Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Fresh off of getting swept by the GDKC Royals, the Astros got a vintage Verlander performance last night in Seattle. Houston is 86-71, 2.5 back of The Colony, 1.5 up on Seattle. There are five games remaining in the regular season.

*AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore (97-59)

2. The Colony (88-68)

3. Minnesota (83-73)

4. Tampa (95-62)

5. Toronto (87-69)

6. Houston (86-71)

7. Seattle (84-72)

*AL West Division Odds / Postseason Odds:

FanGraphs:

The Colony: 86.7% / 98.7%

 

Houston: 10.9% / 75.3%

Seattle: 2.4% / 28.4%

Baseball-Reference:

The Colony: 83.5% / 98.3%

Houston: 11.7% / 76.7%

Seattle: 4.8% / 26.4% 

Keep in mind: The Astros have the tie-breaker against the Rangers. So in order for the Astros to win the Division, they would need to match the Rangers' record. You can safely assume that the Anaheim Possums are going to do exactly that, so the Mariners are going to have to do something in the last series of the season, and the Astros can't afford to...be the 2023 Astros. 

Houston is 2.5 back of The Colony. If the Astros just win out, it puts them at 91-71. The Rangers would have to go 4-2 to finish a game ahead of Houston. If the Astros go 4-1, the Rangers would have to go 3-3. It's a tough, uphill battle. Unless! the Astros actually want the Wild Card, in which case they'd get the advantage of not playing at home, but also getting the Twins and not the Rays. Chess, not checkers?

After a 21-6 August, the Mariners are 8-15 in September. They're 5-15 against teams not named "Oakland" in September. 

The Game

Dusty:

It's one. We got five to go. Hopefully, we come back out tomorrow and do the same thing.

*Houston "improved" to 3-8 against Seattle in 2023. The Astros are 57-33 (.633) all-time at Seattle.

*Houston is 61-22 when scoring first in 2023.  

*Verlander did what they brought him back to do: 8IP, 3H/1ER, 8K:1BB. And on only 96 pitches, 65 of which he threw for strikes. It's the 56th time in his career that he's gotten 24 outs and allowed only an earned run (or less) - the 12th time he's done it for the Astros. 

Opponents who have gotten shut down to the tune of at least 8IP of 0-1ER baseball by Verlander, career:

1: Arizona/Houston/Milwaukee/NY Mets/Philadelphia/The Colony

2: Kansas City/NY Yankees/Pittsburgh/Tampa/Toronto

3: Baltimore/Boston/Oakland

4: Seattle

5: Cleveland

6: Anaheim

7: Chicago White Sox/Minnesota

Verlander:

This is just one of those years where nothing has been easy. Maybe catch the right timing here and this can be the start of something, hopefully.

Alvarez, on Verlander:

Incredible. That's obviously what this team needed. He knew that, and going out there and putting the team in that type of position was great.

*A Full and Complete List of Astros Starting Pitchers to throw 8IP+ in 2023:

Framber Valdez: 4

Justin Verlander: 1

It's the first time an Astros starter has recorded 24 outs since Framber's no-hitter on August 1. Verlander's 79 Game Score is the highest by an Astros starter since Framber's 78 on August 25. 

It was Verlander's 256th career win, by far the most by an active pitcher (Zack Greinke's 224 is 2nd). He's tied for 42nd all-time with Former Astros Great Andy Pettitte. 264 wins gets him in the Top 40 all-time.

*Bryan Abreu closed out the 9th with a scoreless inning. That is now 25 straight scoreless outings for Bryan Abreu, dating back to July 15. Only six pitchers have a 25+ game scoreless streak for the Astros:

1. Ryan Pressly: 40 games (Aug 15, 2018-May 20, 2019)

2. Ryne Stanek: 30 games (Apr 29-July 22, 2022)

3. Joe Sambio: 27 games (May 3-July 14, 1979)

4. Will Harris: 26 games (April 9-June 8, 2016)

5. Billy Wagner: 25 games (Aug 13, 1999-April 16, 2000)

5. Bryan Abreu: 25 games (July 18, 2023-present)

It's the longest active streak in the Majors, and only two other pitchers have managed to throw at least 25 consecutive scoreless outings: Cleveland's Sam Hentges, who saw his 25-game scoreless streak end on September 24; and San Diego's Josh Hader, whose 26-game scoreless streak ended on August 29. 

*The 107 pitches thrown in a 9-inning game by Verlander/Abreu are the 4th-lowest pitch total by the Astros in 2023. 

