Shorter Hot Links are in effect until I figure out this new morning routine where I have to get my daughter ready for school.
*24 hours after Josh Reddick said they were just tired of waiting for the bats to wake up, they got put back to sleep by Patrick Corbin, who held this offense to four hits (two from Marisnick). Astros lost 4-0. They are 74-47, 12 games up on the Angels / 4.5 up on the Red Sox. There are 41 games remaining.
*Corbin almost CGSHO'd the Astros (8.2IP), who required just 112 pitches to get their 27 outs. Alex Bregman saw eight pitches in four plate appearances.
*But everyone was mad about the umpires - particularly home plate umpire Paul Nauert - in his interpretation of the strike zone, particularly in Archie Bradley's pitches to Marwin in the last out of the game. Full disclosure: I didn't see it. I was at work. Click the link to see the three called strikes. Hinch:
I know we're not supposed to talk about the umpires, but, honestly, today, to have the 27th out be taken away...it ain't fair...I'm tired of our guys getting taken to task for knowing the strike zone. That's not the reason we lost today. That's not the reason that we've had a tough week, but it's garbage when you start getting at-bats taken away from you.
Marwin:
All I can say is I should not be the one talking about where the pitch was. Everyone saw where it was. In any case, it should be the guy behind the plate answering that question.
Fiers:
I think it was one-sided; it was tough. We felt like we didn't get the pitches we should've got. And the same way at the plate. It's tough when the zone is that big for them and it shrinks for your guys.
This, to me, sounds like an awful lot of frustration at one at-bat that is the culmination of a pretty rough two-week stretch. Like bursting into tears and punching inanimate objects when you run out of toothpaste, or see that your shoes are untied. It's not so much the toothpaste or the shoes as it is the final straw of frustration that makes you break your hand by punching your front door. The Astros have played 26 games in 28 days.
*Altuve:
If I see myself playing, I haven't been so good in the last five days. Even during the game, I was thinking about going home tonight and [thinking] about it.
*Congratulations to Max Stassi, who broke a streak of 29 straight stolen bases against Astros catchers, when he threw out A.J. Pollock.
*There was some weirdness about Hinch and McCullers when they were asked about McCullers' next step in his now two-week DL stint for back soreness.
*Colin Moran could return in September.
*Jeff Passan: Trade talks with Detroit for Verlander are at a standstill.
*Jon Heyman writes that the Astros never made a single offer for Jose Quintana, and weren't very serious about Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish.
*Forrest Whitley made his Double-A debut last night, and it was okay, if you're into that sort of thing: 6IP, 2H/0ER, 11K:0BB. He threw 61 of his 92 pitches for strikes. Corpus lost 2-1 on an 8th inning error. A "reliable exec" told Peter Gammons that Whitley is the "best pitching prospect anywhere."
*The Astros did a cool thing for 9-year old Cameron Gooch.
*Jake Marisnick explained the "Big Fudge" nickname.
*Sam Miller: How an epic trick play broke baseball.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Jose Quintana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jose Quintana. Show all posts
Friday, August 18, 2017
Thursday, August 3, 2017
So who was traded at the deadline (and who do they compare to in the Astros' system?)
The "fallout" from the trade deadline continued today, with a variety of opinions coming to light. Dallas Keuchel said something, then took the loss after he gave up three ER in five innings of work. I didn't see or listen to the game, so I can't really comment, but he needed 87 pitches to finish five frames of work, walking two while striking out the same number, and recording 8 ground balls against 5 fly balls. He also gave up one home run. Hardly vintage Keuchel.
Ken Rosenthal also used his extensive industry contacts to shed more light on the Astros' inactivity at the deadline. The take home messages are that the Orioles suck to trade with, and that a second deal for a previously unmentioned high-end reliever also fell apart. If that was the case, then that perhaps sheds some light on the kind of deadline it was for the Front Office. Which is: about as frustrating as some of the fans and players may found it.
I recorded my thoughts on the deadline a few days ago. I guess these were focussed mainly on the lack of acquisition for a front-line starting pitcher, and how the Dodgers operate with their awesome farm system, amazing core (with youth) and unlimited monetary resources. The County Mountie also wrote about the Astros and their recent history at the trade deadline, and the take-home message for me is that nothing is certain at the deadline whatever you do. Stuff can go wrong in a hurry, regardless of whether you make a move, or sit tight.
Look, I am not a Front Office apologist, but I see the sense in doing less in terms of trading prospects at this point in time, rather than more. I also think that the prices for the teams that traded for assets are a little higher than what we realise. Consider this: as Astros fans, we all read the awesome work at What the Heck, Bobby and Astros Future, and because of this, we know who Franklin Perez and Framber Valdez are. We know about Garrett Stubbs and Jake Rogers battling it out to replace Brian McCann at the end of the 2018 season. We get excited about Jason Martin coming from nowhere into prospects lists. We can see Forrest Whitley throwing 250 innings of 3 ERA ball for much of the next decade, given his size, velocity and developing secondary pitches.
We are the most familiar with these guys. And, because of the concentration of media on some of the other markets (looking at you, New York and Boston), we know a little bit about the prospects in some major cities too. It is obvious for those following baseball outside the US that prospects in those cities are overhyped compared with prospects inside teams in smaller markets, mostly because multiple media outlets compete for original content, and writing a puff piece about someone who will redefine the game from their placement in AA is an easy filler story. Then the fans read that story, and think they have the second coming of Derek Jeter on their hands. The Astros don't have that same buzz, and therefore their is less hyping of their farm system.
But many of the guys traded on or prior to Monday we are probably less familiar with. I am interested in comparing some of those guys to players in the farm system that we are familiar with (the Astros system). This may allow us to more accurately put faces to names, and allow us to estimate the cost for each player using a currency that we are more familiar with. I don't have an axe to grind here - this is a genuine Socratic piece of questioning in an effort to explore what some major pieces could have cost.
So lets look at the trades of Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana and Addison Reed. We will mostly use prospect rankings from the major publicly available organisations (Baseball American most often) and Fangraphs' Future Value ranking (FV). This uses a single number to estimate the quality of the prospects, kind of like how WAR puts a single number of a player's performance but often leaves more questions than answers in doing so. The main problem with this technique is that we have to use the FV's from the beginning of the season for both trades, and a lot can change in that time. Kyle Tucker, for instance, was rated as having a 55FV at the beginning of the year - he may have jumped up a grade, given his body of work at AA as a 20-year old.
According to Fangraphs, the Astros' farm system at the beginning of the year looked something like this:
60 FV: Francis Martes
55 FV: Kyle Tucker
50 FV: Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, Ramon Laureano, David Paulino
45 FV: Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Gilberto Celestino, Daz Cameron, Miguelangel Sierra
40 FV: Lionel Perez, Garrett Stubbs, Jandel Gustave, JD Davis, Ronnie Dawson, Framber Valdez, Hector Perez, Freud Nova, Jake Rogers, Lupe Chavez
Alright. Ready??
Trade 1: Jose Quintana for Elroy Jimenez (60 FV), Dylan Cease (45 FV), Matt Rose, Bryan Flete
Elroy Jimenez is nearly universally more highly rated than Kyle Tucker. He was ranked 5th prospect in baseball by BA and 8th by BP (Tucker was 11th and 14th respectively). More power, but likely less value in the field as he seems confined to LF. Some minor concerns about his strikeout rate. Elite bat, though. Kyle Tucker or Francis Martes comparisons are the only appropriate ones here.
Dylan Cease made the BA top-100 list (83rd), and apparently has a 70 grade fastball. But there are some concerns, as he is 21 and playing in Low-A. Hard to find a comparison here for Cease - Forrest Whitley is the closest placed Astro on the BA Top 100 list (58), whereas the preseason FV's suggest perhaps a Framber Valdez could be a similar pitching matchup. Dunno. Perhaps if we take the lesser-ranked Tucker, we need to take the higher-ranked Whitley to even it all out.
The remaining prospects seem like lottery tickets. I am not going to estimate them, as we have a great idea of the cost, I think.
Verdict: Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley, or Francis Martes and Framber Valdez, plus perhaps a couple of other players. Pick your poison. That seems expensive.
Trade 2: Yu Darvish for Willie Calhoun, AJ Alex and Brendon Davis
Willie Calhoun is the prize here. There is no simple way of putting this: he is short, stocky and can't run the bases or play the field. The scouts don't like him, because he represents a bat without a position. BA had him as #74, midseason. But the more statistical prospect evaluations love him, a and Fangraphs had him as the second best prospect traded at the deadline, behind the abovementioned Jimenez. He possesses a 55 FV, suggesting that Kyle Tucker comps are not unreasonable. He is closer to the majors, but has less value in the field and on the bases than Tucker.
AJ Alexy is 19 and is thought to have a number 4 or 5 starter upside. 45 FV, apparently. Again the Astros have no 45 FV pitchers currently, so perhaps take your pick between a pre-PED David Paulino and Framber Valdez. Hard to find an exact match.
Brendan Davis is a future corner infielder with some swing-and-miss, but some projectable power. He is only 20, and has managed to double his walk rate this year. 40 FV, apparently. An interesting prospect, but a lot of risk it seems. A less-advanced JD Davis may be a good comp.
Verdict: Tucker, Paulino / Valdez and Davis for two months of Yu Darvish. Anyone? This seems, uh, steep.
Trade 3: Sonny Gray for James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler and Jorge Mateo
This one is a hard trade to evaluate. The Yankees acquired a starter whose arm could disintegrate at any moment and leave them with a valuable dust-like substance. The A's acquired two high injury risks, and one current performance risk. Both teams could look like bandits in a year or two here, and both could also look like they got hosed in a year or two. Note is made that the three prospects traded by the Yankees were ranked 4, 6 and 7 in their preseason rankings.
Perhaps you should just click this link. James Kaprielian could be a #1 power starter, or he may not return from injury as well as hoped. He has, potentially, four plus pitches combined with above-average velocity. He attracted a 50 FV on Fangraphs, but this was bumped down a little because of the injury risk. Hard to rank - I am guessing that a Franklin Perez comparison would be best, as he is the furtherest from the majors (and therefore the riskiest) of the 50 FV pitchers that the Astros have. This may be a little low.
Dustin Fowler was #89 on BA's top 100 list, and attracted a 50 FV from Fangraphs. He famously dissected his patellar tendon on the top of a Chicago wall during his ML debut, prior to his first plate appearance. The medical buzz is that this is a more serious knee injury than an intracapsular injury (such as an ACL tear), but I don't see it in my professional medical opinion (although I skipped most leg anatomy lectures in medical school - long story, don't ask). Patellar tendons or the more common injury of fractured kneecaps are repaired all the time. I can't see his knee being an ongoing issue. The counter argument is that speed is such an important component of Fowler's game that he can't afford to lose any. You decide.
So, 50 FV, an CF with speed, average power and plus contact. What is not to like?? This sounds like Derek Fisher to me (although he was #54 on BA's list, so perhaps a little too high). Don't like him?? How about Ramon Laureano (not ranked by BA, so perhaps imperfect in the opposite direction to Fisher).
Jorge Mateo is a middle infielder who is lightning quick - Billy Hamilton quick. He is blocked to a degree because of Gleyber Torres' presence at SS. The A's may shift him to CF to make his speed play up. He has struggled a little with the bat this year, and some shine appears to have come off his prospect status. Not ranked by BA, but Fangraphs has a 50 FV on him. Miguelangel Sierra seems to be the closest Astro to him, but he has a 45 FV. So again, an imperfect comparison.
Verdict: Looks like Franklin Perez, Derek Fisher and Miguelangel Sierra is the best fit for Sonny Grey. Anyone keen to bite?
Trade 4: Addison Reed for Jamie Callahan, Stephen Nogosek and Gerson Bautista
BA, shockingly, ranks none of the prospects that the Mets received in exchange for Addison Reed in their top 100. Fangraphs says little about them, too, ranking them all as 40 FV or below. Gerson Bautista, prior to the season, was the Red Sox's #15 prospect (first of the "other prospects of note"), and records a 95-99 mph fastball velocity along with a PED suspension. Nogosek also gets a pre-season honourable mention, noting that he is a "hard throwing right-on-right reliever". Callahan is described as having an unusual action, and being a "potential relief asset".
We are digging around in the bowels of the Astros' system here. I have no idea, but let's pretend that these three remind us of Patrick Sandoval, Dean Deetz and Riley Ferrell. I have a hat, and I am picking names out of it, so feel free to criticise. This is not an exact process.
Verdict: Patrick Sandoval, Dean Deetz and Riley Ferrell. I could stomach this, but Deetz has the upside of a starter, Sandoval is a lefty, and Ferrell seemed interesting until his arm problems, which should be fixable. I could also see this move backfiring should the Astros have made it.
Conclusion: This is not a good way of evaluating these trades, but at the least it was an interesting exercise. Before y'all get all apoplectic with rage, I just want to point out that the Astros that we try and value against the players given up are based on their pre-season evaluations. So remember how Kyle Tucker and Francis Martes made you feel prior to the season?? Compare these guys to that.
And although this isn't perfect, I hope that it puts a face on the prospect cost that the Astros might have faced. Some of these seem steep to me, aside from the Addison Reed trade, which is also the hardest to value. I certainly am not interested in trading for Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish at those potential prices. Jose Quintana seems a little more palatable, but pre-season Kyle Tucker was also considered a lesser prospect that Elroy Jimenez, so perhaps the Astros would have struggled to pull this one off in an manner equal to what the Cubs did.
Anyhow, this was interesting for me, at least. So, discuss in the comments, and argue some more, Astros fans. Thanks, again, for reading.
Ken Rosenthal also used his extensive industry contacts to shed more light on the Astros' inactivity at the deadline. The take home messages are that the Orioles suck to trade with, and that a second deal for a previously unmentioned high-end reliever also fell apart. If that was the case, then that perhaps sheds some light on the kind of deadline it was for the Front Office. Which is: about as frustrating as some of the fans and players may found it.
I recorded my thoughts on the deadline a few days ago. I guess these were focussed mainly on the lack of acquisition for a front-line starting pitcher, and how the Dodgers operate with their awesome farm system, amazing core (with youth) and unlimited monetary resources. The County Mountie also wrote about the Astros and their recent history at the trade deadline, and the take-home message for me is that nothing is certain at the deadline whatever you do. Stuff can go wrong in a hurry, regardless of whether you make a move, or sit tight.
Look, I am not a Front Office apologist, but I see the sense in doing less in terms of trading prospects at this point in time, rather than more. I also think that the prices for the teams that traded for assets are a little higher than what we realise. Consider this: as Astros fans, we all read the awesome work at What the Heck, Bobby and Astros Future, and because of this, we know who Franklin Perez and Framber Valdez are. We know about Garrett Stubbs and Jake Rogers battling it out to replace Brian McCann at the end of the 2018 season. We get excited about Jason Martin coming from nowhere into prospects lists. We can see Forrest Whitley throwing 250 innings of 3 ERA ball for much of the next decade, given his size, velocity and developing secondary pitches.
We are the most familiar with these guys. And, because of the concentration of media on some of the other markets (looking at you, New York and Boston), we know a little bit about the prospects in some major cities too. It is obvious for those following baseball outside the US that prospects in those cities are overhyped compared with prospects inside teams in smaller markets, mostly because multiple media outlets compete for original content, and writing a puff piece about someone who will redefine the game from their placement in AA is an easy filler story. Then the fans read that story, and think they have the second coming of Derek Jeter on their hands. The Astros don't have that same buzz, and therefore their is less hyping of their farm system.
But many of the guys traded on or prior to Monday we are probably less familiar with. I am interested in comparing some of those guys to players in the farm system that we are familiar with (the Astros system). This may allow us to more accurately put faces to names, and allow us to estimate the cost for each player using a currency that we are more familiar with. I don't have an axe to grind here - this is a genuine Socratic piece of questioning in an effort to explore what some major pieces could have cost.
So lets look at the trades of Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana and Addison Reed. We will mostly use prospect rankings from the major publicly available organisations (Baseball American most often) and Fangraphs' Future Value ranking (FV). This uses a single number to estimate the quality of the prospects, kind of like how WAR puts a single number of a player's performance but often leaves more questions than answers in doing so. The main problem with this technique is that we have to use the FV's from the beginning of the season for both trades, and a lot can change in that time. Kyle Tucker, for instance, was rated as having a 55FV at the beginning of the year - he may have jumped up a grade, given his body of work at AA as a 20-year old.
According to Fangraphs, the Astros' farm system at the beginning of the year looked something like this:
60 FV: Francis Martes
55 FV: Kyle Tucker
50 FV: Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, Ramon Laureano, David Paulino
45 FV: Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Gilberto Celestino, Daz Cameron, Miguelangel Sierra
40 FV: Lionel Perez, Garrett Stubbs, Jandel Gustave, JD Davis, Ronnie Dawson, Framber Valdez, Hector Perez, Freud Nova, Jake Rogers, Lupe Chavez
Alright. Ready??
Trade 1: Jose Quintana for Elroy Jimenez (60 FV), Dylan Cease (45 FV), Matt Rose, Bryan Flete
Elroy Jimenez is nearly universally more highly rated than Kyle Tucker. He was ranked 5th prospect in baseball by BA and 8th by BP (Tucker was 11th and 14th respectively). More power, but likely less value in the field as he seems confined to LF. Some minor concerns about his strikeout rate. Elite bat, though. Kyle Tucker or Francis Martes comparisons are the only appropriate ones here.
Dylan Cease made the BA top-100 list (83rd), and apparently has a 70 grade fastball. But there are some concerns, as he is 21 and playing in Low-A. Hard to find a comparison here for Cease - Forrest Whitley is the closest placed Astro on the BA Top 100 list (58), whereas the preseason FV's suggest perhaps a Framber Valdez could be a similar pitching matchup. Dunno. Perhaps if we take the lesser-ranked Tucker, we need to take the higher-ranked Whitley to even it all out.
The remaining prospects seem like lottery tickets. I am not going to estimate them, as we have a great idea of the cost, I think.
Verdict: Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley, or Francis Martes and Framber Valdez, plus perhaps a couple of other players. Pick your poison. That seems expensive.
Trade 2: Yu Darvish for Willie Calhoun, AJ Alex and Brendon Davis
Willie Calhoun is the prize here. There is no simple way of putting this: he is short, stocky and can't run the bases or play the field. The scouts don't like him, because he represents a bat without a position. BA had him as #74, midseason. But the more statistical prospect evaluations love him, a and Fangraphs had him as the second best prospect traded at the deadline, behind the abovementioned Jimenez. He possesses a 55 FV, suggesting that Kyle Tucker comps are not unreasonable. He is closer to the majors, but has less value in the field and on the bases than Tucker.
AJ Alexy is 19 and is thought to have a number 4 or 5 starter upside. 45 FV, apparently. Again the Astros have no 45 FV pitchers currently, so perhaps take your pick between a pre-PED David Paulino and Framber Valdez. Hard to find an exact match.
Brendan Davis is a future corner infielder with some swing-and-miss, but some projectable power. He is only 20, and has managed to double his walk rate this year. 40 FV, apparently. An interesting prospect, but a lot of risk it seems. A less-advanced JD Davis may be a good comp.
Verdict: Tucker, Paulino / Valdez and Davis for two months of Yu Darvish. Anyone? This seems, uh, steep.
Trade 3: Sonny Gray for James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler and Jorge Mateo
This one is a hard trade to evaluate. The Yankees acquired a starter whose arm could disintegrate at any moment and leave them with a valuable dust-like substance. The A's acquired two high injury risks, and one current performance risk. Both teams could look like bandits in a year or two here, and both could also look like they got hosed in a year or two. Note is made that the three prospects traded by the Yankees were ranked 4, 6 and 7 in their preseason rankings.
Perhaps you should just click this link. James Kaprielian could be a #1 power starter, or he may not return from injury as well as hoped. He has, potentially, four plus pitches combined with above-average velocity. He attracted a 50 FV on Fangraphs, but this was bumped down a little because of the injury risk. Hard to rank - I am guessing that a Franklin Perez comparison would be best, as he is the furtherest from the majors (and therefore the riskiest) of the 50 FV pitchers that the Astros have. This may be a little low.
Dustin Fowler was #89 on BA's top 100 list, and attracted a 50 FV from Fangraphs. He famously dissected his patellar tendon on the top of a Chicago wall during his ML debut, prior to his first plate appearance. The medical buzz is that this is a more serious knee injury than an intracapsular injury (such as an ACL tear), but I don't see it in my professional medical opinion (although I skipped most leg anatomy lectures in medical school - long story, don't ask). Patellar tendons or the more common injury of fractured kneecaps are repaired all the time. I can't see his knee being an ongoing issue. The counter argument is that speed is such an important component of Fowler's game that he can't afford to lose any. You decide.
So, 50 FV, an CF with speed, average power and plus contact. What is not to like?? This sounds like Derek Fisher to me (although he was #54 on BA's list, so perhaps a little too high). Don't like him?? How about Ramon Laureano (not ranked by BA, so perhaps imperfect in the opposite direction to Fisher).
Jorge Mateo is a middle infielder who is lightning quick - Billy Hamilton quick. He is blocked to a degree because of Gleyber Torres' presence at SS. The A's may shift him to CF to make his speed play up. He has struggled a little with the bat this year, and some shine appears to have come off his prospect status. Not ranked by BA, but Fangraphs has a 50 FV on him. Miguelangel Sierra seems to be the closest Astro to him, but he has a 45 FV. So again, an imperfect comparison.
Verdict: Looks like Franklin Perez, Derek Fisher and Miguelangel Sierra is the best fit for Sonny Grey. Anyone keen to bite?
Trade 4: Addison Reed for Jamie Callahan, Stephen Nogosek and Gerson Bautista
BA, shockingly, ranks none of the prospects that the Mets received in exchange for Addison Reed in their top 100. Fangraphs says little about them, too, ranking them all as 40 FV or below. Gerson Bautista, prior to the season, was the Red Sox's #15 prospect (first of the "other prospects of note"), and records a 95-99 mph fastball velocity along with a PED suspension. Nogosek also gets a pre-season honourable mention, noting that he is a "hard throwing right-on-right reliever". Callahan is described as having an unusual action, and being a "potential relief asset".
We are digging around in the bowels of the Astros' system here. I have no idea, but let's pretend that these three remind us of Patrick Sandoval, Dean Deetz and Riley Ferrell. I have a hat, and I am picking names out of it, so feel free to criticise. This is not an exact process.
Verdict: Patrick Sandoval, Dean Deetz and Riley Ferrell. I could stomach this, but Deetz has the upside of a starter, Sandoval is a lefty, and Ferrell seemed interesting until his arm problems, which should be fixable. I could also see this move backfiring should the Astros have made it.
Conclusion: This is not a good way of evaluating these trades, but at the least it was an interesting exercise. Before y'all get all apoplectic with rage, I just want to point out that the Astros that we try and value against the players given up are based on their pre-season evaluations. So remember how Kyle Tucker and Francis Martes made you feel prior to the season?? Compare these guys to that.
And although this isn't perfect, I hope that it puts a face on the prospect cost that the Astros might have faced. Some of these seem steep to me, aside from the Addison Reed trade, which is also the hardest to value. I certainly am not interested in trading for Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish at those potential prices. Jose Quintana seems a little more palatable, but pre-season Kyle Tucker was also considered a lesser prospect that Elroy Jimenez, so perhaps the Astros would have struggled to pull this one off in an manner equal to what the Cubs did.
Anyhow, this was interesting for me, at least. So, discuss in the comments, and argue some more, Astros fans. Thanks, again, for reading.
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
On the Astros' Trade Deadline
As you would have heard by now, the Astros are a bunch of incompetent hacks who know nothing about baseball. They worship prospects, and as such, greedily wouldn't trade any of them to another organisation to acquire the 2017 version of 1998 Randy Johnson. Useless!
Tyler sums it up nicely:
And the Constable, as always, has a wonderful #hawttake:
And so while there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth last night on Astros Twitter, some much-loved analysts had some nuanced, more balanced takes:
Most of the concern seemed to be principally around how three quality starting pitchers shifted teams in the weeks prior to the trade deadline. Yu Darvish went to the Dodgers, Sonny Gray to the Yankees and José Quintana to the Cubs. At times, the Astros have been linked to all of them - well, definitely the latter two, although Quintana was mostly in the offseason. It is possible the Astros and the Rangers would have hooked up on a Darvish trade had the price been right (remember Carlos Corporan for Akeem Bostick), but it was mostly speculation on the part of the pundits that had the Astros interested in the pending FA from South Grapevine.
The Astros made one move, and it was a pretty reasonable one in my opinion. They acquired Francisco Liriano and cash from the Jays, in exchange for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez. In doing so, they cleared the way for Derek Fisher - who has impressed over the course of 2017 - to play everyday (or something approaching that), and freed up a 40-man spot. Hernandez could be good, but he was not the Astros' top outfield prospect by any stretch (or even in the top 4). They also have 38 (by my count) on the 40-man roster, with a couple of guys that would be good candidates to be released / clear waivers (looking at you, Tony Sipp). So that offers them some flexibility to get some cheap innings eaters before the end of the season.
So... Liriano. I think it was no secret that the Astros were in on pretty much every relief lefty with some velocity on the trade market. Justin Wilson and Zach Britton were the main prizes at this deadline. Wilson went to the Cubs a few days ago (along with pending FA Alex Avila) for a couple of top prospects. Britton stayed put, with a number to tweets referring to the ever-increasing prices for him, or referencing Jeff Luhnow saying that they got 90% of the way to getting a deal done, but other teams just wanted too much. Plus, the Orioles had a very strange deadline - sort of acquiring two middling players but neither buying, nor selling, nor addressing their obvious problems with starting pitching. Extremely odd.
Fangraphs likes the Liriano acquisition... as long as he isn't being used as a starting pitcher. Travis Sawchik makes a great point in this article - Liriano is death on lefties, but is being murdered by righties. Also, his stuff may play up a little in a shorter role, so perhaps he can be trusted with an inning where there are two lefties projected to bat in the inning in a close game. Or perhaps he is just a LOOGY. Regardless, I think this was a nice pivot by the Front Office by eschewing costly lefty relievers and thinking outside the box. I like it, and there is no way the prospect cost was too great, or crippling for future Astros teams.
I guess I principally wanted to make some points about the Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs. First up, lets talk about the Dodgers, who had a quintessential Dodgers day. The Dodgers have an awesome amount of financial resources, a strong farm system, and a great team with what looks like a core of young and mid-career star players. What they have done over the last few years is spend big to amass significant depth, ignoring injury risk. Their rotation has been - in recent years, Clayton Kershaw followed by whomever is healthy and has a pulse. Could be Scott Kazmir, could be Rich Hill, could be Brandon McCarthy. They seem to have had a clear plan to throw big money at often-injured starters, and use their depth to mix and match depending on who is available.
Well, the Dodgers did it again, volume-wise, at this deadline They acquired not only Yu Darvish, but also bullpen lefties Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani. And if that isn't enough for you, they also signed FA lefty Tommy Layne. In return, they gave up Scott Van Slyke, Hendrik Clementina, Oneil Cruz, Angel German, Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis - or, according to Fangraphs' preseason prospects, a major-leaguer, their #6 prospect, and four "notable mentions". One potential big-time prospect dealt by LA for a top-flight starter for two months, a lefty who lost his closing job, and a struggling lefty swingman / starter. Nice work, but these deals seem to be mostly about volume and continuing the "throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks" philosophy.
The Yankees and Cubs are a different story. They acquired solid starting pitchers with a few years of control in exchange for decent prospect hauls. The White Sox did well, getting one solid blue-chipper and a second good prospect, whereas the A's took on ceiling, but injury-risk.
But the Cubs and Yankees have two things in common. Thing one: they are in dogfights for their divisions, and there is no guarantee that they will even make their respective postseasons. Thing two: check out their 2017 rotations and how long the starters near the top are signed for...
Cubs:
Jon Lester - signed through 2020
Jake Arrieta - FA this offseason
John Lackey - FA this offseason
Kyle Hendricks - controllable through 2021
Eddie Bulter - controllable through 2022
Also: Mike Montgomery - controllable through 2022, but no one wants him starting regularly
Yankees:
Luis Severino - controllable through 2023
Masahiro Tanaka - signed through 2020, but opt-out option this year
Michael Pineda - signed through 2018, but unlikely to pitch before then because of injury
Jordan Montgomery - controllable through 2023
CC Sabathia - FA this offseason
So both teams face losing some top-of-the-rotation starters to free agency (or injury) for next year. And the pending free agents on the above lists have struggled this season, too, so this is not a simple case of re-signing what you are losing. The Yankees also may lose Tanaka to an opt-out, and given that the starting pitching FA class is not a strong one, Tanaka may want to use it for another shot at free agency. Also, neither of these teams would want to approach the offseason with a clear need that could easily be exploited by a Scott Boras-like agent, as they are both teams known to pay well when needed. Both teams could have anticipated being fleeced this offseason if they had to sign two starting pitchers, and no one wants to be in that position, as you either spend too much, or sign someone for too long. Either way, it sucks.
At this juncture, lets (i) note that the Astros are NOT in a division dogfight in 2017 and are nearly certain to make the playoffs and (ii) look at the 2017 Astros rotation going forward:
Dallas Keuchel - controllable through 2019
Lance McCullers Jr - controllable through 2022
Collin McHugh - controllable through 2020
Charlie Morton - controllable through 2018
Mike Fiers - controllable through 2020
Plus....
Joe Musgrove - controllable through 2023
Brad Peacock - controllable through 2021
Francis Martes - controllable through 2023
So the Astros have 8 starting pitching options next year, all of whom are controllable for at least two years. This group of Astros starters have proven that they can prevent runs in line with the top rotations in baseball when healthy, despite being relatively unheralded and unsexy. Or: this is a quietly good set of arms backed up by a great offense. So I would argue that this was not the time to add a controllable starter to the Astros, because of a mix of their effectiveness and their contract status. Particularly if it was going to cost a Forrest Whitley, a Franklin Perez or a J.B. Bukauskas. And the other teams would come sniffing around, knowing that you probably had to cut a good arm lose next year.
Hey, I get that the Astros are a bit of a mess at the moment - like, in the last two weeks or so. It isn't pretty watching them scramble with their pitching. They can't seem to get a starter deep into the game, their key 'pen arms are either hurt, ineffective, or being rested for the postseason, and they don't have reliable lefty relief (until, perhaps, now). Tyler White just threw an inning for goodness sake, and Nori Aoki did the same earlier in the season. Francis Martes has just been lit up twice in a row after looking dominant for a while. But the Opening Day Astros roster - you know, the team that leads the AL by 10.5 games - had two players who were Free Agents at the end of 2017. One of them is 40 year-old Carlos Beltrán, the other just got traded to the Blue Jays.
This team isn't going going to be broken up at the end of this year. All their key pieces are returning next year. And the year after that. And, mostly, the year after that. This includes their pitching, who are a plenty solid group of starters. The Astros' situation is quite unlike the situation that the Cubs and the Yankees are in, who face losing their number 2 and 3 starters in the offseason. This simply wasn't the time to add a controllable starting pitcher, particularly one with a significant injury risk.
My next project will be to discuss options for playoff rotations, because I also think there are ways around that for the Astros. Until then, thanks for reading.
Tyler sums it up nicely:
The Astros' lead is now 10.5 games...— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) July 31, 2017
...on the team with the next best record in the American League
And so while there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth last night on Astros Twitter, some much-loved analysts had some nuanced, more balanced takes:
I've fully formulated my trade deadline takes— Aaron Ashcraft (@Aarcraft9) July 31, 2017
1. I'm disappointed
2. The team is still good
3. This team, healthy, is capable of winning WS
Most of the concern seemed to be principally around how three quality starting pitchers shifted teams in the weeks prior to the trade deadline. Yu Darvish went to the Dodgers, Sonny Gray to the Yankees and José Quintana to the Cubs. At times, the Astros have been linked to all of them - well, definitely the latter two, although Quintana was mostly in the offseason. It is possible the Astros and the Rangers would have hooked up on a Darvish trade had the price been right (remember Carlos Corporan for Akeem Bostick), but it was mostly speculation on the part of the pundits that had the Astros interested in the pending FA from South Grapevine.
The Astros made one move, and it was a pretty reasonable one in my opinion. They acquired Francisco Liriano and cash from the Jays, in exchange for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez. In doing so, they cleared the way for Derek Fisher - who has impressed over the course of 2017 - to play everyday (or something approaching that), and freed up a 40-man spot. Hernandez could be good, but he was not the Astros' top outfield prospect by any stretch (or even in the top 4). They also have 38 (by my count) on the 40-man roster, with a couple of guys that would be good candidates to be released / clear waivers (looking at you, Tony Sipp). So that offers them some flexibility to get some cheap innings eaters before the end of the season.
So... Liriano. I think it was no secret that the Astros were in on pretty much every relief lefty with some velocity on the trade market. Justin Wilson and Zach Britton were the main prizes at this deadline. Wilson went to the Cubs a few days ago (along with pending FA Alex Avila) for a couple of top prospects. Britton stayed put, with a number to tweets referring to the ever-increasing prices for him, or referencing Jeff Luhnow saying that they got 90% of the way to getting a deal done, but other teams just wanted too much. Plus, the Orioles had a very strange deadline - sort of acquiring two middling players but neither buying, nor selling, nor addressing their obvious problems with starting pitching. Extremely odd.
Fangraphs likes the Liriano acquisition... as long as he isn't being used as a starting pitcher. Travis Sawchik makes a great point in this article - Liriano is death on lefties, but is being murdered by righties. Also, his stuff may play up a little in a shorter role, so perhaps he can be trusted with an inning where there are two lefties projected to bat in the inning in a close game. Or perhaps he is just a LOOGY. Regardless, I think this was a nice pivot by the Front Office by eschewing costly lefty relievers and thinking outside the box. I like it, and there is no way the prospect cost was too great, or crippling for future Astros teams.
I guess I principally wanted to make some points about the Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs. First up, lets talk about the Dodgers, who had a quintessential Dodgers day. The Dodgers have an awesome amount of financial resources, a strong farm system, and a great team with what looks like a core of young and mid-career star players. What they have done over the last few years is spend big to amass significant depth, ignoring injury risk. Their rotation has been - in recent years, Clayton Kershaw followed by whomever is healthy and has a pulse. Could be Scott Kazmir, could be Rich Hill, could be Brandon McCarthy. They seem to have had a clear plan to throw big money at often-injured starters, and use their depth to mix and match depending on who is available.
Well, the Dodgers did it again, volume-wise, at this deadline They acquired not only Yu Darvish, but also bullpen lefties Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani. And if that isn't enough for you, they also signed FA lefty Tommy Layne. In return, they gave up Scott Van Slyke, Hendrik Clementina, Oneil Cruz, Angel German, Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis - or, according to Fangraphs' preseason prospects, a major-leaguer, their #6 prospect, and four "notable mentions". One potential big-time prospect dealt by LA for a top-flight starter for two months, a lefty who lost his closing job, and a struggling lefty swingman / starter. Nice work, but these deals seem to be mostly about volume and continuing the "throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks" philosophy.
The Yankees and Cubs are a different story. They acquired solid starting pitchers with a few years of control in exchange for decent prospect hauls. The White Sox did well, getting one solid blue-chipper and a second good prospect, whereas the A's took on ceiling, but injury-risk.
But the Cubs and Yankees have two things in common. Thing one: they are in dogfights for their divisions, and there is no guarantee that they will even make their respective postseasons. Thing two: check out their 2017 rotations and how long the starters near the top are signed for...
Cubs:
Jon Lester - signed through 2020
Jake Arrieta - FA this offseason
John Lackey - FA this offseason
Kyle Hendricks - controllable through 2021
Eddie Bulter - controllable through 2022
Also: Mike Montgomery - controllable through 2022, but no one wants him starting regularly
Yankees:
Luis Severino - controllable through 2023
Masahiro Tanaka - signed through 2020, but opt-out option this year
Michael Pineda - signed through 2018, but unlikely to pitch before then because of injury
Jordan Montgomery - controllable through 2023
CC Sabathia - FA this offseason
So both teams face losing some top-of-the-rotation starters to free agency (or injury) for next year. And the pending free agents on the above lists have struggled this season, too, so this is not a simple case of re-signing what you are losing. The Yankees also may lose Tanaka to an opt-out, and given that the starting pitching FA class is not a strong one, Tanaka may want to use it for another shot at free agency. Also, neither of these teams would want to approach the offseason with a clear need that could easily be exploited by a Scott Boras-like agent, as they are both teams known to pay well when needed. Both teams could have anticipated being fleeced this offseason if they had to sign two starting pitchers, and no one wants to be in that position, as you either spend too much, or sign someone for too long. Either way, it sucks.
At this juncture, lets (i) note that the Astros are NOT in a division dogfight in 2017 and are nearly certain to make the playoffs and (ii) look at the 2017 Astros rotation going forward:
Dallas Keuchel - controllable through 2019
Lance McCullers Jr - controllable through 2022
Collin McHugh - controllable through 2020
Charlie Morton - controllable through 2018
Mike Fiers - controllable through 2020
Plus....
Joe Musgrove - controllable through 2023
Brad Peacock - controllable through 2021
Francis Martes - controllable through 2023
So the Astros have 8 starting pitching options next year, all of whom are controllable for at least two years. This group of Astros starters have proven that they can prevent runs in line with the top rotations in baseball when healthy, despite being relatively unheralded and unsexy. Or: this is a quietly good set of arms backed up by a great offense. So I would argue that this was not the time to add a controllable starter to the Astros, because of a mix of their effectiveness and their contract status. Particularly if it was going to cost a Forrest Whitley, a Franklin Perez or a J.B. Bukauskas. And the other teams would come sniffing around, knowing that you probably had to cut a good arm lose next year.
Hey, I get that the Astros are a bit of a mess at the moment - like, in the last two weeks or so. It isn't pretty watching them scramble with their pitching. They can't seem to get a starter deep into the game, their key 'pen arms are either hurt, ineffective, or being rested for the postseason, and they don't have reliable lefty relief (until, perhaps, now). Tyler White just threw an inning for goodness sake, and Nori Aoki did the same earlier in the season. Francis Martes has just been lit up twice in a row after looking dominant for a while. But the Opening Day Astros roster - you know, the team that leads the AL by 10.5 games - had two players who were Free Agents at the end of 2017. One of them is 40 year-old Carlos Beltrán, the other just got traded to the Blue Jays.
This team isn't going going to be broken up at the end of this year. All their key pieces are returning next year. And the year after that. And, mostly, the year after that. This includes their pitching, who are a plenty solid group of starters. The Astros' situation is quite unlike the situation that the Cubs and the Yankees are in, who face losing their number 2 and 3 starters in the offseason. This simply wasn't the time to add a controllable starting pitcher, particularly one with a significant injury risk.
My next project will be to discuss options for playoff rotations, because I also think there are ways around that for the Astros. Until then, thanks for reading.
Friday, July 14, 2017
Friday Morning Hot Links
*Minnesota comes to Houston tonight (they actually probably got to Houston, like, yesterday or something). Jose Berrios is the Twins' starting pitcher. On May 29 Berrios allowed 5H/4ER, 5K:4BB in a 7-2 loss to the Astros, after the Twins spotted him a 2-0 lead.
*Tonight's Astros/Twins game will be streamed live on Facebook.
*Brian McTaggart says the Astros likely won't do what they did last Trade Deadline (nothing) and would like to add a couple of pitchers. He even has a trade scenario for you:
Houston receives: Sonny Gray and Ryan Madson
Oakland receives: Francis Martes, Derek Fisher, Daz Cameron, J.D. Davis, and Rogelio Armenteros.
Would you make that trade?
*He also says in an Inbox that Derek Fisher is more likely to be traded than Kyle Tucker.
*Jake Kaplan says yesterday's Quintana trade will increase the Gray-to-Houston speculation and has a notable quote from Luhnow:
Billy Beane and I have the same philosophy, which is we want to make win-win trades. And if there's a trade that helps your club and helps the other club even if it's a division rival, it's not worth putting it aside just because it's a division rival.
*Jon Heyman reports that the White Sox were insistent on both Kyle Tucker and Francis Martes for Quintana (and the White Sox wanted Gleybar Torres or Clint Frazier from the Yankees). The White Sox are stupid. Later in his (surprisingly useful) Notes Column, he says if the starting pitching market is too pricy, the Astros could go after Zach Britton. One scout compared Yordan Alvarez to David Ortiz. /fans self.
*You want Brad Hand, that cool lefty reliever from the Padres? They're asking for one of your top prospects.
It is 17 days until the Trade Deadline.
*Jeff Sullivan: The Astros lineup has been historically good.
*ESPN asked 27 baseball experts (BREAKING NEWS: ESPN STILL APPARENTLY EMPLOYS 27 PEOPLE TO TALK ABOUT BASEBALL) for their rest-of-season predictions and here's what they got:
18 of 27 think the Astros win the pennant
10 think the Astros win the World Series, 10 think the Dodgers win the World Series
6 think an Astro is MVP
The Astros will finish somewhere between 96 and 113 wins (note: if the Astros go 36-37 in the 2nd half, it will be disappointing)
*Yahoo's Big League Stew staff made their revised World Series predictions. Two picked the Astros.
*Twitter Bregs is back, baby!
*Astros County favorite Colby Rasmus will step away from baseball, according to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays do not expect him to return this season. Tony Rasmus says on Twitter that Colbs can't get his hip back to game shape.
*The Reds are modeling their rebuild after the Astros. Which is funny because Reds Executive Assistant to the CEO Walt Jocketty (who had been the GM of the Reds until the end of the 2016 season) left St. Louis after becoming "unhappy" that Jeff Luhnow was promoted to VP of amateur scouting and player development.
*Brett Phillips will open the second half with the Brewers.
*I know we're all supposed to hate every single thing about the West Terrell Rangers, past and present. And while that's fun to an extent, that's not really my thing. So you need to read Evan Grant's interview with Prince Fielder on life after baseball.
*Vice: When the lights went out at Shea Stadium.
*Vice: The $5 bump of cocaine that destroyed an Olympic dream
*Tonight's Astros/Twins game will be streamed live on Facebook.
*Brian McTaggart says the Astros likely won't do what they did last Trade Deadline (nothing) and would like to add a couple of pitchers. He even has a trade scenario for you:
Houston receives: Sonny Gray and Ryan Madson
Oakland receives: Francis Martes, Derek Fisher, Daz Cameron, J.D. Davis, and Rogelio Armenteros.
Would you make that trade?
*He also says in an Inbox that Derek Fisher is more likely to be traded than Kyle Tucker.
*Jake Kaplan says yesterday's Quintana trade will increase the Gray-to-Houston speculation and has a notable quote from Luhnow:
Billy Beane and I have the same philosophy, which is we want to make win-win trades. And if there's a trade that helps your club and helps the other club even if it's a division rival, it's not worth putting it aside just because it's a division rival.
*Jon Heyman reports that the White Sox were insistent on both Kyle Tucker and Francis Martes for Quintana (and the White Sox wanted Gleybar Torres or Clint Frazier from the Yankees). The White Sox are stupid. Later in his (surprisingly useful) Notes Column, he says if the starting pitching market is too pricy, the Astros could go after Zach Britton. One scout compared Yordan Alvarez to David Ortiz. /fans self.
*You want Brad Hand, that cool lefty reliever from the Padres? They're asking for one of your top prospects.
It is 17 days until the Trade Deadline.
*Jeff Sullivan: The Astros lineup has been historically good.
*ESPN asked 27 baseball experts (BREAKING NEWS: ESPN STILL APPARENTLY EMPLOYS 27 PEOPLE TO TALK ABOUT BASEBALL) for their rest-of-season predictions and here's what they got:
18 of 27 think the Astros win the pennant
10 think the Astros win the World Series, 10 think the Dodgers win the World Series
6 think an Astro is MVP
The Astros will finish somewhere between 96 and 113 wins (note: if the Astros go 36-37 in the 2nd half, it will be disappointing)
*Yahoo's Big League Stew staff made their revised World Series predictions. Two picked the Astros.
*Twitter Bregs is back, baby!
*Astros County favorite Colby Rasmus will step away from baseball, according to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays do not expect him to return this season. Tony Rasmus says on Twitter that Colbs can't get his hip back to game shape.
*The Reds are modeling their rebuild after the Astros. Which is funny because Reds Executive Assistant to the CEO Walt Jocketty (who had been the GM of the Reds until the end of the 2016 season) left St. Louis after becoming "unhappy" that Jeff Luhnow was promoted to VP of amateur scouting and player development.
*Brett Phillips will open the second half with the Brewers.
*I know we're all supposed to hate every single thing about the West Terrell Rangers, past and present. And while that's fun to an extent, that's not really my thing. So you need to read Evan Grant's interview with Prince Fielder on life after baseball.
*Vice: When the lights went out at Shea Stadium.
*Vice: The $5 bump of cocaine that destroyed an Olympic dream
Thursday, July 13, 2017
The Case For (and against) Jose Quintana
Look I know LHP Jose Quintana was traded to the Cubs this morning for 1B/DH Eloy Jimenez, RHP Dylan Cease, 1B Matt Rose, and IF Bryant Flete.
Coming into this season, Jimenez was a consensus Top-15 prospect (Both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him #14, while BP had Jimenez at #10) so he's the main guy in this deal. For High-A Myrtle Beach this season, Jimenez hit .271/.351/.490 in 42 games. In Baseball America's midseason rankings Jimenez came in at #5.
Dylan Cease was in Baseball America's (#97) and MLB.com's (#77) Top 100 list going into the season. For Low-A South Bend Cease had thrown 51.2IP with a 2.79 ERA/1.26 WHIP with 74K:26BB. Cease was #83 in BA's midseason rankings.
Matt Rose was not in anyone's Top 100 list and had .761 OPS for Myrtle Beach at the time he was traded this morning. Bryant Flete is in his Age 24 season with a .780 OPS for Myrtle Beach. So really we're looking at one of the best prospects in the game, another Top 100 guy, and two other Maybes.
A companion trade that involves the Astros might look along the lines of Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jason Martin, and Dexture McCall.
Would you have made that trade for Jose Quintana? Jon Heyman reported earlier this week that the Astros didn't even see Quintana as an ace anymore, and really, that's what it comes down to. It's not the package given up, it's that the Cubs are going to lose Arrietta and Lackey this offseason, and they get a cost-controlled pitcher for the next 3.5 seasons in return. So let's look at that:
Jose Quintana is actually bad
If you think Quintana is bad, then of course you don't make a deal like this. Quintana will be 29 next January. He's under a very team-friendly contract, making $6m this year, $8.8m next year, with two $10.5m team options to get through the 2020 season. Still, after four consecutive 200+ IP seasons, maybe he's starting to wear down. Right now his ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all above 4.00. Quintana is striking out batters at a career rate (9.4 K/9) but his BB/9 has risen from 1.92 in 2015 to 2.16 in 2016, to 3.45 in 2017. He allowed 22 home runs in 208IP last season and in 104.1IP in 2017 has already allowed 14. So, sure, he's cheap, but is he also declining? And do you give up one of the best prospects in the game, a really good one, as well, and two other blokes to get that done?
Jose Quintana is actually good
Or maybe you think that Quintana's numbers reflect his mood souring on his team after they traded away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. This is also a pitcher that gets virtually no run support. He's a career 50-54 pitcher but has 68 No Decisions in which he's carrying a 3.36 ERA. In 169 starts for Chicago, he's gotten 6+ runs of support in just 43 of them.
Remember Luhnow talking about seeking out trades that give them favorable matchups in October? Consider that Quintana in his career has held the Indians to a .635 OPS, and the Red Sox to a .693 OPS. It's only two starts, but the Dodgers haven't scored an earned run off of him. Quintana could have formed a 1-2 lefty punch with Keuchel (maybe broken up by McCullers as SP2, but you get what I mean).
We don't know if the White Sox ever budged from their demands of Tucker, Martes, and more. Do I think the Astros would have been interested in adding Quintana? Yes, but at the right price. Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Astros were involved, but didn't come close to the package the Cubs offered. The Astros have been very consistent in not overpaying in trades. Maybe after months of getting rebuffed for Tucker and Martes, the White Sox went in a different direction. Quintana's out of the AL now, so that's nice, but the White Sox are going to be a force here pretty soon. Also, Quintana said this week he preferred to stay in Chicago, so good for him.
Now what will this do to the trade market? Early returns are mixed on what the Cubs gave up, because there's uncertainty as to what the Cubs are actually getting. But consider this deal a standard template for Sonny Gray with a higher price tag for Julio Teheran, Jacob deGrom, Chris Archer, etc.
Coming into this season, Jimenez was a consensus Top-15 prospect (Both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him #14, while BP had Jimenez at #10) so he's the main guy in this deal. For High-A Myrtle Beach this season, Jimenez hit .271/.351/.490 in 42 games. In Baseball America's midseason rankings Jimenez came in at #5.
Dylan Cease was in Baseball America's (#97) and MLB.com's (#77) Top 100 list going into the season. For Low-A South Bend Cease had thrown 51.2IP with a 2.79 ERA/1.26 WHIP with 74K:26BB. Cease was #83 in BA's midseason rankings.
Matt Rose was not in anyone's Top 100 list and had .761 OPS for Myrtle Beach at the time he was traded this morning. Bryant Flete is in his Age 24 season with a .780 OPS for Myrtle Beach. So really we're looking at one of the best prospects in the game, another Top 100 guy, and two other Maybes.
A companion trade that involves the Astros might look along the lines of Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jason Martin, and Dexture McCall.
Would you have made that trade for Jose Quintana? Jon Heyman reported earlier this week that the Astros didn't even see Quintana as an ace anymore, and really, that's what it comes down to. It's not the package given up, it's that the Cubs are going to lose Arrietta and Lackey this offseason, and they get a cost-controlled pitcher for the next 3.5 seasons in return. So let's look at that:
Jose Quintana is actually bad
If you think Quintana is bad, then of course you don't make a deal like this. Quintana will be 29 next January. He's under a very team-friendly contract, making $6m this year, $8.8m next year, with two $10.5m team options to get through the 2020 season. Still, after four consecutive 200+ IP seasons, maybe he's starting to wear down. Right now his ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all above 4.00. Quintana is striking out batters at a career rate (9.4 K/9) but his BB/9 has risen from 1.92 in 2015 to 2.16 in 2016, to 3.45 in 2017. He allowed 22 home runs in 208IP last season and in 104.1IP in 2017 has already allowed 14. So, sure, he's cheap, but is he also declining? And do you give up one of the best prospects in the game, a really good one, as well, and two other blokes to get that done?
Jose Quintana is actually good
Or maybe you think that Quintana's numbers reflect his mood souring on his team after they traded away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. This is also a pitcher that gets virtually no run support. He's a career 50-54 pitcher but has 68 No Decisions in which he's carrying a 3.36 ERA. In 169 starts for Chicago, he's gotten 6+ runs of support in just 43 of them.
Remember Luhnow talking about seeking out trades that give them favorable matchups in October? Consider that Quintana in his career has held the Indians to a .635 OPS, and the Red Sox to a .693 OPS. It's only two starts, but the Dodgers haven't scored an earned run off of him. Quintana could have formed a 1-2 lefty punch with Keuchel (maybe broken up by McCullers as SP2, but you get what I mean).
We don't know if the White Sox ever budged from their demands of Tucker, Martes, and more. Do I think the Astros would have been interested in adding Quintana? Yes, but at the right price. Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Astros were involved, but didn't come close to the package the Cubs offered. The Astros have been very consistent in not overpaying in trades. Maybe after months of getting rebuffed for Tucker and Martes, the White Sox went in a different direction. Quintana's out of the AL now, so that's nice, but the White Sox are going to be a force here pretty soon. Also, Quintana said this week he preferred to stay in Chicago, so good for him.
Now what will this do to the trade market? Early returns are mixed on what the Cubs gave up, because there's uncertainty as to what the Cubs are actually getting. But consider this deal a standard template for Sonny Gray with a higher price tag for Julio Teheran, Jacob deGrom, Chris Archer, etc.
Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Tuesday Morning Hot Links
My life changed five years ago today. My wife and I have had our fair share (and some other people's fair shares) of pregnancy complications. Six miscarriages - three of which were ectopic, two of those almost killed her - led, in part, to the creation of Astros County. I needed a project where I could channel some attention that didn't have anything to do with how awful life was at times. But on July 10, 2012 I got to drive on the shoulder of Interstate 40 through the middle of Nashville to get to the hospital because my wife's water had broken.
*2013 still weighs on the minds of Jose Altuve and Dallas Keuchel:
It's a motivating factor. Just the other day I was talking with Dallas about that. For all the players on the team, what we're going through now is special, but for me and him there's a little something extra because we were on that team that lost more than 100 games.
*Washington Post: The Astros are a playoff team, but not yet a World Series contender
*Here's a cool story on Astros scout Hank Allen.
*Chris Carter is looking for a job.
*FanGraphs: The recent history of free-agent pricing.
*The Art and Science of Throwing Batting Practice
As a noted idiot I thought that, when your water broke, it meant that a baby would coming falling out within minutes, so I wasn't prepared for the 21-hour wait until we got to meet our daughter. That night, as we waited for, um, conditions to get right, I tried to keep friends and family updated. My wife was laying there, focusing on her breathing. I brought a book. About 7:00 that evening, five hours after her water broke, I looked over at my wife and told her she was beautiful. Starting in a matter of minutes was the 2012 All-Star Game, and Jose Altuve would be playing. I asked her, "Hey, here's a tv, can I watch the All-Star Game?" The look that she gave me indicated, "No, it is not acceptable for you to watch a baseball game while I'm in labor." Her only audible response was "And I don't care that Altuve is playing." I chalked that up to the labor pains and don't hold that betrayal against her. Altuve went 0x1.
I don't stay up late. If I see 2am, I've already been asleep and - for whatever reason - have awakened. So as the clock crept closer to midnight, I started getting sleepy. I knew that, if I couldn't watch the All-Star Game, I sure as hell couldn't take a nap, so I drank coffee, took walks around the floor of the hospital, checked Twitter, answered texts. 2am turned into 3am, which turned into 4am. At that point I was delirious. I had been awake since 4:30am the previous day and I don't do well in that situation. So as I went to get my 85th cup of coffee and stretch my legs.
A personal character flaw is how I try to use humor as a defense mechanism. I also have a very hard time understanding when it's okay to make a joke, and when I should just let the moment pass. Factor that character flaw into being awake for 24 hours and I get dumb. So when I walked into our room (right next to the nurse's station) at 4:30am and yelled "I SEE A LADY TONIGHT WHO SHOULD BE HAVING MY BABY...BABY." Well, you can imagine - or maybe you can't - the fury that erupted from my wife who, eight hours later would deliver our only child, a perfect little girl, who turns five years old today.
---
*Richard Justice writes of the paths each of the Astros All-Stars took.
*2013 still weighs on the minds of Jose Altuve and Dallas Keuchel:
It's a motivating factor. Just the other day I was talking with Dallas about that. For all the players on the team, what we're going through now is special, but for me and him there's a little something extra because we were on that team that lost more than 100 games.
*Washington Post: The Astros are a playoff team, but not yet a World Series contender
*Collin McHugh made another rehab start for Corpus last night, throwing 4.1IP, 4H/3R (0ER), 4K:2BB. He threw 47 of his 74 pitches for strikes in a 6-5 Corpus win. Garrett Stubbs was 4x5 with 3RBI
*Franklin Perez was promoted from Buies Creek to Corpus after last night's game in which he threw 4IP, 3H/0ER, 5K:2BB. In 54.1IP for BCA, he allowed 38H/18ER, 53K:16BB. Last week Baseball America named Perez as their #32 prospect.
*Quad Cities are working faster and smarter in the heat.
*The White Sox still want Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker for Jose Quintana. Heyman:
The price for Quintana is high enough that the Astros are looking elsewhere, having known to have called on Teheran and even Mets star Jacob deGrom...And word is, the Astros don't actually see Quintana as an ace at this point.
*Quad Cities are working faster and smarter in the heat.
*The White Sox still want Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker for Jose Quintana. Heyman:
The price for Quintana is high enough that the Astros are looking elsewhere, having known to have called on Teheran and even Mets star Jacob deGrom...And word is, the Astros don't actually see Quintana as an ace at this point.
*Here's a cool story on Astros scout Hank Allen.
*Chris Carter is looking for a job.
*FanGraphs: The recent history of free-agent pricing.
*The Art and Science of Throwing Batting Practice
*Come get your boy:
Possibly the worst call I have ever seen. pic.twitter.com/9HaQJt28UV— Baseball is Fun (@flippingbats) July 10, 2017
Monday, July 10, 2017
Monday Morning Hot Links
*They're dead. By God they're all dead. The Astros killed them. I am not emotionally prepared for this. The Astros are 60-29, 16.5 games ahead of the Angels and Rangers. This, if you remember Baseball-Reference replying to Stephen King, is the 2nd largest division lead at the All-Star Break in baseball history. The 2001 Mariners (shudder) had a 19-game lead at the Break. The now-3rd-largest division lead in baseball history was 14.5 games, set by Pittsburgh in 1902. The 1902 Pirates went 103-36 but didn't win the World Series because the World Series wasn't played until the following season. George Springer vs. Ginger Beaumont: WHO YA GOT.
*The 16.5-game lead matches the largest division lead in franchise history. The 2017 Astros have lost one road series all year (at Cleveland, April 25-27).
*Jake Kaplan did the good work (so I didn't have to). Here are the previous franchise best winning percentages at the All-Star Break:
1) 2017: .674 (60-29)
2) 1998: .609 (53-34)
3) 1999: .580 (51-37)
4) 1980: .577 (45-33)
*The Astros have joined the 2017 Dodgers, 2003 Braves, 2001 Mariners, and 1998 Yankees as the only teams in MLB history to have 60 wins at the All-Star Break. Hinch, on 60 wins:
It's special. It's a special distinction because it's rarely done...We've gotten off to such a great start. We've got a great vibe, fun culture. Winning obviously helps that.
*On this 6-game road trip (4-2), the Astros outscored the 1992 World Series participants 63-25. The Astros have a run differential of +162. That 1998 team had a +143 run differential at the Break. Previous seasons run differentials at the All-Star Break:
2016: +30
2015: +50
2014: -88
2013: -143
2012: -72
2011: -106
*The 19 runs scored by the Astros are the most in a game since October 2, 2015 when the Astros dropped 21 on Arizona, but this is the 6th game this season in which the Astros have 17+ hits. That's ridiculous.
*Hinch:
That was incredible. We never stopped.
*Justin Smoak:
That team over there is really good and to get two wins against them is good.
*Via Joe Sheehan: The Astros' four games of 16+ runs this season are the most by any team since 1996. And, at the All-Star Break, no team has had six such games since 1936.
*Check the lede from the Toronto Sun's Steve Buffery:
Sunday's Blue Jays game at the Rogers Centre was so bad for the home side, they had to replace the official scorer with a professor of mathematics from the University of Toronto.
*The Astros have never won a game by as large a margin as they did yesterday. It's the 5th time the 2017 Astros have won a game by 10+ runs. The 2015 Astros won seven games by 10+ runs. From 2008 - 2014 the Astros won a total of four games by 10+ runs.
*Correa, who had a career-high 5RBI thanks to two home runs:
I feel like we have a really good team. From 1 through 9, we can do damage, so today we showed what we're capable of.
*Carlos Correa hit his 19th and 20th home runs yesterday. He had 20 home runs in all of 2016.
*Jose Altuve got his 5th consecutive 3-hit game yesterday, giving him a league-leading .347 batting average. He has raised his OPS 51 points in the last five games. He's the 9th player since 1913 with 5+ 3-hit games, and the first to do it since George Brett in 1976.
*Via Ryan Spaeder: The last time a team had two middle infielders with a .300/.400/.500 slash line was the 1873 Boston Red Stockings.
*Brad Peacock had another Walk Issue. Though he made it through six scoreless, he allowed five walks, man. Peacock, on his command:
Unreal. I can't explain it. Sometimes it just happens. I lost it.
*While we all would prefer the Astros just go ahead and play the Twins tomorrow night, Hinch is looking forward to the break:
It's nice to say we should keep this going, but we need as many people to rest up here in the next four days.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield says the Astros and Dodgers are on a World Series collision course, but has a chilling stat: In the Wild Card Era, 22 teams have won 100 games. Of those 22 teams, seven went to the World Series, and only three won it. Only 14 of the 44 teams to lead the league in wins went to the World Series.
*Playoff Odds/Season Projection check:
FanGraphs: (103-59) 99.9% to win division, 18.3% to win World Series
Baseball Prospectus: (102-60) 100% to win division, 18.9% to win World Series
FiveThirtyEight: (105-57) >99% to win division, 23% to win World Series
*Dallas Keuchel threw a bullpen session yesterday. Hinch:
I'm cautiously optimistic, as opposed to, just, dreaming. We need these guys to be on the field. Until they're pitching, I don't factor anything in.
Click the link for notes on who goes to the bullpen and Hinch's thoughts on the mindset of rotation vs. bullpen. As Keuchel and McHugh get ready to come back, Hinch said Frankie Tuesday could remain in the bullpen or go back to starting for Fresno.
*Charlie Morton will pitch Friday, Joe Musgrove on Saturday, and Mike Fiers on Sunday against the Twins.
*FanRag's Tommy Stokke: Marwin is an All-Star for the Astros, at least.
*In the Futures Game (which the USA won, giving them home field advantage in the Futures World Series), Derek Fisher hit a two-run double, Kyle Tucker was 1x3 with an RBI double, and Yordan Alvarez was 1x1 with a walk and an RBI. Fisher:
This is something you don't really realize how big it is until you're here. This is the first time I've played with USA across my chest. Being able to do that was a proud thing for me.
Tucker, on playing with trade rumors swirling:
I'll see it every now and then. I don't pay too much attention to it, because it's out of my hands. All I can do is go out and play. I don't have any say whether I get traded or who I'm going to.
*Ramon Laureano went 5x5 with two doubles and a triple in Corpus' win yesterday. He's the 5th player in Corpus history to get a 5-hit game. He's hitting .500/.529/1.000 in July.
*Forrest Whitley threw 5IP, 5H/1ER, 5K:0BB in a Buies Creek win yesterday.
*Baseball officials told Joel Sherman that there are concerns about Sonny Gray's long-term health.
*Jose Quintana said he'd prefer to stay in Chicago.
*Mariners bullpen coach and Former Astros Great Mike Hampton has resigned, in order to spend more time with his family.
*Mike Trout will return to the Angels on Friday, and baseball will be better for it.
*The 16.5-game lead matches the largest division lead in franchise history. The 2017 Astros have lost one road series all year (at Cleveland, April 25-27).
*Jake Kaplan did the good work (so I didn't have to). Here are the previous franchise best winning percentages at the All-Star Break:
1) 2017: .674 (60-29)
2) 1998: .609 (53-34)
3) 1999: .580 (51-37)
4) 1980: .577 (45-33)
*The Astros have joined the 2017 Dodgers, 2003 Braves, 2001 Mariners, and 1998 Yankees as the only teams in MLB history to have 60 wins at the All-Star Break. Hinch, on 60 wins:
It's special. It's a special distinction because it's rarely done...We've gotten off to such a great start. We've got a great vibe, fun culture. Winning obviously helps that.
*On this 6-game road trip (4-2), the Astros outscored the 1992 World Series participants 63-25. The Astros have a run differential of +162. That 1998 team had a +143 run differential at the Break. Previous seasons run differentials at the All-Star Break:
2016: +30
2015: +50
2014: -88
2013: -143
2012: -72
2011: -106
*The 19 runs scored by the Astros are the most in a game since October 2, 2015 when the Astros dropped 21 on Arizona, but this is the 6th game this season in which the Astros have 17+ hits. That's ridiculous.
*Hinch:
That was incredible. We never stopped.
*Justin Smoak:
That team over there is really good and to get two wins against them is good.
*Via Joe Sheehan: The Astros' four games of 16+ runs this season are the most by any team since 1996. And, at the All-Star Break, no team has had six such games since 1936.
well sometimes when you visit other countries you get the runs https://t.co/bFHvjxLNzn— Jon Bois (@jon_bois) July 9, 2017
*Check the lede from the Toronto Sun's Steve Buffery:
Sunday's Blue Jays game at the Rogers Centre was so bad for the home side, they had to replace the official scorer with a professor of mathematics from the University of Toronto.
*The Astros have never won a game by as large a margin as they did yesterday. It's the 5th time the 2017 Astros have won a game by 10+ runs. The 2015 Astros won seven games by 10+ runs. From 2008 - 2014 the Astros won a total of four games by 10+ runs.
*Correa, who had a career-high 5RBI thanks to two home runs:
I feel like we have a really good team. From 1 through 9, we can do damage, so today we showed what we're capable of.
*Carlos Correa hit his 19th and 20th home runs yesterday. He had 20 home runs in all of 2016.
*Jose Altuve got his 5th consecutive 3-hit game yesterday, giving him a league-leading .347 batting average. He has raised his OPS 51 points in the last five games. He's the 9th player since 1913 with 5+ 3-hit games, and the first to do it since George Brett in 1976.
*Via Ryan Spaeder: The last time a team had two middle infielders with a .300/.400/.500 slash line was the 1873 Boston Red Stockings.
*Brad Peacock had another Walk Issue. Though he made it through six scoreless, he allowed five walks, man. Peacock, on his command:
Unreal. I can't explain it. Sometimes it just happens. I lost it.
*While we all would prefer the Astros just go ahead and play the Twins tomorrow night, Hinch is looking forward to the break:
It's nice to say we should keep this going, but we need as many people to rest up here in the next four days.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield says the Astros and Dodgers are on a World Series collision course, but has a chilling stat: In the Wild Card Era, 22 teams have won 100 games. Of those 22 teams, seven went to the World Series, and only three won it. Only 14 of the 44 teams to lead the league in wins went to the World Series.
*Playoff Odds/Season Projection check:
FanGraphs: (103-59) 99.9% to win division, 18.3% to win World Series
Baseball Prospectus: (102-60) 100% to win division, 18.9% to win World Series
FiveThirtyEight: (105-57) >99% to win division, 23% to win World Series
*Dallas Keuchel threw a bullpen session yesterday. Hinch:
I'm cautiously optimistic, as opposed to, just, dreaming. We need these guys to be on the field. Until they're pitching, I don't factor anything in.
Click the link for notes on who goes to the bullpen and Hinch's thoughts on the mindset of rotation vs. bullpen. As Keuchel and McHugh get ready to come back, Hinch said Frankie Tuesday could remain in the bullpen or go back to starting for Fresno.
*Charlie Morton will pitch Friday, Joe Musgrove on Saturday, and Mike Fiers on Sunday against the Twins.
*FanRag's Tommy Stokke: Marwin is an All-Star for the Astros, at least.
*In the Futures Game (which the USA won, giving them home field advantage in the Futures World Series), Derek Fisher hit a two-run double, Kyle Tucker was 1x3 with an RBI double, and Yordan Alvarez was 1x1 with a walk and an RBI. Fisher:
This is something you don't really realize how big it is until you're here. This is the first time I've played with USA across my chest. Being able to do that was a proud thing for me.
Tucker, on playing with trade rumors swirling:
I'll see it every now and then. I don't pay too much attention to it, because it's out of my hands. All I can do is go out and play. I don't have any say whether I get traded or who I'm going to.
*Ramon Laureano went 5x5 with two doubles and a triple in Corpus' win yesterday. He's the 5th player in Corpus history to get a 5-hit game. He's hitting .500/.529/1.000 in July.
*Forrest Whitley threw 5IP, 5H/1ER, 5K:0BB in a Buies Creek win yesterday.
*Baseball officials told Joel Sherman that there are concerns about Sonny Gray's long-term health.
*Jose Quintana said he'd prefer to stay in Chicago.
*Mariners bullpen coach and Former Astros Great Mike Hampton has resigned, in order to spend more time with his family.
*Mike Trout will return to the Angels on Friday, and baseball will be better for it.
Friday, July 7, 2017
Friday Morning Hot Links
*Stop me if you've heard this one before: a starting pitcher (in this case it's Lance McCullers) couldn't make it out of the 5th and the Blue Jays got that one inning that the Astros usually seem to get. Astros lose 7-4. The Astros are 58-28 and have a 15.5-game lead on the division with 76 games to play.
*McCullers' line: 4.1IP, 9H/6R (5ER), 3K:2BB. He threw 61 of his 100 pitches for strikes and only 13 of the 24 batters he faced got a first pitch strike. Hinch:
We didn't have a great night in a lot of aspects. They swung the bat very well, they put up a big inning against us and never really let us out of it.
That 5th inning for McCullers went as such: Single, Single, Passed Ball, Single, Strikeout, Double, Single. After getting 18 outs in nine of his first 13 starts, McCullers hasn't made it out of the 6th in the three starts since coming off the DL (though, to be fair, his first start back was 5IP, 76-pitch outing). McCullers:
I just didn't execute that inning. I wanted to throw a purpose pitch and left it over the plate and up where [Bautista] got a hit. The inning kind of snowballed from there.
*
*Michael Feliz allowed a hit and a walk and committed a throwing error to push the game to 6-2 at the time. Feliz has inherited runners in 14 of his appearances and allowed a run in eight of them. Since June 11 Michael Feliz has come into a game with runners on base four times, inheriting seven baserunners. All seven have scored.
*Luke Gregerson, last nine appearances since taking the June 13 loss against Upper Duncanville: 8IP, 4H/0ER, 11K:2BB.
*Jose Altuve was 3x5 and Alex Bregman was 3x3 with a walk. Bregman's last three games: 7x11, 1K:3BB. Carlos Beltran hit his first home run since June 20, going 43 plate appearances between home runs.
*Carlos Correa singled to give him a 14-game hitting streak, but confusion with Altuve on covering second led to Feliz's throwing error. And then Correa got salty with how Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna handled the final out (leisurely strolling to first before lobbing a throw). Correa:
I don't know what's so special about that, throwing me a 3-2 cutter; showing me up. I go home, relax. Next time I face him, he better not give up a homer.
Prediction: if Correa hits a homer off Osuna this series, he will ride his bat like a stick horse around the bases.
*The Astros lost for the 10th time in 41 road games. The 2016 Astros lost ten of their first twelve road games.
*Collin McHugh will make another rehab start for Corpus on Monday; Dallas Keuchel will throw off a mound this weekend.
*Charlie Morton comes off the DL to face Aaron Sanchez tonight, who is also coming off the DL. Dayan Diaz will head on back to Fresno to make room.
*Joe Musgrove felt like his mechanics were more in sync on Wednesday night. Musgrove:
I'd like the break to not be there right now to continue to work and show them that wasn't a fluke outing. I really feel like I found my piece.
*Houston officially signed 1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas to a $3.6m bonus yesterday, slightly over slot. They also signed 10th Round pick Kyle Serrano. While 9th Round pick Mike Papierski hasn't *officially* signed (reports are he has a deal), that makes every player in the first ten rounds in the fold. Check the Draft page for financials. The signing deadline is today at 4pm Central. Any player selected in Rounds 11-40 who signs for more than $125,000 has the overage counted against the bonus pool (if you, a good little baseball player, are drafted in the 35th Round and sign for $150,000, then $25,000 is counted against the bonus pool.)
*The Astros are pretty excited about Yordan Alvarez's Futures Game appearance. Mike Elias:
He's going to have a chance to show everybody firsthand the type of talent the Astros know he is.
After hitting .360/.468/.658 for Quad Cities, Alvarez got promoted to High-A Buies Creek. In 12 games with BCA, the 20-year old Cuban is hitting .268/.365/.415 with 9K:8BB. Other teams are going to want him.
*Jon Heyman: Chris Devenski and Marwin should have made the All-Star Team
*Also Jon Heyman: Trade Martes and Kyle Tucker to Chicago for Jose Quintana and Tommy Kahnle. In his Notes Column, Heyman says that the Astros are most likely to land Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, though they inquired on Atlanta's Julio Teheran.
*Greg Rajan took a fun look at Houston's uniform tradition.
*When Jaime Garcia struck out Alex Bregman on Wednesday, it triggered this poor girl. She deleted her account because she's sorta racist.
*Corpus' J.D. Davis and Buies Creek's Myles Straw were named June Players of the Month by MiLB. Davis hit .343/.404/.627 with seven home runs and is straight up blocked by Colin Moran who is straight up blocked by Alex Bregman; Straw - the Astros' 2015 12th Round pick - hit .375/.479/.479 with 11K:20BB and went 12x15 in stolen bases in June.
*Former UH pitcher Nick Hernandez was promoted to Corpus. Hernandez - who made the Carolina League All-Star Team - threw 34IP for Buies Creek, allowing 18H/6ER, with 48K:11BB.
*Tri-City (6-10) beat the dog piss out of Brooklyn last night, 13-0. JJ Matijevic was 2x4 with his first home run and 3RBI; Reid Russell hit his 1st and 2nd homers of the season; Kyle Davis hit another home run; Jake Adams hit his 3rd home run - four players had 3RBI. Pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Colin McKee combined for 3H/0ER, 13K:4BB.
*Sung Min Kim wrote about Jose Lima's unlikely impact on the Korean Baseball Organization.
*The Nationals called a three-hour rain delay for a storm that brought drizzle for 30 minutes.
*An oral history of NBA Jam.
*McCullers' line: 4.1IP, 9H/6R (5ER), 3K:2BB. He threw 61 of his 100 pitches for strikes and only 13 of the 24 batters he faced got a first pitch strike. Hinch:
We didn't have a great night in a lot of aspects. They swung the bat very well, they put up a big inning against us and never really let us out of it.
That 5th inning for McCullers went as such: Single, Single, Passed Ball, Single, Strikeout, Double, Single. After getting 18 outs in nine of his first 13 starts, McCullers hasn't made it out of the 6th in the three starts since coming off the DL (though, to be fair, his first start back was 5IP, 76-pitch outing). McCullers:
I just didn't execute that inning. I wanted to throw a purpose pitch and left it over the plate and up where [Bautista] got a hit. The inning kind of snowballed from there.
*
Lance McCullers just threw a unknown pitch type at 45 mph, per Statcast.— Christian Boutwell (@_CBoutwell) July 6, 2017
*Michael Feliz allowed a hit and a walk and committed a throwing error to push the game to 6-2 at the time. Feliz has inherited runners in 14 of his appearances and allowed a run in eight of them. Since June 11 Michael Feliz has come into a game with runners on base four times, inheriting seven baserunners. All seven have scored.
*Luke Gregerson, last nine appearances since taking the June 13 loss against Upper Duncanville: 8IP, 4H/0ER, 11K:2BB.
*Jose Altuve was 3x5 and Alex Bregman was 3x3 with a walk. Bregman's last three games: 7x11, 1K:3BB. Carlos Beltran hit his first home run since June 20, going 43 plate appearances between home runs.
*Carlos Correa singled to give him a 14-game hitting streak, but confusion with Altuve on covering second led to Feliz's throwing error. And then Correa got salty with how Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna handled the final out (leisurely strolling to first before lobbing a throw). Correa:
I don't know what's so special about that, throwing me a 3-2 cutter; showing me up. I go home, relax. Next time I face him, he better not give up a homer.
Prediction: if Correa hits a homer off Osuna this series, he will ride his bat like a stick horse around the bases.
*The Astros lost for the 10th time in 41 road games. The 2016 Astros lost ten of their first twelve road games.
*Collin McHugh will make another rehab start for Corpus on Monday; Dallas Keuchel will throw off a mound this weekend.
*Charlie Morton comes off the DL to face Aaron Sanchez tonight, who is also coming off the DL. Dayan Diaz will head on back to Fresno to make room.
*Joe Musgrove felt like his mechanics were more in sync on Wednesday night. Musgrove:
I'd like the break to not be there right now to continue to work and show them that wasn't a fluke outing. I really feel like I found my piece.
*Houston officially signed 1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas to a $3.6m bonus yesterday, slightly over slot. They also signed 10th Round pick Kyle Serrano. While 9th Round pick Mike Papierski hasn't *officially* signed (reports are he has a deal), that makes every player in the first ten rounds in the fold. Check the Draft page for financials. The signing deadline is today at 4pm Central. Any player selected in Rounds 11-40 who signs for more than $125,000 has the overage counted against the bonus pool (if you, a good little baseball player, are drafted in the 35th Round and sign for $150,000, then $25,000 is counted against the bonus pool.)
*The Astros are pretty excited about Yordan Alvarez's Futures Game appearance. Mike Elias:
He's going to have a chance to show everybody firsthand the type of talent the Astros know he is.
After hitting .360/.468/.658 for Quad Cities, Alvarez got promoted to High-A Buies Creek. In 12 games with BCA, the 20-year old Cuban is hitting .268/.365/.415 with 9K:8BB. Other teams are going to want him.
*Jon Heyman: Chris Devenski and Marwin should have made the All-Star Team
*Also Jon Heyman: Trade Martes and Kyle Tucker to Chicago for Jose Quintana and Tommy Kahnle. In his Notes Column, Heyman says that the Astros are most likely to land Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, though they inquired on Atlanta's Julio Teheran.
*Greg Rajan took a fun look at Houston's uniform tradition.
*When Jaime Garcia struck out Alex Bregman on Wednesday, it triggered this poor girl. She deleted her account because she's sorta racist.
*Corpus' J.D. Davis and Buies Creek's Myles Straw were named June Players of the Month by MiLB. Davis hit .343/.404/.627 with seven home runs and is straight up blocked by Colin Moran who is straight up blocked by Alex Bregman; Straw - the Astros' 2015 12th Round pick - hit .375/.479/.479 with 11K:20BB and went 12x15 in stolen bases in June.
*Former UH pitcher Nick Hernandez was promoted to Corpus. Hernandez - who made the Carolina League All-Star Team - threw 34IP for Buies Creek, allowing 18H/6ER, with 48K:11BB.
*Tri-City (6-10) beat the dog piss out of Brooklyn last night, 13-0. JJ Matijevic was 2x4 with his first home run and 3RBI; Reid Russell hit his 1st and 2nd homers of the season; Kyle Davis hit another home run; Jake Adams hit his 3rd home run - four players had 3RBI. Pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Colin McKee combined for 3H/0ER, 13K:4BB.
*Sung Min Kim wrote about Jose Lima's unlikely impact on the Korean Baseball Organization.
*The Nationals called a three-hour rain delay for a storm that brought drizzle for 30 minutes.
*An oral history of NBA Jam.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Wednesday Morning Hot Links
*Another solid Mike Fiers start was blown by another poor James Hoyt outing, who gave up a grand slam and cleared the way for a 6-4 Oakland win. Springer started a comeback effort with a three-run home run in the 9th inning, but the Astros couldn't crawl back in this one.
*Fiers:
I felt pretty good. They battled me again and put me in a lot of tough situations, a lot of jams, and cashed in in the sixth.
Hoyt:
I let the team down. They put me out there in a big time in the game and I just didn't do my job.
The 6th inning was the door-buster. Fiers allowed 4H/4ER, 7K:1BB in 5.2IP, but three of those earned runs came thanks to Hoyt's grand slam to Ryon Healy. In June, Hoyt has pitched 12.1IP, 14H/12ER, 19K:3BB and has allowed at least one earned run in eight of his last ten appearances.
To be fair, Healy thought he had struck out one pitch before, actually dropping his bat in frustration at watching strike three (which would have ended the inning).
*The Astros had plenty of chances, getting 14 hits (11 singles). Jose Altuve and Jake Marisnick had three hits each; George Springer and Alex Bregman had two each. The Astros were 1x10 w/RISP and left ten men on base. Hinch:
It seemed to be (that) every inning we were on the cusp of breaking through against Manaea, and we couldn't quite pull it off.
Take, for instance, the 9th inning. After Springer's three-run shot, Altuve and Correa singled to put the go-ahead run at the plate. Josh Reddick popped up and Brian McCann GIDP'd to end the game. Gattis and McCann combined for a 1x9, 2 GIDP night.
Hinch:
The first six innings are really the story of the opportunities. I think we left...nine or ten guys on base in those innings alone. We did a great job of getting guys on base, getting guys in scoring position and having them in two-out at-bats. We couldn't really win any of those at-bats.
*Watch Springer's ridiculous diving catch. At 23 home runs, Springer needs one more to tie the Astros' record for HR by the All-Star Break, set by Lance Berkman.
*Richard Justice wrote nice things about Jose Altuve. Altuve:
I don't think it's that hard to have one good season - just one. To come back every year and be consistent, it's tough. That's the player I want to be.
*Will Harris: Still important!
*Friend of AC Daren Willman posted a fantastic visual of the fastest (and slowest) players on the Astros. Note that Brian McCann is the slowest on the team, and the 2nd-slowest player in baseball.
*No, Jose Quintana's slow start to the season won't lower his price.
*Charlie Morton made his second rehab start last night for Fresno and threw 4IP, 2H/0ER, 2K:1BB in a 6-3 Fresno win.
*Collin McHugh will make his first rehab start on Friday for Corpus.
*J.D. Davis and Drew Ferguson had two hits each in the South's win over the North in the Texas League All-Star Game. Garrett Stubbs added a hit. Rogelio Armenteros allowed 3H/2ER with 2K in 1IP.
*Here's an excellent piece from MiLB.com about Quad Cities' Yordan Alvarez who was acquired for, get this, Josh Fields.
*Astros 2nd-Round pick Joe Perez signed for $1.6m and this Sun-Sentinel article says 1st-Round pick J.B. Bukauskas has a deal for about $3.5m.
*2nd-Round pick Corbin Martin will sign his contract with the Astros today.
*Here's a great profile of underrated free agent Sean Johnson, free agent no longer.
*Sad news as former UH player/Astros pitcher Anthony Young died at the age of 51.
*Idiot-ass NBC just killed soccer in America.
*Fiers:
I felt pretty good. They battled me again and put me in a lot of tough situations, a lot of jams, and cashed in in the sixth.
Hoyt:
I let the team down. They put me out there in a big time in the game and I just didn't do my job.
The 6th inning was the door-buster. Fiers allowed 4H/4ER, 7K:1BB in 5.2IP, but three of those earned runs came thanks to Hoyt's grand slam to Ryon Healy. In June, Hoyt has pitched 12.1IP, 14H/12ER, 19K:3BB and has allowed at least one earned run in eight of his last ten appearances.
To be fair, Healy thought he had struck out one pitch before, actually dropping his bat in frustration at watching strike three (which would have ended the inning).
*The Astros had plenty of chances, getting 14 hits (11 singles). Jose Altuve and Jake Marisnick had three hits each; George Springer and Alex Bregman had two each. The Astros were 1x10 w/RISP and left ten men on base. Hinch:
It seemed to be (that) every inning we were on the cusp of breaking through against Manaea, and we couldn't quite pull it off.
Take, for instance, the 9th inning. After Springer's three-run shot, Altuve and Correa singled to put the go-ahead run at the plate. Josh Reddick popped up and Brian McCann GIDP'd to end the game. Gattis and McCann combined for a 1x9, 2 GIDP night.
Hinch:
The first six innings are really the story of the opportunities. I think we left...nine or ten guys on base in those innings alone. We did a great job of getting guys on base, getting guys in scoring position and having them in two-out at-bats. We couldn't really win any of those at-bats.
*Watch Springer's ridiculous diving catch. At 23 home runs, Springer needs one more to tie the Astros' record for HR by the All-Star Break, set by Lance Berkman.
*Richard Justice wrote nice things about Jose Altuve. Altuve:
I don't think it's that hard to have one good season - just one. To come back every year and be consistent, it's tough. That's the player I want to be.
*Will Harris: Still important!
*Friend of AC Daren Willman posted a fantastic visual of the fastest (and slowest) players on the Astros. Note that Brian McCann is the slowest on the team, and the 2nd-slowest player in baseball.
*No, Jose Quintana's slow start to the season won't lower his price.
*Charlie Morton made his second rehab start last night for Fresno and threw 4IP, 2H/0ER, 2K:1BB in a 6-3 Fresno win.
*Collin McHugh will make his first rehab start on Friday for Corpus.
*J.D. Davis and Drew Ferguson had two hits each in the South's win over the North in the Texas League All-Star Game. Garrett Stubbs added a hit. Rogelio Armenteros allowed 3H/2ER with 2K in 1IP.
*Here's an excellent piece from MiLB.com about Quad Cities' Yordan Alvarez who was acquired for, get this, Josh Fields.
*Astros 2nd-Round pick Joe Perez signed for $1.6m and this Sun-Sentinel article says 1st-Round pick J.B. Bukauskas has a deal for about $3.5m.
*2nd-Round pick Corbin Martin will sign his contract with the Astros today.
*Here's a great profile of underrated free agent Sean Johnson, free agent no longer.
*Sad news as former UH player/Astros pitcher Anthony Young died at the age of 51.
*Idiot-ass NBC just killed soccer in America.
One time for DJ Screw. #June27th pic.twitter.com/fHdHowQIal— #VoteAstros (@astros) June 28, 2017
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Tuesday Morning Hot Links
*Brian McTaggart brings up a pretty good point about the change-of-scenery factor for potential trade candidates Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners, Braves, and Red Sox had scouts at Gray's start on Sunday.
*Jake Kaplan wrote about Marisnick's swing adjustments this season.
*The Fresno Grizzlies are in the process of being sold.
*Seven Corpus players have made the Texas League All-Star Game: J.D. Davis, Jon Singleton, Drew Ferguson, and Garrett Stubbs will start while Rogelio Armenteros, Josh James, and Jack Mayfield are reserves.
*When Elvis Andrus homered in the 4th to give the Rangers a 9-2 lead over the Indians, Cleveland had a 3.5% chance of winning that game.
*The Dodgers' Julio Urias may never be the same.
*Beyond the Box Score: How to discourage rebuilding.
*Oh thank God. A federal judge has ruled that minor-league players can't be paid more and that MLB is perfectly within its rights under their anti-trust exemption to pay them less than a living wage.
*Jake Kaplan wrote about Marisnick's swing adjustments this season.
*The Fresno Grizzlies are in the process of being sold.
*Seven Corpus players have made the Texas League All-Star Game: J.D. Davis, Jon Singleton, Drew Ferguson, and Garrett Stubbs will start while Rogelio Armenteros, Josh James, and Jack Mayfield are reserves.
*When Elvis Andrus homered in the 4th to give the Rangers a 9-2 lead over the Indians, Cleveland had a 3.5% chance of winning that game.
*The Dodgers' Julio Urias may never be the same.
*Beyond the Box Score: How to discourage rebuilding.
*Oh thank God. A federal judge has ruled that minor-league players can't be paid more and that MLB is perfectly within its rights under their anti-trust exemption to pay them less than a living wage.
Sunday, June 18, 2017
Sunday Morning Hot Links
Shorter Hot Links this morning. Happy Fathers' Day.
*David Paulino balled out, throwing 6IP, 3H/1ER in just 81 pitches, and getting his first Major-League win in the process.
*The Astros got three runs in the 1st and three runs in the 3rd off Rick Porcello, with homers by Altuve and Beltran in the 3rd.
*Pitchers are throwing Jose Altuve fewer fastballs.
*Joe Musgrove is shooting for 100 pitches in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball tilt against the Red Sox.
*Lance McCullers may rejoin the rotation this week, and Charlie Morton could be headed for a rehab assignment, as well. God bless us, everyone.
*Nick Cafardo is reporting that the Astros and A's have "mutual interest" in a trade involving Sonny Gray. Both teams are familiar with each other, both with Double-A affiliates in the Texas League, having completed a trade for Scott Kazmir two years ago, and traded Jed Lowrie to each other approximately 46 times.
*The Yankees could make a play for Jose Quintana.
*The County Mountie wrote up some of the pitchers connected to the Astros
*ESPN's Scott Lauber: Is any team having more fun than the Astros? (In which we find out that Brian McCann is "the funny one.")
*Kyle Tucker could be on the fast track to Houston.
*David Paulino balled out, throwing 6IP, 3H/1ER in just 81 pitches, and getting his first Major-League win in the process.
*The Astros got three runs in the 1st and three runs in the 3rd off Rick Porcello, with homers by Altuve and Beltran in the 3rd.
*Pitchers are throwing Jose Altuve fewer fastballs.
*Joe Musgrove is shooting for 100 pitches in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball tilt against the Red Sox.
*Lance McCullers may rejoin the rotation this week, and Charlie Morton could be headed for a rehab assignment, as well. God bless us, everyone.
*Nick Cafardo is reporting that the Astros and A's have "mutual interest" in a trade involving Sonny Gray. Both teams are familiar with each other, both with Double-A affiliates in the Texas League, having completed a trade for Scott Kazmir two years ago, and traded Jed Lowrie to each other approximately 46 times.
*The Yankees could make a play for Jose Quintana.
*The County Mountie wrote up some of the pitchers connected to the Astros
*ESPN's Scott Lauber: Is any team having more fun than the Astros? (In which we find out that Brian McCann is "the funny one.")
*Kyle Tucker could be on the fast track to Houston.
Saturday, June 17, 2017
Checking in on pitchers connected to the Astros in trade rumors
I feel like now is an appropriate time to check in on potential trade targets to improve the Astros rotation. Oh look the Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a Sonny Gray trade. Lets check in on him and others the Astros are linked to.
Sonny Gray
The 4.44 ERA in 52.2 IP is not ideal. Expect those numbers to come down. His strikeout percentage is up this year and his walk percentage is around his career numbers. The thing that seems to be getting him this year is his homerun to fly ball ratio. His FIP and xFIP numbers are good and below his ERA at 3.33 and 3.27 respectively. I wouldn't expect the Athletics to sell low on Sonny Gray. He's controlled through the 2020 season.
Gerrit Cole
The 4.54 ERA in 83.1 IP is ugly. It's made even worse by the fact that his FIP (4.58) and xFIP (4.02) don't give much hope of that dropping. Like Gray he's giving up the long ball more than usual this year. His strikeout rate is also down. Which is probably the reason his advanced numbers are betraying him. His career numbers indicate his ERA should be in the low-to-mid three range. This might just be a down year for Cole. He's also controllable through the 2020 season.
José Quintana
Quite possibly the most talked about name in Astros pitching trade rumors. He is off to an even worse start than either Gray or Cole. His ERA is 5.07 in 81.2 IP. His FIP (4.36) and xFIP (4.40) are lower. He's giving up more home runs this year. His strikeout rate is up, but his walk rate is also up this year. He's a free agent after the 2019 season.
Chris Archer
Finally! Someone with an ERA (3.80) below four in 92.1 IP. FIP and xFIP both like Archer to get better this year. His strikeouts are up and his home run rate is down. Archer will be expensive. They turned down an offer of Kyle Tucker, Francis Martes, David Paulino, and two other prospects in January. He's controlled through the 2020 season.
Who are the other pitchers you're interested in that we haven't heard rumors on yet?
Saturday Morning Hot Links
*Don't let the 2-1 loss to the Red Sox last night overshadow how crucial Mike Fiers has been over the last four starts. Fiers threw 7IP, 5H/1ER, 4K:2BB to mark his 4th straight start with 2ER or fewer and his 2nd consecutive 7+ IP outing. Over his last four starts, Fiers has thrown 25.1IP, 19H/5ER (1.78 ERA), 25K:8BB. We linked to the article yesterday, but just in case, you can credit Fiers' refined curveball with his recent success.
*Hinch:
We played well enough to win. In the big at-bats is where this game swung a little bit.
Like the 6th inning, where Springer and Altuve drew walks, Correa hit a sharp liner to RF Mookie Betts (who also hit the go-ahead homer in the 8th). Springer tried to score and got thrown out by about a quarter of a mile. Red Sox SP Drew Pomeranz:
Mookie obviously helped me out there towards the end of the game. I don't know what [Springer] is thinking there running.
On the 7th inning, when Nori Aoki came up with two outs, Gurriel on 3rd, Fisher on 2nd. A nine-pitch AB between Aoki and reliever Joe Kelly ensued, Kelly threw all fastballs (four of them 100mph+) and got Aoki to smoke a liner to third...right into the glove of Josh Rutledge to end the inning. Hinch:
We had a great matchup with Aoki coming off the bench against Kelly, and he hits a bullet to the third baseman. One foot, one inch, one way or the other, up, down, left, right, and we might be talking about a different result.
Or the 8th, with Matt Barnes on the mound. Springer struck out swinging to lead-off the 8th, but Altuve doubled, Correa singled, and then Altuve stole 3rd, putting runners on the corners with one out. Evan Gattis got the worst possible outcome - an inning-ending GIDP.
*Alex Bregman was 0x3 to lower his slash line to .244/.319/.394 to drop his OP+ to 97, joining Beltran and Aoki as the only Astros with below-average offense.
*The Rangers won, Mariners and Angels lost. The division lead is 11 games.
*Meat Wagon Update:
Keuchel could play catch today or tomorrow.
McCullers may resume throwing this weekend.
Reddick will be ready on Tuesday.
Morton threw 15 pitches, took a break, and threw 20 more. One more bullpen and he may be off to a rehab start.
McHugh threw a bullpen session yesterday, and could face live hitters soon
Hinch:
In my shoes, it's kind of wait and see all the time when guys are coming off of injuries, small or big. We'll watch these guys play catch and then we'll meet with the medical team and assess what's next.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield has a trade scenario for you: Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, J.D. Davis, and Teoscar Hernandez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana.
*Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi: Buddies off the field
*George Springer is not interested in your derby of home runs.
*Brian T. Smith: Fans are starting to come back to Minute Maid.
*Jeff Luhnow talked to the Providence Journal about Ken Giles and evaluating the health of relievers.
*A.J. Hinch talked to Evan Drellich about Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, and following up a Cy Young season.
*Jonathan Mayo wonders if 1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas could end up in the Astros bullpen...this season.
*Fresno and Albuquerque played a crazy one last night, with the Grizzlies allowing five runs in the bottom of the 9th...but still winning, 15-14 (a day after Fresno lost to Albuquerque, 12-11). Tyler White was 5x6 with 6RBI for his 10th straight multi-hit game. In those ten games he's hitting .565/.596/1.065.
*MLB.com's Terence Moore: The Astros can challenge the 1970 Reds.
*MLBTR has the Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates.
*Astros fan Pete Van Vleet asked all 30 teams to woo his newborn son.
*Hinch:
We played well enough to win. In the big at-bats is where this game swung a little bit.
Like the 6th inning, where Springer and Altuve drew walks, Correa hit a sharp liner to RF Mookie Betts (who also hit the go-ahead homer in the 8th). Springer tried to score and got thrown out by about a quarter of a mile. Red Sox SP Drew Pomeranz:
Mookie obviously helped me out there towards the end of the game. I don't know what [Springer] is thinking there running.
On the 7th inning, when Nori Aoki came up with two outs, Gurriel on 3rd, Fisher on 2nd. A nine-pitch AB between Aoki and reliever Joe Kelly ensued, Kelly threw all fastballs (four of them 100mph+) and got Aoki to smoke a liner to third...right into the glove of Josh Rutledge to end the inning. Hinch:
We had a great matchup with Aoki coming off the bench against Kelly, and he hits a bullet to the third baseman. One foot, one inch, one way or the other, up, down, left, right, and we might be talking about a different result.
*Alex Bregman was 0x3 to lower his slash line to .244/.319/.394 to drop his OP+ to 97, joining Beltran and Aoki as the only Astros with below-average offense.
*The Rangers won, Mariners and Angels lost. The division lead is 11 games.
*Meat Wagon Update:
Keuchel could play catch today or tomorrow.
McCullers may resume throwing this weekend.
Reddick will be ready on Tuesday.
Morton threw 15 pitches, took a break, and threw 20 more. One more bullpen and he may be off to a rehab start.
McHugh threw a bullpen session yesterday, and could face live hitters soon
Hinch:
In my shoes, it's kind of wait and see all the time when guys are coming off of injuries, small or big. We'll watch these guys play catch and then we'll meet with the medical team and assess what's next.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield has a trade scenario for you: Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, J.D. Davis, and Teoscar Hernandez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana.
*Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi: Buddies off the field
*George Springer is not interested in your derby of home runs.
*Brian T. Smith: Fans are starting to come back to Minute Maid.
*Jeff Luhnow talked to the Providence Journal about Ken Giles and evaluating the health of relievers.
*A.J. Hinch talked to Evan Drellich about Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, and following up a Cy Young season.
*Jonathan Mayo wonders if 1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas could end up in the Astros bullpen...this season.
*Fresno and Albuquerque played a crazy one last night, with the Grizzlies allowing five runs in the bottom of the 9th...but still winning, 15-14 (a day after Fresno lost to Albuquerque, 12-11). Tyler White was 5x6 with 6RBI for his 10th straight multi-hit game. In those ten games he's hitting .565/.596/1.065.
*MLB.com's Terence Moore: The Astros can challenge the 1970 Reds.
*MLBTR has the Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates.
*Astros fan Pete Van Vleet asked all 30 teams to woo his newborn son.
Wednesday, June 7, 2017
Wednesday Morning Hot Links
*So the Astros got Astros'd by the Royals. Before we get into any game talk or links, or fun things to read, we need to get a few things clear. You are not obligated to agree with any of this. In fact, I hope you come at me.
1. I have no problem with how Hinch managed the bullpen. He had a 7-1 lead and when things got close, he put in his electric/erratic closer in a high-leverage situation. That's why the Astros went and got Giles. It didn't work out because the Royals did what the Royals do (or, did, anyway). But the Astros are 42-17.
2. The Astros are going to need their starters to get deeper into games so that the bullpen isn't flamed out by August (similar to 2015). This isn't groundbreaking, hard-hitting analysis. That's why, I believe, you saw Hinch bring in Guduan and Hoyt in what appeared to be a blowout - to save the arms of Devenski, Harris, Gregerson, Giles. Game Scores of Astros starting pitchers not named Dallas Keuchel, last eight games: 47, 59, 51, 43, 64, 48, 44. Every time that Game Score is at or below 50 you know the starting pitcher wasn't terribly effective. Ideally, that changes. Still, the Astros are 42-17.
3. The Astros are 11-1 in their last 12 road games. They're 42-17. Get somemotherf perspective.
4. You only notice the shift when it doesn't work. The Astros are 42-17.
5. You're pissed (and I am, too) that it happened against the Royals. I hate the "three bloop singles followed by a double down the line" playbook the Royals have used the last four years. Ken Giles was maybe an inch off the plate for strike three to Merrifield in the 8th, which would have ended the inning. The next pitch was the bases-clearing double. But the Astros are 42-17.
6. That loss cut into the Astros' division lead to make it a slim 13 games. Shut up.
*The Astros are the first Major League team to score 6+ runs in nine consecutive games since the 2004 Astros did it.
*The Astros are now 36-2 when leading after seven innings. The other loss? April 8 against the Royals. Here's Ned Yost with a steaming pile of BS for a quote:
We felt good when we were down 7-2. We didn't feel like we were out of the game.
*Giles:
I didn't make my pitches when I needed to. I let my team down. It's all on me. In my eyes, this team won today. My failure shouldn't overshadow what these guys (did) today.
Credit to Giles for not going Full Gregerson and "leaving the clubhouse before reporters could enter." Giles career ERA (flawed) with Houston is 4.15, but with a 2.85 FIP. It's fine.
BUT! Giles home v road splits, 2017:
Home (43 PAs): .100/.163/.125, 16K:2BB
Away (53 PAs): .304/.377/.522, 13K:6BB
*Mike Moustakas, who hit the walk-off homer in the 9th, on Giles:
He threw a fastball, first pitch, middle in and the guy throws hard. I fouled it off and was kind of looking for something out over the plate. Got a slider out there and put a good swing on it.
State Farm Agent Whit Merrifield, who hit the game-tying bases-loaded double off Giles:
He throws a hundred with a banger slider. Just try to see the ball as early as you can and hope for a mistake. He made one on me, and I was able to put the bat on it and find a good spot.
*The Astros have reportedly reached a deal with 6'4" 205lbs Cuban righty Elian Rodriguez for somewhere in the neighborhood of $2m. Given the overage tax the Astros enjoy, that number is actually about $4m. Click the link for Baseball America's report on him. With Yuli Gurriel in the fold, Cionel Perez already at Quad Cities and now Rodriguez, the Astros are going with the White Sox strategy of "sign Cuban players" and more Cuban players will follow.
*Looks like Marwin (hand) will avoid the DL.
*Here are updated All-Star Game numbers, for those of you that care.
*Peter Gammons says the Astros will watch Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana this week.
*Ben Lindbergh looks for the Astros' flaws.
*SB Nation's Grant Brisbee: The Astros are great, and might get even better.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield: What makes the Astros the best team in baseball?
*Yahoo's Jeff Passan: Here's why the Astros are the best team in baseball. Click this link.
*SI's Jay Jaffe says the Astros-Rangers are the best current rivalry in baseball, with the Rangers-Blue Jays coming in at 2nd. I'll let you make your own conclusions.
*Texas Standard: How to spot a bandwagon Astros fan
*Hardball Times: Where the ballpark weather comes from
*FC Dallas is only allowing 100 Dynamo fans to come to the next four games at Frisco. Triggered much, snowflakes?
*Check out this story about a 20-year old girl on trial in Massachusetts for texting encouragement to her boyfriend (?) to kill himself.
1. I have no problem with how Hinch managed the bullpen. He had a 7-1 lead and when things got close, he put in his electric/erratic closer in a high-leverage situation. That's why the Astros went and got Giles. It didn't work out because the Royals did what the Royals do (or, did, anyway). But the Astros are 42-17.
2. The Astros are going to need their starters to get deeper into games so that the bullpen isn't flamed out by August (similar to 2015). This isn't groundbreaking, hard-hitting analysis. That's why, I believe, you saw Hinch bring in Guduan and Hoyt in what appeared to be a blowout - to save the arms of Devenski, Harris, Gregerson, Giles. Game Scores of Astros starting pitchers not named Dallas Keuchel, last eight games: 47, 59, 51, 43, 64, 48, 44. Every time that Game Score is at or below 50 you know the starting pitcher wasn't terribly effective. Ideally, that changes. Still, the Astros are 42-17.
3. The Astros are 11-1 in their last 12 road games. They're 42-17. Get some
4. You only notice the shift when it doesn't work. The Astros are 42-17.
5. You're pissed (and I am, too) that it happened against the Royals. I hate the "three bloop singles followed by a double down the line" playbook the Royals have used the last four years. Ken Giles was maybe an inch off the plate for strike three to Merrifield in the 8th, which would have ended the inning. The next pitch was the bases-clearing double. But the Astros are 42-17.
6. That loss cut into the Astros' division lead to make it a slim 13 games. Shut up.
*The Astros are the first Major League team to score 6+ runs in nine consecutive games since the 2004 Astros did it.
*The Astros are now 36-2 when leading after seven innings. The other loss? April 8 against the Royals. Here's Ned Yost with a steaming pile of BS for a quote:
We felt good when we were down 7-2. We didn't feel like we were out of the game.
*Giles:
I didn't make my pitches when I needed to. I let my team down. It's all on me. In my eyes, this team won today. My failure shouldn't overshadow what these guys (did) today.
Credit to Giles for not going Full Gregerson and "leaving the clubhouse before reporters could enter." Giles career ERA (flawed) with Houston is 4.15, but with a 2.85 FIP. It's fine.
BUT! Giles home v road splits, 2017:
Home (43 PAs): .100/.163/.125, 16K:2BB
Away (53 PAs): .304/.377/.522, 13K:6BB
*Mike Moustakas, who hit the walk-off homer in the 9th, on Giles:
He threw a fastball, first pitch, middle in and the guy throws hard. I fouled it off and was kind of looking for something out over the plate. Got a slider out there and put a good swing on it.
State Farm Agent Whit Merrifield, who hit the game-tying bases-loaded double off Giles:
He throws a hundred with a banger slider. Just try to see the ball as early as you can and hope for a mistake. He made one on me, and I was able to put the bat on it and find a good spot.
*The Astros have reportedly reached a deal with 6'4" 205lbs Cuban righty Elian Rodriguez for somewhere in the neighborhood of $2m. Given the overage tax the Astros enjoy, that number is actually about $4m. Click the link for Baseball America's report on him. With Yuli Gurriel in the fold, Cionel Perez already at Quad Cities and now Rodriguez, the Astros are going with the White Sox strategy of "sign Cuban players" and more Cuban players will follow.
*Looks like Marwin (hand) will avoid the DL.
*Here are updated All-Star Game numbers, for those of you that care.
*Peter Gammons says the Astros will watch Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana this week.
*Ben Lindbergh looks for the Astros' flaws.
*SB Nation's Grant Brisbee: The Astros are great, and might get even better.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield: What makes the Astros the best team in baseball?
*Yahoo's Jeff Passan: Here's why the Astros are the best team in baseball. Click this link.
*SI's Jay Jaffe says the Astros-Rangers are the best current rivalry in baseball, with the Rangers-Blue Jays coming in at 2nd. I'll let you make your own conclusions.
*Texas Standard: How to spot a bandwagon Astros fan
*Hardball Times: Where the ballpark weather comes from
*FC Dallas is only allowing 100 Dynamo fans to come to the next four games at Frisco. Triggered much, snowflakes?
*Check out this story about a 20-year old girl on trial in Massachusetts for texting encouragement to her boyfriend (?) to kill himself.
Monday, June 5, 2017
Monday Morning Hot Links
*Well. Okay. The Astros completed their sweep of the Dealey Plaza Rangers yesterday with a 7-2 win. It's their 10th straight win and the Astros are 13.5 game up in the division. Since getting swept by Cleveland the Astros are 12-1.
*It's the first series win against the Rangers sinceApril 10-12, 2015 May 2017. It's the first sweep of the Rangers since the Astros did it in Grand Prairie from July 7-9, 2014.
*The Astros are 21-6 on the road, and the win yesterday eclipsed the 2012 Astros' road win total (they went 20-61).
*A.J. Hinch:
This team continues to show up every single day with a great will to win and we take the aggressive approach and have done a lot of damage.
*Shin-Soo Choo:
I don't think there is anything wrong. Houston just played better than us for three games...We don't have any problems, they just played better than us.
*George Springer hit two home runs, now leading the team with 16. He has hit seven home runs in his last eight games. Over the ten-game winning streak, Springer is hitting .435/.480/.913
*Brad "The Revelation" Peacock got a win as a starter for the first time since September 2, 2014, throwing 6IP, 4H/2ER, 9K:1BB.
*Richard Justice: Everything is clicking for the Astros.
*What was thought to be a one-start absence for Joe Musgrove is now two starts, as he will not pitch tomorrow (Tuesday) night against Kansas City. David Paulino will make his second start. Hinch:
He's responded well to the treatments. He's feeling better than when we put him on the DL, but we're going to push him back continually and just see where it fits later in the week.
*Luke Gregerson is totally lost on the mound, writes Jake Kaplan, noting that Gregerson has allowed a .320 batting average when the Astros are up by one run. Gregerson:
I felt great in Spring Training. The ball was coming out of my hand the best it's ever felt. Then for something like this, where I can't get that timing back, I don't know what it is.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield is the only one at the Worldwide Leader showing the Astros any love, noting that the Astros are the 7th team in the Divisional Era (since 1969) to win 41 of their first 57 games. Of those, the 1998 Yankees, 1984 Tigers, and 1986 Mets won the World Series while the 1970 Reds and 1974 Dodgers lost in the World Series. The 2001 Mariners make me sad and I don't want to talk about it.
*Buster Olney apparently felt obligated to tweet about the Astros this morning, noting that the Astros reached 25 games over .500 in the fewest games since the 2001 Mariners.
*Nick Cafardo notes that Jose Quintana's trade value is cooling off in light of his struggles this season.
*Potential trade target Justin Verlander left his start yesterday with tightness in his groin. [Insert Kate Upton joke here].
*Watch Quad Cities' Yordan Alvarez hit a ball into the dad gum Mississippi River.
*It's the first series win against the Rangers since
*The Astros are 21-6 on the road, and the win yesterday eclipsed the 2012 Astros' road win total (they went 20-61).
*A.J. Hinch:
This team continues to show up every single day with a great will to win and we take the aggressive approach and have done a lot of damage.
*Shin-Soo Choo:
I don't think there is anything wrong. Houston just played better than us for three games...We don't have any problems, they just played better than us.
*George Springer hit two home runs, now leading the team with 16. He has hit seven home runs in his last eight games. Over the ten-game winning streak, Springer is hitting .435/.480/.913
*Brad "The Revelation" Peacock got a win as a starter for the first time since September 2, 2014, throwing 6IP, 4H/2ER, 9K:1BB.
*Richard Justice: Everything is clicking for the Astros.
*What was thought to be a one-start absence for Joe Musgrove is now two starts, as he will not pitch tomorrow (Tuesday) night against Kansas City. David Paulino will make his second start. Hinch:
He's responded well to the treatments. He's feeling better than when we put him on the DL, but we're going to push him back continually and just see where it fits later in the week.
*Luke Gregerson is totally lost on the mound, writes Jake Kaplan, noting that Gregerson has allowed a .320 batting average when the Astros are up by one run. Gregerson:
I felt great in Spring Training. The ball was coming out of my hand the best it's ever felt. Then for something like this, where I can't get that timing back, I don't know what it is.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield is the only one at the Worldwide Leader showing the Astros any love, noting that the Astros are the 7th team in the Divisional Era (since 1969) to win 41 of their first 57 games. Of those, the 1998 Yankees, 1984 Tigers, and 1986 Mets won the World Series while the 1970 Reds and 1974 Dodgers lost in the World Series. The 2001 Mariners make me sad and I don't want to talk about it.
*Buster Olney apparently felt obligated to tweet about the Astros this morning, noting that the Astros reached 25 games over .500 in the fewest games since the 2001 Mariners.
*Nick Cafardo notes that Jose Quintana's trade value is cooling off in light of his struggles this season.
*Potential trade target Justin Verlander left his start yesterday with tightness in his groin. [Insert Kate Upton joke here].
*Watch Quad Cities' Yordan Alvarez hit a ball into the dad gum Mississippi River.
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