Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros cannot hit at Minute Maid Park, right now. This is a fact. The Astros got embarrassed by the hopeless shell of a man who used to be known as Cole Hamels and they 05'd Justin Verlander again.

*Hinch, on facing Hamels:
We chased a little bit in, but he did threaten us a little bit. Tonight was a little bit of a different game plan than he has had before and a little velocity spike. We just couldn't get anything going.

*The Rangers are 4-4 against Houston, and 12-20 against everybody else.

*Justin Verlander's last three games: 20IP, 9H/2ER, 29K:5BB, and the Astros have lost all three of those starts because they've scored two total runs.

*The Astros have given Verlander two or fewer runs of support in five of his nine starts. Verlander:
It's easy enough to get frustrated, and I think the one thing you try to do is stay positive. Do you want to win? Yeah. Do I want to win? Yeah. I feel like I help my team the most when I get a win. The most you can do is just go out there and keep your team in ballgames...Runs come and go.

*Roger Clemens made 29 starts for the 2005 Astros. They "scored" two runs five times, one run once, and were shutout in nine games. Clemens lost three straight 1-0 games from April 13-23, 2005.

*On the Astros' hitting woes at home, Hinch:
Everyone wants solutions or answers or takeaways from a small sample size. I'm not the least bit concerned about it. It is what it is. Maybe it's the teams we've played. Maybe it's when we've played at home, we haven't swung the bat the best.

Let's take these in order:
a) On the "small sample size:" The Astros get 81 home games in 2018 and have played 20 of them so far. A quarter of the home games is not exactly a small sample size.

b) The Astros have played 20 games against Baltimore, San Diego, Arlington, Anaheim, Oakland and New York. Their combined record is 109-123 (.470). Of course the Astros went 5-1 against the Orioles and Padres and 5-9 against Anaheim, Oakland, and New York. Anaheim and New York are legit, and the Astros went 2-5 against them. Houston was shutout in three of the seven games they played against the Angels and Yankees.

c) The Astros on the road, 2018: .289/.367/.464
The Astros at MMP, 2018: .219/.293/.342

*Last night was the first time the Astros got one-hit since August 20, 2015 against Tampa, also a 1-0 loss at home.

*The bastard Cole Hamels, who pitched with pinpoint control all night, hit George Springer in the elbow. X-rays were negative. Springer:
It doesn't feel too good. It didn't feel too good at the time. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

*Check out the shift the Astros put on Joey Gallo.

*Jake Kaplan: What the first 40 games have told us about the 2018 Astros.

*Despite the disaster of a season the Astros have endured so far, including Dallas Keuchel "struggling" with a 2-5 record and a 3.53 ERA, SI notes the Astros are currently still Vegas favorites to win the 2018 World Series.

*In something that apparently is supposed to qualify as "news," Evan Gattis won't be catching any time soon.

*Did you check Mrs. Hippie Queen's newest Spot the Differences?

*Our Boy Tyler Stafford has a great look at Carlos Correa's ability to hit inside pitches this year, compared to the last two seasons.

*A.J. Hinch says more stolen bases are coming, though seven of their next ten games are scheduled against lefty starting pitchers.

*The Houston Press' Jeff Balke has five reasons to continue to believe in the Astros.

*Tyler White, Tony Kemp, A.J. Reed, and Reymin Guduan will all receive their World Series rings before tonight's Fresno game against Salt Lake.

*Eno Sarris has a fascinating look at a new metric to gauge pitcher command: Command+

*Lance Berkman would like to be considered for the head coaching position at Rice, and I don't really know how Rice says no.

*Because Rob Manfred can't leave well enough alone, he says MLB is looking at the idea of limiting how many relievers you can use in a game.

*Andrew McCutchen's return to Pittsburgh should give you chills:

Andrew McCutchen's return to Pittsburgh: pic.twitter.com/UuSOrjXXA3

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) May 11, 2018

*So you think your family's messed up, huh?

*RIP Scott Hutchison, lead singer of Frightened Rabbit.

Monday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros had baserunners all game long and couldn't push enough of them across including a repeat of Friday night when the potential tying run got thrown out at home. Also Xander Bogaerts had two home runs entering last night's game, and so of course he hit two home runs last night. Frustrating game. The Astros had 14 hits (three doubles, three home runs) and six walks but were 3x15 w/RISP and left 13 on base.

*The 14 hits were the most for the Astros in a loss this season. They're 28-7 when getting 10+ hits in a game this season and are 9-2 when hitting 3+ home runs in a game. The Astros are 4-8 since the 11-game winning streak.

*Derek Fisher was thrown out at second to end the game. Hinch:
Took a perfect throw in a perfect spot to throw him out. It's a risk you're going to take (vs. Kimbrel)

The Astros are now 34-for-51 on stolen bases, a 66.7% success rate that ranks 24th in MLB. The only teams with a lower SB% are Oakland (64.7%), Philadelphia (64.3%), Chicago White Sox (58.7%), Pittsburgh (57.4%), Detroit (56.1%), and Colorado (53.5%). The Astros' success rate seems low for a team full of fast guys.

George Springer is 0-for-3 on stolen base attempts and has been thrown out in 13 of his last 22 attempts dating back to the beginning of the 2016 season. He hasn't successfully stolen a base since August 30, 2016.

*Hinch:
You look up and down the order and we had a tremendous amount of good at-bats. Maybe not at the right time when we needed it the most, but even some of those we didn't come through with runners in scoring position were pretty good at-bats. 

*Joe Musgrove was shooting for 100 pitches - he threw 90, allowing 5ER (3ER on two home runs) - the third time this season he has allowed 2HR and his third 5ER start of the season. He didn't pitch poorly.

*Yuli Gurriel was thrown out of the game after arguing about a strikeout. Hinch:
It sucks when it doesn't go your way and you feel you have to cover more than the allotted plate. 

what's silly is we have the technology for robot umpires and we don't use it pic.twitter.com/rbpK1UxMEf

— Dave Lozo (@davelozo) June 19, 2017

*Dustin Pedroia left MMP to go to the hospital for X-Rays after James Hoyt hit him in the ribs, right after hitting Mookie Betts.

*Jake Marisnick hit a 454-foot home run, his 8th of the season and is one HR shy of tying his career-high. Marisnick has hit 30.8% of his career home runs in 9.1% of his career plate appearances (104 this season).

*Since Opening Day 2014, Jose Altuve leads MLB with a .331 average (min. 1500 PAs). Miguel Cabrera is 2nd at .316.

*At 46-24 here are the Monday Morning Playoff Odds:
FanGraphs: 99.0% to win the division, 99.8% to make the playoffs
Baseball Prospectus: 97.9% to win the division, 99.7% to make the playoffs
FiveThirtyEight: 92% to win the division, 98% to make the playoffs

*Hinch provided updates on four injured starting pitchers:
Keuchel: Playing catch for the first time tomorrow
McCullers: Bullpen today or tomorrow, could return to the rotation against Seattle this weekend
Morton: Looking at a rehab start Thursday in Fresno
McHugh: Will fly today to West Palm Beach to essentially begin a Spring Training

*Brian McCann changed his swing this past offseason

*The Mariners will activate Felix Hernandez from the DL in time for him to face the Astros on Friday.

*Rogelio Armenteros threw four perfect innings in relief for Corpus yesterday, striking out three in a 2-1 Hooks loss. In 60.1IP this season, Armenteros has allowed 39H/11ER with 69K:19BB - a 1.64 ERA/0.96 WHIP.

*Mack Hayes, of "Go Go Astros" fame, is still going strong.

*Spiritualized, The Verve, and 1997's Biggest Secret Love Triangle

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros failed to take advantage of early baserunners, going 0x8 w/RISP - now 1x28 in this series vs Detroit w/RISP - and ended up losing 6-3. Charlie Morton made it through the 7th for just the second time this season.

*After a 9th inning homer, Alex Bregman finished (wink wink) a triple shy of the cycle.

*For only the second time this season Chris Devenski didn't strike out a batter. Hinch:
It was a little bit of bad luck, little bit of rough start to the inning, and they found a way to push across a couple of runs. 

*Notably, Jordan Jankowski made his major-league debut, striking out the side but allowing a 2-run homer to Jose Iglesias in between the 2nd and 3rd strikeouts. Jankowski:
I felt fine. I thought I made some pretty good pitches. Iglesias just beat me. I hit my spot, and he just beat me. 

Given the velocity and launch angle, Iglesias' home run is a home run 1% of the time.

*Dallas Keuchel is ready to come off the DL:
I didn't really want to go on the DL in the first place...It's not like I was on my death bed or anything. It was one of those things where it wasn't feeling right, and I decided to get right just based on how we're playing and the situation we're in.

Also in that link we find that Correa has been out of the lineup for two games because of a "sinus-induced sickness" that led him to sleep all day yesterday. While the sinus issues are nothing to envy, I'd do just about anything to just sleep all day.

*Since posting consecutive 2-hit games on April 11/12, Carlos Beltran is hitting .210/.269/.370 in his last (arbitrary end point alert) 32 games - 30 starts - with 32 strikeouts in 130 plate appearances.

*A strengthened lineup top-to-bottom means the Astros are stealing far fewer bases this year compared to the last two years.

*Jerome Solomon writes that the Astros faced their biggest challenge this past weekend, and still found ways to win.

*Recently DFA'd outfielder Andrew Aplin was traded to the Mariners yesterday for Cash Considersations or a PTBNL. Aplin, the Astros' 5th Round pick in 2012, had hit .245/.341/.329 in four seasons at Triple-A. When he was drafted, Baseball America said that Aplin was good defensively but profiled more as a 4th outfielder-type.

*Eno Sarris: The Astros have played the 10th-toughest schedule in baseball to date.

*Want a new lefty reliever? The Padres are open to dealing Brad Hand and his 12.1 K/9 rate.

*The Astros' marketing folks are up to it again, revealing a Chris Devenski/Dragon bobblehead promotion (June 20) on the day the new Game of Thrones trailer was released (whatever "Game of Thrones" is...)

*Coming up tonight: Verlander vs. Fiers, which should be just fine.

*Before You Go:

Goosebumps! The amazing moment Manchester crowd joins in with woman singing Oasis - Don't Look Back in Anger after minutes silence pic.twitter.com/Cw4mOq8yde

— Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) May 25, 2017

Brad Mills won't even try to slow Bourgeois down

Nice article from Zach Levine on Jason Bourgeois, in which Mills explains what kind of light he has when on base:

“I have full confidence that he’s comfortable with it. A lot of times if you pull the reins back too tight, then he’s not sure when to go. But he’s fine, and there’s no reason to try to put a harness on it at all.”

Bourgeois, despite limited playing time, is tied for 9th in the NL in stolen bases, and is only 3SB behind league leader Michael Bourn.

And by limited playing time, I mean 36ABs. Of the Top 10 in NL steals, Bourgeois has 51 fewer ABs than his closest competitor - Will Venable - who has 87ABs.

Why does Hunter Pence get caught stealing so much?

Hunter Pence has stolen nine bases this season. And has been caught stealing five times. How is this possible, especially for a guy who is as fast as Pence? Let's take a look first at his stolen bases:

April 18 @ Chicago, vs RHP Carlos Marmol/righty Koyie Hill. 9th inning, 1 out.
Hill had been in the game only since the top of the inning. After Lee flied out, Pence singled on the first pitch. With Blum up, Pence took off on a 1-1 count, and later scored on Blum's double.

April 25 v. Pittsburgh, vs. RHP Charlie Morton/righty Ryan Doumit. 3rd inning, 2 out.
The Astros jumped on the Pirates in the third inning, helped by Pence's stolen base. Carlos Lee had stolen second (!) two batters before Pence had come up, and Berkman had walked immediately before Pence's AB. So when Pence reached on a fielder's choice, it scored Bourn to give the Astros a 3-1 lead. With Pedro Feliz up, Pence took off on a 1-0 pitch and stole second. He and Lee both scored on Pedro Feliz' single.

May 26 @ Milwaukee, vs. RHP Claudio Vargas/righty George Kottaras. 5th inning, 0 out.
Vargas had just entered the game with the Astros up 4-0. Pence drew a seven-pitch leadoff walk, and took off with Carlos Lee at bat on an 0-1 pitch. Lee later struck out swinging, but Pence scored on Berkman's single.

May 27 @ Milwaukee, vs. LHP Zach Braddock/righty George Kottaras. 7th inning, 0 out/1 out.
This was Pence's only multi-SB game of the season (so far). Braddock had just come in with a 3-2 lead, and Pence hit a leadoff single. With Berkman up, he stole second on a 1-2 pitch to Berkman, and stole third on the first pitch to Blum.

June 6 v. Chicago, vs. RHP Bob Howry/righty Koyie Hill. 8th inning, 2 out.
The Astros were ahead 6-3 when Pence drew an eight-pitch walk. With Feliz up two batters later, Pence took off on a 2-1 pitch and stole second.

June 13 @ New York Yankees, vs. RHP Phil Hughes/righty Jorge Posada. 1st inning, 1 out.
The Astros were up for their first turn against Hughes, and Bourn had gotten on first with a single. Keppinger had lined out, and Pence drew a six-pitch walk. With Carlos Lee up, both Bourn and Pence took off on a 1-1 count. Bourn scored on Lee's sac fly, and Cory Sullivan ended the inning.

June 22 v. San Francisco, vs. RHP Tim Lincecum/righty Bengie Molina. 4th inning, 1 out.
What looked like a hit-and-run with Pence on 1st with one out, and Chris Johnson at the plate, Johnson struck out swinging on a nine-pitch full count, and Pence was on the move, stealing second off Molina.

June 23 v. San Francisco, vs. RHP Guillermo Mota/righty Bengie Molina. 6th inning, 0 out.
Pence led off the inning with a single, and on a 1-0 count with Chris Johnson up, Pence stole second, later scoring on Johnson's double.

Okay, so here's what we have. Nine stolen bases against four teams (Brewers 3, Cubs 2, Giants 2, Yankees, and Pirates). Three stolen bases with no outs, four with one out, and two with two outs. Only three stolen bases against a starter, while six stolen bases came with the pitcher having just entered the game in that same inning. Eight of the nine stolen bases were off of RHPs.

Now, on to the Caught Stealings:

April 15 @ St. Louis, vs. RHP Kyle Lohse. 2nd inning, 1 out.
Lohse picks Pence off first with one out and the count at 1-1.

May 4 v. Arizona, vs. RHP Ian Kennedy/righty Chris Snyder. 6th inning, 1 out.
With the Astros down 1-0, Pence hit a first-pitch leadoff single. With a 2-1 count to Manzella, Pence was caught in a rundown (2-4-3-6) for the second out of the inning.

May 8 v. San Fiego, vs. RHP Jon Garland/righty Yorvit Torrealba. 5th inning, 1 out.
With the Astros down 1-0, Pence hit a first-pitch leadoff single. Pence took off on a 1-1 pitch to Matsui, and was thrown out for the second out of the game.

May 23 vs. Tampa Bay, vs. RHP Dan Wheeler/righty John Jaso. 7th inning, 1 out.
After Pence knocked in Keppinger to close the Rays' lead to 7-5, Pence was caught stealing one batter later on a 1-1 pitch to Carlos Lee.

July 3 @ San Diego, vs. RHP Kevin Correia/righty Nick Hundley. 2nd inning, 1 out.
Pence got a one-out single in the 2nd (game tied at 0-0), and with Jason Castro up, Pence took off on the seventh pitch of a 2-2 AB. Castro was called out on strikes, and Pence was thrown out to end the inning.

So what do we see here? Two of his five CSs were legit throw-outs by the catcher. One was a pickoff, one was a rundown, and one was a strike-em-out-throw-em-out double play. Of the 14 "attempts," eight were taken with a one-ball count. Only once did he run on the first pitch. In two instances was the hit-and-run on, and Pence was successful once. In four of the five CSs, Pence tried to run on the starting pitcher. One was Lohse's pickoff, but the other three were gun-downs.

So why can't Pence steal more bases? I don't know how often he has the green light, but he's been caught three times on a 1-1 count. All five of the times he's been caught have been when the Astros are tied or behind. Maybe he's just predictable.

Bourn's CSs

So the wife is sick, which means she's still asleep, which means I have plenty of opportunities to think of all sorts of randomness. And this morning, I turn my attention to the 12 times this season Michael Bourn has been caught stealing.

CS1
April 17, Reds @ Astros
Bottom 7th, 2 outs, Astros ahead 1-0
Caught stealing 2nd by RHP reliever Nick Masset/Ramon Hernandez

CS2
May 3, Astros @ Braves
Top 9th, 0 out, Astros ahead 7-5
Picked off 1st by RHP reliever Mike Gonzalez/Brian McCann

CS3
May 9, Padres @ Astros
Bottom 4th, 1 out, tied 0-0
Caught stealing 2nd by RHP starter Kevin Correia/Nick Hundley

CS4
June 1, Rockies @ Astros
Bottom 1st, 0 out, tied 0-0
Caught stealing 2nd by RHP starter Aaron Cook/Yorvit Torrealba

CS5
June 16, Astros @ Rangers
Top 1st, 1 out, tied 0-0
Caught stealing 3rd by RHP starter Kevin Millwood/Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Double play, with a strike 'em out, throw 'em out with Carlos Lee

CS6
June 17, Astros @ Rangers
Top 9th, 1 out, tied 4-4
Caught stealing 2nd by LHP reliever C.J. Wilson/Jarrod Saltalamacchia

CS7
June 19, Astros @ Twins
Top 1st, 1 out, tied 0-0
Caught stealing 2nd by RHP Kevin Slowey/Joe Mauer

CS8
July 10, Nationals @ Astros
Bottom 4th, 1 out, Astros ahead 2-1
Picked off 2nd by LHP Scott Olsen

CS9
July 27, Astros @ Cubs
Top 3rd, 2 outs, Astros ahead 1-0
Caught stealing 2nd by RHP starter Carlos Zambrano/Koyie Hill

CS10
August 1, Astros @ Cardinals
Top 5th, 2 outs, tied 1-1
Caught stealing 2nd by RHP starter Chris Carpenter/Yadier Molina

CS11
September 18, Astros @ Brewers
Top 3rd, 1 out, Astros ahead 1-0
Caught stealing 2nd by LHP starer Chris Narveson/Jason Kendall

CS12
October 2, Astros @ Mets
Top 1st, 0 out, tied 0-0
Caught stealing 3rd by RHP starter John Maine/Omar Santos

Some trends, if you'll allow:
CS with 0 out: 3
CS with 1 out: 6
CS with 2 out: 3

CS with game tied: 7
CS with 2+ run margin: 1

CS by RHPs: 9
CS by LHPs: 3

CS at home: 4
CS on road: 8

CS in Inn 1-3: 6
CS in Inn 4-6: 3
CS in Inn 7+: 3

Tejada sets record, Bourn goes against the grain

In this morning's Chronicle Notes column, we see the following:

-Tejada's 198 hits tie him with Derek Bell for second all-time in Astros history.

In case you're wondering, here are the top 10 hits seasons for the franchise:
1. Biggio, 210, 1998
2. Bell, 198, 1998
Tejada, 198, 2009
4. Cabell, 195, 1978
5. Berkman, 191, 2001
Biggio, 191, 1997
7. Lee, 190, 2007
8. Cruz, 189, 1983
9. Biggio, 188, 1999
10. Cruz, 187, 1984
-
Michael Bourn knew better than to get thrown out at third base in Friday's game, and would have scored on Tejada's single later in the inning.

“I'm aggressive at times. I pick and choose my spots...If you're safe, you're good. If you're not, you hear about it.”

Bourn's four stolen bases

As you're aware, Michael Bourn is four stolen bases short of the franchise record (Gerald Young - 65). Is it on his mind?

Bourn:
"If I'm on, I'm going to go. As far as [the club record] being in my mind, it's not on my mind to where it's going to bug me. It's in my mind because I know what the record is. If I got the opportunity to get it, I'm going to try to get it. I'm going to try to tie and break it. That's only if the opportunity presents itself and how much I get on base. We'll see what happens the last few games."


On his approach:
"I'm more laid back and let Lance or Carlos drive the ball. It makes it easier on them to make contract with the ball and drive it to the outfield or hit the ground ball and I can get in either way. Just have it in the pitcher's mind that I might go, so he can't concentrate on Lance and Carlos and he might leave a pitch up."

Bourn told McTaggart that he's looking to steal third base more often in 2010.

Lance leads first basemen in, wait, stolen bases?

Got a comment on the Bud Norris post linking to More Hardball breaking down the stolen base leaders by position in 2008.

Might you believe that Lance led first basemen in stolen bases last year with 18 (and only caught stealing four times)? And not even close - by, like, 10 stolen bases.

Here's how the 1Bs broke down:
1. Lance (18)
2. Derrek Lee (8)
3. Albert Pujols (7)
3. James Loney (7)
3. Joey Votto (7)
6. Miguel Cairo (5)

And then a bunch of guys who probably got the signals mixed up and just started running hard.

I don't know why, but that really surprised me. And you?