Sunday Morning Clinchin' Hot Links

The Astros do not care for Making It Easy. Houston wins 1-0 to clinch at least a playoff spot. A win today combined with a Ramger loss gives Houston the division, though we'll talk in a few minutes about whether or not that's something you want. Houston is 89-72. There is one game remaining in the 2023 regular season.

*AL Playoff Picture

1. Baltimore (101-60)

2. Six Flags (90-71)

3. Minnesota (87-74)

4. Tampa (98-63)

5. Toronto (89-72)

6. Houston (89-72)

7. Seattle (87-74)

So the permutations for the Astros for G162 are as such:

HOU win + 6FL loss = AL West Title

HOU win + 6FL win + TOR win = 3rd Wild Card

HOU win + 6FL win + TOR loss = 2nd Wild Card

3rd Wild Card is a matchup against Minnesota

2nd Wild Card is a matchup against Tampa.

Houston is -178 in the Money Line, Seattle is -120 today.

*AL West Odds / Postseason Odds:

FanGraphs:

Six Flags: 71.6% to win AL West / 100.0% to make playoffs

Houston: 28.4% to win AL West / 100.0% to make playoffs

Seattle: 0.0% to win AL West / 0.0% to make playoffs

Baseball-Reference:

Six Flags: 69.6% to win AL West

Houston: 30.4% to win AL West

*If you just took the teams with the six best records in the AL, Seattle and Minnesota would be tied at 87-74 with one game to play. Instead, Minnesota has locked up the #3 spot and Seattle is cleaning out Layne Staley shrines in their lockers today. 

*Here's what we know about the Postseason Matchups:

1. Baltimore will have a Wild Card round bye.

2. Tampa will host the Wild Card Round against the #5 team. 

3. Minnesota will host the Wild Card Round against the #6 team.

The Wild Card Round starts Tuesday. The Division Series starts Saturday. 

In the NL, Atlanta and Los Angeles have clinched 1st Round byes. Milwaukee has clinched the #3 spot. 

*Houston is going to the postseason for the 7th year in a row. Franchises to make the postseason 7+ years in a row:

New York Yankees: 13 (1995-2007)

Los Angeles Dodgers: 11 (2013-2023)

Atlanta: 11 (1995-2005)

Houston: 7 (2017-2023)

MLB: How the Astros got to the 2023 Postseason.

Chandler Rome: The Astros' celebration after last night's game was muted. The ragers are reserved for something else...which could come today. Verlander:

The celebration was a bit muted. Keep your eye on the prize. 

*The Astros have won three straight games for the first time since sweeping the Ramgers from Sept 4-6. 

*It's the Astros' 2nd 1-0 win of the season, the first being against Tampa on April 26.

*The Astros have won back-to-back games scoring a total of three runs. It's the fewest total of runs scored in back-to-back wins since the Astros won 2-0 at CitiField on June 30 and 2-1 against the Yankees on July 1, 2022. 

After what was a far lengthier and more exhaustive search than I had imagined due, in part, to both myself and B-Ref forgetting my Username/Password, the last time the Astros won back-to-back games scoring a total of three or fewer runs was June 20/21, 1992, when they beat the Dodgers 1-0 and 2-0.

*Houston was 1x8 w/RISP. 

*Jose Abreu had the game-winning RBI off a double - it's the second game in a row that Abreu has driven in all of the Astros' runs. Abreu has a three-game RBI streak. In September, Jose Abreu has 26 RBI in 25 games.

*Alex Bregman enjoyed hisself a double - his first extra-base hit since hitting a home run on September 19. Bregman is hitting .232/.348/.343 in September.

*Justin Verlander recorded his 3,342nd career strikeout last night, tying him with Phil Niekro for 12th all-time. He's 25 short of Max Scherzer for 11th, and 29 short of Greg Maddux for 10th. Verlander, on last night's start:

Five innings is not what I consider a job well done. I'd like to have gone deeper, but to hand it over to the bullpen tonight and have them perform the way they do, Hector stepping up was absolutely huge, it makes it easier on us starters.

*Kendall Graveman has a 2.45 ERA with Houston on a 4.89 FIP. Out of 163 qualified relievers, the -1.73 difference from ERA (3.12) to FIP (4.89) is the 159th luckiest. Hector Neris ranks 162nd with a -2.12 ERA-FIP.

Graveman has pitched in 23 games for the 2023 Astros. He has allowed at least one baserunner in 20 of those appearances. He hasn't thrown a clean inning (no hits, no walks) since August 26 - a span of 11 games. 

*And speaking of Hector "Los Cojones Grandes" Neris, he threw 1.2IP of hitless/scoreless relief, getting out of a Graveman-induced jam to preserve the narrowest of leads. It's his longest outing of the season since getting six outs on April 3. Neris has allowed one earned run since August 19 - a span of 17.2IP. 

*Bryan Abreu got the save last night, extending his scoreless outing streak to 27 games, tied with Joe Sambito for the 3rd-longest in Astros history, only behind Ryan Pressly (40 games), and Ryne Stanek (30 games). 

*Kyle Tucker, who has hit three home runs in September, needs a home run today for a 30/30 season. 

*J.P. France wasn't available to pitch on Friday because his wife was dehydrated and in the ER. I've been there. It's terrifying.

*Get ready to figure out if you'll be able to stream from Space City Home Network.

*Roger Clemens talked about his World Series showdown vs Miguel Cabrera.

*Big strong boy Cal Raleigh is pissed about the Mariners missing the postseason for the 21st time in the last 22 seasons. The Frisch's Big Boy:

We've got to commit to winning. We have to commit to going and getting those players. You see other teams going out, going for it, getting big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up. 

Seattle's last ten games were against the Astros and Rangers. In the nine that have been played, they went 3-6. That's not going 2-7 against the MF A's and GD Royals, but it's close. General Manager Jerry Dipoto has already traded a $1 bill for a Reese's Pieces. The plan has been initiated. 

*Liverpool was denied a game-changing goal in the most hilariously VAR way possible. Jurgen Klopp is pissed, understandably.

*What To Watch, October 1:

Rays @ Blue Jays: 2:07pm Central

Astros @ Diamondbacks: 2:10pm 

Rangers @ Mariners: 2:10pm. Dane Dunning will start on short rest against George "No Mames" Kirby.

*I'm reading "Wanderers" by Chuck Wendig and hooboy...

*When Gordie Howe turned Houston into "Howeston."

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

I was unaware the Astros were allowed to win at home. And by God, Cristian Javier was seemingly determined to continue that streak. Anyhow. Astros win. Mariners lose. Rangers and Blue Jays win. Houston is 81-62 and have won one of their last one home games. 

*Updated AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore

2. Houston

3. Minnesota

4. Tampa

5. Seattle

6. Toronto

-

7. Duncanville: +1.5

*AL West Division Odds (Change from yesterday)

FanGraphs:

Houston: 66.1% (+3.4%)

Seattle: 29.1% (-4.9%)

Duncanville: 4.8% (+1.5%)

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 76.3% (+14.1%)

Seattle: 18.8% (-13.2%)

Duncanville: 4.9% (-0.9%)

NL Wild Card Race:

Philadelphia: +4

Chicago: +1

Arizona: -

Miami: +1

Cincinnati/San Francisco: +2.5

The Game:

*The Astros' seven runs was the most in a home game since beating Boston 7-3 on August 22 - a span of seven games. Games with the following runs scored, Minute Maid Park, 2023 (and their record):

0: 2 (0-2)

1: 13 (0-13)

2: 10 (2-8)

3: 8 (3-5)

4: 5 (4-1) 

5: 7 (4-3)

6: 8 (6-2)

7: 7 (6-1)

8: 3 (3-0)

9: 3 (3-0)

10: 2 (2-0)

11: 2 (2-0)

17: 1 (1-0)

Houston is 5-28 when they score three or fewer runs at Minute Maid Park. Ten of Houston's 11 highest run totals in a game have come on the road in 2023. Also note that they have scored three or fewer runs in 33 of the Astros' 71 home games in 2023. 

*Yordan Alvarez was 2x3 with a walk, 2RBI, and his 26th home run of the season. He has a 17-game on-base streak, and since going 0x4 on August 19 in a 10-3 loss to Seattle, Yordan: .403/.542/.710, 4 doubles / 5 homers, 6K:17BB.

*Kyle Tucker was 1x4 with a 2-run double, his first extra-base hit since September 1. His 101 RBI on the season are six shy of his career-high of 107, set in 2021. Tucker:

It's cool. Obviously, you can't get there unless guys in front of you are getting on base and giving you opportunities. I think it's more of that happening rather than me driving them in. I'm fortunate enough to have a lot of high on-base guys in front of me and they've been doing a good job of that all year.

Tucker needs four home runs and four stolen bases to join Jeff Bagwell as the franchise's only 30HR/30SB/100RBI members.

He has 26 home runs, 32 doubles, and 101 RBI. It's the 25th such season by 13 Astros hitters. Your 25+ HR, 30+ doubles, 100+ RBI Astros:

Jeff Bagwell: 7 (1994, 1996-2001)

Lance Berkman: 4 (2001, 2002, 2004, 2008)

Alex Bregman: 2 (2018-2019)

Moises Alou: 2 (1998, 2001)

Carlos Lee: 2 (2007, 2009)

Kyle Tucker: 1 (2023)

Yordan Alvarez: 1 (2021)

Yuli Gurriel: 1 (2019)

Morgan Ensberg: 1 (2005)

Jeff Kent: 1 (2004)

Richard Hidalgo: 1 (2000)

Carl Everett: 1 (1999)

Glenn Davis: 1 (1986)

*A back-to-back of Brown and Javier continues to hamstring the bullpen, seeing as how neither of them remembers how to get 15+ outs. Urquidy limited the damage last night, but that's 9.2IP thrown by the bullpen this series already. 

*Javier, by outs, 2022:

0 out: .410 OPS-against

1 out: .521 OPS-against

2 outs: .723 OPS-against

Javier, by outs, 2023:

0 out: .728 OPS-against

1 out: .804 OPS-against

2 outs: .731 OPS-against

Javier needed 82 pitches to get 12 outs. He has walked 3+ batters in four straight starts. On June 15 Javier threw six shutout innings against the Nationals - his 14th start of the season.

Javier's 1st 14 starts:80.2IP, 65H/26ER, 76K:19BB, 2.90 ERA / 1.04 WHIP.

Javier's last 13 starts, 60.2IP, 64H/49ER, 56K:35BB, 7.27 ERA / 1.63 WHIP.

Javier has been *this* pitcher for as long as he was *that* pitcher in 2023. 

*Kendall Graveman: 0.2IP, 3H/1ER, 0K:1BB. Graveman has allowed an earned run in back-to-back outings for the first time since Aug 3/5, 2023...his first two games back with the Astros. 

*How susceptible have the Astros been to the run game?

*How Jose Altuve turned back the clock to MVP form.

*How Maldonado and Yainer formed a mentor-mentee relationship.

*You see USMNT 3 - 0 Uzbekistan and think, "Oh good." I see USMNT 3 - 0 Uzbekistan and think "so we scored two goals in stoppage time huh."

What To Watch, September 10:

Texans @ Ravens: 12pm Central

Marlins @ Phillies: 12:05pm 

Mariners @ Rays: 12:10pm 

Royals @ Blue Jays: 12:37pm

Padres @ Astros: 1:10pm

Diamondbacks @ Cubs: 1:20pm

A's @ Rangers: 1:35pm

*A Musical Selection:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros "returned" from a road trip, sadly, and were forced to play in front of 40,000 of their own fans last night. Stupid Manfred. Bad Manfred. Houston lost to the Yankees at Minute Maid Park for the first time since July 10, 2021. The Astros are 77-59, and are 35-32 at "home." 

*The "Good News" is that the Mariners and Rangers both lost. It's the second time since the All-Star Break that all three AL West teams (there are two AL West JV teams in the division, as well) lost on the same day. 

*Here's the AL Playoff Picture going into Partidos de 2 Septiembre:

1. Baltimore (83-51)

2. Seattle (76-58)

3. Cleveland (70-65)

4. Tampa (82-53): +6.5

5. Houston (77-59): +1.0

6. East Benbrook (75-59): -

7. Toronto (74-61): -1.5

8. Boston (69-66): -6.5

*Unfortunately, we're Scoreboard and Playoff Odds watching all month. Odds to win the division:

FanGraphs (and the change from yesterday):

Houston: 52.4% (-0.0%)

Seattle: 33.1% (-0.0%)

East Benbrook: 14.5% (-0.1%)

Baseball-Reference (and the change from yesterday):

Houston: 43.9% (-1.8%)

Seattle: 36.6% (-1.8%)

East Benbrook: 19.5% (-7.8%)

The Game

*The Astros, according to Win Expectancy, were never favored to win last night's game.

*Justin Verlander was Efficiently Bad, only needing 88 pitches to give up 8 hits - four of them home runs - and 6ER in 6IP. He had allowed 9ER in his previous five starts as an Astro. It's the fifth time in his career, and his third time as an Astro, that Verlander allowed four home runs in a single game.

He allowed two home runs in the first inning, the second time this season he's allowed 2HR in the same inning (his season debut - May 4 - was the first time).

*Astros pitchers only needed 112 pitches total to lose to the Yankees, tied for the 7th-fewest number of pitches to get 27 outs in 2023. Houston is 5-3 when throwing 112 or fewer pitches.

*There were 11 balls put in play with an Exit Velocity over 100mph: eight for the Yankees, three for the Astros (Diaz's single, Abreu's homer, Tucker's double).

*The offense didn't do much, collecting just four hits - three of them for extra bases. 

*Houston's offense at home, 2023: 67 games, .252/.327/.411, 76 home runs, .737 OPS.

Houston's offense on the road, 2023: 69 games, .261/.332/.442, 102 home runs, .775 OPS.

*Jose Altuve forgot that there was a piece of equipment available that guarded your shins, fouled a ball off of it (for apparently the umpteenth time this season!), and left the game. Mauricio Dubon was 0x3 as his replacement.

*Jake Meyers was 0x3. Since the All-Star Break, Meyers (30 games, 22 starts): .238/.281/.405. Since his 2HR game at Yankee Stadium on August 6: 45 PAs, .186/.222/.233.

Meyers vs LHP, 2023: 76 PAs, .269/.355/.463.

Chas McCormick since the All-Star Break (40 games, 39 starts): .309/.393/.571.

McCormick vs LHP, 2023: 112 PAs, .356/.420/.663.

I had an idea of what I'd find when I looked that up, but Holy God starting Jake Meyers over McCormick, for any reason, is indefensible. Unless Chas is hurt, I guess. And then I'd want to know what hurt. 

*Since coming off the IL, Jose Abreu is hitting .292/.370/.583, with hits in five of the six games in which he has appeared.

*Kendall Graveman is feeling better.

*Rafael Montero is regaining the Astros' trust.

*Boston lost to Kansas City 13-2. The Fightin' Coras have now allowed 7+ runs for the fourth straight game, the first three coming against the Houston MF Astros. The Red Sox let Former Astros Great Jordan Lyles throw 8IP, 4H/2ER, 7K:0BB and improving his 2023 ERA from 6.51 to 6.29. Since August 26 Boston's chances of making the playoffs have slipped from 16.7% to 3.2%. Unlucky. Alex Cora is a piece of shit.

*Michael Clair: The baseball game that never ends - on purpose and for charity.

*Texas Monthly: A Cheat Sheet to Ken Paxton's Impeachment Trial.

*The fruits that are rich in antioxidants.

What To Watch, 2 September:

Arkansas State @ Oklahoma: 11am Central (ESPN)

Newcastle @ Brighton: 11:30am

Rice @ Texas: 2:30pm (ABC)

New Mexico @ Texas A&M: 6pm (ESPN)

UTSA @ UH: 6pm (FS1)

Yankees @ Astros: 6:10pm 

Mariners @ Mets: 6:10pm 

Twins @ Rangers: 6:15pm (Fox)

Blue Jays @ Rockies: 7:10pm

Sam Houston State @ BYU: 9:15pm (FS1)

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Houston MF Astros beat the piss out of the Tampa Bay Rays, 17-4. Houston is 59-46, one game back of Las Colinas, who are 2-6 since starting the All-Star Break on a 6-0 run. The Astros are 14-9 in July, and 9-5 since the All-Star Break. 

*Houston's 17 runs are the most in a game since August 18, 2022 when they put 21 on the White Sox, and it's the most runs scored at Minute Maid Park since September 8, 2019, which featured a 21-1 win over the Mariners.

*Houston's five home runs are the most since July 16. It's the fourth time they've hit 5+ homers in a game. They have hit at least one home run in ten straight games, and hit 2+ homers in five of those. Houston is 10-0 when hitting 3+ home runs. 

*6-9 in the lineup (Abreu-McCormick-Diaz-Meyers): 11x16, 10 runs scored, 1K:3BB, 8RBI, four extra-base hits. 

*Since the All-Star Break:

Yordan: .455/.538/.818

Chas: .388/.492/.776

Tucker: .365/.469/.750

Bregman: .339/.403/.714

Abreu: .315/.393/.500

Meyers: .304/.385/.522

Yainer: .278/.308/.583

Altuve: .250/.250/.667

Pena: .185/.228/.222 (so, sure, keep hitting him 2nd)

Maldy: .176/.176/.324

Julks: .075/.191/.100

*Corey Julks is going through it. He has 0 hits in his last 33 Plate Appearances and is 3x46 since enjoying a three-hit game against the Mariners on July 6. 

*Jose Altuve hit his 199th career home run. 

*Chas McCormick was 3x5 with a triple and 2RBI, his 4th three-hit game of the season. 

*Jeremy Pena was 2x6 with a career-high 4RBI - 10.3% of his season RBI came in last night's game. He had five RBI from June 29-July 28 (18 games). Pena has RBIs in consecutive games for the first time since May 27-28. 

*Jose Abreu was 3x3 with a homer and 3RBI. Since June 1, Abreu is hitting .288/.330/.484

*Kyle Tucker was 0x6 for the 2nd time in his career, and the first time since May 29, 2021.

*Downtown Hunter Brown: 6IP, 4H/2ER, 4K:2BB. Since the All-Star Break, Brown: 17.1IP, 16H/8ER, 15K:4BB, 4HR. Note the emergence of Hunter Brown's sweeper-slider.

Hunter Brown + Yainer Diaz = Battery of the Future.

*Rafael Montero's 1.8 HR/9inn is the highest of his career since he posted a 1.9 HR/9 in 2016 with the Mets.

*Speaking of the Mets, they traded Max Scherzer to the Rangers yesterday. Scherzer's 4.01 ERA would be the highest of his career since 2011 and his 4.73 FIP is the highest he's ever expected. Since getting lit up by the Yankees on June 13, Scherzer: 8 starts, 51IP, 42H/20ER, 61K:16BB, 3.53 ERA / 1.14 WHIP. 

*Chandler Rome threw water on the Verlander-to-Houston rumors, and wonders who, exactly, is in charge of the Astros.

*Kendall Graveman is excited to be an Astro again. I would be excited, too, if I got traded and jumped 16.5 games up the standings. 

*Sugar Land's Pedro Leon hit a 477-foot home run that left the park.

*Colombia stunned Germany with a 97th minute goal.

*Rolling Stone: An Oral History of "The Fugitive."

*Texas Monthly: The Story Behind Sinead O'Connor's Duet With Willie Nelson.

*A Musical Selection, the greatest B-Side of all-time: