Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Mike Fiers wasn't very Fiers-like (or he was VERY Fiers-lake, depending on which way your confirmation bias leans you), Michael Feliz unraveled, and the Astros couldn't put together anything against Very Good Pitcher Aaron Nola. Astros lose 9-0. They are 67-34 and drop to 9-1 against the National League, giving the NL hope in the Best-of-19 series. The Mariners lost, so the lead remains at 17, with 61 games remaining. After 50 road games, the Astros are 37-13.

*Hinch:
It wasn't a good night for us, and it really started with their starting pitcher. Nola did a great job. 

Nola:
They're pretty good, but I just tried to stay with my plan. Don't really change up anything because they're in first place. I think location was going to get them. That's what I was focused on tonight, trying to make pitches in quality locations.

*Via Jake Kaplan: Aaron Nola became just the second pitcher this season, joining Corey Kluber, to strike out 10+ Astros in a game.

*Mike Fiers threw just 4IP, 5H/3ER, 7K:3BB, breaking a string of three straight quality starts. Fiers has failed to record 13 outs twice in his past five outings, throwing 100+ pitches on 4IP against the Yankees on July 2, and last night.

*Michael Feliz got lit up, allowing 8H/6ER, 5K:0BB in 2IP. The Phillies had a single, triple, and a home run off of him by the time he threw his 8th pitch. (They got the double, later in the inning). Hinch went out to the mound and gave Feliz, who declined to talk to reporters after the game, a talkin-to:
I just had something to say to him about what I wanted him to do in terms of competing.

Arbitrary Endpoint Alert: Since June 30 (nine appearances) Feliz has thrown 8IP, 19H/10ER, 14K:7BB on an absurd .630 BABIP.

*The Astros' .858 team OPS is one point behind the 1930 Cubs for the highest OPS by a team in a season since 1913:

It's worth noting that this year's #Astros are currently 5th on that list (1913-today) pic.twitter.com/ul0JjAnbgf

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) July 27, 2017

*Jose Altuve extended his hitting streak to 18 games with a leadoff double. Carlos Beltran and Tyler White joined Altuve with two hits apiece, and the Astros were 0x9 w/RISP.

*Marwin Gonzalez was 1x3 with a walk, and now has a 29-game on-base streak.

*Maybe you've heard of this Dallas Keuchel kid. He'll get promoted from Tri-City to start against Detroit on Friday. The Astros were 39-16 after Dallas Keuchel won the last start he made on June 2, and have gone 28-18 since. If you had the Astros winning at a .609 clip without Dallas Keuchel, step right up to this stake and let us burn you for witchcraft.

*Depending on how he feels after last night's rehab appearance, Will Harris should be activated from the DL on Friday. And Feliz could be optioned to Fresno to make room for him.

*George Springer should return on Friday.

*Mike Lupica:
The Astros might not have as many needs as some of the other contending teams. But they still have a need: To do something. Now.

*Jeff Luhnow told Jerry Crasnick at Citizens Bank Park that the Astros aren't going to go insane:
We're not going to overpay dramatically, because we're not in a situation where we have to. We have a pretty good team, and if we can improve it without giving up too much of our future, we will...Whoever we get, we're not acquiring them to help us win the division. We're acquiring them to help us in the postseason.

*Are the Astros looking at a starter? WHO KNOWS!? But what we do know now is that, given Stephen Strasburg's new arm issue, the Astros will (could?) have a rival bidder in the Washington Nationals.

*Joel Sherman says most teams have told the A's what they would give them in exchange for Sonny Gray, and the Yankees, Nationals, and Mariners (!) are front-runners.

*Ken Rosenthal talked about the Mariners' interest in Gray, and got this from a "rival exec" on Seattle's farm system:
I don't think [GM Jerry Dipoto] is burning it to the ground. I think he knows it's already on fire and is trying to do what he can with the assets he has. 

*The Astros are not one of the ten teams to whom Yu Darvish's can reject a trade. Meanwhile, the Rangers "would love to" get their 2018 starting CF in any potential Darvish deal. Also, the Marlins (!) destroyed Darvish last night. And would Jon Daniels actually trade Darvish to Houston ?
If the right baseball decision for the Rangers is trading [a player] in the division or in-state, I don't have a problem with that.

(Click that last link. Jerry Crasnick isn't so sure.)

*Bob Nightengale says the Rangers would be idiots to trade Darvish.

*Crasnick: The Orioles want a "big return" for Zach Britton, and teams are trying to decide if his forearm/elbow are up for a late October run.

*The Padres may not be shopping Brad Hand, after all, seeing as how apparently no team wants to give up their three top prospects for a lefty reliever. HOWEVER! This chucklenuts thinks the Astros could trade Derek Fisher, Forrest Whitley, and Hector Perez for NL West Lefty Reliever. Please ssshhhhh.

*Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause (22 teams).

*Chris Haft did a good bunch of words about that Red Sox/Astros trade that brought Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell to Houston.

*Joe Posnanski writes that Bagwell's career was defined by his consistency.

*Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell is a happy family man now.

*Jenny Dial Creech: On Bagwell, Biggio, and Growing Up

*Dale Robertson takes a look at Astros trades of the past.

*The last remaining statue of Nolan Ryan in Alvin fell down.

*Jay Jaffe's new book, "The Cooperstown Casebook: Who's In the Baseball Hall of Fame, Who Should Be In, and Who Should Pack Their Plaques" is out.

According to JAWS, Jaffe's HOF rating system, Bagwell is the 6th-best 1B to ever play the game.

*I know Adrian Beltre is a member of the Ramgers. We're supposed to hate everything about them. But I don't. I love Adrian Beltre and, if you don't appreciate how good he has been and how much fun he is to watch simply because he plays for South Ardmore, then I don't know how to respond to you. Idiot Umpire Gerry Davis told Beltre to get in the on-deck circle. Belter dragged the on-deck circle to where he was standing. Idiot Umpire Gerry Davis ejected him:

I had never seen someone ejected for dragging an on-deck circle so thank you Adrian Beltre pic.twitter.com/8Trb8dbjN7

— Dave Lozo (@davelozo) July 27, 2017

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Fourteen years ago today I married the woman of my dreams. The Astros lost to the Cubs, 5-3. But 14 years ago tomorrow she took an epic nap and I sat in our hotel room and watched the Astros beat the Cubs 3-1! I have her to thank for the support that allows me to post on this dumb web site so much. She means everything to me and I love her with all my heart. 

*Don't get too cocky, Astros fans. Where the Phillies are right now is where the Astros were in 2011. Maybe 2012. Have some respect, show some class. Act like you've been there before, because we have. And Phillies fans have, too. Astros win 13-4 and improve their record to 66-33. They are 36-12 on the road. And now they are 8-0 against the National League. The Mariners won, so the Astros are still 17 games up with 63 games to play.

*The Astros have scored 594 runs in 99 games, which puts them precisely at 6.0 runs/game. They will need to average 6.44 runs per game over their last 63 games to reach 1000 runs for the season. Doable?

*Phillies manager Pete Mackanin:
This is as good a team as we've seen. They go up there to do damage. They look like they're ready to hit every pitch. They're not taking pitches to get a look at the pitcher. If you make a mistake out over the plate, they're going to hurt you.

Now read that again, but imagine Mackanin is running his fingers through his hair, wide-eyed, with a cigarette dangling from his lips.

*Former Astros Great Vince Velasquez:
They hammer mistakes. McCann hit that fastball over the middle. I can't leave it over the middle like that. It cut right over the middle, right into his barrel. Bregman is just a great, great hitter. Just what he's done, coming up in the league, he's been phenomenal. 

When @astros fans are in your mentions telling you to get a roof... pic.twitter.com/Uz9dpSbOER

— Phillies (@Phillies) July 25, 2017

*George Springer left the game after the third inning with discomfort in his quad after his spike got caught in the dumb Philadelphia ground. Notable that Springer strained his left quad in July 2014 and was shut down for the year. Hinch thinks Springer will avoid the DL, but he'll get today off.

*Related: James Hoyt was optioned back to Fresno (after throwing 2IP, 3H/0ER, 2K:1BB) and Derek Fisher was called up. Fisher grew up in Lebanon, Pennsylvania, which is 100 miles from Citizens Bank Park. Hopefully he gets a start tonight or tomorrow.

*Dallas Keuchel will throw a bullpen session today and start either Friday or Saturday at Detroit. Will Harris will go on a rehab assignment tomorrow. Within that link we find that Colin Moran has been released from the hospital and will drive back to Houston for surgery since he has not been cleared to fly.

*Jose Altuve collected four hits for the 2nd game in a row, going 4x4 with a walk. He's hitting .507/.554/.760 in the month of July, pushing his OPS to 1.005. As David Schoenfield notes, the only 2Bs since 1950 to have a season OPS over 1.000 are Joe Morgan (1976) and Jeff Kent (2000). I mean, I'm sure Aaron Judge is going to win the AL MVP award because Yankees, but we are watching something ridiculously special with Altuve, just like I said after Sunday's game. Altuve's SLG, by month:
April: .472
May: .530
June: .576
July: .760

Altuve's .433 road avg is the highest since. baseball. integrated. Hinch:
This guy continues to be amazing. I don't know how else to describe him. It's line to line, it's home runs, it's multiple hits, it's walks when he needs it. He's every bit the MVP candidate that he looks like, and he ignites us on so many levels on this team.

To do some ridiculous math, let's assume Altuve ends the season with 639 ABs (his average for the past two seasons). In order for him to hit .400 for the season (again, ridiculous) he would need to reach 256 hits for the year. Altuve is at 138 hits now in 378 ABs, meaning he would need 118 hits in his next 261 ABs - or he would need to finish the year hitting .452. Ted Williams was a beast.

*Alex Bregman became the 10th Astros with 10+ HR. Once Reddick hits his next homer, the Astros will have 11 players with 10+ home runs.

*Brad Peacock told Jake Kaplan that he feels as good right now as has since he debuted in 2011, and the slider he learned from Jordan Jankowski has been key for him.

*Washington Post: Luhnow is looking to make his team October-ready. Ken Giles, on possible additions to the team:
If the front office feels like they'd be more comfortable adding someone else - the more, the merrier. We're open arms. There's never any hard feelings over asking for more help.

*With the Astros playing the rebuilding Phillies, it lead to several pieces in the Philly media comparing them to the Astros. Some were optimistic. Some were not.

*Ken Giles says he put too much pressure on himself to perform early in his Astros career:
I wanted to show these guys I was ready to win for them. Going from a losing team to a winning team is different. You know what you're worth. You know what you bring to the table. If you don't bring that stuff to the table you get frustrated with yourself. That's how it was.

*The Allentown Morning Call revisited the Giles trade from the Phillies side.

*The Rangers are ready to move Yu Darvish, "for the right price." If the Astros don't, the Dodgers will.

*Bob Nightengale asks if the Astros will move their prospects:
Think they'll be wildly celebrating a 110-victory season if they're sitting home early in October, still looking for their first championship in franchise history?

*MLB.com released their Midseason Top 100 Prospects list, and the Astros put five on there and - according to their point system - have the 5th-best farm system in baseball. Here are the five, with their rankings:
Kyle Tucker: #10
Forrest Whitley: #40
Franklin Perez: #46
Derek Fisher: #54
J.B. Bukauskas: #87

Just for comparison sake, here are the number of Top 100 prospects in other AL West teams:
A's: 3
Rangers: 1
Mariners: 1
Angels: 0

*Check out the Phillies fan double-fisting:

This guy's all right. pic.twitter.com/INMT2XdVPE

— Seth Payne (@PayneNFL) July 25, 2017

Astros pick up Gattis, trade Neshek: Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros made two moves yesterday. Let's take them one at a time:

1. Picked up Evan Gattis' 2017 option for $5.2m.

This was a no-brainer. $5.2m is not a lot of money to pay for 32 home runs, and when it turned out in 2016 that Gattis was a viable back-up catcher? Picking up his $5.2m option was a done deal by September. Gattis did walk at a higher rate (though still not a terribly high 8.6%) than in 2015 and of course his power improved to a .257 ISO and a .508 SLG.

As Jake Kaplan reminds us, Max Stassi is out of options. So he will either make the Opening Day 2017 roster or have to pass through waivers to stay in the organization. The Astros needed to have a back-up catcher on the roster, anyway.

2. Traded Pat Neshek to Philadelphia for a PTBNL.

The Astros could have picked up Neshek's option for $6.5m or bought him out for $500,000. Just by looking at the dashboard stats you would think that Neshek had a better year in 2016 than he did in 2015, so this decision may seem curious. His K/9 was down a tick (8.23 from 8.40), BB/9 up a tick (2.11 from 1.98) - but nothing terribly off. He cut his BABIP-allowed from .273 to .216.

But if you look at how Neshek had to be used - a righty specialist - it starts to make more sense:

Neshek vs. RHB, 2016: 130 PAs, .172/.209/.254, 32K:6BB
Neshek vs. LHP, 2016:    55 PAs, .250/.321/.646, 11K:5BB.

$6.5m may not be a lot to pay a lefty specialist (see: Sipp, Tony), but it is a lot to pay a guy who shouldn't be allowed to face left-handed batters.

Add to that (and I need to give a hat-tip to @StrosWS2016 for reminding me) Neshek was fairly critical of the front office's decision to stand pat at the Trade Deadline:
It's hard to go from a veteran leader like Feldman to kids who have never been up here and find ways to get the team cohesive. We went from two rookies to nine rookies in a couple of weeks. It makes it tough.

Neshek sounded a little disillusioned with his role with the Astros to MLB.com:
I'm going to miss all the guys, especially in the bullpen. That was a good group of guys. You live with these guys for two years, and you pick up and go and it's very sad. I think it's going to be great. I'm going to have a lot better opportunity with the Phillies than with the Astros. 

*Essentially, in payroll terms, the Astros swapped out Neshek for Aoki.

*Brian McTaggart has a Way Too Early Opening Day 2017 preview, complete with reasons to be excited.

*Indians.com writer Anthony Castrovince's story of life, love, and the loss of his son is powerful and heartbreaking.

*The Royals declined their options on Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales.

*Maybe don't read the scouting report on former Astros outfielder Brett Phillips.

*Check the New York Times' front page...had the Cubs lost the World Series.

*The New Zealand All Blacks were at the Cubs parade.

*Ralph Terry - who gave up a walk-off homer to Bill Mazeroski in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series - has a message for Brian Shaw.

*How Texas A&M is trying to save coffee.

*A San Antonio cop was fired for allegedly giving a homeless person a literal sh*t sandwich.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

For the most part, things have (publicly) settled down with the Astros after the Ken Giles trade. Still, I think we can rustle up a few things of interest...

*Of the 42 markets with an MLB, NBA, and/or an NFL team, Grammarly ranked Houston 29th in terms of "most grammatical mistakes per 100 words," with 12.70.

I actually think this is because Grammarly doesn't understand what "cHRis carter" meant.

*Alex Speier: Giles, Kimbrel deals show relief doesn't come cheap.

*Phillies GM Matt Klentak said the Astros' offer was too good to pass up.

*This Marc Hulet FanGraphs piece says that the failed physical was (allegedly) Derek Fisher.

*While working out the details of the Giles deal, the Astros were in on Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, Jake McGee, Brad Boxberger, and Craig Kimbrel.

*The Astros are not on Jonathan Papelbon's no-trade list. Good, it would be fun to have a guy in the clubhouse who might choke you at any point.

*Ted Berg has a good writeup of Mark Appel and the effectiveness of the MLB draft.

*Former Astros announcer Dave Raymond will help out on the Rangers tv and radio broadcasts.

Appel becomes a Phillie as Ken Giles trade becomes official... (updated)

A bit of a shock today as the Ken Giles trades becomes official.  What the Phillies have announced is the following players are shifting organisations:

Ken Giles and Jonathan Arauz to Houston

Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman, Mark Appel and Harold Arauz to Philadelphia.

Astros County has already published a couple of post-trade articles on this particular topic, so I urge the interested (and undoubtedly handsome) reader to refer back to those articles.  In this one, I posted immediate news of the trade, and the Constable chimed in with his analysis of Ken Giles, and in this one, I have a quick look at the outgoing prospects, and talked a little about how I saw bullpens having evolved over the last 15-or-so years.

I must say that I was confused when news broke of the change to the trade.  Firstly, I wondered whether Appel and Fisher were included in the trade, because the MLB Trade Rumors article essentially listed a whole bunch of names at initial glance.  If you look, it seems like the trade could have been for Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Appel, Arauz and Fisher, but after a second-or-two of shock, I realised that Fisher's name was part of the next sentence.  So Fisher remains an Astro, which undoubtedly would please some, but in his place, Mark Appel and Harold Arauz depart.

Appel's departure - much like Fisher's reported departure - is probably going to result in divided opinions amongst Astros fans.  Appel, famously, was a candidate to go first in the 2012 draft, but the Astros passed him over for Carlos Correa, later drafting Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz.  The latter two became affordable because the below-slot deal that Correa agreed two meant the Astros could afford to go over-slot with their later picks, and McCullers and Ruiz were the beneficiaries of that.  Appel dropped to the eighth overall pick, where he was selected by the Pirates.  After he turned down their bonus offer, he re-entered the 2013 draft, and was taken first by the Astros.

I pulled up a Wikipedia list of the 2013 draftees - and please support the current Wikipedia appeal if you are able to - expecting to be able to list a bunch of players who I would have preferred the Astros to have taken instead of Mark Appel.  Well, there aren't that many, but the one player the Astros missed taking is a biggie.  Kris Bryant will be forever burnt into the memories of Astros fans as the One Who Got Away.  2013 wasn't that long ago, and there is a lot of water still to go under the bridge in terms of that draft, but Bryant is the guy who has made the biggest impact on baseball to this point.

Like the 2013 first round, the Astros' 2013 draft seems similarly underwhelming too.  Appel has been a disappointment, as was Andrew Thurman, who is now a Brave.  Also traded away from the Astros is Jacob Nottingham, who when to Oakland as part of the exchange for Scott Kazmir.  Tony Kemp seems to have a thing going, but he is blocked in his most natural position.  No one else really sticks out, except for perhaps Kyle Westwood and/or Tyler Brunnemann, who seem to have had a few solid seasons in the mid-minors each.  The irony is that the biggest contributor from the 2013 draft for the Astros looks set to be Colin Moran, who the Astros considered (and passed on) for the first pick, but later acquired from Miami in the Cosart trade.

Mark Appel has a long history with Astros County.  For a start, the Constable interviewed him pre-draft in 2012.  Then we watched as he was drafted 1-1 in 2013, later celebrating his professional debut.  Then 2014 happened, and Appel's results were lacklustre despite positive scouting comments, leading to an infamous bullpen session at MMP that got everyone excited for no reason.  The bullpen session occurred en route to Corpus, after Appel was promoted from Lancaster, immediately after a solid start in Stockton.  2014 was the kind of year for Appel where the two earned runs in six frames against Stockton was considered a success, but he had been the victim of appendicitis, so perhaps lingering core muscle problems were to blame.

Appel finished 2014 at Corpus, then he progressed to the Arizona Fall League, where he showed some more prospect potential.  When the AFL season concluded, I had a quick look at Appel's game logs, noting that he was sometimes solid, and sometimes totally dominant.  Hopes for further progression were high entering 2015, which Appel started by returning to the Hooks.

However, 2015 was another unimpressive year for Appel.  He split the year evenly between Corpus and Fresno, posting near-identical stats in each.  His overall year involved 131-and-two-thirds innings pitched, for a combined 4.37 ERA.  His WHIP was a middling 1.413, and he struck out 7.5 per nine innings, against a rate of 3.5 walks per nine.  Appel allowed roughly a home run per nine innings over both levels.  Perhaps significantly, nine unearned runs did not contribute to his 4.37 ERA - ncluding them increases his runs-against-per-nine average to 4.99.

To me, and given that Appel will play 2016 as his age-24 season, those aren't the numbers normally associated with a top prospect.  The one caveat that I would mention is that sometimes minor-league pitchers are working on something at AA and AAA - perhaps a breaking pitch or something - and that makes them predictable to opposing hitters and their performance prone to fluctuation.  But it has always seemed that Appel has only really been working on being effective in the minor-leagues, and combined with concerns about his stuff dating back pre-draft, along with his rough start as a pro, it is possible that the Astros see him as simply not making enough progress to justify his place in the organisation.

Appel continues to get some prospect-love, however.  He was rated number 2 of the Astros' MLB.com prospect list prior to the trade, and the same organisation ranks Appel number 43 in the most recent top-100 prospect rankings.  However, top draftees are often the beneficiaries of some positive propaganda in various media organisations associated with major-league clubs, and it is possible that Appel's place in those rankings remain inflated by virtue of his drafting position at 1-1, back in 2013.

So 2016 was poised to be a big year for Mark Appel, and he won't see it out in the Astros organisation.  Here ends an interesting relationship between Appel and the Astros, who always seemed every supportive of their asset, despite middling overall results.

Appel's inclusion does change the trade analysis somewhat.  My quick take is that this is an exchange of high-risk high-ceiling prospects - Appel has some risk involved, but so too does Fisher.  However, Appel's floor is likely to be higher than Fisher's, and Appel always has the significant advantage of trialling himself as a reliever if he flames out as a starter.  Fisher potentially has a role as a bench-bat, but relievers are more valuable than pinch hitters, which is why the Astros are making this trade in the first place.

The change in personnel associated with this trade also raises some questions that call into question Fisher's overall value.  Jonathan Arauz (included in the trade to the Astros) isn't a nothing, as a 17-year-old toolsey middle infielder, but it is a long way from knowing exactly what he happens to be.  The question as to why the trade pieces were changed also arises - was Fisher excluded because of a medical reason, or was the trade mis-reported from the beginning??  I would think it likely that there is something in Fisher's medical records that the Phillies didn't like, both teams settled on Appel instead, and the including of one Arauz minor-leaguer going each way balanced out the difference in value between Appel and Fisher.

I like this trade more for the Phillies now.  They get another high-risk pitching prospect instead of a high-risk outfielder.  Risk should matter less to the Phillies in four-for-one or five-for-two exchanges.  The risk is partly mitigated by the sheer number of players headed in the Phillies' direction.  If one of them hits, then the trade has been worthwhile, and because they aren't expected to contend any time soon, they can take their sweet time finding out what Velasquez, Oberholtzer and Appel are capable of.  For the Astros, the fact they have two guys coming their way spreads their risk a little, but it is is easy to imagine this trade being viewed as a bust for the Astros in a few years time, because the value for the Astros is - at this point in time - nearly entirely dependant on Giles' performance and health.

The inclusion of another starting pitcher also means that the Astros (i) are more likely to sign a free-agent starter and (ii) again double-down on their top prospects, which for now consist of Michael Feliz, Francis Martes and Joe Musgrove.  Earlier in the offseason, many Astros fans were wondering how they were going to deal with their prospect depth in the starting pitching ranks, and I guess now we are finding out.

Thanks for reading, and please add to the comments below.

Friday Morning Hot Links

*A.J. Hinch is up to the challenge of "Actual Expectations" as opposed to "No Expectations."

*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan: Astros land dominant Ken Giles for potentially dominant Vincent Velasquez. Sullivan:
Giles has some risk, but Velasquez also has some obvious risk, and taking a step back, the Astros probably do need to concentrate more talent instead of having more quality players than they can protect on the 40-man. This is the Astros consolidating talent. And this is the Phillies collecting it.

*Will Harris is very excited about Giles and Sipp:
All of us selfishly wanted (Sipp) to stay, but at the same time he had to do what's best for himself and his family and his future. And for those two things to line up, it's obviously the best of both worlds. I was really, really excited for him and for myself.

*The Astros are one of Jayson Stark's Winter Meetings winners.

*Gosh, where have we seen this before? The Philadelphia Inquirer's Mike Sielski says the Phillies should be ashamed of themselves for all their rebuilding efforts. An actual line from the story with no context:
I hate new things.

UPDATE: It seems as though the previous link is some next-level satire that you have to be (a) from Philly and (b) a Sixers fan to get.

*Somehow Oliver Perez got 2yrs/$7m from Washington.

*The Reds are still trying to trade Aroldis Chapman, hoping that a club won't mind a pesky little thing like a domestic violence charge if it means a clock stoppage on his service time, which won't accrue while/if Chapman is suspended.

*Read what a crap sandwich Yasiel Puig is turning into in Los Angeles.

*The Nationals are fighting the Angels, Cubs, and Cardinals for the right to pay Jason Heyward for the next ten years.

*Brian Bogusevic is headed to the Orix Buffaloes of the NPB.

Astros Successfully Pry Ken Giles from the Phillies' Cold, Dead, Rebuilding Hands

According to various sources:
Ken Giles to Houston in exchange of Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer and Derek Fisher.
Analysis to follow. In the meantime, discuss below.

Now it seems as though there is a fourth player heading to Philadelphia to complete the deal.

Just to recap, Ken Giles will be 25 for most of 2016 (he won't turn 26 until September 20). He was the Phillies' 7th Round pick in 2011. In the minors he struck out 190 batters in 140.2IP, walking 90. In 2014 and 2015 for the Phillies he threw 115.2IP, 84H/20ER, 151K:36BB for a 4.19 K:BB ratio, 11.7 K/9. Or, he has faced 464 major league batters, and allowed 121 of them to reach base. That is Not A Lot of Baserunners.

His four-seam fastball averages 97mph, though he can touch 100mph, and hit 103mph at Clearwater. Giles told CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury before the 2014 season:
When I'm at the ballpark - people have seen it, my teammates have seen it - it's like I flip a switch. I have like a second personality. I'm very hard to approach when I'm at the park. It looks like I don't want to talk to anybody, but I'm in the zone right there and then. I love to compete. I love a challenge. People always say I have the personality to be a late-game reliever and I agree with that.

His four most similar pitchers through Age 24 seasons (via Baseball Reference) include Bruce Sutter, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Joakim Soria.

Worth noting:

The #Astros acquire Ken Giles pending physical. Giles has a career 1.56 ERA. The lowest in baseball history (minimum 100 innings pitched).

— Ace of MLB Stats (@theaceofspaeder) December 10, 2015

Giles also will pitch for league minimum until 2018, and then he goes to arbitration and won't be a free agent until he's 21.

Now, a Contrarian would say:

Precisely. RT @MatthewHLeach it's even conceivable that you can make another one out of Velasquez.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) December 10, 2015

And I would say: Gosh! Why didn't LOSENOW think of that? Just "make another elite closer!" It's that simple! Head down to the baseballin' factory and build a 24-year old pitcher who throws 100mph like it's a damn Build-A-Bear. Be sure to put the heart inside of him before he's stitched up, in case you lose him!

And after I got punched I would say: And the Phillies are in a position with their franchise in which they can play around with that option and see if it works. The Astros are no longer in that position. They needed the proverbial fireballin' gunslinger type to come in and shut down the game. After making the playoffs and building towards their Sports Illustrated-appointed Window of Contention, the Astros are not as comfortable experimenting with their prospects with meaningful games on the line as, say, the Phillies might be.

So, yes, Velasquez might be able to slot right in to the back of the Phillies bullpen and pick up where Ken Giles left off. It's now up to the Phillies to see if that spaghetti sticks to the wall.

Yes, the Astros gave up some names, but do I feel better heading into 2016 and beyond? Yes. Yes I do.

What do the Astros do now? Look for starting pitching, according to McTaggart...

UPDATE on that 4th player headed to Philly:

Unidentified 4th player Astros are sending to the Phillies (a pitcher per @JSalisburyCSN) is not being kept quiet because of Rule 5 I’m told

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) December 10, 2015

Astros trying to take Ken Giles from Philly's cold dead rebuilding hands

Jon Heyman has a note this morning that the Astros are still in on Phillies reliever Ken Giles:

Astros are still trying to pry Ken Giles from phillies. If happens, deal would involve some of better prospects.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 9, 2015

We wrote about Ken Giles last week when this came up. While the Astros aren't going to have to give up what the Diam'nd'ac's gave up for Shelby Miller, you can expect this one to sting...if it happens.

UPDATE: Okay, CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury says talks between the Phillies and Astros are "heating up."

UPDATE: Jayson Stark - who basically has "Ill" tattooed on his chest - says he's hearing Lance McCullers will not be a part of any deal. The Phillies want pitching and more pitching, tweets Stark.

--

To borrow a couple of paragraphs we wrote last week, here's some quick background on Giles:

He's a 6'2" 205lb 25-year old righty reliever - the Phillies' 7th Round pick in 2011. In 2014 he threw 45.2IP, allowing 25H/6ER, 64K:11BB, finishing 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year award race for his 1.18 ERA/1.34 FIP/0.79 WHIP.

Dismissing that it was an entire fluke, Giles followed that up with 70IP in 2016, allowing 59H/14ER, 87K:25BB - a 1.80 ERA/2.13 FIP/1.20 WHIP. So he has faced 464 batters in the majors, and struck out 151 of them. His 11.19 K/9 rate in 2015 was 13th among relievers with at least 50IP thrown and his 2.13 FIP was 6th.

Giles also fits the bill of the "hard-throwing reliever" the Chronicle thinks the Astros so badly want. Giles throws a 96.5mph four-seamer with an 86mph slider.

He's under team control until 2021, so you can see why the Phillies would be throwing around names like McCullers and Velasquez.

OF COURSE the Phillies want McCullers and Velasquez

So Jerry Crasnick - who seems to have his finger on the pulse of the Astros, as much as anyone can, anyway - has this little nugget:

#Astros and #Phillies recently discussed Ken Giles. #Phillies brought up Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez, sources say.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2015

And so of course they want McCullers/Velasquez. The question I have is, "is that 'and' an 'and' or is it an 'or?'"

Another question might be, "Who is Ken Giles that the Phillies would demand such a return?" He's a 6'2" 205lb 25-year old righty reliever - the Phillies' 7th Round pick in 2011. In 2014 he threw 45.2IP, allowing 25H/6ER, 64K:11BB, finishing 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year award race for his 1.18 ERA/1.34 FIP/0.79 WHIP.

Dismissing that it was an entire fluke, Giles followed that up with 70IP in 2016, allowing 59H/14ER, 87K:25BB - a 1.80 ERA/2.13 FIP/1.20 WHIP. So he has faced 464 batters in the majors, and struck out 151 of them. His 11.19 K/9 rate in 2015 was 13th among relievers with at least 50IP thrown and his 2.13 FIP was 6th.

Giles also fits the bill of the "hard-throwing reliever" the Chronicle thinks the Astros so badly want. Giles throws a 96.5mph four-seamer with an 86mph slider.

He's under team control until 2021, so you can see why the Phillies would be throwing around names like McCullers and Velasquez.

Crasnick went on to add:

#Astros have also been engaged with #Rays on Boxberger and McGee. Houston likes relievers with control years.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2015

and

I've been told that #Astros owner Jim Crane is a big Aroldis Chapman fan. Not sure how that enters into the equation.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2015

That last tweet goes along with what Jon Heyman tweeted on July 31 regarding Crane and Chapman:

word is, houston ownership is interested in chapman. they also are on kimbrel. seek back-end pen help.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 31, 2015

As late as 1:09pm on July 31 the Astros were rumored to be talking to the Reds about Chapman.

Friday Morning Hot Links

*Put in your time-off request now: the Astros and Yankees will play on ESPN at 12:05pm Central on Monday, April 4.

*Jeff Luhnow said that he talked to 12 teams yesterday.

*Dallas Keuchel finished 5th in the BBWAA AL MVP voting. Altuve finished 10th, while Correa got one 8th-place vote.

*Keuchel thanked Brent Strom and Craig Bjornson for refining his game.

*The Masked Marvel wrote up a sweeter farewell to Jonathan Villar than I did.

*The Astros learned a lesson with last year's Rule 5 draft - losing DeShields and Rollins - and are hoping to avoid a repeat. (As a reminder: here's What The Heck Bobby's 2015 Rule 5 primer).

*File this under Well Of Course, but the Astros have checked in on Phillies reliever Ken Giles. Giles came to Philly from Dallas in the Hole Camels trade. (Note: The previous sentence has been stricken because I did not follow the advice of an Internet Commenter and check my facts before I wreck my facts). Basically, if the guy looks decent in the 6th-9th innings, the Astros will have checked in on him.

Tuesday Trade Deadline Update(s)

Newest items at top

*The Astros are "in the ballpark" on Hamels.

*The Royals just traded for former Astros great Ben Zobrist and now they must be stopped.

*Assessing the market for Hamels, Rosenthal tweets the Rangers are "strong," Dodgers and Astros are "involved," Giants "pushing, but may fall short."

*Now that Tulowitzki is gone, the Rockies are shopping Carlos Gonzalez.

*No, the Tigers are not going to trade David Price.

*The Tigers are "actively shopping," according to "a team with pitching to trade."

*For those of you wanting Jeff Samardzija, the White Sox aren't sure if they're ready to punt on this year yet.

*Jayson Stark is reporting that the Phillies want teams interested in Hamels to submit their best offers by tomorrow (Wednesday):

Sources have confirmed that the Astros have made a late push to acquire Hamels since the Phillies ace pitched a no-hitter last Saturday. However, Hamels can block a trade to Houston and the Astros have been given no assurance in recent days that that stance has changed.

Hamels' next scheduled start is Thursday.

*Evan Drellich writes that finding another starting pitcher remains the Astros' top priority, while the Padres and Phillies had scouts watching the Astros' and the Rangers' Double-A teams over the weekend.

*Jon Heyman wrote this morning that the Astros...

a) Seem to be more interested in San Diego's Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross "plus Craig Kimbrel" because of their relative youth...

b) But maybe Jim Crane is the one driving interest in Cole Hamels...

c) But Hamels doesn't seem to be "anxious" about going to Houston.

The one possibility that could put these two sides together even though neither seems anxious to get together would be if Philly finds the best deal in Houston and tells Hamels he must decide whether to accept the Astros or stay in Philadelphia.

From the Office of the County Clerk - G115: Astros @ Phillies

The County Clerk is calling in sick tonight, but here's what you need to know: cHRis Carter is a boss (2x 2-run HR). So is Collin McHugh (7 IP, 1 ER). But the bullpen - tonight Josh Fields and Tony Sipp - was decidedly not. Houston led 5-1 from the mid-3rd to the mid-8th, but as soon as McHugh left, the bullpen imploded with a 5-run Phillies 8th. Astros lose 6-5, and on either side of winning two series against playoff contenders (OAK and TOR), they get swept by the Marlins and Phillies. Mmyep.

From the Office of the County Clerk - G114: Astros @ Phillies

Brad Peacock (3-7, 4.93) vs David Buchanan (5-5, 4.40)

So much for pitching well. Brad Peacock returned from OKC (again) to take the rotation spot of the dear departed Jarred Cosart, and his Astros mates staked him to an immediate 1-0 lead before he took to the mound. But a 5-run Philly 1st, followed by 3 more in the 4th, buried Houston deep in a hole that their sputtering offense had no chance of climbing out of. Phillies beat the Astros again, tonight 10-3, and Houston drops back 20 under at 47-67 overall.

On the Mound:

*Nothing pretty about tonight's appearance for Brad Peacock. After last night's marathon game took its toll on the bullpen, Brad stayed in even after allowing 5 ER in the 1st, and it might have been said that he "settled in" or "battled" after that. But allowing a 3-run home run to Chase Utley with two outs in the 4th erased any extra credit you might have given him. Bradley finished with a 5 IP / 7 H / 8 R / 8 ER / 4 BB / 4 K line.

*Darin Downs appeared again, even after facing 6 batters last night, and turned in a scoreless 6th with a single and a K.

*Mike Foltynewicz didn't pitch last night/this morning, so he drew the final two innings tonight, allowing one run in each inning on 4 total hits, a wild pitch, and 2 K.

At the Plate:

*Moderately more Astros offense tonight, but still not nearly enough after the Phillies erupted in the 1st. Jose Altuve at least got back on the multi-hit wagon, going 2x5 with a R, a RBI, and a SB.

*Gregorio Petit also went multi-hit, going 2x4 with a R and a K.

*Chris Carter had two more hits and finished 2x4.

*Matt Dominguez had Houston's first (and so far only) XBH of the series, doubling and scoring a run to finish 1x4 with 2 K.

*Jake Marisnick was 1x3 with a sac fly RBI.

*Jonathan Singleton went 0x4, but got the other RBI on a fielder's choice.

*Marc Krauss and L.J. Hoes did not start, but each singled in their respective pinch-hit appearances.

Turning Point:

Houston's 1-0 lead from the top of the 1st was to be very short-lived, as Ben Revere led off the bottom of the inning with a single, and Jimmy Rollins followed with a double. Chase Utley flied out, but then Ryan Howard doubled to put the Phillies ahead for good at 2-1. Then they just kept pouring it on, with two walks, a wild pitch, a sac fly, and another single (by Phillies starter Jake Buchanan) making it 5-1 before the inning mercifully ended when Buchanan hustled/TOOTBLAN'd himself into out #3 at second base.

Man of the Match:

Jose Altuve. Still leading the Majors in hits and the AL in batting average and steals, so at least we have that.

Goat of the Game:

Brad Peacock. Flashes of potential interspersed with flashes of awfulness all year.

From the Office of the County Clerk - G113: Astros @ Phillies

Dallas Keuchel (10-7, 2.97) vs Kyle Kendrick (5-11, 4.92)

One qualification to that "pitching well" observation: Even when you pitch well, you still need at least some offense to win. Pitching was no problem for the Astros tonight, as they held the Phillies scoreless from the 2nd through the 14th, and allowed only one run through 14.2. But the Philadelphia staff held Houston to just one run through 15 innings, so they were just a touch better (or Houston's offense was just a touch worse). Phillies beat the Astros 2-1 in 15 innings, and Houston drops to 47-66 overall.

On the Mound:

*Dallas Keuchel is back (but we knew that already). For the third straight start, Kid Keuchy went at least 7 innings and gave up no more than 2 runs. Today only a solo Ryan Howard home run marred his line, and Keuchel turned in a 7 IP / 5 H / 1 R / 1 ER / 1 BB / 5 K evening before being lifted for this novelty of a pinch-hitter.

*Tony Sipp had an interesting 8th, allowing a single and a walk (plus a passed ball by Jason Castro) to put two on with one out in a 1-1 tie game. But Tony got Ryan Howard to ground into a 4-6-3 double play, escaping the frame unscathed.

*Josh Fields had a blessedly boring 9th, retiring all three Phillies in order.

*Darin Downs nearly had a perfect 10th, save for a two-out fielding error by Matt Dominguez that allowed Ben Revere to reach. Revere went nowhere, though, as Jimmy Rollins lined to center for out #3. In the 11th, Downs got a fly out to start, then hit Ryan Howard with a pitch before being lifted.

*Jose Veras got a K and a groundout to end the 11th.

*Then Jake Buchanan got the long-term call. He deserves credit, as well, holding the Phillies to just a single and a walk in the 12th through 14th, but someone finally had to score. Unfortunately for Jake, that someone was not the Astros. Two singles, an IBB, and a sac bunt added up to a two-out run in the 15th, and the yeoman effort of Houston's entire staff went to naught.

At the Plate:

*With a 1-1 game into the 15th inning, obviously there's not much offense of which to speak. No extra base hits, and no Astro had more than one hit to his name.

*Jonathan Singleton got Houston on the board in the 7th with a RBI single, finishing 1x5 with a BB and 3 K.

*Chris Carter was 0x5 with 2 K, but scored that run in the 7th following a leadoff walk.

*It took until the 10th inning, but Jose Altuve kept his four-game mini-streak alive, finishing 1x6 with a SB and a K. His 10th-inning single was also Houston's last hit of the night.

*Robbie Grossman went 1x5 with a BB and a CS.

*Jason Castro was 1x6 with 2 K.

*Besides his inconsequential error, Matt Dominguez went 1x6 with 2 K.

*Marwin Gonzalez was 1x5 with a BB and a K.

*Domingo Santana is still 0-for-MLB, but he did record his first big league walk as a pinch-hitter in the 10th.

Turning Point:

After three scoreless innings (and an AB of his own), Jake Buchanan started the 15th by allowing a single to Grady Sizemore. Ben Revere sac bunted Sizemore up to second, then Buchanan got Jimmy Rollins to fly out to center for out #2 (also holding Revere at second). With first base open, Chase Utley was given an intentional pass, bringing up the only man to create a run for Philadelphia all night - Ryan Howard. On a 1-2 pitch, Howard laced the ball into right field, which Robbie Grossman scooped up on the bounce and fired home. But the throw was offline, and too late anyway, as Ben Revere slid home with the winning run.

Man of the Match:

Dallas Keuchel, and the rest of the Astros pitching staff too.

Goat of the Game:

Jake Marisnick. 0x6 with 2 K, and now 2x17 with Houston.

Nay, the Phillies totally meant to get fleeced in the Pence deal

It's been a busy week for your Constable, between going to a conference, the first six rounds of the draft, and then driving to Alabama, to watch his brother-in-law graduate from college, and back. But the Most Notable story of the weekend has to be this one:

Jose de Jesus Ortiz reported that the Phillies basically accidentally traded Domingo Santana as the player to be named later to the Astros, in addition to Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, and Josh Zeid:

In Spring Training, a Phillies official admitted that Santana wasn't actually supposed to be on the list that was given to the Astros to pick from to satisfy the final piece on August 15, 2011.

Well. CSNPhilly's Jim Salisbury says Phillies GM Ruben Amaro says Nay! that's not true. According to Amaro:

We didn't want to put Santana on the list but we had to get the deal done. There were several prospects we didn't want to part with in that deal but we were trying to acquire the best right-handed hitter on the market and that was the price. I understand we're going to get picked apart because we haven't had success for a couple of years, but this is not true...There was no mistake. If someone said that, they are misinformed because it's absolutely, unequivocally wrong. It's false.

Now Ortiz was wise to couch this language in that it came from A Phillies Official. Say what you want about Ortiz, but there's no way he just makes that crap up on his own - 22 months after the deal is made. So it's a Phillies official who is mistaken - which is great. Why? Because either the Phillies:

(a) Totally screwed up and accidentally let a prospect walk
(b) Gave up way too much for Hunter Pence, whom they traded 367 days later for not much of anything at all
(c) Can't trust their Unnamed Officials.

It's pretty great not being an absolute train-wreck of a franchise anymore. But you know what would be the Greatest Twist of All? If Ed Wade was the Phillies Official...

Breaking: The Possum Has Been Let Loose

I warned you. I said the possum would be set free. Now the Philadelphia Ed Wades are feeling the possum's wrath.

There is a possum watching the Phillies play catch. He climbed to the top of the outdoors fence. Police fear he is rabid.
— Matt Gelb (@magelb) February 19, 2014

Now a photo is available

Playing possum @Phillies Spring Training. #wildlife #SpringTraining #Phillies pic.twitter.com/fiIPHKnOr8
— David Maialetti (@davidmaialetti) February 19, 2014

BREAKING UPDATE:

Possum Update: A single policeman is standing guard in left field of Ashburn Field. Animal control en route. #RabiesTalk
— Matt Gelb (@magelb) February 19, 2014

NO

Possum Watch: He has been captured in a trash can.
— Matt Gelb (@magelb) February 19, 2014

This possum, like the truth, shall be set free and loosed again.

Astros outbid Phillies for Feldman

Interesting note from Buster Olney this morning:

Phillies offered almost $15 million over two years for Scott Feldman and thought they'd have the highest bid -- before HOU gave him 3/$30m.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 8, 2013

Did the Astros overpay? Probably. Will the Astros have to overpay to get free agents to the team in 2014? Probably.

Astros were interested in Dom Brown

Not really "News" per se, but the Astros are reported to have had trade talks with the Phillies involving the OF Charlie Manuel Loves To Hate - Domonic Brown. But they, uh, of course, didn't.

In 492 Major-League PAs, Brown has hit .236/.315/.388 for the Phillies. In seven minor-league seasons, however, Brown posted a .296/.373/.461 line.

Phillies are doing something with Wilton Lopez

Jim Salisbury, the Phillies Insider at CSN Philly, says the Phillies are in "serious talks" with the Astros to acquire Wilton Lopez. Ken Rosenthal has confirmed Salisbury's report. Salisbury says Lopez would be the set-up man for Papelbon.

Lopez was selected off waivers by Ed Wade from the Padres in 2009, and has spent his entire Major-League career with the Astros. From 2010-2012, Lopez has posted a 2.64 ERA / 1.13 WHIP, walking just 31 of the 820 batters he has faced over those three season. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

Brian Smith reminds us that, in order to give up a guy under team control for three seasons, Luhnow would want major- and minor-league talent in return.

Jon Heyman basically says the deal is done, both sides are just finalizing prospects. Heyman says those prospects will be "near-ML ready."

Update: Luhnow says there is "nothing to report" regarding the trade.

Updated Update: McTaggart has "a baseball source" who says the deal is being finalized. The Philadelphia Inquirer's  Bob Brookover says that Lopez is in Philadelphia for a physical.

11:06am: The New Jersey Star-Ledger report indicates that there is one prospect coming back in the deal.

11:36am: CBS Philly says there are "minor-leaguers," plural, going to Houston.

1:02pm: via Todd Zolecki, the Phillies' prospects have been agreed upon.

1:26pm: Prospect Insider says the deal is pending the physical, with two players going to Houston.

1:41pm: ESPN's Kiley McDaniel says that Lopez's physical "isn't a slam dunk," and other teams have been scared about Lopez's medical reports. Remember that back in July/August, Lopez had some elbow tightness and was "unavailable" for a period of time. Last March, Lopez also had forearm issues.And in April 2011, Lopez had neuritis in his pitching elbow.

1:50pm: CSNPhilly says:
A source said they would get two players who have played in the upper levels of the minors if the deal is finalized. That's a decent-sized "if," given Lopez's medical history. But it does look like there are two higher-level minor-leaguers in the deal, which could include 22-year old catcher Sebastian Valle.

Astros not the only team kicking Berkman's tires

I'm already tired of this. Mark Berman talked to Lance Berkman (no relation) who said that a number of teams were checking in on Berkman. Among the teams not named "Astros:" Rays, Red Sox, and Phillies.

If Berkman is interested in staying close to home, then the Astros are obviously in the lead. If he's interested in winning, then obviously any of the other three teams are going to be better bets for Berkman (how's that for alliteration). If it turns into a bidding war, I'd expect the Astros to be out, but who the hell knows?