Thursday, April 22, 2010

Who We Got - G15: Astros v. Marlins

Who We Got

Florida: 8-7, 3rd place, 1.5GB
On the Road: 4-5
Vs. Houston: 0-1
Last ten games: 5-5
Runs scored/Against: 78/76

Houston: 5-9, 6th place, 4.5GB
At Home: 2-6
Last ten games: 5-5
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 42/69

Starting Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez: 0-1, 6.75 ERA / 1.67 WHIP
Last two games:
(@PHI- Apr 16) 6IP, 8H/5ER, 1K:4BB
(vLAD - Apr 11) 6IP, 7H/4ER, 5K:1BB

Felipe Paulino: 0-1, 7.36 ERA / 1.55 WHIP
Last two games:
(@CHC - Apr 16) 6IP, 6H/5ER, 3K:3BB
(vPHI - Apr 10) 5IP, 4H/4ER, 4K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because Felipe Paulino isn't as bad as his stats would lead you to believe. Against Philadelphia, Jayson Werth sac'ed in Ryan Howard, who tripled to left. So thank Carlos Lee for watching that rattle around. He did walk in the second run, and a groundball got through to score runs 3/4. Against Chicago, the RBI double to Carlos Silva is inexcusable, and things fell apart in the 7th, where he left the bases loaded. All three runs scored. My point? It's not like Paulino is getting overmatched. Just a slip here and there, where the bullpen kind of let him down. Granted, nobody should leave the bases loaded with no outs, but still...

Because Paulino has only ever faced Jorge Cantu. He got a double in two ABs, but whatever. Nod goes to the pitcher here. Anibal Sanchez has only ever faced Carlos Lee and Pedro Feliz (0x9, combined). So maybe this is "Why Neither Pitcher Will Get Out of the 3rd."

Because this season (limited sample size, I know), 3-4-5 hitters are 8x17 off Anibal Sanchez. Or because Sanchez' pitch selection favors the aggressive. And we all know the Astros like to swing that bat early and often. When swinging at the first pitch, Sanchez has given up five hits in nine instances.

Or because, away from SunLife/Margaritaville Stadium - or wherever the Marlins play - Sanchez is 8-12 with a 4.53 ERA / 1.60 WHIP (11-6, 3.40 ERA/1.31 WHIP at home).

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because Paulino, in 49 plate appearances by the opposition, has been behind of the batter in 24 PAs. In 13 of those PAs, he's run the count full. And when the batter is ahead, said batter is hitting to a tune of .294/.500/.529.

Because with the bases empty, batters are hitting .192/.250/.385 off Paulino. But when runners are on base, that goes up to .357/.500/.571.

Because against teams in which Sanchez has pitched more than once, his ERA is lowest at Minute Maid Park. In two starts against Houston, he's 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. 12IP, 6H/1ER, 5K:7BB.

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