The Braves are currently destroying the Astros

Over at Osceola County Stadium, the Braves are whooping the dog nuts out of the Astros. It's a slow news day, and I don't feel like writing about Dr. Michael Brown and Rachel Brown/Jeff Bagwell.

So what the hell is happening in Kissimmee? Well, at least the Braves made six outs. But before doing that, they scored 11 runs on 11 hits in 17 ABs with one strike out (Jordan Schafer) and two walks.

Jordan Lyles' day is done, and his line: 0.2IP, 7H/6ER, HR (25.20 ERA for the Spring)
Sam Demel's day is done, and his line: 0.2IP, 3H/5ER, 0K:2BB (42.43 ERA for the Spring)

The only funny thing at all is that apparently Alan Ashby and Geoff Blum are making fun of Jordan Schafer, for making three of the Braves' six outs.

UPDATE: Not content to let Lyles and Demel have all the fun of not getting outs, Wesley Wright has allowed 3H/3ER, 1K:1BB in 0.2IP. So that's five pitchers in three innings, and no one getting three outs. 

Ryan-Sanders group not selling Corpus Christi Hooks

Our buddy Greg Rajan just tweeted out the following, regarding the Ryan-Sanders Group and their ownership of the Corpus Christi Hooks:

Regarding #Astros interest in moving affiliate(s) closer to Houston,#cchooks CEO Reid Ryan says Ryan-Sanders has no intention to sell.

There's a story coming on Caller.com soon. When it posts, we'll link to it.

Update from Rajan:

#cchooks have seven years left on Whataburger Field lease and Ryans have development interests around ballpark, so move makes no sense.

The Astros are losing their Title flags

I'm trying really hard. I am. I'm trying really hard not to get pissed off about every little thing. But KHOU's Daniel Gotera tweeted out this picture this morning:

What is that, you ask? Those are the flags that hung on the wall of Minute Maid Park announcing the various division titles, the 2005 NL Pennant, etc. On the back of a truck. Being carried away.

Now here's what I'm hoping, and I'll refrain from throwing this wax sculpture of Bud Selig into a furnace until I get verification: I'm hoping that they're going away, and coming back with the new color scheme.

UPDATE: Good news! They're just being re-branded. 

Harrell has minor groin injury

Lucas Harrell will miss his scheduled start today against the Braves, thanks to a "minor right groin injury," according to Brian Smith. Steve Sparks says it's not serious (how's that for alliteration?).

OKC fans aren't very happy with Jim Crane right now

Another day, another set of people Jim Crane is pissing off. While you, Texas-based fan, may be excited about the Astros moving a minor-league franchise to a town near you, that means OKC residents aren't so excited about the possibility of losing their team.

One OKC resident/baseball fan:
"That would be the biggest mistake if he ever did that."

But here's the thing. The Astros have to either own a team or coerce another owner to move their team to The Woodlands (or wherever). Mandalay Baseball Properties owns the Oklahoma City RedHawks. And, from Crane's comments yesterday regarding the Ryan-Sanders Group owning the Hooks, I wonder if Crane/Astros are looking to buy their own Triple-A franchise.

OKC fans don't really need to worry about losing baseball, either. The PDC (Professional Development Contract) the Astros signed with OKC last fall runs through 2014. Bricktown is such a great park/location/facility that some team is going to sign up with them should the Astros leave.

Astros might move Triple-A team to The Woodlands

In a remarkable turn, Jim Crane told Brian Smith that the Astros are entertaining the idea of moving the Triple-A franchise to The Woodlands.

Crane:
"Something north of the Woodlands would definitely work. When we were in Austin with the Triple-A, we got a lot of bang for our buck and the most for our TV market. Unfortunately, we’re not there.”

And, oooh, here's more from Crane about the Nolan Ryan (group)-owned Corpus Christi Hooks:
“That’s not necessarily the way we like to see that.” 

Click the link, because there's an awful lot to unpack here.

First, The Woodlands as a possibility for the Triple-A team is interesting simply because Drayton seemed to go out of his way to avoid that. Remember back in 2011 when Drayton vetoed a minor-league team in Sugar Land (paving the way for the Skeeters - who had two, TWO, nationally televised games to the Astros' zero nationally televised games).

Here's what we wrote at the time (link above):
This is tremendously short-sighted. It takes 48 minutes to drive from the Ballpark in Arlington to Frisco, TX. It's 46 minutes from Turner Field to Gwinnett, GA - home of the Braves' Triple-A affiliate. It's 39 minutes from Camden Yards to Bowie, MD - home of the Orioles' Double-A affiliate - and 44 minutes to Aberdeen, MD, where the Orioles have their NYPL short-season team.

Hurt attendance? If your favorite prospect was playing 45 minutes down the road, and climbed the ladder to Minute Maid, wouldn't you check out the guys you're invested in? Chalk it up, Drayton. Another fantastic idea. 

Second, it would seem that Crane is leaning towards not bringing Nolan Ryan back (at this moment), as the idea of the Astros' Double-A team being owned by Nolan Ryan isn't something he likes to see. It's a valid point. The part-owner and CEO (even one whose official capacity is somewhat up in the air) of your new division rival owns your Double-A team? I wouldn't like it much, either.

But the Astros desperately need a south Texas presence, what with the Rangers thinking they're hot crap, and whatnot and making inroads across the state (not to mention that everyone who has cable gets Fox Sports Southwest and CSN Houston?...oh yeah). So they'll need to keep something in Corpus...right?


Thoughts?

The Astros and Nolan Ryan

Given all the hand-wringing in the Metroplex over the Nolan Ryan saga, there are a few pieces out in the last few hours that say the Astros should bring the Ryan Express back to Houston. Regard:

ESPN's Johnette Howard:

Besides, the Astros are so adrift that fixing them is a huge job for just one man. They've gotten big and small things wrong for years on the field and in the community. It's almost incomprehensible to read that in this day and age, even their local TV coverage stinks. Their games are on TV only about 40 percent of the time...Ryan would know how to handle that.

ESPNDallas' Richard Durrett:

The last thing this ownership group should want is for Ryan to leave. I say that not only because of the public relations nightmare but also because Ryan still has value. Just because Daniels is the guy running the day-to-day activities of baseball operations doesn't mean Ryan doesn't matter.

ESPNDallas' Jean-Jaques Taylor:

And if you have to choose between having a terrific 66-year-old or a terrific 35-year-old guy run an organization, you should bet on youth every time.

And Jose de Jesus Ortiz brought some noise:

With a major league record seven no-hitters and toughness that embodies Texas and gritty Houston, Ryan is arguably the greatest name in Astros history. If the Rangers are silly enough to let him walk away, the Ryan Express needs to park at Minute Maid Park forever.

I'm still figuring out how I feel about this. Your thoughts? 

Rotation Update

Brian Smith had some updates on the set up of the rotation for 2013 (all links via Twitter):



*Bo Porter will determine SP1 towards the end of Spring Training (of course, either Harrell or Norris).
*One determination is Norris' strength at home vs. away.

Which is totally valid. On the road in 2012, Norris allowed an .889 OPS-against (.293/.379/.509), and just a .557 OPS-against at Minute Maid Park. Harrell had a much more manageable .713 road OPS-against in 2012, and a .663 home OPS-against. This is notable, as SP1 would get two home starts to start the season, and SP2 would get the first road game of the season at Seattle on April 8. 

*Porter said that Humber is clearly working his way into the rotation, but...
*The 3-4-5 spots have yet to be determined.
*Porter has also talked to the pitching staff about "picking up the pace," thinking that it could be leading to poor fielding. 

Erik Bedard's strained butt muscle: Impact, and you

As mentioned yesterday, Erik Bedard has a strained right gluteal muscle, which is DOCTORCODE for "he strained the right side of his ass."

But Bedard isn't being cheeky about it, it's happened before - in 2008, as Brian Smith let everyone know this morning. So what does that mean for the Astros?

Maybe not so much. In Bedard's first five starts in 2008 after injuring said buttock, he threw 31.2IP, allowing 20H/7ER, 25K:14BB for a .583 OPS-against and a .184 BABIP. He had two disaster starts in his next three (2IP, 6ER at Texas and 4.1IP, 9ER at New York), but he made every start through July 4. After that July 4 start, Bedard complained of shoulder stiffness and missed the rest of the season.

But this is a recurring theme for Bedard and his career - be somewhat effective, get hurt, miss a bunch of time. At least initially however, Bedard's derriere wasn't a problem early in the season.

Historical WAR Races

Perusing Fangraphs, I uncovered some interesting WAR races worth paying attention to over the next couple years.

Astros Catchers v. Jeff Bagwell

According to Fangraphs, Jeff Bagwell was worth 83.9 WAR over the course of his career. Astros (and Colt .45's) Catchers, from 1962-2012, have totaled 72.1. We've already looked at the challenges the Astros catcher position has had over the last 10 years, but there is some hope on the horizon. And, Bagwell is at least not currently padding his lead. Still 11+ WAR is a lot of ground to cover. Barring a sudden MVP level explosion from Jason Castro, this will take several years.

ETA -  2019 - After several good years from Jason Castro, Max Stassi takes over the position full time in 2016. Entering his age 28 season, Astros catchers find themselves less than 2 WAR behind Bagwell. Stassi, and occasional injury replacement and backup catcher Carlos Perez, blow by this, with all star level production. Astros catchers end the year with 4+ WAR, and never look back.

Astros Shortstops v. Craig Biggio

A similar story exists with Astros Shortstops and Craig Biggio. Biggio currently leads 50 years of Astros Shortstops 70.5 to 65.1. Astros County patron saint Dickie Thon has done his part, but after that, its pretty bleak. To put it in perspective, by fWAR, Jed Lowrie is the 10th best Astros shortstop of all time. But the current gap is only 5. And the shortstop cavalry is on its way. Expect this race to be over before the catcher position.

ETA - 2016 - No significant progress is made in 2013 and 2014, but a large chunk is taken out in 2015, as Nolan Fontana mans the position for a year and puts up a 2.5 WAR based on his .400+ on base percentage and fielding skills. Then, at the tender age of 21, Carlos Correa takes over and never lets go. He blows by the 2.5 mark necessary for the shortstops to pass Biggio in his rookie season, and starts to put some real distance in subsequent years. Its not long before Dickie Thon is forever known as the second greatest shortstop in Astros history.

I'd love to hear your predictions in the comments.

State of the Astros' Spring Training

We have arrived at the first scheduled off-day of the Astros' Spring Training. What do we know so far?

*Bo Porter won't take any crap. We know about the practice celebrations, his doghouse, about how he pretty much hates the Astros' defense, and how he's a BAWSE, in general. Will this translate into wins? I don't know if you remember this Zachary Levine tweet from Feb. 29, 2012, but I doubt Bo Porter will be making any Curly noises this Spring Training.

*The Crawfish Boxes covered this the other day, but you can tell who is catching the team's eye by the number of ABs getting spread around. Your AB leaders thus far are Chris Carter (22 ABs), J.D. Martinez (20 ABs), and Jonathan Villar (20 ABs). No one with a realistic shot to earn a 25-Man spot has more than 10 ABs (though two of George Springer's four hits have gone yard.)

*Likewise, with pitching. Harrell, Cosart, and Humber/Norris/Oberholtzer are your IP leaders. Brad Peacock and John Ely have had a rough go of it, each with a 12.27 ERA in 3.2IP. Peacock have each allowed 6H/5ER, with Ely walking three batters.

*But here's the thing about Spring Training stats: they don't matter. Everyone's working playing around with adding a pitch, or their location, or their timing. I put absolutely zero stock in Spring Training stats because there are so many variables, and we don't know exactly what Porter has told everyone to work on. At the end of Spring Training, Astros County will unveil the 4th Annual Taylor Buchholz Pitcher of the Spring/J.R. Towles Hitter of the Spring awards. That should tell you everything you need to know about Spring Training stats.

*What I am concerned about is dudes not getting injured. Remember when Jason Castro jacked up his knee (which he may or may not still be recovering from - terrible grammatical effort) trying to avoid a tag in a stupid Spring Training game against the Tigers? If we can avoid that, great.

Weighing Kyle Lohse*

* Not literally. Although, according to Baseball Reference, he is approximately 210 pounds.

A pitcher who goes 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA, picks up enough Cy Young votes to finish 7th in the voting, and becomes a free agent could expect to get very rich. But Kyle Lohse is still looking for work with a month before the season starts. The reason is the compensation system in the CBA, which would cause any team which signs Lohse to lose a draft pick.A team picking in the top 10 of the draft, like the Astros, loses their second round pick. All others lose their first. Seems like teams are not willing to take that chance on Lohse. 

With that compensation system in mind, does it make sense for the Astros to pursue Lohse for a one or two year contract, with the understanding that they will trade him to a contender mid-season?  I have seen no report, speculation or rumor that this on the table, so this is more of a thought exercise. 

My first inclination is no way. The Astros rebuilding model is contingent on young talent, and losing a draft pick, along with the money that accompanies that pick, seems counterproductive. But we have also seen what Luhnow has done in trades, and if Lohse even comes close to pitching like he did last season, he could be a hot commodity for contending teams at the trade deadline. The question is, are the Astros likely to get more talent from their second round pick or prospects returned for Kyle Lohse?

Due to compensation round picks and competitive balance picks, the Astros second selection in the draft will be number 40. In 2012, with the 41st pick, the Astros got Lance McCullers. I love Lance McCullers, and many considered him a first round talent, who fell due to signability concerns. He was ranked the 50th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. I think its fair to say that if the Astros could guarantee another McCullers in the second round, Lohse would not be worth it. But McCullers is the exception, rather than the rule. Scanning through the 40th picks in the draft over the past ten years or so, you don't see a lot of recognizable names. Huston Street has done well for himself in that slot, and the Royals don't seem to have given up on Luke Hochevar yet, but overall the 40th pick is more miss than hit. 

So could Luhnow do better with a trade? That depends on Lohse's performance, of course. While Lohse's ERA last year was a sparking 2.86, his FIP was over a half run higher at 3.51. Nearly every projection system  has Loshe regressing to a 3.50 era or higher, which is more consistent with Lohse's career performance than last year. Counting on Lohse repeating his 2012 season would not be wise.

Of course, a starting pitcher with 3.50 ERA has value, and could still be traded for a decent return. By comparison, last year, Wandy Rodriguez and Anibal Sanchez had ERA's between 3.50 and 4.00 and were traded for Robbie Grossman/Rudy Owens/Colton Cain and Rob Brantly/Brian Flynn/Jacob Turner respectively. Neither trade was a game changer, but both were good returns. Both Turner and Brantly contributed at the big league level last year, and Grossman appears to be knocking on the door for the Astros. The nature of trades versus the draft is the ability to get someone closer to the majors, which cuts down on the risk associated with the draft. 

Seems the like the second round pick has more risk, but the potential for higher upside, whereas a trade, if Lohse performs as expected, would be lower risk but lower reward. Of course, the loss of the draft allotment that accompanies the second round pick could also potentially hinder the Astros ability to sign other picks. My gut is still that its not worth it. I'd rather see if Luhnow can work his magic in the draft again than rely on Lohse's performance to maximize his return. But its a closer call than I first thought. What do you think?

Forbes' Billionaire list

Just a quick heads-up, Drayton McLane is ranked #831 on Forbes' Billionaire list (#279 on the U.S. list), valued at $1.8 billion. Our new fearless owner is not on the list.

Nolan Ryan to leave Texas?

Here's some strange news out of the Metroplex over the weekend that Randy Galloway has apparently sourced and confirmed enough that it's no longer rumor: Nolan Ryan may be out with the Rangers - maybe by the end of the month.

And, if I'm reading this right, it's all because of a power struggle between Jon Daniels and the ownership group in light of a press release that talked about everybody's shift in responsibility...everybody except Nolan Ryan.

What does this mean for Houston? Nothing, well, perhaps nothing. Galloway does manage to work in an Astros reference to the piece:

"And then there's the Houston Astros, a ballclub in deep, deep trouble at the moment, and a club with a new owner who definitely needs Ryan as a credibility face and force, the same as Tom Hicks did when he hired Ryan in Arlington."

Weird, right?

There's not much really to comment on. I'm not going to sit here and clap with glee about the "problems" with Nolan Ryan, because as much tongue-in-cheek "Traitor!" crap we give him, Ryan has earned the right to be treated like baseball royalty. If he gets ousted in Arlington, he's certainly more than welcome to come on back south.

Astros Inferno: Greed!

We are pinpointing the exact date the Astros have traveled Dante's trip through Hell in The Inferno. Read the archive here. 
-
So many options. So many choices. At what point do we narrow down the precise moment in time in which Astros fans encountered Greed? 

Here, the prodigal and the avaricious suffer their punishment, as they roll weights back and forth against one another. 

You will share eternal damnation with others who either wasted and lived greedily and insatiably, or who stockpiled their fortunes, hoarding everything and sharing nothing. The two groups roll heavy weights against each other. 

"...I saw multitudes to every side of me; their howls were loud while, wheeling weights, they used their chests to push. They struck against each other; at that point, each turned around and, wheeling back those weights, cried out: Why do you hoard? Why do you squander?" - Dante

Was this date November 17, 2011, when Jim Crane purchased the Astros for $680 $610 million, completing the sale from Drayton McLane as well as the move to the American League? Too early to tell. Should the team return to national discussion (other than from the lazy-nuts media who think it's really funny to not know anything about the Astros, or at least in terms separate from "HERPston you have a problem!"), I imagine we'll sing a different tune about Jim Crane's ownership. 

No. We don't know enough about Crane's tenure as owner to make this call. But there is a date that sticks out in my mind: November 1, 2004. The date that two diametrically oppositional figures in Astros' history stopped rolling their weights against each other and Gerry Hunsicker resigned as general manager of the Astros. 

It was no secret that Hunsicker and McLane did not get along. Yet they ultimately could not overcome their differences, and Hunsicker's departure led to the slow flame-out of the franchise. Hunsicker begat Purpura who begat Wade. 

Drayton owned the team from 1993-2011. In those 19 seasons, the Astros finished with a losing record six times. Four of those six seasons came after Hunsicker left. Why do you hoard? Why do you squander?