The Astros did not play last night. I could not wake up yesterday morning. I went to sleep about 9:30pm, before the Astros started scoring Runs on Wednesday night, woke up, went back to bed, and after a couple of get-ups to eat some lunch and go to the bathroom, I didn't actually wake up until about 5:30pm yesterday. If I have to Rip Van Winkle myself through the playoffs, I will do it.
The Mariners scored two runs in the 9th inning to beat the Rangers 3-2.
Fresh off of getting swept by the GDKC Royals, the Astros got a vintage Verlander performance last night in Seattle. Houston is 86-71, 2.5 back of The Colony, 1.5 up on Seattle. There are five games remaining in the regular season.
Keep in mind: The Astros have the tie-breaker against the Rangers. So in order for the Astros to win the Division, they would need to match the Rangers' record. You can safely assume that the Anaheim Possums are going to do exactly that, so the Mariners are going to have to do something in the last series of the season, and the Astros can't afford to...be the 2023 Astros.
Houston is 2.5 back of The Colony. If the Astros just win out, it puts them at 91-71. The Rangers would have to go 4-2 to finish a game ahead of Houston. If the Astros go 4-1, the Rangers would have to go 3-3. It's a tough, uphill battle. Unless! the Astros actually want the Wild Card, in which case they'd get the advantage of not playing at home, but also getting the Twins and not the Rays. Chess, not checkers?
After a 21-6 August, the Mariners are 8-15 in September. They're 5-15 against teams not named "Oakland" in September.
It's one. We got five to go. Hopefully, we come back out tomorrow and do the same thing.
*Houston "improved" to 3-8 against Seattle in 2023. The Astros are 57-33 (.633) all-time at Seattle.
*Houston is 61-22 when scoring first in 2023.
*Verlander did what they brought him back to do: 8IP, 3H/1ER, 8K:1BB. And on only 96 pitches, 65 of which he threw for strikes. It's the 56th time in his career that he's gotten 24 outs and allowed only an earned run (or less) - the 12th time he's done it for the Astros.
Opponents who have gotten shut down to the tune of at least 8IP of 0-1ER baseball by Verlander, career:
Incredible. That's obviously what this team needed. He knew that, and going out there and putting the team in that type of position was great.
*A Full and Complete List of Astros Starting Pitchers to throw 8IP+ in 2023:
Framber Valdez: 4
Justin Verlander: 1
It's the first time an Astros starter has recorded 24 outs since Framber's no-hitter on August 1. Verlander's 79 Game Score is the highest by an Astros starter since Framber's 78 on August 25.
It was Verlander's 256th career win, by far the most by an active pitcher (Zack Greinke's 224 is 2nd). He's tied for 42nd all-time with Former Astros Great Andy Pettitte. 264 wins gets him in the Top 40 all-time.
*Bryan Abreu closed out the 9th with a scoreless inning. That is now 25 straight scoreless outings for Bryan Abreu, dating back to July 15. Only six pitchers have a 25+ game scoreless streak for the Astros:
1. Ryan Pressly: 40 games (Aug 15, 2018-May 20, 2019)
2. Ryne Stanek: 30 games (Apr 29-July 22, 2022)
3. Joe Sambio: 27 games (May 3-July 14, 1979)
4. Will Harris: 26 games (April 9-June 8, 2016)
5. Billy Wagner: 25 games (Aug 13, 1999-April 16, 2000)
5. Bryan Abreu: 25 games (July 18, 2023-present)
It's the longest active streak in the Majors, and only two other pitchers have managed to throw at least 25 consecutive scoreless outings: Cleveland's Sam Hentges, who saw his 25-game scoreless streak end on September 24; and San Diego's Josh Hader, whose 26-game scoreless streak ended on August 29.
*The 107 pitches thrown in a 9-inning game by Verlander/Abreu are the 4th-lowest pitch total by the Astros in 2023.
*It's the 36th time in 2023 that Astros pitchers have held their opponent to 0-1BB. They're 19-17 in those games...somehow.
*Yordan Alvarez was 2x4 with his 30th home run of the season. It's the third season in a row Yordan has hit 30+ homers.
Three or More Consecutive Seasons of 30+ Homers, Astros history:
8: Jeff Bagwell (1996-2003)
3: Yordan Alvarez (2021-2023)
That's it. Kyle Tucker needs one more home run to join this list.
*Alex Bregman was 0x5. He's now gone five straight games without a hit, hitless in seven of his last eight. His five-game hitless streak ties a career-high, set in 2021 and 2016. Since his 3-hit game against Kansas City on September 16, Bregman has one hit in his last 28 Plate Appearances, but with 3K:9BB. The Astros are 28-31 when Bregman does not get a hit.
*Martin Maldonado was 2x3 with a walk - his 15th multi-hit game of the season. He raised his OPS from .601 to .612 last night.
*Mauricio Dubon opened the scoring with a base hit to score Jose Abreu, who ran 270 feet like a big boy. Alvarez, on Dubon's hit:
Very big. Having the runner on third there with nobody out and then having two outs, getting him in, I think, gave the team second wind. So it was very big to get it all started.
Other Stuff
*Ronel Blanco and Will Wagner were named the PCL's Pitcher and Player of the Week, respectively.
Nice of the Astros to remember that there's a division to win - they're not used to having to play games that kinda matter in September, so I get it. Houston finally beat the vaunted Royals 7-1. They're 84-66, 1.5 up on the Rangers, who lost. Also, after dodging, ducking, dipping, diving, and dodging for 3.5 years, I have COVID. I had a booster scheduled for today lol. It feels like the worst sinus infection I've ever had. I wore a mask this morning to the grocery store, so it was great to slime the inside of that thing up like gahdang Alien.
What happens if there's a tie between Seattle and Trinity River? Well they have seven games against each other remaining, so it's way too soon to be thinking about tie-breakers between those two.
What about a tie between Toronto and Trinity River? Given that Toronto just got their asses handed to them at home by Weatherford, the Rangers would edge out the Blue Jays.
What about a tie between Toronto and Houston? The Blue Jays and Astros played their last head-to-head game of the season on June 8, but the Blue Jays won 3-2 on both June 7 and June 8 to take the season series 4-3. Toronto would win that tie-breaker.
What about a tie between Trinity River and Houston? Houston has the head-to-head.
What about a tie between Seattle and Houston? Seattle has the head-to-head, no matter what happens September 25-27, thanks to the Astros just dying to get to the All-Star Break and mailing it in for that July series.
What about a tie between Seattle and Toronto? They finished the regular season with a 3-3 split lol. So the second tie-breaker is division record. Toronto is 15-25 against the AL East, while Seattle is 26-13 against the AL West. If Seattle does poorly enough against the AL West down the stretch to allow Toronto to catch them...Seattle ain't gonna be in the playoffs.
*Houston is now 46-29 on the road. Away Records, recent seasons:
2022: 51-30
2021: 44-37
2019: 47-34
2018: 57-24
2017: 53-28
2016: 41-40
2015: 33-48
*We can trust Framber again! Framber threw his fifth straight Quality Start, yesterday going 7IP, 5H/1R (0ER), 5K:1BB. It's his third straight start of 21 outs. Framber's last five starts: 34IP, 20H/6ER, 30K:11BB. Dusty:
You go through streaks where you're not yourself. Then you go through streaks where you're adding on and adding on and getting consecutive games, and your confidence grows. We need Framber, and it was big for him.
*Jose Altuve was 3x5 with a double and an RBI. It's his 13th 3-hit game of the season. He only has RBIs in five of his last 18 games - but all five of those are multi-RBI games.
*Yordan Alvarez was 1x3 with his 28th home run of the season, and a walk. He has 7RBI in his last four games and is at 92RBI for the season.
*Jake Meyers hit his 10th home run of the season - his first since hitting 2HR at Yankee Stadium on August 6 - it's his 2nd RBI since then.
*Bryan Abreu has not allowed a run - earned or otherwise - since July 15. That's 21.2IP, 9H/0ER, 24K:10BB in that streak. Longest active streak for appearances without an earned run (though Abreu's 21.2IP is the longest active number of scoreless innings):
1. Sam Hentges (CLE): 23
2. Bryan Abreu (HOU): 22
3. Former Astros Great Cionel Perez (BAL): 21
It's only the 16th time in Astros history that a pitcher has thrown 22 consecutive outings without allowing an earned run. Looking ahead at Abreu's streak:
23: Will Harris (2018-19)
24: Trever Miller (2006)
25: Billy Wagner (1999-2000)
26: Will Harris (2016)
27: Joe Sambito (1979)
30: Ryne Stanek (2022)
40: Ryan Pressly (2018-19)
*Chas McCormick went 3x4 and stole two bases to give him 18 on the year. Two more SBs and he joins the 20/20 Club.
*The Astros were 2x13 w/RISP on Sunday. They were 6x30 in the weekend series.
*It'll be Verlander-Brown-TBD to face the Orioles starting tonight. Just put Urquidy in on Wednesday and let Javier be the swing guy.
*The first 10,000 fans to MMP next Sunday will [chuckles] get this [snickers] MLB Network [outright guffaw] hat. The 10,001st fan will get all 10,000.
*The Orioles clinched their first playoff berth since 2016, turning from a laughing-stock into legit contenders. Good work and congratulations to Mike and Sig. They join the 2013-2015 Astros as the only teams in MLB history to go from 110+ losses to the playoffs in a three-year span.
I didn't expect to be awake early enough to do these, but it was a wild night, both on the field and in my kitchen (I was bitten by a mouse - it's a long story. Actually, it's not. I was bitten by a mouse I had tried to trap) and light insomnia is something with which I'm coming to terms! So let's recap:
The Colony has the tiebreaker on Seattle thanks to their 5-1 record against the Mariners. The Astros are in 3rd because their winning percentage is .567 while the Mariners and Rangers have a .568 winning percentage.
In the event of a tie, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head record. The Astros are 6-4 against The Colony, but 2-8 against Seattle. Houston still has a series left with each one. As long as the Astros get one against the Ramgers next week, they'll take the season series. Thanks to the Astros going 2-5 against Seattle in games decided by 1-2 runs, Seattle will hold the tie-breaker over Houston in the division.
Since August 1:
Seattle: 20-6
Houston: 16-11
The Colony: 15-11
Oakland: 9-17
Anaheim: 7-19
Let's recap the FanGraphs' AL West Odds as we approach September 1:
Houston beat Boston 6-2, led by Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and J.P. France, who bounced back in a big way against Boston. Dusty:
We've got some guys starting to swing the bat. Breggy's hot, Alvarez is hot, Altuve was hot yesterday. It was a great day for Michael because he hit the ball hard a couple of times and had nothing to show for it. We needed that win bad, so hopefully we can get the sweep and go home.
*J.P. France, August 24 vs Boston: 2.1IP, 11H/10ER, 3K:2BB.
J.P. France, August 29 at Boston: 5.2IP, 5H/2ER.
After striking out seven of the 27 Mariners he faced in a 2-0 loss on August 18, France has struck out six of the last 43 Red Sox he faced.
Still, it's France's 14th appearance (out of 20 in 2023) in which he has allowed two or fewer earned run.
*Alex Bregman was 3x5 with a home run. Since the All-Star Break (43 games), Bregman is hitting .316/.419/.571 - a .991 OPS.
*Yordan Alvarez was 3x5 with two doubles and an RBI. Since returning from the IL on July 26, Alvarez is hitting .321/.412/.554.
Alvarez has four straight multi-hit games, and has reached base in 14 of his last 23 Plate Appearances. The longest multi-hit game streak in franchise history is nine games, set by Jose Altuve (2015), Billy Hatcher (1987), and Jesus Alou (1969).
In eight career games at Fenway Park, Yordan is hitting .483/.583/1.035. That's not a typo, and that led to the Stropoll that just ambushed tf out of this "I-Pay-For-Twitter" SuperDouche.
*Jose Abreu was 1x3 with a walk and an RBI. In five games since his return from the IL he's hitting .300/.391/.500.
*Mauricio Dubon enjoyed his second 2RBI game in his last three.
*Michael Brantley made his first appearance since June 2022 and went 0x4, but the weakest ball he put in play was 97.6mph off the bat.
*Rafael Montero: 1.1IP, 1H/0ER, 2K:1BB. On June 29 his ERA was 7.29. In 22 games since, Montero is holding opponents to a .624 OPS for a 2.31 ERA/1.16 WHIP.
*Ryan Pressly is apparently sick, or is just getting a break as he hasn't pitched since allowing all four runs to the Tigers on August 25.
Alright let's do this quickly - I have to be somewhere this morning. And I haven't showered since Saturday. So. The Astros got rolled by the Mets 11-1 for their fifth straight loss. Houston is 39-34. Anaheim was off and of course Kennedale won, so Houston is 6.5 back. In my second season as head coach, I took the soccer team to playoffs for the first time since 2017. Then Leeds United got relegated and the Astros suck. Sorry, y'all.
*The Astros have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
*Houston is 3-8 since Yordan exited the game early on June 8. As a team they're "hitting" .231/.302/.391 and have left 85 runners on base in those 11 games.
*The Astros have allowed 30 runs to score in the last three games, most since the June 28-30 Baltimore series, when they gave up 27. They gave up 29 runs in three games from April 20-22, 2019. But you have to go all the way back to September 9-10, 2017 to find the last time they allowed more than 30 runs in three games, when the A's got them for 32 runs in a double-header and the series finale.
*On June 3 the Astros were 35-23 and had a 52.5% chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs. As of this morning that percentage is now at 18.5%.
*Congratulations to Shawn Dubin, who made his MLB debut last night and that's all we'll talk about regarding that.
*The stats are depressing. Let's get to the links.
*Texas Monthly: The story we've been told about Juneteenth is wrong.
*Wired: When a 7.9 earthquake struck San Francisco in 1906, it opened the gates of hell. You could have ridden it out, if you made all the right decisions.
Not much happening, and the last few days have been pretty crazy for me, personally. So let's just round up what we've learned. If something happens that warrants a post, I'll be back. If not, I hope you have a Merry Christmas and, if you're traveling, you make it to your destination safely. Best wishes to you and your families.
*Roster Resource says the Astros' 2020 payroll is right about $237m. Players (and their salaries) coming off the books - as of right now - after this season:
George Springer ($21.4m based on arbitration projections)
Michael Brantley ($16m)
Josh Reddick ($13m)
Yuli Gurriel ($8.3m)
Brad Peacock ($4.6m)
*The White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a 3yr/$55.5m deal, with a vesting option for a 4th year. This offseason the White Sox have acquired Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Nomar Mazara, and James McCann.
*The MLB Umpires Association has agreed to a 5-year labor contract, part of which Teh Umpires have agreed to cooperate with a test of an automated strike zone.
Hey I got an idea, Billiam: Let's spell it "cannolli" and just include an extra L for gits and shiggles.
*Over at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski has the game-by-game probabilities for the World Series and it's 60-40 Astros. This is weird, but as of now the Astros do not dip below 51.1% for any of the seven games. Szymborski also broke down the Astros' Game 6 win.
*The Washington Post's Neil Greenberg took a look at how teams fared in the World Series based on the amount of rest they had going in. Greenberg: In 2012, MLB added a second wild-card team to each league. Since then, the World Series team with more rest has posted a 1-6 record, with the lone victory coming last season when the Boston Red Sox, after five days off, defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers, who had a three-day break...Before that, the team with fewer rest had won nine straight titles.
Click the link to read some more nuance and context and how No This Is Actually A Good Thing comes into play.
*Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez were all teammates in Detroit and now find themselves once again in the World Series. I guess that confirms it: San Francisco in 6.
*26 Facts about the 2019 World Series. This nugget: The Nationals might have dominated the Cardinals in the NLCS, but now they'll have to buck recent history. Just one of the past eight clubs (the 1995 Braves) who have swept an LCS have gone on to win the World Series, and the last five teams to do so are 0-5 in the Fall Classic.
*Chandler Rome: The Astros are winning in the postseason via the home run. Hinch: I don't really care what we hit, as long as we win games.
I have some time on my hands for a little bit, so let's break this Series down. On May 23, the Astros lost to the White Sox 4-0 and the Nationals fell to the Mets 6-4. Houston was 33-18, Washington was 19-31, 1.5 games better than the Marlins for the worst record in the NL. Since May 23 (postseason not included):
Houston: 74-37
Washington: 74-38
Spooooooky.
FanGraphs had the Astros as the best offensive team in baseball, with all offensive players combining for 40.8 fWAR. The Nationals were 8th, at 26.0 fWAR. Pitching-wise, it was much closer. The Astros were 4th in MLB at 23.7 fWAR, with the Nationals right behind at 22.3 fWAR.
Home Record:
Houston: 65-22
Washington: 54-32
Houston was legendarily good at home in 2019, and are 5-1 in the postseason at Minute Maid Park so far.
Houston's record included a ten-day stretch from June 17-27 when the Astros went 1-5 against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, with a 1-3 series against the AL Silver Medalist New York Yankees in between. Washington got to play their rival Orioles plus the AL Central White Sox, Twins, Indians, and Royals (12-4). Rotation:
Houston: 79-37, 3.61 ERA / 1.09 WHIP, 4.24 K:BB ratio, .672 OPS-against. 19.4 fWAR (4th in MLB).
Washington: 66-36, 3.53 ERA / 1.19 WHIP, 3.39 K:BB ratio, .685 OPS-against. 21.4 fWAR (1st in MLB). Washington has enjoyed the best rotation in the 2019 playoffs thus far, at least according to some major dashboard stats: 61.2IP, 37H/14ER, 88K:20BB, 2.04 ERA / 0.93 WHIP. So far, Houston starters have a 3.16 ERA / 1.23 WHIP, but the Rays and Yankees aren't exactly the Dodgers and Cardinals. If there is a team that could possibly match up well with Cole-Verlander-Greinke, it's the Washington trio of Scherzer-Strasburg-Martin. This should be fun to watch and, by fun, I mean agonizing. Bullpen:
Houston: 28-18, 3.75 ERA / 1.20 WHIP, 3.09 K:BB ratio, .694 OPS-against. 4.3 fWAR (8th in MLB).
Washington: 27-33, 5.68 ERA / 1.48 WHIP, 2.29 K:BB ratio, .800 OPS-against. 0.9 fWAR (22nd in MLB).
Washington's much-maligned bullpen earned all of that maligning. The Nationals' bullpen in the postseason is sporting a 4.76 ERA, the only two bullpens worse were the Dodgers and Twins, and heh we saw what happened to those guys in the Division Series. That said, and I don't think I'll get a job at The Athletic (wink) for pointing this out, if the Astros can get into the Nationals' bullpen, things look pretty good for Houston.
Now for the position players. For Washington, I used the defensive alignment from NLCS Game 4 as a guide, but included production over the year from that position, as well:
If there is a legit threat to Bregman's standing as the Best 3B in Baseball, it's from Houston's own Anthony Rendon, who had a monster year in 2019. Shortstop:
Houston SSs: .283/.375/.543, 137 OPS+, 12.4 fWAR (1st)
Washington SSs: .281/.340/.458, 107 OPS+, 2.8 fWAR (16th)
*I guess, if you wanted to, you could read Mike Petriello's position-by-position breakdown and see who he gives the edge to, including giving the Nationals the edge in Starting Pitching, with a prediction: Astros in 6.
*Jim Callis: How the Astros and Nationals built their Pennant-winners.
*MLBTR: Examining the ripple effects of the failed Bryce Harper-to-Houston trade in July 2018.
The Astros beat the piss out of the Royals, and the 2019 Astros should absolutely beat the piss out of the 2019 Royals. Houston won 12-3 and improved to 98-53. There are 11 regular season games left. The Astros would need to go 6-5 down the stretch in order to set the franchise record for wins in a season. And they're about to get Carlos Correa, Ryan Pressly, and Brad Peacock back. The Astros are off today. Houston is 10-4 in September and 41-20 since the All-Star Break.
*The Blue Jays beat the Yankees, the Dodgers beat the Mets.
So...
Houston (98-53): -
New York (98-53) -
Los Angeles (97-54): -1
Houston has Texas, Anaheim, at Seattle, at Anaheim to end the season. New York has Anaheim, Toronto, at Tampa, at Arlington. Los Angeles has Tampa, Colorado, at San Diego at San Francisco. There are 13 days left in the regular season.
*To the Astros sweep of the Royals: Wade Miley pitched well! 6IP, 7H/2ER, 4K:2BB. Miley's 6IP are the most since August 2. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 of his 31 starts. Reddick - more on him in a minute - said that Sunday's game helped Miley more than anybody: The biggest boost forward was for Wade. He's been the same guy. After his first (bad) start, he came in and was the same guy. The second start got to him a little bit more. He lost his confidence, I think. He was kind of quiet.
Miley established his inner-half fastball. Miley: Once I got out of the first inning, a big weight came off my shoulders. So just go in and attack and I was able to go six.
*Josh Reddick enjoyed the first 5-hit day of his career. He had five hits in his previous 24 PAs. It's his 32nd multi-hit game of the season. It's only the 5th time in his career he's gotten on base five times in a game, the first since September 8, 2017. Reddick has hit three home runs in September, and his 3RBI equaled his September total coming into Sunday. Reddick: [The dugout is] telling me to go out and get the fifth one and, as soon as I hit it and it got through the infield, I could hear my dugout as I was running down the baseline. A great feeling all around. These days don't come around without a few lucky hits in there.
*Springer and Altuve had Sunday off, in advance of an off-day today, and another on Thursday, as Hinch remains committed to the regular rest leading into October. Hinch: These guys are going to get rest days. I've tried to warn everybody and tried to explain it over and over that [Sunday's lineup] is a team that we think we can win with.
*Aaron Sanchez had surgery last week but, as of yesterday, Luhnow had not received an update on the surgery or his prognosis. Aaron Sanchez is literally dead to Jeff Luhnow.
*Brittany Ghiroli has a great story in The Athletic on Aaron Barrett.
*The Astros were off yesterday, mercifully. There are three more off-days before the end of the regular season, so no more of that 17-games-in-17-days business.
The Yankees beat the Rangers, because the Yankees are supposed to beat the Rangers. The Dodgers beat the Rockies. Oakland beat the Angels. None of this is surprising.
*Baseball-Reference has backtracked a little on the Astros, actually, pretty much everybody has lowered the Astros by a little bit. Oh well.
*Hinch, on watching Springer knock his coconut: I didn't know what it was - could be shoulder, could be head, could be back, could be ankle, could be anything. we get out there with Jeremiah and I and half the team. Those are always really scary. Your mind starts racing as to what it could be. Then you just kind of have to wait for the medical evaluation.
Springer will be a game-time decision for this evening's game against the Mariners.
*FanGraphs: Alex Bregman still has another gear. Ben Clemens: Alex Bregman is already a top-five player in baseball, but it isn't crazy to wonder how long he can sustain it. Thus far in his two-year run as a superstar, he's generating a lot of his value from walks. But if he's able to change his swing habits and tap into more of his natural power, he might go from a gate-crasher of the game's very top tier to a solo second behind Trout, the kind of player you pencil in for 7-ish WAR at the start of every year.
*SI's Jon Tayler wonders if Gerrit Cole can catch Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young race.
*Playoffs Time in the Minors:
-Crazy one in Round Rock last night in the series opener against Iowa. Round Rock carried a 2-0 lead into the top of the 6th, and gave it back over the next two innings to send it to extras. Iowa scored two runs in the top of the 11th but a Drew Ferguson walk, Jamie Ritchie single, Wild Pitch, Alex De Goti walk, Wild Pitch (run scored), and Chas McCormick single that allowed Round Rock to walk it off. Game 2 is tonight. Forrest Whitley will pitch out of the bullpen.
-Fayetteville and Down East played a double-header due to the impending arrival of Hurricane Dorian, and split it. But here's some bullcrap for you: Miguelangel Sierra broke up a no-hitter in Game 1 when he hit a solo home run. The umpire called him out for not touching home plate. He touched home plate. MiLB must be getting that guy ready for the Astros' playoffs. Down East won G1 3-0. In Game 2 Jeremy Pena hit a 2-run homer on Fayetteville's way to a 3-0 win. Austin Hansen threw 5.1IP, 4H/0ER, 3K:1BB. Series is Tied 1-1 and will resume on Friday.
-Quad Cities took Game 1 with a 4-1 win over Cedar Rapids. Wilyer Abreu was 2x4 with 2 doubles and 2RBI. Valente Bellozo threw 6IP, 4H/1ER, 6K:2BB to get the win. Game 2 is this evening.
Kind of a light news day, and thank God for that, after he Astros enjoyed an actual off-day after playing 17 games in 17 days. There are four off-days remaining in the regular season.
As mentioned previously, the Astros have a 49-16 home record in 2019. At home vs the AL West, the Astros are 23-2. The two losses? A 5-4 loss to Anaheim on July 5. A 4-3 loss in 11 innings to Oakland on July 23.
If we're scoreboard watching...
Oakland beat the piss out of the Royals, 19-4.
New York beat the Mariners, 5-4.
Los Angeles lost to the Padres, 4-3.
In Other Words:
Los Angeles: -
New York: -0.5
Houston: -1.0
Oakland: - 10.0
The Astros need to go 15-15 to hit the 100-win mark for the 3rd straight season, and would be the first team to do so since New York did it from 2002-2004. Bregman's ready for it: It's going to be a good race to the finish, and then real baseball starts. Looking forward to it. Hinch: We want the best record; we want home field. To be honest with you, we won the World Series on the road in Game 7. It would have been nice to have that at home at Minute Maid, so we want the best record in baseball.
*Playoff Odds (Note: I'm doing this about 4:40am Central. Some sites (B-Pro, B-Ref) haven't updated from last night's games, but you'll get the basic idea. Click the links later to see how it changed, if you want.)
Nothing much has changed regarding these numbers from the last time we did this, just over two weeks ago. FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight still think the Astros have the best chance of winning the World Series. Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference still give the edge to the Dodgers.
*Hunter Atkins: Michael Brantley is baseball's grumpiest player, and the Astros couldn't be happier.
*McTaggart has an inbox in which he discusses Yordan's Rookie of the Year chances, Forrest Whitley's chances of pitching in the postseason, Kyle Tucker unseating Josh Reddick, the chances of bringing back Smith, McHugh, Harris, Rondon, and Miley.
*A.J. Hinch, on Cy Sneed and his four call-ups/send-downs in August: He has such a great attitude. We are going to bring him back in September at some point, and he's going to get an opportunity to pitch a little bit more than he has. He's been a trooper and gotten some frequent-flyer miles and been our insurance policy, and I applaud his attitude.
*Round Rock has a huge series regarding their division this week, beginning with last night's 6-0 win over San Antonio to push the Express' lead over San Antonio to two games. Jose Urquidy struck out eight batters in 5.2 scoreless innings.
*Fayetteville's Luis Garcia last night: 5IP, 0H/0ER, 10K:4BB. He has 40K:9BB in his last 21IP.
No Astros action last night, and we did the Playoff Odds earlier this week, so we'll skip it for a while. The Astros are on pace for 106 wins. Reminder that Houston is 75-40 with a 10-game lead and 47 regular season games left.
If Houston goes 23-24, they'll finish 98-64. Here's what would have to happen for the Astros to lose the division:
Oakland: 34-14
Arlington: 41-7
Anaheim: 43-3
Seattle: Could win out and lose the division by four games.
Do your own math accordingly to project what other teams would have to do if the Astros went XX-XX. The Astros are officially at 100% to win the division.
*Big News of the Day was that the Astros are extending the nets. And if you're upset, then the decision was made by the organization with the sole intent of pissing you empathy-less idiots off.
Never mind that the move could be 20% about fan safety and 80% protection from legal liability for failing to protect fans from Yordan Alvarez Rockets. I'm still for it. The fact that it's safer for thousands of more fans is great. By the way, the girl who got drilled in the Cubs game is still on anti-seizure medication but is improving. If you don't want the net, you probably don't care.
Notables approving of the Astros: Lance McCullers. The Astros: Fan experience is always a top priority for the Astros. The Astros have followed Major League Baseball's guidelines regarding netting while providing fans with a choice as to whether they sit in areas with or without protective netting. These changes will improve the fan's experience and increase the number of seats behind protective netting. Fans will continue to have the option to sit in areas without netting.
By "improving the fan's experience" they mean "making sure you don't leave the game in an ambulance."
*Jake Kaplan says ($) Aaron Sanchez's work with Brent Strom is just beginning.
*Check Chandler Rome's mailbag for the chances of re-signing Gerrit Cole, who gets let go when Peacock returns, Myles Straw's postseason roster spot, Forrest Whitley, and a potential matchup issue with the Dodgers.
*The only contender with an easier schedule than the Astros down the stretch is the Twins. Matt Kelly: The Astros have dominated the A's, winning nine of their first 11 head-to-head matchups. Take at least three of these four games at the Coliseum (Aug 15-18), and Houston can really begin mapping out their stars' rest days before October.
The Astros were off, nothing really happened, yesterday sucked. Good news is we get to do this again on Thursday, just in time to watch The Crazytrain on Kirby play a pre-season game.
Related, here's the playoff schedule. The ALDS will start on October 4 or October 5. Whichever time slot is more convenient for the Yankees, the Astros would get the other one.
*Former Astros Great Tony Sipp rejected an outright assignment to the minors and the Nationals have requested release waivers, meaning he's headed to the open market. If they already brought back Machete, and could use another reliever since Reymin Guduan is apparently an idiot, might they try to get the whole damn band back together?
*Framber threw 6IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:1BB in a 6-3 Round Rock win over Sacramento. Nick Tanielu was 2x3 with a home run and a walk. Kyle Tucker was 1x3 with an RBI.
*Corpus managed only two runs but it was enough to shut out Frisco. Bryan Abreu (5IP) and Cristian Javier (4IP) threw 9IP, 3H/0ER, 13K:5BB - and four of those walks were Abreu's.
Cristian Javier's last ten appearances: 42.1IP, 16H/11ER, 69K:24BB, 2.34 ERA / 0.94 WHIP.
*Fayetteville pitchers walked nine batters but limited the damage in a 13-4 whoopin of Myrtle Beach. Scott Manea was 4x5 with two doubles, a home run, and 3RBI. Corey Julks was 3x4 with four runs scored and 2RBI.
*Quad Cities have scored two runs in the first three games of the series against Kane County, losing last night 3-0. 1-7 in the lineup went 0x22 with 8K.
*Joe Perez (2nd Round - 2017) hit a walkoff home run against Jenrry Mejia - yes, that Jenrry Mejia - as Tri-City beat Lowell. 2017 10th Round pick Kyle Serrano is back after basically two years of injuries, and he's happy the Astros stuck with him (this article is from, like, a month ago, but it's still applicable).
*Evan P. Grant, with a quote from a fan who was a racist tirade at Globe Life Park about what transpired on Saturday, hours after the racist mass shooting in El Paso: He made it perfectly clear during the second inning that he is not a fan of Hispanics. And he just so happened to have a Hispanic family [us] sitting in front of him and another one sitting directly behind him. During the second inning the little boy behind him who looked to be about [her son's] age kicked the back of his chair. And for the next three innings I had to hear him complain about all the illegal immigrants that were surrounding him at the game. That he should kick little Speedy Gonzalez all the way back to Mexico for kicking his seat. That Trump needs to hurry and build the wall and send all these illegals back so they won't be kicking his seat.
This isn't a joke about Dallas. Racists who get triggered by a kid at a baseball game are the joke.
The Astros shook the baseball world yesterday with their acquisitions of Zack Greinke, Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, and Martin Maldonado. More so with the first name, less so with the last three. Still, the Astros apparently played a baseball game. Like, the Indians didn't just forfeit. I don't get it, either. We'll see if they come out to play today. Houston is 69-40, eight games up on Oakland with 53 regular season games to play.
Houston vs. Cleveland Yeah, so the Astros lost. They had a 1-run lead twice (1-0, 4-3) and just couldn't hold on. Cleveland scored seven unanswered runs and hit three three-run home runs off of Jose Urquidy and Collin McHugh. Hinch: Our whole team just struggled with the three-run homer. They hit three of them, and then they added a fourth. Urquidy lived and ultimately caved on the edge a little bit. They won the big swings. It looked at times like he was working around the strike zone, and then it looked like he got in the strike zone and they hit a couple of pitches.
*Urquidy: 4IP, 8H/6ER, 1K:1BB, 2HR. Urquidy only got the Indians to swing and miss five times in 86 pitches thrown. Zack Greinke also pitched yesterday and held the Yankees to 2H/2ER, 7K:3BB in 5IP. I bet Greinke makes the start Urquidy would make next week.
*McHugh: 1IP, 3H/4ER, 2K:1BB, 2HR. Baseball-Reference now has McHugh at a -0.3 bWAR (they may have had him under 0.0 before, I just didn't notice it).
McHugh is simply getting hammered with home runs. He has allowed 12 HR in 60IP in 2019, after allowing 13 HR total in 135.2IP in 2017-2018.
*Francona: There aren't a whole lot of nights you get three three-run homers, especially against Houston...When we beat Houston, we've played a really good game because they're a really good team.
*Devenski-Sneed-Abreu: 3IP, 0H/0ER, 3K:1BB. Bryan Abreu made his major league debut and retired the side on 17 pitches. Shoutout to Bryan Abreu.
*Carlos Correa was 2x4 with a double and a solo home run that opened the scoring for the Astros. Three of his four hits since returning from the IL have been for extra-bases. It's his second two-hit game since coming back
*Jose Altuve was 1x3 with 2BB. In his last 16 games (74 PAs), he has gotten on base 37 times, hitting .448/.500/.761.
*Yuli Gurriel extended his hitting streak to 18 games with a three-run double. In those 18 games he's hitting .411/.434/.740.
On June 8 Gurriel was hitting .252/.283/.382.
In the 41 games since: .365/.402/.725.
*Alex Bregman was 1x3 with a walk. Bregman, July: .233/.402/.452 on a .232 BABIP, 15K:21BB. Unlucky.
Other Astros News *Ryan Pressly was placed on the 10-Day IL nearly two weeks after getting smoked on the knee by a line drive and obviously not looking right his last couple of times out. Hinch: I didn't want him showing up to the ballpark every day not knowing [if he could play]. Throwing in the afternoon and waiting to see if he was feeling good for the game wasn't fair to him or to the team. I talked to him after his throwing session and he just didn't feel right. We all decided it was the best for him.
Trade Reaction
*Notable: the Greinke trade was submitted to the League Office "a couple of seconds" before the deadline. *Gerrit Cole, on the acquisition of Zack Greinke: There was some hooting and hollering. It was like 4:08, I think, is when it broke and AJ came in with a big-ass grin. We were very excited. Hinch: Incredible day for the organization and our team. The energy in our room after a thing like that happens is palpable. You know that what you have in front of you is one of the greatest opportunities to keep the winning ways alive.
Luhnow: Zack Greinke was at the very top of our list in terms of players that we thought could impact our chances to win the World Series this year and could really fit in well on this club for the next couple of years while we still have our entire offensive unit together. McTaggart notes that the Astros now have four starting pitchers with an ERA+ of 140 or higher for the first time since the 1907 Cubs.
More Luhnow, on the return package for Greinke: We gave up four legitimate prospects that we were very excited about. To get a future Hall of Famer like Zack Greinke on our team for the next 2 1/2 years, we had to give up a lot of value, and it was painful. That's why it took so long. We were really resisting giving up all four of those guys and tried different permutations and different replacements, but at the end of the day, that's the deal they insisted on and that's the only deal that was going to get done. We ended up conceding at the last moment. Cole, on Greinke: As a pitcher, I've watched him and tried to learn from him every opportunity I can. I think he's a Hall of Famer and I think he's one of the best pitchers of our generation. Just really a true craftsman in the sense of always evolving, always being forward-thinking. His preparation is off the charts. Durability. Competitiveness. What a pickup. They nailed it.
With Zack Greinke, the @astros now have 3 of the top 5 MLB leaders in WHIP (Verlander 1st, Greinke 2nd, Cole 5th).
The last time a team finished with 3 of the top 5 leaders in WHIP in a season was the 1925 Reds (Dolf Luque, Pete Donohue, Eppa Rixey).#TakeItBack
*Luhnow, on the acquisition of Biagini and Sanchez: We've been interested in Sanchez for a long time and interested in Biagini for a long time. Well that's not a great quote. On Sanchez: Ideally, he's a starter for us next year. Whether or not he's more impactful this year in the rotation or in the bullpen remains to be seen. I'm going to get [Strom] and A.J. to figure that out. His last outing was dominant, and if he does that, it's going to be hard to keep him out of the rotation.
On July 28 against Tampa, Sanchez threw 5.2IP, 6H/4ER, 10K:0BB, putting together a two-start stretch in which he totaled 10.2IP, 11H/5ER, 16K:0BB.
The ugliness of Sanchez's season totals really stems from a few bad starts in June. Let's check the splits, by calendar month (because that makes sense):
Mar/Apr: 31IP, 21H/8ER, 27K:20BB, 2.32 ERA / 1.32 WHIP
May: 29IP, 37H/17ER, 29K:13BB, 5.28 ERA / 1.72 WHIP
June: 27IP, 44H/36ER, 16K:19BB, 12.00 ERA / 2.33 WHIP
July: 25.2IP, 29H/15ER, 27K:7BB, 5.26 ERA / 1.40 WHIP
Luhnow, on Biagini: Quite frankly, we love Biagini. We think he's got a chance to get some important outs for us the rest of the season. Stassi, on getting traded: It's been a whirlwind of emotions. I've spent...some time to reflect on being a part of this organization for so long. These guys, they've been brothers to me since day one. I've been with George since 2013, Bregman ever since he got drafted, Altuve since 2013. I've known these guys for years, and...I'll never forget my time here. Kemp, on getting traded to the Cubs: Leaving that group behind was emotional because of how genuine everyone in that clubhouse was day in and day out. From the parking garage staff, clubhouse staff, to the community relations team, and to the coaches and teammates, each person brought their best attitude each day, and that's why the Astros are one of the best organizations in baseball.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield: When so many front offices are afraid of making a mistake and dealing a prospect who then becomes a star, Jeff Luhnow continues to outmaneuver his peers...The Yankees are good, but the Astros won the day. And just as Verlander beat them twice in the 2017 ALCS, you wonder if Greinke will haunt the Yankees this October.
*FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski does a deep dive into how Greinke has adjusted as he moves into the later stages of his career. Szymborski: Houston doesn't get Greinke cheaply, but this is exactly the sort of trade the Astros needed to make, and the kind of take-no-prisoners aggressiveness the organization has shown when they really want a player. The cost isn't prohibitive; the Astros brought in a star pitcher without giving up a single player who was obviously a top 100 prospect...In a league in which money and prospects are meekly handed out when a team has an opportunity to strike a critical blow, Houston keeps demonstrating why they're one of the best, most focused organizations in baseball today.
*Chandler Rome: The Greinke trade feels like the Verlander trade.
*Jake Kaplan: Ten thoughts on the Astros' Trade Deadline.
*Brian T. Smith: The Astros now feel like World Series favorites.
*Tom Verducci: The Astros just lapped the Dodgers and Yankees. Verducci: By getting pitcher Zack Greinke - the best among more than 70 players who changed teams - Houston declared itself the most nimble, fearless team in baseball...Houston emphatically made itself the favorites to win the World Series, and it did so by acting boldly. In a game gone mad over prospects and relief pitchers, the Astros just traded for one of the best starting pitchers in the game for a third consecutive year.
