Saturday Morning Hot Links

*Random 2017 Astros Fact of the Day:

14.9% of the fly balls Astros relievers allowed left the yard, 3rd-worst in the Majors, worst in the AL.

*I teach two subjects: two sections of AP US History and four of regular US History. I have one baseball (Rangers, of course) super-fan in one of my AP classes that just happens to coincide with lunch and, after the slump the Astros went through in August, he was expressing doubts about the 2017 Astros' chances. I flippantly said that, if the Astros won the World Series, I'd buy them pizza. One of them told my other AP class, and they wanted in, too. So I said okay, if the Astros win the World Series, I'd buy both AP classes pizza.

Told my AP US History students I’d buy them pizza if the @Astros won the World Series. So that’ll be $54, guys. pic.twitter.com/EWDbcsKn68

— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) November 10, 2017

A smart-ass objection I often heard on Twitter:

1. Little Caesar's? Eww.

Response A: You can piss right off. $5 pizzas are right in my budget. I'M A PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHER DADGUMMIT, I CAN'T AFFORD TO BUY YOUR FREAKING ARTISANAL WOOD-FIRED PIZZA FULL OF FINE CURED MEATS AND CHEESES FOR 40 HIGH SCHOOL JUNIORS, MUCH LESS THE 85 OTHER STUDENTS WHOSE PARTY IS COMING BETWEEN NOW AND CHRISTMAS BREAK.

Response B: I had to find a place that would have them ready to pick up at 10:30, so I could be back to school in time for class.

Response C: One of the students who received said pizza works at the Little Caesar's store from which I ordered them.

Ah but that tweet lead to this:

Got venmo?

— Tyler White (@twhite409) November 10, 2017

Which led to this:

Well since you've already bought it set up the account and they can have another pizza day on me #gostros https://t.co/0LQTLArATX

— Tyler White (@twhite409) November 11, 2017

Update - 5:25am: I created the Venmo account and will wait to see what happens. I've never had a bad thing to say about Tyler White, and even the gesture makes this one of the coolest things to ever happen. Tyler White is a Real G.

Update - 8:51am: He did it.

All The Shoutouts to Tyler White. My students are going to flip when I tell them. Solid all around.

*In a dramatically less feel-good of a story, the Astros/Nationals and the contractors who built their brand new $152m Spring Training facility are having issues paying sub-contractors for their work. The Astros and Nationals are blaming the four major contractors for not paying the local sub-contractors for their work. The sub-contractors are having trouble keeping employees, bidding for other jobs and, in some cases, keeping their homes. Former lawyer Craig Calcaterra has a good rundown on who is to blame.

*Jeff Blogwell wrote about the Astros' lefty situation.

*Peter Gammons talked to a GM who compared Alex Bregman to Paul Molitor, and that is just fine by me.

*ESPN's Howard Bryant has a good retrospective of the 2017 baseball season.

*Paul Quinn College turned its football field into an organic farm, and it changed the community.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*Approximately three minutes after I fell asleep the Astros got a two-run home run from Cameron Maybin to give Justin Verlander his first W as an Astro (the first of about 40 wins as an Astro, methinks) and beat the Mariners 3-1. The Astros are 85-53. The win eclipsed the Astros' 2016 win total, one shy of their 2015 win total. The Angels and the Indians won their 13th game in a row because the Indians can't lose. Lead on the division is still 13.5 games, and three games on Cleveland.  There are 24 games remaining.

*Hinch:
We continue to add to the script that anybody on this team can really do something special for us. 

*Justin Verlander threw 6IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:1BB - his 10th straight start of 6+ innings.

*Verlander:
I think the only thing I can compare it to is Opening Day kind of nerves: The unknown. Don't really want to let everyone down. New team. But these guys have made the process pretty easy on me so far fitting in and making me feel right at home as quickly as possible.

*Verlander knew that his final pitch to Haniger would be his last of the night. The result? A 99mph fastball.
I was really hoping to hit 100 there. Didn't quite get it. Honestly, just a good kind of ending to the night and to have Cam step up that next inning and hit a huge home run and for the bullpen to come in and shut it down, this is how you win tight ballgames. We had been no-hit to that point and we were still able to win this game. These are the types of games you can see in the playoffs. We scored a run without a hit. Those are the type of things that matter.

*ESPN's David Schoenfield says Verlander is just what the Astros needed and crowned him G1 ALDS starter. I hope you don't mind but I'm not going to link to every article about Verlander's fiancee.

*Joe Musgrove threw 2IP, 1H/0ER, 1K:0BB and opponents are hitting .176/.239/.259 against him since he transitioned to the bullpen.

*Ken Giles struck out the side last night for the second night in a row. Seattle has sent six batters to face Giles this series, and all six have walked back to the dugout shaking their damn heads. He hasn't allowed a run since August 10 - a span of 10 appearances. Since the All-Star Break, Giles: 22.1IP, 10H/2ER, 36K:5BB. Ridiculous.

*Carlos Correa and Cameron Maybin had the only hits, with Maybin's 7th inning two-run home run providing the margin of victory.

*The last time the Astros won a game while getting two (or fewer, I guess) hits: May 1, 2016 at Oakland. They drew 7+ walks for the 8th time of the season and are 6-2 in those games.

*Carlos Beltran - whose time in the outfield is almost certainly at a close - is over the moon about Verlander:
I faced him many, many times and he's one of the toughest pitchers in the game. He challenges hitters. He's a veteran guy, a veteran presence in the clubhouse with a lot of younger guys here. He's a leader. He works hard and based off what I have heard from other players that have called about him, it's all positive. I think the franchise should be excited to add a guy like that and we are excited.

In his career, Beltran was 1x16 with 5K:0BB against Verlander. His .125 OPS against Verlander is the lowest against any pitcher Beltran faced more than 15 times.

*Click here to read the details about Friday-Saturday's Lima Time Time Bozoathon for Harvey Relief.

*Lance McCullers makes his first start since July tonight at 9:10pm. McCullers:
You know as a pitcher there are certain things you need to work on to be the guy you want to be, to be the guy I was when I was a first-half All-Star...I know what I have to do to be that, and that's what I'm going to be working on. I'm not going to say what it is, because then the other team will be looking for it. But there are things I will be consciously working on, and I expect myself to be very good for this club.

*Evan Gattis will get a rehab start for G1 of Quad Cities' best-of-three playoff series tonight. Michael Feliz will pitch the first inning.

*As Hurricane Irma barrels towards Puerto Rico, Carlos Correa and other MLBers are thinking about their families and homes.

*It's paywalled, but Ken Rosenthal wrote about the Astros/Luhnow's place in the ongoing Scouts v. Data argument.

*ESPN's Dave Fleming wrote about the Astros monumental two-day/three-game home series against the Mets.

*The Washington Post's Neil Greenberg makes the case for the 2017 Astros offense going alongside Murderers' Row.

*Mike Lupica writes that there's nothing better than MLB's regular season.

*For all the crap I give Peter Gammons, he really is an excellent writer and he has a wonderful opening in his latest blog post that intertwines the Matisse Chapel, the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, George Springer and the 2017 Astros.

*Former Astros Great Dennis Sarfate set the Japanese saves record.

*Straight up bombshell in the New York Times yesterday as they published a detailed report accusing the Red Sox of using an Apple Watch to steal signs against the Yankees. Michael Schmidt:
The Yankees, who had long been suspicious of the Red Sox' stealing catchers' signs in Fenway Park, contended the video showed a member of the Red Sox training staff looking at his Apple Watch in the dugout. The trainer then relayed a message to other players in the dugout, who, in turn, would signal teammates on the field about the type of pitch that was about to be thrown, according to people familiar with the case. 

Saturday Morning Hot Links

And so, without George Springer, Carlos Correa, or Jose Altuve in the lineup, the Astros put up 16 on Toronto. Because of course. The Astros are 70-39. Seattle won again, so the lead is still 15 games. There are 53 games remaining.

*The Astros are 3-2 against the Blue Jays this season, but have outscored them 53-24 in those five games. Houston has scored 12+ runs in a game eleven times this season - three of them have come against the Blue Jays.

*Having scored seven runs in their previous three games, Houston scored nine runs in the 4th inning, the 3rd time this season they've had a 9+ run inning. They've had 21 innings of scoring 5+ runs or more. A season-high 15 batters came to the plate in the 4th. Their 6th 18+ hit game of the season is a franchise record.

*The Astros are the only AL team that has yet to endure at least a four-game losing streak.

*Home runs, last night:
-Yuli Gurriel (14)
-Alex Bregman (13)
-Marwin (20)
-Tyler White
-Tyler White

White was 4x5 with two home runs and 5RBI. White:
Everyone was swinging the bat. We were all seeing good pitches to hit and putting good swings on them. That's all you can do. We caught a few barrels and hit a few holes. 

Bregman:
Everybody is fired up. We've done that a couple times this year. It's just a blast. Everyone is trying to put together quality at-bats and pass the torch to the next guy.

*McTaggart notes that Yulieski Gurriel tied Hunter Pence's franchise record of 30 doubles by a rookie.

*The Astros got ten 2-out RBIs, giving them 252 2-out RBIs on the season. The Astros have scored 265 runs with two outs this season.

2-out runs, American League:

Houston: 265
Arlington: 209
Baltimore: 202
Boston: 197
Tampa Bay: 197
Detroit: 194
Yankees: 193
Cleveland: 193
Minnesota: 183
Toronto: 181
White Sox: 178
Seattle: 178
Kansas City: 170
Anaheim: 166
Oakland: 155

So yeah, the Astros have scored 56 more runs - with two outs - than the next-highest run total in the American League.

*Brad Peacock took it on the chin, allowing 9H/7ER, 6K:2BB. Some numbers:
-Peacock had allowed two home runs all season long, and allowed three last night.
-Peacock had allowed 7ER in 26IP across five appearances in July, and allowed 7ER last night.
-He became the 3rd SP in franchise history to allow 7ER and record a win (Greg Swindell - 1993; J.R. Richard - 1975)

*Joe Musgrove's last five appearances: 9IP, 6H/1ER, 10K:1BB.

*James Hoyt threw a perfect inning in the 9th.

*Former Astros Great Nori Aoki got a standing ovation last night.

*The Astros called up J.D. Davis from Fresno, replacing A.J. Reed (who went 0x6 in his short stint with the Astros). In 16 games with Fresno, Davis hit .295/.370/.623 with 5HR.

*Correa will swing a bat next week, putting him a week ahead of his recovery timeline. Correa:
Everything the doctor told me, he's really impressed with the way I've been progressing and I'm way ahead of schedule. I'm going to swing the bat a week and a half earlier than I was supposed to. I'm very happy about that. 

*Evan Gattis took the back end of Corey Dickerson's Thursday night swing to the back of the head, and says he has a concussion.

*FanGraphs: Jose Altuve's historic July and his MVP momentum.

*Jayson Stark says making a trade is harder than you think and that the Astros will have to "mash and bash" their way through the postseason, which he predicts will feature Washington vs. Houston.

*If the Astros want to make that big pitching acquisition, Justin Verlander reportedly cleared waivers and the Tigers can now trade him to any team.

*Peter Gammons wonders if the 2017 Dodgers are the 1998 Astros. And on the Trade Deadline That Wasn't, he mentions "Orioles people" who said that the Astros' offer for Zach Britton was "insulting." Gammons has a warning for the Astros:
The windows don't stay open as long as your laptops tell you

*1st Round pick J.B. Bukauskas made his pro debut, throwing 4IP, 3H/0ER, 3K:1BB in an 11-1 win over the GCL Nationals.

*Corpus' Franklin Perez retired 12 of the last 15 batters he faced, throwing 5IP, 7H/2R (1ER), 3K:0BB in a 3-2 win over Frisco. Riley Ferrell got his first save at Double-A, striking out three in 1.1IP.

*Here's a solid Hunter Atkins piece on the woman who sleeps across from Minute Maid Park.

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion Tyler White is the GOAT solely on this. pic.twitter.com/FNZPoJ3zc7

— White & Aoki GOATs (@Transniqqa) August 4, 2017

What is it about Jose Quintana?

Of course the Astros are looking for a frontline starter. It has emerged in the last 24 hours that the Astros inquired about the White Sox' Jose Quintana. The White Sox asking price? Joe Musgrove, Francis Martes, and Kyle Tucker.

Let's run this down and see what we can see. We'll start with the Astros:

Joe Musgrove: After an excellent half-season in the minors that earned him a #32 prospect ranking, Musgrove was called up to Houston for the August 2 game against the Blue Jays - who drafted him in the 1st Round of the 2011 draft - and held them to one hit, striking out eight, in 4.1IP. In his next outing five days later, he held the Ramgers to one run in 7IP. Next up were the Blue Jays, whom he held to 6H/2ER, 7K:1BB. So after three Major-League appearances Musgrove sat at 18.1IP, 12H/3R (2ER), 21K:2BB. Unbelievable, yeah?

Yeah. He gave up eight earned runs in 5.1IP at Baltimore, which ended the "maybe he's the greatest pitcher who ever lived" talk. Musgrove ended the season with a 4.06 ERA/1.21 WHIP. He would strikeout 34 batters in the next 33.2IP, walking 14.

Francis Martes (aka Frankie Tuesday) is the Astros #1 prospect, according to MLBPipeline.com. He spent the Arizona Fall League working on his changeup, which should give him an additional weapon in his arsenal. The 21-year old RHP spent 2016 in Corpus. He threw 125.1IP with 131K:47BB, a 3.30 ERA/1.21 WHIP.

Kyle Tucker is the #2 Astros prospect, according to the aforementioned MLBPipeline prospect list. He was the Astros 2nd pick (5th overall, after Alex Bregman) in the 2015 draft. In 101 games at Quad Cities, where he was 2.5 years younger than his competition, Tucker hit .276/.348/.402. When he got promoted to Coors Light (Lancaster), he hit .339/.435/.661 in an admittedly small sample of 16 games. He struck out six times and walked ten times in those games.

How does that compare to the White Sox' Jose Quintana? Quintana will be 28 next month. Musgrove turned 24 last week. In five seasons - the last four of which have been seasons of 32+ starts of 200+ IP - Quintana has a 3.41 ERA/1.24 WHIP. His ERA+ is 118. In 2016 Quintana ranked #10 among qualified starters with a 4.8 fWAR, yet his 3.20 ERA outperformed his 3.56 FIP/4.03 xFIP. That said, he is due just $14.8m in 2017 ($6m) and 2018 ($8.8m) with two team options in 2019 and 2020 worth $10.5m in each season with a $1m buyout in each season. That is $36.8m over the next four seasons - $13.2m less than Josh Reddick over the same amount of time - not a lot of money for a front-line starter.

The 2nd-Most Similar pitcher to Quintana is none other than Dallas Keuchel. 5th is Chris Archer. Will the 28-year old pitcher be worth more than Musgrove and Martes (and outfielder Kyle Tucker)? I don't know. In his five seasons in the Majors, Quintana has been worth a total of 19.7 fWAR - 12th among qualified pitchers in that span - more than Stephen Strasburg, more than Jake Arrieta, more than Yu Darvish, more - of course - than Dallas Keuchel (whose 2012-early 2014 struggles are well-documented.)

So the question is: Do you trade two potentially Really Good Pitchers and one Really Good Outfielder for One Established Really Good Pitcher? Or do you hang on to your assets - your #1 and #2 prospects plus a guy in Musgrove who has some MLB experience and performed pretty well, a couple of rough starts aside? It's not an easy decision.

Given the haul the White Sox have received from the trades of Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, there's no reason for them to not make the ask that Gammons leaked. Given their ask, there's no reason for the Astros to make the trade. Given the quality of pitcher Quintana is, they're justified in their ask. Given the promise of the three players in question, the Astros are justified in their refusal. Where the two teams go from here is up in the air. I can see the Astros revisiting this trade proposal in mid-July in regards to the standings and the performances of each player with another 90 games under their belts.

*Apologies to those expecting a clear-cut Yea or Nay. 

Saturday Morning Hot Links

*The Batguy wrote up a blurb on the Astros signing Yulieski Gurriel/Gourriel (UPDATE: It's "Gurriel.") We'll have more in-depth analysis once I can put the pieces of my brain back together (and get back from our anniversary trip). Meanwhile, the links below will address the reaction to Gurriel.

*The Astros beat the Rangers last night, 7-3. The Cubs beat the Rangers, the Angels beat the White Sox, the A's beat the Blue Jays. So the division looks like this:

West Natchitoches: -
Houston: -4.5
Seattle: -8.5
Oakland: -14.5
Anaheim: -15.5

WC1 (Boston): -2
WC2 (Toronto): -1

*FanGraphs now gives the Astros a 41.3% chance of winning the division (Ramgers at 53.8%) with a 21.3% chance of winning a Wild Card spot (those odds are currently being dominated by Boston and Toronto). But it's a 62.6% chance of playing in mid-October.

*FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 29% chance of winning the division (Rangers at 66%) but with a 52% chance of making the playoffs.

*BP gives the Astros a 25.6% chance of winning the division and a 52.1% chance of making the playoffs.

*When will you learn to listen to me?

Marisnick gets two hits tonight

— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) July 16, 2016

*Watch Carlos Correa score from 2nd on a wild pitch.

That's just not something you see every day. pic.twitter.com/PFSa8ypACZ

— Houston Astros (@astros) July 16, 2016

*Scott Boras has a good point about why Altuve is hitting more home runs (countering noted asshat Rob Dibble's idiotic comments over the Break about juicing).

*Brian T. Smith is at it again, talkin' 'bout PAYROLL.
Heck, when news unexpectedly broke Friday that your once-insultingly cheap local nine had locked down the 32-year old Cuban infielder via a reported five-year, $47.5 million deal, Twitter was initially confused about Gurriel's actual age and how to spell his last name...

and your closing line:
A tip of the cap to Crane for finally paying to play the modern game.

*FanGraphs' August Faberstrom, on Gurriel:
Try and tell a contending club it's got too many good players. They'll find some room.

*Baseball America's Ben Badler, on Gurriel in February 2015. There's a pretty detailed scouting report, so click the link to read the whole thing:
Gurriel has all the attributes to be an above-average offensive player. 

*The Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright projected Gurriel to hit .283/.330/.458.

*ESPN (Insider) Chris Crawford says Astros fans should be "excited, if not overjoyed" by the Gurriel signing.

*Alex Bregman is not focused on how the Gurriel signing will affect him. Bregman:
I think it's a good move. The Astros got a guy who they think can help them win, and that's all I want to do. I just want to win with the Astros...I'm just focused on playing baseball here, getting better and finding my way up there. I'm worried strictly about my performance and trying to find ways to win games with the Grizzlies. 

*Peter Gammons says not to be surprised if the Astros make a run at Chris Archer, but not for Alex Bregman.

*

Do @Astros have room for both Gurriel and Bregman? Child, please. They're 30th in OPS in CF, 28th at 1B, 24th at DH, 23rd at 3B, 12th in LF.

— Richard Justice (@richardjustice) July 16, 2016

*ZIPS projects Carlos Correa to be an 8+ WAR player for the next five years.

*A.J. Hinch is always evaluatin'.

*FanGraphs' Corinne Landrey wrote on the resurgence of Ken Giles:
It's an unavoidable reality that first impressions matter and affect the way we view those around us. The perils of first impressions may have had no bigger victim this season than Ken Giles.

Sunday Morning Hot Links

*A.J. Hinch thought that, with two strikes, Michael Feliz could put David Ortiz away. He couldn't. Loss.
Yeah, I think it's easy now [to second guess]. You walk a guy with two strikes and the odds are still in your favor, the percentages are still in your favor that things are going to go fine. If you'd like to replay it, I'd happily walk him, sure. 

*Boston manager John Farrell was surprised Hinch didn't walk Ortiz:
I think we were a little surprised that they wouldn't (walk him). They might look to expand the strike zone, and if they walk him they have the right-hander on deck.

*The Astros made sure that SI could all breathless and sweaty about Ortiz.

*Every time Ortiz got to second base Correa asked him why he was retiring.

*Carlos Gomez was given a "mental and physical day" off yesterday. Gomez:
It's a tough moment right now, but I have confidence and believe in myself that I'm better than that. I don't know what's wrong with me right now.

*The editor of the Houston Chronicle apologized for the way Brian T. Smith quoted Gomez in that one article:
With regards to quoting Carlos Gomez: We sincerely apologize for any offense that was taken. Our writers are encouraged to AP style rules...I reviewed the rules myself after this arose and found the guidelines on quotes to be less than adequate for a community like ours, full of immigrants from all over the world, and for whom English is often a second language.

You know BTS: always been a slave to them AP Style Guidelines...

*Gomez told ESPN Radio that he felt Smith quoted him the way he did in order to ridicule him.

*George Springer is loving playing near home.

*Ken Giles is pitching with more confidence.
The hard work is paying off now and I have more confidence in my mechanics now. They're more in tune, and I'm going to keep on doing what I'm doing.

*Giles also talked about how not to talk to a reliever.
You can't tell someone he got his ass kicked. It's the worst thing you can possibly say to somebody, especially a young guy. There's no way he should feel he got demolished because he's not good enough. You should never, ever think that way.

*Alex Bregman felt comfortable getting his first start at third base.
I feel like I'll be very comfortable here really soon - really, really soon. I'm pretty comfortable there already, but I feel like in a few days I'll be very comfortable there. 

Luhnow emphasized that they didn't want to promote Bregman to Double-A AND have him get used to another position:
We didn't want him to switch positions or have him try a new position while he was getting accustomed to a higher level. It's pretty clear he's been able to fit in well at that level offensively, and we figured now's a good time to at least try out some alternatives.

*Joe Musgrove's Triple-A debut: 5IP, 5H/1ER, 5K:2BB.

*MLB.com's latest mock draft is out, and has the Astros looking at high school arms like Ian Anderson out of Clifton Park, NY.

*Washington Post: How Stephen Strasburg's extension came to be.

*Peter Gammons got salty early on a Sunday:

NL scout:"Foltynewicz command improved twofold in a year." Shut out KC. Sat 96.8-98.4. Remind us why Astros traded him...

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) May 15, 2016

Peter Gammons' annual poll

I'll let Peter Gammons introduce his annual exercise here:

In the closing days of March annually, I poll general managers, scouts, managers and other baseball sages on a number of spring training observations. The first was: “Were there any young players you watched and said, ‘this guy has a chance to be a star?’”

Not to give anything away, but Carlos Correa came in #1. Gammons:
Scary skills, highly intelligent, work ethic off the scales, 6-3, but putting him in Lancaster may create bad hitting habits that set him back.

I'll disagree with that last part. What we've seen is that Luhnow simply doesn't believe in skipping levels. Also, if you recall our posts from last season, the Astros seem to be interested in (and this is my speculation) making sure their top prospects make it to all the minor-league affiliates and, by extension, their fan bases. See Appel, Mark; Springer, George, and Singleton, Jon (remember when he was reinstated after the 50-game suspension, he started at Quad Cities).

There is an interesting note on Byron Buxton:
One very good evaluator thinks “George Springer’s best six years will be better than Buxton’s six best but Buxton’s career may be 15 years of excellence.”

On tanking, Buster Olney, and the Astros

Buster Olney started it. In his (Insider-Only) blog post for ESPN yesterday in which the headline read "Astros' season highlights incentive to tank," Olney took the Astros task for not fielding a competitive team and how it's destroying the very fabric of baseball. Give him credit, because back in March he was trumpeting the exact same thing (you can read our thoughts on that piece here).

The interesting thing is that, once again, Olney is the one with the problem. A rival official told Olney, "They're going to be good because they're getting access to the best talent and Luhnow is a really smart guy." (emphasis Olney's) Olney admits, "In the minds of many rival evaluators - many - the Astros are playing baseball's current system to perfection."

Back in his March hand-wringing, Olney said, "Privately, rival executives really like what the Astros are doing, in stripping down the organization and rebuilding from the ground up."

Even Bud Selig, who is clearly the devil, told Brian Smith:
"I do trust the organization. Look, every organization goes through certain phases. They have chosen the path with some very qualified people. And the only way you can really build a solid organization, a solid team, is through a very productive farm system. And I think they're doing it the right way. There's no question in my mind."


Olney, typically, is providing the knee-jerk reactionary's viewpoint. He even mentions "an evaluator" who admired that the NBA instituted a lottery system to prevent rewarding teams from losing, as though MLB and the NBA are interchangeable parts. 

Olney says that the Astros could have spent more money in an effort to be competitive and chose not to do so and "what should scare Major League Baseball" is that the Astros are admired for their strategy. "Fans are paying major league prices to watch major league competition...that fan is not buying a ticket because he knows Houston is positioned to pick NC State's Carlos Rodon in next June's draft."

Here's where Olney is missing the point: No, fans aren't exactly lining up to get into Minute Maid Park. Attendance is roughly half of what it was in 2004. And - if they're even able to watch Astros games on CSN Houston - they're not doing so (while fully realizing that Nielsen ratings don't count those of us watching on Extra Innings, MLB.TV, or even fans in Houston using an IP masking service watching MLB.TV). A 0.0 rating?

Because it's not fun for people who don't follow the Astros on a regular basis to give it any thought, Olney stops his argument short of following a logical line: That there is no guarantee to what the Astros' situation is, and there is the possibility that the Astros are slowly, methodically, being destroyed. It's hard to look at attendance at Minute Maid Park, whole sections of which are representative of the television ratings (while my personal opinions of tv ratings are well-documented) and say that the Astros are reaping the benefits of a broken system.

What if Jon Singleton doesn't put it together? What if George Springer and Chris Carter combine to strike out Seventabilly times in 2014? What if Jordan Lyles can't figure it out for more than three starts at a time? Drafting in baseball is not like the lottery system in the NBA. An NBA lottery pick - more often than not - means there is an impact on the team within six months. We'll be lucky to see Carlos Correa, who was drafted fifteen months ago, by 2016.

And besides, if/when the Astros start winning again, how long will it take for fans to start returning to Minute Maid Park? Two years? Three? And if you think that DirecTV and UVerse didn't see that the Astros/Indians game drew a 0.0, and are now tripping over themselves to get CSN Houston on board for $3/subscriber....

Olney is short-sighted, discounting the immense risk that the Astros are taking. The Astros are not providing a blueprint for teams that want to save a few bucks and get a higher draft pick, as Olney alleges. The Marlins? you ask. Hell no. Jeffrey Loria goes out of his way to find new strategies for screwing over his team, fanbase, and probably the government, too.

But of course, like crows attracted to shiny things, here came Peter Gammons:

Houston went 6-30 vs. Texas and Oakland, made $, gets the 1st pick with the largest signing pool...in top 5 market. Reward losing.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) September 25, 2013

And then, not to be outdone by a ridiculously tired narrative, Jayson Stark:

Wins vs #Astros by AL wild card contenders: Rangers 16, Indians 6, Rays 5. Astros vs those teams: 5-27. Astros Factor hanging over this race
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) September 25, 2013

I guess we can forget that the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to a four-year $52m deal this past off-season, and have a $75.5m payroll to go 65-97 (closer to the Astros than they are the Angels in the standings), and are 24-48 against the NL Central, the division that will have three playoff teams. Oh, yes, the Astros are 25-50 against the AL West, meaning that the Astros and Cubs have the same inter-division winning percentage. Cubs Factor?

Sure, the Rangers are helped by beating the Astros 16 out of 18 games. But they're in a Wild Card race in part because they're 13-19 against the AL Central. Cleveland is in line for a playoff berth in large part because they're 16-2 against the White Sox. Atlanta is 26-12 against the Marlins and Nationals.

Bad teams all end up in the same place - at home in October. Good teams beat those bad teams. It's how it works. The Astros are bad. Really bad. We're going to see video clips of the Blocked Bunt and Butt-Slide for years to come. But to hammer the Astros, link them to Pete Rose and Joe Jackson (As Olney did in March), and to maintain this tired TEH ASTORS narrative is as reckless as CSN Houston playing chicken with 60% of televisions in the Houston area. The real damage the Astros are doing is to their own franchise, it has nothing to do with the rest of Major League Baseball or Buster Olney.

Peter Gammons apologizes

Last night Peter Gammons slammed Jim Crane for being among the owners who are trying to get rid of pension plans for non-uniformed personnel.

If owners like Glass and Crane win their vile battle to eliminate benefits for employees, part of Selig's legacy will be forever Koched.

But today he found out that Crane wasn't one of those owners.

MLB officials insist Jim Crane is absolutely not among leaders to eliminate pensions of non-uniformed personnel. So he gets apology.

Gammons continued:

And on support that in Jeff Luhnow, et al, he has brought in the right people to rebuild a crumbling organization


Good job all around, everybody. Gammons for apologizing, Crane for not trying to cut people's pensions. 

Nice About-Face, Gammons

(Not Hank) Aaron wrote yesterday about Peter Gammons' rare set of tweets that weren't keyed-in from his pocket where he blasted the Astros.

To put all of his tweets from the other night into one paragraph, it would read like this:

If I'm an ALE or ALC owner, Houston's plan to have no payroll, lose,get the 1-2 pick 4 years in a row and still steal revenue-sharing $ may guarantee 3 teams in the AL West win 90 games and make the playoffs, and spit on the integrity of the sport. Fellow big market teams who have payrolls under $40M should 1.not get revenue-sharing and 2. be out of the protected pick business. Rewarding trying to lose is wrong

Well, that's interesting. Because (and a captip to Appy Astros for the link) not 15 months ago was Gammons exalting the now-rival Oakland A's for "being creative" and, gasp, even:

We get what Billy Beane has to do. He has to hope that in 2014 or 2015 the Athletics have moved to a new park in San Jose. That is why he's trading assets like Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey to get 10 players with less than one year service time, players that will be with the Athletics if and when they move and to be the foundation of a team constructed so that the ballpark and competitiveness will coincide as happened perfectly, for instance, when the Indians moved into what then was called Jacobs Field.

Hold the phone. Trading "assets" for lots of young players so that they'll be the core of the team when they're ready to compete? What a novel concept!

Gammons holds up the Rays as a shining example of how a team should be run given the constraints of revenue and division strength. Remember when the Rays were able to draft David Price, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson (all mentioned specifically by Gammons)?

Hellickson was drafted in 2005. Evan Longoria in 2006. David Price and Matt Moore in 2007. Gammons realizes that, in those three years, the Rays totaled 194 wins, right?

This is how it works, Gammons. And you can't change what you find Acceptable and Proper for a baseball team in less than a year and a half.

Integrity of the Game

I have heard from too many places lately that the Astros rebuilding plan is an affront to the integrity of the game, most recently in a series of tweets from Peter Gammons and a quote from Scott Boras. Part of this criticism is usually that the Astros losing will guarantee 3 teams from the AL West, which is unfair to the teams in AL Central and Al East. The poor babies. Peter Gammons put it this way:

If I'm an ALE or ALC owner, Houston's plan to have no payroll, lose,get the 1-2 pick 4 years in a row and still steal revenue-sharing $--
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) March 19, 2013

may guarantee 3 teams in the AL West win 90 games and make the playoffs, and spit on the integrity of the sport.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) March 19, 2013

Is this true though? Does having a bad team in the division guarantee that 3 teams will make the playoffs?

