Tuesday Morning Hot Links

The Astros were off, nothing really happened, yesterday sucked. Good news is we get to do this again on Thursday, just in time to watch The Crazytrain on Kirby play a pre-season game.

Let's do this, huh?

*Playoff Odds:

Site	Proj. Rec.	% to win ALW	% to win AL	% to win WS
B-Ref	103-59	99.1%	32.1%	16.8%
FanGraphs	105-57	99.9%	41.0%	27.5%
538	105-57	99.0%	-	24.0%
BPro	104-58	99.5%	-	22.8%

Related, here's the playoff schedule. The ALDS will start on October 4 or October 5. Whichever time slot is more convenient for the Yankees, the Astros would get the other one.

pic.twitter.com/pTSuyjISAb

— MattressMack (@MattressMack) August 5, 2019

*This catalog of Zack Greinke stories is absolutely worth the price of a subscription to The Athletic. They run specials all the time, what the heck. And more from The Athletic: Eno Sarris breaks down the trade deadline winners by projection systems. And Jake Kaplan on the incredible rise of Yordan Alvarez.

This catalog of Zack Greinke stories from @ZHBuchanan is hilarious, touching and amazing. So, so good. https://t.co/aPBKx5m38x pic.twitter.com/KpIixXPFnC

— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) August 5, 2019

*Get the No-Hit Squad shirt from Breaking T (and when you use this link, I get a cut).

*Jenny Dial Creech: Greinke's first start comes with anticipation, expectations.

*Justin Verlander (and Mike Trout) are having remarkable seasons, in case you didn't know.

*Chandler Rome: Josh Reddick is sinking, while Chris Devenski is looking more like his former self.

*FanGraphs: The Astros may have salvaged another pitcher's career.

*Cubs GM Jed Hoyer basically said the Cubs traded Maldonado to the Astros because of "player happiness."

*Former Astros Great Tony Sipp rejected an outright assignment to the minors and the Nationals have requested release waivers, meaning he's headed to the open market. If they already brought back Machete, and could use another reliever since Reymin Guduan is apparently an idiot, might they try to get the whole damn band back together?

*Framber threw 6IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:1BB in a 6-3 Round Rock win over Sacramento. Nick Tanielu was 2x3 with a home run and a walk. Kyle Tucker was 1x3 with an RBI.

*Corpus managed only two runs but it was enough to shut out Frisco. Bryan Abreu (5IP) and Cristian Javier (4IP) threw 9IP, 3H/0ER, 13K:5BB - and four of those walks were Abreu's.

Cristian Javier's last ten appearances: 42.1IP, 16H/11ER, 69K:24BB, 2.34 ERA / 0.94 WHIP.

*Fayetteville pitchers walked nine batters but limited the damage in a 13-4 whoopin of Myrtle Beach. Scott Manea was 4x5 with two doubles, a home run, and 3RBI. Corey Julks was 3x4 with four runs scored and 2RBI.

*Quad Cities have scored two runs in the first three games of the series against Kane County, losing last night 3-0. 1-7 in the lineup went 0x22 with 8K.

*Joe Perez (2nd Round - 2017) hit a walkoff home run against Jenrry Mejia - yes, that Jenrry Mejia - as Tri-City beat Lowell. 2017 10th Round pick Kyle Serrano is back after basically two years of injuries, and he's happy the Astros stuck with him (this article is from, like, a month ago, but it's still applicable).

*I have some issues with Jeff Pearlman, but his podcast with Houston Chronicle reporter Keri Blakinger is absolutely fantastic.

*MLB team officials from the Dodgers, Braves, and Padres are under investigation from the Justice Department for their ties to Cuban smugglers.

*Pedro Martinez says some members of the 2009 Phillies had got dang Swine Flu during the World Series.

*Over 4,000 British boy/girl scouts went to the Orioles game on Sunday and it was freaking delightful. Former Astros Great Jonathan Villar switch-hit for the cycle last night.

*Evan P. Grant, with a quote from a fan who was a racist tirade at Globe Life Park about what transpired on Saturday, hours after the racist mass shooting in El Paso:
He made it perfectly clear during the second inning that he is not a fan of Hispanics. And he just so happened to have a Hispanic family [us] sitting in front of him and another one sitting directly behind him. During the second inning the little boy behind him who looked to be about [her son's] age kicked the back of his chair. And for the next three innings I had to hear him complain about all the illegal immigrants that were surrounding him at the game. That he should kick little Speedy Gonzalez all the way back to Mexico for kicking his seat. That Trump needs to hurry and build the wall and send all these illegals back so they won't be kicking his seat.

This isn't a joke about Dallas. Racists who get triggered by a kid at a baseball game are the joke.

*A Musical Selection:

Friday Morning Hot Links

*Stop me if you've heard this one before: a starting pitcher (in this case it's Lance McCullers) couldn't make it out of the 5th and the Blue Jays got that one inning that the Astros usually seem to get. Astros lose 7-4. The Astros are 58-28 and have a 15.5-game lead on the division with 76 games to play.

*McCullers' line: 4.1IP, 9H/6R (5ER), 3K:2BB. He threw 61 of his 100 pitches for strikes and only 13 of the 24 batters he faced got a first pitch strike. Hinch:
We didn't have a great night in a lot of aspects. They swung the bat very well, they put up a big inning against us and never really let us out of it. 

That 5th inning for McCullers went as such: Single, Single, Passed Ball, Single, Strikeout, Double, Single. After getting 18 outs in nine of his first 13 starts, McCullers hasn't made it out of the 6th in the three starts since coming off the DL (though, to be fair, his first start back was 5IP, 76-pitch outing). McCullers:
I just didn't execute that inning. I wanted to throw a purpose pitch and left it over the plate and up where [Bautista] got a hit. The inning kind of snowballed from there. 

*

Lance McCullers just threw a unknown pitch type at 45 mph, per Statcast.

— Christian Boutwell (@_CBoutwell) July 6, 2017

*Michael Feliz allowed a hit and a walk and committed a throwing error to push the game to 6-2 at the time. Feliz has inherited runners in 14 of his appearances and allowed a run in eight of them. Since June 11 Michael Feliz has come into a game with runners on base four times, inheriting seven baserunners. All seven have scored.

*Luke Gregerson, last nine appearances since taking the June 13 loss against Upper Duncanville: 8IP, 4H/0ER, 11K:2BB.

*Jose Altuve was 3x5 and Alex Bregman was 3x3 with a walk. Bregman's last three games: 7x11, 1K:3BB. Carlos Beltran hit his first home run since June 20, going 43 plate appearances between home runs.

*Carlos Correa singled to give him a 14-game hitting streak, but confusion with Altuve on covering second led to Feliz's throwing error. And then Correa got salty with how Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna handled the final out (leisurely strolling to first before lobbing a throw). Correa:
I don't know what's so special about that, throwing me a 3-2 cutter; showing me up. I go home, relax. Next time I face him, he better not give up a homer. 

Prediction: if Correa hits a homer off Osuna this series, he will ride his bat like a stick horse around the bases.

*The Astros lost for the 10th time in 41 road games. The 2016 Astros lost ten of their first twelve road games.

*Collin McHugh will make another rehab start for Corpus on Monday; Dallas Keuchel will throw off a mound this weekend.

*Charlie Morton comes off the DL to face Aaron Sanchez tonight, who is also coming off the DL. Dayan Diaz will head on back to Fresno to make room.

*Joe Musgrove felt like his mechanics were more in sync on Wednesday night. Musgrove:
I'd like the break to not be there right now to continue to work and show them that wasn't a fluke outing. I really feel like I found my piece. 

*Houston officially signed 1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas to a $3.6m bonus yesterday, slightly over slot. They also signed 10th Round pick Kyle Serrano. While 9th Round pick Mike Papierski hasn't *officially* signed (reports are he has a deal), that makes every player in the first ten rounds in the fold. Check the Draft page for financials. The signing deadline is today at 4pm Central. Any player selected in Rounds 11-40 who signs for more than $125,000 has the overage counted against the bonus pool (if you, a good little baseball player, are drafted in the 35th Round and sign for $150,000, then $25,000 is counted against the bonus pool.)

*The Astros are pretty excited about Yordan Alvarez's Futures Game appearance. Mike Elias:
He's going to have a chance to show everybody firsthand the type of talent the Astros know he is.

After hitting .360/.468/.658 for Quad Cities, Alvarez got promoted to High-A Buies Creek. In 12 games with BCA, the 20-year old Cuban is hitting .268/.365/.415 with 9K:8BB. Other teams are going to want him.

*Jon Heyman: Chris Devenski and Marwin should have made the All-Star Team

*Also Jon Heyman: Trade Martes and Kyle Tucker to Chicago for Jose Quintana and Tommy Kahnle. In his Notes Column, Heyman says that the Astros are most likely to land Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, though they inquired on Atlanta's Julio Teheran.

*Greg Rajan took a fun look at Houston's uniform tradition.

*When Jaime Garcia struck out Alex Bregman on Wednesday, it triggered this poor girl. She deleted her account because she's sorta racist.

*Corpus' J.D. Davis and Buies Creek's Myles Straw were named June Players of the Month by MiLB. Davis hit .343/.404/.627 with seven home runs and is straight up blocked by Colin Moran who is straight up blocked by Alex Bregman; Straw - the Astros' 2015 12th Round pick - hit .375/.479/.479 with 11K:20BB and went 12x15 in stolen bases in June.

*Former UH pitcher Nick Hernandez was promoted to Corpus. Hernandez - who made the Carolina League All-Star Team - threw 34IP for Buies Creek, allowing 18H/6ER, with 48K:11BB.

*Tri-City (6-10) beat the dog piss out of Brooklyn last night, 13-0. JJ Matijevic was 2x4 with his first home run and 3RBI; Reid Russell hit his 1st and 2nd homers of the season; Kyle Davis hit another home run; Jake Adams hit his 3rd home run - four players had 3RBI. Pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Colin McKee combined for 3H/0ER, 13K:4BB.

*Sung Min Kim wrote about Jose Lima's unlikely impact on the Korean Baseball Organization.

*The Nationals called a three-hour rain delay for a storm that brought drizzle for 30 minutes.

*An oral history of NBA Jam.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Don't you dare put this on Joe Musgrove. Musgrove was cruising - CRUISING, I SAY - and was one strike away from an immaculate inning in the 5th before it sort of all fell apart. BUT! the Astros could have gotten out of that inning. But whatever, Astros win 10-4 and are 7-0 against the National League. I'm kind of running out of ways to talk about this team. They're incredible and I don't really know how to process this.

*Musgrove was at 56 pitches through the 4th and dealing in the 5th before single, double, single, cheap homer - with two grounders hitting gloves before making their way to the outfield. He went 5.2IP, 5H/4ER, 6K:0BB and looked really good up until the last third of the bottom of the 5th. Carry on.

*Another 10-run, 16-hit night from this ridiculous offense. Braves manager Brian Snitker:
They just keep coming at you and coming at you. They won't let you get away with anything. The two-out and two-strike RBI - they are a really good ball club. 

*Braves OF Ender Inciarte:
I've never seen a team like that.

*In terms of fWAR, the Astros have three of the top 11 players in baseball.

*Springer and Altuve each had a three-hit night. Reddick, Marwin, and Gurriel each had two hits. The Astros hit seven doubles for the third straight game. They had three 7-double games from 2011-2016. Only the 1999 Cleveland Indians had a three-game 7+ doubles streak.

*Springer was 7x10 in the two games against Atlanta and even stole a base last night for the first time since August 2016 (and did it twice!). Hinch, on Springer:
This is as good as I've seen George swing the bat in my time with him...These two-strike base hits are exactly what he needs to do to take his offense to the next level. 

Springer has 37 hits with two strikes. I chased a stat yesterday morning for an hour and a half, so I'm not going to do that again, but that seems like a lot. Jose Altuve has 28 two-strike hits. Aaron Judge has 45 so...

As for those two steals, Hinch:
He's off probation. 

*Josh Reddick, man. Since returning from the concussion DL (51 PAs) he's hitting .477/.490/.909. Twelve of his 21 hits have gone for extra bases and he's 4x4 on stolen base attempts. And check his OBP over the last few years:
2011: .327
2012: .305
2013: .307
2014: .316
2015: .333
2016: .345
2017: .364

*Jose Altuve was hitting .188/.257/.188 on the morning of April 11. Since he's hitting .351/.421/.576.

*Alex Bregman has raised his OPS 30 points (from .711 to .741) in his last 14 starts.

*The A's, Ramgers, and Angels won while the Mariners lost. The Astros are 58-27 and have a 16-game lead with 77 games left. Here's what the AL would look like if you don't factor in Astros games (* indicates the Astros have not played them yet):

AL East
Boston: 48-34
New York: 42-34
Tampa Bay: 43-40
Baltimore: 40-41
Toronto: 39-45*

AL Central
Kansas City: 41-36
Cleveland: 39-38
Detroit: 36-43
Minnesota: 43-38
Chicago: 37-47*

AL West
Anaheim: 40-39
Frisco: 38-37
Seattle: 38-38
Oakland: 35-38

*Richard Justice says the Astros are playing smart with a 16-game lead. Hinch:
I don't think there's a guy in the clubhouse that doesn't love coming to the ballpark. When you come to the ballpark with this group - a special group of guys - they're not satisfied.

That would be the 2001 @Mariners who led by 19. The @astros would be 2nd if they can remain 16 up. Full list: pic.twitter.com/yZ0kmtD7Pt

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) July 5, 2017

*Collin McHugh threw 49 pitches in 3.2IP, 3H/2ER, 5K:0BB for Corpus last night, with both runs coming after throwing three perfect innings. The plan was for McHugh to throw 45 pitches. McHugh:
Obviously, you don't want to give up those runs in that last inning but to be able to get into that fourth inning and being pretty efficient along the way you kind of breathe a sigh of relief. You move forward from there for sure. 

In that game, Kyle Tucker went 2x3 with a double, home run, and two walks. Tucker is hitting .366 with four home runs, 8K:6BB in his last 10 games. If the Astros can land a frontline starter without giving up Tucker, Luhnow's statue will go in on August 1.

*Speaking of potentially-available frontline starter, may I present to you Marcus Stroman.

*With the signing deadline for draft picks coming at 4pm Central tomorrow (Friday) the Astros still do not have deals with 1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas and 10th Round pick Kyle Serrano. 9th Round pick Mike Papierski hasn't officially signed, but does have a deal. Mike Elias said yesterday:
I wouldn't say there's been anything out of the ordinary yet for this point in the process. There's a very small window this year in terms of signing players. A lot of these kids, their seasons ended rather late and we don't have a ton of time to work out everything about a deal.

But wait, what's this:

Chapel Hill ✈️ Houston

— Jacob Bukauskas (@JBukauskas22) July 6, 2017

*Someone come get A.J. Pierzynski:

AJ Pierzynski, still an asshole pic.twitter.com/cr45NvS4of

— Bill Hooser (@bill_hooser) July 6, 2017

*Here's a good article on the life of 17-year old phenom Hunter Greene.

*This is one of the dumbest things I've ever read. Naturally it's a Chicago guy.

*Can you draw all 50 states? Answer: No, you can't

10-301: Kyle Serrano

With their 10th Round pick (301st overall) the Astros selected 6'3" 195lbs RHP Kyle Serrano, a junior out of the University of Tennessee.

Kyle Serrano, the son of Dave Serrano - who resigned as the head coach of Tennessee in the last week of the season - had Tommy John Surgery after sustaining an elbow injury in his first start of the 2016 season. As a result, Serrano appeared in 9.2IP (nine games) for the 2017 Volunteers with a 3.72 ERA in 2017, with his season cut short in April because of "unspecified health reasons." He was originally drafted by the Rockies in the 29th Round in 2013.

When he left the program on April 21, UT's Twitter account said:
We ask for the respect of privacy for Kyle, his family and the team at this time.

He's the first Tennessee draftee for the Astros since Tyler Duffy in the 2011 draft (20th Round).

On Cape Cod in 2015, Serrano struck out 38 batters (eight walks) with a 3.68 ERA in 36.2IP.

Coming into 2017, Serrano was #93 on Baseball America's Top 100 draft prospects list.

The slot for the 301st overall pick is $133,500.