Sunday Morning Hot Links

*Washington scored two runs in the top of the 9th to force a 2-2 tie in yesterday's game. Because Washington was the away team, they win on aggregate runs, and the Astros are eliminated from the 2018 season. They managed six hits - one for extra-bases (a double from A.J. Reed).

-Dallas Keuchel threw 3.2IP, 1H/0ER, 5K:0BB
-David Paulino threw 2.2IP, 0H/2R (0ER), 2K:2BB
-Tony Sipp allowed a hit and a walk in 1IP.
-Tim Federowicz was 2x2 with an RBI.

*Jerome Solomon writes that Verlander and Keuchel have taken different routes (pitch count vs innings pitched) to the same destination. Keuchel:
JV is a different cat. Sometimes we talk and I don't even understand how he doesn't ever get sore or anything. It just doesn't seem fair.

*Carlos Correa is determined to win an MVP:
MVP is something I don't want to retire without winning one. It would be like a dream come true. I already have a Rookie of the Year. I have an All-Star. I've got a World Series championship. That's amazing. I don't know if it's this year, but at some point, I'd like to win that, and I'll just try to improve my game every single day to try to accomplish that...

...I don't want to be one of the top [players], I want to be the top one....For me, right now it's the time to sacrifice a lot and put in the work...

*Hinch is going to start giving position players days off, so that they're used to 2-3 days off between Plate Appearances (looking at you, Evan Gattis) before the season starts.

*Joel Sherman writes that the Astros look an awful lot like the 1998-2000 Yankees. Sherman:
The dynastic Yankees won in the postseason for a variety of reasons, but one was that no one person in the lineup put undo [sic] pressure on himself, so strong was the belief that the guy behind him was of quality and could come through...Another reason the dynastic Yankees won in the postseason was that no matter what happened in any one game, the internal belief was the next starter was capable of winning a big game...The Astros have evolved into something akin to that. 

*In light of Dallas Keuchel's "We're Not The Cubs" slogan (which should, and will, be on a t-shirt), the Chicago Daily Herald's Barry Rozner has a pretty good look into what a World Series hangover actually looks like. Rozner:
[Kris Bryant] was gassed after the Dodgers eliminated the Cubs in last fall's NLCS. Bryant spoke of the year before, of it being Thanksgiving 2016 - after weeks of World Series celebrations - by the time he allowed his Las Vegas couch to secure his beaten body. By then, most of baseball had rested a month, and been back training another month, in preparation for the 2017 season. Bryant just wanted to sleep. And the turkey hadn't even been sliced. 

*Former Astros Great Nate Freiman is headed to Duke to get his MBA.

This is what George Springer saw in 2 PA from Chris Sale in Game 4 of the ALDS. It's a miracle to me that anyone hits anything.

Here's the 3d pitch tool -> https://t.co/zD7V2TPJ4L pic.twitter.com/6ZqQatH6pD

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 10, 2018

Black Friday Hot Links

*I spent Thanksgiving Day driving four hours and then getting mad online about Tony Massarotti's Hall of Fame ballot.

*The New York Post's Joel Sherman says the 2017 Astros could be like the 2016 Cubs, and are spending like it.

*The Yankees, Red Sox, Astros and Rangers seem to be the final four for Carlos Beltran. It also seems from that link that the Astros are interested in Mike Napoli as a stop-gap until A.J. Reed is ready.

*Joshua Prager wrote a piece in the New York Times on Ralph Branca, the man who gave up Bobby Thomson's "Shot Heard 'Round the World." Prager is also the author of The Echoing Green, which is simply the best baseball book I have ever read.

*The players who quietly retired in 2016.

Monday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros are more focused, more relaxed this Spring Training. And there are a variety of opinions as to why.

Five or six, seven years down the road from now, I hope to be a dynasty. And I think it's heading that way.
-Dallas Keuchel

*Jason Castro has been working on getting his bat in the strike zone earlier. He wants to stay in Houston and also found the arbitration process "awkward."

*Castro has a newfound respect for how hard Ken Giles throws.

*A.J. Hinch - who I just realized is six years older than me and now I'm in a depressive spiral - brings continuity to the 2016 Astros.

*Evan Gattis (hernia) isn't working out yet, but is involved in a lot of facets of camp. "We want his learning curve back into the baseball rhythm to be short. He'll do some tracking with the machine, he'll do some things with the cage that don't threaten his rehab, but I haven't given up on reintroducing catching to him once he gets healthy."
-A.J. Hinch

*Making the rotation is Mike Fiers' number one goal.

*The Astros are trying to shorten Lance McCullers' Spring Training.

*The Astros are interested in lefty reliever Randy Choate. Sipp and Kevin Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-Man roster.

*Preston Tucker: First baseman?

*Tyler Heineman: Magician.

*Hardball Times: The fascinating enigma of the non-roster invitee

*Guy Fieri Felix Hernandez can't believe he hasn't been to the playoffs.

*Joel Sherman has some ideas to prevent "serial losers" like Jeff Luhnow and Theo Epstein from rebuilding their teams.

*A century of baseball memorabilia was found in a Vancouver attic.

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros made a whole bunch of internal personnel changes yesterday. Notably:

-Quinton McCracken, who was director of player development and also apparently a possible GM candidate, is now Director of Player Personnel.
-Allen Rowin, who was assistant director of player development is now the Director of Minor League Operations
-Brandon Taubman is Director of Baseball Operations
-Mike Fast is Director of Research & Development
-Pete Putila is Assistant Director of Minor League Operations
-Tom Koch-Wiser is Manager of Advance Scouting
-Bill Firkus is Director of Sports Medicine and Performance

Luhnow, on the moves:
This is just sort of a next step, next wave. I challenged every functional leader to come up with a five-year vision of...how we can be the best, and a lot of the things you're seeing are as a result of that initiative.

Two weeks ago McCracken and Rowin were mentioned by Evan Drellich in a Chronicle piece about how Luhnow was looking to alter the landscape of the front office.

*Joel Sherman wrote yesterday about how Daniel Murphy's breakout postseason could put him in line for Chase Headley money (4yrs/$52m). Sherman asked executives where Murphy would land should he make it to free agency. First team up? Houston:
...because they love versatility and could use Murphy at first, third and DH, and want to diversify a lineup that strikes out too much. In addition, in private Astros notes leaked last year, it was revealed Houston and New York discussed a trade of Murphy for shortstop Jonathan Villar. 

Ahhh, good old Cardinals. While I look to see how close the Cardinals' front office is to getting indicted by a federal grand jury, I'll go along with TCB's take on this one: where would Murphy play? Doesn't mean that logjam can't be cleared with some trades or non-tenders, but it's hard to see happening.

*Johnny Cueto's Game 3 start last night:
2IP, 6H/8ER, 2K:4BB, HBP, HR.

With that Josh Donaldson home run, Johnny Cueto is the first pitcher in playoff history to go two or fewer IP and give up eight or more ER.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 20, 2015

I don't know if I'm elated or forlorn.

*Palm Beach County commissioners are scheduled to vote this morning on approving the budget that will allow the Astros/Nationals to begin work on their new Spring Training site. Work has not yet started, but it's already over budget by $9m.

*Bruce Markusen has been writing up a Where Are They Now of Jim Bouton's Ball Four and got to the 1969 Houston Astros.

What They're Saying: G2 vs NYY

Here's what They are saying following the Astros' 3-1 win over the Yankees in G2 last night...

LoHud Journal: Two games into the season, though, the Yankees are being thoroughly outhit by the Astros. The Astros! Two games hardly mean a thing in the course of a baseball season, but two games against a team that lost 111 games last season? It's deflating, especially coming out of a spring that actually felt fairly encouraging for this team.

Joel Sherman, New York Post: Still, with the teams widely expected to finish last in the AL West and East, respectively - Houston and Toronto - on the schedule to open, the Yankees were looking to jump-start their season. Heck, the Astros had lost their final 15 games last year, including the last three to a Yankees squad that was hardly trying.

