*I don't really want to lead off with this but Jim Crane says MLB "explicitly exonerated" him in their investigation, for the expressed purpose of leaving him out of any lawsuits that proceed against the team he owns in the event that the Astros, do in fact, continued to get sued.
*Evan Gattis said he had retired from baseball, and you should absolutely listen to the podcast where he announced it.
*So did 2014 2nd Round pick A.J. Reed. Chandler Rome:
The Astros did not summon Reed for a September call-up in 2017 or 2018. His weight and conditioning were often problems. Frustration grew visible. Houston designated him for assignment last July to clear a spot for pitcher Jose Urquidy on the 40-Man roster.
As a junior at Kentucky, Reed hit .462/.588/.962 (read that again) and had a 2.83 ERA in the same season. That's insane. That 2014 Draft was...hoo-boy. Picks through the 1st 10 Rounds:
Brady Aiken, Game 5 Hero and Current Toronto Great Derek Fisher, A.J. Reed, Current Mets Great J.D. Davis, Current Oakland Gret Daniel Mengden, Jacob Nix, Brock Dykxhoorn, Derick Velasquez, Bobby Boyd, Bryan Radziewski, Jay Gause.
It turns out that the prize of the Astros' 2014 draft was either Josh Big Flames James, the 1006th selection of the draft, who has put up a 0.8 fWAR, or Ramon Laureano, who has posted 5.9 fWAR...for Oakland, because the Astros traded him to Oakland for Brandon Bailey, who will likely be in Triple-A this year.
*Click this MLB.com link to see how Ryan Pressly has the nastiest 10" in baseball.
*Baseball-Reference is using OOTP21 to simulate the 2020 season. The Astros are 2-4.
*Minor-Leaguers will get $400/week until at least May 31, plus medical benefits. It's literally the least a $10 Billion industry can do.
*GQ: Inside the poisoning of a Russian double-agent.
*The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal: Victor Martinez's audacious dream is within sight.
*I have attended precisely one Leeds United game in person. It was this one, a Champions League game against Lazio, with my dad. You can see how I'd be hooked. There's a "What Happened To Leeds United" Astros County post coming in the next few days.
*I highly recommend you to watch Icarus, which is available on Netflix. It's one of the best documentaries I've ever seen.
*This is one of my favorite books of all-time.
*"Cocaine, Speed, and Gallons of Jack Daniel's." The last Rock n Roll Superstars were...Korn?
*Check out this three-part series from ProPublica called "Blood Will Tell." It will take you all afternoon. Then, when you're done with that, read this follow-up, which broke Tuesday.
*Learn something:
*A Musical Selection:
*Another Musical Selection:
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Friday, March 27, 2015
Brady Aiken's TJS
I remember where I was when Brady Aiken was drafted by the Astros. I was driving between two of my work sites listening to Robert Ford and Steve Sparks via Gameday at the exact moment the draft was happening. Aiken was my preferred pick prior to the draft, mostly because there had been a bit of negative publicity about Carlos Rodon and his reliance on his slider, and partly because I could see him in the Bigs in 2016 or 2017. Anyhow, after one joyous yell, one fist pump, and one near collision with a car driving the other way, I settled in to fantasise about Clayton Kershaw Mk II and what it would mean to the Astros for the rest of my travels.
Stuff, of course, started to go awry pretty much straight away. Aiken visited Houston, no deals were announced, then whispers about there being a problem emerged. The deadline for signing got closer, and the pundits seemed to say that perhaps there may be a problem, but that it would be highly unusual for something not to be worked out. The deadline passed, Aiken stayed unsigned, and the Astros took a bath in the media, losing Mac Marshall and Jacob Nix in the process.
I wrote a little bit about Aiken and his situation in the aftermath of the whole cluster-fudge. Re-reading the article, I think it holds up pretty well over time. The details around what was said were clearly important: Close and Aiken claimed that he had no symptoms and therefore wasn't sick, the Astros obviously saw something else that they didn't like, and the available information seemed to point to an unusual situation that perhaps related to Aiken's ability to have effective rehabilitative interventions in the future.
I thought - at the time - that a fair amount of time would need to lapse to tell who was "the winner" in this situation. (Disclaimer: there is no winner, but the issue really is whether the Astros actions were justified). Regardless, I didn't expect this to shake down so quickly. Aiken's recent start was - to the best of my tiny amount of knowledge - the first time that he threw in a game since the draft, and he lasted all of 13 or so pitches.
It would be tempting for an Astros fan to get all cock-a-hoop about Aiken's failed run-up to the 2015 draft, and declare the Astros "the winner" at this point. But, not so fast. This wasn't about currently being injured. The information that we had appeared to be about his ability to successfully rehabilitate, and with pitchers, elbows are always worth looking at.
Now Aiken has already had TJS, so he is clearly able to have the procedure. But there are a lot of recovery milestones between having the operation, and successfully throwing fastballs in the mid-90's and snapping breaking pitches for strikes. So the next 12 months will be hugely important for Aiken and his rehabilitation, and the year-or-two after that will go a long way toward proving Aiken's ability or inability to stay healthy.
Regardless of the intensity of a fan's affiliation with the Astros, I would hope that no one is wishing for Aiken to have come to the end of his career.
I also need to point out that the Astros simply cannot afford to whiff on these number-one picks. And in the middle of 2014, it certainly looked like they had screwed up the 2013 draft, with Appel throwing meatballs in Hi-A, and Kris Bryant mashing while he raced up the minor league ladder. With Appel and Bryant, things look a little more even now, but with Dominguez posting an OBP of .260 in mid-2014, Bryant would have looked pretty darn good in getting a cup of coffee.
I have two other brickbats to throw. This is the first time I have visited the Players' Tribune. I am not impressed, and won't be adding it to my compulsory reading list. It looks like a fancy looking forum for athletes to post whatever unmitigated rubbish they want, with no filtering or capacity for anyone to question or present any counter-arguments. Because athletes are always right, and journalists are horrible when they question what they say. This is why the Players' Tribune exists. Gah!
Of course, the second brickbat is directed toward the press. Lots of cheap copy that vilified the Astros around the time of the whole debacle was printed, painting them as a ruthless or incompetent organisation that blackmailed a poor, innocent high-schooler whose only crime was to have dreams of greatness. Bad, evil Astros!! Crushing dreams since Luhnow employed a phalanx of robot number-crunchers to rid baseball of the human side.
I plan to count the number of articles in the press that acknowledge their previous missteps, or thoughtfully revisit their articles from July and August of last year. I am confident that nothing like that will occur - because that is not how most of the press works. They need to fill columns and sell copy - and it doesn't matter who gets in the way, but up-playing the drama of the story often gets to sell more. Every story needs a villain, the Astros fitted the bill nicely, and the narrative about the Astros and their incompetency / ruthlessness / whatever gets to gain traction.
If you haven't already visited Constable's Rage-venture post, please do so now.
Stuff, of course, started to go awry pretty much straight away. Aiken visited Houston, no deals were announced, then whispers about there being a problem emerged. The deadline for signing got closer, and the pundits seemed to say that perhaps there may be a problem, but that it would be highly unusual for something not to be worked out. The deadline passed, Aiken stayed unsigned, and the Astros took a bath in the media, losing Mac Marshall and Jacob Nix in the process.
I wrote a little bit about Aiken and his situation in the aftermath of the whole cluster-fudge. Re-reading the article, I think it holds up pretty well over time. The details around what was said were clearly important: Close and Aiken claimed that he had no symptoms and therefore wasn't sick, the Astros obviously saw something else that they didn't like, and the available information seemed to point to an unusual situation that perhaps related to Aiken's ability to have effective rehabilitative interventions in the future.
I thought - at the time - that a fair amount of time would need to lapse to tell who was "the winner" in this situation. (Disclaimer: there is no winner, but the issue really is whether the Astros actions were justified). Regardless, I didn't expect this to shake down so quickly. Aiken's recent start was - to the best of my tiny amount of knowledge - the first time that he threw in a game since the draft, and he lasted all of 13 or so pitches.
It would be tempting for an Astros fan to get all cock-a-hoop about Aiken's failed run-up to the 2015 draft, and declare the Astros "the winner" at this point. But, not so fast. This wasn't about currently being injured. The information that we had appeared to be about his ability to successfully rehabilitate, and with pitchers, elbows are always worth looking at.
Now Aiken has already had TJS, so he is clearly able to have the procedure. But there are a lot of recovery milestones between having the operation, and successfully throwing fastballs in the mid-90's and snapping breaking pitches for strikes. So the next 12 months will be hugely important for Aiken and his rehabilitation, and the year-or-two after that will go a long way toward proving Aiken's ability or inability to stay healthy.
Regardless of the intensity of a fan's affiliation with the Astros, I would hope that no one is wishing for Aiken to have come to the end of his career.
I also need to point out that the Astros simply cannot afford to whiff on these number-one picks. And in the middle of 2014, it certainly looked like they had screwed up the 2013 draft, with Appel throwing meatballs in Hi-A, and Kris Bryant mashing while he raced up the minor league ladder. With Appel and Bryant, things look a little more even now, but with Dominguez posting an OBP of .260 in mid-2014, Bryant would have looked pretty darn good in getting a cup of coffee.
I have two other brickbats to throw. This is the first time I have visited the Players' Tribune. I am not impressed, and won't be adding it to my compulsory reading list. It looks like a fancy looking forum for athletes to post whatever unmitigated rubbish they want, with no filtering or capacity for anyone to question or present any counter-arguments. Because athletes are always right, and journalists are horrible when they question what they say. This is why the Players' Tribune exists. Gah!
Of course, the second brickbat is directed toward the press. Lots of cheap copy that vilified the Astros around the time of the whole debacle was printed, painting them as a ruthless or incompetent organisation that blackmailed a poor, innocent high-schooler whose only crime was to have dreams of greatness. Bad, evil Astros!! Crushing dreams since Luhnow employed a phalanx of robot number-crunchers to rid baseball of the human side.
I plan to count the number of articles in the press that acknowledge their previous missteps, or thoughtfully revisit their articles from July and August of last year. I am confident that nothing like that will occur - because that is not how most of the press works. They need to fill columns and sell copy - and it doesn't matter who gets in the way, but up-playing the drama of the story often gets to sell more. Every story needs a villain, the Astros fitted the bill nicely, and the narrative about the Astros and their incompetency / ruthlessness / whatever gets to gain traction.
If you haven't already visited Constable's Rage-venture post, please do so now.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
ZiPS Projections Over Time
In the last day or two (at the time of writing), FanGraphs released their ZiPS projections for the 2015 edition of the Houston Astros. Kudos to Baseball Think Factory and Dan Szymborski for their hard work on this system. There is a lot of information in the article - starting with the WAR values for the projected lineup, rotation and bullpen, then moving on to vast tables of counting stats, rates and averages, and projections for more advanced stats. The eagled-eyed reader would even notice a Dickie Thon comparison, which is bound to make the Constable come closer to exploding with excitement.
Projection systems aren't bulletproof. If they were, then we could sim the entire season, and not worry about this whole "playing" thing. But, in a slow period of the offseason, they do nicely as a substitution for the real thing. And we all know the offseason has only slowed down because the Padres have had their computer mainframe crash in their front office - once that is up and going again, watch out!! So we are forced to get our baseball fix with with various awesome historical fantasy leagues and prospect lists until the glorious day that pitchers and catchers actually report, indicating that the season is near.
Anyhow, in this quick look at the ZiPS projection, I thought it would be interesting to compare the 2015 projections with those of the last few years. I think everyone agrees that the the 2014 Astros made a huge step forward compared to the 2013, 2012 and 2011 editions: that assertion can be easily made by comparing the respective win-loss records - 70-92 versus 51-111, 55-107 and 56-106 (most recent first). But those that followed the Astros would have noticed the emergence of the basics of an offensive core, much improved starting pitching, and a bullpen that was - for extended periods - not entirely awful. And it is not like they were totally charmed in 2014: their major OBP threat missed a decent length of time twice, George Springer played approximately a half-season only, two key bullpen acquisitions played one month between them, and a host of other part-pieces sat with injuries when they were just starting to look like they were putting it together (looking at you, Alex Presley).
So, with all that positivity out of the way, allow me to present the 2015 ZiPS projection table (and don't ask me why the background is all dark. Something weird is going on):
The standout features here are pretty obvious. Keuchel and McHugh's steps forward are real, according to ZiPS. The offensive black holes at Left, Third and First look set to continue to be the weak points in 2015. The Astros are also projected to be pretty good up-the-middle - at least by WAR.
How did 2014 look?? Scroll down a bit and see...
Looking through the retrospectoscope, it is evident that ZiPS may have underestimated the Astros in 2014. ZiPS underestimated the contributions from Keuchel and Altuve by 3.9 and 3.1 WAR respectively, but equally overestimated the contributions from Matt Dominguez and the catching duo by 3.7 and 2.1 WAR respectively. Additionally, much of the extra added value for the Astros in 2014 was from people not listed on the depth chart above, particularly Collin McHugh and George Springer.
And the projections for 2013 (noting the yellowing with age):
Wow. Roster turnover!! Only Alex White, Matt Dominguez, Jose Altuve and the catchers are still with the organisation. Jose Veras may yet be back. Jed Lowrie has, of course, returned. That J.D. Martinez guy just didn't have what it took to play in the Majors.... oh.
And, presumably because pixilated ballpark diagrams were not available prior to 2013, the 2012 ZiPS projections are in tabulated form only. Jump to the link, if only to have a quick look where the "league average" lines happen to sit amongst the pitchers' projections. Spoiler alert!! Close to the top for the staters (only Bud Norris and Wandy Rodriguez were projected to be above average) and at the top for the 'pen. The whole 'pen was projected to be below average! Yikes.
So even ZiPS seems to agree that the Astros have improved. Adding up the WAR numbers in the various pictorial representations confirms this. In 2013, the Astros were projected to have 16 WAR accounted for via the projections. In 2014, the Astros were again projected for 16 WAR. In 2015, the Astros account for a much more palatable 26 WAR. Not world-beating, but certainly an improvement.
For comparison, the 2015 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are projected for 40 WAR. Mike Trout accounts for 10 of those - hope he doesn't get injured! Their rotation accounts for 12 of those - which I have difficulty seeing. But that is what the ZiPS system thinks will happen. And the Angels had the best record in the AL in 2014, so they are the benchmark for the Astros at the moment.
The final points that I think is relevant here is that the Astros would not be an easy team to project. Because of their youth, they have less established track records, and therefore their error-bars could be wider than a team of established major-leaguers. And also, just as Springer and McHugh provided a boost to the Astros in 2014 (despite being left off the projected 2014 depth-chart), many of the Astros' impact prospects will open the season close to the top levels of the system. There is considerable potential for the Astros to get a 4 WAR season from someone not listed - perhaps even moreso than in 2014.
This is probably way too many words to dedicate to a seasonal projection, but as I mentioned earlier, it is all we have until pitchers and catchers report. Which is February 20 - or 42 days away. But the improvement in the Astros has been considerable, and the ZiPS projections only add to the evidence that Astros have bottomed out and are on the improve.
Projection systems aren't bulletproof. If they were, then we could sim the entire season, and not worry about this whole "playing" thing. But, in a slow period of the offseason, they do nicely as a substitution for the real thing. And we all know the offseason has only slowed down because the Padres have had their computer mainframe crash in their front office - once that is up and going again, watch out!! So we are forced to get our baseball fix with with various awesome historical fantasy leagues and prospect lists until the glorious day that pitchers and catchers actually report, indicating that the season is near.
Anyhow, in this quick look at the ZiPS projection, I thought it would be interesting to compare the 2015 projections with those of the last few years. I think everyone agrees that the the 2014 Astros made a huge step forward compared to the 2013, 2012 and 2011 editions: that assertion can be easily made by comparing the respective win-loss records - 70-92 versus 51-111, 55-107 and 56-106 (most recent first). But those that followed the Astros would have noticed the emergence of the basics of an offensive core, much improved starting pitching, and a bullpen that was - for extended periods - not entirely awful. And it is not like they were totally charmed in 2014: their major OBP threat missed a decent length of time twice, George Springer played approximately a half-season only, two key bullpen acquisitions played one month between them, and a host of other part-pieces sat with injuries when they were just starting to look like they were putting it together (looking at you, Alex Presley).
So, with all that positivity out of the way, allow me to present the 2015 ZiPS projection table (and don't ask me why the background is all dark. Something weird is going on):
The standout features here are pretty obvious. Keuchel and McHugh's steps forward are real, according to ZiPS. The offensive black holes at Left, Third and First look set to continue to be the weak points in 2015. The Astros are also projected to be pretty good up-the-middle - at least by WAR.
How did 2014 look?? Scroll down a bit and see...
Looking through the retrospectoscope, it is evident that ZiPS may have underestimated the Astros in 2014. ZiPS underestimated the contributions from Keuchel and Altuve by 3.9 and 3.1 WAR respectively, but equally overestimated the contributions from Matt Dominguez and the catching duo by 3.7 and 2.1 WAR respectively. Additionally, much of the extra added value for the Astros in 2014 was from people not listed on the depth chart above, particularly Collin McHugh and George Springer.
And the projections for 2013 (noting the yellowing with age):
Wow. Roster turnover!! Only Alex White, Matt Dominguez, Jose Altuve and the catchers are still with the organisation. Jose Veras may yet be back. Jed Lowrie has, of course, returned. That J.D. Martinez guy just didn't have what it took to play in the Majors.... oh.
And, presumably because pixilated ballpark diagrams were not available prior to 2013, the 2012 ZiPS projections are in tabulated form only. Jump to the link, if only to have a quick look where the "league average" lines happen to sit amongst the pitchers' projections. Spoiler alert!! Close to the top for the staters (only Bud Norris and Wandy Rodriguez were projected to be above average) and at the top for the 'pen. The whole 'pen was projected to be below average! Yikes.
So even ZiPS seems to agree that the Astros have improved. Adding up the WAR numbers in the various pictorial representations confirms this. In 2013, the Astros were projected to have 16 WAR accounted for via the projections. In 2014, the Astros were again projected for 16 WAR. In 2015, the Astros account for a much more palatable 26 WAR. Not world-beating, but certainly an improvement.
For comparison, the 2015 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are projected for 40 WAR. Mike Trout accounts for 10 of those - hope he doesn't get injured! Their rotation accounts for 12 of those - which I have difficulty seeing. But that is what the ZiPS system thinks will happen. And the Angels had the best record in the AL in 2014, so they are the benchmark for the Astros at the moment.
The final points that I think is relevant here is that the Astros would not be an easy team to project. Because of their youth, they have less established track records, and therefore their error-bars could be wider than a team of established major-leaguers. And also, just as Springer and McHugh provided a boost to the Astros in 2014 (despite being left off the projected 2014 depth-chart), many of the Astros' impact prospects will open the season close to the top levels of the system. There is considerable potential for the Astros to get a 4 WAR season from someone not listed - perhaps even moreso than in 2014.
This is probably way too many words to dedicate to a seasonal projection, but as I mentioned earlier, it is all we have until pitchers and catchers report. Which is February 20 - or 42 days away. But the improvement in the Astros has been considerable, and the ZiPS projections only add to the evidence that Astros have bottomed out and are on the improve.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Astros and Jacob Nix reach settlement
The Astros and unsigned 2014 5th Round pick Jacob Nix have agreed to a settlement of an undisclosed amount, according to multiple media reports.
To recap just what the hell this is about:
The Astros drafted Brady Aiken with the #1 overall pick, and then drafted friend, fellow UCLA commit, and fellow Casey Close client Nix with their 5th Round selection. The Astros and Nix had agreed to a $1.5m bonus contingent on Aiken's $6m signing. Then the Astros "found" Aiken had a teeny-tiny UCL and tried to renegotiate (or, drop the bottom out of) Aiken's bonus. Aiken and Close told the Astros, whose bedsheet and comforter were decidedly soaked with fecal matter, to piss off. When the Astros realized they'd be on the hook for the full pricetag of the 1-1 pick, they couldn't sign Nix. So, through no fault of his own, Nix lost out on becoming a teenage millionaire. And the world was understandably pissed.
Now, both Aiken's and Nix's college eligibility is up to the NCAA (which is akin to having your fate decided by a drunk with a combover at the roulette table), because their eligibility has been compromised by having Close obviously represent them.
The only bright side? It seems as though the Astros won't have to forfeit their 1-2 and 1-5 pick in 2015. Why would they have to do that? Because if they were on the hook for Nix's $1.5m deal, that would put them over their bonus pool by such a percentage that the penalty is to forfeit the top two picks in the following draft. So it seems as though by making this agreement, the Astros aren't going to lose the "benefit" of not signing Aiken, after all.
What a freaking train wreck that was.
To recap just what the hell this is about:
The Astros drafted Brady Aiken with the #1 overall pick, and then drafted friend, fellow UCLA commit, and fellow Casey Close client Nix with their 5th Round selection. The Astros and Nix had agreed to a $1.5m bonus contingent on Aiken's $6m signing. Then the Astros "found" Aiken had a teeny-tiny UCL and tried to renegotiate (or, drop the bottom out of) Aiken's bonus. Aiken and Close told the Astros, whose bedsheet and comforter were decidedly soaked with fecal matter, to piss off. When the Astros realized they'd be on the hook for the full pricetag of the 1-1 pick, they couldn't sign Nix. So, through no fault of his own, Nix lost out on becoming a teenage millionaire. And the world was understandably pissed.
Now, both Aiken's and Nix's college eligibility is up to the NCAA (which is akin to having your fate decided by a drunk with a combover at the roulette table), because their eligibility has been compromised by having Close obviously represent them.
The only bright side? It seems as though the Astros won't have to forfeit their 1-2 and 1-5 pick in 2015. Why would they have to do that? Because if they were on the hook for Nix's $1.5m deal, that would put them over their bonus pool by such a percentage that the penalty is to forfeit the top two picks in the following draft. So it seems as though by making this agreement, the Astros aren't going to lose the "benefit" of not signing Aiken, after all.
What a freaking train wreck that was.
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
For those that think the 2014 Astros have not improved.
A few days ago (Game 123), the Astros reached the heady plateau of 51 wins, which would not be a significant number if the Astros hadn't won 51 games last year. The Astros equalled that win total with 123 games completed, and therefore had 39 games - or very close to a quarter of the season - still to play. The 2013 win total was eventually surpassed in game 125, with 37 more games still to play. Excellent!
Around the same time, I was trawling through the Baseball Prospectus website when I saw this hit list. The BP hit list is my favourite of all the power-ranking / in-season-team-listing list, partly because of the presence of a greater sabermatic presence and formula used to rank the teams, and partly because of the humorous lines posted right below.
Regardless, the thing that caught my eye was the presence of three AL West teams in the top three slots - the A's, the Angels and the Mariners. Some significant down-scrolling is required to find the Astros (#26) and the Rangers (who would be #31 if the list went that low), so the whole AL West isn't great, but three quarters of the Astros' intra-division opposition is considered to be pretty darn good, and fighting for playoff slots.
I also recalled writing around a month ago - hidden inside another article - about the incredibly odd distribution of the runs-for and run-against equation of all the teams inside the AL West. As of end-of-play on 18 August the AL West looks like this in terms of run differential per team:
Around the same time, I was trawling through the Baseball Prospectus website when I saw this hit list. The BP hit list is my favourite of all the power-ranking / in-season-team-listing list, partly because of the presence of a greater sabermatic presence and formula used to rank the teams, and partly because of the humorous lines posted right below.
Regardless, the thing that caught my eye was the presence of three AL West teams in the top three slots - the A's, the Angels and the Mariners. Some significant down-scrolling is required to find the Astros (#26) and the Rangers (who would be #31 if the list went that low), so the whole AL West isn't great, but three quarters of the Astros' intra-division opposition is considered to be pretty darn good, and fighting for playoff slots.
I also recalled writing around a month ago - hidden inside another article - about the incredibly odd distribution of the runs-for and run-against equation of all the teams inside the AL West. As of end-of-play on 18 August the AL West looks like this in terms of run differential per team:
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: +89
- Oakland A's: +161
- Seattle Mariners: +96
- Houston Astros: -91
- Texas Rangers: -135
Now this places the AL West at a total, division-wide run differential of +120. The current run differentials of all the divisions in 2014 (in order, as at 18 August) look like this:
- AL West: +120
- NL Central: +8
- AL East: -3
- NL East: -8
- AL Central: -26
- NL West: -91
But what I thought was interesting a direct comparison to the run differential from last year inside the AL West. As at August 18 2013, the AL West standings looked like:
- Texas Rangers: +58
- Oakland A's: +69
- Seattle Mariners: -86
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: -36
- Houston Astros: -174
... for a total division wide run differential of -172. The baseball-wide division standings looked like (at 18 August 2013):
- NL Central: +179
- AL East: +159
- AL Central: +68
- NL West: -107
- NL East: -127
- AL West: -172
Last year, the Astros lagged all of baseball with -174 runs scored - the worst mark by exactly 70 runs. This was also inside the worst division in baseball by runs scored versus runs against. This year, they are 83 runs better, in the hardest division, which has arguably the top three teams in baseball.
Now the 2014 season schedule is somewhat unbalanced, and the Astros have a total of 24 games against AL West opponents out of their remaining 37 games (in 2013, they had 21 intra-division games to play on August 18). Seventeen of these 24 games are against what some may argue as the top three teams in baseball, with the most difficult stretch in the 18 games between 25 August and 14 September - all of which are against AL West opponents, and only four of those being against the Rangers.
This stretch will go a long way to determining what kind of season the Astros are recorded as having. Go .500 through that 24 game period, and a legitimate shot at 70+ wins is the result. Win two or three of those games, and another weak finish will consign the season to another lost one.
I guess the other point to make is that the Astros have not been a healthy team this year. We don't quite get to grab all the sympathy from the Texas Rangers (who have ten players on the 60-day DL), but I read somewhere recently that the Astros have lost the second-most number of days to the DL of all the teams in the American League. Some of these are important bullpen cogs (Jesse Crain, Matt Albers), some of these are/were key offensive performers (Dexter Fowler, George Springer) and some of these are/were spare parts (Jose Cisnero, Alex Presley). Regardless, this has not been a great year for injuries in a young team, and potentially this could have cost the Astros a couple of games in the wins column as well.
In summary, I would make the argument that the 2014 Houston Astros are much better than the 2013 addition, and I don't think I will get much disagreement. If anything, the win-loss column has the capacity to minimise the extent of the improvement given the improved competition inside the tougher division. Injuries may have acted to obscure the extent of the improvement as well.
However, before any Astros fans get all excited, please check out the five right-most columns of the BP Hit List table. They are the columns that outline the calculated playoff odds. Until the Astros manage to have some non-zero numbers in those columns, they really haven't done anything, despite the extent of any improvement.
Thursday, April 3, 2014
Hope: Revived in a Measly Two Games
I'm often accused of being too optimistic about the Astros. In the past few years as play has been depressing, I tried to look for the bright spots. The things I could focus on until the play on the field improved. Something, anything that could feed my fan fire and tide me over until the talent from the minors started creeping into the majors. I consoled my wounded heart with the draft and the plan the front office had going, with the minor league records and the shiny new uniforms.
This year as Spring Training approached, friends and family began asking my opinion on how the Astros would fair this season, I decided that sunshine, lollipops and rainbows had left me a pissed off fan for 3 seasons, so it was time to expect nothing.
I told everyone that would listen, "Yes, the Astros will suck again this year. It will be painful to watch and you'll want to crawl into a warm bed and not come out until 2015." I didn't even try to sell them on the improved concessions and fan experience. I didn't give bonus points for the change in the Community Partners signs - all things I would have done in the past. I think I even convinced myself that it was true. I knew that the front office had made some smart off-season moves. I paid attention from the cheap seats watching and waiting, but decided that expecting the worst would be the healthiest thing for me.
I knew that there was talent that would be walking onto the field on Tuesday, but felt certain that at the VERY best the Astros would take one game from the Yankees. We all know now that I was dead wrong.
The Astros...the Astros that I promised would be stinkin' it up again this year...have taken TWO games from the Yankees. And you know what that means? It means that hope is creeping back into my head and heart.
Damn you, Astros.
You better live up to it now. I'm not sure I can take another heartbreaking season. So, now that you've shown us that you are capable of nearly-perfect baseball, I'm going to expect it. I know you'll still lose more than you'll win. You're not ready for a .500 or better season yet, but that 100 loss thing? I think it's safe to say that you've shown us you've got the goods to put that in the rear view mirror. Time to deliver...the resurrecting hope in my little heart is counting on it.
This year as Spring Training approached, friends and family began asking my opinion on how the Astros would fair this season, I decided that sunshine, lollipops and rainbows had left me a pissed off fan for 3 seasons, so it was time to expect nothing.
I told everyone that would listen, "Yes, the Astros will suck again this year. It will be painful to watch and you'll want to crawl into a warm bed and not come out until 2015." I didn't even try to sell them on the improved concessions and fan experience. I didn't give bonus points for the change in the Community Partners signs - all things I would have done in the past. I think I even convinced myself that it was true. I knew that the front office had made some smart off-season moves. I paid attention from the cheap seats watching and waiting, but decided that expecting the worst would be the healthiest thing for me.
I knew that there was talent that would be walking onto the field on Tuesday, but felt certain that at the VERY best the Astros would take one game from the Yankees. We all know now that I was dead wrong.
The Astros...the Astros that I promised would be stinkin' it up again this year...have taken TWO games from the Yankees. And you know what that means? It means that hope is creeping back into my head and heart.
Damn you, Astros.
You better live up to it now. I'm not sure I can take another heartbreaking season. So, now that you've shown us that you are capable of nearly-perfect baseball, I'm going to expect it. I know you'll still lose more than you'll win. You're not ready for a .500 or better season yet, but that 100 loss thing? I think it's safe to say that you've shown us you've got the goods to put that in the rear view mirror. Time to deliver...the resurrecting hope in my little heart is counting on it.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Astros 30th in payroll
Last year everybody had a good time piling on the Astros for their (lack of) payroll but luckily everyone has moved past it and just focuses on how awesome the Astros are. Deadspin posted a link to an Associated Press story summing up all 30 teams' payroll, with an option to see every single player's salary for 2014.
Of course, the Astros are 30th in payroll, but have narrowed the gap between them and 29th place. With a projected payroll of $44,544,174, the Astros are about $3m shy of the Marlins, but around $33m short of the 28th place Rays, and $191m short - that's right - of the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers $235m-ish payroll is just under what the Pirates, Rays, Marlins, and Astros will spend on payroll combined.
Of course, the Astros are 30th in payroll, but have narrowed the gap between them and 29th place. With a projected payroll of $44,544,174, the Astros are about $3m shy of the Marlins, but around $33m short of the 28th place Rays, and $191m short - that's right - of the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers $235m-ish payroll is just under what the Pirates, Rays, Marlins, and Astros will spend on payroll combined.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Astros come in 2nd in most underrated
These player polls, I just don't know about them. They're fun to read, but don't mean anything. Still, it's interesting to note that in ESPN The Magazine's player poll for the MLB Preview issue, the Astros managed to come in 2nd in "Most Underrated Team," behind the A's (though, how you underrate a team that won 96 games, won the AL West, and lost in five games to the Tigers is beyond me).
Unnamed NL Veteran:
The Astros are going to be bad again, but I was impressed by what I saw in spring training. They're bad, but they're not 100-loss bad. I think they will surprise some people. They're going in the right direction.
What does it mean? Nothing. But when you can throw out some Anonymous NL Veteran love, you gotta do it.
Unnamed NL Veteran:
The Astros are going to be bad again, but I was impressed by what I saw in spring training. They're bad, but they're not 100-loss bad. I think they will surprise some people. They're going in the right direction.
What does it mean? Nothing. But when you can throw out some Anonymous NL Veteran love, you gotta do it.
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
PECOTA projects Astros 2014 record
Baseball Prospectus posted PECOTA's 2014 standings projection this morning. Here's how the AL West projects:
Oakland: 88-74
Anaheim: 87-75
Arlington: 85-77
Seattle: 82-80
Houston: 65-97
It's also worth noting that, once again, that would be good enough for the 1-1 pick in 2015. It also would be a 14-game improvement over 2013. There are some other fun stats within, as well. Let's look at them:
Runs Scored, 2013: 610
Runs Scored, Proj.: 661
Runs Against, 2013: 848
Runs Against, Proj.: 819
Slash Line, 2013: .240/.299/.375
Slash Line, Proj.: .245/.315/.388
So the offense is projected to be better, the defense is projected to be better, 100 losses are projected to be avoided. And another 1-1. Thoughts?
Oakland: 88-74
Anaheim: 87-75
Arlington: 85-77
Seattle: 82-80
Houston: 65-97
It's also worth noting that, once again, that would be good enough for the 1-1 pick in 2015. It also would be a 14-game improvement over 2013. There are some other fun stats within, as well. Let's look at them:
Runs Scored, 2013: 610
Runs Scored, Proj.: 661
Runs Against, 2013: 848
Runs Against, Proj.: 819
Slash Line, 2013: .240/.299/.375
Slash Line, Proj.: .245/.315/.388
So the offense is projected to be better, the defense is projected to be better, 100 losses are projected to be avoided. And another 1-1. Thoughts?
Monday, November 4, 2013
Qualifying Offers update
So there's this new-ish wrinkle in the CBA for the offseason. It actually started last season, but it's worth talking about now as the Astros are actually in the market for free agents that other teams might actually want.
If a team offers a qualifying offer to a free agent, the free agent can accept the offer and automatically agree to a 1yr/$14.1m deal. If they don't accept said offer, they hit the market but the former team receives a draft pick.
In the Astros' case, if they sign a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer they do not lose the 1-1 pick. They do, however, lose the 1-40 pick - Round A Competitive Balance pick they acquired from Baltimore in the Bud Norris trade (along with L.J. Hoes and Josh Hader).
So the question is if the Astros are willing to give up that pick, or did they push for that Competitive Balance pick from Baltimore in order to have the flexibility to give it up by signing a higher-profile free agent? If you ask this question, you should know full well that Jeff Luhnow and the Decision Sciences department have already killed you.
Who are the notable free agents who have been offered a Qualifying Offer?
Ubaldo Jimenez, as well as (via MLBTR): Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, Ervin Santana.
Obviously the Astros aren't in the market for all of them, but maybe this changes your opinion of signing someone like Nelson Cruz or Shin-Soo Choo.
If a team offers a qualifying offer to a free agent, the free agent can accept the offer and automatically agree to a 1yr/$14.1m deal. If they don't accept said offer, they hit the market but the former team receives a draft pick.
In the Astros' case, if they sign a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer they do not lose the 1-1 pick. They do, however, lose the 1-40 pick - Round A Competitive Balance pick they acquired from Baltimore in the Bud Norris trade (along with L.J. Hoes and Josh Hader).
So the question is if the Astros are willing to give up that pick, or did they push for that Competitive Balance pick from Baltimore in order to have the flexibility to give it up by signing a higher-profile free agent? If you ask this question, you should know full well that Jeff Luhnow and the Decision Sciences department have already killed you.
Who are the notable free agents who have been offered a Qualifying Offer?
Ubaldo Jimenez, as well as (via MLBTR): Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, Ervin Santana.
Obviously the Astros aren't in the market for all of them, but maybe this changes your opinion of signing someone like Nelson Cruz or Shin-Soo Choo.
Friday, November 1, 2013
Wandy Rodriguez just cost the Astros $5.5m
Ed Wade signed Wandy Rodriguez to a strange contract back in January 2011. Wandy received a three-year deal worth $34m from 2011-13 ($7m in 2011, $10m in 2012, $13m in 2013) pushed higher by a signing bonus and buyout for 2014. However, there was a clause in the contract that gave Wandy a $13m player option for 2014 if he was traded at any point during the contract which, of course, he was.
So today Wandy exercised that 2014 option, and under the terms of the trade with Pittsburgh, the Astros will be picking up $5.5m of the $13m owed Wandy in 2014.
So today Wandy exercised that 2014 option, and under the terms of the trade with Pittsburgh, the Astros will be picking up $5.5m of the $13m owed Wandy in 2014.
Friday, October 11, 2013
Spending Crane's Money
With the news this week that the Astros could be increasing payroll to $50-60m, it would seem that the Astros would be spending around $40m to reach the upper levels of that number. So, because nobody asked me yet, here's how I would spend $60m in 2014 constructing a 25-Man Roster... (on free agents - we're not going through the pointless exercise of trying to figure out trade scenarios)
We're doing this keeping in mind what Crane said about Luhnow's process:
“We’re not going to make a move unless it fits into the plan, and we’re not going to rush the plan. [Luhnow] a very systematic formula and we do have some good players coming up. You add three or four key positions and bring in a couple of guys that are ready, this team is pretty competitive pretty quickly with the starting pitching we’ve got. We’re deep in pitching.
Catcher
Jason Castro: $2.2m
Max Stassi: $500,000
Castro is eligible for arbitration for the first time this season and, after a breakout year in 2013, is poised for a pretty significant increase over his 2013 salary of $496,600. MLB Trade Rumors suggests a $2.2m arbitration figure for Castro, but the Astros could sign him to a longer-term deal in the three-year/$8-9m range. Given Castro's late-season knee/cyst issue, I could see the Astros waiting another year to sign him to that type of deal.
It looks as though the Astros are ready to get Stassi more playing time, or at least they were before Tanner Scheppers couldn't figure out how to not hit him in the face with the ball. Stassi will be making around league-minimum.
Infield
Jose Altuve: $1.25m
Chris Carter: $500,000
Matt Dominguez: $500,000
Jonathan Villar: $500,000
Brett Wallace : $500,000
The infield seems pretty much set. In a perfect world, Chris Carter will cut his strikeouts by, say 30-40% and Brett Wallace will finally figure it out. But I just don't know. If the Astros are looking to free agency for a first baseman, here's your list of available free agents:
Jose Dariel Abreu, Jeff Baker, Corey Hart, Mike Napoli, Paul Konerko, Casey Kotchman, Adam Lind, James Loney, Casey McGehee, Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis.
Abreu is a 26-year old Cuban player who was recently declared a free agent by MLB. The Giants and Red Sox have shown a lot of interest in Abreu, and word is that his deal could eclipse Yasiel Puig's 7yr/$42m deal. If the Astros splurge like that on Abreu, they'd be effectively conceding that Jon Singleton isn't - and won't ever be - ready for the Majors. Are you comfortable betting that Singleton is the guy who had a .687 OPS in 73 games at OKC in 2013 - a level at which he had not yet experienced - and not the guy with an .893 OPS for Corpus in 2012? I don't see Abreu happening.
Aside from Jose Abreu, do any of those guys blow your skirt up? Missouri City native and Elkins graduate James Loney turned in a .778 OPS for the Rays on a sweetheart $2m deal with Tampa Bay. He was hitting .331/.392/.531 heading into June, and hit .283/.328/.382 from June 1 through the end of the regular season. You can bet he'll want a raise and a longer-term deal, and the Rays are interested in re-signing him, anyway.
Unless Singleton hits .800 in Spring Training, I think the Astros will let him spend some more time at Oklahoma City, even if 2013 was lost thanks to that 50-game suspension. So the Astros could be looking for a guy who is on the rebound from a lost 2013 and would sign a one-year deal to rebuild his value. Is that Casey Kotchman? He missed almost all of 2013 to injury, and while he posted a .229/.280/.333 line in 142 games for the Indians in 2012, he also did it with an abnormally low .233 BABIP (his career BABIP is .271). The Astros could bet on that regressing back to a more normal number, but would that provide much more value over Carter or Wallace? Because I don't see Carter playing in the outfield much in 2014.
Given that the Astros are bringing in a new coach with infield experience to help out Altuve and Villar, they're staying. Dominguez showed enough pop and defense to stay at Third for 2014.
Outfield
Brandon Barnes: $500,000
Robbie Grossman: $500,000
L.J. Hoes: $500,000
George Springer: $500,000
The Astros do need another outfielder, and this is where it gets interesting. Provided George Springer opens 2014 in the outfield at Minute Maid, this, combined with a free agent signing, could push Barnes and/or Grossman to a 4th-outfielder role. Keep in mind Domingo Santana is 20 years old and just put up 25 homers and an .842 OPS at Corpus in 2013. Springer looks like he's going to be The Man for the next 100 years, so he's locked in. Santana may be ready in 2015, and would just be in his Age 22 season.
But that doesn't help the Astros now, does it? Might the Astros look at Shin-Soo Choo, the 31-year old outfielder represented by Scott Boras...who thinks $100m is "low" for Choo. Boras also had to settle on 4yrs/$48m for Michael Bourn, so Boras is likely doing what Boras does. But, given what you know about the organization and the front office so far, would you expect them to throw $50m at a 31-year old free agent outfielder? And we need to consider what the Astros are right now: a franchise that has been the worst team in baseball for the last three seasons. Will a player sign with Houston if he has a comparable offer somewhere else? If a player has a $10m offer from, say, the Giants, would the Astros have to throw $15m at him to get him to sign in Houston?
What the Astros need is a player who can hit right-handed pitching. The Astros, as a team, hit .235/.295/.374 against RHPs. That's...basically a better-hitting, less-patient Carlos Pena. As Trostel pointed out to me this morning, Robbie Grossman hit - and this is a small sample size alert - .322/.351/.466 in 157 second-half plate appearances, albeit with a .413 BABIP. In the first half, he hit .198/.310/.243 with a .275 BABIP. So he's likely somewhere in the middle of those two halves, but does have some patience and has a decent glove.
Grady Sizemore? Reclamation-project type, but hasn't played a game since 2011. Carlos Beltran? He'll be 37 next season and would likely want a shot at a ring, not to play for a team whose fanbase would go streaking down Crawford if the Astros won 80 games in 2014. Ken Rosenthal said yesterday that the Mariners were getting ready to give Ellsbury 6yrs/$126m. Not Jeff Francoeur. Anybody but Jeff Francoeur. So let's look at some actual possibilities...
Curtis Granderson
Granderson will be 33 on Opening Day 2014, and is coming off a 6yr/$43.25m contract. He only played in 61 games due to getting hit by pitches early in the season. Problem is, the White Sox - who are also looking for offensive help - are expected to try to lure the Chicago native back home. Yankees blog It's About The Money (linked in the previous sentence) said that $15m/year is a reasonable estimate for Granderson's next deal, with the length of the contract in question. But he's hitting .274/.357/.519 in his career against RHP. The question is whether the Astros would give him 3yrs/$54m, and if he'd take it. No, and no. Probably. Who really knows?
Chris Young
Likely more in the Astros' price range, and he's a Bellaire guy, so there's a connection to Houston, if that ever actually means anything. Young just turned 30 and is coming off a 5yr/$28m deal. But he was pretty awful in 107 games with Oakland this season - .200/.280/.379. That's J.D. Martinez with a lower batting average. He can't hit righties, either - his RHP splits were almost 100 points lower (.614 OPS) than his LHP splits (.712 OPS). BUT (and I know we're dealing with sample size) he hit .333/.412/.733 at Minute Maid Park. Three of his 12 homers came at Minute Maid, and while the A's probably aren't interested in bringing him back, he just might fit what the Astros are looking for. Add to that his .237 BABIP in 2013 was almost 40 points lower than his career average. Young has a .725 OPS from 2011-13. Would a 1yr/$5m deal get it done (given that he was worth $2.3m in 2013)? Or would the Astros go crazy and offer 3yrs/$12m and hope that he reverts back to his 2010 form?
Coco Crisp
Crisp will be in his Age 34 season in 2014, and he's not technically a free agent yet - the A's have a team option on 2014 where they can either pay him $7.5m or buy him out for $1m. He killed the Astros this season and doesn't strike out much - 65 times in 584 plate appearances. That's, like, a month's worth of strikeouts for Chris Carter. He provides a lefty option, and hit righties to the tune of .290/.362/.505. Away from Whatever Oakland Calls Their Stadium, he hit .288/.353/.488. And in 15 games against Houston, he hit .339/.471/.768 - though that may say more about Houston's pitching than it does Coco Crisp. In nine games at Minute Maid, he hit .395/.511/.868. Here's where it gets tricky: Crisp's value (as assigned by FanGraphs) over the past two years averaged about $15m. Now, given that his 2014 contract would call for $7.5m, the Astros may have to offer 3yrs/$24-27m. Of course, it doesn't matter if the A's don't buy him out.
Corey Hart
Another injury reclamation project. Hart, who will be 32 on Opening Day 2014, missed all of 2013 due to multiple knee surgeries. Hart made $10m to not play in 2013, and has said that he wants to stay in Milwaukee and would be willing to provide a discount to make that happen. As of September 19, there had not been any discussions about a new deal with Milwaukee, so there's the possibility they'll move on from Hart. From 2010-12, Hart hit .279/.343/.514, and has a career line vs righties of .267/.320/.478 (with an .896 OPS against LHP). In 2012, Hart hit .265/.326/.499 against RHP, and had an OPS of .827, .814, and .825 from 2010-2012 against righties. Given his desire to stay in Milwaukee, it's the Brewers' play to move on from Hart. If the Astros can swoop in and get Hart at 3yrs/$25m - a pay cut from his 2013 salary, but not a significant one - would you make that commitment to Hart's knee surgeries?
Nelson Cruz
Oooh this would probably piss off some Rangers fans, which is worth at least $1m. Cruz, who will be 34 in July 2014, of course missed 50 games in the middle of the season thanks to his Biogenesis suspension. He was hitting .269/.330/.511 before the suspension hit and made $10.5m in 2013. He hit RHP to the tune of .262/.316/.521, striking out 89 times in 339 PAs. Now he's a free agent, and the Biogenesis suspension will play a factor in his next contract. It's hard to say how much, but you can bet he's not going to get an annual average value over $10m...for now. He brought $7.5m in value to the Rangers, would 3yrs/$25m get the job done if the Rangers don't pull the trigger on Cruz?
David DeJesus
DeJesus is another on this list who has a team option for 2014, so the Rays can either exercise his option for $6.5m or buy him out for $1.5m, and would be one of a signing that would by default require him to sit against LHP. He's a lefty, which would be nice for the lineup, and hit well in the lead-off spot (which would allow Porter to bat Altuve 2nd). Against RHP, he hit .266/.345/.427 in 379 PAs with 65K:37BB. Trying to hit lefties would be a mistake, since he was 9x56, with a .161/.217/.250 line. DeJesus hasn't posted an OPS over .800 since 2010, in his final year with the Royals, and so I doubt the Rays pull the trigger on that 2014 option. He'll be in his Age 34 season, so maybe 2yr/$8m would get it done?
Starting Pitching
Jarred Cosart ($500,000)
Brett Oberholtzer ($500,000)
Brad Peacock ($500,000)
Jordan Lyles ($500,000)
The Astros desperately need another starting pitcher...for now. Yes, there is a lot of pitching coming up through the system: notably Asher Wojciechowski and Mike Foltynewicz, but the Astros do seem to want a veteran presence on the staff and I doubt that Jordan Lyles fits the mold, even if he is the longest-tenured starting pitcher on the team. This is where they need to commit some dollars. There are A LOT of free agent pitchers (check the entire list) on the market, but some names immediately stand out as possibilities for players looking to rebuild some value, or that might be interested in a short-term deal...
Masahiro Tanaka
No, the Astros have not yet been linked to the 24-year old Japanese pitcher expected to get posted to join Major League Baseball this winter. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Diamondbacks have, though. As have the Dodgers and Angels. In seven seasons in the JPPL, Tanaka is 95-35 (24-0 this season) with a 2.32 ERA. The LA Times suggested that $25m would win a bid for Tanaka, but then a team would have to sign him to a contract. Think Yu Darvish's 6yr/$56m deal. Is that pricy? Yep. But if the Astros want to spend a lot of money, make a splash, and land the guy MLBTR calls the Top Free Agent pitcher in baseball, Tanaka would do it. In conclusion: Please please please pretty please sign Masahiro Tanaka.
Scott Kazmir
Cy-Falls grad Scott Kazmir will be 30 in January and enjoyed a career resurgence in 2013. Having only thrown 151.2IP since 2010 and missing all of 2012, Kazmir went 10-9 for the Indians with a 4.04 ERA/1.32 WHIP, and all of his peripheral numbers were better than hit career average. Even better, Kazmir's FIP was 3.51 and his xFIP was 3.36, all with a .324 BABIP. Kazmit hadn't averaged over 92mph on his fastball since 2007, watching his velocity fall to 91.7 in 2008, then 91.1, 90.5, and 86.5 in 2011 with the Angels. In 2013, his fastball averaged 92.5mph. The Pitch Values on that fastball aren't as kind, though PITCHf/x says his two-seamer was well above average, as was his changeup. Given his left-handed nature (of which I approve), he would be a marked upgrade from Erik Bedard in the rotation. FanGraphs notched his value at $12.7m in 2013, but given the injury history, would you give Kazmir 3yrs/$25m?
Phil Hughes
Ahh, Phil Hughes whom I routinely mistook for Phil Humber (before this year, anyway). Despite the fact that it seems like he's been pitching, and getting hammered by Yankees fans, since 1974, Hughes will be entering his Age 28 season. He's coming off a 1yr deal with New York in which he made $7.15m. This would be one of those possible 1yr deals that could really pay off for both sides. Why? He's a fairly consistent pitcher. In 2012 (when he went 16-13 for the Yankees), his FIP/xFIP was 4.56/4.35, respectively. In 2013, when he was 4-14? 4.50/4.39. He's not going to walk many batters - his career average is 7.4%, and it would be interesting to play out how potential home run rates would be affected by the Crawford Boxes, but he would at least not get rattled by Yankee Stadium's short porch. Seventeen of the 24 homers he allowed in 2013 came at Yankee Stadium, where he allowed a .909 OPS compared to a .735 OPS on the road with a 3.88 ERA. 1yr/$7m? Or would the Astros need to go to 2yrs/$15m?
Ricky Nolasco
Nolasco will be 31 in December and is coming off a 3yr/$26.5m deal that he signed with the Marlins before SHOCK AND SURPRISE they traded him. He's an innings-eater, throwing at least 190IP in each of the last three seasons, and with FIPs under 4.00. His career BB/9 is 2.10, and he hasn't average more than 1HR per 9inn since 2010. Nolasco has a good two-seam fastball to go with a pretty great slider and a middling cutter. Thing is, he may be wanting a longer commitment than the Astros are willing to give out given their depth, however prospective, at starting pitching.
Gavin Floyd
Floyd, who will be 31 this winter, is coming off a 5yr/$25m contract in 2013. He missed almost all of 2013 after having surgery to repair his elbow flexor and UCL. There's the very real possibility he won't even pitch in 2014, which means he's probably off the Astros' radar. But he's a pitcher whose peripheral numbers are slightly better than his ERA indicate.
Bullpen
This is where the Astros need to just back up an armored car to a player's house and say, "Have at it." Chapman, Zeid, and Lo were the only three relievers to have a positive WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs wasn't that kind, saying that only Josh Zeid had a 0.0 WAR. This is where it gets tricky and the fanbase comes into question. Do you spend money on a bullpen with the idea that at least your fans aren't going to want to drink bleach in the latter-third of games? I hope so. After all, it's not my money and, after the last three seasons, winning 70 games would send me on an October-long bender. We had debates on whether or not the Astros' 2013 Goatpen was the worst relief corps in the history of baseball. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't. Point is, we spent a lot of time thinking about the possibility, which means changes have to be made here.
Kevin Chapman: $500,000
Jorge De Leon: $500,000
Josh Fields: $500,000
Chia-Jen Lo: $500,000
Josh Zeid: $500,000
Jesse Crain
UH grad Jesse Crain will be 33 next season, and is coming off a 3yr/$13m contract with the White Sox. After throwing 60+ IP in five seasons between 2005-2011, Crain threw 48IP in 2012 and 36.2IP in 2013. He has a career 3.05 ERA/1.23 WHIP and from 2010-13 has posted a 2.39 ERA/1.17 WHIP with a 2.6 K:BB ratio. Walks are an issue, but he tends not to give up too many hits. From 2011-13 he has stranded 85.7%, 84.8% and 86.1% of baserunners. His fastball sat in the mid-90s in 2013, with a 72mph curve to go along with it. His fastball and slider are above-average, as is his changeup. That said, he has been dealing with a strained shoulder and pitched his last game of the 2013 season on June 29. Could he be had for 2yrs/$10m? 3yrs/$12m?
Ryan Madson
Madson would fall under the Reclamation Project category, seeing as how he last pitched in the 2011 season. He made $6m to not pitch for the Reds in 2012, needing Tommy John surgery. And he got $3.25m to not pitch for the Angels in 2013, beyond a single rehab appearance from that Tommy John elbow before getting shut down again, and released in August. From 2008-11 Madson threw in 109 games (273.2IP) with a 2.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP and a 3.66 K:BB ratio. If he looks like he's healthy, I wonder if the Astros might offer him a 1yr/$2m deal to pitch in Houston.
Mike Gonzalez
Pasadena native Mike Gonzalez is a free agent this season after having signed a 1yr/$2.25m deal with the Brewers for 2013. He wasn't terribly effective, with the 4.04 BB/9 and all, but he did strike out 9.47 batters/9. He also suffered from a .348 BABIP (career BABIP: .292), though his BABIP has risen in every season since 2007. His 4.68 ERA isn't going to ring anybody's bell, but his xFIP was 3.88 (even if his 4.87 FIP isn't impressive, either). If the Astros are looking for a veteran presence in the bullpen, they may be able to get Gonzalez - a lefty - to face LHBs. Righties posted a .929 OPS against Gonzalez, but he was much more successful against fellow lefties (.780 OPS - .352 BABIP). It'll either work out great, or it won't, for not much money either way.
Boone Logan
Logan made $3.15m in 2013, his final year of arbitration, and will be a free agent for the first time in his career. He'll be in his Age 29 season in 2014, and over four seasons with the Yankees posted a 3.38 ERA/1.32 WHIP with 202K in 176IP. He's a lefty who held lefties to a .650 OPS in 2013 (and righties to a .780 OPS). Logan also had surgery this week to remove a bone spur in his left elbow and will resume throwing in December. This website puts his possible contract in line with Sean Burnett, who got 2yrs/$8m from the Angels last season. Given how solid Logan has been for the Yankees over the last four seasons, and with the retirement of Mariano Rivera, they may push hard to re-sign him. But maybe 3yrs/$15m (and honestly, wouldn't you rather Logan get that contract than Brandon Lyon?) gets the job done.
Joba Chamberlain
Ahh, Yankee reliever talk. Over the last three seasons, Chamberlain has thrown just a shade over 90IP in transitioning to the bullpen, and has seen his ERA+ drop from 154 in 2011 to 98 to 83 in 2013 (while his xFIP rose from 3.02 to 3.55 to 4.60). He gave up eight homers in 42IP (18.2% FB/HR rate) and walked 26 batters in 42IP. So the Astros would really be taking a flyer on Chamberlain benefiting from a change of scenery. He made $1.875m in 2013, so the price wouldn't be terribly expensive...if you even want him in the first place.
Eric O'Flaherty
How about taking a flyer on a player who was injured in 2013? The Braves' Eric O'Flaherty will be 29 in February and in his time with the Braves (2009-13), posted a 1.99 ERA/1.16 WHIP (200 ERA+). But he went down in May with a torn UCL and had Tommy John surgery that month. The Astros may be able to come in with an incentive-laden deal, but it all depends on that elbow.
Joel Hanrahan
Hanrahan's 2013 season was ugly. After getting traded to the Red Sox following the 2012 season, he got just over $7m in his 3rd year of arbitration...and only threw in nine games for the Red Sox before tearing the flexor tendon in his pitching arm and needing Tommy John surgery. Seeing as how he had TJ surgery in May, it's unlikely he'd be ready for Opening Day, if in 2014 at all...just like O'Flaherty.
Drew Storen
Storen is the lone player on this long list who would have to be acquired via trade, since he's in his 2nd year (of four years, he is a Super-Two). After squabbling with the Nationals and getting sent down, he dominated upon his return. The problem is that he'll be expensive, since he's still under team control (though at a growing salary in arbitration) until 2017 and the Nationals have their own bullpen issues.
We're doing this keeping in mind what Crane said about Luhnow's process:
“We’re not going to make a move unless it fits into the plan, and we’re not going to rush the plan. [Luhnow] a very systematic formula and we do have some good players coming up. You add three or four key positions and bring in a couple of guys that are ready, this team is pretty competitive pretty quickly with the starting pitching we’ve got. We’re deep in pitching.
Catcher
Jason Castro: $2.2m
Max Stassi: $500,000
Castro is eligible for arbitration for the first time this season and, after a breakout year in 2013, is poised for a pretty significant increase over his 2013 salary of $496,600. MLB Trade Rumors suggests a $2.2m arbitration figure for Castro, but the Astros could sign him to a longer-term deal in the three-year/$8-9m range. Given Castro's late-season knee/cyst issue, I could see the Astros waiting another year to sign him to that type of deal.
It looks as though the Astros are ready to get Stassi more playing time, or at least they were before Tanner Scheppers couldn't figure out how to not hit him in the face with the ball. Stassi will be making around league-minimum.
Infield
Jose Altuve: $1.25m
Chris Carter: $500,000
Matt Dominguez: $500,000
Jonathan Villar: $500,000
Brett Wallace : $500,000
The infield seems pretty much set. In a perfect world, Chris Carter will cut his strikeouts by, say 30-40% and Brett Wallace will finally figure it out. But I just don't know. If the Astros are looking to free agency for a first baseman, here's your list of available free agents:
Jose Dariel Abreu, Jeff Baker, Corey Hart, Mike Napoli, Paul Konerko, Casey Kotchman, Adam Lind, James Loney, Casey McGehee, Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis.
Abreu is a 26-year old Cuban player who was recently declared a free agent by MLB. The Giants and Red Sox have shown a lot of interest in Abreu, and word is that his deal could eclipse Yasiel Puig's 7yr/$42m deal. If the Astros splurge like that on Abreu, they'd be effectively conceding that Jon Singleton isn't - and won't ever be - ready for the Majors. Are you comfortable betting that Singleton is the guy who had a .687 OPS in 73 games at OKC in 2013 - a level at which he had not yet experienced - and not the guy with an .893 OPS for Corpus in 2012? I don't see Abreu happening.
Aside from Jose Abreu, do any of those guys blow your skirt up? Missouri City native and Elkins graduate James Loney turned in a .778 OPS for the Rays on a sweetheart $2m deal with Tampa Bay. He was hitting .331/.392/.531 heading into June, and hit .283/.328/.382 from June 1 through the end of the regular season. You can bet he'll want a raise and a longer-term deal, and the Rays are interested in re-signing him, anyway.
Unless Singleton hits .800 in Spring Training, I think the Astros will let him spend some more time at Oklahoma City, even if 2013 was lost thanks to that 50-game suspension. So the Astros could be looking for a guy who is on the rebound from a lost 2013 and would sign a one-year deal to rebuild his value. Is that Casey Kotchman? He missed almost all of 2013 to injury, and while he posted a .229/.280/.333 line in 142 games for the Indians in 2012, he also did it with an abnormally low .233 BABIP (his career BABIP is .271). The Astros could bet on that regressing back to a more normal number, but would that provide much more value over Carter or Wallace? Because I don't see Carter playing in the outfield much in 2014.
Given that the Astros are bringing in a new coach with infield experience to help out Altuve and Villar, they're staying. Dominguez showed enough pop and defense to stay at Third for 2014.
Outfield
Brandon Barnes: $500,000
Robbie Grossman: $500,000
L.J. Hoes: $500,000
George Springer: $500,000
The Astros do need another outfielder, and this is where it gets interesting. Provided George Springer opens 2014 in the outfield at Minute Maid, this, combined with a free agent signing, could push Barnes and/or Grossman to a 4th-outfielder role. Keep in mind Domingo Santana is 20 years old and just put up 25 homers and an .842 OPS at Corpus in 2013. Springer looks like he's going to be The Man for the next 100 years, so he's locked in. Santana may be ready in 2015, and would just be in his Age 22 season.
But that doesn't help the Astros now, does it? Might the Astros look at Shin-Soo Choo, the 31-year old outfielder represented by Scott Boras...who thinks $100m is "low" for Choo. Boras also had to settle on 4yrs/$48m for Michael Bourn, so Boras is likely doing what Boras does. But, given what you know about the organization and the front office so far, would you expect them to throw $50m at a 31-year old free agent outfielder? And we need to consider what the Astros are right now: a franchise that has been the worst team in baseball for the last three seasons. Will a player sign with Houston if he has a comparable offer somewhere else? If a player has a $10m offer from, say, the Giants, would the Astros have to throw $15m at him to get him to sign in Houston?
What the Astros need is a player who can hit right-handed pitching. The Astros, as a team, hit .235/.295/.374 against RHPs. That's...basically a better-hitting, less-patient Carlos Pena. As Trostel pointed out to me this morning, Robbie Grossman hit - and this is a small sample size alert - .322/.351/.466 in 157 second-half plate appearances, albeit with a .413 BABIP. In the first half, he hit .198/.310/.243 with a .275 BABIP. So he's likely somewhere in the middle of those two halves, but does have some patience and has a decent glove.
Grady Sizemore? Reclamation-project type, but hasn't played a game since 2011. Carlos Beltran? He'll be 37 next season and would likely want a shot at a ring, not to play for a team whose fanbase would go streaking down Crawford if the Astros won 80 games in 2014. Ken Rosenthal said yesterday that the Mariners were getting ready to give Ellsbury 6yrs/$126m. Not Jeff Francoeur. Anybody but Jeff Francoeur. So let's look at some actual possibilities...
Curtis Granderson
Granderson will be 33 on Opening Day 2014, and is coming off a 6yr/$43.25m contract. He only played in 61 games due to getting hit by pitches early in the season. Problem is, the White Sox - who are also looking for offensive help - are expected to try to lure the Chicago native back home. Yankees blog It's About The Money (linked in the previous sentence) said that $15m/year is a reasonable estimate for Granderson's next deal, with the length of the contract in question. But he's hitting .274/.357/.519 in his career against RHP. The question is whether the Astros would give him 3yrs/$54m, and if he'd take it. No, and no. Probably. Who really knows?
Chris Young
Likely more in the Astros' price range, and he's a Bellaire guy, so there's a connection to Houston, if that ever actually means anything. Young just turned 30 and is coming off a 5yr/$28m deal. But he was pretty awful in 107 games with Oakland this season - .200/.280/.379. That's J.D. Martinez with a lower batting average. He can't hit righties, either - his RHP splits were almost 100 points lower (.614 OPS) than his LHP splits (.712 OPS). BUT (and I know we're dealing with sample size) he hit .333/.412/.733 at Minute Maid Park. Three of his 12 homers came at Minute Maid, and while the A's probably aren't interested in bringing him back, he just might fit what the Astros are looking for. Add to that his .237 BABIP in 2013 was almost 40 points lower than his career average. Young has a .725 OPS from 2011-13. Would a 1yr/$5m deal get it done (given that he was worth $2.3m in 2013)? Or would the Astros go crazy and offer 3yrs/$12m and hope that he reverts back to his 2010 form?
Coco Crisp
Crisp will be in his Age 34 season in 2014, and he's not technically a free agent yet - the A's have a team option on 2014 where they can either pay him $7.5m or buy him out for $1m. He killed the Astros this season and doesn't strike out much - 65 times in 584 plate appearances. That's, like, a month's worth of strikeouts for Chris Carter. He provides a lefty option, and hit righties to the tune of .290/.362/.505. Away from Whatever Oakland Calls Their Stadium, he hit .288/.353/.488. And in 15 games against Houston, he hit .339/.471/.768 - though that may say more about Houston's pitching than it does Coco Crisp. In nine games at Minute Maid, he hit .395/.511/.868. Here's where it gets tricky: Crisp's value (as assigned by FanGraphs) over the past two years averaged about $15m. Now, given that his 2014 contract would call for $7.5m, the Astros may have to offer 3yrs/$24-27m. Of course, it doesn't matter if the A's don't buy him out.
Corey Hart
Another injury reclamation project. Hart, who will be 32 on Opening Day 2014, missed all of 2013 due to multiple knee surgeries. Hart made $10m to not play in 2013, and has said that he wants to stay in Milwaukee and would be willing to provide a discount to make that happen. As of September 19, there had not been any discussions about a new deal with Milwaukee, so there's the possibility they'll move on from Hart. From 2010-12, Hart hit .279/.343/.514, and has a career line vs righties of .267/.320/.478 (with an .896 OPS against LHP). In 2012, Hart hit .265/.326/.499 against RHP, and had an OPS of .827, .814, and .825 from 2010-2012 against righties. Given his desire to stay in Milwaukee, it's the Brewers' play to move on from Hart. If the Astros can swoop in and get Hart at 3yrs/$25m - a pay cut from his 2013 salary, but not a significant one - would you make that commitment to Hart's knee surgeries?
Nelson Cruz
Oooh this would probably piss off some Rangers fans, which is worth at least $1m. Cruz, who will be 34 in July 2014, of course missed 50 games in the middle of the season thanks to his Biogenesis suspension. He was hitting .269/.330/.511 before the suspension hit and made $10.5m in 2013. He hit RHP to the tune of .262/.316/.521, striking out 89 times in 339 PAs. Now he's a free agent, and the Biogenesis suspension will play a factor in his next contract. It's hard to say how much, but you can bet he's not going to get an annual average value over $10m...for now. He brought $7.5m in value to the Rangers, would 3yrs/$25m get the job done if the Rangers don't pull the trigger on Cruz?
David DeJesus
DeJesus is another on this list who has a team option for 2014, so the Rays can either exercise his option for $6.5m or buy him out for $1.5m, and would be one of a signing that would by default require him to sit against LHP. He's a lefty, which would be nice for the lineup, and hit well in the lead-off spot (which would allow Porter to bat Altuve 2nd). Against RHP, he hit .266/.345/.427 in 379 PAs with 65K:37BB. Trying to hit lefties would be a mistake, since he was 9x56, with a .161/.217/.250 line. DeJesus hasn't posted an OPS over .800 since 2010, in his final year with the Royals, and so I doubt the Rays pull the trigger on that 2014 option. He'll be in his Age 34 season, so maybe 2yr/$8m would get it done?
Starting Pitching
Jarred Cosart ($500,000)
Brett Oberholtzer ($500,000)
Brad Peacock ($500,000)
Jordan Lyles ($500,000)
The Astros desperately need another starting pitcher...for now. Yes, there is a lot of pitching coming up through the system: notably Asher Wojciechowski and Mike Foltynewicz, but the Astros do seem to want a veteran presence on the staff and I doubt that Jordan Lyles fits the mold, even if he is the longest-tenured starting pitcher on the team. This is where they need to commit some dollars. There are A LOT of free agent pitchers (check the entire list) on the market, but some names immediately stand out as possibilities for players looking to rebuild some value, or that might be interested in a short-term deal...
Masahiro Tanaka
No, the Astros have not yet been linked to the 24-year old Japanese pitcher expected to get posted to join Major League Baseball this winter. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Diamondbacks have, though. As have the Dodgers and Angels. In seven seasons in the JPPL, Tanaka is 95-35 (24-0 this season) with a 2.32 ERA. The LA Times suggested that $25m would win a bid for Tanaka, but then a team would have to sign him to a contract. Think Yu Darvish's 6yr/$56m deal. Is that pricy? Yep. But if the Astros want to spend a lot of money, make a splash, and land the guy MLBTR calls the Top Free Agent pitcher in baseball, Tanaka would do it. In conclusion: Please please please pretty please sign Masahiro Tanaka.
Scott Kazmir
Cy-Falls grad Scott Kazmir will be 30 in January and enjoyed a career resurgence in 2013. Having only thrown 151.2IP since 2010 and missing all of 2012, Kazmir went 10-9 for the Indians with a 4.04 ERA/1.32 WHIP, and all of his peripheral numbers were better than hit career average. Even better, Kazmir's FIP was 3.51 and his xFIP was 3.36, all with a .324 BABIP. Kazmit hadn't averaged over 92mph on his fastball since 2007, watching his velocity fall to 91.7 in 2008, then 91.1, 90.5, and 86.5 in 2011 with the Angels. In 2013, his fastball averaged 92.5mph. The Pitch Values on that fastball aren't as kind, though PITCHf/x says his two-seamer was well above average, as was his changeup. Given his left-handed nature (of which I approve), he would be a marked upgrade from Erik Bedard in the rotation. FanGraphs notched his value at $12.7m in 2013, but given the injury history, would you give Kazmir 3yrs/$25m?
Phil Hughes
Ahh, Phil Hughes whom I routinely mistook for Phil Humber (before this year, anyway). Despite the fact that it seems like he's been pitching, and getting hammered by Yankees fans, since 1974, Hughes will be entering his Age 28 season. He's coming off a 1yr deal with New York in which he made $7.15m. This would be one of those possible 1yr deals that could really pay off for both sides. Why? He's a fairly consistent pitcher. In 2012 (when he went 16-13 for the Yankees), his FIP/xFIP was 4.56/4.35, respectively. In 2013, when he was 4-14? 4.50/4.39. He's not going to walk many batters - his career average is 7.4%, and it would be interesting to play out how potential home run rates would be affected by the Crawford Boxes, but he would at least not get rattled by Yankee Stadium's short porch. Seventeen of the 24 homers he allowed in 2013 came at Yankee Stadium, where he allowed a .909 OPS compared to a .735 OPS on the road with a 3.88 ERA. 1yr/$7m? Or would the Astros need to go to 2yrs/$15m?
Ricky Nolasco
Nolasco will be 31 in December and is coming off a 3yr/$26.5m deal that he signed with the Marlins before SHOCK AND SURPRISE they traded him. He's an innings-eater, throwing at least 190IP in each of the last three seasons, and with FIPs under 4.00. His career BB/9 is 2.10, and he hasn't average more than 1HR per 9inn since 2010. Nolasco has a good two-seam fastball to go with a pretty great slider and a middling cutter. Thing is, he may be wanting a longer commitment than the Astros are willing to give out given their depth, however prospective, at starting pitching.
Gavin Floyd
Floyd, who will be 31 this winter, is coming off a 5yr/$25m contract in 2013. He missed almost all of 2013 after having surgery to repair his elbow flexor and UCL. There's the very real possibility he won't even pitch in 2014, which means he's probably off the Astros' radar. But he's a pitcher whose peripheral numbers are slightly better than his ERA indicate.
Bullpen
This is where the Astros need to just back up an armored car to a player's house and say, "Have at it." Chapman, Zeid, and Lo were the only three relievers to have a positive WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs wasn't that kind, saying that only Josh Zeid had a 0.0 WAR. This is where it gets tricky and the fanbase comes into question. Do you spend money on a bullpen with the idea that at least your fans aren't going to want to drink bleach in the latter-third of games? I hope so. After all, it's not my money and, after the last three seasons, winning 70 games would send me on an October-long bender. We had debates on whether or not the Astros' 2013 Goatpen was the worst relief corps in the history of baseball. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't. Point is, we spent a lot of time thinking about the possibility, which means changes have to be made here.
Kevin Chapman: $500,000
Jorge De Leon: $500,000
Josh Fields: $500,000
Chia-Jen Lo: $500,000
Josh Zeid: $500,000
Jesse Crain
UH grad Jesse Crain will be 33 next season, and is coming off a 3yr/$13m contract with the White Sox. After throwing 60+ IP in five seasons between 2005-2011, Crain threw 48IP in 2012 and 36.2IP in 2013. He has a career 3.05 ERA/1.23 WHIP and from 2010-13 has posted a 2.39 ERA/1.17 WHIP with a 2.6 K:BB ratio. Walks are an issue, but he tends not to give up too many hits. From 2011-13 he has stranded 85.7%, 84.8% and 86.1% of baserunners. His fastball sat in the mid-90s in 2013, with a 72mph curve to go along with it. His fastball and slider are above-average, as is his changeup. That said, he has been dealing with a strained shoulder and pitched his last game of the 2013 season on June 29. Could he be had for 2yrs/$10m? 3yrs/$12m?
Ryan Madson
Madson would fall under the Reclamation Project category, seeing as how he last pitched in the 2011 season. He made $6m to not pitch for the Reds in 2012, needing Tommy John surgery. And he got $3.25m to not pitch for the Angels in 2013, beyond a single rehab appearance from that Tommy John elbow before getting shut down again, and released in August. From 2008-11 Madson threw in 109 games (273.2IP) with a 2.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP and a 3.66 K:BB ratio. If he looks like he's healthy, I wonder if the Astros might offer him a 1yr/$2m deal to pitch in Houston.
Mike Gonzalez
Pasadena native Mike Gonzalez is a free agent this season after having signed a 1yr/$2.25m deal with the Brewers for 2013. He wasn't terribly effective, with the 4.04 BB/9 and all, but he did strike out 9.47 batters/9. He also suffered from a .348 BABIP (career BABIP: .292), though his BABIP has risen in every season since 2007. His 4.68 ERA isn't going to ring anybody's bell, but his xFIP was 3.88 (even if his 4.87 FIP isn't impressive, either). If the Astros are looking for a veteran presence in the bullpen, they may be able to get Gonzalez - a lefty - to face LHBs. Righties posted a .929 OPS against Gonzalez, but he was much more successful against fellow lefties (.780 OPS - .352 BABIP). It'll either work out great, or it won't, for not much money either way.
Boone Logan
Logan made $3.15m in 2013, his final year of arbitration, and will be a free agent for the first time in his career. He'll be in his Age 29 season in 2014, and over four seasons with the Yankees posted a 3.38 ERA/1.32 WHIP with 202K in 176IP. He's a lefty who held lefties to a .650 OPS in 2013 (and righties to a .780 OPS). Logan also had surgery this week to remove a bone spur in his left elbow and will resume throwing in December. This website puts his possible contract in line with Sean Burnett, who got 2yrs/$8m from the Angels last season. Given how solid Logan has been for the Yankees over the last four seasons, and with the retirement of Mariano Rivera, they may push hard to re-sign him. But maybe 3yrs/$15m (and honestly, wouldn't you rather Logan get that contract than Brandon Lyon?) gets the job done.
Joba Chamberlain
Ahh, Yankee reliever talk. Over the last three seasons, Chamberlain has thrown just a shade over 90IP in transitioning to the bullpen, and has seen his ERA+ drop from 154 in 2011 to 98 to 83 in 2013 (while his xFIP rose from 3.02 to 3.55 to 4.60). He gave up eight homers in 42IP (18.2% FB/HR rate) and walked 26 batters in 42IP. So the Astros would really be taking a flyer on Chamberlain benefiting from a change of scenery. He made $1.875m in 2013, so the price wouldn't be terribly expensive...if you even want him in the first place.
Eric O'Flaherty
How about taking a flyer on a player who was injured in 2013? The Braves' Eric O'Flaherty will be 29 in February and in his time with the Braves (2009-13), posted a 1.99 ERA/1.16 WHIP (200 ERA+). But he went down in May with a torn UCL and had Tommy John surgery that month. The Astros may be able to come in with an incentive-laden deal, but it all depends on that elbow.
Joel Hanrahan
Hanrahan's 2013 season was ugly. After getting traded to the Red Sox following the 2012 season, he got just over $7m in his 3rd year of arbitration...and only threw in nine games for the Red Sox before tearing the flexor tendon in his pitching arm and needing Tommy John surgery. Seeing as how he had TJ surgery in May, it's unlikely he'd be ready for Opening Day, if in 2014 at all...just like O'Flaherty.
Drew Storen
Storen is the lone player on this long list who would have to be acquired via trade, since he's in his 2nd year (of four years, he is a Super-Two). After squabbling with the Nationals and getting sent down, he dominated upon his return. The problem is that he'll be expensive, since he's still under team control (though at a growing salary in arbitration) until 2017 and the Nationals have their own bullpen issues.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
2014 Schedule Released
The times are yet to be determined, but Brian McTaggart has your 2014 Astros schedule. Immediate thoughts:
*The Astros' season runs from Tuesday, April 1 - Sunday, September 28.
*The Astros open at home with a seven-game homestand: three games against the Yankees and four games against the Angels.
*Once again, April is AL West-heavy: 28 games in April, 17 against the AL West (and seven with Oakland).
*The Astros are on the road for Memorial Day and July 4th.
*Labor Day is my chief complaint. The Astros have a nine-game homestand from August 25 - September 3. Labor Day is Monday, September 1. Who do the Astros play? Nobody. They start a two (TWO) game series with the Angels on September 2nd. Well, sure, you say. The Angels must be wrapping up a four-game series with somebody on Labor Day, right? No. The Astros and Angels are both off on Labor Day, sitting in their hotel rooms, not playing on the last major holiday before the end of the season. This is ridiculous.
*The Astros have two ten-game road trips from August 14 - September 15.
*Longest homestand: Ten games, July 25 - August 3.
*Interleague Play: April 29-30 vs. Washington; June 17/18 @ Washington; June 24-26 vs. Atlanta; July 25-27 vs. Miami; August 5-7 @ Philadelphia; September 26-28 @ NY Mets.
*"Natural Rivalry Week" - June 9/10 @ Arizona; June 11/12 vs. Arizona
*The Astros' season runs from Tuesday, April 1 - Sunday, September 28.
*The Astros open at home with a seven-game homestand: three games against the Yankees and four games against the Angels.
*Once again, April is AL West-heavy: 28 games in April, 17 against the AL West (and seven with Oakland).
*The Astros are on the road for Memorial Day and July 4th.
*Labor Day is my chief complaint. The Astros have a nine-game homestand from August 25 - September 3. Labor Day is Monday, September 1. Who do the Astros play? Nobody. They start a two (TWO) game series with the Angels on September 2nd. Well, sure, you say. The Angels must be wrapping up a four-game series with somebody on Labor Day, right? No. The Astros and Angels are both off on Labor Day, sitting in their hotel rooms, not playing on the last major holiday before the end of the season. This is ridiculous.
*The Astros have two ten-game road trips from August 14 - September 15.
*Longest homestand: Ten games, July 25 - August 3.
*Interleague Play: April 29-30 vs. Washington; June 17/18 @ Washington; June 24-26 vs. Atlanta; July 25-27 vs. Miami; August 5-7 @ Philadelphia; September 26-28 @ NY Mets.
*"Natural Rivalry Week" - June 9/10 @ Arizona; June 11/12 vs. Arizona
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