Saturday, December 25, 2010

In other news you already knew

The Astros traded Matt Lindstrom, in a further effort to shed payroll - which is like throwing deck chairs off the Queen Mary - and to restock Eddie's Farm.

Jonathan Mayo says...

On Wes Musick:
Musick will be 24 for the 2011 season, and he's a southpaw with a reputation as a strike-thrower. He throws his fastball in the 88-90-mph range with a good curveball. He does have the ability to get hitters to swing and miss. Whether he's able to remain a starter will depend on his ability to develop his changeup, something the Rockies had him working on this past year.

On Jonnathan Aristil:
With a 90-mph fastball and decent secondary stuff, Aristil profiles as a long reliever or a spot starter. He's willing to soak up innings and he's not afraid to take the ball in any situation.

Baseball America:

On Aristil:
Aristil finished his season with two scoreless innings in Triple-A with Colorado Springs, but the converted infielder had an unimpressive season. Our scouting report also isn't terribly impressive. He's got an upper-80s fastball that touches the low 90s, an average changeup that he relies on significantly, and a below-average curveball.

On Musick:
Musick has an easy scouting report as a classic lefthander with excellent secondary stuff and a fringy fastball. He has a long medical history, as he had both knee surgery to repair a torn ACL and Tommy John surgery when he was in college at Houston. Musick was drafted three times—out of high school by the Astros in 2005, as well as '08 and '09—because of his feel for a curveball and an excellent changeups, which scouts rate as a plus pitch.

Ed Wade:
In a perfect world you can keep everybody around and be even stronger but, the reality at this point and time, we felt we had protection on the back end of the bullpen. With the ability to go out and add two more young arms to create more depth in the system and balance the payroll, this was a sensible deal for us to make.

It makes perfect sense to make this trade (although why Lindstrom wasn't included in the Paulino trade is unclear). The Astros have already committed to Brandon Lyon for $5m+, and Lindstrom was probably going to get $2-3m in arbitration. For a team that would feel lucky to finish .500, you don't really need to commit $7-8m to the last two innings.

I liked Lindstrom, but his back problems and the presence of Brandon Lyon made him expendable. Of course, had the Astros traded Lyon, it would have made further payroll sense, but I digress. Ultimately, good move by Wade, and there's one less 30-year old on the roster.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Edwin Maysonet is now a Brewer

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says that the Brewers have signed Edwin Maysonet to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Figuring out these HOF votes

So we'll play a little game in which we rundown who will be, and who will not be, voting for Bagwell in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame. This will be updated regularly...

Jeff Jacobs:
Yes, Bagwell's numbers are similar to Hall of Famers Willie Stargell and Orlando Cepeda, but Bagwell played in the era of greatly inflated numbers. And besides never leading the Astros to postseason success, those inflated numbers and that inflated body lead to inevitable whispers of steroids. He has always denied it. He wasn't named in the Mitchell Report. The suspicion, however, postpones my support.

Ron Chimelis:
I plan to vote for Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.

Denver Post's Dave Krieger:
So this year, I'm voting for Morris, Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell and Tim Raines because I think they belong. I'm voting for Bagwell and Walker because I'm not sure if they belong, but I'm sure they deserve further consideration.

Heyman explains why he didn't vote for Bagwell

Jon Heyman posted his HOF ballot, which should be credited. Filed under "Close Calls, But Not Quite (Yet)" [sic] is one Bagwell, Jeff:

The numbers were plenty good (449 home runs, .408 OBP, .540 slugging percentage) and he'll merit reconsideration next year. I won't argue if he gets in, but I'd prefer a chance to reconsider in future years.

ESPN has jokes

It's not even Christmas, and ESPN is already running (Insider-Only) articles about how the Astros might as well not even bother in 2011.

You see, it's a ZiPS projection of the NL Central, and they only take into account the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.

But not without some snark:
Houston has so many holes that they should start selling Astros-imprinted colanders.

River Ave. Blues has their sights on two Astros

Over at the always-quality River Ave. Blues (Yankees blog), Mike Axisa ponders the potential acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. It's a well-thought-out argument, so be sure to give it a click, but here is the verdict:

Brett Myers:
Myers was sure to decline his part of an $8M mutual option for 2011 after the season he had, but Wade (who had Myers in Philadelphia) was proactive. He signed the righty to a two-year contract extension with a third year club option worth no less than $23M. Myers would make a lot of sense for the Yankees, but I just can’t imagine the Astros would be willing to trade him less than five months after giving him the extension.

Wandy Rodriguez:
Rodriguez simply makes far more sense for the Yankees and their current needs. He’s left-handed, can strike people out, and is on a short-term commitment. The Javy Vazquez trade could be a good comp in terms of prospect package required since both guys were coming off strong seasons with just one year left on their deals, so that means an average or worse big leaguer, a lower level pitching prospect, and a fungible relief prospect.

