Saturday, May 16, 2009

Matchup for G36 - Astros at Cubs

So in essence the Astros have another two-game series against the Cubs. Probably the last thing a hot-hitting Astros team needed was a cancellation yesterday, but we can't blame the rain on the Cubs (though their sinfulness probably had something to do with it).

Roy Oswalt

Cooper shuffled the rotation in the wake of yesterday's cancellation to keep Roy on his normal schedule.

Last three starts:






Date-OppIPH/ERK:BBGB/FBPit/Str
5/2 @ATL10/02:10/117/9
5/5 @WAS54/44:24/1089/55
5/10 vSD66/44:25/14104/68


It's been an interesting May for Roy, and it all started with his one inning outing at Atlanta, a 97-minute rain delay that sent him to the showers early, and ultimately starting him three days later at Washington. In his last two starts, Roy has managed to get only nine ground balls, compared to 24 fly balls (and two line drives). That's not good, and after two homer-less appearances, he has given up four extra bases in the last two outings - but three of those were home runs.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 20x85, .235/.305/.494, 13K:8BB
vs Lefties: 25x80, .313/.360/.475, 15K:6BB

This could cause some problems as the Cubs do have a pretty balanced lineup.

When swinging at the first pitch (24): .391/.391/.870, 3HR
After First-Pitch Strikes (96): .244/.274/.367, 17K:3BB
After First-Pitch Balls (63): .269/.397/.519, 11K:11BB

RISP: 4x25, .160/.290/.320, 6K:5BB
Runners on: 15x62, .242/.304/.532, 10K:6BB
None on: 30x103, .291/.348/.456, 18K:8BB
2OwRISP: 1x11, .091/.231/.091, 2K:2BB

0 out: .323/.364/.597, 10K:3BB
2 out: .188/.291/.354, 5K:7BB

I just don't see how Roy can't turn his season around. Aside from being fly-ball prone lately, Roy's stats look good. Is it a lack of focus with 0 out? Obviously the first pitch of the at-bat is killing Roy, maybe batters are starting to become less intimidated. And if that's the case, there's no stat that can measure that effect.

Randy Wells

26-year old rookie Randy Wells gets the start today, as a spot-start for Carlos Zambrano. He was originally slated to go yesterday, but was pushed back. He has made only one start this season so far...

Last start:




Date-OppIPH/ERK:BBGB/FBPit/Str
5/8 @MIL55/05:28/684/51


Wells only gave up one extra base hit to a Brewers team that actually took the May 8-10 series against the Cubs.

Let's do the splits vs the Brewers
vs Righties: 5x17
vs Lefties: 0x2

Swinging at first pitch: (2), 1x2
After First-Pitch Strikes (11): 3x10
After First-Pitch Balls (8): 1x7

RISP: 0x5
Runners on: 2x10
2OwRISP: 0x3

1 comment:

Seth said...

Excellent statistical analysis bro. If I was Roy and I saw that, it would make me better. You have to think if he was just aware that he was getting slapped around on the first pitch, he could make a minor mental tweak on his first pitch approach to correct that.

The fly ball ratio worries me a little, but I think that Roy has always been a bit of a fly ball pitcher. I could be wrong though.