*It's the 36th time in 2023 that Astros pitchers have held their opponent to 0-1BB. They're 19-17 in those games...somehow.

*Yordan Alvarez was 2x4 with his 30th home run of the season. It's the third season in a row Yordan has hit 30+ homers. 

Three or More Consecutive Seasons of 30+ Homers, Astros history:

8: Jeff Bagwell (1996-2003)

3: Yordan Alvarez (2021-2023)

That's it. Kyle Tucker needs one more home run to join this list.

*Alex Bregman was 0x5. He's now gone five straight games without a hit, hitless in seven of his last eight. His five-game hitless streak ties a career-high, set in 2021 and 2016. Since his 3-hit game against Kansas City on September 16, Bregman has one hit in his last 28 Plate Appearances, but with 3K:9BB. The Astros are 28-31 when Bregman does not get a hit. 

*Martin Maldonado was 2x3 with a walk - his 15th multi-hit game of the season. He raised his OPS from .601 to .612 last night. 

*Mauricio Dubon opened the scoring with a base hit to score Jose Abreu, who ran 270 feet like a big boy. Alvarez, on Dubon's hit:

Very big. Having the runner on third there with nobody out and then having two outs, getting him in, I think, gave the team second wind. So it was very big to get it all started.

Other Stuff

*Ronel Blanco and Will Wagner were named the PCL's Pitcher and Player of the Week, respectively.

*The Beatles' "Abbey Road" was released in the UK 54 years ago today.

*Imagine giving any kind of shit about who Travis Kelce is dating.

*This is the most affordable mountain town in the West.

*How Jason Isbell finished his degree at the University of Memphis.

*Austria Salzburg vs. Red Bull Salzburg: A Derby 18 years in the making.

*Frank Lloyd Wright designed one theatre. Fkn Dallas let it fall into disrepair.

*What To Watch, September 26:

Carabao Cup: Crystal Palace @ Manchester United: 2pm Central

Rangers @ Useless-Ass Angels: 8:38pm 

Astros @ Mariners: 9:05pm

*A Musical Selection:

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Okay, Astros...you have ten games to figure it out. Houston lost. At home. Again. Theyre 84-68, a ridiculously stupid 38-39 at home. The Rangers and Mariners both won. Idiots. Houston has lost 10 of their last 13 games at home.

*AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore (95-56)

2. Houston (84-68)

3. Minnesota (80-72)

4. Tampa (93-59)

5. Toronto (84-67)

6. Coppell (83-68)

7. Seattle (83-68)

*AL West Odds

FanGraphs:

Houston: 51.8%

Seattle: 30.2%

Coppell: 18.0%

*Postseason Odds. Three of the following will make the playoffs:

Houston: 89.6%

Toronto: 82.7%

Coppell: 64.9%

Seattle: 62.7%

The Game

*What a nightmare. The Astros never had the lead, losing 2-0, tied 2-2, losing 5-2, 5-3, 7-3, 7-5, 9-5. Houston was 2x12 with runners in scoring position. 

*Houston has lost six of their last eight games, and 14 of their last 19 home games. This is guaranteed to be the Astros' worst home record since 2014. Dusty:

I've got concern, but concern is not going to solve the issue. We've got four more games here, and we're going to have to figure it out. I don't know exactly what it is. We've tried to put our finger on it. 

Well I mean it's only been 77 games at home so far this season. That's a lot of fingering. 

*It's the Astros 83rd game in 2023 in which they've scored 5+ runs. They're 69-14 in those games. 

*It's the second time in 2023 that Houston hit 3+ home runs and lost. 

*Kyle Tucker hit his 28th home run of the season and now has an AL-leading (and career high) 108 RBI. With 28 steals, he needs two more homers and two steals to join the 30/30 Club.

*Alex Bregman hit his 24th home run of the season - his highest HR total since hitting 41 in 2019. Bregman, on the 2023 Astros:

It's a good league. You better show up and do it or you're not going to get the results you want and you're going to be sitting on your ass in October instead of playing. It comes down to doing it, that's it.

*Jose Altuve was 2x4 to collect his 100th hit of the season. It's his 4th straight multi-hit game, he's slashing .474/.500/.842. The Astros are 1-3 in these games.

*Yordan Alvarez had back-to-back hitless game for the first time since May 31-June 1. 

*Baltimore put up 10 hits, a night after racking up 16 hits. It's the first time the pitching staff has allowed back-to-back double-digit hit games since doing it in four straight between August 19-22. 

*Mid-Town Hunter Brown: 5.1IP, 6H/7ER, 5K:2BB (although Phil Maton allowed two inherited runners to score).

Brown, since the All-Star Break: 12 games, 57.2IP, 59H/39ER, 63K:20BB, 13HR. 6.09 ERA / 1.37 WHIP. 

It's his 3rd start with a Game Score under 40 in his last five starts. Brown:

I thought they spoiled some really good pitches. And then they made me pay for the mistakes that I made tonight. I think that was probably the biggest difference, you know?

Yes. I do know.

*Shoutout to Bennett Sousa, appearing in his second game as an Astro: 1.2IP, 0H/0ER, 3K:0BB.

*Phil Cuzzi was throwing people out last night.

*Michael Brantley didn't play for a second straight day due to being "a little sore."

*Cool story from Chandler re: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde and Astros Manager-in-Waiting Joe Espada.

*FanGraphs: J.P. France embraces his inner updog underdog.

*ESPN says that "staying afloat" is the Astros' biggest success in 2023, while Jose Abreu was the biggest failure.

*Will Wagner - Billy's son (how am I just now finding this out?) got promoted to Sugar Land and went 2x4 with a double last night in his Triple-A debut.

*Cavan Biggio is stepping up for Toronto.

*The New Yorker: The Rock Stars Singing About Shohei Ohtani

*What To Watch, September 20:

FC Union Berlin @ Real Madrid: 11:45am Central

Red Sox @ Rangers: 1:05pm 

Orioles @ Astros: 1:10pm

Leeds United @ Hull: 1:45pm

PSV Eindhoven @ Arsenal: 2pm

Manchester United @ Bayern Munich: 2pm

Mariners @ A's: 2:37pm

Blue Jays @ Yankees: 6:05pm

Vancouver @ Houston Dynamo: 7:30pm

*A Musical Selection:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

There will be no Hot Links tomorrow (Sunday) as I will be returning from a wedding in which I've spoken maybe six words to the bride and have never met the groom. Things are great. The Astros beat the Angels 6-2 to improve to 34-23. The Rangers obviously won again so Houston is still 2.5 back. Houston goes to South Ardmore July 1-3. 

*Houston is 6-2 in their last eight games and have won 17 of their last 22 games.

*Anaheim is 13-30 against Houston since the beginning of the 2021 season.

*Yordan Alvarez hit a two-run home run in the 1st Inning to bring him to 50 RBI in 2023, in his 51st game (the 57th game of the Astros season). After 51 games, 2006 Lance Berkman was at 46 RBI.

*Chas McCormick went 3x4 - his first three-hit game since October 5, 2022.

*Corey Julks hit his 4th home run of the season, and the first one that featured a runner on base when it happened.

*Kyle Tucker was 2x4 with a double and an RBI. He's 5x8 with three doubles in these last two games against the Angels. 

*Framber shoved: 7IP, 5H/0ER, 7K:1BB. Framber, since giving up 4ER in 4IP against the Cubs on May 15: 3GS, 22IP, 13H/1ER, 19K:4BB.

Shohei Ohtani vs Framber, career: 4x31, .129/.270/.226.

Mike Trout vs Framber, career: 2x19, .105/.292/.105.

Framber, on facing Shohei Ohtani:

I definitely get excited sometimes pitching against Ohtani. Obviously, he's probably the best player in the league right now - the MVP. But whenever I go up there, I see it as, I'm pitching against his teammates, and my teammates are the ones that also help me beat him, as well.

Danielle Lerner: How Framber cleaned up his defense.

*Phil Maton gave up his first earned run since May 3, allowing three hits in the process. He had allowed three hits in his previous seven games combined. 

*Drew Gilbert has some elbow discomfort, Will Wagner had hamate bone surgery, and Forrest F. Whitley will be out 3-4 months with his right lat strain, effectively ruling him out of playing for the Astros this season. Dana Brown blamed it on something with his delivery.

*Tyler Brown was promoted from Corpus to Sugar Land. His numbers are a little Yikes, but he had 19 strikeouts in 19.1IP for Corpus.

*Shoutout to Former Astros Great Jon Singleton, who was recalled by the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday. He's hitting .258/.384/.483 for Triple-A Nashville this season. It'll be his first major-league game since October 2, 2015.

*The Ringer: Dril is everyone. More specifically, he's a guy named Paul.

*A Musical Selection, because it's been stuck in my head for six weeks: