Monday, November 4, 2013

Qualifying Offers update

So there's this new-ish wrinkle in the CBA for the offseason. It actually started last season, but it's worth talking about now as the Astros are actually in the market for free agents that other teams might actually want.

If a team offers a qualifying offer to a free agent, the free agent can accept the offer and automatically agree to a 1yr/$14.1m deal. If they don't accept said offer, they hit the market but the former team receives a draft pick.

In the Astros' case, if they sign a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer they do not lose the 1-1 pick. They do, however, lose the 1-40 pick - Round A Competitive Balance pick they acquired from Baltimore in the Bud Norris trade (along with L.J. Hoes and Josh Hader).

So the question is if the Astros are willing to give up that pick, or did they push for that Competitive Balance pick from Baltimore in order to have the flexibility to give it up by signing a higher-profile free agent? If you ask this question, you should know full well that Jeff Luhnow and the Decision Sciences department have already killed you.

Who are the notable free agents who have been offered a Qualifying Offer?
Ubaldo Jimenez, as well as (via MLBTR): Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, Ervin Santana.

Obviously the Astros aren't in the market for all of them, but maybe this changes your opinion of signing someone like Nelson Cruz or Shin-Soo Choo.


    Anonymous said...

    Wouldn't 1-40 be their second rounder which they will keep? The comp pick will be closer to 33

    Hurtya said...

    I'd still be fine with someone like Choo, because he's young enough to be a 3/4 year investment that could be good at the end.

    Even just a couple years older, though, it significantly lowers my opinion of signing a Nelson Cruz. At 33, It's hard to be confident that he'll be good for more than a couple years or so. I mean maybe he lasts longer, but it's even more iffy.

    A signing has to be about the future, too, if we're giving up some future to do it.

    Anonymous said...

    I really don't like the idea of loosing the supplemental 1st round draft pick we got from the Orioles for Norris. If we picked up a qualifying FA and lost the pick it would make the Norris trade worse and it would take away a huge budget chunk for signing players in draft. With Rodon as the top pick, he won't be cheap. We have to take advantage of drafting so high. When we begin to come closer to winning, we will bump out of the top ten. Then we will really see if Lunhow is good at drafting.

    Loosing this pick would not make sense with the type of management we have in place.

    Personally, I don't see anyone worth it. Even Choo.

    Abreu was worth going after, maybe even the Japanese or Korean pitchers. But we need another year before getting really big high profile FA.

    Next year I think it will be more clear with who we have as a nucleus.

    Picking up an innings eater that is better than Bedard would be great, and maybe an outfielder like Rodney who needs to rebuild his career and we can trade him later. Add that to a closer like bringing back and add Crain and I think we have done a very solid step forward.

    Anonymous said...

    bringing back Veras! (last paragraph of anonymous post)

    Blazemule said...

    I really don't like this FA class enough to lose the pick honestly. I know we are hurting for some quality players I think we could do better on the trade market, possibly a team looking to dump some salary for a couple mediocre prospects.

    Aaron said...

    I don't think I'd want Cruz regardless of the QO

    Anonymous said...

    if you cant catch a routine fly ball to end the world series, i dont want you on my team.

    Anonymous said...

    Think Astros could make a move for Choo but he won't land in Houston. Think it'll be a bigger, bolder version of last year. Take a swing at players who've had a down year and want to rebuild value for a season. David Murphy and Josh Johnson being standout candidates. If the right deal becomes available for a Choo, I think they'll move for him but I just think that the price will be too high. Just because there is money to spend doesn't mean the Astros Front Office got dumber. They'll only spend it intelligently.