Friday Morning Hot Links

When does an apology fall short of satisfying the aggrieved party? I thought about this a lot today. There are a number of reasons why an apology is rejected or at least treated with skepticism:

1. The apologizing party was told to apologize. Someone told them they were to apologize - that it's something that they should do. They don't really want to do it, but did it, anyway.
2. The apologizing party is not actually sorry.
3. The apologizing party knows/thinks others were doing the same things for which they are currently apologizing, and thus the apology sounds insincere.

Regardless, the Astros held Apology Day yesterday in West Palm Beach.

Statements

Bregman:
I am really sorry about the choices that were made by my team, by the organization, and by me. I have learned from this and I hope to regain the trust of baseball fans. I would also like to thank the Astros fans for all of their support. We as a team are totally focused on moving forward to the 2020 season.

Springer:
The amount of remorse, regret that's very, very obvious to us in this room...There's no real way to express how much regret we have. How much remorse we have.

Reddick was asked if the World Series was worth breaking the rules:
I don't think so...It's something that we're gonna probably regret and feel bad for for the rest of our careers.

Carlos Correa had a lot to say, on Twitter and to the media. Correa entertained a question on Twitter from noted troll Incarcerated Bob (who is credibly accused of being behind the "Beltran's Niece" Twitter account) and said there was nothing going on in 2018 or 2019. Correa also confirmed Manfred's findings in the report, but rejected the idea that the Astros were wearing buzzers. Altuve:
It was a fake Twitter account that started everything. It makes me upset that a fake Twitter account had that much credibility. Like I said, I feel bad for 2017, but I can say something I didn't do was the buzzer thing. No one on this team wore a buzzer.

A.J. Hinch tried to clarify that he was not aware of any buzzers. What reality is this, even. Hinch:
There has been a significant reaction to my answer to the 'buzzer' question. To be clear, I have never seen any such device used in baseball. I am not aware of any such device existing or being utilized with the Astros, the players, or any other team.

Correa, On Beltran steamrolling everyone into buying into the trash can scheme:
[Beltran] was the best teammate we've ever had...We all had a say in everything...When the anonymous source is saying we felt intimidated, we were too young to say something, that's straight up bullshit.

Verlander:
It's been difficult, showing up in 2017. And once I spent some time there, understood what was happening. I didn't - I wish I had said more. Looking back, I can't go back. I can't reverse my decision. I wish I had said more, and I didn't, and for that I'm sorry.

McCullers:
I think that's something none of us can go back and change. I think the important thing we've all come together here. We met (Wednesday) and we stand behind Alex and Altuve and are remorseful for what happened for what happened that season and look forward to moving on.

Dusty Baker:
At the meeting [Wednesday] night the players showed tremendous remorse and sorrow and embarrassment for their families, the organization, the city of Houston and for baseball.

Jim Crane completely misread the situation:
Our opinion is this didn't impact the game. We had a good team. We won the World Series and we'll leave it at that.

This is, of course, completely stupid. The Astros had a good team, they won the World Series. It impacted the game. Click that link to see the logical gymnastics Crane does. 10.0 from all judges, including the East German one. More Crane, on whether he should be punished by Rob Manfred, who is an employee of Jim Crane and 29 of his closest billionaire friends:
Well, clearly, the report states that I didn't know about it. Had I known about it, certainly I would have done something about it. I did hire Jeff, and I think Jeff did a lot of great things for the organization over the years. You know, no, I don't think I should be held accountable. 

"Our opinion is that this didn't impact the game." - Jim Crane

"I didn't say it didn't impact the game." - Jim Crane 55 seconds later pic.twitter.com/MnpPeeTUPL

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) February 13, 2020

Billionaires never think they should be held accountable. Read more to see how Crane threw Hinch and Luhnow under the bus. Jim Crane wants to be the new White Knight who leads the Astros into the Garden of Nevermore or whatever dreamland Crane is the mayor of. Billionaire wants all of the credit and none of the blame.

Will Harris told Nationals reporters that he wishes he would have made better choices.

Reactions

*Ken Rosenthal:
The Astros screwed up their news conference on live television Thursday as only they can.

*The San Antonio Express-News' Mike Finger: The Astros apologized, but for what, exactly?
The Astros might have gone to unprecedented lengths to break the rules, putting careers and legacies in peril in the process, but they did not do this to affect the outcome of games. The players, who obviously would have won the World Series without any help, are profoundly sorry for taking part in the scheme, even though the whole thing was beyond their control. The owner, who was completely oblivious to what happened before, can absolutely guarantee everything will be above board from now on.

*A's pitcher Sean Manaea:
I saw a couple of interviews and they all said pretty much the same thing - they skated by everything, they swept everything under the rug. They didn't own up to anything and they're trying to move on which is like - what are you guys trying to move on from? You haven't even said what it is you did. They're just now saying they're sorry, but what about this entire offseason? It was like: deny, deny, deny. When the time comes, you have to say what you're trying to move on from. It's crazy.

*Rays pitcher Chris Archer, on his August 1, 2017 start, in which he allowed 6H/4ER, 5K:0BB, 2HR in a 6-4 win against Houston the day after Dallas Keuchel said the Trade Deadline was "Disappointing to say the least." Archer:
It's pretty messed up. The whole thing is messed up. It sucks when you dedicate your whole life to something, and somebody's out there doing some shady shit like that.

Mike Fiers was the opposing pitcher that game. He allowed 3ER in the first inning. Archer allowed four runs, all were driven in on homers from Beltran and Bregman and hits from...Beltran and Bregman. Archer:
You heard some rumors but I don't think anybody expected it to be to that extent, especially when you know these dudes on a personal level. You've talked to them. You've gone to dinner with them. You've even been on the same team with some of them - Team USA and stuff [Archer played with Bregman in 2017 for the World Baseball Classic]. FaceTimed with them throughout the season and offseason. Texted with them. Whatever. And then to find out to find out I was a part of them being successful. It was definitely disheartening. It's bad for the game. They set out the punishments, and it is what it is at this point. I guess it's time for everybody to move on.

*Clean-shaven pretty boy Gerrit Cole:
My feelings really haven't changed much. Nobody is getting a win out of this. It doesn't look very good. I guess I'm just fortunate to be able to be here and move past this and get to experience all the good things about coming to a new team and all that kind of stuff.

Hero, really. Enjoy Central Park and Serendipity and whatnot.

*Add Former Hitting Coach Dave Hudgens to the list of dudes who are really sorry.

*Evan Drellich: Blame is a tangled mess.

*SI: Breaking down the Astros' latest PR meltdown.

*Dave Roberts "believes in karma."

*LA stays LA:

KTLA made their thoughts on Jose Altuve abundantly clear https://t.co/K7g34qcMke

— SI Extra Mustard (@SI_ExtraMustard) February 13, 2020

Other Notes

*Pete Putila will retain his Assistant GM role. Tom Koch-Weser and Derek Vigoa will remain with the Astros...for now. James Click hedged a little:
I think any new GM coming in would want to take a full view of the baseball operations staff and figure out how we take the awesome people that we have here and maximize them and put them in the right position to succeed. It's something definitely on the front-burner for me.

*Chris Speier has been added to the staff as a Quality Control Coach.

Ed. Note:

I've flirted with actually typing this out for most of the offseason, but as Spring Training actually starts in earnest (for real! You can watch Forrest Whitley throw right here!) I want to get this out. There is a certain part of me that is defined by the Astros. I get mad when they lose a game they have no business losing, when they get shut down by a guy making his 2nd career start, when the bullpen blows a Quality Start, when they go 1x13 w/RISP, when they go 0-4 at home in the World Series. Obviously I've had an Astros blog for over 11 years. I've been on Twitter for almost 11 years and have not changed my banner photo once. The Astros are a part of me. Not anywhere close to all of me, but I do spend a lot of time thinking and writing about this particular organization because I was really homesick in Upstate New York in 2008.

Many of you know I'm a public high school history teacher. I also coach soccer. The 2016-17 school year was the absolute hardest year of my life. I taught US History and AP US History for the first time each, and I was in charge of my own team under a ridiculously demanding boss with whose personality I clashed on an atomic level. So I would get home from a road game and an almost-two-hour bus ride and have to then prepare for two different classes the next day.

I love - truly love - two sports teams: the Houston Astros, and Leeds United. I was at the game that sent Leeds to the Champions League quarterfinals WITHOUT Robbie Keane and Eirik Bakke and Rio Ferdinand and Olivier Dacourt! (Leeds United has been a train-wreck since 2003 - it was a real bad time when the Astros AND Leeds were both just complete disasters and affronts to their sport). This was how I was spending my leisure time. Anyhow, when, on June 3, 2017 - the final day of the hardest year I've ever encountered - the Astros beat the Rangers to go to 40-16, the 2017 Astros brought me joy. Later that Autumn, a team I actually loved actually did something. They won the World Series. Since then it has been Hans Gruber falling from Nakatomi: they traded for Osuna, Taubman did Taubman things, Fiers talked to Evan Drellich. It's all shadows now. To me, it's tainted. It doesn't need an asterisk, the asterisk is implied. Were other teams doing it? Maybe, probably, I don't know. I know a lot of people worked really hard to get that World Series and, as advanced as the Astros were with analytics, a freaking trash can, the guy the Astros let walk to the Mets, and the Other Guy From The Carlos Gomez Trade, brought them down.

No one will ever replace the feeling I had at 10:59pm on November 1, 2017. But I know now that it's not the same, that there is shame involved. And if the players don't feel it themselves, I sure do.

Throughout this offseason I have considered shutting Astros County Dot Com down. Getting Randos (and, to be honest, some friends I've known for a long time) in my mentions blasting me for having the gall to be happy for 25 guys doing cool things who happen to have "Houston" stitched across the front of their shirt is not fun. I simultaneously want the Astros to beat the hell out of everybody and also to not have done what they did. And what they did was to cheat their way to the postseason. I'll go to my grave wondering how Alex Bregman could hear a trash can getting hit with 42000 people yelling at the top of their lungs in the bottom of the 10th of Game 5. I'll also go to my grave wondering why a team with that much talent would risk it all. No one - including Mike Fiers - has turned in their Ring, so maybe that's why I'm going to keep this dumb blog going for the time being.

I was not immediately affected by Hurricane Harvey. My mom and my dad live on different sides of Houston. Neither of their houses flooded. I've met a lot of you in real life. I know a lot of you on Twitter. I'll go with the maxim (which I didn't come up with) that Facebook is for friends who are now strangers, and Twitter is for strangers who are now friends. The 2017 World Series saved a lot of you - it was a welcome respite when your world was literally floating away or rotting under floodwaters (which Yankees fans would like to have happen every single year). Now, I'm just sad. I'm beaten down by pretty much everything. The Apologies are hollow because it didn't need to come to this in the first place.

That said, I don't think the Astros were the only team dabbling in the "dark arts" of using technology MLB made available for an edge. Still, when you're the first one caught, it's not pleasant. And you can bet that if Even Drellich With Reporting From Ken Rosenthal (the Carlos Santana feat. Rob Thomas of our generation) tugs at this thread long enough, he/they could unravel the whole thing. I just don't know if they will, or if the Fury of Baseball can stay stoked long enough to care if another team did.

A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Slow news day. The Astros won the World Series.

*Jake Kaplan talks about what the signings of Joe Smith and Hector Rondon mean for the pitching staff and we finally learn that Brad Peacock will definitely have a job next year, though it's still up in the air if he'll start or relieve.

Current options for rotation (in no particular order):
1. Keuchel
2. Verlander
3. McCullers
4. Morton
5. McHugh
6. Peacock
7. Musgrove
8. Martes (hey, it could happen)

Bullpen:
(Peacock or McHugh or Musgrove)
Ken Giles
Will Harris
Chris Devenski
Joe Smith
Hector Rondon
Tony Sipp
James Hoyt
Anthony Gose (?)

In Kaplan's story, Luhnow discussed the importance of Spring Training for Tony Sipp. Sipp's 2017 was overall a disaster (5.79 ERA, -0.4 bWAR) but when he returned from injury in September he threw 5.1IP, 8H/1ER, 6K:2BB. Silver linings and whatnot.

*Marc Topkin says that the Astros are one of nine teams interested in Chris Archer.

*ICYMI: Actually, Ken Giles is good.

*Marc Carig took a flamethrower to Mets ownership.

*The secret WW2 history hidden in London's fences.

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

The first day of the Winter Meetings is in the books. Let's see what did and didn't happen:

*The Astros are looking to add two arms to the bullpen. Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard and Francisco Liriano account for 89.1IP in 2017 - of course the majority of which were Gregerson's IPs. Luhnow:
At this point, it's a lot of feeling each other out and trying to see where the market is going on some of the players we're interested in. I think it will be a productive three days. Even if we don't get a deal done while we're here, we're certainly going to put ourselves in a spot where we'll have an opportunity to potentially (do so) after. I'm optimistic we're going to do something to improve the club while we're here or shortly thereafter.

We find in McTaggart's link that the Astros did offer a contract to Mike Minor, but the Rangers gave him the opportunity to start.

*With Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton's contracts set to expire following the 2018 season, the Astros could look into adding a starter. Here's a non-quote from Luhnow:
I think the reality is if we're going to improve our rotation, it's going to have to be somebody that's better than what we have, and we've got a pretty good rotation penciled out for next year. So we're not going to be looking at fourth and fifth starters. We're probably looking at something north of that. There's not a big population (of available starters who fit that criteria), but we'll probably touch base with maybe not all of them but some of them.

More Luhnow:
Typically the ones that we like require much more significant commitments and we're not sure that's the best path for us to take right now.

*Ken Rosenthal writes in the (subscription-only) Athletic that the Astros have shown interest in Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, which would be, uh, interesting.

*Jon Heyman used pretty much all 280 of his characters and said that the Astros never came very close but did try on Giancarlo Stanton.

*Jerry Crasnick notes that Marwin Gonzalez - a free agent following 2018 - has also hired Scott Boras as his agent. Stros looking to get PAID.

*An anonymous Astros player told Sports Illustrated how they knew Yu Darvish was going to his slider before he threw it:
The players said it worked like this: Darvish holds the ball at his side when he gets the sign from the catcher. Whether he re-grips or not as he brings the ball into his glove was the tip-off whether he was going to throw a slider/cutter or a fastball.

*Did the acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton change the Rays' mindset? Maybe Chris Archer is available (for a steep price).

*The Astros signed catcher Tim Federowicz and reliever Matt Ramsey to minor-league deals with an invitation to Spring Training.

Federowicz, a 30-year old catcher, was the Red Sox' 7th Round pick in the 2008 draft. In 403 games at Triple-A, Federowicz has a .304/.374/.503 slash line. Federowicz was part of the three-team trade at the 2011 deadline that saw him get sent to the Dodgers while the Mariners sent former Astros great Erik Bedard and Astros World Series Hero Josh Fields to the Red Sox. Then in December 2014 he was part of the trade that sent Matt Kemp to the Dodgers and Yasmani Grandal to the Padres.

Matt Ramsey, a 5'11 205lb, 28-year old RHP, posted a 3.65 ERA/1.35 WHIP for Double-A Biloxi in 2017 with 58K in 44.1IP. In his five-year minor-league career Ramsey has 239 strikeouts in 198IP. He did hit Triple-A briefly in Colorado Springs (5.1IP), but that's been it so far.

*Kate Upton had a whole bunch of details I don't really understand for Vogue about The Wedding. Except cornhole, I know that. And the Uplander Games sounds legit.

*Red Sox GM(?) Dave Dombrowski:
If we can get better, we're going to do that. But it's really not based on the Stanton move. We're not changing based upon that. It was already our plan to get better. We not only have to beat the Yankees, we have to beat the Astros, world champs, because our goal is to not only win our division but to be the world champs.

Pretty much never going to get old seeing "Astros, world champs" in a row.

*A RUSH OF BLOOD TO THE HEAD: Rangers sign Chris Martin.

Mike, I don’t know what the future holds, but I can promise one thing. I have given everything I can to the city each and every start. I ❤️ Houston. https://t.co/4A8W7ta48r

— Dallas Keuchel (@kidkeuchy) December 12, 2017

Sunday Morning Hot Links

*Gosh, where have we seen a ball up the middle bounce of Tony Sipp's glove and lead to multiple runs instead of a routine double play before? Astros lose to the Twins for the 1st time this season, 4-2.

*Joe Musgrove, by inning:
1st: 1H/1ER (Dozier solo home run), 1K:0BB
2nd: 1H/0ER, 0K:0BB
3rd: 0H/0ER, 1K:0BB
4th: 2H/0ER, 2K:0BB
5th: 2H/1ER, 1K:1BB
6th: 2H, 1BB

*The Astros are 6-9 (not nice) in Musgrove's 15 starts this season. Musgrove's two starts since coming back from Fresno: 10.2IP, 13H/8ER, 11K:2BB.

*The Astros and Angels were the only two AL West teams to lose last night, so the division lead stands at 15.5 games over the Rangers with 71 games left.

*Marwin kept it real when discussing losing to Ervin Santana:
The pitcher is trying to get us out. We're not facing a pitching machine, you know. He did good today. He threw a good game. And he's one of the best pitchers in the league. It was just one of those games. We're not going to score ten runs every game. 

*The Astros loaded the bases in three separate innings, were 1x9 w/RISP, and left 11 on base for the 2nd straight game. Hinch:
When things don't go your way, there are a lot of what-ifs, a lot of could-haves, there's a lot of nonsense. You have to try to win the at-bats, and we did, just came up short. 

*Jose Altuve hit his 14th home run of the season. In 2016 Altuve hit a career-high 24 home runs in 717 plate appearances, averaging a home run every 29.875 plate appearances. He has 14 home runs in 390 plate appearances this season, one every 27.857 PAs.

*Yuli Gurriel was 2x4 with an RBI double. In his first seven games of the season, Gurriel hit .125/.125/.167. Since then he's hitting .314/.341/.520.

*If you missed it yesterday, there is a raffle to benefit George Springer's SAY Foundation, in which the winner receives a sweet-ass working replica of Minute Maid Park.

*Reymin Guduan was called up to replace Will Harris as he rests his shoulder. Hinch, on why Guduan got the call:
They've got a lot of switch-hitters on [the Twins] and a lot of left-handed hitters on the Mariners. Adding him, we wanted to have multiple left-handed options out of the bullpen. 

*Dallas Keuchel will make a rehab start tomorrow (Monday) in Corpus. Keuchel:
I'm really anxious. That's the most fun part, the competition...So as long as I feel good and continue to progress, I'm hoping to be out there soon. It's going to be a little bit of a process just based on how I respond to Monday...I feel like a normal person for the first time in a while. That feels really good.

*The Astros are doing background work on a possible trade for the Giants' Jeff Samadzija. The Shark is 4-10 on a terrible Giants team, but has a league-leading 1.1 BB/9 and a league-leading 9.07 K:BB ratio. If traded, though, the Astros would be on the hook for the rest of his $19.8m salary for 2017 and $59.4m through the 2020 season (unless the Giants paid down some of his salary).

*Peter Gammons writes that, if you want Marcus Stroman or Gerrit Cole, it's going to cost someone on the 25-Man roster.

*Here's a cool story about Torii Hunter and an 8-year old George Springer.

*Buster Olney writes that the Braves are open to moving Julio Teheran and the A's hope Sonny Gray absolutely kills starts to drive up his value.

*Chris Archer talked a lot with Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers over the All-Star Break, writes Marc Topkin. Archer, on the Astros' All-Star contingent:
You can tell they're like brothers. It really stands out. 

Also Topkin, on Colby Rasmus:
As a colleague who covered him earlier in his career told me: Think of the most country player you've ever covered, then go about six more miles into the woods. 

*Jenny Dial Creech: It's okay to be excited.

*Last night Forrest Whitley threw 5.2IP, 3H/0ER, 10K:1BB in a 6-2 win over Frederick. In three starts for Buies Creek, Whitley has thrown 15.2IP, 8H/1ER, 24K:2BB.

*Myles Straw is hitting .318/.423/.408 for Buies Creek with 53K:59BB. The .318 AVG is tied for 2nd in the Carolina League, while the .423 OBP leads the league by 32 points. His .831 OPS is 8th in the league.

*Yordan Alvarez was a late scratch from last night's BCA game, fueling #HugWatch speculation, but he was just a little dinged up.

*Mike Foltynewicz is starting to thrive in Atlanta.

*

Korean baseball is so great pic.twitter.com/3sjWhup8iO

— Baseball Fam (@ShtBallPlayrsDo) July 15, 2017

Checking in on pitchers connected to the Astros in trade rumors

I feel like now is an appropriate time to check in on potential trade targets to improve the Astros rotation. Oh look the Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a Sonny Gray trade. Lets check in on him and others the Astros are linked to.

Sonny Gray

The 4.44 ERA in 52.2 IP is not ideal. Expect those numbers to come down. His strikeout percentage is up this year and his walk percentage is around his career numbers. The thing that seems to be getting him this year is his homerun to fly ball ratio. His FIP and xFIP numbers are good and below his ERA at 3.33 and 3.27 respectively. I wouldn't expect the Athletics to sell low on Sonny Gray. He's controlled through the 2020 season. 

Gerrit Cole

The 4.54 ERA in 83.1 IP is ugly. It's made even worse by the fact that his FIP (4.58) and xFIP (4.02) don't give much hope of that dropping. Like Gray he's giving up the long ball more than usual this year. His strikeout rate is also down. Which is probably the reason his advanced numbers are betraying him. His career numbers indicate his ERA should be in the low-to-mid three range. This might just be a down year for Cole. He's also controllable through the 2020 season.

José Quintana

Quite possibly the most talked about name in Astros pitching trade rumors. He is off to an even worse start than either Gray or Cole. His ERA is 5.07 in 81.2 IP. His FIP (4.36) and xFIP (4.40) are lower. He's giving up more home runs this year. His strikeout rate is up, but his walk rate is also up this year. He's a free agent after the 2019 season. 

Chris Archer

Finally! Someone with an ERA (3.80) below four in 92.1 IP. FIP and xFIP both like Archer to get better this year. His strikeouts are up and his home run rate is down. Archer will be expensive. They turned down an offer of Kyle Tucker, Francis Martes, David Paulino, and two other prospects in January. He's controlled through the 2020 season. 

Who are the other pitchers you're interested in that we haven't heard rumors on yet?

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*Juan Centeno - playing in his first game as an Astro - and Yulieski Gurriel both hit solo homers and Lance McCullers held the Tigers to 1H/0ER, 5K:2BB in 6IP (now 22 scoreless IPs and counting for McCullers) for a 6-2 Astros win. Jake Marisnick had three hits, and the Astros are 31-15 with a 7-game lead.

*Hinch, on Centeno, who went 2x3 with an *intentional* walk and the Title Belt:
Given that's his first game this season with us, I'm glad he was in Spring Training with us to be very familiar with our guys. Fun night. He should be very proud of his effort, and our team responded well to him. 

Centeno, with maybe the quote of the year:
I don't hit that many homers, so that was an experience. I never saw the ball. I just put my head down and kept running.

*The Astros are 2-0 against Detroit despite going 1x20 w/RISP in two games.

*Carlos Correa was sick yesterday.

*Tom Verducci: The curveball is taking over baseball (featuring Lance McCullers)

*The Baseball Assistance Team gave Bob Watson its lifetime achievement award. And if you're looking to kill a little time you can read about Watson scoring the one millionth run in Major League Baseball.

*Brian McCann and Dallas Keuchel are both looking at returning on Saturday.

*Alex Bregman talked to the Detroit Free Press about hanging out with Ian Kinsler during the WBC.

*The Nationals and Red Sox have been scouting Jose Quintana.

*Jeff Sullivan and the meaning of a team's 50-game record.

*Here's a big ol' scouting report on Japanese superstar Shohei Otani.

*Check out Chris Archer and his mindfulness.

Hall of Fame Day Hot Links

IT'S HALL OF FAME DAY. Today at 5pm Central, Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson will announce the results on MLB Network.

*With almost 55% of the BBWAA's ballots known, Bagwell is sitting at 88.7%.

*Nathaniel Rakich's projections have Bagwell finishing at 84.6%, joining Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman in the Class of 2017.

*Jeff Bagwell has waited seven long years for this day (and hopefully no more).

*Bagwell says he won't relax until he gets that heads-up phone call:
I'm not a slam dunk like [Griffey] was. You never know what can happen. Unfortunately, I had to watch Craig not get in for a couple of years, and I was shocked by that. You just never know in that situation what people are going to vote for. 

*Bob Nightengale reports that the Astros have maintained interest in Jose Quintana, Chris Archer AND Sonny Gray. Peter Gammons immediately took a New England Dump on the Gray-to-Houston rumor.

*Jose Altuve, Yulieski Gurriel, and A.J. Reed played games with kids at the Shriners Hospital in Galveston yesterday.

*Jose Altuve wrote a letter to himself yesterday. I ran through a brick wall.

*Former Astros prospect Danry Vasquez did not appear in court yesterday stemming from his domestic violence episode this summer because his visa expired.

*The Crawfish Boxes jumped on this, and we're a few days late, but Tri-City pitcher Makay Nelson (20th Round pick, 2015) was suspended 50 games for an amphetamine.

*The Fresno Grizzlies have claimed the taco emoji.

*Michael Kopech, acquired by the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade, apparently hit 110mph on the radar gun.

*Edinson Volquez, whose father passed away hours before he pitched in Game 1 of the World Series, is mourning the death of his brother, who was stabbed in the Dominican Republic.

Monday Morning Hot Links

All kind of quiet on the Astros front following the Winter Meetings, but let's see what's out there:

*ESPN's David Schoenfield lays out the case for why Jose Quintana is attractive to other teams (an exercise I undertook Saturday night) and says that Francis Martes plus two of Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, and A.J. Reed - plus another lower-level prospect - would probably get a deal done.

*The Astros are one of nine storylines Ken Rosenthal is watching over the rest of the offseason, particularly in how they fill out their rotation.

*Marc Topkin writes that the Rays are seemingly asking more for Chris Archer than the the White Sox got for Chris Sale.

*Josh Reddick told his hometown newspaper about how excited he is to play in Houston:
It's a good young team that just missed the playoffs this year. It's something where I hope I can come in and get them over that edge. I'm really pumped to see where I'm going to hit in that lineup...They play the game the right way, and it's something I haven't seen in a long time from a lineup one through nine. 

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*Boston got Chris Sale, which means the Astros didn't get Chris Sale (and also means the Ramgers didn't get Chris Sale, either). The cost was Yoan Moncada (maybe the best prospect in baseball) and Michael Kopech - a flame-throwing pitcher who apparently hit 105mph on the radar gun - plus two more prospects. The Chron's Jake Kaplan:
Market dynamics are such that the Astros probably wouldn't be able to acquire a pitcher the caliber of...Chris Archer or...Jose Quintana without parting with Alex Bregman as a centerpiece to the deal. That is a price they are not willing to meet. 

Luhnow doesn't feel the urgency of adding a starting pitcher this week at the Winter Meetings:
I don't feel like we have to do anything this week necessarily, and it could be that if we have any moves left, it's going to happen after the winter meetings...but we're certainly active in finding out what's available and how much it would cost us. 

Lots of good quotes from Luhnow on how he sees the rotation shaping up, so be sure to click and give that one a full read.

*As with free agency deals, the Sale trade provides a reference point for the Rays in negotiations for Chris Archer. Rays GM Erik Neander, of Chris Archer:
You're talking about a top-end talent with three years of control. The price to get those guys is not cheap. 

*Excellent article from The Ringer's Michael Baumann: The Astros aren't trying to be the Cubs anymore.

*A.J. Hinch is pretty excited about filling out his lineup card next season:
It's been exciting...we were the most active team with the most success at getting to the finish line. We've got to be one of the [deepest] teams, position-player-wise, in our league. 

*McTaggart thinks that the Astros are more keyed-in on Jake Odorizzi, Sonny Gray, and Drew Pomeranz than they are Chris Archer.

*The additions of Reddick and Beltran likely push Yuli Gurriel to 1B, and A.J. Hinch is just fine with that:
We threw him in the middle of the pennant race at first base in [South Ardmore] and he was a little raw because of the responsibilities that come with the position. But he can play infield. He has good footwork. He can handle the glove...him getting a full Spring Training of work at first base will do wonders for him. 

*The Astros are going to prepare Chris Devenski as a starter going into Spring Training before determining if he's in the rotation or the bullpen. Luhnow:
He's going to be a multi-inning pitcher one way or another. Whether it's two or five or seven (innings), that remains to be seen. 

*Michael Feliz, however, will likely stay in the bullpen until he can develop his changeup.

*The Astros signed LHP C.J. Riefenhauser to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. Riefenhauser's MLB numbers don't exactly blow up your skirt, but the 26-year old is dealing with a small sample size there - he only allowed runs in four of his 17 appearances in 2015, and they were all 2-3ER allowed. Still, you see the Astros making yet another move to shore up their lefty reliever role. His 2.62 ERA/1.10 WHIP in Triple-A is worthy of at least a look.

*Carlos Gomez re-signed with the Rangers on a 1yr/$11.5m deal for 2017.

*The fun part will be the potential for a rematch, 19 times over, between Astros Great Brian McCann and Noted Asshole Carlos Gomez. From September 2013:


*With 19 ballots known so far, Bagwell is running at 86% in the BBWAA.

Beltran back: Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*The decision to sign with Houston was an easy one for Carlos Beltran, who said the Astros were the most aggressive in courting him:
It wasn't difficult for me to make the decision to come here. I have so many good memories of the three months that I spent in Houston. And when I look at the team, for me, what really does it is the team. The opportunity of winning, the opportunity of hopefully you get to the playoffs and win a championship, that's what it's all about. When I look at the lineup, the whole team, I really like our chances. 

Brian McTaggart, who notes that Beltran and A.J. Hinch were teammates in Kansas City in 2001-2002, says Beltran will play LF at least twice a week and the rest of the time at DH. Luhnow:
We felt he'd be a great fit here, his offense would balance out our lineup and outfield and would be a positive for us. 

*Tony Sipp was bad, real bad, in 2016 - the first year of a 3yr/$18m deal that saw his WHIP jump from 1.03 to 1.61 from 2015 to 2016. And since the Astros only have Reymin Guduan and Kevin Chapman available as other left-handed bullpen options, they claimed lefty reliever Ashur Tolliver off waivers from Anaheim yesterday.

Tolliver, a 5th Round pick in 2009, has only thrown 4.2IP in the majors. But he has recorded 278 strikeouts in 284IP in the minors. He throws about 94mph with a splitter and - according to the Chron report - has been developing a breaking ball. He has two minor-league options left so, while he's on the 40-Man roster, he could go to Fresno to work on that breaking pitch.

*Jayson Stark reports that the Astros are dangling Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers in an effort to create roster and payroll flexibility.

*The Astros are not in on free agent Ivan Nova, Buster Olney tweets, as his price is too high.

*Brian McTaggart says that Evan Gattis is not being shopped.

*Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Carlos Beltran will all play in the World Baseball Classic this Spring. Nori Aoki is expected to play for Japan while Alex Bregman (Israel) and Marwin (Venezuela) are on their country's respective provisional rosters. George Springer could play for the United States or make Puerto Rico the preferred international choice of the Houston Astros.

*Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times says that the Rays are asking for "five or six players" in return for Chris Archer, and is doubtful he gets traded this offseason. The Pirates are making a run at Jake Odorizzi.

*Would you like Sonny Gray in Houston? The Braves made a run at him and, while Oakland did not ask for Dansby Swanson, their asking price was too high for Atlanta.

*Luis Valbuena wants a multi-year deal and his initial asking price scared off the Yankees.

*The White Sox said the Nationals were "very aggressive" in their push to land Chris Sale.

*Bryce Harper wants 10yrs/$400m and will likely single-handedly hamstring a franchise.

*Minor League Baseball has established a Political Action Committee to fight a lawsuit over higher pay. This is fun.

*Bud Selig wishes he could have done more about steroids in baseball, but placed much of the blame on the MLBPA.

Monday Morning Hot Links

*Ken Rosenthal says the Astros chose Beltran over Edwin Encarnacion in part because of the positional flexibility he provides, allowing Yuli Gurriel to play 1B. The Astros are "paying close attention to" the Rays' starting pitchers. However, Rosenthal tweeted that if Encarnacion's price were to drop, the Astros could get back in and play Gurriel at LF, Edwin at 1B, and Beltran at DH.

This is me talking (a noted idiot), but I don't see how the Astros sign Encarnacion. There aren't enough positions now. This may be a good reason for why they would do it. But with the Yankees signing Matt Holliday yesterday, the Astros getting Beltran, Encarnacion's market seems to be drying up. I would imagine that the Rangers would try to take advantage of his falling price tag (I don't think Edwin gets that 5yr/$125m deal, after all.)

*Jeff Sullivan referred to the Astros as "the league's best lineup." The Astros. Our collective favorite team. What a time to be alive. Peep these 2017 Projected Standings from FanGraphs, and that's before the Astros potentially add a front-line starter.

*Tommy Stokke of FanRag Sports says that, while the Astros' lineup isn't perfect, they've improved in the "Veteran Leadership" category.

*From Saturday: Jon Heyman reports the Astros are positioning themselves to make a play for Chris Archer.

*Reid Ryan told MLB Network Radio that the Astros are missing "an automatic W" at the top of the rotation.

*McTaggart: All that's missing is a starting pitcher

*Brian T. Smith: Beltran adds to a stacked 25-Man roster.

*With 19 ballots in, Jeff Bagwell is running at 84%, appearing on 16 of 19 known ballots. To that end, David Maril says Bagwell "comes up a little short" as a hitter regardless of steroids talk. Bruce Jenkins didn't even attempt an explanation as to why Bagwell didn't get his checkmark. Tony Massarotti has already been addressed.

*The Nationals are going after both Chris Sale and Andrew McCutchen.

*John Schuerholtz and Bud Selig are going into the Hall of Fame.

*The Runner took a look at pitching prospect Rogelio Armenteros.

*The Padres' rotation will feature Paul Clemens and Jarred Cosart and might be "historically poor."

*Players' meal money on the road is going from $105/day to $30/day, but teams will provide pre- and post-game meal options in the clubhouse.

*Michael Lewis' new book (out tomorrow) is about the guys who shaped the paradigm of Moneyball.

Singleton out, Sunday Links

Good morning, reader. I was at a conference for the last three days with a broken phone and spotty wifi which, as I slowly found out, was the worst possible three days to be without a phone or solid wifi. Thanks to the Masked Marvel from coming out of semi-retirement to write up the McCann/Reddick deals.

*Later today we'll take a look at the pitchers the Astros gave up for Brian McCann.

*The Astros placed Jon Singleton on outright waivers, clearing some room on the 40-Man Roster. If you remember Singleton signed that 5yr/$10m contract before he made it to the Majors in a process that Luhnow was hoping would mean the Astros got a middle-of-the-order slugger at $2m/year. It was low-risk/high-reward. The Astros still owe Singleton $4m over the next two seasons with a $500,000 buyout in 2019.

Singleton's career in Houston obviously did not pan out how either intended. Though he hit a homer in his first MLB game, Singleton finished his rookie season with a .168/.285/.335 slash line. He struck out 134 times in 362 PAs. That was essentially his shot. Singleton only played 19 games in Houston 2015 (.191/.328/.298) and did not see any action in 2016 despite the Astros' notable struggles at 1B, even in September.

And so the Hunter Pence trade era comes to an end. Jarred Cosart was traded to Miami in 2014 in the Marisnick/Moran deal after going 10-8 in parts of two seasons with the Astros. Cosart is now in the Padres' organization. Domingo Santana was traded to Milwaukee in the Gomez/Fiers deal and is coming off a .256/.345/.447 season for the Brewers in 77 games. Josh Zeid was placed on waivers in November 2014 and has spent time in the Angels and Mets organizations. And that's that. Maybe prospects aren't the greatest thing in the world.

*Brian McCann's favorite memory came against the Astros when he hit a homer off Roger Clemens in Game 2 of the 2005 NLDS in his first career postseason AB. John Smoltz says McCann will bring that Leadership intangible to the Astros. Smoltz:
I just think he's going to be relieved to know that he's going to be the guy and it's going to be a team that he can have his fingerprints on a little more. 

*Ken Rosenthal writes that the Astros' acquisitions of Brian McCann and Josh Reddick does not necessarily mean that they're out on the pursuit of Carlos Beltran, or perhaps even Chris Sale (who is seemingly available) or Chris Archer. The likeliest alignment, it seems, is Springer in CF, Reddick in RF, and a Marisnick/Aoki platoon in LF. The addition of Beltran would take ABs away from the platoon situation.

*OR the Astros could simply not offer a contract for 2017 for Nori Aoki.

*Brian McTaggart says the Astros may not want to break up their core by trading Bregman for someone like Archer or Sale.

*Brian T. Smith has a column about the momentous day the Astros decided to go all in. Smith:
Thanks to one of the best young cores in the game...the Astros don't "have" to win the whole thing in 2017. But they must stop finishing in second (or third) place. 

Luhnow:
We need to do the best job possible to give our players and our fans a chance to win a championship, and that's what we've been doing. We've been pursuing that aggressively, and I think our fans are going to see the results of that starting this year on the field. 

*Luhnow told Fanrag's John Perrotto:
We feel like we're going to be in contention every year for the foreseeable future. The reality is that every season is going to turn out differently than you expect.

*The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo says the Astros are possible destinations for Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, or Evan Longoria.

*Baseball America released their Top 10 Astros prospects list. Click the link for the write-up, here's the list:
1. Francis Martes
2. Kyle Tucker
3. David Paulino
4. Franklin Perez
5. A.J. Reed
6. Forrest Whitley
7. Teoscar Hernandez
8. Yulieski Gurriel (remember he still qualifies as a rookie, missing the cut-off by one AB)
9. Derek Fisher
10. Garrett Stubbs

*Check out Aubrey Huff - AUBREY HUFF! - throwing shade at Josh Reddick:

Please explain 2 me how someone can receive a 4 year 52 mill contract who hit 281-10-37! Guess U don't have to be good to get paid anymore

— AUBREY HUFF (@aubrey_huff) November 18, 2016

2016 Astros Trade Deadline: Targets - Round 1

I recently wrote about the Astros team needs for this upcoming trade deadline. The conclusion is that the Astros need to improve the offense and could use another starter to slot into game one or two of a playoff series. The offense could improve with a call up of Yulieski Gurriel and Alex Bregman. The pitching could also improve with a call up of Joe Musgrove or a move to the rotation for Feliz. The concern with these moves is a lack of experience. These moves could be made with little return.

With that in mind lets explore the players with a more solid track record that the team could target in a trade. Lets start by looking at players on the wish list of Astros fans.

@TimothyDeBlock Miller because I want him to have to play here for the less $ he took to go to NY, and Archer because he's my favorite.

— Dustin DeBerry (@dkdeberry) July 20, 2016

Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman

I will be using ERA+ throughout this article.

What Dustin is referring to is the Astros going after Andrew Miller hard in the free agent market prior to the 2015 season. They offered him four years and $40 million. He decided to sign with the New York Yankees for four years and $36 million, cause Yankees. It appears the tables have turned and it's the Astros looking to improve their ballclub for a playoff run. While the Yankees are looking to sell.

This season Andrew Miller has 329 ERA+. For reference, Will Harris has a 261 ERA+. Miller has been really good for the Yankees this year. The reason why he only has seven saves is because the Yankees also have Aroldis Chapman saving games. He and his 194 ERA+ may also be available. Both guys are lefties. Which makes them an even better fit for the bullpen. Miller is a free agent after the 2018 season. Chapman is a free agent after the 2016 season.

Price: I would expect something similar to the Ken Giles trade. The Astros traded Mark Appel, Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Brett Oberholtzer, and Vincent Velasquez to the Philadelphia Phillies for Giles.

Chris Archer

I've had a man crush on Chris Archer since the playoffs last year. He was an absolute joy to listen to while contribution to a playoff game broadcast last year.

On the field he hasn't been as good this year. He has an 88 ERA+ this year. Which is well below his career 108 ERA+. He's still striking out 10+ batters per nine innings. As some of his numbers normalize that ERA+ should rise. Archer is under contract for about $20 million through 2019. He has two team options for 2020 and 2021 at $9 million and $11 million respectively.

Price: He'll be expensive. Probably more so than a Miller or Chapman. Still I would happily give up Alex Bregman to add Archer to the rotation. And I love me some Alex Bregman. 

@TimothyDeBlock Trevor Bauer

— alwaysagoodwin (@alwaysagoodwin) July 20, 2016

Tyler Bauer

This is an interesting one. I'm not sure Bauer is available with the Indians leading their division. I love a good out of left field trade idea. Lets dive in.

Bauer, if he is available, has a 140 ERA+ and doesn't become a free agent until 2021. He's been in and out of the rotation and there are some character issue rumors surrounding him. If he has finally figured it out, Bauer could be the type of guy that fits into the Astros top of the rotation now and in the future.

Price: The lack of a strong track record means the cost will be lower than the other pitchers mentioned above. He will still require a strong offer for the Indians to even think about trading him. Maybe the Astros can offer some of the big league ready talent waiting for an opportunity in AAA.

@TimothyDeBlock If we're going to live a trade deadline fantasy then why not have Miller bring a friend in Beltran to DH.

— Sean Feist (@native_astro) July 20, 2016

Carlos Beltran

Pass.



Leave your player suggestions in the comment section.

Monday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros beat the Mariners 8-1 on the back of Carlos Gomez's grand slam yesterday. The Rangers beat the Cubs.  The Angels beat the White Sox, and the Blue Jays beat the A's. The Ramgers division lead remains at 4.5, while the Astros are back to four up on the Mariners. The Astros are two behind the Red Sox for WC1 and one behind the Blue Jays for WC2.

FanGraphs has the Astros at 40.3% to win the division (Oak Cliff is at 54.6%) and 63.3% to make the playoffs.

*Lima Time Time: Episode 18 with special guest Nick Mundy is up now.

*Collin McHugh Houdini'd his way through six scoreless innings.

*Jose Altuve recorded his 5th 4-hit game of the season, and he got 36 votes from 74 players asked who could break Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak, which ended 75 years ago yesterday.

*Hinch said he never really felt comfortable during yesterday's 8-1 win.

*Jon Heyman hasn't heard a target date for Alex Bregman's call-up, but it isn't going to be this series at Oakland. Austin is gearing up for four games with Fresno starting in Round Rock tonight.

*Yulieski Gurriel will be a free agent at the end of his essentially 4 1/2-year contract.

*2016 2nd Round pick Ronnie Dawson went 2x2 with 2HR/5RBI and two walks yesterday.

*Six hours and 31 minutes after first pitch the Greeneville Astros walked it off against Bluefield in the bottom of the 20th inning.

*The Cardinals' Chris Correa may be looking at three years in prison. Sentencing is today at 1:30pm.

*Barring an "overwhleming" offer, Chris Archer is not available.

*The new CBA negotiations could include a return to the 154-game season.

Friday Morning Hot Links

The Astros got scuffed last night thanks to Chris Archer - the Masked Marvel's recap is great - but at least the Rangers also got one-hit, and the Angels lost to the White Sox. The Astros have a 2.5 game lead on the Angels and a four-game lead on the Rangers. There are 40 games left.

Some notes on Chris Archer's performance:

*It was the first CG/1H/0ER performance against the Astros since Edinson Volquez and the Padres beat the Astros 1-0 on July 19, 2012.

*Archer needed just 98 pitches to get through the game, giving him the Maddux. What's the Maddux?  A complete game shutout throwing 99 or fewer pitches. This was the 16th Maddux against the Astros in team history, the last one coming on September 17, 2014 by Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco, who allowed 2H/0ER, 12K:1BB, and needed 98 pitches to go the distance.

*Archer's gem is also only the 16th game in ML history that a pitcher has thrown a Maddux with double-digit strikeouts (Source).

*Archer's 95 Game Score is the highest by an opposing pitcher this season, and the highest since Yu Darvish's 96 on April 2, 2013 when Darvish got Marwin'd.

*The Astros had 10+ strikeouts in a game for the 46th time this season.

*Carlos Gomez was 0x3 and saw a total of six pitches. Valbuena went 0x3 with 2 strikeouts in eight total pitches.

*Hinch, on Archer:
He was in complete control. He's the real deal. He's got every pitch and he had it tonight. I don't know if that was his best, because I'm not around him on a day-to-day basis, but it's the best we've seen and certainly he was in total command...In hindsight looking back, we could have just taken pitches and saw what happened, but pitch recognition is pretty hard when a guy is throwing 90-mph sliders. It's hard to fault the hitters. They're battling, they're trying.

*Archer took a selfie with Hinch's daughters before the All-Star Game in Cincinnati:
I'd like to have them in the stands or at least watching every game I throw from here on out, because the outcome's good when they're watching.

*George Springer has been swinging a fungo in the cage, but still likely won't take standard BP before next week's road trip.
There really isn't any medical reason to why I can't progress. It's all about how I feel. (The wrist) has been immobilized for six weeks, so I have to get my hand in shape and my wrist in shape.

*Thanks to a 13-inning game two nights ago and Josh Fields nearing his career-high in innings, Fields was optioned to Corpus (because Fresno is 6,000 miles away) yesterday, clearing room for Vince Velasquez's return. Fields is just 13.2IP away from a career-high of 54.2IP, and given the need for a fresh arm, he'll take some time off. Players optioned to the minors have to stay down for 10 days  (barring an injury to someone else), which will put him back in Houston just in time for the September 1 call-up day.

*Non-Astros Read of the Day: Follow the White Ball: The torments of Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker's greatest player

Market Value and George Springer

Yesterday the Tampa Bay Rays, bastions of Rebuilding The Right Way (not the Chicken-Sh*t Way That The Astros Are, apparently), signed 25-year old Chris Archer to a 6yr/$25.5m with two club options that could push the contract to 8yrs/$43.75m. Last year, Chris Archer was 9-7 with a 3.22 ERA/1.13 WHIP (23 starts - 128.2IP) and finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. His ERA+ was 118.

Marc Topkin said that the guaranteed money is "believed to be the most money guaranteed to a player - who was not an international free agent - with less than one year of service time." Craig Calcaterra wrote, "Assuming Archer even comes close to his potential and stays reasonably healthy this will be a bargain for the Rays."

A couple of days ago the Cleveland Indians signed 26-year old catcher Yan Gomes to a 6yr/$23m contract. In 2013 Gomes played in a career-high 88 games (322 PAs) with a .294/.345/.481 slash line. His OPS+ was 133.

Fox Sports' Joe Reedy wrote, "While the extension means the Tribe won't have to deal with Gomes in arbitration and takes out a couple years of free agency for Gomes, it's a win-win for both sides."

Now let's look back to George Springer. We all believe he's going to be a superstar. But at the risk of sounding like a Front Office homer (need somebody, Luhnow? Call me...), if Archer received the most guaranteed money to a player with less than a year of service time and the Rays and Indians are lauded for their contract prowess, why are the Astros getting slammed by Ken Rosenthal for offering Springer - who has spent a month at Triple-A - $23m over seven years?

This point has been beaten into the ground by plenty of Astros bloggers, but if Springer takes the deal, everyone is happy and the Astros are geniuses. With the Archer and Gomes deals, it's pretty clear the Astros were fair in their offer.