The J.R. Towles era has come to a swift end

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune's Joe Christensen tweeted that the Twins have signed J.R. Towles to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.

Ahhh, Justin Richard. The promise you had! The ways you would tease us! You're now a Twin. No longer will we confuse your appearance with Chase Budinger.

Over five seasons - three of those stints totaling fewer than 53 plate appearances - Towles hit .187/.267/.315. But man, on September 20, 2007, we thought we saw Johnny Bench. Do you not remember that game? It was a meaningless one, although anytime the Astros beat the Cardinals 18-1 it can hardly be described as "meaningless."

It was Towles' sixth career major-league appearance. He started it off with a two-run double to left in the top of the 2nd. And a two-run single to left in the top of the 4th. And then an RBI ground-rule double to right in the top of the 6th. And was hit by a pitch in the 7th. And drew an RBI walk in the 8th. And then topped it off with a two-run homer in the top of the 9th.

The result? Six plate appearances: a walk, an HBP, four hits (two doubles, a homer, a single), eight RBIs.

But what was to come was not pretty. If you take out that one game, from 2008-11 Towles hit .168/.251/.289, bouncing back and forth between Houston and Triple-A/Double-A, where in parts of four seasons, he hit a maddening .286/.389/.443. But his days were effectively done when, on May 5, 2010 Greg Lucas brought the thunder about Towles, following his demotion all the way to Corpus. He wrote:

J.R. Towles is no longer an Astro because pitchers don’t like working with him. It has not been a secret within the Astro clubhouse that at least two starters—one with significant prominence—have had problems communicating with J.R. Everything from pace of the game, to targets offered, to being on the same page contributed to the split.

So fare thee well, J.R. Towles. If anyone has ever needed a change of scenery, it's you.

The Common Man hands out the Bagwell Punishment

Hardball Talk linked to this today, but it's definitely worth a re-link: Nine sportswriters accused of plagiarizing their thoughts on Bagwell.

The task facing Luhnow

ESPN's Christina Kahrl has a good recap of what's facing new Astros GM Jeff Luhnow.

Stavinoha released

Zach Levine is reporting that recent minor league signee Nick Stavinoha has been granted a release to pursue opportunities in Japan. Not an unusual move, but a little more surprising given that he joined the Cardinals organization while new GM Jeff Luhnow was with St. Louis.

Jeff Bagwell: 1993 to 1994

This whole Hall of Fame/Jeff Bagwell stuff has me all riled up. I'm sure that the writers who actually give enough of a crap to check out Bagwell's Baseball-Reference page looked at his jump from 1993 to 1994 as enough "proof" to suspect something was going on with Bagwell's body. Let's examine, shall we?

In 142 games (609 PAs) in 1993, Bagwell posted the following:
.320/.388/.516, with 20 homers, (61 XBH), 73K:62BB

In 1994, Bagwell played 110 games (strike-shortened season), with 479 PAs, posting:
.368/.451/.750, 39 homers (73 XBH), 65K:65BB

That's a significant jump - 19 more home runs in 130 fewer PAS. If we use, you know, a calculator, we know that Bagwell hit homers in 1993 at a rate of one every 30.45 plate appearances. In 1994, it was one every 12.28 plate appearances. What changed?

In 1993, Bagwell hit .330/.409/.509 in the Astrodome and .310/.365/.522 on the road, with a difference of only seven plate appearances between the two splits. Ten of his homers were at home, ten were on the road. Seven of those homers came in May, when he busted out for a .412/.467/.676 slash line, with 13K:14BB. Three of those homers came in one series against the Reds (May 6-8) where they left the Astrodome with a 12-17 record. All three came against the Reds' relievers.

Still, Bagwell played his last game of the season on September 12, 1993 when a Ben Rivera pitch ended up breaking his hand, causing Bagwell to miss the final 20 games of the season. If you figure that Bagwell missed about 86 plate appearances, it translates into approximately three more HRs. It's not a lot, but going from 23 to 39 homers is a little different than 20 to 39.

Bagwell was also either hitting in front of Eric Anthony or Ken Caminiti in 1993. Anthony hit 4th in 86 games in 1993, and posted a .272/.346/.453 line in the cleanup spot. Caminiti - when hitting 4th - hit .237/.309/.289. Anthony was good, Caminiti was not.

In 1994, Bagwell killed lefties (he killed everybody, in general), hitting .457/.544/1.095, with 18 of his 39 homers coming in 125 PAs vs. LHP (as opposed to a .318/.408/.592 line, with 10 homers in 213 PAs. So that's a homer every 6.9 PAs against a lefty in 1994, and one every 21.3 PAs in 1993.

But here's something else: From Opening Day to June 13, Bagwell hit 4th in the lineup, behind Craig Biggio, and he posted a .327/.406/.636 line with 17 homers, one every 12.9 PAs. Impressive, but not legendary. However, starting with the June 14, 1994 game, Terry Collins moved Bagwell back to the #3 spot, When Bagwell hit 3rd, he hit .417/.505/.889, with 19 doubles, 22 homers, 28K:32BB (11 intentional), with a .398 BABIP. That's one HR every 9.9 PAs.

On July 5, Biggio took over the leadoff spot, where Bagwell - now two spots behind Biggio, one behind Steve Finley, and in front of Ken Caminiti - hit .407/.507/.850 with a homer every 10.9 PAs, and an extra-base hit every 5.92 PAs.

In 1994, Craig Biggio also, after 5 1/2 good seasons, hit .300 for the first time - hitting .318/.411/.483, and posting his first .800+ OPS season. As the lead-off hitter, Biggio hit .347/.446/.533 in 1994.

From Opening Day - July 2, 1994, the Astros were 44-36 (.550), and hit 265/.333/.427. After Biggio was moved to the lead-off spot and the order got all shifted around, the Astros as a team hit .305/.378/.485, and went 22-13 (.629) until the strike happened.

So it's my opinion that Bagwell - after almost 2,000 plate appearances - was putting together a great year in 1994 until the lineup was shifted to maximize the lineup, and then it became a monster year. Ken Caminiti is a key player in this, as he hit .283/.352/.495 in 1994, becoming an All-Star for the first time, and providing protection for Bagwell.

Of course you're thinking, "But Caminiti admitted using steroids!" And you're right. However, he said he didn't start using until 1996, when he was in San Diego, to recover from a shoulder injury. If you think Bagwell juiced because he was buddies with Caminiti, Bagwell's MVP season pre-dates Caminiti's introduction to the magical world of injectible super-hero strength by two seasons, and Caminiti wasn't in Houston when he says he started juicing. And if you don't believe Caminiti, then there's no logic or rhyme/reason to persuade you.

Does this absolve Jeff Bagwell? I'm sure it won't mean a single solitary to anyone who doesn't want to look much more closely at the Hall of Fame than the internal "Do I think this guy is a Hall of Famer?" question. But it matters to me.

Luhnow, on today's trade

Jeff Luhnow talked to Mark Berman about the Melancon trade today:

"Obviously we're giving up a lot in Melancon, but I feel like we're getting value back in getting a guy that can play shortstop with a good (bat), a switch-hitter, as well as a pitcher who is capable of being in the rotation next year."

Brian Bixler removed from 40-man roster

Hope you enjoyed that spot on the 40-man, Brian Bixler. Because you have been outrighted to make room for Jed Lowrie and/or Kyle Weiland.

More respect for Astros farm system

J.P Schwartz over at TopProspectAlert.com just put out his farm system rankings with links to his top 15 prospects for each organization, and the Astros are solidly average, coming in at #15!

Reactions to Melancon/Lowrie-Weiland trade

Here are some quick reactions to the trade today (from respected tweeters, woofers):

McTaggart:
the Astros are unlikely to contend next year, so having a lights-out closer isn’t tantamount. Expect the club to get a good look next year at several arms they believe could close in the future. The bottom line is the Astros traded one young player and two more in return. The rebuildling continues.

Keith Law (Insider-only):
Jeff Luhnow's first move as general manager of the Houston Astros isn't a huge one, but it's a great deal for them and shows just how badly the club was mismanaged under Ed Wade over the last few years.

Baseball America:
First on new Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow's to-do list: acquire viable options to play shortstop and catcher, the two most demanding positions on the field. His search continues for a catcher to cover for the injured Jason Castro, but odds are he found his shortstop in a trade with the Red Sox.

FanGraphs:
A healthy Lowrie will make this look like a steal for Houston three years down the road, but we haven’t seen a healthy Lowrie all too often. It’s entirely possible that Weiland will outproduce Melancon next season by himself, but contenders often have to overpay a bit to deal with their pressing needs.

Sky Kalkman:
Well crap, it appears I'm going to have to give @jluhnlow the Friedman treatment and fanboy all his moves no matter what.

Jay Jaffe:
Those of you clucking about Jed Lowrie's durability, are you really going to hold a 4-month bout of mono against him?

Eno Sarris:
Weiland for Melancon would have been fair. Adding Lowrie was a mistake.

BrewersBar:
Melancon was all it took to get Jed Lowrie? Jeez.

Marc Normandin:
This is a trade where both sides did well. I know we all hate trades without clear winners.

Jon Heyman:
melancon nice pickup for #redsox. cant be their closer, tho. they still need someone for the 9th.

Buster Olney:
Like the Astros-Red Sox trade for both sides; Melancon gives BOS possible high-end reliever, and Lowrie could do some damage for HOU.

Keith Olbermann:
Red Sox rip Astros off

Astros trade Mark Melancon, get a shortstop

Have a seat, Angel Sanchez. The Astros have a new shortstop, Jed Lowrie.

Jeff Luhnow has apparently pulled the trigger on a trade with the Red Sox sending 2011 closer Mark Melancon to Boston for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.

Jed Lowrie answers the question of "Who in the hell is going to play shortstop?" A definite upgrade over Angel Sanchez, Lowrie has hit .252/.324/.408 in parts of four seasons with the Red Sox. His breakout year was in an injury-shortened 2010, when he hit .287/.381/.526 in 55 games, with 25K:25BB.

In 88 games for Boston in 2011, he regressed, hitting .252/.303/.382. Fire Brand of the American League has a review of Lowrie's 2011, with this money-quote:
Certainly, if you think this is a good buy-low situation, then now is a good time to get in. Depending on who you talk to, in 2011 Lowrie is everything from a 4-win shortstop to an injury-riddled super-utility. If I were dealing for him, I would bet the latter.

I didn't watch the Red Sox in 2011, because they play in an inferior league, but I feel like Lowrie's promise is an upgrade over Angel Sanchez' existing skill set.

Kyle Weiland is a 25-year old 6'4" 195lb RHP from Albuquerque, and was the Red Sox' 3rd Round pick in 2008. He appared in seven games (five starts) for the Red Sox in 2011, pretty much getting beat up (7.66 ERA/1.66 WHIP), but in 90 minor-league appareances (85 starts), has a 3.51 ERA/1.22 WHIP, with a 2.49 K:BB ratio. In Triple-A in 2011, Weiland threw 128.1IP, allowing 108H/51ER, 126K:55BB.

Sox Prospects says:
90-95 MPH fastball that comes in two-seam and four-seam varieties. Two-seamer has excellent late life and arm-side run. Attacks the zone with solid-average command of his fastball. Doesn't make a lot of mistakes with it and uses both sides of the plate, but can leave it up on occasions. 78-81 MPH curveball has made strides since signing.

WEEI's Alex Speier has this excellent article on Weiland, where Red Sox pitcher Andrew Miller says:
“From what I understand, they always thought, ‘He was a closer in college and maybe he’ll be a reliever again.’ But what I’ve seen from him as a starter, he’s certainly got the ability and stuff to do it. It’s good that he’s getting the opportunity. He’s earned it – especially this year. At a certain point, if he’s able to have success in Triple-A as a starter, he’s able to hold his velocity, maybe you think, ‘Oh, maybe he’s a starter.’

The Astros of course are (reportedly) losing Mark Melancon, the 26-year old closer acquired from the Yankees in the 2010 Berkman trade, and 20 saves. With Brandon Lyon and his millions expected to be back (and healthy-ish), Melancon was expendable, and the 2012 Astros need a shortstop more than they needed Melancon. Jed Lowrie is under team control until 2015 (Arbitration-eligible this off-season), and Weiland is under team control until 2018.

Who does this affect most on the current roster? Brandon Lyon gets his job back (presumably). Jimmy Paredes stays at 3rd, and Jonathan Villar now has the luxury of having time to develop. It also may pave the way for a Wandy/Myers trade, as the Astros have Weiland waiting in the wings for the rotation.

Et Tu, Brutus?

The Hartford Courant - Jeff Bagwell's home newspaper - has a columnist named Jeff Jacobs, who apparently is a voting member of the BBWAA and wonders if the chore is "worth the hassle."

About Our Boy Jeff Bagwell:
Based on numbers alone, Bagwell deserves to be in the Hall of Fame...

...We have seen tens of players like Bagwell blow up from a skinny 20 to a cartoon 35. We have seen tens of players like Bagwell break down physically in their late 30s. I will never vote for Rafael Palmeiro or Mark McGwire, not in 15 lifetimes, but I also don't want to be part of any witch hunt. I only want to play the percentages...

...I have wanted to wait a few years to see if anything surfaced. To watch ESPN, Yahoo!, New York Daily News, the Texas media — someone with the resources and vigor — put Bagwell in its headlights and see if he emerges clean. I have no intentions of making him wait forever. I will wait another year or two.

To recap:

*By the standards of baseball, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.
*But Bagwell played with Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire.
*So this writer will wait until someone with enough time, money, and desire decides to put Bagwell on trial for PED use (something of which Bagwell was never officially linked).
*If no one does so, and soon, he'll just go ahead and vote for him.

This has to be one of the laziest arguments I've ever heard in not voting for a player. "By the numbers," Bagwell is a Hall of Famer. By the character clause, too, actually, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer, because he has never been linked to the use of PEDs. There have been whispers, even flat-out, undeveloped accusations, about Bagwell. But a whisper isn't admissible in a court of law. Which is exactly what the Hall of Fame is not.

Jonah Keri sums it up:
We believe ourselves to be experts, able to pinpoint when a player supposedly started using, exactly how much benefit he gained, and how we should thus evaluate his numbers. With players like Jeff Bagwell, the pseudo-analysis goes a step further, with hordes of writers declining to vote Bagwell into the Hall of Fame because he had big muscles, and some other players of his era were caught using, so … well … you know.

Jeff Jacobs is a prime example of why this Michael Rosenberg column is spot on:
It was probably always wrong for the media to determine the news with its award votes, but now it is ridiculous. We're not just creating news; we're creating controversies. Why should we be the judge and jury for every ballplayer? It is one thing for columnists (like me) to express opinions about what Braun did, did not do, or should have done. It's quite another for us to officially validate or void a player's achievements.

The purpose of becoming a sportswriter or columnist is to have an opinion. What Jacobs has done is to shy away from that role, let others do the work, and then pass judgment on other journalists' - the ones with "resources and vigor" - work.

The Indians are not in on Willingham, still want an OF/1B

Hey, so Ken Rosenthal says that the Indians, who have been linked to any and all short-term deals involving right-handed outfielders who can play first base, are not in on Josh Willingham.

Carlos Lee is as inevitable as a tazing at your work Christmas party.

J.A. Happ tendered contract

J.A. Happ was offered arbitration, and will return in 2012.

This makes sense, given how cheap he is. Before you get all crazy, let's look at Happ's June/July:

1-9 record. 51.2IP, 71H/44ER, 46K:29BB, 8 homers allowed, .332/.408/.565, .389 BABIP, 7.66 ERA/1.94 WHIP.

Then Aug/Sept:

3-4 record. 41IP, 29H/16ER, 36K:23BB, 4 homers allowed, .201/.310/.333, .238 BABIP, 3.51 ERA/1.27 WHIP.

They call him Mr. Glass

Jason Castro is out for three months following surgery to remove the sesamoid bone in his left food.



Jon Heyman (I know) already says that the Astros and Pudge - yes, that Pudge, could be a fit. Although I really hope not.

Regardless, the timetable for Castro's return should put him back right around the middle of Spring Training. Get ready for Quintero Time (who signed a 1-year deal worth $1m + bonuses).

FanGraphs: Wandy-to-Boston makes sense

In a post that looked remarkably similar to one I was working on to be published tonight, I will humbly withdraw my post and just link to this FanGraphs post saying that Boston makes a whole lot of sense for both sides.

Money quote:
The Astros are unlikely to be ready for serious competition by the time Rodriguez’s contract is up, and if they are able to net a couple of prospects in need of some more seasoning without eating too much of his contract, that’s a big win for them.

Red Sox interested in Wandy

With a captip to Native Astro, the Boston Herald's Michael Silverman says that Wandy Rodriguez is among the available pitchers interesting the Red Sox, along with the White Sox' Gavin Floyd and John Danks, and the A's Gio Gonzalez.

Saturday update

Here is your early afternoon Saturday update:

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien says that he thinks Carlos Lee makes sense for the Braves, if the Astros are willing to eat more of his salary.

Peter Gammons tweets that CEO George Postolos has re-energized the entire Astros organization, and he was blown away by Luhnow powerpoint. It's a long,long climb, but it's begun

Jon Heyman says the Astros will have interest in Ryan Theriot, if he's non-tendered by the Cardinals.

FanGraphs on Rhiner Cruz

FanGraphs' Mike Newman (aka Scouting the SAL has a piece up on Astros' #1 Rule 5 selection Rhiner Cruz:

No offense to Rhiner Cruz specifically, but I spent the entire 2009 season watching him close for Savannah, the New York Mets full season A affiliate and never felt the need to actually scout him. At the time, Cruz was 22 and lived off a bit of a funky delivery and a fastball which topped out at 92. With a fringy little slurve, it was enough to keep lower level hitters off balanced, but not an arsenal that would translate well at the big league level...

Luhnow gets a four-year deal

Mark Berman's "Major League sources" say that new GM Jeff Luhnow received a four-year deal from Jim Crane/George Postolos.

Astros a Winter Meetings "loser"

So saith Tom Verducci:

The Angels and Rangers are so far out in front of the Athletics, Mariners and Astros (their AL West rivals beginning in 2013) that those clubs can't delude themselves into pretending to be contenders. The Athletics need the San Jose money more than ever, the Mariners may have to re-assess keeping Felix Hernandez out of any trade talks and the Astros will long for the good old days of the friendly NL Central.

This seems silly.

Andy Van Hekken will play in Korea

Andy Van Hekken has declined contracts from the Astros and A's to play for the Nexen Heroes in Korea.

Van Hekken:
"I’m working to get back to the major leagues, and I think I’m as close as I’ve ever been. My agent and my wife and I talked about my desire to come back to the majors, that it’s still a goal. There will still be a need a year from now for a left-handed pitcher."

Van Hekken threw 129.2IP for OKC in 2011, allowing 152H/49ER, 111K:47BB, for a 3.40 ERA/1.54 WHIP. He has a career 122-86 record in 14 minor league seasons, with a 3.94 ERA/1.35 WHIP, and a 2.51 K:BB ratio.

I'm honestly sorry to see him go.

Still, it frees up a rotation spot at OKC, so we'll see where the rosters shake out, but it could bode well for Cosart, Oberholtzer, Clemens, etc.

Best-Case Scenario for Astros fans, 2019

Might Ryan Theriot interest Houston?

Jon Heyman thinks so, as he may be non-tendered by the Cardinals.

Indians want Astros to take more than half of Carlos Lee's salary

The Indians were approached by the Astros about Carlos Lee, but the issue was money:

The issue in those talks is that the Tribe would need the Astros to assume more than half of Lee's salary. To take on a contract in the range of $7-9 million for 2012, the Indians would have to move salary in another trade.

For God's sake, do it.

Indians GM Chris Antonetti:
"We were able to further some of the discussions and dialogue that we had on both trades and free agents. Hopefully that's led us closer to a deal that will allow us to improve the team."

Duarte to Red Sox

Just to get it on the official record, that one guy the Astros had for about 20 minutes, Marco Duarte, was traded to the Red Sox for infielder Marwin Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is a 22-year old 6'1" 186lb switch-hitting infielder who came up in the Cubs' system. In six seasons, he has 1973 PAs, with a .258/.305/.352 line, 272K:116BB.

In 2011, he split time between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, hitting a combined .288/.343/.400, with 48K:33BB (465 PAs).

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington:
"Yeah, we took him on behalf of the Astros. There was a guy in the minor league phase we wanted to take higher and so it was simply we took a guy for them in the major league phase and they took a guy for us in the minor league phase.”

A collection of reactions to Jeff Luhnow's hiring

Here is your recap of reactions to the Astros' hiring of Jeff Luhnow (which will be updated):

Riverfront Times:
If there's anyone in baseball who can turn around the moribund Astros in relatively short order, I trust Luhnow as much as just about anyone to find a way. Make no mistake, this is very bad news for the Cardinals. Under Luhnow's stewardship, the Cards have seen their minor league system go from among the worst in all of baseball to a top seven, maybe even top five system despite never having the chance to draft within the top ten.

Jeff Gordon:
Luhnow will make things better . . . because they can’t possibly get worse in Houston. Whether he can build a juggernaut remains to be seen. Either way, the rebuilding process won’t be dull.

Jon Heyman:
hearing good things about new astros gm jeff luhnow. "eminently qualified," 1 person said. was w/ champion cardinals.

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak:
"I'm glad they're moving to the AL West."

Thoughts on the Astros, and the Angels

If you're like me, you simply could not believe what had taken place. First, the Astros get moved (against their will) to the AL West. One of the reasons I didn't start looking for flamethrowers on eBay was because now, at least, Albert Pujols wouldn't be able to slay the Astros every chance he got.

Then I saw the tweets roll in that the Angels had spent the GDP of 46 countries to sign Albert Pujols. And then C.J. Wilson. And I got mad. I wrote a one-word email to some friends, and I bet you can guess what that one word was.

But then I started to think objectively. A future division rival has just committed $327 million to two players who will not be worth it towards the end of their contracts. Before the realignment mess, I was hoping that the Cardinals would over-commit to Pujols, because it would hamstring their payroll. So the Angels did it, instead.

Will Pujols out-produce his contract? Maybe. Seven of the ten players on Baseball-Reference to Pujols are Hall of Famers. And the other three are Ken Griffey, Juan Gonzalez, and Manny Ramirez; and Griffey is definitely a HOFer. Seriously, just take a second and look at Pujols' B-R page. It's insane.

C.J. Wilson is a different story. C.J. Wilson's similar players through age 30 are Joe Page, Paul Lindblad, Joe Price, Ray Narleski, Grant Jackson, Bob Chipman, Dave Hamilton, Fred Scherman, Don Mossi, and Ricky Horton. Exactly.

I don't know about the Angels' financial flexibility, but with paying Vernon Wells for three more years, and Jared Weaver through 2016, it's unlikely they'll be adding too terribly much in the future (not that they necessarily need to.) But they've just committed to Albert Pujols until 2021, and C.J. Wilson through 2017.

That said, where we should be concerned is through an existing AL West war. If the Rangers answer the Angels' moves by signing Prince Fielder, or...I don't know who's left, but if the Rangers answer with their own high-splash signing, it's not good for the rebuilding Astros. Should this happen, and the Angels/Rangers are looking like the US and Soviet Union in the late 1950s and the Astros are, you know, Bermuda, where the fallout will be terrible if shots are fired, it's a bad position to be in.

Luckily for us, after six hours, Jeff Luhnow looks like a freaking genius.

Mills to return in 2012

So it's not all bloodshed in Houston, as KPRC Sports Director Randy McIlvoy, tweeting from Luhnow's press conference, says that Luhnow has talked to Mills about 2012 - indicating that Mills will be back.

Ultimately, this makes the most sense...for one more year. We're at the stage in the off-season where you're about eight weeks late on making managerial moves. So Luhnow will roll the dice on Mills. And I'm okay with that.

Rule 5: Astros select Marco Duarte

In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Astros took Marco Duarte from the Rockies.

Duarte is a 25-year old, 6'2" 185lb RHP, spending all five of his professional seasons with the Rockies' organization. In 2011, he played in the Triple-A Mexican League with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico, who finished 63-40, tops in the North Division, and led the team with 12 wins.

He made 23 appearances - 19 starts, going 12-4 with a 4.94 ERA/1.76 WHIP. In 109.1IP, Duarte allowed 139H/60ER, 93K:53BB, with 13 wild pitches. In five seasons, Duarte is 26-17, with a 5.07 ERA/1.56 WHIP, and a 2.63 K:BB ratio.

Rule 5: Astros select Rhiner Cruz

The Astros selected Mets RHP Rhiner Cruz with the first pick of the Rule 5 draft.

Cruz is a 25-year old, 6'2" 205lb righty from Santo Domingo. In 2011 he pitched in both High-A and Double-A Binghamton. At Binghamton, Cruz threw 58.2IP (36 appearances), allowing 43H/27ER, 51K:39BB, for a 1.40 WHIP. In seven minor-league seasons, Cruz has compiled a 3.44 ERA in 340IP, with a 1.44 WHIP. He doesn't have much in the way of command, walking 5.5 batters per 9 innings, with 40 wild pitches and 43 HBPs in those 340IP.

Mets GM Sandy Alderson said of losing Cruz:
There was a certain amount of buzz about Cruz and we did expect that he probably would be taken. He's got a very good arm, hasn't had great command during his minor league career...

Friction in St. Louis with Luhnow

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon has a good reaction to the hiring of Jeff Luhnow:

Jeff Luhnow became a polarizing figure in the Cardinals front office. Many old-school baseball guys bristled at his new-age thinking.

His willingness to tap unconventional resources – stat guys, bloggers, baseball outsiders with oddball theories -- drove some folks nuts.

Luhnow became one of Bill DeWitt Jr.’s favorite employees. His ascension to player development czar and the resulting turmoil drove general manager Walt Jocketty from the organization.

But Luhnow got results, both through the amateur draft and international signings. While the Cardinals quickly assembled a small army of prospects that helped them win the 2011 World Championship...

...Now Luhnow he moves on to the mammoth challenge of rebuilding an entire organization. He is brimming with confidence and ambition, so the fun is about to start in Houston.

That's just a snipped of the article. Click the link for the whole thing - well worth a read.

A Cards fan's take on the Luhnow hire

Cardinal's fan and friend of mine Chris Hettenkofer (@c_hett) was gracious enough to give us his take on the Jeff Luhnow hire.

"Congratulations to the Astros on getting the right guy at the right time. Luhnow resurrected a struggling Cardinals farm system when he arrived in 2003. The Cardinals had the last ranked farm system at the end of the 2004 season and today have a mid-range ranking, despite big league promotions of impact players to the World Championship team and using some as trade material for Holliday. Everything changed for the organization when he took over both scouting and development, smoothing these two usually at odds groups was a brilliant move. I’m sure whoever he puts in place in Houston will follow a similar philosophy.

He’s a very rational guy who seems able to balance both the sabermetric side of things with the “art” of scouting; at the very least he can get people from both sides of the spectrum to co-exist. He seems to understand the value of his prospects, which should help at the one facet that is really a question mark, how will he do when it comes time to sell off some pieces to make a move. The Astros are still a few years away from this really being a big problem, and in that time they will only get better and more stocked at the early levels.

As a Cardinals fan I’m very sad to see Jeff go because I think he has had as much, if not more, to do with the World Series we just won than any other member of the Cards front office. You’re in good hands Astros fans and who knows, you may even end up with Colby Rasmus before it’s all over."

The national response to this hire has been mostly positive, an unusual phenomenon for recent Astros moves. Obviously time will tell, but so far it seems that Crane and Postolos have the organization turning back towards a place of respectability.

It's Rule 5 day!

In addition to getting a new general manager, the Astros can now set their sights on the Rule 5 draft, in which Baseball America says Phillies' (of course) prospect Jiwan James is said to be in the Astros' crosshairs:

He's athletic, he's a major league-caliber defender right now, and his speed and defense could buy time for his bat to develop. One scout compared him to Dewayne Wise, whose long big league career started when he was Rule 5'd back in 1999.

BA also says that talk pretty much stopped when Luhnow was hired, and nobody has any idea what the Astros will do with their two open roster spots.

However, Subber10 - the Juvenile Court Clerk's counterpart at TCB says:
the dude is SOOO raw, I don't see him lasting the full season on a 25 man roster.

Astros hire Jeff Luhnow

The Astros have their man: St. Louis Cardinals Vice President of Player Procurement Jeff Luhnow has been named General Manager, and the franchise will be shaped in his own image.

George Postolos:
"Jeff has a demonstrated the ability to inspire and motivate staff in the front office and out in the field. He was born and raised in Mexico and his bicultural background will be an asset in recruiting players from Latin America and developing the Hispanic market for Los Astros."

Luhnow, 45, graduated from the Wharton School of Business at Penn, and had been with the Cardinals since 2003, overseeing their drafts since 2005.

Derrick Goold writes:
A pet project of his has been increasing the Cardinals' ability to evaluate and sign players in the Caribbean, and two of the Cardinals' top prospects — pitcher Carlos Martinez and outfielder Oscar Taveras — have been products from that system.

Here's a 2008 interview between Luhnow and Baseball Prospectus. And here's another interview from 2004.

The Cardinals' minor league affiliates have posted a 2953-2912 (.503) record in Luhnow's tenure as Draft Overseer, including a 920-803 (.534) record in the past two seasons. Just for comparison, the Astros' affiliates have a 2583-3113 (.453) record in the same span, and a 697-956 (.422) record over 2010-11.

Luhnow - who has a difficult name to make a nickname of - is the 4th general manager of the Astros since 2004.

Buehrle vs. Wandy

So Mark Buehrle just signed a 4-year, $58m deal with the Marlins. What does that mean for Wandy's contract, which is basically 3-year, $36m?

TALE OF THE TAPE!

Buehrle: 32-year old lefty
Wandy: 32-year old lefty.

Name	IP	ERA/WHIP	K:BB
Buehrle	2476.2	3.83/1.28	2.48
Wandy	1176.0	4.07/1.35	2.38

Let's keep going (career)...

Name	H/9	HR/9	WAR
Buehrle	9.5	1.0	46.6
Wandy	8.9	1.0	10.2

How about the last three seasons?

Name	IP	ERA/WHIP	K:BB
Buehrle	629	3.91/1.32	2.25
Wandy	591.2	3.36/1.28	2.69

More 2009-11:

Name	H/9	HR/9	WAR
Buehrle	9.9	0.9	12.1
Wandy	8.5	0.9	10.1

The point is, for the past three years, Wandy and Buehrle have been two very similar pitchers. Buehrle is getting a deal that pays $14.5m for the next four years, while the team that trades for Wandy is getting a similar pitcher for $12m/year for the next three years.

Ultimately, Buehrle's deal is going to skyrocket Wilson's asking price, which means that the team that wants Wandy is going to deal with a franchise motivated to move him, with a friendlier contract than expected 20 minutes ago.

Wait, was I right?

Yesterday, Astros County asked, "There has to be a match with the Indians and Astros for Carlos Lee, right?"

And Jon Paul Morosi says yes. Sort of. Of Lee, whom Morosi says the Astros will pay half his contract:

The Indians are a fit, but wary of cost.

Well hell! If the Astros are going to pay $9.25m for Lee to not play for them, they might as well pay $10-11m.

Also, Morosi says Wandy won't move until Wilson, Buehrle, and perhaps Gio Gonzalez find a home.

A whole $100!

Hunter Pence and Chick-Fil-A have "teamed-up" to donate $100 (!!!!!) for the Holiday Food Drive at Cypress Assistance Ministries. If you bid on lunch at Chick-Fil-A with Hunter Pence (starting at $250), you get one combo meal and a dessert (no asking for more). But at least you can bring Phillies stuff for Pence to sign...

SOMEONE IS INTERESTED IN BRETT MYERS

It's not as exciting as someone being interested in Carlos Lee, but the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo just tweeted:

Houston has fielded interest by a few teams on Brett Myers but need to pick up some money.

Astros eyeing Dan Jennings

The Astros are looking at Marlins exec Dan Jennings, but Heyman says Florida might not let him go.

Rosenthal and Morosi said last week that the Orioles asked the Marlins for permission to hire him, and Jeffrey Loria - sweetheart that he is - said no.

GM Search Update: What We Know

Here is a recap of what we know so far regarding the GM Search, as of 8:22am Central Time, on December 7.

Interviewed
Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo
Dodgers Assistant GM Logan White
St. Louis' VP of Player Procurement Jeff Luhnow
Colorado Assistant GM Bill Geivett

"Candidates"
Cincinnati's Scott Nethery

Thanks, But No Thanks
Andrew Friedman
Texas' Thad Levine
Chicago's Rick Hahn & MLB's Kim Ng

Morning Update

*Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo interviewed for the GM position.

*So did Dodgers Assistant GM Logan White. White interviewed in 2007, when the Astros decided to hire Ed Wade.

*The Tigers were interested in trading for Wandy Rodriguez, but aren't happy with the price tag.

They were approached at some point with the idea of trading for Houston's Wandy Rodriguez, according to sources, but while there was some limited interest, the idea died quickly.

*The Marlins, however/of course, are interested in trading for Wandy. They seem to be more interested in Gio Gonzalez, but it's likely that Wandy wouldn't cost as much. But since the Marlins are printing money underneath their new stadium, it may not matter.

There has to be a match here, right?

Total speculation here, but Hardball Talk has a report that the Indians are looking for:

With the price tags for Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham proving high, the Indians are looking to trade for a right-handed hitter to help at first base and/or in the outfield.

Alright. Michael Cuddyer was apparently offered a three-year $25m deal. Willingham is also looking for a three-year deal.

Hey. Wait. Perhaps they'd be interested in Carlos Lee, who "plays" first base and/or outfield. And can be had for half of his 2012 salary - or about $9.5m - but at one year.

The Indians are said to be interested in dealing from their bullpen, which I'm not sure matches up with the Astros' needs, but it's a starting point...

Sporting News: Best-case scenario for Astros fans is to simply remember them

Jeebus, it's like the media is already building a Tomb of the Unknown Franchise for 2012. The Sporting News had this to say about the Astros:

The rebuilding could continue this offseason if the Astros can find a new GM to coax someone into taking first baseman Carlos Lee and/or lefthander Wandy Rodriguez off the books.

About the best Astros fans can hope for is that the team lands some prospects who can spark their interest enough to not completely forget about this team.

Notes from Brad Mills' press conference

Alyson Footer is giving live updates on Twitter of Brad Mills' press conference. Among the things she shares with us:

-2012 Opening Day 1B is Carlos Lee, unless Brett Wallace beats him out of a job in Spring Training.
-Jimmy Paredes' transition from 3B to SS is "unlikely."

Mills says, via Stephen Goff that Angel Sanchez, Brian Bixler, and Anderson Hernandez are your internal candidates for SS1.

Zach Levine says that the bullpen coach position won't be in place until after the GM is hired.

I have no idea how to feel about Brad Mills

Brad Mills is somewhat in limbo, as everyone who hired him is now gone. This Steve Campbell article provides some backstory to Brad Mills.

On Mills getting a computer:
He learned how to file scouting reports on line, how to do spreadsheets. Along the way, Mills became increasingly comfortable with statistics and analysis. He began compiling his own database, which he has married with an affinity for video study. Before making out a lineup, Mills would make it his business to know if Clint Barmes was 13-for-27 against that day’s starting pitcher (Paul Maholm) or 1-for-18 (Matt Cain). He would look for the matchups that set up best for his relievers, though such nuances don’t tend to pay as many dividends for teams that are going 56-106 and shedding payroll along the way.

On one hand, awesome. Mills played matchups. On the other hand, I'm worried that the County Clerk would do about the same amount of statistical preparation for a game preview than Mills did in filling out a lineup.

Basically, my feelings are exactly 50/50 on Brad Mills. He seems like a nice guy. Campbell did bring up the "Why did Jason Michaels get so many ABs" question (click the link), and for that reason alone I feel as though he is unfit to use Baseball-Reference.

How does this make you feel?

Jeff Keppinger likely to be non-tendered

Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants will likely let Jeff Keppinger walk, without offering him arbitration.

Keppinger played 10 games in 2010 at SS for the Astros. But before you start getting ideas, heed Baggarly's warning (not that you didn't see this with your own eyes):

He isn’t a utility infielder and his value is rather narrow. There’s a reason he hasn’t played much if any shortstop since 2008 with the Reds. He looked pretty wooden at second base, too.

Astros trying to get Red Sox to take Wandy, Myers

Gordon Edes says that the Astros are trying to get the Red Sox all excited about Wandy and Brett Myers:

The Astros have tried to interest the Red Sox in pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, but have been told the price for both s too high. Houston would probably take some money back on Myers, who is due to make $11 million in 2012.

I'm guessing that Brett Myers wouldn't be overly thrilled about playing at Fenway since, you know, he reportedly said, "I don't ever want to pitch in Boston again."

Morning Update

Here's what you missed while I was watching Vampire Diaries on Netflix yesterday evening and overnight:

Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo interviewed for the GM position last night.

The Astros will pay half of Carlos Lee and Brett Myers' salary in a deal, but want a prospective team to take all of Wandy's salary.

Andrew Friedman's rejection of the Astros "is in no way a reflection on the Houston organization," say the Rays.

Alyson Footer explains, in detail, what the Astros are looking for in a GM.

Joel Sherman can confirm Friedman out

The New York Post's Joel Sherman is confirming that Friedman has turned down the Astros.

So I guess that means Johnny Damon is, in fact, full of crap.

I have to admit, I felt a little flutter in my heart when Friedman hadn't said yea or nay about coming to the Astros. Now it's all black, all fear, all anguish.

David Gottfried is your guy...for now

While the Astros figure out what Plan Q is for the GM, Jayson Stark reports that interim GM David Gottfried can pull the trigger on any deal that may go down this week.

Carlos Lee update

Jayson Stark checks in with an update on Carlos Lee, who says that there are mostly East Coast teams on Lee's no-trade list. However, and it's a big "however," Carlos is apparently willing to go to the Orioles who, surprise!, need a DH.

Matchmaker, matchmaker, make me a match!

Andrew Friedman already ruled out Houston?

The LA Times' Bill Shaikin tweeted at 12:33pm:

Hearing #Rays GM already has decided against taking Astros job.

This is not good news for the Whooping Cranes, who now may find themselves without Friedman, and turned down by Thad Levine, Kim Ng, and Rick Hahn. Maybe it was inevitable, and we shouldn't be surprised, but it's still - for now - disappointing.

Andrew Friedman non-update

Jon Heyman just tweeted an Andrew Friedman non-update:

Most see only a slim chance friedman takes astros gm job. Said to love rays people and own points in team.

Who are you going to believe? A beer-ed up Johnny Damon, or a (presumably-)sober Jon Heyman?

Justice to MLB.com

We have our first big move of the Winter Meetings! Mark Berman says that Richard Justice has left the Chronicle after 11 years to be a columnist at MLB.com.

Johnny Damon is either completely full of crap, or Andrew Friedman is in play

And honestly, it could go either way. Maybe you saw this, but there was a story in the Boston Globe yesterday with a weird note from Johnny Damon on his future:

“I haven’t even talked to them just because our GM [Andrew Friedman] is a free agent. He’s not going to sign me and then leave. If he goes to Houston, his hometown, he’s going to try and bring me along with him. That’s where my waiting game is.

Again, your options are:

1. Johnny Damon is full of crap.
2. Johnny Damon is telling the truth (and, with a case of El Presidente "securely strapped to a cart," he may very well be) and Andrew Friedman is seriously considering to the point of telling Johnny Damon that he may have a job in Houston.

What the Astros expect from their three remaining trade pieces

Jon Heyman tweeted about what the Astros are planning/expecting from the Winter Meetings, should any deals be made:

-They're willing to eat most of Carlos Lee's contract.
-They expect to get a good return from Wandy and Myers.

If you're wondering how much money the Astros should be eating to get rid of Carlos Lee, you're thinking about it wrong. It's not your money, and saving $3m (this means the Astros would still pay Carlos Lee $16m to not play for them) is better than wasting $19m. Still, how much would you expect the Astros to take on, should they be able to find a taker for Lee?

Short list of GM possibilities

It's time to start building sourced lists of potential GMs. Any speculation is by each individual writer. Here we go:

12/5
Friedman out

12/5
Scott Nethery (CIN)

12/3
Jeff Luhnow (STL) (Interviewed)

11/30:
Levine out
Bill Geivett (COL) (Interviewed)

(Via Evan Grant):
Thad Levine (Texas)
A.J. Preller (Texas)
Both have been integral in the Rangers' rise to two-time defending AL champs. Both endorsed the club tear-down from the top that took place with the trades of Mark Teixeira, Kenny Lofton and Eric Gagne in 2007.

(Via Rosenthal and Morosi):
Gerry Hunsicker (TB) - The club reached the postseason in five of his nine seasons, and sources say he would embrace a return to Houston.
Andrew Friedman (TB) - Friedman's enthusiasm for the Astros' job is less certain.
Thad Levine (TEX)
A.J. Preller (TEX)
Dan Jennings (Florida/Miami) - Was denied permission to interview for the Orioles’ GM vacancy by Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.

(Via McTaggart):
All of the above, and then...
Peter Woodfork (MLB) - He's a Theo Epstein disciple, having worked under him with the Boston Red Sox.
J.J. Piccolo (KC) - As the assistant GM of the Royals who oversees both the player development and scouting departments, Picollo has plenty of experience listening to a variety of opinions.
Jeff Kingston (SEA) - Kingston worked with Kevin Towers in San Diego before being hired away by the Mariners.
Billy Eppler (NYY) - Eppler interviewed recently for the Angels' vacant opening and is considered a solid candidate to be a GM in the future.
Logan White (LAD) - White's in charge of amateur and international scouting for GM Ned Colletti. In 2007, he interviewed with the Astros before Wade was hired.
De Jon Watson (LAD) - The head of player development with the Dodgers, Watson interviewed for the Orioles' vacant GM position in October before withdrawing.
Rick Hahn (CWS) - Hahn is a former sports agent who used to work for Jeff Moorad.
Al Avila (DET) - The assistant GM of the Tigers, Avila is more of a veteran scout, in the mold of Colletti, but he has a very good track record.
Allard Baird (BOS) - If the Astros find themselves looking for a veteran GM not named Hunsicker, Baird could be their guy.

Obviously the quotes for each candidate are not the entire quotes, and you'll just need to click the source link for the full version.

One more interview down

The Astros also interviewed St. Louis' VP of Player Procurement Jeff Luhnow for the GM role yesterday. Luhnow has overseen the Cardinals' farm system.

Ohfergoodnesssakes

Earlier today, you may have asked yourself, "Why in the hell would the Astros sign Diory Hernandez?"

Zach Levine has your answer:

Gottfried also said that third baseman Jimmy Paredes suffered what the club believes is a minor shoulder injury with his winter ball club Gigantes del Cibao. He last played in Wednesday’s game and could miss a few days.

Astros GM search so far reminds me a lot of the lead-up to prom

Jon Heyman just tweeted that, in addition to Thad Levine turning down the opportunity to interview for the Astros' GM job, the White Sox' Rick Hahn and MLB's Kim Ng also turned the Astros down.

Provided that the Astros don't hire Andrew Friedman, whomever is the next GM can take comfort that, at best, they were Plan D.

Astros sign 3B Diory Hernandez

Baseball America says that the Astros, in addition to re-signing Carlos Corporan, have signed 3B Diory Hernandez.

Hernandez will be 28 in April and comes from the Braves' organization, where he was signed as an amateur free agent in 2002. He appeared in 22 games for the Braves in 2011, hitting .212/.212/.333, while playing 3B, SS, and 1B.

In nine minor-league seasons, he has a .272/.323/.378 line, with 463K:169BB. In four Triple-A seasons, he hit .275/.315/.375. The peak of those four seasons was 2009, when he hit .319/.399/.422 in 54 games. In 79 Triple-A games in 2011, he hit .201/.229/.308.

This is probably the best news possible for Jimmy Paredes, who looks likely to open the season with the Big Club. If the Astros play him at shortstop, he'll compete with Brian Bixler and Angel Sanchez.

Bill Geivett interviewing today

Rockies Assistant GM Bill Geivett flew into Houston this morning to interview for the GM position.

Meanwhile, Tim Purpura ended up getting the Rangers' farm director spot.

And in other GM news, Jon Heyman sez that the Astros will do whatever it takes to sign him but his friends say they think it's a long shot.

Today, in obvious news

What with the Winter Meetings kicking off, everyone in baseball has descended on Dallas to wheel and deal. And Jon Heyman is in town to "report" on the "rumors." Like this one, which is obvious to everyone:

#astros shopping wandy, myers & carlos lee

Dallas is a Caps-Free zone, everybody.

J.J. Picollo drawing interest

Courtesy of MLBTR, the Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton is tweeting that Royals Assistant GM J.J. Picollo is drawing interest from the Astros.

Friedman declines to address status

Read into this whatever you like, but the St. Petersburg Times' Marc Topkin tweeted that:

Friedman declines to address Astros GM situation at pre-winter meetings media session.

Astros receive permission to hang out with Bill Geivett

Can we get a pronunciation here? The Astros have received permission to interview Rockies exec Bill Geivett, who is senior vice president of scouting and player devlopement/assistant general manager.

The Astros are kind of messing up this Tal Smith thing...

The Astros are getting hammered on how they're handling the Tal Smith dismissal. And it's sort of Drayton's fault.

How is it possible that Smith will receive only two weeks’ severance pay from the club, according to major-league sources? Because the Astros’ previous owner, Drayton McLane, did not arrange a more enticing golden parachute for Smith with the new owner, Jim Crane. Smith’s contract as president of baseball operations expired on Oct. 31, sources said, but he continued working for the club as an at-will employee...

...Smith...received the equivalent of one month’s salary when McLane awarded bonuses to Astros’ employees upon the closing of the sale, sources said. That bonus, plus the two weeks’ severance, is all he will receive after serving the Astros in all five decades of their existence, including the past 18 years under McLane.

I'm not saying we should start a Kickstarter project to get Tal some money to get his fishing license, but if Crane felt it necessary to give him a bigger severance, I'd be okay with it.

GM Update!

Big news from the GM search last night, after I went to bed (of course). So let's catch you up, if you haven't already done so:

Thad Levine, Assistant GM for the Rangers, has declined the Astros' offer to interview for the GM position.

Drew Silva says:
With the Winter Meetings set to begin early next week, it might be time to begin bottom-feeding.

Yes, because that's exactly what the Astros need more of.

Also, Ken Rosenthal says that Rockies Assistant GM, Bill Geivett, is a serious candidate for the vacant GM position. Rosenthal:
Geivett, 48, has a wide range of experience. His previous jobs included assistant GM for the Dodgers, farm director for the Rockies and Expos, special assistant to the GM with the Rays and area scout and instructor with the Yankees.

We warned you about this...

So the Astros might get a Rangers exec, and the Rangers might get Purpura

The Astros have asked the Rangers for permission to interview Assistant GM Thad Levine (and, as Sullivan reports, possibly A.J. Preller) for the vacant GM position in Houston.

And in a related note, the Rangers have interviewed Tim Purpura for their own vacant farm team director position.

In the best example of "Telling Half the Story" we've seen in a long time, we turn to T.R. Sullivan:
Purpura was the Astros' assistant general manager from 1997-2004 under Gerry Hunsicker and also served for seven seasons in the dual role of farm director. The Astros were named the Major League Organization of the Year in 2001 by four different entities. From 1997-2005, the Astros went to the playoffs in six of nine years, including 2005 in Purpura's first year as general manager.

Quirk: Cubs are sort of like the Astros!

Jamie Quirk is off to Chicago, where he will be new manager Dale Sveum's bench coach.

Quirk:
"It was too good to turn down. I wanted to get back to the bench and get more involved. They've got new ownership and a new general manager and they're kind of like the Astros are, lot of changes going on and it's kind of exciting to see what's going to happen."

This larger story has another quote from Quirk, mainly about how he wanted to have responsibilities between the hours of 7pm and 10pm:
"Pretty much, once the game started I was out of it."

What does this mean for the Astros? Well, they need a bench coach, and to hear Jamie Quirk tell it, it's more of a planning job than anything else. Yet, as in most things, the longer the GM search takes, the longer it takes Mills' situation to get resolved, the longer it takes to find a new bullpen coach.

More prospect analysis!

Fangraphs fantasy arm, Rotographs, recently took a look at Houston's farm system and young major leaguers. While the post is obviously coming from a fantasy baseball perspective, there is still some good information provided.

They're predicting Clemens, Oberholtzer, Cosart, and possibly Keuchel to debut in mid to late 2012, which I would generally agree with, depending on injuries and if and when Wandy and/or Myers are moved.

Given the rebuild effort and the number of players that debuted last season, there are several guys to cover, and this piece hits most of them.

I would say a lot of Houston's rebuild effort is riding on the performance of several minor leaguers in 2012. A few important break-outs or busts this year will have a huge impact on how quickly the Astros return to respectability.

The Case For/Against Ed Wade

It's now been 24-36 hours since we found out about the dismissal of Ed Wade. How about a point/counterpoint?

Juvenile Court Clerk

Once Jim Crane was officially approved as the new Astros owner, he hinted very strongly that changes would be made, and quickly at that. Most correctly guessed that the dismissal of Ed Wade would be one of those changes. After all, Houston had just wrapped up the worst season in franchise history while essentially fielding a team of nothing but rookies and role players. On top of that the farm system, while improving, was still considered one of the poorer in baseball. But I argue that the cause of our dereliction wasn't Wade, but McLane and his bipolar approach towards team building.

When Wade joined the organization in 2007 the writing was already on the wall concerning the decline of the franchise, but McLane had not yet found his reading glasses. Wade was tasked with rebuilding the farm system while keeping the parent club competitive. Oh, and payroll, despite being burdened with the Carlos Lee contract, was being cut at the same time. And Eddie tried. His first big move was trading our increasingly expensive demoralized closer Brad Lidge for a promising young outfielder named Michael Bourn in the first of his multiple deals with the Phillies. Then it is widely assumed that McLane directs Wade to trade half of our AAA team for Miguel Tejeda, who promptly ages faster than Robin Williams in Jack.

The next of Wade's major deals came when Houston surprisingly found themselves in a pennant race in the second half of the 2008 season. In moves that were almost universally laughed at at the time, Wade turned two non-prospects into Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins, a solid SP and setup man for the stretch run. After just missing the post season, McLane decides it's time to tighten the purse strings a little more. Unable to resign Wolf, Wade is forced to find 40% of the starting rotation for less than $3M. Then, faced with the ever injured Kaz Matsui's latest injury, Wade turns AAAA IF Drew Sutton into fan favorite Jeff Keppinger.

And this pattern continued for the next couple years. Though he struggled filling holes through free agency on a bargain basement budget, he continued to find value through waiver claims and under the radar trades. Matt Lindstrom, Jose Valverde, Wesley Wright, Alberto Arias, Wilton Lopez, Jason Bourgeois, Nelson Figueroa, Matt Downs, Enerio Del Rosario, and Lucas Harrell were picked off other teams scrap piles and have provided decent, not great, but decent value to the Astros. He turned Kevin Cash, a non-factor, into Angel Sanchez, a serviceable infielder. Felipe Paulino became Clint Barmes, and now a supplemental draft pick. Pedro Feliz became David Carpenter.

Finally given the green light to go all in on a rebuild, Wade traded Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn over the past two season. While early indications are mixed on these four deals Houston has received some interesting pieces in return. Names like Jonathan Singleton, Jimmy Paredes, Jonathan Villar, Mark Melancon, Domingo Santana, Brett Oberholtzer, Jarred Cosart, and Paul Clemens should give Astros fans something to look forward to in a couple seasons when they join recent draft picks like George Springer and Mike Foltynewicz and young major leaguers J.D. Martinez and Jose Altuve.

In all, Wade was given a nigh-impossible task that became increasingly difficult as his time with Houston went on. Ownership interference and uncertainty will make even the best GM look silly at times, but I think when the Astros are atop the AL West, Ed Wade's fingerprints will be evident on the team.

The Constable

Where do you even start with building a case against Ed Wade? I completely respect the Juvenile Court Clerk's opinion that Drayton bears a large burden of the responsibility, but the firing of Ed Wade simply had to happen, even if it means that Jim Crane will be paying him for the next two seasons. Attendance is dwindling, fans are irate about the move to the American League, and, oh yeah, the team just had its worst season in franchise history, finishing 50 games under .500. The change just simply had to be made. Jim Crane just finished up a six-month process that saw his credibility challenged. Ask your average Astros fan what they know about Jim Crane, and you'll likely hear a response that has to do with allegations of racism.

Jim Crane has to get the fans' collective minds off of that, and off of the AL move. He has to make this franchise his own, and you don't start off on a $610m investment by leaving the previous owner's GM in place.

Ed made some solid moves. Picking Brett Myers off the scrap heap. Getting what he did for Hunter Pence. But Ed Wade made some indefensible moves. Signing Myers and Wandy to those long-term, expensive extensions. Kaz Matsui, Bill Hall, Miguel Tejada (yeah, he was an All-Star, but for a team that did not need to acquire a shortstop who aged two years in one Jeremy Schaap interview). Already writers and bloggers are trying to figure out which GM they'll be able to make fun of now. Wade never had a chance, his reputation was sealed, as a bumbling, middle reliever-lover, who was around simply to please the Phillies.

