Sunday Morning Hot Links

*When the Astros acquired Gerrit Cole pretty much everybody said that, with a tweak in his mechanics, he should return to form. Well, A.J. Hinch says Cole doesn't need it:
Gerrit Cole is pretty damn good. He's been an effective big league pitcher. Did he give up a few home runs last year? Yeah. Did he have a slightly down season compared to his standards? Yes. That doesn't mean he can't be a top elite pitcher in the American League just given his stuff, his makeup and his ability to pitch.

*Brian T. Smith: Jim Crane knows he has a team that's built to last.

*Ken Giles worked on his endurance this offseason, and he cares not for your worries about him.

*In The Athletic (subscription required) Francis Martes has made the Astros well-pleased with his refined delivery.

Here's a similar story in the Chronicle. Hinch:
He's throwing as hard as anybody in camp. It's still really early, but he came really prepared.

*Brady Rodgers and Jandel Gustave - both coming off Tommy John surgery in 2017 - are on a restricted program that involves some "light throwing."

*Luhnow said that, had Colin Moran not fouled a ball off his face, the Astros might not have traded him to the Pirates:
I think had he been given that opportunity, I think he would have hit .300, I think he would have hit for power. We might not have traded him because we might have wanted to figure out a way to keep him on our club.

*Luhnow talked to Newsday's David Lennon about the slow offseason and the thinking behind the front office slow-play:
We all have great young players in our system and on our big-league teams. And because the investment is so high in young players, they get to the big leagues fairly early. They're still developing at the big leagues, and so swapping one of the young players out for an established veteran is not as attractive today as it would have been five years ago or 10 years ago...It could be that there's just simply fewer spots because a lot of the younger players are taking up spots and they're contributing. It doesn't explain everything, but part of the dynamic is that we're doing a good job as an industry developing young talent and valuing that talent. 

You look at who would make a list of the Great GMs in the game right now, and it's a fairly short list: Theo, Luhnow, Dayton Moore, Billy Beane (?), Brian Cashman. How did they get there? It's through drafting - and developing - that talent. We are now in a cycle in which GMs that rely on trades and free agent signings to bolster their team aren't doing so well (see: Dipoto, Jerry). Perhaps the most important "skill" for a GM right now is the ability to draft well.

Look at the playoff teams from 2017 and how many players on the current 40-Man roster - with 1.0+ years of service time - were acquired through the draft, signed as an amateur free agent, or a Rule 5 pick:

Colorado: 14
Washington: 13
Cleveland: 12
Minnesota: 12
Arizona: 11
Boston: 10
Houston: 9
Los Angeles: 9
New York: 8
Chicago: 5

Okay, I'll be honest, I didn't think Chicago would rank last here, but it is what it is. The average number of players who meet this criteria for 2017 playoff teams is 11.1 players/per roster.

Let's look at the teams that finished under .500 with the same criteria:

New York Mets: 15
San Francisco: 13
Detroit: 12
Arlington: 11
Baltimore: 10
Pittsburgh: 9
Cincinnati: 9
Chicago White Sox: 8
Philadelphia: 8
Toronto: 7
Anaheim: 6
Kansas City: 6
Miami: 6
Seattle: 6
San Diego: 5
Tampa Bay: 4
Oakland: 3
Atlanta: 2

The average number of players who meet this criteria on sub-.500 teams is 7.0 players.

There are a host of asterisks that could go along with this list: maybe you traded for a guy in A-ball and you developed him into a Major-Leaguer (see: Martes, Francis) and, as a result, he's not on this list. Maybe your team sucks, and the guys that have made this particular cut simply aren't very good, and that's why your team was 64-98 (cough, Mets/Tigers, cough). There are also issues with making this an annual exercise: the White Sox, Padres, and Braves are going to be good soon, but they won't show up as highly on this list because the building blocks they're using were acquired through trades. But I'll let the point stand. I guess.

*Riley Ferrell talked about getting notified of his Spring Training invitation while duck hunting:
About 3:30pm, birds [were] about to start coming in, [and] I was excited for that. I get this text message, and I'm like, 'I don't know who this is.' Looked at it, and I was like 'Oh, I got invited to big league camp. That's pretty cool.' No longer was I worried about birds. 

*2016 4th Round pick Brett Adcock (117Ks in 107.2IP at Buies Creek last season) is ready for the season:
I obviously have things I need to fine-tune. If I didn't, I'd be in the big leagues right now. I'm just trying to make myself 1 percent better each day. If I can do that, hopefully I can end up in the right place. 

*Josh Reddick, in all his Josh Reddickness (Reddickulousness?), talked about the ballistic missile scare in Hawaii:
I went back to my room (after it was clear that the alert was not real) and it was actually frustrating, because me and my girlfriend were going to visit with the Dolphins that morning. We got there on time. We got to play with the dolphins that morning. It was plenty of time. She wasn't even worried about dying; she was worried about seeing the dolphins. I said, 'Those dolphins can wait, we can see them tomorrow if we're still here.' Still had a great time. 

*Rich Hill has chilled out about the 2017 World Series. In a sample poll of Rich Hill and myself, 50% of respondents have chilled out about the 2017 World Series.

*If you find yourself in Fresno on May 12 you can pick up this sweet Carlos Correa Starting Lineup figure.

*Eric Hosmer signed an 8yr/$144m deal (with an opt-out after five years) with the Padres.

*The Rangers have backed out of the deal to sign reliever Seung-Hawn Oh after concerns about his MRI. So here comes a bunch of editorials comparing them to the dastardly Astros and their treatment of Brady Aiken, yes?

*Chris Archer says the Rays could have the best rotation in MLB. And then they traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, so who knows now?

*Fernando Abad, who signed a new deal with the Phillies for 2018:
2010-2012 w/HOU: 84.2IP, 5.10 ERA / 1.56 WHIP, 1.97 K:BB ratio.
2013-present:            233IP, 3.13 ERA / 1.21 WHIP, 2.58 K:BB ratio.

*The Haunting of Lindsey Jacobellis.

*From No Depression: A musician's life on social media.

*The Globe and Mail's Michael Harris: I Have Forgotten How To Read.

#Astros Joe Smith 2017 Pitch Quality

5.87 QOPA

Late Break (Top 1% MLB)
Horizontal Break (Top 1% MLB)
Location (Top 6% MLB) pic.twitter.com/DDMtkyltsl

— MLB Quality of Pitch (@qopbaseball) February 17, 2018

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Perhaps this was the only way. In a series marked by momentum swings, improbable back-and-forth heavyweight haymakers, and narratives that change on the fly, this series felt like a Game 7 was a certainty, just as Yasiel Puig predicted after Game 5. The Astros wasted a solid outing from Verlander, who came to Houston for exactly this moment, and couldn't solve Rich Hill for a second time. Tonight is the last time there will be baseball until February.

*The Astros were plagued by their 2017 playoff enemy RISPitis, going 0x6 with runners in scoring position. They had runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out in the 5th - with Reddick, who had worked a 3-0 count, just needing a flyball (and bases loaded with Bregman up with two outs), and didn't score a run. Runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the 6th, and didn't score a run. Runners on 1st and 2nd with one out in the 7th and Bregman and Altuve up, and didn't score a run. Correa and Altuve were a combined 0x8. Josh Reddick is 0x11 in the last three games.

*The Dodgers only got five hits, two of them for extra bases. The Astros had six hits, two of them for extra bases. But the Dodgers' 6th inning - a double-switch that brought in Tony Watson and Chase Utley and gave the Dodgers a lead they would not relinquish - was crucial, as David Schoenfield notes. Corey Seager:
Verlander was tough. We just kept grinding, grinding. Finally, we got the big double from [Chris Taylor].

*Sports Illustrated's Stephanie Apstein: The Dodgers won Game 6 because of a decision they made months ago.

*Verlander said that he was not allowing himself to think that his 1-0 lead on Springer's two-out home run would be enough to win the World Series:
Absolutely not. No chance. Not the way this Series has gone, not the way these guys' lineup is. If we could have squeaked across one or two more, I might have changed my mentality a little bit. I've played this game too long. What happened, that can happen to anyone. The best-hit ball that inning was a flyout to right field. That's why it's so hard to limit offense, especially in this Series.

*Jenny Dial Creech says Verlander didn't have the edge when the Astros needed it the most. Verlander pitched 6IP, 3H/2ER, 9K:0BB, 65 of his 93 pitches were for strikes. He gave up a double and a sac fly. What the hell did you want?

*Joe Musgrove, who gave up another Joc Pederson home run:
This team hasn't panicked all year, and we're not going to start now. Everyone dreams of a chance to play in Game 7 of the World Series. It's the biggest game of everyone's life.

*Lance McCullers will be ready for his Game 7 start tonight based on his Game 3 experience:
I learned I wasn't very sharp. I knew that early, though. So I knew it was going to be a grind for me pretty much the whole outing, which it was. This is a very good hitting team. They're patient, but they'll make you pay for mistakes. So I have to go out there and just execute my game plan. And I need to execute a little better in certain spots. 

*Every pitcher will be available, maybe even Verlander. Verlander:
Right now, I feel great. I've got to sleep on it and see how I feel tomorrow.

*Carlos Correa:
It's how you play in the backyard of your house as a kid, imagine you're in Game 7 of the World Series. It's a dream come true to be a part of it. We couldn't get the job done today, so we're going to go out there tomorrow and win the last game. 

Road teams are 19-18 in World Series Game 7s.

Hinch:
If you carry any baggage into Game 7 of the World Series, then you're certainly misguided with your attention. We will come as positive as ever, ready to play. It is what looks to be one of the most exhilarating games that we're ever going to be a part of. Who can guarantee that you're going to be in Game 7 ever again? Come ready to play. Have your best attitude, have your best opportunity.

*Verlander:
It's been such a great series because these teams are so evenly matched. It's great baseball. It's fun to be a part of. No matter what, this series is going down in the history books as one of the best of all time. I think [tonight] is going to be nothing short of spectacular either way.

*FanGraphs gives the Astros a 53.2% chance of winning tonight. FiveThirtyEight gives the Dodgers a 60% chance of winning tonight. CBS Sports' baseball writers picked their winners for Game 7. Dayn Perry is the only one safe from me.

*Rich Hill stepped off the mound when Gurriel was up so that the Dodgers' crowd could boo him. Hill:
That was my silent gesture.

*There's a great story in this LA Times' notes piece about McCann buying a suite at the Clippers-Warriors game on Monday night.

*Actual Saint Mattress Mack sent a whole bunch of people to LA.

*FanGraphs: Game 5 was as weird as it felt.

*Jeff Sullivan has a counter-argument to the Slick Ball Theory.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Well that was less than ideal, though it never felt like the Astros were completely out of it. Dallas Keuchel threw two bad pitches...Clayton Kershaw only threw one, and that's that. Astros are down 1-0 in the World Series.

*The Astros are now 1-5 on the road this postseason, the lone away win coming in Game 4 of the ALDS. They did not have an AB with a runner in scoring position. Houston has scored 14 runs in six postseason road games, six total in their last four.

*Game 1 was the shortest World Series game (2 hours 28 minutes) since 1992.

*FanGraphs, who had the Astros as their simulation favorites (by a slight edge), dropped them to what is now a 37.5% chance of winning the World Series. Who knew that losing to Clayton Kershaw on the road in Game 1 could drop your chances so dramatically?

*FiveThirtyEight gives the Dodgers a 52-48 edge tonight, and a 62% chance of winning the World Series.

*Dallas Keuchel, on Game 1:
It was a good atmosphere, it was as fun as I had imagined. Taylor hit a first-pitch four-seamer out of the yard, kind of hit us in the jaw. We recovered nicely. I knew we would scratch a run, maybe two, off of Kershaw. But he was as good as advertised. It was one pitch away from being 1-1 going into the seventh. We're trying to win one of two here, so hopefully we'll come out tomorrow and get a win.

*Kershaw's 78 Game Score was the 12th-highest in Dodgers' World Series franchise history.

*Altuve:
We just have to try to put some good at-bats together. We couldn't do it today because Kershaw was pitching extremely well.

StatCast noted that the Astros chased 20 pitches outside the strike zone last night, which seems low by about half.

*Bregman, whose solo home run tied the game in the 4th inning:
I don't think there is any panic with anyone. Everybody is very confident. It is a long series. They have a good pitcher going [tonight], but we do have the best offense in baseball.

Hinch:
We're heading into Game 2 of the World Series, so there's no more rookies, there's no more youth. It's just competing. And their guy beat us. For us, obviously, we need to stay in the strike zone. It's easier said at the podium or sitting in the dugout than in the batter's box. But hopefully we can get it [tonight].

*George Springer was 0x4 with 4K. Carlos Correa was 0x3 with a strikeout...and still only saw five pitches. Marwin was 0x3 and saw only eight pitches. McCann was 0x3 and saw only nine pitches. I guess that game plan was to try to get to Kershaw early in the count. It, uh, didn't work. Springer:
When he can control his slider like that, and throw to either side of the plate, that's why he is who he is. Video doesn't do it justice.

*Tim Leary broke down what went right for Kershaw, what went wrong for Keuchel and the Astros.

*A.J. Hinch is worried about pitch sequencing.

*Astros hitting coach Dave Hudgens:
What guys start doing is they start trying harder. They try to get aggressive. I always tell guys, the way to get out of a funk is to take some pitches. Not to go out there and swing at the first thing you see. Now you've hit a marginal pitch for a weak grounder to short. Now you're sitting in the dugout.

*Hinch wasn't real thrilled with having to wait until 6:45 to get on the field because the Dodgers took too long during live BP. He promised shenanigans in Houston, which, frankly, I'm excited about.

*Jeff Sullivan: Expect the strike zone to favor the Dodgers.

*Bregman, on Verlander:
We have a lot of confidence in Justin and we're ready to compete. We can't wait to get out there and play. I think everyone got a taste of what it's like today. We'll play Astros baseball tomorrow.

*Verlander spends his offseason doing weight training and interval sprints.

*Game 2 starter Rich Hill said he almost joined the Astros last winter.

*Here's Ted Berg with the story on how the 2014 SI cover came to be.

*Jim Crane sent every full-time Astros employee to Los Angeles.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Mike Fiers was pretty great last night and Alex Bregman might have just ignited the offense with a 3-run Train Track Home Run as the Astros beat the Nationals, 6-1. The Astros are 77-49. Anaheim lost, Boston won, so the leads are 12.5 and four, respectively. There are 36 games remaining.

*The Astros scored more than three runs for the first time in a week and hit three home runs in a game (Bregman, Stassi, Marisnick) for the first time since hitting five in a 16-7 win over Toronto on August 4.

*All four runs in the 8th inning came with two outs. Bregman:
Early in the year we did a lot of that. We did a lot of two-out hitting and that's one of the things that I think this team is really good at. And we've got to keep that up if we want to win ball games. 

*Fiers was solid, only needing 90 pitches to throw 7IP, 4H/1ER, 6K:1BB. Fiers:
He had a great game. He was really good from the very beginning with his fastball. I think it was the best fastball I've seen out of him in a while. I know he felt really good and he was executing his pitches in and out...He had a little bit of everything where he was in total command of the game. 

*Jake Marisnick is one of the few Astros who are hitting better at home than on the road.

*George Springer has one home run in his last 25 games.

*Look for Ken Giles to suddenly get pulled from a warm-up session and miss the rest of the season after waking up with a stiff neck. He thinks he'll be able to pitch tonight. (Okay lol).

*The Astros start to get guys back today. Juan Centeno was optioned to Fresno last night in advance of Brian McCann rejoining the team. Max Stassi will remain with the team as he is out of options, and would have to pass through waivers to get to Fresno.

*Carlos Correa will begin a rehab assignment in Fresno today. Lance McCullers will start for Fresno tomorrow night. Will Harris will pitch for Fresno tomorrow night in anticipation of getting activated this weekend in Anaheim.

*Beyond the Box Score: How Brad Peacock became the Astros' new secret weapon.

*Here's a good article in the Corpus paper on Forrest Whitley's ascent through the system. Whitley:
To be honest with you, if somebody told me I'd be in Corpus (now), I'd tell them I think they're crazy. I was fully expecting to spend the season in Quad Cities. Even getting called up to High-A was a bit of a surprise to me and to Double-A is a complete shock. I was completely blindsided by it.

*Rich Hill, man. Tim Brown wrote a good piece about Hill losing a perfect game in the 9th on an error and a no-hitter in the 10th in a 1-0 loss. Peter Gammons is especially broken up about it, but I'm guessing he'll end up in Armando Galarraga territory in that his performance last night will be more memorable than a random no-hitter.

*The Ramgers' Big Expensive Taxpayer-funded Dumb New Ballpark's name will be unveiled today. I vote for Big Expensive Taxpayer-funded Dumb New Ballpark.

*As the Gulf Coast and the rest of Texas prepares for the arrival of Tropical Storm Harvey, I highly suggest you keep Space City Weather bookmarked.

Running down the rumors: Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has a good recap of the Astros' additions and subtractions thus far in the offseason.

*Ken Rosenthal reports that the Astros made a big play for Yoenis Cespedes, who ended up signing a 4yr/$110m deal with New York. Which is notable because...

*Edwin Encarnacion will apparently sign with a team soon. The Astros are seemingly hard after Encarnacion, according to the ESPN baseball guys. Three randoms tweeted that Encarnacion will sign with the Astros.

*ESPN's Jim Ralph Bowden is reporting that the Astros are among four teams "in full pursuit" of Rich Hill.

*Ken Rosenthal talked to a "rival exec" who believes the Astros are loading up on offense to give them the flexibility to deal talent for an elite starter. *IF* the Astros do sign Encarnacion, that leaves flexibility for someone like George Springer or Alex Bregman to highlight a package for someone like Chris Sale.

*There is cautious optimism regarding the ratification of a new CBA.

*George Springer is ready to play more CF:
I will do whatever A.J. asks me to do. I understand (Reddick's) positioning and understand where I played the last two years, but I'll do whatever it is they ask me and give the exact same effort. 

The Astros have a lot of defensive options in the outfield, between Springer, Reddick, Gurriel, Marisnick, and Aoki.

Springer, on how hard Reddick plays:
He's played a very, very hard style of baseball and that's obviously wanted. He reminds me of almost like a dog. He goes after it until he gets it. Plus, he can throw. 

Definitely need to get a dog who can throw.

*The Mariners are interested in Doug Fister.

*Japan's Shohei Otani could blow up next year's free agency class.

*Houston's Bill Neder won the contest that made the new Houston baseball franchise the Colt .45s. His grandson just won the contest that named Waco's new baseball team.

*Atletico Nacional - the team who was supposed to play Chapacoense in the Copa Sudamerica final before Chapacoense's tragic plane crash - wants to award the title to the grief-stricken club.

Pitcher and first basemen option for the Astros

Previously on Astros County...

Now it's time to look at pitcher first basemen options, based on MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents and Predictions article. I would like to reiterate that we're only looking at free agents based on the interest identified by MLB Trade Rumors.

We'll start at first basemen, because that's the first name to pop-up.

Edwin Encarnacion - At the end of last article we had about $14.5MM to spare. Signing Edwin Encarnacion would likely blow up signing several free agents as he's predicted to sign with the Red Sox $23MM annually. It was pointed out that I was too focused on handedness when looking at free agents. And that's fair, but I also think shouldn't be overlooked. If they ignore handedness in the offseason, I'm sure we'll be writing and reading articles about how the Astros lineup isn't balanced enough. Blah, blah, blah. Handedness aside, Encarnacion is 33 years old and should probably be in the designated hitter role at this point in his career. Still he'd add some above average offense to the Astros lineup at first base. Something we haven't seen much of in a while at that position. I don't see a great fit, but hey I wouldn't mind seeing him walk the parrot in a Houston uniform.

Luis Valbuena - He'll be 31 next season. MLB Trade Rumors has him to the Brewers for $7MM annually. He'd fit nicely into the budget and would have the versatility to play third or first base. He can certainly be a frustrating player to watch, but when he's on he's a lot of fun. The question is if he'll be the hitter that was having a career year before going down with an injury or the average hitter he's been over his career. Average production at first would be an improvement for the Astros. I wouldn't be upset to see him resign with the Astros.

If the Astros want to upgrade at first the more likely chance is via trade.The Astros have a lot of young talented options for the rotation. Chris Devenski and Michael Feliz are too such options. Here are the potential free agents that could help anchor the rotation in 2017 (I get to drop my handeness fetish here).

Jeremy Hellickson - Entering his age 30 season, he had a career year for the Phillies. Posting a 3.2 WAR in 189 innings. He's predicted to pitch for the Rangers (boo!) at $15MM annually. Hellickson has a qualifying offer attached to him this year, unless things change with the CBA. Meaning, if the Astros sign him they'll lose their top pick in the 2017 draft. Considering they're at the backend of the round, maybe not a bad thing. He'll provide the rotation with innings and a sub four ERA.

Rich Hill - After pitching 195 innings in 2007 for the Cubs, Hill struggled to stay healthy. Over the next nine season he would fail to reach even 60 innings pitched with stops in Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Los Angeles (Anaheim), and New York. This season he pitched 110 1/3 innings for Oakland and Los Angeles. Next season will be his age 37 season. He's predicted to sign with the Yankees for about $17MM annually. He's a left-handed sexy strikeout pitcher which explains the high price tag for a guy who is old and has struggled to stay healthy.

Jason Hammel - 34 years old next year. He's predicted to go to the Braves for $14MM annually. He's been a sub four ERA guy the last few years with the Cubs. Over his career he's been in the mid-four ERA range. He would be a solid edition for the backend of the rotation.

Travis Wood - Previously a starter, he's spent the last couple years in the Cubs bullpen. He is left-handed, which would fill the Astros need for a left-hander in the bullpen. He could also be turned back into a starter. Entering his age 30 season, he is predicted to sign with the Marlins for $7MM annually. He's a flyball pitcher with a four ERA over 900 innings.

Charlie Morton - He just turned 33 (a belated Happy Birthday!). He's predicted to sign with the Royals for one year at $8MM annually. He's a groundball pitcher with some strikeout ability. If you're looking for an under-the-radar sign that could bring a nice payoff, this is it.