Showing posts with label Astros. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Astros. Show all posts

Saturday, January 18, 2020

A Liar Wrote This

Baseball has always been a sport by and for the liars.  

For example, the popular origins of the game are manifestly a lie.   Albert Spalding, a former player who became wealthy by selling and packaging the game, invented the myth that the rules of baseball sprung into the mind of Civil War hero Abner Doubleday during his idyllic boyhood in the hamlet of Cooperstown, New York.  As baseball historian John Thorn put it in his excellent book Baseball in the Garden of Eden,  “If in the end no one invented our national game, and its innocent Eden is a continuing state of delusion, he,” meaning Spalding, “as unwittingly as Abner Doubleday invented baseball, invented its religion and its shrine.”  Continuing states of delusion are big business, and always have been.  Anyone who’s gone to Cooperstown can tell you this.  The place is beautiful.  On Hall of Fame Induction weekends, packed.  Does it matter that this place has nothing to do with the origins of the game?  Of course not, but it’s nice to think so.  We love the lie.  The lie feels comforting. 

Integrity is a another lie that baseball has always sold with great success.  After the 1919 Chicago White Sox threw the World Series, organized baseball hired Kenesaw Mountain Landis as its Captain Renault to announce they were shocked, shocked to find gambling in baseball, banning the accused players for life.  Of course, gambling was far more widespread than professional baseball has ever been comfortable admitting, and there is some evidence that Landis had less appetite to punish Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker, true icons of the era, for similar antics.  That pattern has repeated itself, in recent times most famously with the steroid scandal.  Baseball willfully avoided what was an open secret until it was impossible to do so when a player finally went on the record about how widespread the problem was. 


The scandal over the use of cameras to steal signs has exploded across baseball and social media.  The Astros have been punished, and deserve it.  This scandal has several similarities to the historical scandals noted above.  Like the steroids scandal, there has been much hand-wringing over the effect of the players not participating in the scheme.  Whistleblower Mike Fiers said as much to Ken Rosenthal about his motivation for speaking up about the Astros malfeasance: “I just want the game to be cleaned up a little bit because there are guys who are losing their jobs because they’re going in there not knowing… Young guys getting hit around in the first couple of innings starting a game, and then they get sent down.”  This echoes the lamentations about steroid use: clean players wouldn’t be able to make it in a game full of juiced players.  Like both scandals, MLB would clearly prefer to sell us a new lie: that this was the fault of a few, outed malefactors and to pay no attention to what’s behind the curtain:  it’s only AJ Hinch sitting on his hands while Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora cook the books. 

But an interesting thing is happening:  The mob wants to see what’s behind the curtain for itself.  Maybe it’s social media or the fact that most of us have grown up with a 24/7 news cycle, but we want everything out of any sensational story we can possibly get.  MLB’s refusal to give us that has led to a circus atmosphere on Twitter where everything could be, and might be, true.  Rumors from fake niece accounts are retweeted by respectable journalists.  The son of the Mariners’ former first base coach posts on Instagram that the MLB is hushing up the fact that Mike Trout uses HGH.  Circus, hell, there’s even confetti.

Maybe this is free-for-all is a symptom of us losing our patience for the lie.  As a manager told Ken Rosenthal in the original story, this issue “permeates” the whole league.  MLB doesn’t want to hear that, but Twitter definitely does.  But the truth might be that the Banging Scheme’s best corollary might not be Steroids or the Black Sox, but something more mundane and widespread.  What I’m speaking of is the widely-acknowledged fact that pitchers doctor the baseball, and have always doctored the baseball.  Like electronic sign-stealing, putting a foreign substance on the baseball is illegal.  However, the latter is winked and nodded at.   Rob Friedman, of Pitching Ninja fame, tweets out video of Pedro Martinez snapping off hellacious changeups while also tweeting videos of Pedro joking about Jheri curls.  No one is troubled by this, seemingly not Mike Fiers, but why? Aren’t the careers of young hitters potentially harmed when they fail to perform against pitchers throwing baseballs breaking more than they otherwise would if not slick with pine tar?  Couldn’t young hitters get sent down? 