Wade started the rebuilding project, but when most feel like Michael Bourn was the better player of the Bourn/Pence tandem, and when Wade looked like he crapped the bed on the negotiations, it didn't exactly inspire confidence in his ability.

Could Ed Wade get the job done? Eventually, maybe. The Phillies certainly reaped the benefits of Ed Wade's beginning. But Wade was a polarizing figure who needed to go so that Crane could start to reinvent the franchise into one that could more adequately meet the extreme challenges the Astros are now facing. Drayton deserves to share the blame, but he's gone, too. So it is with Wade.

Who might replace Mills?

Brad Mills' hometown paper, the Visalia Times-Delta, talked to Brad Mills yesterday to get his reaction to the changing direction of the franchise:

"It's an exciting time. We talked [Sunday night] about a lot of the rumors that were coming out. And I'll be heading to Houston on Wednesday to meet with [ownership] to discuss the future...

...It's just exciting to see them with a plan."

Should that plan not include Mills, which is - justifiably - going to be the decision of the new GM. Who might replace him? Well, Ken Rosenthal suggests that it's a strong possibility, and throws out Yankees bench coach (and Astros' Triple-A manager from 1991-2001) Tony Pena, and Bo Porter whom, strangely enough, AC suggested as a possibility for the Astros back in 2009. Porter lives in Houston, and has interviewed for the Marlins and Nationals managerial vacancies.

Don't get too excited about Andrew Friedman

The way it sounds from reading the internets, the Rays granting the Astros permission to speak with Andrew Friedman about a front office position is something of a professional courtesy. Friedman also offered the same courtesy to the Cubs and the Astros' new rival, the hated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (you have to start somewhere, right?), and talks went virtually nowhere.

Jon Heyman, for what it's worth, says the Astros' plan all along was to let Friedman turn them down like a cheerleader, and then conduct their search.

So, should you be excited? Absolutely. This shows that the New Regime is invested in finding the best people. It's just probably best to leave it at that.

Astros receive permission to interview Andrew Friedman

Holy Hannah! The Astros have received permission to interview Tampa Bay's Andrew Friedman.

Justice:
Astros owner Jim Crane and CEO George Postolos are hoping the lure of returning to fix the team he grew up rooting for would be just such an extraordinary situation.

Gerry Hunsicker apparently will not be interviewed for the position.

The question, for me, is what compensation would be necessary for the Astros to send the Rays' way if the Astros make the move. Hey, after paying Ed Wade for the next two years, maybe Jim Crane is in a compensating mood.

Brad Mills has yet to hear from new regime

Zachary Levine tweets:

For whatever it is or isn't worth, Brad Mills said he's had no discussions with Astros new ownership about his future.

This form of communication didn't work out so well for Tal Smith.

Chris Johnson's dad got a job

With a captip to Hardball Talk, Chris Johnson's dad - Ron - who was fired by the Red Sox last month, will be the manager of the Norfolk Tides, Triple-A affiliate of the Orioles.

Thoughts from the Crawfish Boxes

Here are some good thoughts from the Crawfish Boxes on the events of the last 12 hours.

Your money quote:
I know Crane got the $70 million for negotiating in the months between the July vote and the November confirmation. He probably was able to then use some of that savings to justify eating two years of Wade's contract. But, it still stinks. Selig ramrodded this whole AL move down the Houston franchise's throat and it cost him more than just money. It cost him time.

Timeline sort of, maybe, in place

Jon Heyman says that the GM will be in place before they address Mills' status.

This makes sense, might as well let your GM have a say in who the manager is or isn't.

Baseball Time in Arlington's reaction

Now that we have to start thinking about AL West reactions to the Astros news, if you're not already, you should be acquainted with Baseball Time in Arlington, because they're an excellent Rangers-oriented (obviously) blog. They have some thoughts on what today's news means for the Rangers, with emphasis on the possibility of Levine/Preller, and even Mike Maddux as next manager (should Mills get fired).

Schafer playing for Team Drug Intervention

Apparently it's Overwhelming Amounts of News Day, as Zach Levine is reporting that Jordan Schafer:

...has opted for Florida’s pretrial intervention program in a case which saw him charged with two drug-related crimes, his lawyer said this morning.

Should he manage to complete the program, stay off the herb, or Cheesecake Factories, there will be no additional penalty to his drug-related charges.

The "Real Ed Wade" (from 2005)

Here's the text of a PhillyBurbs story from 2005 on the real Ed Wade, and what a douche he was.

An excerpt:
Late this summer, Wade repeatedly chewed out closer Billy Wagner - sometimes in person, sometimes over the phone - for comments he read in the newspaper and during contract negotiations. Wagner took this verbal abuse for a while, then got fed up and began hanging up on Wade.

Years earlier, Wade called a team meeting to scream at players. One pitcher said everyone buried their heads in their arms so Wade couldn't see them laughing at him.

Two springs ago, Wade was furious at Phillies beat writers, called a morning meeting and cursed for about 20 minutes. I still have the tape from that one. You should hear it. It's something else, right out of the Lee Elia school of bleeps. He got personal. Ask Philadelphia Daily News baseball writer Marcus Hayes, who remained calm as his character was assassinated and he was being called an officious [bleep]."

On a Sunday in July 2004, the day Eric Milton flirted with a no-hitter, Wade lost it in front of the Phillies dugout when Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Sam Carchidi asked him if "there were any trade developments." Carchidi, who does not cover the team regularly, was told with anger: "If you were here everyday, you would know." Wade ended the shouting match by saying, "Kiss my [bleeping bleep], Sam."

It's incendiary, and as Randy Miller writes:
This isn't about kicking a man when he's down. It's about shedding some truth about the Wade era.

Derek Dietrich didn't think he could play baseball right away with the Astros organization, apparently

Another side note, while we comb the intertubes and Twinker for more Ed Wade/Tal Smith details. Here's an interview with 2007 3rd Round pick - and subsequently unsigned - Derek Dietrich.

So what happened with that Astros decision? Dietrich, now a prospect with Tampa Bay, as if that's fair:
“I knew I wanted to go somewhere where I could play baseball year round and in nice weather. But more than anything, I wanted a place where I could go and play right away, because the only way you can get better in this game is to play. (Georgia Tech Head) Coach (Danny) Hall assured me that he was going to give me an opportunity to play right away, and the facilities are unbelievable at Georgia Tech. It’s one of the best places to play in the country with great crowds, great fans.”

Captip to Top Prospect Alert for the link.

Top 2000 (!) Prospects

The blog MILB Prospects put together an ambitious ranking of the top 2000 prospects in all of baseball based solely on stats, then assigned each player a grade representing that prospects likelihood to improve using that player's age and level.

Again, this is solely data driven, no consideration given for being "toolsy", having a "good makeup", or being a "baseball guy".

There's a ton of stuff, obviously, but the highlights would include Villar at #43, Springer at #90, and Oberholtzer at #94. I'm not sure how Springer got ranked after all of 8 games, but whatever.

Wladimir Sutil out

In a secondary, or even tertiary, tranzaction note, we find from Farmstros that Wladimir Sutil has signed a minor-league deal with the Diamondbacks.

This clears out the Triple-A competition for Jonathan Villar to move up to the SS position for the RedHawks since Anderson Hernandez, who played the most games at SS for OKC in 2011 (once you clear out Manzella), has a shot at making the Opening Day roster for the Astros.

The hell is an Evergreen Provision?

Zach Levine just tweeted:

Ed Wade said that because of an evergreen provision, his deal was guaranteed through 2013, not 2012.

UPDATE: Zach Levine has the story:
Former Astros general manager Ed Wade had a provision in his contract that guaranteed his 2013 salary in addition to his 2012 figure, he said Monday morning a day after his firing was announced by the Astros. In conjunction with the evergreen provision that triggered the renewal of his deal for what would have been a sixth season in 2013, his dismissal leaves the Astros on the hook for two years of his salary in addition to that of their new general manager.

So...what the hell is an evergreen provision? The "evergreen" term indicates, according to the HOA Law Blog, that the contract could - in theory - last forever.
When the board receives a proposed contract with an evergreen provision that automatically renews the contract (they're called evergreen provisions because the contract could virtually last forever), the board has options.
First, the board could just say no. Most vendors will relent and agree to a more reasonable termination provision. If the board is putting a contract up for bid, tell the vendors upfront that you are not going to agree to an evergreen termination provision nor an extended term of contract, and that the board wants the ability to terminate the contract for cause.

Investopedia says (though obviously not in the context of baseball):
...Rather than go through the process of approving allotments every year, a company can adopt what is known as an evergreen option provision, which provides for an automatic allotment of equity compensation every year.

These types of provisions are highly discouraged:
Rather than agreeing to an evergreen provision, suggest that both parties mutually agree upon additional one-year increments in writing, at the end of each term. If the other party insists on an evergreen term, negotiate a reasonably conscribed no cause termination clause. This will significantly reduce the risk associated with inadvertently rolling into an additional year, as you can simply exercise the “out” clause and terminate the agreement.

