Saturday, May 16, 2009

Cooper: Hugo Chavez of Baseball?

If Jose de Jesus Ortiz isn't careful, Cooper's going to shovel-whack him. Pretty shocking blog today after a tough Astros loss to the Cubs. Let's look at an excerpt:

I'm going to let you in on a little secret.

Cooper's new nickname in the Astros' clubhouse is Hugo Chavez, whom you all may know is that Fidel Castro wannabe who runs Venezuela. I was informed of that fact yesterday at Wrigley Field, and that was before Cooper's second-guessing special.

I tried my hardest to find somebody to go on the record - other than Cooper - defending his late-inning decisions. I couldn't find anybody, although I didn't check with bench coach Ed Romero, who is on his job because he's Cooper's great friend.

I asked first base coach Jose Cruz for a comment, but Cruz politely said, "I just work here."

Let's be clear that players win and lose games, but they also have to believe in their manager. For the first time since I described the clubhouse as toxic last year in Baltimore, this visit to Wrigley is the first time when I've been approached with so many disgruntled players.


Uh-oh.

Reactions to G36 - Astros at Cubs

LaTroy Hawkins:
“There we go again. I want to kick myself for walking the leadoff hitter. That’s the game right there - leadoff walks. If I don’t leadoff walk that guy, then it’s just a regular old single.”

Cooper, on whether or not he considered walking Soriano (who instead had the walk-off RBI):
"No, not at all. “You make pitches, you get him out. Simple as that. We didn't make our pitches. If we make pitches, we get him out. It's not like he crushed the ball. The ball went off the end of the bat. You make pitches, you get him out."

Soriano:
"I wanted to try to hit the ball to the gap in right field. That pitch was away, and I put the ball in play."

Piniella, on Soriano:
"When he goes to right field, good things will happen. I've told him that many times."

Piniella, on Gregg:
"You certainly don't expect your closer to get hit that hard. I talked to our catcher, Geovany, and he said [Gregg] was up and down the middle with about everything. He needed the work, we needed to pitch him, and he'll be better tomorrow."

Cooper:
“We were pretty much dead in the water. Then Lance gets a swat for us and gets us going. We had our chances there. We had three shots to knock a run home and we didn't."

Berkman:
“I was very pleased with our effort in the ninth inning. You could have easily just packed it in when you’re down four runs and a team has their closer on the mound. I’d be willing to bet that doesn’t happen that often that you come back to tie that game. It’s just disappointing to lose a game that didn’t look like we were going to win, didn’t look like we were going to have a chance to win, then it looked like we should have won it. And now it’s disappointing again.”

Recap for G36 - Astros at Cubs

Thought the Astros had it. You don't score four runs in the 9th at Wrigley, have runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out, hit two fly balls to Kosuke Fukudome, and not have the 5th run score, do you?

Oswalt: 6IP, 6H, 3ER, 7K:0BB
Arias: 1IP, 1K
Wright: .1IP, 1ER, 0K:2BB
Sampson: .2IP, 1H,
Hawkins: .1IP, 1H, 1BB

Oswalt pitched alright - another home run, this time to Micah Hoffpauir - but he still had what is considered a quality start. And another no decision.










PitcherPit/StrStrike%BF/OutsEfficiency%GB/FB/K
Oswalt108/7266.7%25/1872%4/7/7
Arias9/777.8%3/3100%2/0/1
Wright15/640%3/133.3%0/1/0
Sampson12/866.7%3/266.7%1/1/0
LaHawk12/866.7%3/133.3%1/0/0
Total156/10164.7%37/2567.6%8/9/8



Matsui and Bourn were a combined 0x9 in 10 plate appearances (Bourn did draw a walk). However, 3-8 were 9x21 with all four runs and RBI, 2K:4BB. It looked like the Astros had Wells on the ropes in the early going. In the second inning, Pudge walked to load the bases, and Roy grounded out to end the 29-pitch inning for Wells. In the 3rd, the Astros had Lance and Lee on, and this time Tejada grounded out to end the inning. After that, the Astros had 1-2-3 innings from the 4th-8th. That's 15 up and 15 down. But then the 9th happened.