I suppose the answer is two-fold.  As ESPN’s David Shoenfield has written, “Applying a foreign substance to the ball seems to be an accepted part of the game, unless you're clearly and obviously violating the rule.”  Meaning, it’s possible to cross a visible line to the point where the cheating is impossible to ignore.  This is a weird ethical scheme in which some cheating is okay as long as it’s possible for the other side to check on you that you don’t cheat too much.  The second point is that people have been doctoring baseballs forever, and the longevity of the practice lends it a certain acceptance. 

But how effective are these distinctions? To the first, it seems that players have been policing electronic sign-stealing, monitoring the opposing teams for what is deemed as excessive and obvious behavior.  Perhaps that’s why the rumors of the Astros wearing wearable buzzers have triggered paranoia by even hitters, because this would take an acceptable form of cheating entirely under the table.  After all, even if you use an camera to crack the signs, you still have to get to signal the hitter.  If the other side can’t monitor your signals, all bets are off. And let’s be honest on this Astros fan blog: no one would, or should, put the use of buzzers past them.  It’s notable that in this scandal, it’s mostly been pitchers who have been vocal critics of the Astros' tactics.  The hitters know how widespread this practice has been, and that they have benefited.  Before Fiers went on the record, electronic sign-stealing seemed to be an increasingly accepted part of the game.  Heck, Lance McCullers Jr. openly tweeted about it a year ago.  One of the most honest responses by any player to the Astros scandal came from Logan Morrison, who admitted that he viewed electronic sign-stealing as a “tool in the tool belt” for sign-stealing.  Do we honestly think Logan Morrison is alone in his sentiment among current players?  It’s possible to view Mike Fiers as breaking an unwritten rule of engagement in the Cold War between hitters and pitchers: “We don’t talk about goo, you don’t talk about sign-stealing.” 

But what about the second point, that doctoring baseballs has always been a part of the game, and electronic sign-stealing has not?  That’s not entirely true.

One of the most famous moments in baseball history, one that’s lionized throughout the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, is the “Shot Heard Round the World.”  In 1951, in the third game of a three-game playoff to decide the National League pennant between the Dodgers and Giants at the Polo Grounds, Giants third baseman Bobby Thompson hit a three-run walk-off homerun in the bottom of the ninth inning off of the Dodgers’ Ralph Branca to send the Giants to the World Series.  Broadcaster Russ Hodges hysterical radio refrain of “The Giants win the pennant!” is embedded in baseball lore.  But according to Joshua Prager in his 2008 book The Echoing Green, Thompson knew the pitch was coming.  The Giants third base coach was hidden in centerfield with a telescope, and once he cracked the Dodgers signs he pressed a button to signal the Giants bullpen with a buzzer.  One buzz was a fastball, two buzzes was an off-speed pitch.  The Giants backup catcher relayed the sign to the hitter.  Interestingly, Prager reported that when he first wrote about the sign-stealing scheme in 2001, he was accused by old guard sportswriters of messing with the myth of the American game.  Bobby Thompson never had to worry about a Jomboy.  In the aftermath of Rob Manfred’s punishment of the Astros, we are starting to see more veteran baseball players admit that using cameras to steal signs is way more wide-spread than previously thought. The 2017 Astros were not a team of scheming millennial ballplayers unwise to the unwritten rules of the game: they were led by widely respected veterans, including one infamous for policing those unwritten rules.  This begs the question: if using cameras to steal signs was part of the game in at least the 1950s,  1980s, and 2010s, when was it definitively not being used? Can we say that any particular dramatic moment on a professional baseball diamond didn’t feature electronic sign-stealing?

I’m not writing this to absolve the actions of the Astros.  Despite the fact that it’s widespread and been part of the game for years, electronic sign-stealing is against the rules, and rule-breakers should get punished.  I suppose you could reduce what I’m doing to “adding context.”  But maybe that’s a lie, too.  Even if what the Astros did was not unique, it seems clear from that, as McCullers pointed out: the tech is too far ahead.  The game has slowed down as the diamond has become a presumed surveillance state.  In the end, it’s probably for the best that Rob Manfred came down hard on someone, even if it happened to be the Astros.  Maybe now the owners, general managers, and managers who allowed electronic sign-stealing to permeate will get serious about self-policing a game that is becoming admittedly slower and harder to watch. 

And maybe the only utility of this article is to tell a story to myself about the actions of players that I genuinely like, about one of the best sports moments of my life, to give me the space to feel better about what they did and achieved.  It’s comforting to live in that space, like Cooperstown is comforting.  

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Potential Spin Rate Trade Targets for the Astros

The Houston Astros made a sneaky good trade last year with the addition of Ryan Pressly. For the Twins he had a 3.40 ERA over 51 games. With the Astros 0.77 ERA over the 26 remaining games of the season. In the playoffs he allowed 1 run in five innings. The dude was is nails. He's continued his success with a 1.47 ERA in 36 games this year.

One of the reasons the Astros targeted Pressly was because of his high spin rate. According to Baseball Savant he's second in the league with 3104 RPM. The leader is Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Chris Stratton who has a spin rate of 3105 RPM. Spin rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released, according to MLB.com. The more spin on fastballs and breaking balls; the tougher they are to hit. On the other end of the spectrum the less spin on changeups and knuckleballs makes those pitches harder to hit.

Spin rate isn't the only indicator of success. Stratton has a career 5.06 ERA in 256+ innings. Pitch usage, control, command, umpires, ballparks, weather, fans, hot dogs, nachos, and political arguments on Twitter all still play a factor (caveat: Some of these play a larger role). Still Charlie "F" Morton is top 10 in spin rate with 2875 (remember him?). Justin Verlander is Top 20. Mike Fiers 24th.

With the Astros in need of pitching help, I decided to take a look at the Top 50 pitchers (and one outside) and spin rate and see if there are any sneaky (or not so sneaky) pitchers the Astros could be targeting.

Sonny Gray - Cincinnati Reds

Despite a +37 run differential, the Reds are in the NL Central cellar. Gray has a 3.94 ERA in 82+ innings. There are signs the ERA could improve even more over the remaining season. He has a 3.62 FIP and 3.64 xFIP. He ranks 7th in spin rate with 2891 RPM. He's in the Astros budget ($7.5MM this year) and controllable over the next three years ($30.5MM) and has a club option for 2023.

Felipe Vazquez - Pittsburgh Pirates

Unlike the Reds, the Pirates have a -43 run differential. They will have to make a decision soon on being sellers or buyers soon. This year is different from past years in that there is no longer a waiver trade deadline. It's all July 31 or nothing. 

Vazquez, unlike the rest of the pitchers on this list, is a reliever. He's left-handed though. Something the Astros desperately need in the bullpen. This year he has a 1.80 ERA in 35 innings. His 2765 RPM ranks 26th in the league. He's signed through 2021 (four years $22MM) with club options for 2022 and 2023. 

Marcus Stroman - Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays own a -77 run differential in a AL East dominated by New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays (yes the Rays), and Boston Red Sox. There's already talk of Stroman and the Astros. Stroman has a 3.18 ERA over 105+ innings. He's 32nd in spin rate. His 3.82 FIP and 4.16 xFIP suggest he may have some clunkers in the second half of the season. He's a free agent in 2021. 

Tanner Roark - Cincinnat Reds

Roark has a 3.36 ERA or 85+ innings. He ranks 38th in spin rate Like Stroman, his 3.50 FIP and 4.39 xFIP suggest that there are some bad outings ahead. He's controllable through the end of next season and someone that probably won't cost as much as a Gray or Stroman. 

James Taillon - Pittsburgh Pirates

Right at 50th in spin rate is Taillon. Unfortunately, he's on the 60-day IL and was recently cleared to play catch. I doubt he's traded. 

Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers

This was suggested by Michael Shopoff (@mshopoff) on Twitter. Boyd was recently connected to the Astros by Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Boyd has a 3.72 ERA in 101+ innings. His 3.58 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are a good indicator of continued success. He ranks 152 in spin rate. A fourseam (50%) and slider (35%) are the pitches he uses the most. He's dropped his sinker, curve, and changeup for the most part this year.

What other potential trade targets would you like to see the Astros go after?

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Astrosball Review

I just finished reading Astrosball: The New Way to Win It All by Ben Reiter. What a fantastic and fun read. It's especially exciting for those that lived and breathed the Astros from 2011-2017.

There are so many good insights and stories and quotes like, "But Jeff Luhnow's not paid to win popularity contests. He's paid to fucking deliver. and he's doing that." It's hard to figure out where to start. I guess we could start with the book is an insider view of the Astros from 2011 to the spring of 2018. They talk about the process of building a championship team. They own up to the mistakes made and how they need to go about improvements.

