Sunday Morning Hot Links

I spent the weekend in Galveston for work and took a couple of days off from the blog. Someone broke into the Work Car and stole all of our backpacks, it was fantastic. Let's see what has happened over the last couple of days...

*Josh Reddick had an apparently successful surgery on his AC joint in his shoulder. The Astros said he'd be ready for Spring Training.

*From Friday: Tom Verducci notes that MLB has already interviewed "15 to 20" Astros personnel, including A.J. Hinch - "Some more than once." One "official:"
I don't know if MLB wants to turn over every rock, because this is the culmination of where the game is going. Whatever comes out of this has to be good for the game. This gives MLB ample opportunity in this day and age to do whatever they want with protocols. You can reshape where technology is in our game. You have a golden opportunity to restructure some processes in baseball.

*From Friday: Jeff Passan reports that MLB officials are asking questions about the Astros' efforts to steal signs. Key paragraph:
Players have been asked about "buzzing," via the use of Band-Aid-like wearable stickers; furtive earpieces; pitch-picking algorithms; and other potential methods of sign-stealing, the sources said. Accusations about the extent of the alleged wrongdoing have streamed into commissioner Rob Manfred's office from officials of other teams, the sources said. MLB officials are endeavoring to separate fact from fiction, the sources told ESPN, and the league has not concluded whether any such methods actually have been used. 

So it's open-season on the Astros from basically anyone who has a score to settle (i.e, "officials of other teams.") Got screwed in a trade? Call Manfred and tell him that the Astros keistered electrode-addled tampons for an extra edge in knowing if the pitch coming in is breaking.

Next key paragraph:
Players who might have violated league rules have been told by MLB officials they can expect leniency in exchange for answering questions truthfully. But members of the Astros' front office and coaching staff could face significant punishment upon the investigation's conclusion if they're found to have cheated, the sources said. The league has requested to search the phones of certain members of the Astros' front office, the sources said. 

What Manfred wants (again, this is my opinion with absolutely no one in the organization talking to me, because Active MLB Investigation) is to get enough guys to flip so he can go after Luhnow. Passsan notes that "multiple players no longer in baseball" are refusing to cooperate with the investigation. I'm gonna go out on a really thick limb and guess that McCann and Gattis have told Manfred to shove it.

Evan Drellich had an update on Thursday in which Manfred promises they're chasing down every lead in regards to sign-stealing across baseball. But Manfred was clear in noting that the sign-stealing thing wasn't, but also was, related to the Taubman thing:
Started separately, ended up as one big thing. It's hard to separate them out. I hope at the end of this undertaking, I'll put both of those issues to bed at one time.

So that's it. MLB wants to tie one issue that is ongoing and apparently league-wide to the other issue that resulted in a firing. Cool.

*Baseball Prospectus' Rob Arthur (remember he's the one who isolated the audio and found evidence of trash can banging) notes that the Astros' transformation into a Murderers' Row-esque offense coincides with the sound of banging on trash cans. The close:
New details are bound to come out, but in the meantime we can tentatively conclude that their sign stealing probably had a major impact on the team's plate discipline numbers. This was not innocent cheating that barely affected the game; according to the available data, it may have yielded an unprecedented improvement in the Astros' ability to make contact and lay off outside pitches, helping to turn a talented lineup into one of the best-hitting teams of all time.

*Yahoo's Tim Brown giddily works through some consequences.

*Jon Heyman knows some scouts and, of the dudes he asked about the emails who had Some Concerns regarding the sign-detection from the dugout, one got fired and one got promoted by a different team. Heyman loves Teh Scouts.

*In the wake of the trades for Verlander, Cole, and Greinke, Jim Callis tackles the strength of the Astros' farm system. Callis:
All the graduations and trades have left the Astros system thinner than it has been since it was one of the game's worst at the beginning of the decade. Unlike then, they aren't about to string together a slew of last-place finishes. Their lone Top 100 Prospect, Forrest Whitley, should be ready for the big leagues in 2020, but they lack other impact talents who can make a difference in the next couple of seasons...That said, Houston has excelled at using analytics and technology to create pitching prospects out of unheralded signees, with Bryan Abreu, Cristian Javier, and World Series hero Jose Urquidy three prime examples currently looking to stick in the big leagues.

Callis' Top 5 Astros Prospects:
Whitley
Freudis Nova
Korey Lee
Bryan Abreu
Abraham Toro

This is a really thorough look at what the Astros have in the pipeline. Click the link.

*David Schoenfield: Which free agent pitcher could be the next Gerrit Cole? We were so blessed to watch two full seasons of Gerrit Cole.

*The Mariners signed a Double-A guy to a 6yr/$24m deal. Reminder that in September 2013 the Astros apparently offered George Springer a 7yr/$23m deal. He obviously declined it.

Astros offer, 2014-2020: $23m
Springer earnings, 2014-19: $28,935,300

He's about to blow that $23m out of the water.

*Jomboy got what he wanted. It's really cool that The Athletic basically accepted as gospel the narrative Jomboy provided for his "rise to legitimacy" and published it on a reputable platform. Very cool.

*Peter Gammons: How do teams restore pitching after a period of historic offense?

*Ken Davidoff: Labor talks between MLB and MLBPA don't seem to be going very well.

*Texas Monthly: From Rick Perry to Kenneth Starr, here are the Texans involved in the impeachment hearings.

*NY Times: Viking treasure could have made them a fortune. Instead, they sold it.

*Tuna...Cartel?

*Leeds United 2 Luton 1. LUFC take the 2nd automatic promotion spot (with so much more to come)  by 3 points clear....

*A Musical Selection:

Monday Morning Hot Links

The hits just keep on coming.

There is a plan currently working its way through MLB in which 42 minor-league teams - most of them in the short-season leagues - would essentially be contracted. Among them would be the Quad Cities DJs River Bandits, the Astros' Low-A Midwest League affiliate. In September, Travis Sawchik noted that the Astros reduced the number of their minor-league affiliates from nine to seven, with the article wondering if we even needed minor-league baseball. The New York Daily News' Bill Madden leads his article (1st link):
As if they aren't squarely involved in enough transgressions against baseball, we should not be at all surprised to know the Houston Astros - the Jeff Luhnow Houston Astros - were the ringleaders of the MLB plan to essentially destroy grass roots baseball and contract 42 of the 160 minor-league teams. 

You should click that link. Bill Baer has a good recap of the whole thing.

Why would MLB do this? Why would MLB put a slot value on each pick in the first ten rounds of the draft? Why would they cap international spending? To save money. You don't have to pay the pennies you pay for 1000 minor-league players, or staff. So if the outcry is going to be that MLB teams should take better care of their minor-league players, then MLB's answer is to have fewer minor-league players. Then you can pay them more and not be out any actual extra money.

What's the problem, exactly? Well, minor-league baseball provides affordable access to baseball for a large number of people, and that's not taking into account geography. I have never taken my daughter to an Astros game. Why would I spend that much money to go to a game when I know that she's going to want to go by the 6th Inning? I can take her to Round Rock (closer to me), and if she gets through six, it's fine, because I'm out maybe $40 total.

What if you're a baseball fan in Billings, Montana (one of the teams proposed to get the axe)? You lose your team, and you're a 12-hour drive from Seattle. It's a terribly short-sighted idea by people who have all the money in the world trying to save a little bit more of it. Baer:
They'll get their PR win by increasing pay for minor leaguers while drastically reducing its minor-league workforce. They may even save money overall. But the ripple effect of slashing 42 minor league teams across the country will stunt the sport's growth in the long-term. And that's bad for everyone.

Also included in that first link are the other components of the plan: Move the amateur draft to August and limit it to 20 rounds. Madden:
It was the contention of the Astros and most of the smaller market clubs, that there is too much money being wasted on players who will never come close to reaching the majors. They may have a point, but between the reduction of the draft and the limit on the number of players in an organization, who knows how many Mike Piazzas, Luke Voits, or John Gants, will ever be signed.

Interesting that - apparently - the three teams to spearhead this movement were Houston, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. Milwaukee GM David Stearns and Baltimore GM Mike Elias worked under Luhnow in Houston.

Or J.D. Martinez (2009 20th Round), or Tyler White (2013 33rd Round, or Josh Rojas (2017 26th Round, traded for Greinke), to be more personal. When we lived in upstate New York, the closest affiliated baseball team was the Oneonta Tigers. The stadium was terrible and I was wearing a sweatshirt in August, but I do remember seeing Casper Wells play for Oneonta. When Tri-City would come to Oneonta, I saw Jason Castro, J.B. Shuck, Fernando Abad, Bud Norris, and Brian Bogusevic. Apparently Chris Johnson was on that 2006 ValleyCats team but I don't remember him. We moved to Nashville about three months before Jose Altuve put up a .653 OPS for the 2009 ValleyCats. It was a very fun, cheap way to see guys that - clearly - I remember 10-13 years later. I don't know if the minor-league contraction thing is going to happen. I also don't think that one team/one person can destroy the very fabric of baseball, but between Taubman, trash cans, and taking away minor-league baseball in 42 communities across the country, the Astros are making a run at it.

Is Manfred going to make an example of the Astros? Well when Buster Olney writes that teams have treated him "like a high school crossing guard" it's certainly a possibility.

*Something I was recently thinking of FOR NO REASON AT ALL: Atlanta general manager John Coppolella got banned from baseball for life for being cute with international signings for a three-year period from 2015-2017. There is no way Atlanta was the only team playing with signing bonuses. To be fair, Coppolella was banned from baseball in part for trying to mislead MLB's investigation.

*Sean Pendergast notes that the email allegedly sent by Kevin Goldstein to scouts - the "see what you can (or can't) do email - came in August 2017. He found this Chronicle piece from August 18, 2017 about the Astros firing eight scouts.

*Wired: How the dumb design of a WWII plane led to the Macintosh.

*Yes, you can catch Insanity.

*Bloomberg: Inside the most watched YouTube channel in the world.

*A Musical Selection:

I'm a middle-class white guy who will be 40 in February. OF COURSE I love Ben Folds. I've seen Ben Folds play live at least three times. I have never seen anyone play a piano solo by banging the microphone on the actual strings inside the piano before, which I saw him do at Numbers (on Westheimer) in 1998 about ten days after my 18th birthday. Click here if you want to see this song live at Bonnaroo in 2015.

Heyman's notes on the Astros

Interesting notes column from Jon Heyman today in which we find:

*In off-the-field news, Heyman is reporting that morale among Astros personnel is "at an all-time low" because ownership decided to re-jigger the pension plan and also pay "notoriously low" salaries.

*Astros are unlikely to make a Qualifying Offer to Colby Rasmus.

Qualifying Offers are for one year and $15.8m. If Rasmus accepts it, that's what he gets. If Rasmus declines it, the Astros receive draft pick compensation next June.

*Keep an eye on the Astros' interest in Alex Gordon.

*Jon Singleton may need a change of scenery.

*The Astros also may use the TrackMan system for scouting.

The Astros have at least ten scouts in the Dominican

The Astros have "at least" ten scouts in San Cristobal, DR at the MLB Prospect Showcase, according to Jesse Sanchez. He also notes that they'll have the most to spend (thanks to the awfulness that was 2012) come international signing day on July 2, at around $4.9m.

For today, the new color scheme is all pink slips

First Bobby Heck, then Brad Mills. Now Brian McTaggart is reporting that Ricky Bennett and four scouts will not be returning to the Astros.

Luhnow:
“We’re looking top to bottom at the pro scouting department, and we’re going to be restructuring it, and part of the restructuring came with some personnel changes.”

These latest four join for other scouts to not be retained by the Astros for 2013, including the two scouts who signed George Springer and Carlos Correa, the last two 1st Round picks by the Astros.

The four scouts to be let go today are:
Bryan Lambe - hired in October 2011 after serving as a Special Assistant to the GM of the Mets.
Jack Lind
Bob Rossi - hired in 2009.
Scipio Spinks - drafted by the Astros in 1966, was just sent to Sugar Land to watch Clemens pitch

Astros Let Two Scouts Go

Zachary Levine reports that the Astros will not renew the contracts of two area scouts as they continue a minor restructure of their scouting department.

Want to see the Astros' scouting report on Johan Santana?

Mike Silva's New York Baseball Digest has a photographed copy of the Astros' 1995 scouting report on Johan Santana. Looks like A. Reiner did a pretty good job.

Here's a crazy story

...about Astros scout Ed Fastaia, who was a first responder on 9/11.

The Astros have checked in on HS pitcher Connor Walsh

The Astros have had scouts following Radnor (PA) high school pitcher Connor Walsh, who is committed to play for the University of Cincinnati:

“A [Major League] offer would have to be something that would outweigh a college education. A team would have to be interested enough that I would be better off going there than getting a college education. The way I’m looking at it, I’m going to be happy either way, and right now the lean is towards college."

Astros again sit and watch Barret Loux throw a baseball

For the second time in a week, the Astros were in attendance for Barret Loux's second throwing session in College Station, along with the Marlins, Rangers, Cubs, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Phillies and Mariners (according to Brian McTaggart).

Loux:
"Things went about the same, similar velocity on the fastball and breaking pitches. [I] found myself breaking my hands later than I should so control wasn't quite as good as normal, but overall a decent bullpen [session]."

Loux's agent Tom Little:
"I think it's important for them to come out, with what's gone on here the last few months, and see him healthy. Just primarly see how he looks and how hard he's working...

"...I think the offers from the clubs that have interest in Barret will start coming in in October and try to get the thing wrapped up and get Barret placed with a club. I think the four or five clubs that have a lot of interest are going to jump out and then hopefully the right fit for Barret."

Loux, on the Astros' interest:
"That's pretty cool. That's where I've grown up. It's the team I grew up around. so it's definitely interesting."

Half of Major League Baseball went to watch Barret Loux.

And the Astros were one of them.

According to Mark Berman, the other teams in attendance in College Station were the Dodgers, Twins, Marlins, Reds, Yankees, Pirates, A's, Brewers, Mets, Angels, Blue Jays, Royals, and Cardinals.

The Diamondbacks weren't.

Bobby Heck:
"We were there because our interest is genuine. We had Rusty Pendergrass, our South Texas area scout up at Texas A&M (Friday) to watch Barret Loux throw an extended bullpen. He showed all four pitches, very consistent with what we saw this past spring in the multiple outings...

..."We will continue to do our due diligence and compile our reports. Obviously we are going to have to weigh the physical work against some of the medical stuff, but at the end of the day if you have a chance to add that type of talent, I think we need to play it out to the end. "

What's the timeline for Loux?
"They would like to have something in place by the end of the semester so he knows his landing spot for spring training."

Astros complete second workout with released Brewers pitcher

The Astros have taken two good looks at Calallen pitcher, and former 9th round Brewers draft pick, Kristian Bueno.

Bueno pitched Thursday at an Astros tryout camp at Weslaco East High School under the watchful eye of Houston scout Rusty Pendergrass, consistently throwing in the 91-93 mile per hour range.

Bueno:
"This is my second tryout with the Astros here. I did the one in the Woodlands on the 10th. It didn't go so good. It was a little rough. I worked on some pitching during the week and came out here and I think I had a pretty fair performance. I hadn't been to one of these since I was 18 and I'm 21 now. I was just trying to get back into the rhythm of how these things work, warming up quicker on the mound. You only have 15 pitches to really impress somebody."

Astros scout Rusty Pendergrass:
"He's left handed. That's all I will say. I can't give any secrets away."

Well, thank God the Astros know he's left-handed. Now I'm going to sign him to my team.

Bueno:
"It's kind of up in the air right now. We don't really know much now. I'm just hoping I get a chance to play for the Astros. They know I live in Corpus and Double-A is the Corpus Christi Hooks. I think that would be really cool. To play in Houston, that would be a dream."

Scouting the SAL on Altuve and Mier

Mike Newman of Scouting the SAL watched the Legends this weekend, and had this to say:

On Jose Altuve:
It is not often I watch a player and think to myself, “this is the exception to the rule”. Jose Altuve fits into this category as a diminutive second baseman whose height would normally remove him from any sort of prospect discussion. However, Altuve flashed plus contact skills, the ability to drive the baseball like a much larger player, and was a very sound fundamentally. He may never start in Houston, but the fact I see him as a future big leaguer is a bit mind blowing.

On Jiovanni Mier:
Mier’s defense was as advertised, but his offensive game was nowhere to be found. In seeing eight at-bats plus batting practice, Mier showed little ability to drive the baseball and a swing more reminiscent of a left-handed hitter. The difference between a Wilmer Flores and Jiovanni Mier is while both have calm, fluid swing loads, Flores’ wrists explode through the zone while balls come off of Mier’s bat with a thud. For Astros fans expecting Mier to be a Nomar Garciaparra clone, it is never too early to temper those enormous offensive expectations.

Astros are middle-of-the-pack in international scouting

Baseball America posted an article regarding the activity of all 30 MLB teams in international scouting. The Astros have six international prospects in the 2010 BA Prospect Handbook, which puts them right in the middle of the road (there are caveats, click the link and read them).

How the Astros ended up with Lyon/Lindstrom

Richard Justice has another excellent blog post on how the Astros ended up with Brandon Lyon, and why Ed Wade continues to get slammed.

Justice got a hold of some scouting reports on both Lyon and Lindstrom. An excerpt from Lyon's:
Strong compact athletic body. Can field position. Holds runners. 1-3 delivery. Has good stuff. Has closed on occasion early in the year. Has in the past. Effective setup reliever. A couple of strikeout pitches with slider and curveball. Occasional fastball stuff is mostly hard. Curveball defuses the style some. Aggressive with first-pitch strikes. Both sides of the plate. Uses curveball early in count. Competes well, has intangibles, which allows to use all of his pitches and go after hitters. Is more sinker-slider type, who can run a four-seamer into right-handed hitters. Can be stretched out multiple innings. See him as a good piece at the back of the pen as a depth reliever who has some flex in use, including closing.''

On Lindstrom:
"Big tall kid. High three-quarter delivery. Power arm. Quick delivery out of stretch. Often rushes, leaving fastball up in the zone. Gets hitters to chase, who will learn in time to stay off that pitch. Needs to get fastball down in the zone more often. Challenges hitters. Will use both sides of the plate. Fastball occasionally will have short cut action. Slider is his next-best pitch. Tight bite with tilt, primarily away from left-handed hitters and occasionally backdoor to lefthanders. Sliders to right-handed hitters when ahead in the count can be chaseable off the outside edge. Good arm. Still a bit of a thrower. Has trouble putting hitters away. Occasional spit-finger, some tumble out of the zone, primarily a show pitch. Still a work in progress as a closer. Like his arm and power."

So basically, this is what Brad Arnsberg is charged with correcting. If Arnsberg can produce according to his history, the Astros were able to save some money, get younger in the bullpen, and manage to avoid a drop-off in the loss of Valverde/LaHawk. I've always been okay with the decision to cut Valverde and Hawkins loose, but I'm continually worried about getting filleted by the likes of Keith Law.

Further nice words about B.J. Hagen

Here are some nice words about recent signee B.J. Hagen, from Traverse City Director of Baseball Operations Jason Wuerfel:

"Hagen got better and better as the summer went on, and in the end, had too good of numbers for someone not to notice. He has a deceptive delivery and throws on a hard, downward plane, which can make a 88-90mph fastball look like a 95-97mph fastball. As he built confidence down the stretch, he was unhittable."

Love. It.

Interesting scouting report on David Duncan

Baseball America posted an extra set of scouting reports, and Lancaster/Tri-City pitcher David Duncan is included:

Duncan began 2009, his first full pro season, at high Class A Lancaster, one of the worst pitcher's parks in the minors. He went 0-9, 8.51 in two months, with his difficulties compounded by the fact that the Astros wouldn't let him use his 82-84 mph splitter. It's his best pitch, but he tended to rely on it too much. Duncan found more success after a demotion to low Class A Lexington, where Houston let him use his splitter again. The rest of his repertoire is below-average. A tall, lanky lefthander throwing from a high three-quarters arm slot, Duncan also has an 86-89 mph fastball and a slow, loopy curveball. Though he doesn't miss many bats, he does do a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. Some scouts think he profiles better as a reliever than as a starter. He'll return to Lancaster in 2010.

Update on Dominican complex

McTaggart has an update on the new Dominican baseball complex, which is apparently six weeks ahead of schedule.

The all-inclusive academy is located in the Guerra Region of Boca Chica, D.R., and just one-half mile from the facilities of the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers and is close to the Kansas City Royals. The complex consists of two and a half playing fields, six pitching mounds, batting cages and an observation tower.

The facility also includes a two-story building with the first floor consisting of administrative offices, educational classrooms, a dining room, a full-service industrial kitchen, weight room, training room, manager and coaches offices, equipment room, clubhouse and laundry room.

The second floor features staff living accommodations, a computer lab with 15-20 work stations and a player entertainment room. Players will be given opportunity to enhance their diets and learn English so that they'll be able to function at a higher level when they move up the developmental chain and reach the United States.

Who will be using this complex?

The Astros will begin holding workouts Monday at their old academy in San Pedro de Macoris for their youngest Dominican players. These are players who will play in the Dominican Summer League in 2010, along with players who will be in Major League camp and Minor League mini camp. Bennett said the group will consist of about 40 players.

The next wave of players begins working out Feb. 2, a group that includes regular Spring Training players and those who will be in the Minor Leagues. They'll work out for a month before coming to the U.S. for the start of Spring Training.

The Dominican Summer League season begins May 30.

And now for some breaking, though not surprising, news

The Astros won't be making a play for Aroldis Chapman.

Ed Wade:
"In all candor, I don't see us a player in that market at this point. The economics are going to run away from us, only from the standpoint that if we're going to make significant investments in the development system we would like to sign [multiple players]...

...If there was an assurance that Chapman was going to be a top-of-the-rotation starter almost immediately, we would take a different approach. The kid has a great arm and stuff, but we'd rather have the flexibility to sign multiples. That's the approach I've taken since I've gotten this opportunity to be here and gotten our international and Latin American programs to the point they're at now.

"I'd prefer to give Felix Francisco and his guys the ability to go out there and sign multiple good, young arms versus putting the lion's share of our money on one particular guy. We took that approach this past year and lo and behold in December we were able to scrape together money already in the budget to sign Ferreira. Those are the types of things we want to continue to try to do. I'm a little leery committing our [international] resources to one particular guy."

It's not surprising, because it's going to take between $10-15 million to sign Chapman. As OremLK astutely pointed out in the post with the Signing Bonuses, the Astros signed their top 10 picks from 2008 and 2009 for less money than the Nationals gave Strasburg. Combined.

Astros super-interested in Chapman

In the MLB.com article on Aroldis Chapman's workout at Baseball USA in Houston, Ed Wade positively gushed - and the Astros were there "in force":

"The kid's got a great arm. He's a physical specimen. He's left-handed. He throws hard. Obviously, anybody would be interested in an arm like this. He's got some great stuff. The early feedback from our guys, and everybody else, is he's a tremendous talent. It was important for us to be out here, being in our backyard. I have seen lots of side sessions over 33 years. You judge guys by their bodies of work and scouts who have seen guys multiple times in competition. If we were going to get involved with a guy like this, we'd make sure we had a lot of information and not just something based on a side session."

So all that's to say: He's big. He throws hard. With his left arm. But we're still not sure.

Update: Chapman at one point was represented by API. Now he's represented by the Houston-based Hendricks Brothers (maybe you remember them from Clemens' days). Jorge Arangure, who has been all over the Chapman story - from defection to residency in Andorra (which Joe Buck hilariously referred to during the playoffs as an island) to his free agency, is reporting that API is suing the Hendricks Brothers for interfering with API's representation of Chapman.

According to Arangure:
(Chapman's former agent) Edwin Mejia said API found evidence that an employee of Hendricks contacted Chapman with the intent of having him breach his contract, and that API will try to recoup hundreds of thousands in expenses, the expected commission and damages.

Why are we talking about this? Because (a) it's interesting, and (b) affects the standing of the Houston-based agents.

It's also worth noting that the Red Sox are the only team to have reportedly offered a deal - $15.5 million - to Chapman.