Mark Feinsand, New York Daily News: It's hard to call the third game of a 162-game season a must-win, but getting swept by an Astros team that lost 111 games last season would make for a very long flight to Toronto Thursday night.

David Lennon, Newsday: For all the talk about it being early - which of course it very much is - we still have to ask the questions. Where do we start pointing the fingers? Do we need some kind of explanation for this?

Bob Klapisch: The Yankees, after all, have looked old and brittle during what was supposed to be three days of calisthenics in Houston - an early-season gift from the schedule-maker.

Carlos Beltran: "We're going to be fine, man. We haven't been able to put anything together offensively, but we have what it takes to play better and win ballgames. We don't need to worry about it."

Girardi, on Cosart: "His location was tremendous with his two pitches, his fastball and his curveball. When you have that type of velocity and that type of curveball and you're locating it, you can be pretty tough."

Three executives say to watch out for the Astros

In Joel Sherman's Notes column for the New York Post, he reiterates what we heard (and by "we heard" we mean "we saw on Twitter") about the Astros being a dark horse for Shin-Soo Choo.

If the Astros sense much of the market has fallen away for Choo, perhaps they could step into that breach and offer, say, a six-year, $120 million deal if no one is willing to go to the seven-year, $140-ish million Choo is seeking.

Wandy heading towards salary dump status

The New York Post's Joel Sherman tweeted that an AL executive said the Astros were asking for a big return for Wandy, even within the last few weeks.

Now it "will take little at deadline to get rid of most of his contract."

What a difference a year makes. 90 minutes before the trade deadline last year, the Astros received offers on Wandy, but "didn't hear anything they liked." Now they're apparently leaning towards dumping his salary less than six months after signing him to his long-term deal.

FanGraphs looks like Nostradmus when they wrote of Wandy's deal:
The odds are long that the Astros will get anything of real value for their money or years.

It's sad that it has come to this.

Pence vs. Swisher

Joel Sherman asked this morning (perhaps rhetorically):

When execs tell me #Astros want killer package for Pence, I wonder this: How much better is he than Swisher. Aren't both 6th-place hitters on good team. And would you give up killer package for Swisher?

Let's answer Sherman's question!

Pence: 28 years old, 672 games, lifetime .291/.339/.481, 515K:192BB, 118 OPS+
Swisher: 30 years old, 1000 games, lifetime .253/.359/.464, 875K:554BB, 116 OPS+

So Pence is younger, OPS is about the same, Pence has better AVG. Swisher has a higher OBP, less SLG.

In 2010-11:
Pence: .297/.339/.471, 123 OPS+, 185K:65BB
Swisher: .277/.362/.478, 125 OPS+, 208K:112BB

The question is: Who would you build a team around? A 28-year old hitter with a high AVG and SLG, who has been doing so with virtually no protection in the lineup, or a 30-year old hitter who plays marginal defense with a ton of protection.

I'll be honest, I thought this was a ridiculous question. But they're fairly similar players. Pence is from Texas, though, so he can automatically be trusted.

Oh, now the Yankees are just being silly

Captip to Citizen Andrew for pointing this out: The Yankees are apparently upset that they were not in on the Roy talks.

The New York Post's Joel Sherman:
There has been so much attention focused on the Yankees failing to get Cliff Lee last July and then again in the offseason that it is easy to forget that they dabbled with the idea of obtaining Dan Haren last July, as well, and offered some frustration that Houston never made them fully aware that Roy Oswalt was available. Perhaps the Yankees should have tried harder to obtain Haren and pushed harder to keep track of what was going on with Oswalt.

Are you kidding me? (And I don't mean Joel Sherman. He's a fine writer.) The Yankees weren't sure?

Yahoo's Tim Brown said on July 19 that the Yankees liked Roy, but not nearly as much as they liked Cliff Lee.

Jayson Stark said on July 23 that the Yankees were "lurking on the fringes" of the Roy talks.

Ken Rosenthal noted on July 24 that the Yankees were backing off on Roy, and pursuing Dan Haren instead. Later that day, Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi said the Yankees were scared of Roy's back problems.

On July 25, Jon Heyman said the Yankees weren't in on Roy, and were focusing on Dan Haren.

Nick Cafardo noted on July 25 that the Yankees weren't linked to Roy, but that an Astros official worried that New York was "too big time" for Roy, and that Roy was close to Pettitte - and that Clemens had told Roy how great New York is.

So either some of the best reporters in baseball were getting duped by the Media Relations Intern, or the Yankees are pissed at losing out to the Phillies on both Lee and Oswalt. Another case you could make is that the Astros weren't completely up front with the Yankees - but if the Yankees were so pissed about missing out on Roy, they may have taken a stronger stand about trading for Berkman hours after Philly completed the deal.

I've always thought that the Phillies' deal was the best deal available, because it makes no sense for Ed Wade to include such a large chunk of money to get it done. Nobody says, "Hell, I'll throw in millions, just because I can!" and then devolves into maniacal laughter.

It's the Yankees' fault for not making their desire clear, and it's the Yankees' arrogance for just assuming that they could buy whatever pitcher they wanted in the off-season.

It's certainly not Ed Wade's fault, for taking the best available deal.

Berkman's years in Houston keep him from being a True Yankee

So Joel Sherman has an article in which he talks about new Yankee Lance Berkman, and his disadvantage from being forced to play in Houston and the NL Central - which is apparently baseball's version of being Helen Keller:


What struck Andy Pettitte hardest when he left the Yankees for the Astros after the 2003 season was not separation anxiety from the only organization he had ever known or the elation of playing in his home city.

No, what smacked Pettitte was the difference in intensity. Where was the pitch-to-pitch, inning-to-inning passion that had been so part of Yankees life? Where were the second-by-second critiques from the fans and media? Where was the unrelenting expectations to thrive?

Even after three years as an Astro, he never could reconcile the absence of that fervor. Now Lance Berkman is experiencing the same scenario, only in reverse. A Texan who schooled at Rice and had played exclusively for the Astros, Berkman not only has to adapt to New York, but figure out how to raise his game from the dredges of the majors’ worst division to the top of the best.

Makes you love the Yankees and New York media even more, no?

Joel Sherman hearts Wandy

What do the Mets need, according to Joel Sherman? Wandy Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is making $5 million this season and can be a free agent after next year. He is not having a good campaign, going 8-11 with a 4.80 ERA. But over the previous two seasons he was 23-19 with a 3.23 ERA. The Mets have talked about scouring the market for pitchers they like who are underperforming this year but who their scouts like, hoping they might be able to buy low. I have no idea if their scouts like Rodriguez.

But he is still only 31 and a lefty. In his last start on Sunday, he held the Reds to one hit and no runs over seven innings. He is durable. And he is a flyball pitcher, who would probably benefit coming to big Citi Field, though he actually pitches much better at offensively friendly Minute Maid Park than on the road.

And because Joel Sherman said it, it must be true

That is said without a hint of snark, by the way.

Joel Sherman:
Astros definitely talking to teams about LHP Wandy Rodriguez.

It's done. But not officially.

Lance Berkman is a Yankee. Just sit back and think about where you were in September 1999, when he came up. And think about where you are now. That's a lot of my life tied up when Lance was an Astro.

Granted, he may be back next year, and he could feasibly change his mind in the next 20 hours, but he probably won't.

Joel Sherman explains the 24-hour window and also explains why Berkman won't be negating this deal:
A person involved in the negotiations for this trade said Berkman was elated to rejoin his pal, Andy Pettitte, with the Yankees and that “Lance was viewing this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to play with the Yankees.”

Do you see the difference between the organizations? Lance, a lifer with the Astros, native Texan, Rice alum (etc.) is elated to go join the Yankees. J.A. Happ, taking the field in front of a team without Berkman or Pence, and featuring Carlos Lee and Pedro Feliz, wept at leaving "the only place he's ever known."

The Astros are on the right path, but honestly? It's sad how bad things had become.

Let's all get comfortable with Lance wearing those other pinstripes

Just a flurry of activity in the last few minutes about the Lance-to-NYY possibility.

Alyson Footer:
Puma is here. Feels there is a decent possibility he'll be traded. But he has not been traded.

Joel Sherman:
Hearing Berkman deal from Astros to Yankees is on verge of completion.

Buster Olney:
The Steinbrenners have given pre-approval to the acquisition of a large salary such as Lance Berkman or Adam Dunn.

Alyson Footer:
Berkman said no matter what happens, he wants the opp. to come back to Astros next year. So a requirement if he was traded would be for the new team to NOT pick up his option. He's the anti-Oswalt.

Berkman next?

The NY Post's Joel Sherman talked to an AL exec who said that teams are starting to warm up to Lance Berkman, because Washington is asking too much/can't decide if they want to part with (sound familiar?) Adam Dunn.

Further:
Berkman also would have to waive no-trade, but could be lower cost, probably lower production for teams that don't like Dunn's price.

Joel Sherman turns his attention to the Mets

After breaking the news that the Yankees and Mariners were close on Cliff Lee, Joel Sherman has set his sights on breaking news about the Mets.

Word is the Yankees getting Lee is devastating to the Mets, so they'll need to counter. So, Joel, what about Roy?

Mets now turn strongly to Lilly because Astros still want too much and will pay too little of Oswalt's contract.

Further reading from Sherman:
If the Lee trade gets completed, the Mets will be fully focused on a starter elsewhere. Yes, they like Roy Oswalt. But Mets officials continue to say that Houston is unwilling to pay anything but a small amount of the $15 million Oswalt is due this year, the $16 million next or the $2 million buyout on a $16 million option for 2012, but are still insisting on major prospects.

That is why the Mets remained focus on Ted Lilly of the Cubs. They see him as the best fallback position after an obvious ace such as Lee or Oswalt.

And now Heyman weighs in:
Mets scouted Oswalt, Haren, Lilly. (Though) Lilly is most likely, 1) hes not quite available yet, 2) his velocity is down.

Mets not all that interested in Roy

It could be a smokescreen, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post cites "multiple sources" that the Mets aren't real interested in dealing for Oswalt.

So it remains possible the Mets will have to lower their rotation scope. Multiple sources tell me that despite having been tied to Houston's Roy Oswalt and Cleveland's Fausto Carmona, the Mets have little interest in either righty. The Cubs' Ted Lilly, a lefty also in his walk year, is more to the Mets' liking from the not-Lee category.

But no addition of any ilk -- from Lee downward -- is on the doorstep.

Joel Sherman on Roy

The New York Post's Joel Sherman dedicates some KBs to Roy Oswalt, who has suddenly made the Astros interesting. I linked to the article in the Angels post, but it's worth pulling a couple of his notes:

A scout who covers the Astros regularly said Oswalt is clearly not happy. The scout pointed to body language that is not good and complaints about run support. In his last four starts, Oswalt is 0-4, though his ERA is just 2.83. “He has become the classic change of scenery guy,” the scout said. Andy Pettitte told me that playing for a non-contender for a while begins to wear at a competitive player such as Oswalt, and that his pal would be re-energized if he were in a pennant race.

A person with strong ties to the Astros told me that morale in the clubhouse is not very good and that there is even growing tension between the club’s two established stars, Oswalt and Lance Berkman.

It's an excellent column, and definitely worth a read. And unlike F*@#%ing Newsday, is free to read.

Joel Sherman had an idea, and then he didn't

The Mets need someone who can hit. The Astros need some payroll flexibility. Carlos Lee will take up $55.5 million in payroll through the end of his contract. See a connection?

Well, don't.

Wade put the kibosh on this theory by saying, “He is going to be our left fielder. He has a complete no-trade clause and he has made it very, very clear that he does not want to go anywhere.”

As if this option needed to be shot down any more, I ran it by a Mets official who said Lee has become such an atrocious left fielder that he would be too much of a nightmare defensively even with his power.

Seems to me that, in order to be "very, very clear," one would have to be asked, and asked, if they would waive said no-trade clause.