It talks about making statistically sound decisions that don't work; and statistically unsound decisions that do work. Every major news catching event from 2011 on is covered. The drafting of Carlos Correa over five others. Drafting but not signing Brady Aiken. The Ground Control breach. Trading for Justin Verlander. All covered with insider information. I'm quite pleased with how behind the scenes we get to go on this book.

Ben Reiter is an amazing writer and kept me engaged through out the book. At one point I was planning to read for 30 minutes. Three hours later I forced myself to go to bed right before the Justin Verlander trade really heated up. The detail, research, and effort put into this book is clearly on the page. If you loved Moneyball, you will love this book. Go pick this book up! You will not be disappointed.

Amazon

Barnes&Noble

Other 

Monday, January 29, 2018

ZiPS Projections for a World Series Champion, 2013-2018

In case you hadn't heard, the Astros completed their metamorphosis in 2017, rising from the official Worst Team in Baseball (with a bottom farm system to boot) to the World Series Champions.  I have a cap and a tee shirt that displays that fact, so I get to be reminded of that on a near-daily basis.  I simply thought it would never happen, so the fact that it did happen so early in their window of contention makes us serious fans think that the future may continue to be very, very bright.

Every year since 2015, I have had a look at how the the Astros have been projected in pre-season assessments from 2013 onward.  This is mostly an exercise for entertainment purposes: for example, this is an exercise looking at pre-season projections, not at actual performance results, so it does have some significant limitations in assessing performance.  What these projections do note, however, is the incredible improvement in the Astros' ability to secure talented players - at least from their early 2010's tear-down onward.

The ZiPS projections were initially invented by Dan Szymborski, who used to write for the one the early sabermetric sites, the Baseball Think Factory.  ZiPS is one of two projection systems (the far more simple Steamer being the other) that the Fangraphs website uses.  Fangraphs does an amazing job of publishing high-quality and well authored articles on a near-daily basis.  Fangraphs also has a subscriptions section (Fangraphs Memberships) which is available for a yearly cost of $50, which is a great way of supporting a fascinating and high-quality site, if you want to encourage excellent contemporary baseball discourse.

Anyhow, below are the Astros projections from 2013-2018, with the earliest at the top.  The change is incredible - only one player has been consistent throughout the projections (José Altuve, of course), but the days of signing the Lucas Harrells and the Brett Wallaces have become the days of trading players better than Harrell and Wallace for potential high end starting pitching.

But without further ado...

Projections from 2013:


Projections from 2014:

Projections from 2015:

Projections from 2016:

Projections from 2017:

Projections from 2018:


Normally at this point, I include my comments and thoughts on how I perceive the changes in the Astros system throughout this article.  On this occasion, however, I wonder whether it is better to let it all sink in to the various readers, and let you guys make your comments on the rise of the Astros' system.  

I guess if I wanted to say something - and this is picking the lowest of the low-hanging fruit here - the development of José Altuve has been simply incredible.  His projected win totals from 2013 onward: 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 6.  His actual win totals (fWAR) from 2013 onward has been more impressive: 1, 5, 5, 7, 8 (these totals are rounded for the sake of simplicity).  Altuve is also the rare combination of performance and being a joy and a marvel to watch, and the Astros need to extend him, like, yesterday.  The guy is incredible, and I haven't even commented on his outstanding physical attribute, or how well he handles himself off the field.  Altuve (moreso Altuve's incredible baseball development), more than anyone or anything else, defines the World Series winning Astros, in my opinion.

This concludes my "Love Letter to José Altuve" - apologies for the digression.

Getting back to the point, those of us that can remember the 2007-2014 Astros deserve  to bask in these projections for a while longer - like, the rest of the offseason.  

So comment away, and enjoy doing so.  

Friday, June 30, 2017

Should the Astros be worried about their defense?

While the New York Yankees were driving in five runs against the Houston Astros in the 6th inning of Friday nights game, I decided to take a gander at the Yankees BABIP. The inning was full of weak and soft contact. I wondered if the Yankees were one of the luckier teams in the league as far as batting average on balls in play is concerned. They're 4th in the league in BABIP. Which means they're one of the luckier teams on balls put in play. Last year they were the third unluckies team in BABIP.

That's not why I'm writing this post, though (well maybe it does play in a little bit). While looking up these numbers I noticed that the Astros Def stat on Fangraphs had a minus next to it. Def is not a good stat to look at for players or teams on Fangraphs, so I decided to dig a little deeper. I decided to focus on Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). These two statistics are some of the newer more advanced stats that evaluate a players and teams defense.

The Astros are 18th in DRS and 27th in UZR. According to the advanced defensive metrics they're below average defensively. Lets dig a little deeper. UZR likes George Springer in center. That's about it. Everyone else is average or below average. Alex Bregman at third base looks really bad. Everyone else is below average but only slightly. It's worth noting that defensive metrics take years to show a guys true talent. The metrics at this point of the season aren't reliable, but it's what we have.

On the DRS side, Springer again gets high marks for his defense in center field. Like UZR, it doesn't like Bregman at third base or Brian McCann behind home plate (UZR doesn't rate catchers). Side note: Dallas Keuchel is quite possibly the best defensive player on the team with five DRS (UZR doesn't rate pitchers either).

There's not really much the Astros can do to fix the defense. McCann, while maybe not great at defense, does handle the pitching staff really well and he's provding some offense. Bregman is a young player and probably still learning the position. He came up as a shortstop through the Astros system. Watching him he looks solid at the hot corner.

Are you concerned about this teams defense? The playoffs will amplify defensive miscues in the playoffs. The Astros while not terrible are not exactly a defensive juggernaught. I don't know that there's anything they can do about it.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Checking in on pitchers connected to the Astros in trade rumors

I feel like now is an appropriate time to check in on potential trade targets to improve the Astros rotation. Oh look the Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a Sonny Gray trade. Lets check in on him and others the Astros are linked to.

Sonny Gray

The 4.44 ERA in 52.2 IP is not ideal. Expect those numbers to come down. His strikeout percentage is up this year and his walk percentage is around his career numbers. The thing that seems to be getting him this year is his homerun to fly ball ratio. His FIP and xFIP numbers are good and below his ERA at 3.33 and 3.27 respectively. I wouldn't expect the Athletics to sell low on Sonny Gray. He's controlled through the 2020 season. 


Gerrit Cole

The 4.54 ERA in 83.1 IP is ugly. It's made even worse by the fact that his FIP (4.58) and xFIP (4.02) don't give much hope of that dropping. Like Gray he's giving up the long ball more than usual this year. His strikeout rate is also down. Which is probably the reason his advanced numbers are betraying him. His career numbers indicate his ERA should be in the low-to-mid three range. This might just be a down year for Cole. He's also controllable through the 2020 season.


José Quintana

Quite possibly the most talked about name in Astros pitching trade rumors. He is off to an even worse start than either Gray or Cole. His ERA is 5.07 in 81.2 IP. His FIP (4.36) and xFIP (4.40) are lower. He's giving up more home runs this year. His strikeout rate is up, but his walk rate is also up this year. He's a free agent after the 2019 season. 


Chris Archer

Finally! Someone with an ERA (3.80) below four in 92.1 IP. FIP and xFIP both like Archer to get better this year. His strikeouts are up and his home run rate is down. Archer will be expensive. They turned down an offer of Kyle Tucker, Francis Martes, David Paulino, and two other prospects in January. He's controlled through the 2020 season. 


Who are the other pitchers you're interested in that we haven't heard rumors on yet?

Monday, June 12, 2017

Who is MLB Draft pick J.B. Bukauskas from North Carolina

The Houston Astros just made their first of five selections in the first 100 picks of the MLB Draft. With the 15th pick in the first round they took J.B. Bukauskas a right-handed pitcher from North Carolina. He's a guy with a good breaking pitch. He was ranked 7th overall by MLB.com.

Here's some more information on the Astros newest addition to the farm system:

Wikipedia

2017 MLB Draft profile by minor league ball

In 2014 he emailed area scouts for all 30 teams and told them he was going to North Carolina. The Arizona Diamondbacks drafted him 20th overall in 2014. True to his word he did not sign with them.

Video draft profile from MLB.com

Baseball America draft profile

Q&A with MLB Daily Dish 

Friday, May 12, 2017

Astros County Roundtable - the first 35 games

So the Astros sit with a ML-leading 24 wins against and ML equal-low 11 losses.  That adds up to a nice round 35 games, so Astros County, Masked Marvel and (Not Hank) Aaron took the opportunity to sit around their comically large boardroom roundtable which sits on the 48th floor of an awesome looking skyscraper overlooking downtown Houston, to discuss the season to this point.