Now, Berkman and Lee went back-to-back (on three total pitches) in the top of the 9th, making it a 4-2 game. Then Tejada singles to left, then Pence singles to center and Tejada takes an extra base. Blum is then hit, loading the bases, and then Pudge singles, scoring Tejada and Pence - tying the game - and Blum is on 2nd with no outs. Noodlearm Fukudome is in right. Michaels pinch-hits, fly ball to right. Blum stays put. Matsui flies out to right. Blum stays put. Bourn walks, loading the bases for Berkman, who grounds out.

Let's look at this. Should Blum hustle it up and take third on what would be considered a sac fly from Michaels, he's in line to score the 5th run of the game when Matsui flies out to right. He doesn't do any of that, and the Astros leave the game tied. LaHawk nuts it (maybe Sampson and his 1.59 ERA should be taken for a spin in the 9th), and the game is over.

Longest AB of the night: 10 pitches by Blum in the 2nd, resulted in a single.

Man of the Match:
Carlos Lee. 3x4 with a homer to follow Berkman's to turn a fluke into a rally.

Goat of the Game:
Geoff Blum. Poor baserunning decisions led to what could have been a much, much different game.
Gotta do a quick version until tonight.
MotM: Carlos Lee - 3x4 with a run and an rbi
GotG: Easy pick is the bullpen. I'm giving it to Blum. See below.
Can someone please explain to me how Blum wasn't running on neither Michaels' or Matsui's flyballs on Noodlearm Fukudome? That's a 5-4 game if he does.

Matchup for G36 - Astros at Cubs

So in essence the Astros have another two-game series against the Cubs. Probably the last thing a hot-hitting Astros team needed was a cancellation yesterday, but we can't blame the rain on the Cubs (though their sinfulness probably had something to do with it).

Roy Oswalt

Cooper shuffled the rotation in the wake of yesterday's cancellation to keep Roy on his normal schedule.

Last three starts:






Date-OppIPH/ERK:BBGB/FBPit/Str
5/2 @ATL10/02:10/117/9
5/5 @WAS54/44:24/1089/55
5/10 vSD66/44:25/14104/68


It's been an interesting May for Roy, and it all started with his one inning outing at Atlanta, a 97-minute rain delay that sent him to the showers early, and ultimately starting him three days later at Washington. In his last two starts, Roy has managed to get only nine ground balls, compared to 24 fly balls (and two line drives). That's not good, and after two homer-less appearances, he has given up four extra bases in the last two outings - but three of those were home runs.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 20x85, .235/.305/.494, 13K:8BB
vs Lefties: 25x80, .313/.360/.475, 15K:6BB

This could cause some problems as the Cubs do have a pretty balanced lineup.

When swinging at the first pitch (24): .391/.391/.870, 3HR
After First-Pitch Strikes (96): .244/.274/.367, 17K:3BB
After First-Pitch Balls (63): .269/.397/.519, 11K:11BB

RISP: 4x25, .160/.290/.320, 6K:5BB
Runners on: 15x62, .242/.304/.532, 10K:6BB
None on: 30x103, .291/.348/.456, 18K:8BB
2OwRISP: 1x11, .091/.231/.091, 2K:2BB

0 out: .323/.364/.597, 10K:3BB
2 out: .188/.291/.354, 5K:7BB

I just don't see how Roy can't turn his season around. Aside from being fly-ball prone lately, Roy's stats look good. Is it a lack of focus with 0 out? Obviously the first pitch of the at-bat is killing Roy, maybe batters are starting to become less intimidated. And if that's the case, there's no stat that can measure that effect.

Randy Wells

26-year old rookie Randy Wells gets the start today, as a spot-start for Carlos Zambrano. He was originally slated to go yesterday, but was pushed back. He has made only one start this season so far...

Last start:




Date-OppIPH/ERK:BBGB/FBPit/Str
5/8 @MIL55/05:28/684/51


Wells only gave up one extra base hit to a Brewers team that actually took the May 8-10 series against the Cubs.

Let's do the splits vs the Brewers
vs Righties: 5x17
vs Lefties: 0x2

Swinging at first pitch: (2), 1x2
After First-Pitch Strikes (11): 3x10
After First-Pitch Balls (8): 1x7

RISP: 0x5
Runners on: 2x10
2OwRISP: 0x3

Bullpen giving Cooper hemorrhoids

So with Geary, Brocail and Valverde going down 30 games into the season, it's messing up Cooper's rotation.

"It's very tough. You have to figure out who's available first. Then you have to figure out what you want to do. Figure it out, according to matchups."

One guy who is pleased by this is Chris Sampson:
"It was a great opportunity [on Thursday in Denver], pitching the eighth inning. I just have to take advantage of these opportunities and prove to everyone that I can help out in the back end of the bullpen when they need me. Hopefully, that would open some eyes this year as well as for my career."

Don't know about you, but I wouldn't mind seeing Sampson pitching some 9th inning. He's the only reliever the Astros have who I don't want to crap my pants when I see him warming up. Enjoy some stats:

22IP, 16H/4ER, 9K:8BB, 1.64 ERA / 1.09 WHIP. 86 batters faced/66 outs (76.7%).
35 ground balls / 34 fly balls.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Backe to get more rehab starts than expected

Within this Notebook we read that Backe may need as many as two more rehab starts.

At first glance, you get the idea that they just want to get Backe healthy before he rejoins the rotation. Easy Eddie was at Backe's last start Wednesday, and Coop had this to say:

Wade “said (Backe) pitched fine. They had a big lead late in the game, and he thinks he just ran out of gas in the seventh inning. They said he pitched fine, located well and looked real sharp.”

So why not activate him? Maybe because they want to give it ten more days to see if Moehler or Paulino struggle. Cooper did address pushing Backe to the bullpen in Geary's spot, but decided starting is what Backe needed to focus on.

The Astros are going to have some tough decisions to make once Backe has made his schedule 20 rehab starts waiting for someone else to get hurt. Are they keeping him in rehab starts to enhance trade value? Or just hedging their rotation bets...

Want to get your own food at Minute Maid Park? Eat it!

Did you know that there is only one Major League ballpark at which you are not able to bring in any food and/or drink? That's right, it's our very own Juice Box...

Astros "in trouble"

Tom Verducci's column today discusses how baseball is a young man's game, noting a number of older veterans who remained unsigned, largely because of the ban on amphetamines. Then he throws the Astros directly in the path of the bus:

With not only steroid testing but also amphetamine testing in place, clubs no longer can count on players extending their prime years through their mid- and late-30s. The Astros are in trouble because they counted on way too many old players. The Yankees have scuffled because of injuries to old players. The Tigers have tried to remake themselves since the middle of last year by losing some old players (Kenny Rogers, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez) and hoping others bounce back from slow starts (Ordonez, Placido Polanco). The Red Sox are swimming against the tide with four regulars age 33 or older (Ortiz, Jason Varitek, J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell). The bottom line, in case you weren't paying attention to the World Series last year: It's a young man's game.

Brutal.

Off the hook!

G35 postponed @ Miller Park South has been postponed due to rain. This has obviously caused some issues with the rotation. The matchup was to be:

Moehler vs. Wells
Oswalt vs. Marshall
Paulino vs. Harden

It is now...

Oswalt vs. Wells
Moehler vs. Harden

Weekend update

As much as it kills me, because this weekend is the series with the Cubs, coverage is going to be a little spotty today. Check back for updates, but probably not as often as you normally might...

Jose de Jesus Ortiz calls out Cooper, and me likee

You need to read the whole thing, but JJO went off on Cooper in a blog post today.

Calling him out continuing to run Geary out there, despite the fact that Geary said he'd been hurting for at least a week.

There's a testy little exchange, but Cooper says that he kept putting Geary in game situations, because "he said he could pitch," even though Geary knew he was experiencing soreness.

I couldn't agree more with Ortiz here. There's a fine line between pulling a Pavano and being tough. It's a long season, and you're going to get dinged up, but if you're at the point where playing is counter-productive, then the player needs to take responsibility. No player is going to turn down the ball or an at-bat. But it's up to the manager to make that decision for them. I would tell Coop I could pitch, but that's the last thing he would want to do.

Cooper did the same thing with Valverde, asking him what he wanted to do. That's not going to cut it - Cooper's going to have to manage tough to keep this team in contention, and he's not going to do that by running guys out there who are too proud to say they're hurting the team.

Reactions to G35 - Astros at Rockies

Pudge, on Wandy:
“He used a few changes in and out, but definitely his breaking ball was really strong today."

Cooper:
“Today we were kind of executing and taking advantage of (the errors). That’s what good teams do if you get the other on the ropes.”

Cooper, on Wandy:
“Sometimes the good pitchers — and I think Wandy’s right in that level now — once they get a lead and they know it’s going to get late in the ballgame, they start to dial it up. I thought he had two or three key strikeouts. You can see how he has a little more emotion. He seemed to get stronger as he went on.”

Hammel:
"I had good stuff today. Once I throw the ball, it's up the guys to make the play. We had a couple of unfortunate plays and it ended costing us."

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Quick version tonight:
Man of the Match: Toss-up between Wandy and Bourn. Let's give it to Wandy for stopping the Rockies.
Goat: How about Berkman? 0x4, error

Jayson Stark on the Astros...

Today's Rumblings and Grumblings column by Jayson Stark has an extended mix on the Astros possible activity at the trade deadline:

As clubs begin sketching out their July shopping lists, no one can figure out the Astros.

They could have a bunch of marketable veterans (Jose Valverde, Pudge Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins, Tim Byrdak, Doug Brocail if he gets healthy and maybe even guys such as Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Russ Ortiz). They also could put one of the hottest names on the market, in Roy Oswalt.

But what are the chances that always-upbeat owner Drayton McLane would agree to a sell-off? No one is too sure.

"Based on the history?" an executive of one club said, laughing. "I'd say zero."

Granted, the Astros are famous for their slow starts and furious finishes. But where are the signs that this team can contend? It has allowed the second-most runs in the league and scored the fifth-fewest.

"Face it, they're the oldest team in the league, and they're not winning," the same exec said. "They need to get younger and more athletic. So how do they do that? They need to start getting those older guys out of there. Move some veterans. Move some money. Get some younger blood in there. Drayton needs to come to grips with the idea that, from a baseball perspective, that's what they need to do."

The Astros do have no-trade issues, however. Oswalt and Lance Berkman have total no-trade clauses. And Carlos Lee has one through 2010.

Geary to DL - Fulchino recalled

So that's pretty self-explanatory. Official word on Geary is "right biceps tendinitis." Fulchino up from Round Rock in his 3rd stint with the Club.

Matchup for G35 - Astros at Rockies

Here's your rubber match, folks, and I like the matchup. Wandy/Pudge. Let's just look to see the difference when Pudge catches Wandy as opposed to the rest of Wandy's career:









CatcherGamesH/RK:BBBA/OBP/SLG
Ausmus48243/116218:74.259/.411/.725
Quintero26129/7799:57.277/.364/.494
Towles944/2140:15.238/.299/.384
Pudge732/937:15.208/.285/.266


Obviously there is a sample set issue, but from the limited results so far we should be pretty encouraged by Pudge's influence on young-ish Wandy. Now, can this be chalked up to Dewey Robinson and Wandy's normal progression in his career? Sure, but some credit should be given to the guy calling the game.

Wandy's last three starts:






Date-OppIPH/ERK:BBGB/FBPit/Str
4/28 @CIN75/15:29/1099/66
5/3 @ATL56/33:38/886/55
5/8 vSD85/07:08/14116/82


This is self-explanatory. Wandy is pitching like Roy, and Roy is kind of pitching like Wandy used to, so while Roy finds his form Wandy has been lights out and a bullpen-speller. Wandy got 31 non-contact strikes (17 looking/14 swinging) against the Padres - the most since his 7 inning gem against Cincinnati where he got 37 non-contact strikes. He's 3-2, but could very easily be 5-0, giving up four total runs in his two losses (and four total runs in two NDs).

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 30x119, .252/.323/.319, 27K:11BB
vs Lefties: 2x35, .057/.154/.386, 10K:4BB

After First-Pitch Strikes (92): .232/.289/.280, 24K:5BB
After First-Pitch Balls (66): .125/.258/.296, 13K:10BB

RISP: 5x35, .143/.184/.143, 9K:1BB
Runners on: 14x61, .230/.294/.279, 12K:4BB
2OwRISP: 3x19, .158/.200/.158, 7K:0BB

Wandy is coming in on five days rest. That's happened only once this season, and how did that work out? 7IP, 2H/0ER, 10K:2BB.

Jason Hammel

Hammel has been a reliever and a starter for Colorado so far this season, starting the last three games in which he appeared this season. And with the exception of the middle game, it wasn't pretty....

Last three starts:






Date-OppIPH/ERK:BBGB/FBPit/Str
4/2737/52:35/1078/45
5/3 @SF66/01:212/979/48
5/8 vFLA4.18/64:18/980/51


It will be interesting to see how long Hurdle lets Hammel go in this game. The Rockies are in the midst of 16 games in 16 days and Hurdle lamented how much the bullpen has been taxed by ineffective starters (note Rusch's extended relief performance last night). Hammel was extremely efficient against the Giants, only needing 79 pitches to go six innings, but as you can see his pitch count has been right around 80, though that may have been more out of necessity due to the situation. The best possible thing for the Astros after a 24-hit night is an afternoon game.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 11x36, .306/.333/.417, 8K:2BB
vs Lefties: 17x48, .354/.426/.667, 4K:6BB

After First-Pitch Strikes (44): .214/.250/.524, 9K:2BB
After First-Pitch Balls (39): .452/.526/.484, 3K:6BB

RISP: 6x17, .353/.500/.471, 2K:6BB
Runners on: 7x31, .226/.359/.290, 4K:7BB
2OwRISP: 2x15, .133/.133/.400, 1K:0BB

With 2 outs in an inning, opponents are hitting .438/.526/.750 in 32ABs with 1K:6BB. And the second time around the order, opponents are 12x30 against Hammel.

Geary's velocity drop

According to the rather incredible FanGraphs page for Geoff Geary, we see some telling signs of arm issues:

Average fastball
2008: 91.5 mph
2009: 89.6 mph

Average curveball
2008: 80.6 mph
2009: 79.4 mph

Average changeup
2008: 84.5 mph
2009: 82.3 mph

Average slider
2008: 82.7 mph
2009: 81.3 mph

That's a 1-2 mph drop in every single pitch, so it's not like he's taking something off his breaking pitches.

Geary to DL?

Lots of chatter this morning about Geary's next destination: the Disabled List (which I've always thought is a fairly harsh term).

So who will the Astros bring up to fill his spot?

Fulchino: Hasn't done so well in his two stints with the Astros...
Casey Daigle: 14.1IP, 15H/3ER, 10K:5BB, 1.88 ERA / 1.40 WHIP (and the guy from the American-Statesman can crap his pants about Jennie Finch)
Chad Paronto: 13IP, 7H/1ER, 9K:3BB, 0.69 ERA / 0.77 WHIP
Recent signee Brendan Donnelly: 8IP, 8H/3ER, 7K:2BB, 3.38 ERA / 1.25 WHIP