McTaggart, on Bill Hall

You've probably seen it, but Brian McTaggart has his own reaction to the Bill Hall signing. A pull:

Back to the Astros. With the moves to acquire Barmes and Hall, the Astros have completed their top offseason task, which was to add some run production to the middle of the infield. The Astros got a combined nine homers last season from the second base and shortstop positions, and Barmes and Hall could wind up hitting 20 apiece if things go right.

Suddenly, the lineup seems more legitimate.

FanGraphs, on Bill Hall

FanGraphs also did some thinking about Bill Hall. Here's a pull:

Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field is designed perfectly for Hall’s batting profile – a pull-heavy right hander...In a park that plays well to his skillset, and with a certain position for the first time since 2008, there’s reason to believe that Hall can produce at second base for the Astros in 2010. The situation works out perfectly for both teams: the Astros get a low-risk stopgap in a rebuilding time, and Hall gets a chance to build some value for one last push at another multi-year contract.

Thinking about this Bill Hall thing

So as the one who was on duty at the AC Desk this weekend, being called away on business meant that I completely failed at my job. I thought, "What can possibly happen?" And then the Astros went and signed Bill Hall to a $3.25 million contract. A couple of notes about this.

1. This is pretty clearly the end of Jeff Keppinger's time as 2B1. If this is true, I'm okay with that. 2010 was the best year of his career, and if the Astros can capitalize on that with a couple of prospects - even lower-level ones - then that's great.

2. That said, the Hall deal is only a one-year deal. Meaning the Astros are paying $3.25m for a guy who has posted one year with an OPS higher than .700 since 2007. Keppinger is heading to arbitration for the second time, after making $1.15m in 2010. Even if his 2nd year of arbitration nets him a 100% raise, it will result in almost a million dollars less than Bill Hall's deal. (But again, if you spend $1m adding a good prospect or two, then I can live with that).

3. The Astros are obviously just trying to get to 2012. Heading into 2012, Lee will be mercifully be in the final year of his contract. Bourn and Pence will be in their final year of arbitration. Hall will be off the books. Who knows what will happen to Barmes? Just right there, that's potentially five positions (without even having looked at pitchers) that are up in the air beginning in 2013. Will the Astros give extensions to Bourn or Pence? They've decided - rightly, in my humble opinion - to wait and see. There's no pressure to lock anybody up, because let's be honest, the Reds and Cardinals are going to be better - on paper - than the Astros for the next couple of seasons. With the Brewers acquiring Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, they are now better than the Astros.

4. So Wade is doing what he has done over the past couple of years: Trying to catch lightning in a bottle while adding to the farm system. It seems to be his M.O - stock the system, and then get fired before any of them finish climbing the chain. If you're a Wade believer, then you hope whomever is the new owner (if there even is one by 2012), believes in the system and keeps him on. It's not Wade's fault that the Astros have $35m in financial commitments in 2012, and $18.5m of that is to Carlos Lee. Patience is the word to remember around Astros Fandom. Think Mills is reminiscing about his days at Fenway yet?

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Now this HOF graph is pretty darn cool

Here's a way to kill the next half-hour.

Gift Ideas from Astros County!

Hey, have you checked out some of Astros County's merchandise? Subsidize our student loans by purchasing shirts, bibs, aprons, thongs, and more!

How about this one?


Or this one:

Astros hire Josh Bonifay

The Altoona Mirror says that the Astros have hired former Pirates minor leaguer-turned-coach Josh Bonifay to be Greeneville's hitting coach.

Bonifay:
"Houston called for an opportunity within their player development department as a hitting coach at a low-level rookie team. It was my first opportunity to have a full-time gig as a hitting coach and a longtime goal to continue my career in baseball.

"I am extremely fortunate for the opportunity, and I look forward to a long career as a coach."

Jerome Solomon takes our morning, and crams it down the toilet

I love Christmas. Santa Claus, sugarplum fairies, and whatnot. I love it because you're encouraged to suspend reality, even if it's for a week or two, and believe in something unbelievable (like a parking spot, or the hope that not everybody in Bed, Bath, and Beyond isn't going to be a complete douche).

However, Jerome Solomon took that suspension of reality, and beat it to death with his column on the 2011 Astros.

Wade believes Lee, Pence and Chris Johnson, who had a tremendous rookie season at third base, give the Astros three middle-of-the-lineup bats capable of delivering 25-30 home runs apiece and generating offense that could put the team in the hunt.

Brett Wallace at first base won't make us forget Lance Berkman anytime soon, but let's assume he'll graduate from Room .222 where he spent last season.

We'll also assume young catcher Jason Castro will at least hit his weight next season. Too bad he weighs only 210 pounds.


And so on...

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Heyman ain't voting for Bagwell

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman tweeted his HOF ballot today, and it did not include a certain 1B.

My hall of fame ballot: alomar, larkin, mattingly, morris, murphy, parker, raines.

Hey, let's at least give him credit for posting his ballot...

The Astros are selling about as well as the Furby

Dave Dalati says the market for the Astros is pretty dadgum slim as of now, and notes a surprising bit of information:

Of course no one expected the Astros to get purchased only a month after going on the market. But what is mildly surprising is that no local individual or group has even displayed serious interest yet.

Furthermore:
No local person among those that have the wherewithal to make such a purchase has emerged as seriously interested, although it’s possible someone is considering making a pitch to buy the team. A couple of years ago, Jim Crane of Houston was involved in serious negotiations with McLane to buy the team but those talks deteriorated late in the process.

Whether Crane would make another run now is unclear.

Minor-league signings!

Brian McTaggart says that the Astros have signed IF Brian Dopirak and RHP Sammy Gervacio to minor-league contracts with invitations to Major-League Spring Training.

Dopirak will be 27 next week, and was the Cubs' 2nd Round pick in 2002. He was in Triple-A Las Vegas in part of 2009 and all of 2010, hitting .296/.331/.476 in 138 games at Triple-A.

Over the course of nine minor-league seasons, Dopirak has hit .280/.336/.484, with 770K:271BB, 371 extra-base hits, and 596 RBI.

He's a first-baseman, which is interesting, as he'll either be IF6 or in Triple-A (or cut, I suppose). And isn't Koby going to be at Triple-A? Or Brett Wallace? Still, it doesn't hurt anything to give him a shot, and see if he can replicate his 25+ HR power (as he has done in three seasons, most recently in 2009 between AA-AAA).

And you know all about Slammin' Sammy Gervacio.

Big Sale at Minute Maid Park today

So if you find yourselves downtown today, head on over to Minute Maid, where there will be a big sale, including:

*Up to 60% off selected game-used caps, game jerseys and batting practice jerseys
*40% off game jackets
*50% off 2010 game-used baseballs
*40% off 2010 game-used bases
*New and game-used bats
*Limited supply of rare, 1986 game-worn Astros jerseys, with All-Star Game patch
*Large selection of discounted specialty items and collectibles priced at 50 cents and up.


Also, 10% off the Astros' franchise!

This Lance Pendleton fella is some kind of excited

So McTaggart interviewed Lance Pendleton and found a firecracker's worth of energy.

Pendleton, who even traveled to Chicago for the World Series in 2005 (but was not slapped by a White Sox fan):
"I've been a big Houston Astros fan for as long as I can remember. I'd be lying to you, having been in the Yankees' organization, if I said I had followed them nearly as much as I used to. But I'm ready to support them now, if that's all right."

Wade apparently happy with bullpen

Brian McTaggart says Ed Wade is quite pleased with how the bullpen is shaping up.

Wade:
"You can never have enough arms, but we realize as we sit here now that if we had to go to Spring Training and start it up tomorrow, we've got the components in place to be able to put a good bullpen together."

Who will close?
"That's the beauty of where we are. We had two guys last year who had 20 or more saves and we've got Wilton, who we think has closer capability. I think we go into Spring Training in the same mindset we had a year ago before Lyon fell behind because of having the cyst aspirated in his shoulder.

"If you've got more than one guy with the ability to go out there and handle the job, you can mix and match, use the hot hand or use it in a matchup situation, depending on the hitters coming up in the ninth or which pitcher had success against those hitters. Hopefully, everybody is healthy and competing and they show they have the capability and deserve to get the ball at the back end of games."

Baseball Prospectus runs down Eddie's Farm

Them There Crawfish Boxes had the link first, but Baseball Prospectus gave a little recap as to the state of Eddie's Farm. There's far too much to pull from, so just go ahead and give it a click for full info.

That said, here are the Astros' top 10 prospects, according to BP:
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
2. Delino DeShields Jr., 2B/OF
3. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
4. Ariel Ovando, OF
5. Jonathan Villar, SS
6. Jimmy Paredes, 2B
7. Tannuer Bushue, RHP
8. J.D. Martinez, OF
9. Mike Kvasnicka, 3B/OF/C
10. Jiovanni Mier, SS

And your money quote, from author Kevin Goldstein:
A combination of bad contracts, little young talent, and a poor minor-league system leaves the Astros with a big hole to dig out of. They're getting better slowly, but a return to contention is still years away, and anything but guaranteed.