Thursday Evening Hot Links

Yeah, I know there was one this morning. But! Baseball is back. We can debate the wisdom of even attempting to fly around the country and play in front of zero fans in the middle of a global pandemic. I've caught heat for being a "Corona Bro" (actually it was "Cornoa Bro" but that tweet was deleted) which, if I recall from the context, means that I think the government should be more proactive in stopping the spread of a virus that at least four million Americans have caught by implementing the European model of paying employers to keep their payrolls intact. And I do think that! There's a very clear playbook on how to weather an economic storm created by a global pandemic, and we just...threw it out the window. This is the first time I'm actually not excited about baseball being played since 2011. It's not that I don't want baseball to be played, I just think it's a high-risk/low-reward scenario. We have no idea of the long-term impacts of COVID-19. We know that you can be asymptomatic and spread it, we know that actual symptoms vary from person to person, from a stuffy nose, to permanent organ damage. I do not think we should just shut everything down until there's a vaccine. But as someone who does actually look at history for a living, you can't Business-As-Usual it. You just have to understand that these things come along periodically throughout human history, and I don't think it's unreasonable to allow for time to adjust to a Brand New Virus. For me, the last four months have shown me who I really am - and lot of who I regularly interact with really are. It's not been a pleasant journey, and I would like it to end (the virus, not my journey). Anyway, Baseball, I think!

Welcome back, old friend. It is so good to see you. #OpeningDay

🖊️ Written by Tom Verducci
🎙️ Narrated by Jon Hamm pic.twitter.com/wO1R01rWrG

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 23, 2020

*The Astros set their 30-Man Roster in advance of tomorrow night's alleged season opener. Here they are, with their number of MLB games played in parentheses:

Infielders
Jose Altuve (1243)
Alex Bregman (517)
Carlos Correa (546)
Aledmys Diaz (389)
Yuli Gurriel (455)
Jack Mayfield (26)
Abraham Toro (25)

Outfielders
Michael Brantley (1199)
Josh Reddick (1195)
George Springer (744)
Myles Straw (65)
Kyle Tucker (50)

Catchers
Dustin Garneau (123)
Martin Maldonado (717)
Garrett Stubbs (19)

Pitchers
Bryan Abreu (7)
Brandon Bailey (0)
Joe Biagini (217)
Chris Devenski (221)
Zack Greinke (488)
Josh James (55)
Cristian Javier (0)
Lance McCullers (83)
Roberto Osuna (310)
Enoli Paredes (0)
Ryan Pressly (362)
Cy Sneed (8)
Blake Taylor (0)
Framber Valdez (34)
Justin Verlander (453)

That's 13 players out of 30 who have played in fewer than 100 MLB games (postseason not included), nine who have played in less than 50, and six - all pitchers - who have played in less than ten MLB games.

*Chandler Rome has your 30-Man Roster analysis.

For me, the only roster surprise is that Brandon Bielak didn't make it. He seemed ahead of Brandon Bailey throughout summer camp and has experience in Triple A whereas Bailey hasn't pitched above Double A.

— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) July 23, 2020

*Check out this great Joe Trezza story on Brandon Bailey.

*There is no update on Yordan Alvarez, or Jose Urquidy. Perhaps they never were... James Click, on the timetable for their return:
Unfortunately, I can't comment on timelines or expectations on that. We're doing everything we can to get them back on the field as soon as we possibly can.

*Here's how the 2020 Postseason will go:
-Top two teams in each division qualify for the postseason (12 teams)
-Two next best teams in each league qualify for the postseason (4 teams)
-1st Round: Best-of-Three Wild Card series, all played at the park of the team with the better record.
-1st Round winners advance to Best-of-Five division series
-Championship Series and World Series are Bests-of-Seven

*Dan Szymborski: The Official 2020 Preseason ZiPS projections. He projects the Astros at 35-25, two games better than Oakland, with a 43.9% to win the division, 15.9% to win a Wild Card (God knows there's gonna be 10 Wild Cards), 7.5% to win the World Series, behind only the Dodgers and Yankees.

Meanwhile, FanGraphs has their own Playoff Odds, which puts the Astros at 35.7-24.3, 62.5% to win the division, 17.2% to win a Wild Card spot, and 16.1% to win the World Series, behind only the Dodgers.

So, circling back (I'm a "Circle-Back" guy now), if we use FanGraphs' Playoff Odds as a guide for what the postseason would look like using their simulated numbers:

AL East: Yankees, Rays
AL Central: Twins, Spiders (the rebranded team in Cleveland)
AL West: Astros, A's
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, White Sox

NL East: Nationals, ATLiens (the rebranded team in Atlanta)
NL Central: Cubs, Brewers
NL West: Dodgers, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Mets, Reds

The six division winners - which would be the Astros, Yankees, and Twins in the AL; Dodgers, Nationals, and Cubs in the NL - would then pick their opponents in a five-hour selection show, leaving the two teams that did not get picked, I guess, to play each other. It's insane, I think. It just might be genius. Because let's say the Astros are blessed enough to pick their opponent. You think that, if they choose the White Sox (just throwing a name out there), that the White Sox won't feel the immense disrespect? To win the World Series this year, I think it means you have to win 13 games.

*Jake Kaplan, on what Mookie Betts' extension means for George Springer. TL;DR: Maybe not all that much.



*Dusty Baker and the Astros Foundation are giving 3,000 masks to people in homeless encampments around Houston.

*The Astros are still waiting on the results from their COVID tests after learning of Hunter Dozier's positive test.

*Juan Soto - who is still somehow 21 - tested positive for COVID-19 on the day the Nationals are to play the AL Silver Medalists to start the season.

*The Astros are 3rd in SI's Opening Day Power Rankings.

*Get your new Astros gear at ApolloHOU.

*Sam Miller: A Newbie's Guide to the 2020 Season.

*MLB players plan to stand for a "Moment of Unity" before this evening and Friday's games.

*SI's Emma Baccellieri: The end of missing baseball.

*Vice: 21 Non-Boring And Safe Ways To See Friends This Summer.

*Buzzfeed: Facebook's employees reckon with the social network they built.

*NY Times: How some janitors are asked to keep you virus-free.

*A Musical Selection:



Be happy in every moment you possibly can, but remember that there's comfort in grief.

Saturday Evening Hot Links

There's another one of those intrasquad thingies tonight.

*Check out Chandler Rome's 60 Things To Watch in 2020 piece. It looks cool but, even though I subscribe to the Chronicle - and the website tells me my subscription is active - it wouldn't actually let me read it. Great service.

*Brian McTaggart: Kyle Tucker stands to benefit the most from Yordan's absence. Click that link to see the piecemeal bullpen the Astros are trying to put together for 2020.

*McTaggart also projected the Opening Day roster.

*MLB.com's Mark Feinsand has one trade candidate for all 30 MLB teams and buddy the Astros one is a shocker.

*The Astros have one of the easiest early schedules in MLB.

*Kiley McDaniel mentions Bryan Abreu and Forrest Whitley as intriguing possibilities, but lists Abraham Toro as the most-likely Astros prospect to have a big impact.

*The Athletic: The Astros are deploying a First Amendment-ish strategy in their defense of sign-stealing lawsuits.

*Daniel Bard came back from the yips.

*Canada won't let the Blue Jays play in Toronto in 2020.

*ESPN: Streaks and records that will get cut short by a 60-game season. One note:
The Astros have won at least 100 games in each of the past three seasons. Houston was seeking to become the first team in history with four straight 100-win regular seasons. That's not going to happen...Including the postseason, the Astros won 336 games over the past three seasons, the most by a team in any three-season span in MLB history.

The 2009-2013 Astros won 312 games, 24 fewer wins in six seasons than in the last three seasons. That's nuts. Mike Fiers can go to hell.

*Brentford had won eight straight games. After yesterday's shock West Brom loss to Huddersfield, Brentford lost to Stoke this morning, confirming Leeds United as Champions of the Championship (not as impressive as it sounds, but still...it's wonderful.)

*A Musical Selection:





It can happen here. It is happening here, and all that needs to continue for it to happen here is silence.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*Justin Verlander had surgery on his correct right groin and is expected to miss six weeks. This, of course, means he may not actually miss any playing time. Verlander's Spring:

February 26: Scratched with "groin discomfort."
March 8: Leaves Grapefruit League start with "sore triceps."
March 9: Diagnosed with mild lat strain.
March 17: Surgery on groin.

James Click:
Initially, the hope was that physical therapy would be the proper course of action. However, after a recent setback in his rehab, the medical staff recommended that a surgical procedure was necessary.

More Click:
He got a second opinion and surgery was recommended. As I understand it, (the surgery) was perfectly successful.

*Continuing with the Venmo Someone Affected theme:
Kristen Brubaker
AndyZipp
Haley Hearne
Olivia Wilson
Mark Fuhrer

*Tom Verducci: How a shortened season could dramatically alter 2020.

*Buster Olney: Six ways MLB can make the best of a tough situation.

*MLB Clubs each gave $1m to a fund to help ballpark employees during the Coronavirus outbreak.

*That's cool, and while MLB generated $10.7 Billion in revenues in 2019, there are "active conversations" about how the Astros will try to compensate their minor league players, you know, the organization's future. And somehow this Adopt-A-Minor-Leaguer program is taking off.

If the Astros gave $1m to their minor-league players, it would translate into roughly $5,000 each. That's not an insignificant amount of money in a very uncertain time.

*Imperial College ran a simulation of what would happen if the United States treated COVID-19 like the flu, and didn't do anything. If you don't want to read the report (I understand) the tl;dr version: this could kill millions in the United States, and far more worldwide.

*Inside The Vatican's Coronavirus scare.

*The Coronavirus called America's bluff.

*America's restaurants will need a miracle.

*If you think Jared Kushner will save you, unless you're Jared Kushner (or Trump), you're sadly mistaken.

*Vice: The strange link between pandemics and psychosis.

*Vox: Social distancing for months or a year, or let hundreds of thousands of people die.

*How WW2 saved The Great Gatsby from obscurity.

*A Musical Selection: