Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros beat the Oakland Triple-A's last night 5-1 in a game that felt a whole lot closer than it should have been. The Astros are 25-19, winners of five straight and eight of their last nine games.

The 2022 Astros opened the season with a rotation of Framber-Odorizzi-Verlander-Urquidy-Garcia. They threw 758IP, 52% of the innings Astros pitchers threw in 2022. This year those five have combined to throw 111.2IP, 28.3% of the Innings.

*Oakland is 10-36, a .217 "winning" "percentage." Now, the worst record in Major League history belongs to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who went 20-134 - a .130 winning percentage that saw them finish a wild-ass 84 games back. Jim Hughey, statistically the Spiders' best pitcher, posted a 4-30 record. Crazy Schmit went 2-17. Like, click that link. It's insane. 

But in the "Modern" Era (since 1901), Oakland's bastard grandfather, the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics, hold the honor of the worst winning percentage, going 36-117 (.235) - get this - three years after winning the World Series. In June and July the 1916 A's went 5-47. 

After 46 games the 1916 A's were 15-30-1 (don't ask questions - I don't know). The 2023 A's are five games worse. This will be fun to keep track of every day for the rest of the season.

*Oakland starter Ken Waldichuk came into the game with a 7.02 ERA, though that's inflated by his first two starts of the season, in which he threw 8.2IP, 17H/14ER, 7K:4BB, 7HR allowed. In his next six starts, it was more respectable: 32.1IP, 35H/18ER, 29K:19BB - a 5.01 ERA / 1.67 WHIP. So of course the Astros lowered his season ERA to 6.85. 

*Kyle Tucker had a good night, hitting a two-run shot in the 6th Inning to put the Astros up 4-1 - his first homer since May 5. He ended the night going 2x3 with a double, homer, walk. On May 9, Tucker's slash line was .264/.358/.440. Since then, he's hitting .355/.382/.613. 

Tucker did not know it was his own bobblehead night. Tucker:

The last couple of games, I've felt a little better at the plate with something I've been doing in the cage and trying to bring it out to the field. I feel good at the plate right now.

*Jake Meyers went 2x2 with 2BB - the first time in his career he's been on base four times in a single game. 

*Yordan Alvarez - whom, you'll remember, the Astros acquired in a trade with the Dodgers for Josh Fields - was 2x5 with a double. He's hitting .317/.388/.567 in May, and nine of his last 19 hits have been for extra-bases. He's at a season-high six games without a home run. His 417-foot double in the 4th Inning would have been a home run in 25 of the 30 MLB parks. (Also worth noting that Martin Maldonado's bases-loaded liner to left that was impressively tracked down by JJ Bleday was 105.1mph off the bat and had an xBA of .520).

*Jose Abreu went 1x2 with two walks and a run scored. It's the second time this season that Abreu has drawn two walks in a game. He has raised his OPS 29 points from .515 to .544 in this four-game home stand. His 110.1mph single in the 2nd Inning was the hardest-hit ball of the game, and his hardest-hit ball of the season.

*Jose Altuve was 0x4 with a walk in his season debut, featuring a GIDP. 

*The Astros left 10 men on base after going 2x12 w/RISP - including two innings of leaving the bases loaded. It doesn't feel like it, but the Astros are actually hitting .278/.349/.450 with runners in scoring position - above-average, relative to the rest of the league.

*Brandon Bielak had a nice outing, throwing 5IP for the second straight game, allowing 5H/1ER, 9K:3BB. The nine strikeouts are a career-high, breaking his previous high of 6K, which he had done twice, most recently on May 1. Bielak's last two starts: 10IP, 13H/2ER, 13K:3BB. McTaggart notes that his changeup has been the key to Bielak's recent success.

*Phil Maton extended his impressive start to the season, throwing another scoreless outing - the 17th such outing in 19 appearances. That said, he has allowed at least one baserunner in each of his last seven appearances. 

*Rafael Montero: 1IP, 1H/0ER, 1K:1BB. His last clean outing was on April 28 - nine appearances ago.

*Luis Garcia officially underwent Tommy John Surgery yesterday.

*Mauricio Dubon got some pre-game work in at 1B.

*Jose Altuve on Corpus' Drew Gilbert:

He's ready, man. Wow, beautiful swing, made some good plays...I really love the way him and a few more guys on that team are ready to play in the big leagues.

*Jose Urquidy may start throwing again next week.

*The Score's Travis Sawchuk has a bizarre article about the Astros "decline."

*The Crazy Story of How "Clue" Went From Forgotten Flop to Cult Favorite.

*GQ: The Controversial King of Hardcore Climbing.

*Financial Times: The Secret Lives of MI6's Top Female Spies.

*A Musical Selection, from The Sundays and lead singer Harriet Wheeler - whom I have had a crush on for over 25 years:

Sunday Evening Hot Links

Ah Sunday! The evening the existential dread sets in. 

*Brian McTaggart took a pass at predicting the Opening Day Roster.

*Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro are battery-mates with the 3rd-most games caught in the Majors (2nd, but for a technicality).

*Jake Kaplan: Luis Garcia, Forrest Whitley and the depth the Astros will need to get through the season. Brent Strom:

It's going to take a village to get through this season.

*Jose Urquidy wants to throw 200+ IP this year. 

*David Nuno: Carlos Correa wants to hammer out an extension before the season starts. Correa:

It would be great, but it has to be on their side also. If we can reach an agreement at some point it needs to be [before] the season starts because once the season starts, I don't want to be involved with any negotiations.

Get the full link to the interview here.

*Dusty Baker, on Yordan Alvarez:

He had a cool stroll coming down the hallway. So I was like, well it's hard to have a cool stroll if something's wrong with you.

*Even after both doses of the COVID vaccine, Dusty Baker is still being cautious. Makes sense, 2-0 is the most dangerous lead in sports. 

*Garrett Stubbs is a good boy and is dairy-free and gluten-free. I am neither. 

*JC Correa was out distributing food today.

*Click here to see George Springer in a Blue Jays shirt, if that's something you're in to.

*Former Astros Great Aaron Sanchez signed a deal with the Giants.

*Texas Monthly: The Day Everything Went Wrong.

*Was Bitcoin created by this international drug dealer? Maybe!

*Bring me a movie about Helen Gahagan Douglas ASAP.

*Esquire: The best documentaries on Netflix will change how you see the world.

*A Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

WOW this is really stupid. The Astros had a 2-0 lead against Oakland and the three guys who had MLB experience prior to 2020 managed to completely blow it. Houston is 22-22, 6-16 on the road, and are now 5.5 games back of Oakland with 16 games to play. 

*I know that 2020 is adjacent to the very pit of hell itself, but let's take a look at recent road winning percentages:

2020: 6-16 (.273)

2019: 47-34 (.580)

2018: 57-24 (.704)

2017: 53-28 (.654)

2016: 41-40 (.506)

2015: 33-48 (.407)

2014: 32-49 (.395)

2013: 27-54 (.333)

2012: 20-61 (.247)

2011: 25-56 (.309)

2010: 34-47 (.420)

*Let's look at the pitching lines from last night's "game:"

Garcia/Scrubb/Paredes: 6.2IP, 3H/0ER, 6K:2BB. None of these pitchers had pitched in the Majors before this year.

Perez/James/Pressly: 2IP, 2H/3ER, 1K:5BB. All of these pitchers had pitched in the Majors prior to 2020. 

Josh James, 2020: 11.1IP, 13H/14ER, 14K:16BB. 11.12 ERA / 2.56 WHIP.

The Astros walked the 8-hole catcher, .222-hitting Sean Murphy, three mf times. Dusty:

It's totally debilitating because they live off walks. The last few innings we had walks. We're pitching Murphy like it's Johnny Bench or something...We just gave that game away to them.

Murphy had never walked three times in a game before. 

*Houston is 3-8 in September, 1-7 in their last eight games.

*Houston vs. AL West: 15-13. They're 8-2 against Seattle/Arlington, and 7-11 against Oakland and Anaheim. Morons.

*Last night was the third time this season the Astros have been held to four or fewer hits. It's the 7th time in 44 games the Astros have hit 2+ HR and lost the game. It happened 15 times in the 2019 regular season.

*Luis Garcia who, prior to 2020 had not pitched above High-A Fayetteville, was excellent: 5IP, 1H/0ER, 4K:2BB. Everyone except George Springer owes him a got dang apology. Chandler Rome: Luis Garcia's ascent to the Majors started on top of a parking garage.

*George Springer hit his 38th career lead-off home run, 4th-best all-time in the AL. Springer has a 9-game hitting streak, raising his OPS from .718 to .826 in the process.

*Oakland tied the game on a two-run double that glanced off of Kyle Tucker's glove. Dusty:

It looked like Tucker had caught the ball, and the next thing I know, the ball is rolling around in the bullpen. That was the first downer. Like I said, we just gave that game away to them. 

*Something named a "Justin Verlander" threw a 50-55-pitch bullpen session in Houston yesterday.

*Martin Maldonado wore cleats honoring Roberto Clemente. Bregman's efforts to help the Houston Food Bank led to his nomination for the Roberto Clemente Award. He's not going to win it because of trash cans in 2017, but the man helped raise almost $2 million dollars to help those in need in Houston.

*Albert Pujols tied Craig Biggio for 5th place on the all-time doubles list, with 668.

*The Braves scored two weeks' worth of runs (for the 2020 Astros) last night against Miami.

*FanGraphs' Ben Clemens: Gerrit Cole's Bummer Summer.

*Like Jeff Blogwell, I am absolutely slammed. There has been no time for Reading For Pleasure. Here's a Musical Selection:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

 Well that was very stupid. Lance McCullers didn't record an out, the Astros rallied late, but fell even later in extra innings where the bullpen had to record all the outs prior to a double-header today. Houston is 21-16, 5-10 on the road. Houston is 2-6 in extra-inning games.

*The Astros were 3x24 with runners in scoring position. Reddick, Maldonado, and Toro each had three ABs with RISP, and all three came up empty. After scoring three runs in the top of the 9th to tie it, they were 0x6 w/RISP in the 10th and 11th Innings. Dusty:

We did fight back in the ninth, but a lot of times you lose the game before the ninth. It was very frustrating tonight to see opportunities squandered.

*Abraham Toro was 0x4 with two strikeouts. In 24 games in 2020, Toro is "hitting" .149/.230/.299. His 47 wRC+ ranks 284th out of 308 MLB players with at least 60 PAs. 

*Michael Brantley had his 10th multi-hit game of the season. 

*Lance McCullers failed to record an out for the first time in his career, walking three and allowing two hits to the first five batters he faced. Five of his 18 pitches were strikes. McCullers:

Just dealing with a weird period right now, kind of started a few days ago. But I'll be fine. My stuff wasn't there...Dusty didn't want me to have to battle through that in this period and kind of save it for another day.

McCullers: 0.0IP, 2H/3ER, 0K:3BB

Bullpen: 10.1IP, 5H/3R (2ER), 10K:8BB

McCullers told Chandler Rome:

I had TJ and also had some cleanout in the back. They basically split your triceps and go in there and shave bone and take out old scar tissue. I'm just dealing with a little bit of discomfort and just an awkward feeling back there.

Every part of my reproductive organs retreated to the safety of the inside of my body just reading that. 

*Luis Garcia - who had not pitched above Fayetteville - made his MLB debut in relief and threw 4.1IP, 1H/1ER, 2K:3BB. Dusty, on Garcia:

He saved us. Had he gone out there and spit the bit, I would have really been upside down for [Saturday]. The whole bullpen did an outstanding job. The kid saved us.

*Jose Altuve is likely out for the weekend with a knee sprain, and an IL stint hasn't been determined yet.

*Game 4 Hero Jose Urquidy said he was quarantined with COVID-19 symptoms for 35-40 days in Houston.

*Let's get weird! Brandon Bielak will start Game 1 today, Game 4 Hero Jose Urquidy will start Game 2. With Peacock close to returning, this may be Bielak's last chance to impress and stay on the team.

*Bregman is close. Bregman:

I'm ready and I'm excited. Hopefully, that's soon. I'm just working out with the trainers and strength coaches, and they've done an amazing job helping me out. And I'm looking forward to it, looking forward to getting back to doing what I love and competing and playing the game.

Bregman hasn't played since leaving the game on August 19. After an 0x5 on July 29, Bregman was hitting .174/.321/.348. From July 31-Aug 19 he hit .304/.392/.551. The Astros are 7-5 since he's been on the IL. 

*Austin Pruitt - who was acquired from the Rays a matter of days before Luhnow was terminated, leading to the Rays' James Click (Jiminy Clicket) taking over the reins - had surgery to repair a hairline fracture in his right elbow, and will be out until early 2021. We also find that Joe Biagini was optioned to the alternate training site, with Chris Devenski activated.

Biagini, with Toronto: 309.1IP, 340H/163ER, 276K:115BB, 4.74 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 4.28 FIP

Biagini, with Houston: 19IP, 31H/22ER, 14K:13BB, 10.42 ERA/2.32 WHIP, 8.56 FIP

Biagini, 2020: 4.1IP, 10H/10ER, 4K:4BB, 20.77 ERA /3.23 WHIP.

Biagini has made 17 appearances for the Astros. He has allowed a baserunner in 15 of them, and didn't allow a hit in just four. His 10.42 ERA is the 4th-worst in Astros history among relievers with at least 10IP thrown, behind Felipe Paulino, Stephen Randolph, and Casey Daigle.

*Just a bloodbath of Former Astros Greats as Domingo Santana was outrighted and Jake Elmore was released.

*Roger Clemens talked to SI about what he learned from Tom Seaver. Tom Seaver and the enduring hope of the 1969 Mets.

*It is one week until Leeds United opens the Premier League season at Liverpool. I'm already shaking.

*Psyche: How to be indistractable.

*Wired: How to solve a Rubik's Cube in five seconds or less

*Black Troops were welcome in Britain, but Jim Crow wasn't: The Race Riot of One Night in 1943.

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Astros won both sides of a double-header and the Roggits won by 34. It was, as Ice Cube once expressed, a good day. Houston is 19-14, 2.5 games behind Oakland and 6.5 games up on Arlington for 2nd place.

Game 1

4-2 win. Kyle Tucker was 2x3 with a 3-run home run. Lance McCullers threw 6IP, 6H/2R (1ER), 7K:1BB. Ryan Pressly needed eight pitches to shut down the 7th. The Astros got five extra-base hits. Jose Altuve was 0x3 with a strikeout. Springer cracked a double. Jack Mayfield was 2x3. Dusty Baker, on Kyle Tucker:

He's actually carrying us right now. I'm glad he is. He's coming into a zone. He's playing with a lot of confidence. He's driving in some big runs.

McCullers, since allowing 8ER in 3.2IP against Arizona on August 5 (four starts): 

23.2IP, 17H/7ER, 21K:6BB, 0HR. 2.66 ERA / 0.97 WHIP.

McCullers:

I was really happy with the changeup today. And my breaking ball and really most of my stuff. I made a little adjustment midweek. I threw two bullpens this week with the hurricane days, and I made a little adjustment with my front side. It felt like it was coming out more consistent on that two-seam line.

Game 2

After a solo home run in the 1st inning, the Astros scored the next five runs and finished with a 6-3 win. Springer, Altuve, Brantley, and Maldonado had two hits each. Springer hit his first home run since August 19, and his first at Minute Maid Park since July 25. Number of games played when Springer hit his 5th home run of the season:

2020: 26

2019: 17

2018: 28

2017: 9

2016: 26

2015: 28

Kyle F. Tucker was 1x4 with a bases-clearing triple. In his last ten games, Kyle Tucker is hitting .484/.579/1.226, a 1.805 OPS. Tucker:

I've been seeing the ball real well. I haven't chased a lot of pitches...If you're not chasing pitches, and you're getting pitches over the plate to hit, you'd be more productive that way.

Zack Greinke threw 5IP, 6H/3ER, 6K:0BB, 2HR. Yesterday was the first time Greinke had allowed four extra-base hits as an Astro. Greinke:

I thought a lot of guys played good today. For me it was nice seeing pretty much the whole team playing good...It hasn't quite come together that good, I didn't think. It has started to more recently, but today was just a really good day.

Ryan Pressly is the first MLB player to record saves in both games of a double-header since Todd Jones in 1995.

*FanGraphs gives the A's a 69.6% chance of winning the division, and the Astros a 30.3% chance, but the Astros are at 98.7% to make the playoffs. At 7.6% the Astros have the highest odds in the AL of winning the World Series.

*Aledmys Diaz made his return to the lineup for the first time since the 5th Inning of Game 1 after injuring his groin. In that link, we find that Luis Garcia was called up, another young guy who hasn't pitched above Low-A. That said, Garcia has struck out 284 batters in 205IP in his career. And you can click it to read what Dusty had to say about tomorrow's Trade Deadline.

*Vice: The broken algorithm that poisoned American transportation.

*Wired: Are your kids learning virtually? This gear may help.

*Many of you who have been around These Parts for a while know I love to run. I haven't run in almost two months thanks to a jacked up foot that won't heal (I'm in a boot) because I am A Ninny. I have a Google Map created where every time I go for a run, I put a placemark on a map in an effort to run from the Texas/Louisiana border to El Paso. Outside Magazine says that's not a good idea: Stop counting your running mileage.

*A Musical Selection:

Five Astros Minor-Leaguers

I picked five Astros minor-leaguers whose 2020 season I'm excited about. This isn't the Five Best Minor-Leaguers In The System, or anything like that, just five dudes I'm looking forward to following in 2020...

Valente Bellozo

Bellozo just turned 20 years old and made his domestic debut in 2019. In 58.1IP, Bellozo allowed 35H/11ER, 69K:12BB for a 1.70 ERA/0.81 WHIP with 10.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He has not allowed a home run in 110 professional innings pitched. Obviously it's early, but I'm looking forward to what he can do at Quad Cities to start 2020, and get to Fayetteville mid-season.

Willy Collado

Really interested in Willy Collado's 2020 season. In 69 nice IPs in 2019, Collado - a reliever - allowed 56H/18ER, 78K:20BB, a 1.83 ERA/1.10 WHIP. Collado allowed three home runs all season. By the time he got to Corpus (2.84 ERA/1.18WHIP) he was 3+ years younger than the average hitter he was facing. He had thrown 77.2IP from 2016-2018 total, so 2020 should see a full slate of innings from him.

Brett Conine

Conine, an 11th Round pick in 2018 out of Cal State-Fullerton, will be in his Age 23 season in 2020. In 63.1IP for Fayetteville in 2019 Conine allowed 52H/17ER, 80K:17BB, a 2.42 ERA/1.09 WHIP. He has 171K:40BB in 146 career pro innings. He got 18IP in Corpus at the end of 2019 and allowed 20H/4ER, 14K:6BB. Really interested in seeing what he can do in a full season at Corpus with some Round Rock thrown in there.

Luis Garcia

Garcia has thrown 205IP in the Astros organization in his career with a 2.50 ERA / 1.17 WHIP, but the strikeouts are alarming: 284 strikeouts for a 12.5 K/9. Garcia just turned 23 and at Fayetteville, where he was just over a year younger than his competition, he struck out 108 batters in 65.2IP. The walks are an issue - 4.1 per 9 innings - but he seemingly has the stuff to overpower hitters. Refine that location, and Garcia is A Guy.

Colton Shaver

Shaver is fascinating. A 39th-Round pick in 2017, and there were only 40 rounds, out of BYU where he had seasons of a 1.000 and 1.034 OPS in 2015 and 2016. Shaver retreated a little bit (.837 OPS) in 2017, which probably led to the 39th Round pick. Shaver had a .755 OPS with 10 home runs between the Appalachian League and the New York-Penn League in 2017, then a .724 OPS between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. 2019 was his coming out party. Shaver hit 15 home runs in 55 games at Corpus and posted a .223/.357/.500 line. I like late-round draft picks that contribute, so if Colton Shaver can hit for a better average and still draw those walks (34 in 227 PAs), things could get fun.

Monday Morning Hot Links

Kind of a light news day, and thank God for that, after he Astros enjoyed an actual off-day after playing 17 games in 17 days. There are four off-days remaining in the regular season.

As mentioned previously, the Astros have a 49-16 home record in 2019. At home vs the AL West, the Astros are 23-2. The two losses? A 5-4 loss to Anaheim on July 5. A 4-3 loss in 11 innings to Oakland on July 23.

If we're scoreboard watching...

Oakland beat the piss out of the Royals, 19-4.
New York beat the Mariners, 5-4.
Los Angeles lost to the Padres, 4-3.

In Other Words:
Los Angeles: -
New York: -0.5
Houston: -1.0
Oakland: - 10.0

The Astros need to go 15-15 to hit the 100-win mark for the 3rd straight season, and would be the first team to do so since New York did it from 2002-2004. Bregman's ready for it:
It's going to be a good race to the finish, and then real baseball starts. Looking forward to it.

Hinch:
We want the best record; we want home field. To be honest with you, we won the World Series on the road in Game 7. It would have been nice to have that at home at Minute Maid, so we want the best record in baseball.

*Playoff Odds (Note: I'm doing this about 4:40am Central. Some sites (B-Pro, B-Ref) haven't updated from last night's games, but you'll get the basic idea. Click the links later to see how it changed, if you want.)

Site	Proj. Rec.	% to win ALW	% to win AL	% to win WS
B-Ref	103-59	99.1%	32.1%	15.2%
FanGraphs	105-57	99.9%	44.2%	29.6%
538	104-58	>99%	-	24.0%
BPro	104-58	99.8%	-	23.6%

Nothing much has changed regarding these numbers from the last time we did this, just over two weeks ago. FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight still think the Astros have the best chance of winning the World Series. Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference still give the edge to the Dodgers.

*Jake Kaplan says these 11 players are fighting for a playoff roster spot down the stretch. And Ken Rosenthal has some thoughts on the Verlander v. Fenech title bout. (Both $)

*ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, on how the Astros just keep getting better and better.

*Hunter Atkins: Michael Brantley is baseball's grumpiest player, and the Astros couldn't be happier.

*McTaggart has an inbox in which he discusses Yordan's Rookie of the Year chances, Forrest Whitley's chances of pitching in the postseason, Kyle Tucker unseating Josh Reddick, the chances of bringing back Smith, McHugh, Harris, Rondon, and Miley.

*You need this new Yordan shirt from BreakingT:

*A.J. Hinch, on Cy Sneed and his four call-ups/send-downs in August:
He has such a great attitude. We are going to bring him back in September at some point, and he's going to get an opportunity to pitch a little bit more than he has. He's been a trooper and gotten some frequent-flyer miles and been our insurance policy, and I applaud his attitude. 

*Round Rock has a huge series regarding their division this week, beginning with last night's 6-0 win over San Antonio to push the Express' lead over San Antonio to two games. Jose Urquidy struck out eight batters in 5.2 scoreless innings.

*Fayetteville's Luis Garcia last night: 5IP, 0H/0ER, 10K:4BB. He has 40K:9BB in his last 21IP.

*Bad news for me: Apparently getting six hours of sleep is just as bad as not sleeping at all.

*How to become a great impostor.

*Esquire: Inside the twisted, worldwide hunt for a $7m stolen car.

*Wired: America's decades-old obsession with nuking hurricanes.

*A Musical Selection: