Saturday, April 17, 2010

Who we got - G11: Astros @ Cubs

The Astros are trying to avoid this whole, "Lose-Eight-Win-One" thing with an early start at Wrigley today, sending Roy to the mound.

Who We Got

Chicago: 5-5, 2nd place, 2GB
At home: 3-1
Vs. Houston: 1-0
Runs scored/Against: 47/51

Houston: 1-9, 6th place, 6GB
Road: 1-3
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 21/52

Starting Pitchers

Tom Gorzelanny: 0-0, 0.00 ERA / 0.95 WHIP
Last game: @CIN. 6.1IP, 4H/0ER (1R), 7K:2BB

Roy Oswalt: 0-2, 3.75 ERA / 1.33 WHIP
Last game: vPHI.: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:2BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because in 2009, Roy made four starts against the Cubs (one was his injury-shortened start in July) and threw 20IP, 19H/8ER, 14K:2BB. And he hasn't lost at Wrigley since September 2008.

Because in 317 plate appearances, crurrent Cubs are hitting .241/.263/.408 against Roy. Aramis Ramirez has a .695 OPS, Soriano - .692.

Because Tom Gorzelanny needs a lot of pitches to get through innings. His last outing was a 98-pitch, 6.1IP outing, his longest since August 4. So the quicker the Astros can get to the Cubs' bullpen, the better.

Because the Astros hit Gorzelanny to a .289/.364/.553 line. Carlos Lee is 3x7 with a home run.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because they still can't hit. I don't know that I've ever seen an offense this futile.

Because Gorzelanny dominated against the Reds on April 11. He threw 62 of his 98 pitches for strikes, and 26 of them were non-contact strikes.

Because Gorzelanny gets groundballs, and the Astros like to hit groundballs. He got the Reds to hit ten groundballs, compared to six flyballs - and seven strikeouts.

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