Hooray for Drayton! The Astros are giving Ed Wade a two-year paid vacation!

Wade knew on Wednesday

Happy Thanksgiving, huh? Ed Wade was told last Wednesday that he would not be returning in 2012.

Wade:
“There was really no discussion beyond that. I did have an opportunity to talk about some of our staff and the esteem I hold them and [manager Brad Mills]. It was a very brief conversation. We’ll move forward from here.”

Justice: Brad Mills is safe

In Richard Justice's retrospective on Wade's career, we get this little nugget (that somewhat bucks conventional wisdom):

Jim Crane and George Postolos had to decide, not whether Ed Wade had done a bad job, but whether they could hire someone better. They decided they could and that’s why it appears Wade will be fired Monday. (Manager Brad Mills is safe.)

That's quite a parenthetical note, but Justice goes on...

Wade and Tal Smith may be the most visible departures, but if they’re the only changes, Crane and Postolos will be making a huge mistake.

For whom is that intended? Mills? Heck? Gottfried? Given the speed with which Wade and Smith were dismissed, I doubt that's the end of the axe-wielding.

Olney: Wade isn't entirely to blame

Buster Olney's (Insider-only) column this morning addresses how Houston gets back to relevance.

He links back to Houston media quite a bit, but does warn this:
There are a lot of industry-wide questions about the direction of the organization, about what kind of owner Crane will be, and until that becomes clearer, some folks who have alternatives may choose to wait rather than join the Astros.

And on Wade's legacy:
(For many years) Houston was among the small handful of teams that honored the slot recommendations from the Commissioner's office, and in recent years, owner Drayton McLane drastically cut the Astros' budget. Wade wasn't given a lot to work with and has had some dead money to work through, and the sudden shift to austerity is the root cause for the disintegration of the franchise. (Note, Richard Justice says Wade's legacy is complicated).

Let's be clear about something, and remember this carefully, because we Astros fans are a little too close to the situation to be completely objective: these positions (GM and, potentially, manager) are not exactly the most attractive positions in baseball. Why? I don't think it needs to be explained but let's take a look at the challenges the incoming front office will be facing:

1. Depressed, angry fan base.
2. Transition between leagues.
3. Weak major-league roster, comparatively.
4. The fruits of Ed Wade's labor in trades/draft, won't be realized for at least two more years...if at all.

And that's just off the top of my head. Buster Olney talked to a "really smart executive" (yes, that's exactly how Olney described them) who said that the Astros were 4-7 years away from respectability. That's a really long time in my view, but it should tell you how far the franchise has fallen from being the toast of the National League. And even when they were the best team in the NL, the Astros weren't doing anything to keep them in that position. It's like they tried to out-Marlin the Marlins, and failed so, so miserably.

This is Drayton's legacy. Does the fall of the franchise - and the time it will take to rebuild it - outweigh the "glory years?" In my estimation, yes. Would you rather be in a solid band for 15 years, or a one-hit wonder? As of 2012, the Astros' "glory years" were a one-hit wonder.

Through this whole regime change, remember this sad fact: If the Astros are, as the super smart wonder executive says, 4-7 years away, what GM would want to step into that situation? Only two GMs in franchise history - Spec Richardson ('67-'75) and Gerry Hunsicker ('95-'04) - were given 7+ years at the helm.

This is an era in which GMs aren't given a whole lot of time to make their mark. Brian Sabean (1996), Billy Beane (1997), and Brian Cashman (1998) are the only GMs to take their places prior to 2000. What aspiring GM would want to take on a (potential) seven year project?

Just so you know, it's unlikely Mills will end up in Boston

The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham doesn't see Brad Mills in Boston, should the axe fall on Mills today (or this week, but honestly, if it's going to happen, it's probably going to be today).

Although Mills was widely respected during his five years as Terry Francona's bench coach, hiring somebody so closely aligned to the former manager wouldn't seem to make much sense. The Red Sox didn't even give DeMarlo Hale a courtesy interview.

You also have to wonder whether Mills would be interested in replacing his best friend after what was an ugly ending to his days in Boston.

Ed Wade, Tal Smith out

So it happened. Late last (Sunday) night, before the heart-to-heart meetings were scheduled to take place, Jim Crane and CEO George Postolos dismissed Ed Wade and Tal Smith.

In a statement released by the team last night, Postolos wrote:
“With the change in ownership, we would like a fresh start in baseball operations. We have told Ed and Tal that we are making a change. We recognize their dedication to the Houston Astros. We thank each of them for their significant contributions and many years of service to the Astros, and wish them our very best as they pursue new opportunities.”

Wade was under contract through 2012, so he'll get a year's worth of paid vacation. Tal Smith will head off to a farm in Connecticut so he can run freely through a field.

Who are they looking for?
“We are searching for a candidate who has the knowledge, skills and experience to build a winner and a strong commitment to player development in order to sustain success. Our goal is to consistently compete for a championship, and we know the first step towards that goal is to develop one of the top farm systems in baseball. We will hire the best candidate available to achieve our goal.”

Tal Smith isn't happy about it. He told Mark Berman:
"I wrote Jim Crane on June 8th, a four or five page letter asking for a meeting. He responded by e-mail that very day and he said 'I am currently on the road traveling until next week. I'll give you a call next week to set up a time for us to get together. Thanks for your letter.' I have yet to hear from him. After 54 years in the game and 35 years of service to the Astros, I'm disappointed that I never got the chance to really sit down and talk to Jim."

Now, I can certainly understand that. But Crane had some pretty big issues to deal with. Like dealing with constant allegations of racism, war profiteering, and Bud Selig. Could Crane meet with Tal Smith and plan the future when it was up in the air if he would actually own the team?

We'll be addressing that, and a number of other topics related to this news, as the day moves on.

This is the kind of story that makes a blogger want to clear his schedule

Smilin' Ken Rosenthal has a story up with some rumors regarding the future of the Astros taking a dramatic turn...AS EARLY AS TOMORROW.

Jim Crane, erroneously listed as "Jim Crain" by Rosenthal/Morosi (seriously? There's only 29 other owners - get the guy's name right), is expected - by sources - to fire Ed Wade, with Tal Smith to retire.

Crain and new team president George Postolos plan one-on-one meetings with all of the team’s top executives starting Monday, sources say.

More to come, of course.

UPDATE: Fox Sports fixed the spelling of Crane's name. Well done, Twitter.

Red Sox have asked about Wandy

Hey, here's a report from the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo:

The Astros are getting more and more inquiries about his availability. The Red Sox are one of the teams that have asked.

Wouldn't it be interesting to face Wandy and the Red Sox in 2013? Meanwhile, Cafardo has another note on our old pal Brad Mills:

Mills, GM Ed Wade, and many scouts and organizational people in Houston are awaiting their fate now that Jim Crane has taken over as owner. It was thought that there would be no changes organizationally until next season, but most staffers are on pins and needles.

I think we can all safely say that "pins and needles" is a fine place to be right about now...

Hey, I think the Astros are moving to the AL. Like, now.

Buster Olney just tweeted:

Am told that the playoff fields will expand IMMEDIATELY, for 2012. Five teams in each league, with a one-game playoff between two wildcards.

Uh, so for that to happen, the Astros would move to the American League in time for next season. Looks like Carlos Lee will get to DH, after all. More to follow...

UPDATE: Hold on. That may not be right. They could possibly make that move without moving the Astros just yet.

Minor League Ball prospect list

After discussing the Astros prospect list with readers the last few days, John Sickels over at minorleagueball.com has compiled his top prospect list. The top two are Singleton and Springer, both rated as B+. Once again, the top of the list is dominated by kids brought over in trades recently, accounting for 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 8. I don't know if that means our homegrown players are that bad, or these last few trades have been that good.

Tell us something we don't know: "There is a large group of Grade C prospects"

For my part, I'm going to continue touting LHP Alex Sogard, who isn't mentioned at all in this list, as a sleeper prospect until he proves me wrong. Kids got some good stuff and solid peripheral stats. Also, what should we call Eddie's Farm after Eddie's gone? I suppose just change the "Eddie" part?

Barmes to Pittsburgh

Yep, the Astros have no shortstop as Clint Barmes signed a 2-year, $10.5m deal with the Pirates.

Barmes:
"In talking with my agent and talking with the club, they were wanting to make a decision and they wanted to know by pretty much yesterday who their shortstop was going to be so they could continue to move on. It was one of those things they had a few others guys lined up behind me, and the way it was explained to me, I was the first in line as far as who they wanted. They threw a great offer."

The Astros will get a compensation pick for the Pirates signing the Type B free agent.

Angel Sanchez is - at the moment - most likely to fill that void, since the Astros don't really want to move Jimmy Paredes over from 3rd. If the Astros are looking for a short-term free agent move, Ronny Cedeno is neither a Type B nor B free agent, and thus wouldn't cost any picks. Edgar Renteria, Drew Sutton, and Cesar Izturis also fit that bill. Type B options at SS include Yuniesky Betancourt, Rafael Furcal, and Alex Gonzalez.