Who We Got
Chicago: 5-6, 3rd place, 2GB
At home: 3-2
Vs. Houston: 1-1
Runs scored/Against: 50/55
Houston: 2-9, 6th place, 5GB
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 25/55
Ryan Dempster: 1-0, 4.38 ERA / 1.30 WHIP
Last two games:
(vMIL - Apr 12) 6.1IP, 7H/5ER, 5K:4BB
(@ATL - Apr 7) 6IP, 3H/1ER, 9K:2BB
Wandy Rodriguez: 0-2, 6.10 ERA / 1.74 WHIP
Last two games:
(@STL - Apr 12) 4.1IP, 7H/4ER, 0K:2BB
(vSF - Apr 6) 6IP, 7H/3ER, 4K:4BB
Why the Astros Will Win
Because the Astros hit Dempster to a .297/.346/.419 line. Hunter Pence is 8x23 (.348/.348/.652), and Carlos Lee is 8x24 (.333/.333/.542). Expect Jeff Keppinger to get another start today - he's 9x18 with two doubles against Dempster lifetime.
Because Dempster in 51 plate appearances, Dempster has thrown 25 first-pitch strikes (22 FPBs, and four first-pitch swinging). When he throws an FPS, batters are 7x25 with 4XBH).
Because, while Wandy has had four straight NDs against Chicago, he has a 2.84 ERA against the Cubs in his last five starts. His last start at Wrigley was July 27, when he threw 7IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:2BB.
Why the Astros Will Lose
Because Dempster has given up a slash line of .222/.327/.400 in two starts this season.
Because Wandy has had some trouble with walks, and this Cubs team knows how to walk against Wandy - drawing 17. And Derrek Lee is .483/.568/.897 lifetime against Wandy.
First-pitch balls. Wandy has thrown 19 of them, and has been tagged to a .467/.579/.667 line after doing so.
Or because of Wandy's history at Wrigley. I know it was a Why They'll Win, but Wandy is 1-3 in six starts at Wrigley, with a 6.68 ERA / 1.74 WHIP.