Monday, April 27, 2009

PECOTA: This is as good as it gets

Baseball Prospectus has simulated the season one million times. Where do our fair Astros project to the end of the season?

66-96. 29 games behind the Cubs. 5 games behind the Pirates for 6th place in the NLC, and put the playoff chances for the Astros at 0.87%.

And if you start to think, "What bullcrap!" Remember, Nate Silver developed PECOTA, and he projected the 2008 Presidential Election's popular vote as follows:

Obama - 52.3%
McCain - 46.2%

How did it actually play out?
Obama - 52.4%
McCain - 46.3%

So, uh...let's play two!