Aside from "Wooo!!", what are your thoughts on the season so far, in a sentence or less...

MM:  The Astros have done what they needed to do to this point - pound on division rivals with a 17-6 record.

AC: The Astros have been able to make up for their own shortcomings, either through offense when the pitching is bad or pitching when the offense is bad.

NH: Season is playing out as planned, explosive offense and solid bullpen making up for league average starting pitching.


What do you think has been the most important ingredient in the Astros' fast start??

MM:  The 2017 Astros were drawn up to be a team with no holes, unlike every other Astros team since the early naughties.  Their stars, perhaps aside from Altuve, all have room to grow and get better (sorry about the Altuve height reference), and what the Front Office did this year was to add some solid lefty bats to augment those guys.  As a result, and as often referenced, the Astros bat solidly from 1 through 9.

Looking at the fWAR rankings for the position players illustrates this point nicely.  Through approximately the first month of the season, there have been some outstanding performances from non-Astros: Bryce Harper leads baseball with a 2.4 fWAR already.  Miguel Sano, Freddy Freeman, Mike Trout, Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman (!) all sit slightly back just over 2.0 fWAR - those are the six position players over 2 for the season so far.

The leading Astro in terms of fWAR??  The recently-hit Carlos Correa (1.2), followed by... no other Astros above 1.0 fWAR.  But, of the other seven major position players only Carlos Beltrán sits in negative territory (-0.4).  Springer, Altuve and McCann have all contributed (just under 1 fWAR), as have part-timers MarGo (1.0) and El Oso Blanco (0.5).

Similar story with the pitchers: the leading pitcher via fWAR is Chris Sale with 2.4.  The leading Astro is AL Pitcher of the Month, Dallas Keuchel (1.1); closely followed by starters Charles Morton and Lance McCullers (0.8) and reliever Chris Devenski (1.0).  Mike Fiers sits at -1.0 fWAR for the season, so he is the worst-performed Astro this season.  And no one expects a >40% HR/FB rate to continue.

So no outstanding, season-long performances as yet for the Astros, just solid contributions from almost everyone.

AC: They've gotten production from everywhere. Like MM said, there hasn't been one person you look to and think, "they're carrying this team." (Maybe Marwin?)  But it still doesn't feel like the whole team has clicked together yet. Gregerson and Giles are a little concerning. Mike Fiers is a lot concerning. Bregman hasn't found his power yet. And still they're leading the division. This is fun.

NH: The depth of the lineup has paid dividends in the late innings. I'm not sure if this is a real factor, or something I've made up, but it really seems like running out 9 above average hitters consistently has worn pitching staffs down, allowing for the late inning explosions. The team is putting up a .343 OBP, and a 121 wRC+ overall.  In the last 30 days, excluding that odd opening, it's .351 and 127. Keep that up, and this team will cruise.


The Astros' Pythagoran record is 22-13 (168 runs for, 127 against).  Anything worrying y'all about the Astros moving forward??

AC: No, it's about time this franchise caught some breaks.

NH: That's hardly extreme. Nothing about their performance this far screams regression. Team BABIP is pretty normal. They are outperforming their FIP but matching their xFIP. This is a team who was expected to be good and has been good


Who are you watching in the minors who can help the 2017 Astros from on the Farm???

MM:  Tony Sipp (4.05 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 5.62 xFIP) has been better of late, but he has only been used in a mop-up role recently.  I don't think that he is the (touches wood) postseason lefty for the Astros.  So I am interested in the lefties on the farm, and they don't have to be good against righties.

In Fresno, Ashur Tolliver (9.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP) and Sean Stutzman (8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.731 WHIP) have been used in short relief only (six and three games respectively).  Reymin Guduan has been used more (13 games, 15.2IP) but hasn't been good (8.62 ERA, 1.787 WHIP).

I mentioned Michael Freeman in the last roundtable, and he has been used a lot (13 games, 19 IP), recording good results in Corpus (3.32) without good peripherals (19 H, 16 BB, 14K, 1.842 WHIP).  Stutzman was the standout lefty here in a small sample prior to his promotion (5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 8K).

Further down the farm in Buies Creek, Framber Valdez has thrown 25.2 innings in 6 games (4 starts). He has a 1.247 WHIP, with 31 strikeouts against 15 walks.  Cionel Perez has to be added to the 40-man at the end of the year (thanks to the Astros rescinding their initial offer because of his physical exam), and he has appeared in 3 games for the River Bandits (all starts), through 10 innings, with a 11.70 ERA.

So, yeah, interest, but no one standing out.  The next Astros LOOGY will come from outside the organisation, it seems.

AC: I would have said Brady Rodgers, because he was the one bright spot in the rotation, so I guess I default to Frankie Tuesday after Rodgers' Tommy John surgery last week. The Astros do need another arm, and Martes would be the one guy to do it that wouldn't cost any prospects. I don't see anyone making an Altuve/McCullersesque jump and coming straight from Double-A. So Fresno is what you get.

NH: Gurriel has been really weird, and we still have no idea who he is. .095/.095/.095 first 8 games, .451/.472./.686 next 14, .152/.243/.182 next 9. Reed has been good in AAA, but not great (.282/.406/.455, 27% K rate). I'm really curious to see which of those two winds up the Astros 1st baseman in the second half.


MarGo: breakout year or just a blip of awesomeness??

AC: Blip of awesomeness, unless it just took him six years to figure out Major-League pitching.

NH: Will he wind up with a 190 wRC+? No. Can he be an above average hitter the rest of the year? I'm not seeing any reason why not.  

MM:  MarGo had a .298 OBP coming into the season.  Blummer talks a lot about him chasing the back foot slider until this point in his career.  If he can continue his strong walk rate (12.2% this season, against a career 5.1%), I guess he has a chance at a late-career breakout.


What will the next 30 games hold?

AC: So, here are the opponents until G60 (or 64, at which point the Astros will have played 40%-ish of the season): 2 vs Atlanta, 4 at New York, 3 at Miami, 3 vs Cleveland, 4 vs Detroit, 3 vs Baltimore, 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Texas, 4 at Kansas City, and 3 vs Anaheim. That's 17 games on the road. The Astros also play 10 games against the Yankees, Orioles, and Indians, who are all shaping up to be good teams. The four-game set against the Yankees later this week will be another measuring-stick series, to see if the Astros are this good, or the rest of the AL West is that bad.

NH: I really think this team can hang with every team on their schedule, and being on the road should not bother the offense too much. I'm not expecting another 20-10 record, but, if they post a winning record over the next 30 days it will bode very well. This is the toughest stretch they'll face this season, and it's not particularly close.

MM: I think that the Astros may return to earth a little in the next 30 games, but should maintain their lead in the AL-West.  The huge comebacks will dry up a little.  They need to avoid injuries to the starting rotation, and get some innings allocated to the back end of the bullpen.  If they can keep playing solidly, they should build on this start, but obviously not at a .686 clip.  I think they will maintain their division lead at or above five games, which is probably the most important thing.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

The Carlos Gomez decision

The Astros have a very important decision to make over the next few weeks. What to do with Carlos Gomez. The answer seems obvious. Keep him. When you look at his numbers however that might not be the obvious call.

I like Gomez. He's fun to watch. He plays a mean centerfield and he has a proven track record. The problem is that he is having the worst year of his career. His numbers on offense and defense are down this year. He has a 57 wRC+ (100 average) and a fWAR on the negative side of zero. It might seem like he's starting to turn it around. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case.

In his last 28 days he's hit for a .562 OPS. It only gets worse from there with a .495 and .464 OPS in the last 14 and seven days respectively. He's posted a .625 OPS in 117 games for the Astros the last two years. What's concerning for Gomez is that his .297 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only a little below his .314 career average. Gomez should see that regress towards his career average, but it won't help make him league average offensively. The projection systems (ZiPS and Steamer) have him providing the Astros with 88-91 wRC+ the rest of the way.

Gomez seems to be struggling with the strikeout this year more than any other. He has a 30.9% strikeout percentage (K%). That is a career high for him and well above his 23.1% career average. It would seem that Gomez may not be fully healthy. The Mets were the first team to acquire Gomez last year before the trade deadline. Except that they backed out after getting a look at his medicals.

Whatever the reason, Gomez is not producing this season. Which opens the door to him potentially being released by the Astros before the season is out. Again, I like Gomez but he's not helping this team. His offense is down and his defense isn't exactly making up for that lost value. That's not someone I see the Astros adding to the playoff roster.  Not with Yulieski Gurriel on the way.

I don't think a decision on Gomez is imminent. If he continues to play the way he is I can see the Astros releasing Gomez when Gurriel is ready. His contract is up at the end of the year and I don't see the Astros trying to resign him this offseason. Roster wise the Astros need a spot for Gurriel and either he or Bregman will be playing in left field with the other manning the hot corner. If Gomez were to be released, Colby Rasmus can start in center field.

I hope Gomez gets hot and makes the decision a tough one on the Astros. Right now he's just not and the clock is ticking on the Carlos Gomez era in Houston.



Sunday, July 24, 2016

Astros call-up Alex Bregman

From this day forward, July 25, 2016, will be known as Alex Bregman Day.

Bregman's call-up has been speculated since after the All-Star break. During the Future Games Bregman came a home run shy of the cycle. Before the second-half of the season got underway Keith Law named Bregman the number one prospect in baseball.

In 80 minor league games this season between AA and AAA he's hit .306/.406/.580. This season he's surprised prospect evaluators with power. He's hit 20 home runs in just 80 games this season. Drafted as a shortstop, Bregman is expected to play third base. Which will shift Luis Valbuena to first base and Marwin Gonzalez back to a utility role.

I thought Bregman would be called up after the trade deadline. He needs a 40-man spot and I figured the Astros would try to clear some space via a trade to avoid having to designate someone for assignment. It appears I was wrong and Danny Worth is the odd man out. To me this signals that the Astros aren't close to any significant trades and feel it's better to add Bregman now than later.

Happy Bregman Day!


Thursday, July 11, 2013

How Many People Are in this "Astros County" and Who in the World Are They?

I giggle every time I think of the premise of the Astros County site. The idea that the Astros don't have enough fans to fill a nation, but rather just a county has never been more accurate than in 2013. With that thought worming its way through my head I started to wonder about who these fans were living in my county. So it's time, Astros fans, to get to know your neighbor.

I'll be reaching out to an Astros fan each week to see what it is about this team and these people that keep us coming back year after year no matter what the team's record is or who is on the field.

I'll ask each fan the same 9 questions (9 - get it?) and we'll see how varied the answers are. I'm looking forward to getting to know the fans and I hope you find this interesting as well. If you want to play along, shoot me an email with your answers and maybe you'll be the next part of Astros County to share your fan history.

First up - @bbfanlady (she prefers we use her twitter name to protect the innocent). I can tell you this about her - she knows her stuff. A lifelong baseball fan, @bbfanlady has a great perspective on players, plays and like me, she's a fan of high socks.

1. When did you become an Astros fan? 
1999. I listened to them on the radio with my grandfather back when they were the Colt 45s, but they were my big brother's "team" so in true sibling rivalry, I had to like another team, the Dodgers, because of Sandy Koufax and Jim Lefebvre. 
2. What part of the country do you hail from currently? 
Houston Suburbs
3. Who is your all-time favorite Astros player? 
Lance Berkman 
4. Crunchy or smooth peanut butter? 
Crunchy 
5. Who is your favorite current Astros player and why? 
Jarred Cosart. (Thank you Jeff Luhnow for calling him up in time for me to answer this question.) He has great stuff, love his intensity, and from what I hear from people who really know him, he is a good person off the field. 
6. If you could have any role within the Astros organization (on field or front office) what would it be? 
GM of course 
7. Best Astros memory?   
When Roger Clemens put on his cleats in extra innings of "the game" and told his Skipper, Garner, that he would give him everything he had left. It gave me goosebumps. I would not have been at all surprised if it had been Clemens instead of Burke that hit the game winning HR. 
8. Do you get CSN Houston? (this is just my informal and unscientific poll) 
Yes- broke down and got it on one TV because I was tired of watching on mlb.tv on my iPhone. Never figured out why I wasn't blacked out on iPhone, but was on iPad and computer. Guess they figured anybody desperate enough to watch on such a small screen, it was ok. But, kept my DirectTV and adding tv was basically free since I already had Internet/phone. I don't watch Comcast except for Astros games.
9. What year will the Astros once again be a contender? 
2015

Many thanks to @bbfanlady for sharing a little bit about her Astros fandom...and peanut butter preferences.