Monday, May 22, 2017

Why isn't Kyle Tucker in Corpus yet?

The average Carolina League hitter is 22.5 years old and is hitting .253/.328/.388. Kyle Tucker is 20 years old and is hitting .311/.401/.603. Why is he still in Buies Creek?

Tucker is a RF, and Corpus' RF - 24-year old Drew Ferguson (19th Round - 2015) is holding his own with a .313/.391/.433 slash line through 39 games (150 ABs). And the average Texas Leaguer is just a shade over 24 years old, so Tucker would be facing pitchers who were basically four years older than he is whereas Ferguson is right on the average age of a Texas League player.

In just his third professional season, and let's not forget that Tucker has only 928 PAs as a professional - 57 games at High-A between Lancaster and Buies Creek - there's not a need to force the issue. There's a domino effect at play here, too. Fresno has been playing Teoscar Hernandez and Preston Tucker at RF. Teoscar Hernandez is hitting .287/.364/.521. Preston Tucker, Kyle's older brother, is working back from a shoulder injury and is hitting .261/.291/.438. Luhnow isn't likely to send Ferguson and his .824 OPS to Buies Creek, where he would be two years older than his competition.

There are only two players in the Texas League still in their Age 20 season, with polar opposites in terms of results:
Michael DeLeon (who plays for the Ramgers affiliate in Frisco) is hitting .240/.282/.315.
Luis Urias (who plays for the Padres affiliate in San Antonio) is hitting .344/.429/.485 with 20K:25BB.

Perhaps there's a reason 20-year olds don't typically spend much time in the Texas League. Obviously if Tucker keeps the 1.000+ OPS up long-term, then he'll need to be challenged further, but there's not an obvious reason to bump him up yet.

6 comments:

Adam said...

I think there is a good chance we make a major trade later in the season with Tucker being the centerpiece (Archer, Quintana, Cole, etc). Might as well keep him in A+ ball and have him pad his stats some more. If he gets promoted to AA, then hits .180, his trade value might be effected slightly.

SDsportsjunkie said...

I don't see Tucker the Younger being included in any SP package. It is very likely that Aoki and Reddick are gone by 2019. Who will join Springer and Fisher in the OF (assuming Jake never hits enough to win a starting spot)? Teoscar? Tucker the Elder? Aplin? Ferguson? Laureano? If he continues his current trajectory, I say it could very well be Tucker the Younger.

Anonymous said...

IF Tucker the Younger is not trade, chances are quite good Fisher will be.

Anonymous said...

Reddick is signed through 2020. If we're trading for a premier starting pitcher there is no doubt that Kyle Tucker would have to be included in the package. He is our best trade piece by far - especially now with the struggles of Martes.

ABlindHog said...

Tucker is an elite prospect. To include him in a trade for anything less than a legit Ace would be a travesty. I would be fine if the return for him included a young controllable reasonably priced Ace with a little upside, but can't imagine why anyone would trade such a pitcher away.

John Martin said...

I don't see Tucker the Younger being moved for anything less than an ace with multiple years of control. Even then, if the team believes Tucker can be in the majors by his age 22 season, which isn't unreasonable at this point, he really would be untouchable

I think more likely as Anon1 mentioned that Fisher is the OF piece the team would prefer to move in a deal this year... not that we need to trade since obviously Peacock is now an ace with last night being totally sustainable long term.