Wednesday, July 31, 2019

How does payroll shake out going forward?

I have always been happy to spend Jim Crane's money. And let's not forget this: The Astros said they would spend when the time was right. The organization has been honest with fans throughout this entire process, from Erik Bedard being the highest-paid player on the 2013 Astros (at $1.15m) to...this. Anyhow, here's how payroll shakes out over the next few years:

Justin Verlander$33.0m$33.0mFA-
Jose Altuve$29.0m$29.0m$29.0m$29.0m
Zack Greinke~$22.0m~$22.0mFA-
Michael Brantley$16.0mFA--
Alex Bregman$13.0m$13.0m$13.0m$30.5m
Josh Reddick$13.0mFA--
Ryan Pressly$8.75m$8.75mFA-
Yuli Gurriel$8.4mARBARBFA

Arbitration-Eligible after 2019: George Springer, Roberto Osuna, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Aledmys Diaz, Brad Peacock, Jake Marisnick, Chris Devenski. 2019 Salary: $36.44m.

Free Agents after 2019: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, Collin McHugh, Robinson Chirinos, Wade Miley, Will Harris. 2019 Salary: $46.27m

B-Ref Post-2019 Payroll Estimate: $171.2m

2020 Payroll Notes: The Astros are going to pay significantly for Springer's last arbitration year. Osuna will get a raise, as will Correa, Diaz, Peacock, and Marisnick. Those arbitration guys might match, or slightly exceed, the amount of money cleared by free agent departures. I don't see anyone just getting non-tendered from that arbitration list. Who do the Astros try to keep from the Free Agent list? Gerrit Cole, sure. Miley, maybe. Harris, I'm okay with that.

Arbitration-Eligible after 2020: Yuli Gurriel, Chris Devenski, Roberto Osuna, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Aledmys Diaz.

Free Agents after 2020: Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, George Springer, Brad Peacock, Jake Marisnick. 2020 Salary: $29m, but we don't know what Springer/Peacock/Marisnick will make in arbitration.

Post-2020 B-Ref Salary Estimate: $142.8m

2021: It's hard to project too far out what the Astros will do with future trades, extensions, free agents, etc. So I'll just give you the Post-2021 B-Ref Salary Estimate: $128.7m.

2022: Same. $124.1m.

2023: Same. $119.8m.

If the Astros are trying to stay under $200m, there are ways they can do that. Extending Springer AND Cole is not necessarily out of the question.