Monday, October 5, 2009

Prediction Rundown

It's time to provide some online accountability (which is lacking nowadays) and think back to all the predictions that were made about this Astros team.

Spot-On
September 3: Rosenthal predicts Cooper gets fired.
June 9: Keith Law says the Astros will take Jiovanni Mier in the 1st round
April 5: Bruce Jenkins, Ken Rosenthal, Will Leitch, Ken Davidoff, Scott Miller, Danny Knobler, Eric Mack, Adriane Rosen, Baseball Prospectus, Hilton SportsBook, Sporting News, Bucs Dugout, and Blast Magazine all pick the Astros to finish 5th.
April 5: Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, Peter Pascarelli, Chris Singleton all pick the Cardinals to win the NL Central
April 3: Baseball Prospectus says the Astros will post an offensive line of .261/.321/.403 (actual: .260/.319/.400 - holy crap)
March 19: Baseball Daily Digest names Wandy as the Astros breakthrough performer
March 12: Bookmakers at the Hilton put O/U on Astros wins at 74

Close, so here's a cigar
April 6: John Royal, aka "Eeyore," says the Astros finish in 5th place, with a 72-90 record.
April 5: Astros County, Bruce Bukiet, TSN Canada, and The Leadoff Man pick the Astros to finish 4th; Nick DeWitt picks the Astros to finish 6th
January 26: I put the O/U on starting pitchers at 11.5 (actual: 10)
March 12: Coop says he'll need 20 pitchers to get through the season (actual: 22)

Nice pickin', Stevie Wonder
April 27: Baseball Prospectus says the Astros will go 66-96, five games behind the Pirates, 29 games behind the Cubs.
April 6: As does Keith Law
April 5: Jose de Jesus Ortiz and Dan Plesac pick the Astros to finish 2nd; Brian McTaggart picks the Astros to finish 3rd
April 3: San Francisco Chronicle's Bruce Jenkins says, "One of the classiest ballplayers in the business, Darin Erstad, will be invaluable off the bench."
March 26: Coop says the Astros will win 90 games
March 10: Bleacher Report says, "If Houston avoids a 100 loss season, it will be a shock.">

And Richard Justice's February 25 prediction post gets its own look:
-"Eight games under .500 on June 1"
Holy crap, they were 21-29.

-"Cecil Cooper will do a terrific job. By the end of this season, he'll have the support of fans, reporters, players and his front office. He'll get an extension for 2010 and a nice fat raise"
Well, he did get that extension

-"Russ Ortiz will be the No. 2 starter by mid-season. He's healthy for the first time in years and throwing the ball free and easy. He's a proven winner. His signing is going to be one of the smarter ones Ed Wade has made."

-"Mike Hampton will win more games than Randy Wolf"
Hampton: 7; Wolf: 11

-"Felipe Paulino will throw a 100-mph pitch this season. In the major leagues."
This may have happened

-"J.R. Towles is going to be entrenched as the starting catcher by Sept. 1. He may have to start the season in the minor leagues. That's not important. There's no reason he can't succeed. He's a first-rate catcher and on his way to getting his offensive issues figured out."

-"The Astros will have one of the National League's three best bullpens."
The Astros led the NL with 27 blown saves

-"Bud Norris, Brad James, Chris Johnson, Tommy Manzella and Brian Bogusevic will be pushing for spots on the big-league team by the second half of the season."
Norris did, and Johnson and Manzella at least got to fly on planes for a month.

-"Kaz Matsui will spend time on the disabled list, but it won't matter. Drew Sutton will fill in nicely."
Whoops.

-"Roy Oswalt will win his first Cy Young Award. Lance Berkman will be the National League MVP."

-"Darin Erstad, David Newhan and Jason Michael will again be invaluable off the bench."

-"Lou Palmisano will be Ed Wade's latest shrewd move from the Rule V draft, joining Wesley Wright and Shane Victorino on an impressive list."
Palmisano never made the Big Club

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