Thursday Morning Hot Links

My kingdom for Jim Crane to come and introduce the new Astros manager as "Busty Daker." Dusty Baker is the 24th manager in Astros' history (Baker is currently one game behind Salty Parker in "Career Astros Games Managed". By the end of May, Baker will rank 19th in Games Managed in Astros History. He signed a 1-year guaranteed deal with a club option or a buyout. Jim Crane:
He's a winner, and more importantly, a strong leader who has earned the respect of not only his players, but of virtually everyone that he has touched in baseball.

Whether you believe Jim Crane or not, the hiring of Dusty Baker is about regaining legitimacy.

Baker:
I'm extremely thankful for this opportunity. This is a great ballclub with outstanding players that know how to win. I applaud Jim Crane for the leadership he has shown in recent weeks and look forward to working with him and the players to bring a championship to the city of Houston. 

Dusty Baker is just 137 wins from becoming the 12th manager to reach 2,000 wins. With this roster, he could do it by September.

As I mentioned on Twitter, and on the Lima Time Time live show on Tuesday night, there is a certain perspective in which Dusty Baker makes sense:

1. They need someone who is well-respected (by the media and General Baseball People, anyway - your complaints were heard loud and clear)...
2. They need someone who has managed in a variety of situations...
3. They need someone who can handle A Circus.

Dusty Baker checks all of those boxes. He managed Barry Bonds for ten years, including Bonds' 2001 73HR season. He has managed in nine separate postseasons, won 95+ games six times, and 103 games once (in his rookie managerial year, when the Giants famously won that many games and didn't even get into the postseason). Baker has managed in San Francisco, Chicago, and Washington, so he has dealt with Bonds, Prior/Wood, Harper, Scherzer, etc. Would I have been equally fine with Buck Showalter? Maybe! Do I wish Espada had gotten the job? Sure!

But this is an extraordinary time for the Astros. They're coming off one of the biggest scandals in recent baseball memory (however common it may have been throughout literally all of baseball history). It's certainly the largest baseball scandal of the Twitter Era, which makes it that much more insufferable. And the fact that Yankee and Dodger Fan is the most aggrieved, it's just a God-awful time. If you're enjoying this era of Astros Baseball, well, you're a psychopath. Every city to which the Astros travel is going to be that city's sports story of the day...Kind of like Bonds was in 2001. Baker managed through that and made it to Game 7 of the World Series in 2002....when the Giants had a 3-2 lead before losing both Games 6 & 7 to Anaheim (and, to be fair, both of those games were in Anaheim).

Columnists across [puts hand across forehead] the land are going to love it because their hand-wringing, and bringing blood out of a turnip, will easily provide that week's Column. But then they have to deal with Dusty Baker, whom pretty much everyone loves except for you, who gets their narrative from FanGraphs. Their hearts will melt. It's an organizational rehab assignment, for a year, and the best-case scenario is that the Astros (and by that I of course mean Us) and Dusty Baker gets their ring in 2020. Winning a World Series like this, in this year, with this much hate, would be delicious, and the scrutiny would cleanse it. Yankee and Dodger Fan would move the goalposts, to be sure. But it would be sweeter than the first (I think).

And for everyone who busts on Baker's postseason record, let's look at it more closely:

1997: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to the eventual WS Champion Marlins.
2000: Lost in the NLDS 3-1 to the eventual NL Pennant-Winning Mets. Two of those games went to extra innings.
2002: Lost in the World Series 4-3 to Anaheim
2003: Lost in the NLCS 4-3 to the eventual WS Champion Marlins. This is the Bartman series.
2010: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to Philadelphia. Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter in Game 1. Cole Hamels threw a CGSHO in Game 3.
2012: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to the eventual WS Champion Giants
2013: Lost in the Wild Card Game to the [squints] Pirates
2016: Lost in the NLDS 3-2 to the Dodgers, who won the Pennant in 2017...
2017: Lost in the NLDS 3-2 to the Cubs, who won the World Series in 2016. Max Scherzer allowed four runs in the 5th Inning of Game 5.

Five-game series are a crapshoot. We almost got to see that firsthand in 2019 against Tampa. Anyhow, Dusty Baker's record in postseason games when facing elimination is 5-9. A.J. Hinch's record in postseason games when facing elimination was 7-3 (I'm willing to admit my math could be fuzzy here). But I'm not busting on A.J. Hinch! Hinch is/was the greatest manager in Astros history, and I'm sad that he's gone, I wish he would come back! I wish he hadn't been fired!

Anyhow, no matter how you feel about it, the 2020 Astros, who won 107 games in 2019 and lost the World Series by going 0-4 at home - something that HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HISTORY I THINK - but is returning every major player except for Gerrit Cole and Robinson Chirinos. Expect a dip, but I - literally me - could absolutely manage this team to 90 wins. They're that good. Now they have Dusty Baker, who will have Joe Espada as his Bench Coach, to help out.

Crane:
We're in a spot where we've had some unfortunate things happen and we've owned up to it. We need a strong leader that's been in a lot of different situations and has experience.

Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker gives the Astros a stabilizing presence. Rome:
The team is sullied by scandal but still set to contend for a title. Its image and reputation remain in ruins. Players will endure eight months of invective from opposing crowds and players. Baker arrives as a slice of serenity amid acrimony, a man who Crane hopes can galvanize an Astros clubhouse still searching for a way forward.

Rome talked to Ralph Garr: Houstonian, 1974 NL Batting Champ, and former teammate of Dusty:
He's the right man for the job. It's not going to be easy for those players. They're going to have to have somebody to lean on. He knows how to treat people, and he cares about his players. He can make adjustments, and he can help the Astros stay competitive.

The press conference to introduce Baker will be at 2pm Central.

Check out Dave Sheinin's 2016 profile of Dusty Baker. It's worth your time.

Inside Dusty Baker's life in baseball. Jerome Solomon says it's a good hire. So does Lance Berkman, if "Lance" "Berkman" is your cup of tea.  Buster Olney says "there's no better choice" than Dusty Baker to Houston. The Athletic's Britt Ghiroli has an excellent piece about what Dusty could mean for Houston, and what Houston could mean for Dusty.

If Dusty's the manager, Houston got better.
-Nationals GM Mike Rizzo.

Dusty Baker will manage the AL All-Star Team...in Dodger Stadium...against Washington's Dave Martinez. Should the 2020 Astros make the postseason he'll be the first manager to take five different teams to the postseason.

Ken Rosenthal notes that you can expect Baker to hire Chris Speier, who has been on a number of his staffs.

Predictably, Jon Heyman isn't a fan of...how the Astros told the other candidates.

*Anyway, other stuff:

Astros Fan Tony Adams listened to every single freaking pitch from the 2017 Astros season to try to detect trash-can banging and built a website based on what he found. It's impressive, and you should give it a look. Check out The Athletic's Marc Carig, on Tony's story.

Tampa Bay's VP of Baseball Operations James Click interviewed for the vacant GM gig on Wednesday. Kansas City's Director of Pro Scouting Gene Watson has also interviewed for the GM spot. So has MLB Senior VP Peter Woodfork.

Woodfork was mentioned in an early-December 2019 Bob Nightengale column wondering why people of color were getting left out of GM interviews.

*The Astros win the prestigious Offseason Best Outfield In The AL West Award from MLB.com.

*MLB.com predicted the 2020 Astros' rotation would go Verlander-Greinke-McCullers-Urquidy-Peacock.

*The Astros have just one player - Forrest Whitley - on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects list for the first time since 2012. But Bregs, Yordan, and Kyle Tucker are still awfully young so...

*Former Astros Great Gregorio Petit will be Corpus' manager, his first stint at the head of a team. Former Astros Great Wladimir Sutil will manage a team for the first time, at Tri-City.

*Former Astros Great Scott Kazmir is attempting a comeback.

*The Hardball Times' Chris Bouton: To Forgive Is Baseball - Armando Galarraga and Jim Joyce.

*This small crew makes every Super Bowl football by hand.

*NPR: The thinking behind China's Quarantines and (Illegal) Village Blockades.

*A Musical Selection:

Eight More Depart for Minor League Camp

The Astros have cut eight more from their Spring Training squad, reassigning Carlos Correa, Darin Downs, Tyler Heineman, James Hoyt and Gregorio Petit while optioning Jake Buchanan, Matt Dominguez and Max Stassi.

Downs, Hoyt, Heineman and Petit will all remain with the team for the exhibition part of Spring Training

The Astros now have 32 players in camp.  Their last cut reduced them to 41 players, then Dan Johnson departed via trade to reduce that to 40.

These cuts clear up a couple of position battles that were becoming kind of obvious anyhow.  Firstly, at catcher, Castro and Conger will split the catching duties (with Gattis available only for emergencies given he has yet to appear behind the plate in the Spring Training game).  No surprise there, although Stassi could encourage the Astros to make a trade with a strong year at Fresno.  Stassi logged 19 plate appearances, walking three times and striking out twice.  He managed 6 hits, including 2 doubles and a home run.  If he needed a good offensive season, this was a reasonable start - small sample size be damned.

Secondly, Valbuena looks poised to assume the third base duties, which has been becoming increasingly obvious for a while as well.  Valbuena has the huge advantage of swinging from the left side of the dish, which helps address the Astros' struggles against right-handed pitching last year.  Additionally, Dominguez had a horror 2014 which resulted in a WAR well into negative figures.  He looked lost at the plate at times last year, swinging a pitches out of the strike zone as well as having contact issues with pitches inside the strike zone.

In Spring Training this year, Matty D had 38 plate appearances, walking twice, striking out 5 times, and hitting 9 singles.  His triple-slash of .250/.282/.250 looks similar to the 2014 regular season, except for the total lack of power.  So Valbuena gets the third base job to start the season, and Dominguez appears ticketed for the minors.  The real question is whether Dominguez can hold his 40-man roster spot - especially if Joe Thatcher and/or Roberto Hernandez make the 25-man roster.  My pick is that he does hold his roster spot until at least mid-season-ish.

Correa and Heineman had no real chance of making the team by virtue of their relatively junior status.  I was watching when Correa effortlessly drove a curveball that he was out on front of over the LF fence against the Phillies the other day.  Correa had 43 plate appearances, walked twice and struck out 10 times, and had 14 hits, of which 1 was a double and two were home runs.  I am looking forward to watching him everyday in the majors, perhaps as soon as later this year.

Heineman was unsurprisingly used sparingly in Spring Traning - if he is the catcher of the future, then he is a wee way away, after all.  He had 7 plate appearances, and recorded a double against no strikeouts and no walks.  His focus was not really on his hitting this Spring - he was more in camp to learn how to work with the pitching staff and get tips from the older guys.

Hoyt, Buchanan and Downs had an opportunity to add their names to a crowded 'pen situation, but all represent easy cuts for the Astros to make.

James Hoyt has not yet made the the majors, so the chances were that he was always going to be cut prior to the roster being set.  He equipped himself well, pitching 8.1 innings in 7 games, allowing 8 baserunners (3 hits and 5 walks) while striking out 11.

Jake Buchanan was also an easy cut because he seems - and always seemed - destined to be shuttling between the majors and minors this season.  He also threw 8.1 innings pitched, but gave up 7R / 5ER on 12 hits and 3 walks against 4 strikeouts.  He was doing well until he had one bad outing, I seem to remember, but he has marginal stuff and needs to locate his pitches to be effective.

Darin Downs was on the outside-looking-in from early in spring training, thanks to the offseason additions of Thatcher (in the LOOGY role) and the various other additions like Straily and Hernandez in the starting role.  He struggled in a small sample: 4.2IP, 11 hits and 4 walks, 7 runs / earned runs, and 3 strikeouts.  Downs can pitch better than that, and will have an opportunity to work it all out at Fresno.

Finally, Gregorio Petit lost out on a battle for a utility job thanks to the combined efforts of Marwin Gonzalez - who has been a solid bench guy for the Astros for a couple of seasons - and Jonathan Villar - whose demise has been greatly exaggerated.

Petit managed 27 plate appearances, recorded 8 hits, walked 3 times, and struck out five.  He hit two doubles.  Petit did his stock no harm at all, and will be a very useful AAA depth-piece for the Astros going forward.

The next cut will be the big one, and will probably occur shortly.  At least this year, the Astros have actual competition, and actual options.

Stay posted.

Best of Luck, Gregorio

With Jed Lowrie joining the fray, Gregorio Petit was DFA'd, meaning that the Astros now have 10 days to trade him, or else he becomes a free agent.  This was a predictable move, and probably means that no catcher-related or Fowler-related trade is on the horizon, else the Lowrie signing merely would have been delayed.

Petit enjoyed somewhat of a career resurgence with the Astros in 2014, appearing in the Majors for the first time since 2009.  He posted a pleasant .278/.300/.423 line in 100 plate appearances, with two home runs and 8 doubles.  He walked once against 25 strikeouts.  He was versatile defensively, appearing at second, third and short.  He also possesses a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

At this stage of the Astros rebuild/upswing, there probably isn't room for both him and Marwin Gonzalez on the roster.  Gonzalez also had a great 2014, posting a similar .277/.327/.400 triple slash in 310 plate appearances.  Gonzalez also logged time at first base and the corner outfield positions - read into that what you want.  Regardless, Gonzalez's career .248/.291/.354 line in 750-odd PA's isn't that much different from Petit's .278/.301/.391 career line in 156 PA's on the surface (with the standard small sample-size caveat).

So, with Petit's future with the Astros uncertain, it makes sense to re-live a couple of Gregorio Petit special moments for 2014.  I recall two - this awesome bit of base-running against the Bo Sox that left Christian Vazquez and Burke Badenhop flummoxed (and Cockroach unable to even describe it), and this three-run jack (on a great pitch) to snap the Angels' 10-game win streak and support a Dallas Keuchal gem.  Feel free to discuss - or add other moments - in the comments.

And here is Petit's MLB highlight archive.  Some fun viewing there!

So whatever happens, best of luck Gregorio, and I hope your ML career continues somewhere.  One-fifty career plate appearances doesn't seem enough to me.

Friday Morning Hot Links

Here's what you need to know while you stand outside around a smoker (meat, or cigarette):

*The Declaration of Independence wasn't actually signed on July 4th. (Note: Don't tell people this.)

*George Springer and Collin McHugh made a Baseball America mid-season All-Star team.

*Jon Heyman: "There's no absolute certainty" the Astros will sign Brady Aiken.

*Bo Porter hit Jason Castro 2nd to try to get him going.

*Carlos Corporan rented a bigger house than he needed because he promised Kike Hernandez - who is Corporan's daughter's godfather - he would save him some room when he got called up.

*While this trade deadline will be less active, bullpen pieces could be moved.

*Gregorio Petit, Max Stassi, and Nick Tropeano are your OKC reps for the PCL All-Star Team

All kinds of tranzactionz

Big goings on today in Astros camp as the regular season gets down-under way (get it?). As an aside, I had every intention of watching the season opener at 3am. I went to bed at a reasonable time, and the daughter woke up at 2:30. I got her taken care of, and put her back down at 2:45, sat on the couch ready to go and...fell asleep. Woke up at 7:00. Any of y'all watch?

Anyhow, let's run down everything that has happened in the last 15 hours.

*Peter Moylan tore his UCL, and is likely headed for another Tommy John surgery (he had a first in 2008).

*The Astros optioned lefty reliever Darin Downs to OKC and reassigned Gregorio Petit and Japhet Amador to minor-league camp. As Drellich noted, if the Astros are going to have a 2nd lefty out of the bullpen (assuming Kevin Chapman is the primary lefty), it's going to be Raul Valdez - who doesn't have any options left. It also looks likely that Jesus Guzman and Marc Krauss are going to make the team.

*The Astros released J.D. Martinez.

Martinez was supposed to have a relatively high salary for a Triple A player this year. Said might have spooked teams, but can negotiate now
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 22, 2014

This saddens me. Because for a couple of years it was really fun to do the minor-league recaps, as Martinez pretty much always hit. From 2009-11 Martinez never posted a minor-league OPS under .939. But it just didn't translate to the Majors. Martinez had a .742 OPS in his major-league debut, but declined to .685 in 2012 and .650 in 2013.