs) at Double-A Frisco, Vallejo put up .289/.318/.349 with 14K:4BB, and four of his 24 hits in Frisco were for extra bases.

Jason Parks at Baseball Time in Arlington had this to say in his Scouting Series (which is incredible):

Vallejo is a very exciting player to watch in person, as his skill set is very visually impressive. He is effortlessly athletic with pure speed that makes him an absolute nightmare on the base paths. He also has lightning-quick reflexes, a smooth glove-to-hand transfer, a strong, accurate arm, and a quiet intensity on the field that exudes leadership without the necessity of words. Unfortunately, Vallejo's grace on the field can't hide some of the holes in his offensive skill set.

Vallejo's offensive ceiling is rather pedestrian. I think he projects to hit in the .250-.269 range at the major league level with max power potential in the 15-19 home run range, although 10-15 seems more likely. Assuming Vallejo even reaches the ceiling of his offensive potential, is that enough to be a major league regular? Is a plus defender at second base (and quite possibly an above-average defensive shortstop) that hits .265/.315/.400 a player you want to see penciled into a line-up card for 162 games? Depends.

His hitting mechanics are relatively sound and his bat control improved during the '08 season, but he struggles to consistently drive the ball. He doesn't have the best approach at the plate and his pitch recognition skills often encourage him to lunge at the ball, causing a breakdown in his hitting mechanics. His ability to get out of the box and down the line in 4.0 seconds will certainly enhance his offensive opportunities, but without an above-average approach and without the ability to make consistent hard contact, Vallejo looks to be more of a slasher that will be forced to rely on his speed over his natural power.

If you value defense at a premium defensive position (as mentioned above, Vallejo will be seeing some action at shortstop during the '09 season; based on his defensive resume at second base, and his natural defensive tools, I think Vallejo would make an above-average shortstop; if Vallejo’s defensive skill can indeed translate across the bag, his overall projection becomes a bit more complicated), Vallejo might just be a player to get really excited about. If you think that defensive value isn't enough to justify a limited offensive projection, Vallejo might just be a player that you find doesn't live up to his OFP grade. Either way, or perhaps somewhere in between, Vallejo has the tools to play a role at the major league level. Whether that makes him a super sub or the next starting shortstop for the Texas Rangers will depend on his ability to develop as a hitter.