Wednesday, July 27, 2016

2016 Astros Trade Deadline: Targets - Round 3

Round 1

Round 2

Alright fine! I'll do Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran

I am using wRC+ throughout this article.

 The Astros could use some help in the outfield. What, with Alex Bregman being a bust (kidding). In all seriousness adding a veteran presence in the outfield (and at DH) would be a good idea for the Astros. Beltran is having a bit of a bounce back year. If you consider bouncing back from a 119 wRC+ in 2015 a down year for Beltran. On gut feel I don't like trading for Beltran. First, he's old. Second, he's not the defensive stud he was back in 2004. Third, he broke my heart after the 2004 season. Did I mention he's old?

This season he has a 137 wRC+, but that comes with a .322 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For his career Beltran has posted a .301 BABIP. I expect Beltran will regress a bit offensively in the second half of the season. Still he's a no-brainer upgrade over the other options in the outfield. He's an even better addition if he can DH full-time.

Price: He's a free agent after the season. He's old.Those factors will reduce his price, but he'll still require a solid offer from teams. Maybe a two top 30 guys. One possibly being a top 10 type of guy.

Jay Bruce

He's an appealing option to many Astros fans due to his Texas ties. On offense Bruce is having a resurgent season. Last year he had a 91 wRC+. So far this year he has a 129 wRC+ with a .289 BABIP. The BABIP is inline with his .287 career average. Defensively he should play left field for the Astros. Which is perfect! Considering George Springer currently plays right field for the Astros. Bruce is signed through this year plus has a $13M team option for 2017 with a $1M buyout.

Price: Bruce is in his 29 year old season. He's left-handed. Which, I think, helps the argument to make a trade for him. He has some control left and is an offensive upgrade in the outfield. I would expect something similar to Beltran. He may even cost slightly more. His ties to Houston would garner some excitement from the Astros fan base.

Matt Moore

I will be using ERA+.

Now this is an interesting suggestion. Moore has fallen on hard times the last two years after excellent results in his first four seasons. Last year he posted a 72 ERA+. This year he's improved to a 95 ERA+. For his career he has a 99 ERA+. He is left-handed so maybe you put him in the bullpen on a playoff roster if he continues to struggle. At 27 he still has time to figure out his issues from the past two season. Injury may play a role here as he's reached the 150 innings mark once in his career. He's not exactly a ground ball pitcher, but he's also not the strikeout pitcher he was in the minors. He seems to be what the Astros already have. A back of the rotation starter.

Price: This would be more of a buy low type of move for the Astros. He becomes a free agent after the 2018 season. He won't cost as much as someone like Archer. The Rays will still expect quite a bit in return for Moore. I'd expect at least three prospects in top 30.