Thursday Morning Hot Links

The last 9pm start is on August 24. There are four more off-days between this morning and the end of the regular season. That's crazy.

*2018 Record: 73-42

*2017 Record: 71-44

Houston has a 5-game lead on Oakland and an 8-game lead on Seattle, who are now 15 games over .500 with a -29 run differential.

Playoff Odds Check

FanGraphs (103-59): 98.3% to win division, 99.6% to make playoffs, 23.6% to win World Series
FiveThirtyEight (102-60): 95% to win division, >99% to make playoffs, 20% to win World Series
Baseball Prospectus: (102-60): 96.3% to win division, 99.9% to make playoffs, 16% to win World Series

-A couple of notes here: FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox a higher percentage of winning the World Series. Baseball Prospectus hadn't updated since yesterday morning.

*Houston is +450 to win the World Series again, slightly behind the Vegas' favorite Red Sox, at +400.

*Change in OPS through 115 games, 2017 to 2018:

Alex Bregman: + .065 (.835 to .900)
Evan Gattis: -.020 (.820 to .800)

Yuli Gurriel: -.087 (.803 to .716)

Josh Reddick: -.095 (.830 to .735)

Brian McCann: -.115 (.721 to .606)
Jose Altuve: -.134 (.991 to .857)

Carlos Correa: -.134 (.966 to .832)
Jake Marisnick: -.156 (.830 to .674)

George Springer: -.198 (.970 to .772)

Marwin Gonzalez: -.255 (.962 to .707)

I'm going to cherry-pick a stat here, but Jake Marisnick - May 24-August 7 (97 PAs): .282/.371/.529.

Jake Marisnick, June 1 - present:   .303/.410/.576
George Springer, June 1 - present: .214/.326/.383

ERA/WHIP through 115 games, 2017 to 2018:

Dallas Keuchel: 2.87 / 1.11 : 3.53 / 1.24

Lance McCullers: 3.92 / 1.29 : 3.93 / 1.19

Charlie Morton: 3.83 / 1.25 : 2.81 / 1.14

Brad Peacock: 3.07 / 1.26 : 2.96 / 0.97

Will Harris: 2.86 / 0.95 : 4.24 / 1.22

Collin McHugh: 5.32 / 1.36 : 1.00 / 0.72

Chris Devenski: 2.76 / 0.85 : 4.19 / 1.19

Tony Sipp: 6.47 / 1.48 : 1.61 / 1.07

By Game 115 of the 2017 season, pitchers who are no longer on the active roster (Fiers, Musgrove, Gregerson, Feliz, Giles, Hoyt, Martes, Paulino, Dayan Diaz, Guduan) had thrown 479 IP. That's insane. A team that won the World Series shed 479 IPs through 115 games and got better. 

*The Astros have 11.2 fWAR currently on the DL.

*Hinch will go with a four-man rotation, thanks to the three days off in the next nine. Hinch:
We knew the off-days in August were going to be important. But never did we know that we were going to be talking about them being an advantage to maybe take a couple of games from a DL stint for a large number of our players. 

*Jake Kaplan discusses who might replace Lance McCullers in the rotation. So does Chandler Rome. Hinch:
Trying to get to September is key. There's only a couple starts before September, when we will have as many pitchers as we want to take the innings.

*Josh James leads the leaderboard for FanGraphs' Triple-A pitching call-ups.

*SI's Ben Reiter with a story about which I'm sure you're not tired of hearing: How J.D. Martinez became the Astros' greatest mistake.

Sheryl Crow's "My Favorite Mistake" > J.D. Martinez

*FanGraphs' Sheryl Ring: Roberto Osuna, Immigration Law, and Crimes of Moral Turpitude

*The Astros have agreed to meet with "representatives of several organizations" that provide services to victims of domestic violence.

*Carlos Correa had a foul ball land in his fiancee's lap.

*Wanna see something crazy? On Tuesday, Buies Creek struck out 20 times...and won.

*Framber Valdez, who has struck out 120 batters in 94.1IP at Corpus, has been promoted to Fresno.

*Be sure to check the Masked Marvel's Reinforcing the Astros posts each morning, this morning's included.

*Former Astros Great Tim Federowicz signed a minor-league contract with Cincinnati after refusing a Triple-A assignment from the Astros.

*Oh man Future Astros Great Buddy Boshers was claimed off waivers by the Pirates, making the Astros' 40-Man Roster totally devoid of grown men answer to "Buddy."

*Carlos Beltran makes Tim Brown's list of the next wave of MLB managers.

*Please read my friend Levi Weaver's account of how Jeff Baker sprained his thumb during a high-five celebration for the Arlington Ramgers.

*Lookout Landing's Isabelle Minasian writes about the potential end of King Felix's reign in Seattle's rotation. I take no pleasure in linking to this, but it is well-written.

*From a couple of days ago, here's ESPN's Alden Gonzalez on how the shift ruined Albert Pujols.

*Sex Offender Luke Heimlich may or may not have signed with a team in Taiwan.

*Justin Verlander will go for Career Win #200 tonight against James Paxton, who is going for Win #200 against Houston.

*Watch Hero Home Plate Umpire Greg Gibson save Baseball from the temptations of exciting young player Juan Soto. Take a breath. Baseball lives another day.

Juan Soto ejected. Didn’t do a whole lot. pic.twitter.com/H3E5Go1OmF

— Rudy Gersten (@DCBarno) August 9, 2018

With our next homestand on deck, today’s #DK60 moment shares a clip of insight into preparation and approach. As the old saying goes we are in the #DogDaysofSummer ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/NFNFxiyenr

— Dallas Keuchel (@kidkeuchy) August 9, 2018

Monday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros had baserunners all game long and couldn't push enough of them across including a repeat of Friday night when the potential tying run got thrown out at home. Also Xander Bogaerts had two home runs entering last night's game, and so of course he hit two home runs last night. Frustrating game. The Astros had 14 hits (three doubles, three home runs) and six walks but were 3x15 w/RISP and left 13 on base.

*The 14 hits were the most for the Astros in a loss this season. They're 28-7 when getting 10+ hits in a game this season and are 9-2 when hitting 3+ home runs in a game. The Astros are 4-8 since the 11-game winning streak.

*Derek Fisher was thrown out at second to end the game. Hinch:
Took a perfect throw in a perfect spot to throw him out. It's a risk you're going to take (vs. Kimbrel)

The Astros are now 34-for-51 on stolen bases, a 66.7% success rate that ranks 24th in MLB. The only teams with a lower SB% are Oakland (64.7%), Philadelphia (64.3%), Chicago White Sox (58.7%), Pittsburgh (57.4%), Detroit (56.1%), and Colorado (53.5%). The Astros' success rate seems low for a team full of fast guys.

George Springer is 0-for-3 on stolen base attempts and has been thrown out in 13 of his last 22 attempts dating back to the beginning of the 2016 season. He hasn't successfully stolen a base since August 30, 2016.

*Hinch:
You look up and down the order and we had a tremendous amount of good at-bats. Maybe not at the right time when we needed it the most, but even some of those we didn't come through with runners in scoring position were pretty good at-bats. 

*Joe Musgrove was shooting for 100 pitches - he threw 90, allowing 5ER (3ER on two home runs) - the third time this season he has allowed 2HR and his third 5ER start of the season. He didn't pitch poorly.

*Yuli Gurriel was thrown out of the game after arguing about a strikeout. Hinch:
It sucks when it doesn't go your way and you feel you have to cover more than the allotted plate. 

what's silly is we have the technology for robot umpires and we don't use it pic.twitter.com/rbpK1UxMEf

— Dave Lozo (@davelozo) June 19, 2017

*Dustin Pedroia left MMP to go to the hospital for X-Rays after James Hoyt hit him in the ribs, right after hitting Mookie Betts.

*Jake Marisnick hit a 454-foot home run, his 8th of the season and is one HR shy of tying his career-high. Marisnick has hit 30.8% of his career home runs in 9.1% of his career plate appearances (104 this season).

*Since Opening Day 2014, Jose Altuve leads MLB with a .331 average (min. 1500 PAs). Miguel Cabrera is 2nd at .316.

*At 46-24 here are the Monday Morning Playoff Odds:
FanGraphs: 99.0% to win the division, 99.8% to make the playoffs
Baseball Prospectus: 97.9% to win the division, 99.7% to make the playoffs
FiveThirtyEight: 92% to win the division, 98% to make the playoffs

*Hinch provided updates on four injured starting pitchers:
Keuchel: Playing catch for the first time tomorrow
McCullers: Bullpen today or tomorrow, could return to the rotation against Seattle this weekend
Morton: Looking at a rehab start Thursday in Fresno
McHugh: Will fly today to West Palm Beach to essentially begin a Spring Training

*Brian McCann changed his swing this past offseason

*The Mariners will activate Felix Hernandez from the DL in time for him to face the Astros on Friday.

*Rogelio Armenteros threw four perfect innings in relief for Corpus yesterday, striking out three in a 2-1 Hooks loss. In 60.1IP this season, Armenteros has allowed 39H/11ER with 69K:19BB - a 1.64 ERA/0.96 WHIP.

*Mack Hayes, of "Go Go Astros" fame, is still going strong.

*Spiritualized, The Verve, and 1997's Biggest Secret Love Triangle