Showing posts with label Tim Federowicz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Federowicz. Show all posts

Thursday, August 9, 2018

Thursday Morning Hot Links

The last 9pm start is on August 24. There are four more off-days between this morning and the end of the regular season. That's crazy.

*2018 Record: 73-42
*2017 Record: 71-44

Houston has a 5-game lead on Oakland and an 8-game lead on Seattle, who are now 15 games over .500 with a -29 run differential.

Playoff Odds Check

FanGraphs (103-59): 98.3% to win division, 99.6% to make playoffs, 23.6% to win World Series
FiveThirtyEight (102-60): 95% to win division, >99% to make playoffs, 20% to win World Series
Baseball Prospectus: (102-60): 96.3% to win division, 99.9% to make playoffs, 16% to win World Series

-A couple of notes here: FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox a higher percentage of winning the World Series. Baseball Prospectus hadn't updated since yesterday morning.

*Houston is +450 to win the World Series again, slightly behind the Vegas' favorite Red Sox, at +400.

*Change in OPS through 115 games, 2017 to 2018:

Alex Bregman: + .065 (.835 to .900)
Evan Gattis: -.020 (.820 to .800)
Yuli Gurriel: -.087 (.803 to .716)
Josh Reddick: -.095 (.830 to .735)
Brian McCann: -.115 (.721 to .606)
Jose Altuve: -.134 (.991 to .857)
Carlos Correa: -.134 (.966 to .832)
Jake Marisnick: -.156 (.830 to .674)
George Springer: -.198 (.970 to .772)
Marwin Gonzalez: -.255 (.962 to .707)

I'm going to cherry-pick a stat here, but Jake Marisnick - May 24-August 7 (97 PAs): .282/.371/.529.

Jake Marisnick, June 1 - present:   .303/.410/.576
George Springer, June 1 - present: .214/.326/.383

ERA/WHIP through 115 games, 2017 to 2018:

Dallas Keuchel: 2.87 / 1.11 : 3.53 / 1.24
Lance McCullers: 3.92 / 1.29 : 3.93 / 1.19
Charlie Morton: 3.83 / 1.25 : 2.81 / 1.14
Brad Peacock: 3.07 / 1.26 : 2.96 / 0.97
Will Harris: 2.86 / 0.95 : 4.24 / 1.22
Collin McHugh: 5.32 / 1.36 : 1.00 / 0.72
Chris Devenski: 2.76 / 0.85 : 4.19 / 1.19
Tony Sipp: 6.47 / 1.48 : 1.61 / 1.07

By Game 115 of the 2017 season, pitchers who are no longer on the active roster (Fiers, Musgrove, Gregerson, Feliz, Giles, Hoyt, Martes, Paulino, Dayan Diaz, Guduan) had thrown 479 IP. That's insane. A team that won the World Series shed 479 IPs through 115 games and got better. 

*The Astros have 11.2 fWAR currently on the DL.

*Hinch will go with a four-man rotation, thanks to the three days off in the next nine. Hinch:
We knew the off-days in August were going to be important. But never did we know that we were going to be talking about them being an advantage to maybe take a couple of games from a DL stint for a large number of our players. 

*Jake Kaplan discusses who might replace Lance McCullers in the rotation. So does Chandler Rome. Hinch:
Trying to get to September is key. There's only a couple starts before September, when we will have as many pitchers as we want to take the innings.

 *Josh James leads the leaderboard for FanGraphs' Triple-A pitching call-ups.

*SI's Ben Reiter with a story about which I'm sure you're not tired of hearing: How J.D. Martinez became the Astros' greatest mistake.

Sheryl Crow's "My Favorite Mistake" > J.D. Martinez

*FanGraphs' Sheryl Ring: Roberto Osuna, Immigration Law, and Crimes of Moral Turpitude

*The Astros have agreed to meet with "representatives of several organizations" that provide services to victims of domestic violence.

*Carlos Correa had a foul ball land in his fiancee's lap.

*Wanna see something crazy? On Tuesday, Buies Creek struck out 20 times...and won.

*Framber Valdez, who has struck out 120 batters in 94.1IP at Corpus, has been promoted to Fresno.

*Be sure to check the Masked Marvel's Reinforcing the Astros posts each morning, this morning's included.

*Former Astros Great Tim Federowicz signed a minor-league contract with Cincinnati after refusing a Triple-A assignment from the Astros.

*Oh man Future Astros Great Buddy Boshers was claimed off waivers by the Pirates, making the Astros' 40-Man Roster totally devoid of grown men answer to "Buddy."

*Carlos Beltran makes Tim Brown's list of the next wave of MLB managers.

*Please read my friend Levi Weaver's account of how Jeff Baker sprained his thumb during a high-five celebration for the Arlington Ramgers.

*Lookout Landing's Isabelle Minasian writes about the potential end of King Felix's reign in Seattle's rotation. I take no pleasure in linking to this, but it is well-written.

*From a couple of days ago, here's ESPN's Alden Gonzalez on how the shift ruined Albert Pujols.

*Sex Offender Luke Heimlich may or may not have signed with a team in Taiwan.

*Justin Verlander will go for Career Win #200 tonight against James Paxton, who is going for Win #200 against Houston.

*Watch Hero Home Plate Umpire Greg Gibson save Baseball from the temptations of exciting young player Juan Soto. Take a breath. Baseball lives another day.


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Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Maybe instead of getting that new Pressly shirsey, you give the money to the Houston Area Women's Center. 

*The Astros lost 2-0 to James F. Paxton. It's their 5th loss in a row, breaking the 2018 season-high record for consecutive losses, set on Sunday, and tied the day before. The Astros are officially in a slump. They're 67-41, three games up on the Mariners.

*Evan Gattis had a three-run homer wrap just foul, pretty indicative of the last week and a half of Astros baseball.

*James Paxton threw 7IP, 3H/0ER, 8K:0BB...and did it in just 82 pitches. He improves to 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA / 1.06 WHIP in his career against Houston. Astros players have hit three home runs off of him in 66 innings. George Springer hit all three, two of those led off the game.

*Ryan Pressly bounced back, getting four outs in 14 pitches.

*Gerrit Cole threw 6.2IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:2BB. He has thrown 6+ IP and recorded two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 22 starts. It's his 16th start of 8+ strikeouts.

*Gerrit Cole is 10-3. Cole, when taking the L: 19.2IP, 13H/5ER, 21K:7BB. The Astros have scored two runs when Cole's decision is a Loss.

*It's the 19th time Houston pitchers have held their opponents to four or fewer hits. They're now 16-3. In the three losses - two to Anaheim, one to Seattle - Houston scored a combined one run.

*Since the All-Star Break, Houston is 3-6 and hitting .190/.277/.325. They've been held to five or fewer hits in four of those nine games and are averaging 3.67 runs/game.


*Of course the big story of the day was the Astros' acquisition of the currently-suspended-for-domestic-violence Roberto Osuna, formerly of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros sent Ken Giles, Hector Perez, and David Paulino. I wrote about what we knew at approximately 5pm Central time yesterday regarding the Osuna case.

To put a footnote on it, I guess, I'd like to mention that you can't analyze this trade from a "purely baseball perspective," because without the information unrelated to baseball, there's no way this trade gets made. Toronto isn't trading Osuna from the vacuum of the baseball field. They're only trading him because of the domestic violence charge. Will his girlfriend drop the charges? Maybe! But that doesn't mean he didn't do whatever we don't know he did.

*Shoutout to Paul Gallant, here's why Canadian law makes it harder to find out what happened with Osuna.

*Toronto Sun: Osuna was ordered to stay "100 meters" away from the victim.

*Osuna will address the team in Los Angeles on Sunday.

*Check Brian McTaggart's piece on Osuna, with video from the clubhouse.


*Jenny Dial Creech: About that "zero-tolerance" (as long as the first instance is with somebody else) policy...

*SI's Emma Baccielleri: "It's easier to assign a dollar value to optics than to morals." Good-ass relievers currently facing charges of domestic violence are the new market inefficiency.

*Buster Olney:
No matter what comes to light with Osuna's history, the Astros have forfeited the right to be "disappointed" or "shocked" or "surprised" or "angered" or any other euphemism that teams tend to use when a player does something appalling. Houston has surrendered the high ground, aggressively. 

*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan with perhaps the Column of the Day:
As a baseball trade, there's enough here to be fascinating. But this isn't just a baseball trade...

 ...For the fans for whom it is more complicated, the Astros today have scored an own goal. They made a trade they didn't need to make for a player still looking ahead to a court date. The Astros know exactly what they're doing. That's kind of what makes this so difficult to stomach.

*Keith Law: Just because you throw baseballs good doesn't excuse domestic violence.

*Despite asking "several" members of the Astros for their thoughts on acquiring Osuna, we know that the Astros asked Altuve for his thoughts on acquiring Osuna. But Verlander, Correa, and McHugh said they weren't.

*The Astros tried to cut off questions after a positive baseball question regarding Osuna.

*Ken Rosenthal from 2016: Why do abusers get to play in the postseason and PED guys don't?

*The Ringer's Michael Baumann:
Using PEDs is a violation against the integrity of the game, of an entertainment concern. Striking a romantic partner, in addition to being a criminal offense, is a life-altering violation of trust for the third of American women and quarter of American men who have suffered intimate partner violence, and a violation unfathomable for those of us who have been fortunate enough not to have experienced it...Wanting to win so badly that you're willing to view a player's domestic violence suspension as a trade opportunity is a choice. 

*A.J. Hinch was thankful for Ken Giles last year. Hinch:
I don't know that we get to the World Series without him.

*The Masked Marvel wrote about how to improve the Astros, published shortly before the Osuna news. And has another post this morning.

*Carlos Correa, currently digging graves in Antarctica, is apparently headed on a rehab assignment soon! "Soon!" meaning 10 years after the earth crashes into the sun. Jake Kaplan says the absence of Correa AND Altuve leaves the Astros in uncharted territory.

*More Jake Kaplan! Jake Kaplan's history of the Randy Johnson trade.

*J.A. Tayler says the Ryan Pressly trade is sneaky good.

*J.B. Bukauskas and Seth Beer were promoted from Quad Cities to Buies Creek.

*2016 2nd Round pick Ronnie Dawson was promoted to Corpus.

*Recently DFA'd Tim Federowicz elected free agency over going back to Fresno.

*The Astros Foundation gave $75K to the Santa Fe Texas Education Foundation.

*Rustin Dodd on Brett Phillips' first 48 hours as a Royal.

*Sean Doolittle had a good thread.

*Now that they're on the cusp of their first playoff spot in 17 years, can the Mariners afford to give Felix the ball every five days?

*Yu Darvish clapped back at A-Rod.

*Lawson Craddock, Houston native, finished last in the 2018 Tour de France. Here's a fun story.
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Sunday, July 15, 2018

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Note: If you're reading this, I'm already dead. Yesterday morning was my daughter's birthday party. It was a Rainbow Unicorn party and I wore an Astros shirt, Astros flip-flops, and spray-painted my hair orange. She turned six earlier in the week, but I thought I might be able to sneak it in before having to run an insane amount of errands. No go. I'm going to leave what I had, as Astros County is the paper of record for the Houston Astros.

*The Astros whooped the Tigers for the second straight game with a 9-1 win yesterday afternoon. They are 64-34. Houston's 8-run margin is the largest margin of victory since the 11-3 win over Kansas City on June 24. The Astros have held the Tigers to one run over 18 innings. AL Central teams have scored 75 runs in 25 games against the Astros. Eighteen of those runs were scored by Cleveland  on May 26-27.

*Tigers starting pitcher Michael Fulmer said the strike zone yesterday was "god awful."

*Gerrit Cole needed 107 pitches to get 17 outs, allowing 3H/1ER, 8K:4BB. Cole has allowed 3+ BB in six of his last eight starts. Yeah but he has 8+ strikeouts in 14 of his 20 starts this season. Cole has 45 swinging strikes - 77 non-contact strikes - in his last two starts. That's insane.

*Chris Devenski threw 2IP, 0H/0ER, 2K:0BB. It's his 2nd six-out 0H/0ER/0BB outing of the year.

*Cionel Perez got the 9th and needed 10 pitches to get three groundball outs in a perfect outing. I have a Very Good Feeling about Cionel Perez, which makes me a scout now. He has Plus Facial Hair - seriously, the willingness to trot out in front of 35,000 people with that facial hair shows he has huevos.

*The Astros held Detroit to three hits. It's the 7th time this season Houston pitchers have held their opponent to three or fewer hits. Houston is 26-7 when holding their opponent to five or fewer hits.

*George Springer was 2x4 with an RBI double. He back. Springer has been on base twice in a game in four of his last six games (7x24, 1K:2BB). The double was his first extra-base hit since June 26. Springer hasn't hit a home run since June 20. It's 20 starts and counting since his last home run - a new career-high.

*Josh Reddick was 2x4 with a double and a home run. It's his 4th multi-XBH game of the season, and his 2nd in July.

*Evan Gattis broke an 0x20 slump with his 19th home run of the year. He's one away from his fifth 20HR season of his six-year career. I'll never understand how he got eleven triples in 2015.

*The Astros hit three home runs, including their 5th back-to-back set of the season. It's the 11th 3+ HR game of the year. They're 9-2 in those games.

*Alex Bregman was 1x2 with 2BB. He has nine 2BB games on the year.
Alex Bregman games with at least one walk: 46
Alex Bregman games with zero walks: 49

*Tim Federowicz went 1x4. True story: The Astros are 5-0 when Tim Roger Federerowicz gets a hit.

*Mike F. Fiers and Francisco Liriano got their World Series rings prior to the game.

*Chalk this up in the "I Wish I Wrote This" section: Jay Jaffe on How Ken Giles Became a Minor-Leaguer.

*Charlie F. Morton: All-Star pitcher, All-Star human. Hinch, via Jake Kaplan:
[Morton] genuinely was concerned about who the other snubs were. 'Who didn't get in? What was happening with Collin McHugh?' The mechanics of how he became an All-Star and if that cost somebody a spot. The guy is tremendous at pitching, but he's a tremendous human.

 CFM better never have to buy a drink in Houston and the surrounding areas for the rest of his life.


Three-fifths of the starting rotation is in the All-Star Game. The six All-Stars tie a franchise record, set last year. So, 12 All-Stars in two years. Houston had 13 All-Stars from 2008-2016.

2008: 2 - Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada
2009: 2 - Tejada, Hunter Pence
2010: 1 - Michael Bourn
2011: 1 - Pence
2012: 1 - Altuve
2013: 1 - Jason Castro
2014: 1 - Altuve
2015: 2 - Altuve, Keuchel
2016: 2 - Altuve, Will Harris

*Jose Altuve will bat 2nd in the All-Star Game on Tuesday, and Hinch is doing his due diligence on which of his guys should play and when, though he did say that all first-time All-Stars (Bregman, CFM included) will absolutely play. In there we also find that there's no real timetable for Correa to go on a rehab assignment.

*Billy Beane told Tim Kawakami that Oakland is preparing to be buyers at the deadline.

*Go visit Terry Puhl Drive in Melville, Saskatchewan. It's about 60 degrees cooler there than it is here.

*Congratulations to Justin Verlander, who successfully knocked up Kate Upton.

*Abraham Toro made FanGraphs' Fringe Five.

*The Rockies beat the Mariners, so the Astros' lead is at a season-high five games. The Mariners are 58-38 with a -1 run differential.

*For the 12th time this season, official attendance at Minute Maid was 40,000+.

*The Futures Game is today, featuring Yordan Alvarez. The Athletic's Cliff Corcoran looks back at 20 years of Futures Game data to try to predict what it tells us.

*SI's Jon Tayler: Has Chase Utley done enough to warrant a plaque in Cooperstown? Then read Jay Jaffe's piece. I say yes.

From 2005-2014 - a ten-year peak - Chase Utley put up 57.8 fWAR, just 0.2 fWAR behind Albert Pujols for the best of any position player in baseball. It's 16.7 fWAR better than the 2nd-best 2B over that span, Robinson Cano. Even accounting for the last two and a half seasons, Utley is 6.8 fWAR better than Cano. There's a point at which you have to recognize the best of a generation of baseball, and Chase Utley is among the best Second Basemen to play the game in the last 15 years.

*1954's West Germany v. Hungary: The most important soccer game ever played.
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Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Happy Independence Day. May your hot dogs be cooked thoroughly, your burgers slightly pink, your adult beverages refreshing, and your fingers remain firmly on your hand. Six years ago today Jeff Luhnow traded Carlos Lee.

The Astros did the Good Thing and beat the North Corsicana Rangers 5-3. It's the Astros' seventh straight win against the Rangers, 11-4 on the season (and that includes two extra-inning losses). Houston is 56-31, a half-game up on Seattle. Houston has won six of their last ten, 14 of 20, and 21 of their last 30. Their 21-9 record is tied for the best in MLB over 30 games...with Seattle.

*Rangers International Manbun of Mystery and God-awful spy Austin Bibens-Dirkx, the jackass, had a bad game, allowing 9H/5ER, with two home runs allowed and two HBPs: Max Stassi and George Springer. Hinch, on Stassi:
He just couldn't flex his hand. He had no mobility, so we took him out to go get him checked out by the doctors and all that stuff. So far, so good. I'll feel good when he can be mobile a little bit. He's pretty sore, but at least the first diagnosis is we avoided an injury that would really hurt us.

I'd imagine Tim Federowicz is in there tonight with Gattis as a backup. In the Hinch quote link we also find that McCann is likely out until September, which he'll use to rehab to get ready for October.

From Jake Kaplan: Why McCann's injury is unlikely to alter the Astros' trade deadline approach.

Worth noting: 25-year old Fresno catcher Garrett Stubbs (8th Round - 2015) is hitting .339/.404/.471 and has thrown out 13 of 29 would-be base-stealers in 2018.



*Rangers pitchers have hit an MLB-leading 47 batters this season. Bibens-Dirkx Bentley had two HBPs going into last night, and managed to double his total in a handful of innings. Rangers pitchers have hit seven Astros batters, one behind the Mariners and Angels. Astros pitchers have hit eleven Rangers batters. They've hit 22 batters not wearing Arlington laundry.

*Dallas Keuchel was back to his Old Self: 7IP, 5H/2ER, 7K:1BB. Keuchel threw a season-high 111 pitches. His 65 Game Score was his highest (via Baseball-Reference) since May 13 - also against the Rangers. Keuchel, in four starts against North Corsicana: 24.1IP, 28H/10ER, 22K:3BB. Keuchel was impressed with his breaking pitches early:
Both of those balls had good action and I knew from then on if I could establish the fastball in to the lefties, it would be a good day.

On the new episode of Lima Time Time, Patrick and I discussed pitch counts and the Astros. So to clear up some research, here are the Astros' pitchers with 100+ pitches thrown in a start:

99 or fewer pitches

 McCullers: 11
Morton: 10
Keuchel: 7
Verlander: 6
Cole: 4

100-109 pitches

 Keuchel: 10
Cole: 10
Verlander: 7
Morton: 7
McCullers: 6

110-119 pitches

 Verlander: 4
Cole: 3
Keuchel: 1

120-129 pitches

 Verlander: 1

Verlander's 122 pitches on June 19 are a season-high for the Astros. But Houston pitchers have thrown 38 starts - out of 87 (43.7%) - of fewer than 100 pitches.

*Josh Reddick hit his first home run since his 2HR game on April 21. From April 22 up to prior to last night's game, Reddick had hit .254/.312/.303.

*Tony Kemp hit a home run, the 3rd of his career and the 2nd of his season, a new season-high.

*The Astros have hit a home run in 23 consecutive road games, four shy of the MLB record set by Oakland earlier this season.

*George Springer was 1x3 with a walk, the first time Springer was on base twice in a game since June 22.

*Evan P. Grant: Another loss to the Astros reminds the Rangers of the long rebuild ahead.

*A.J. Reed was optioned back to Fresno after the Astros activated Joe Smith.

*Justin Verlander will pitch in the final game before the All-Star Break, against Detroit, and will likely not pitch in the All-Star Game.

*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan: Seattle is trying to be the clutchiest team in baseball.

*Or this, also from Jeff Sullivan: The Astros and the landscape of negative fWAR.

*From The Athletic: How advice from a cab driver saved Wade LeBlanc's career.

*For the second season in a row, Colby Rasmus has left his team to go home in the middle of the season.

*Cardinals GM John Mozeliak: kind of a douche about Dexter Fowler!

*Adult baby Radamel Falcao accused American referee Mark Geiger of favoring England in yesterday's PK win over Falcao's diving, fouling Colombia team.

I was born in England and so I have a soft spot in my head for the England national team. Back in 2010, when England and the US were in the same group, I had an existential crisis when they played each other but ultimately cheered for the USMNT. But since Jurgen Klinsmann and Bruce Arena combined to run a team with a pool of 330 million people into the ground that couldn't beat Trinidad & Tobago, I'm pulling for England this World Cup.
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Monday, June 11, 2018

Monday Morning Hot Links

What a crazy game. The Astros had a 6-run lead, Dallas Keuchel gave it back, then took a 7-6 lead, and Will Harris gave it back, and A.J. Hinch got the umpires to call a balk in the 9th inning, giving the Astros an 8-7 win and a four-game sweep of the North Waxahachie Rangers.

*The Astros are 42-25 and had never swept the Rangers in a four-game series before. The seven runs allowed are the most in an Astros win this season. It's the Astros' 4th 5-game winning streak of the season. Notably the Astros picked up a win in the Pythagorean Standings. Long since a -6 (expected record based on runs scored/runs allowed), the Astros' Pythag Record is currently 47-20.

To the balk:
With runners on second and third and the count 1-2 on the Astros' Evan Gattis, Kela made a quick pitch to Gattis that was called a ball. After he made the pitch, Hinch came out of the dugout to point out that the pitch was illegal and should have resulted in a balk. The umpires convened and agreed, calling a balk that allowed George Springer to score from third base. Rangers manager Jeff Banister then came out to argue and was ejected from the game.

The question is on Kela's delivery. Rule 8.01 says:
Pitchers may disengage the pitcher's plate after taking their signs but may not step quickly onto the pitcher's plate and pitch. This may be judged a quick pitch by the umpire. When the pitcher disengages the pitcher's plate, he/she must drop the hands to the sides...In disengaging the pitcher's plate, the pitcher must step off with the pivot foot and not the free foot first. The pitcher may not go into a set or stretch position. If the pitcher does, it is an illegal pitch [a balk]...

Banister:
The explanation was to me that (Kela) didn't tell anybody that he was going out of the windup...I've never seen a non-balk call turned over and called a balk. My argument was that I didn't know that we could come out and get the umpires to convene to try to see what everybody came up with. It's upsetting in a sense that you can't argue against a balk.

Hinch:
It's as clear as day what happened...It's an illegal pitch with a runner on third. Kela does that all the time with nobody on third. He was so focused on the hitter, he decided to go to a quick pitch, which you can't do. It's a balk. Once the umpires convened, they got the call right. 

Kela:
It's frustrating, but at the end of the day there are certain rules that are laid out and I have to abide by them. 

 Go back to June 18, 2015 to see the first time Kela lost a game on a balk.

*Keuchel had a miserable day: 4.1IP, 13H/6R (5ER), 3K:0BB, 1HBP. Twelve of those 13 hits were singles. And he's not real happy about those singles finding holes:
So maybe Max Stassi is giving the opponent signs, or maybe the fielders aren't doing their jobs? Which one is it, so I know who I can be proper mad at. Guess it's not Keuchel...

Keuchel's last three starts: 16IP, 27H/16ER, 13K:4BB.

It's the third time Keuchel has allowed 13 hits: April 21, 2016 at Arlington and July 4, 2014 at Anaheim. To say this is disappointing would be an understatement.

*Tony Sipp threw yet another scoreless inning. On May 7 at Oakland, Tony Sipp allowed 3H/1ER against a team that would go on to lose 16-2. His ERA was 5.68. Since then Sipp has rattled off eleven appearances: 8.1IP, 4H/0ER, 8K:3BB.

*Ken Giles' ERA is under 5.00! Kenneth threw 1.2 scoreless innings (2K:1BB) to lower his ERA to 4.98. In 24 of his appearances this season, Giles has pitched the 9th in 22 of them. He pitched the 8th against the White Sox back in April. The last time Giles came in for the 6th inning was May 3, 2016. Giles:
Doing my job, giving us a chance to win, whatever the cost may be. It was a step in the right direction. Keeping a positive mindset. I'm old enough to not put stress on myself. I enjoyed giving my team a chance to win. It all worked out.

*Will Harris has quietly been sucking. Harris, June: 3.1IP, 7H/4ER, 6K:1BB.

*Hector Rondon struck out the side to earn his 3rd save in five days. Rondon has made 27 appearances and has given up a run, earned or unearned, in four of them. He has 29K:5BB in 24IP.

*Yuli Gurriel was 4x5 with two doubles, a home run, and 2RBI. It's the first 3XBH game of his career.

*George Springer hit his 14th home run on the first pitch of the game, his 5th leadoff home run of the season, leading MLB.

*Six of the Astros' eight runs came with two outs in the inning.

*The Rangers got 16 hits, and lost. So let's run this back: On Saturday the Rangers got five hits, ten walks, five hit batters, one reached on an error, and lost. Sunday the Rangers get 16 hits and three walks and lose. It's the 11th time the Astros have allowed 10+ hits. Houston is 4-7 in those games.

*The Astros have been tied for 1st or out of 1st place in the division following 30 games this season. They've been in 1st place for 55 days (including off-days). The 2017 Astros were tied or out of 1st place in the division for seven games, the last of those on April 12.

Off-Day Playoff Odds Check

 -FanGraphs (102-60): 95.4% to win the AL West, 99.6% to make the playoffs, 34.7% to win the Pennant, 24.2% to win the World Series. Worth mentioning that the Astros have the weakest strength of schedule of the AL West teams.
-FiveThirtyEight (102-60): 82% to win the AL West, 96% to make the playoffs, 21% to win the World Series.
-Baseball Prospectus (98-64): 86.2% to win the AL West, 98.2% to make the playoffs, 16% to win the World Series.

All three forecasting models have the Mariners at 88-90 wins on the season.

*Joe Smith was put on the 10-Day DL with a sore elbow, for which he'll be checked out by team doctors in Houston today. Reymin Guduan was called up from Fresno. Hinch, on Smith:
It wasn't bad, and then it felt a little better, then it felt a little worse. Then it got to the point where we weren't going to use him again today. You're starting to talk about four and five days off.

In that link we find that Correa should be back on Tuesday.

*The Mariners won another 1-run game against Tampa Bay to improve to 21-9 in 1-run games. They're 17 games over .500 with a run differential of +20. In seven games with Tampa Bay the Mariners are 6-1, outscoring them 26-23. Their next 13 games are vs Anaheim (3), vs Boston (4), at New York (3), at Boston (3). The Astros and Mariners will play each other 13 more times in 2018.

*Tim Federowicz cleared waivers and has accepted an assignment to Triple-A Fresno.

*Here's a cool story about Alex Bregman's friendship with indie baller Tyler Straub.

*Fresno had an 11-2 lead before things got a little interesting but ultimately led to a 12-8 win over Oklahoma City. A.J. Reed hit two home runs and drove in six while Kyle Tucker, J.D. Davis, and Derek Fisher all hit long balls. Tyler White and Garrett Stubbs each had three hits.

*Fresno pitcher Jacob Dorris was released. Dorris was signed as an undrafted free agent after the 2015 draft and got all the way to Triple-A. He impressed A.J. Hinch in Spring Training this year:
He's a good story for the minor league camp that anything's possible. He hasn't been a top prospect, he wasn't a high pick, he wasn't handed anything, he just performed his way to big league camp.

*Randy Cesar was 2x3 with a walk to extend his hitting streak to 32 games in an 8-2 Corpus win over San Antonio. Former Astros Great Jacob Nix (a casualty in the Brady Aiken fiasco) threw 5.1IP, 2H/1ER, 4K:5BB.

*Esquire: How marijuana turned me into a monster marathoner, but not invincible.

*GQ: The untold story of Kim Jong-Nam's assassination.
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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

I don't know, folks, I think that the extra five innings the bullpen had to throw on Sunday because Giles/Harris/Rondon/Randazzo couldn't hold a five-run lead in the 9th is starting to have some effects. Astros take a 5-3 lead into the 9th, and leave with a 6-5 loss in the 10th.

*Cavs-Warriors for the 4th time. Did some looking at the behest of a friend. The Yankees and Dodgers played each other in the World Series four times in five seasons from 1952-1956, but - as far as I can tell - no two teams have faced each other four seasons in a row in the World Series. Anyone that tells you that the 1950s were the Golden Age of Baseball is from New York. Baseball pretty much sucked if you weren't a Yankees/Dodgers/Giants fan.

*Oh yeah, the Astros. They lost. The Yankees committed five errors. The Astros were 3x17 w/Runners in Scoring Position. 6-9 in the lineup (Davis/Marisnick, Marwin, Stassi, Kemp) were a combined 1x8 w/RISP. Marwin had the lone hit w/RISP from that stretch of the lineup, and it resulted in two runs.

*Yankee bullpen: 4IP, 2H/0ER, 6K:3BB
Astros bullpen: 3.2IP, 6H/3ER, 7K:1BB

*Hinch:
We had a tough time finishing a few hitters that paid off big for them. Obviously, our bullpen has been beat up a little bit. We had a number of guys we weren't going to use tonight. That was changing as the game was going. We feel it a little bit on a night like this, where a leadoff walk ends up coming back and scoring on a home run, or a two-strike double that leads to another expanded opportunity with Torres at the end.

*The Astros are 34-3 when leading after the 8th inning. They were 33-1 after Saturday's game.

*Thanks to Brian McTaggart, I can safely tell you that it's the 6th time in franchise history that the Astros have lost a game in which their opponent committed five or more errors. The last time was June 12, 1993 when the Rockies committed five errors and still won 14-11.

*Charlie Morton: 6IP, 8H/3ER, 10K:1BB, 2HR. It's the 3rd 2HR game Morton has allowed this season. It's the 4th 10+ strikeout game he's thrown this season.

Charlie Morton 10+ strikeout games, 2008-2016: 1 (161 starts)
Charlie Morton 10+ strikeout games, 2017-2018: 7 (35 starts)

*Joe Smith, May 2018: 8IP, 2H/1ER, 8K:1BB. This is probably more what the Astros had in mind when they signed him than Smith's April 2018: 8.1IP, 10H/8ER, 9K:3BB.

*Chris Devenski allowed the game-tying home run to Brett Gardner after walking the leadoff hitter.
The walk is what killed me. That walk is unacceptable in that situation, it caused a lot of damage there. 

*Brad Peacock has now pitched on May 26, May 27, and May 29. Those three games: 3IP, 4H/3ER, 2K:2BB. Peacock has allowed a run in three consecutive games, after having thrown a scoreless outing in 16 of his previous 18 appearances in 2018.

*Brett Gardner - who has the facial features of a thumb - was 4x5 with 3RBI, all of which came on home runs including the game-tying home run in the 9th. Gardner:
Any time you make five errors and can hang around and sneak away with a win, you'll take it.

*Every Yankee in the lineup struck out at least once, racking up 17 on the night. So this team committed five errors, struck out 17 times, and still won. Baseball is, occasionally, very stupid. For instance, the 10th inning:


*The Yankees have five wins when trailing entering the 9th - the most in MLB.

*Evan Gattis, May: .283/.348/.633. After having drawn one walk in 22 games from April 22-May 25, Gattis has drawn four walks in his last four games.

*The Astros placed Brian McCann on the DL with right knee soreness and called up Fresno catcher Tim Federowicz. McCann is back in Houston to be evaluated by team doctors. Hinch:
It just developed over the course of the game. It's something that he's battled before and something that he's had to deal with, and as we talked to him after the game, we felt like we needed to send him back to Houston to get him evaluated further. We won't know the extent of any sort of issue until he gets to Houston.

After 16 games McCann was hitting .306/.443/.469. In his 21 games since he's hitting .154/.200/.262/, and was dealing with a 1x26 slump.

FACT: It is far more satisfying to pronounce "Federowicz" as though you are a Bond villain:
FEHD-URR-ROE-VITCH. (Ed. Note: This is more satisfying if you're drinking out of an oaken bucket of vodka)

*Jon Paul Morosi has a fascinating interview with Justin Verlander, who thought his career (Verlander, not Morosi's, though...) was over four years ago, after the first inning of an August 2014 start in Pittsburgh. Stay for the part about how long he wants to pitch, his role as a mentor, and also his "body reclamation project." Verlander:
I've been part of some pretty special staffs. It's fun with a group of guys that's as tight as we are. We all love our craft. We all love pitching. Talking with these guys, watching their success on the mound, watching Gerrit's transformation and whatever small part I had in that...it's a good feeling. It's just fun.

 *Jake Kaplan: How Charlie Morton has found success by getting away from his signature pitch.

 *Astros #7 prospect Jorge Alcala has been promoted from Buies Creek to Corpus. In 38.2IP at High-A Alcala has allowed 25H/13ER, 45K:18BB. Tyler Ivey (3rd Round - 2017) has gone from Quad Cities to Buies Creek. Ivey had allowed 36H/16ER, 53K:8BB in 41.2IP.

*Friday pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole v Chris Sale. Saturday matchup: Justin Verlander v David Price.

*In The Athletic, how a "country lawyer" in Mt. Pleasant, Texas turned Michael Kopech into a future superstar.

*Seeing as how it's been 1939 years and that is definitely out of the Too Soon Statute of Limitations, I low-key laughed all day at this headline and the corresponding picture.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

The first day of the Winter Meetings is in the books. Let's see what did and didn't happen:

*The Astros are looking to add two arms to the bullpen. Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard and Francisco Liriano account for 89.1IP in 2017 - of course the majority of which were Gregerson's IPs. Luhnow:
At this point, it's a lot of feeling each other out and trying to see where the market is going on some of the players we're interested in. I think it will be a productive three days. Even if we don't get a deal done while we're here, we're certainly going to put ourselves in a spot where we'll have an opportunity to potentially (do so) after. I'm optimistic we're going to do something to improve the club while we're here or shortly thereafter.

We find in McTaggart's link that the Astros did offer a contract to Mike Minor, but the Rangers gave him the opportunity to start.

*With Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton's contracts set to expire following the 2018 season, the Astros could look into adding a starter. Here's a non-quote from Luhnow:
I think the reality is if we're going to improve our rotation, it's going to have to be somebody that's better than what we have, and we've got a pretty good rotation penciled out for next year. So we're not going to be looking at fourth and fifth starters. We're probably looking at something north of that. There's not a big population (of available starters who fit that criteria), but we'll probably touch base with maybe not all of them but some of them.

More Luhnow:
Typically the ones that we like require much more significant commitments and we're not sure that's the best path for us to take right now.

*Ken Rosenthal writes in the (subscription-only) Athletic that the Astros have shown interest in Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, which would be, uh, interesting.

*Jon Heyman used pretty much all 280 of his characters and said that the Astros never came very close but did try on Giancarlo Stanton.

*Jerry Crasnick notes that Marwin Gonzalez - a free agent following 2018 - has also hired Scott Boras as his agent. Stros looking to get PAID.

*An anonymous Astros player told Sports Illustrated how they knew Yu Darvish was going to his slider before he threw it:
The players said it worked like this: Darvish holds the ball at his side when he gets the sign from the catcher. Whether he re-grips or not as he brings the ball into his glove was the tip-off whether he was going to throw a slider/cutter or a fastball.

*Did the acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton change the Rays' mindset? Maybe Chris Archer is available (for a steep price).

*The Astros signed catcher Tim Federowicz and reliever Matt Ramsey to minor-league deals with an invitation to Spring Training.

Federowicz, a 30-year old catcher, was the Red Sox' 7th Round pick in the 2008 draft. In 403 games at Triple-A, Federowicz has a .304/.374/.503 slash line. Federowicz was part of the three-team trade at the 2011 deadline that saw him get sent to the Dodgers while the Mariners sent former Astros great Erik Bedard and Astros World Series Hero Josh Fields to the Red Sox. Then in December 2014 he was part of the trade that sent Matt Kemp to the Dodgers and Yasmani Grandal to the Padres.

Matt Ramsey, a 5'11 205lb, 28-year old RHP, posted a 3.65 ERA/1.35 WHIP for Double-A Biloxi in 2017 with 58K in 44.1IP. In his five-year minor-league career Ramsey has 239 strikeouts in 198IP. He did hit Triple-A briefly in Colorado Springs (5.1IP), but that's been it so far.

*Kate Upton had a whole bunch of details I don't really understand for Vogue about The Wedding. Except cornhole, I know that. And the Uplander Games sounds legit.

*Red Sox GM(?) Dave Dombrowski:
If we can get better, we're going to do that. But it's really not based on the Stanton move. We're not changing based upon that. It was already our plan to get better. We not only have to beat the Yankees, we have to beat the Astros, world champs, because our goal is to not only win our division but to be the world champs.

 Pretty much never going to get old seeing "Astros, world champs" in a row.

*A RUSH OF BLOOD TO THE HEAD: Rangers sign Chris Martin.

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