You all might remember that the Astros lost 107 games last year. The Cubs lost 101. Despite having two punching bags, only the Reds and Cardinals made the playoffs from the NL Central, with the Braves taking the first Wild Card. So obviously its not an absolute guarantee. As last year was the first year there were two Wild Cards, that is our only actual example. That could have been an outlier, so I looked back at every season since baseball went to the unbalanced schedule in 2001.

Since then, there have been 16 instances when a division featured a team that lost 100 games or more. Only the 2006 AL Central would have placed three teams in the playoffs under the current format. And that year, the Royals were hardly historically bad, as they only lost 100 games. The 2003 AL Central with the 119 loss Tigers would not have produced either Wild Card. The 2004 NL West, with the 111 loss Diamondbacks, would have added the Giants as the second Wild Card, but would not have had both. The 106 loss Brewers would not have produced either Wild Card in the 2002 NL Central. And the NL Central in 2011 would still have placed only two teams, despite the 106 loss Astros.

Clearly, having a bad team, even a historically bad team like the 2004 D-Backs or 2003 Tigers, doesn't guarantee 3 teams in the playoffs from one division. If three teams from the AL West make it this year, it will be because the other competitors didn't do enough to keep them out. They will have no one to blame but themselves. Blaming the Astros and whining about the "integrity of the sport" is just lazy.

Cardinals interested in Harrell/Norris

Peter Gammons tweeted this morning that the Cardinals are interested in both a shortstop and a pitcher. He specifically mentioned Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris.

This would be Luhnow's Grudge Trade - a chance to match wits against John Mozeliak ("So I clearly cannot drink from.the cup in front of me"). If the Astros can get a Shelby Miller, would you do it?

The Astros are not the Marlins

With all due respect to Peter Gammons, who has been honored by the Hall of Fame for excellence in baseball journalism (which, incidentally, does not make him a "Hall of Famer"), he is slightly full of crap.

Gammons tweeted early this morning that:
It's awfully hard for Bud Selig to come down on the Marlins for slashing payroll when the Astros are at $21M.

There's your typical national journalist, who simply looks at numbers, and not the reason behind them. The Marlins are a totally different animal than the Astros. How so?

1. "Slashing payroll?" Come on.

The Astros have not slashed payroll. They cleared out dead weight. 

In 2010, the Astros' payroll was $93.2m. In 2011 it was $71.1m. In 2012, they closed the season at $37.7m. That's a decline of 59.5%, before you get into the possibilities of 2013's payroll (which looks to be in the $25-30m range). But you look at the salaries of whom they were ridding themselves: Brett Myers' $11m contract. Wandy Rodriguez's $34m contract. Brandon Lyon's $5.5m. No more Carlos Lee at $18.5m per year. Just stopping there represents an impressive amount of money. Yet when each were traded, the response was either "It's about time," or "Luhnow is a genius."

Does Gammons want the Astros to replace all that payroll, especially after his September 2012 column in which he wrote:
What Crane, Postolos and Luhnow inherited was a team that was in the World Series seven years ago but was drained of talent because former owner Drayton McLane did not invest in the Draft.

You simply cannot retroactively blast the Astros for doing what everyone agreed should have been done at least three years earlier.

The Marlins have a special case. They dumped $181m in contracts in one day. That's not slashing payroll, that's 1929 on Wall Street. Their Opening day payroll in 2012 was $107.7m. Baseball-Reference estimates their payroll in 2013 to be $45m - a 58.8% decline in three baseball months.

Nobody wrote about how the Astros' rebuilding plan was "a baseball tragedy" as Jeff Passan did regarding the Marlins. Nobody wrote about the Astros disgracing baseball, as Time Magazine did. Nobody called the Astros' actions "inexcusable," as the Sporting News did.


2. The Astros didn't commit fraud.

Late in 2011 the SEC opened an investigation into the Marlins' ballpark deal.

CBS Sports wrote at the time:
The city and county are paying for nearly 80 percent of the $634 million stadium. The subpoenas focus, the report says, on the Marlins trying to determine the team's ability to pay for the financing of the stadium. Last year, the Marlins' financial records were leaked and they showed that the team had received the most money in Major League Baseball from its revenue-sharing system, while not investing it back into the team. The team said it was financial strapped and needed help from the city and county to build the stadium, which it ultimately received.

And then they went out and signed those $181m in contracts, wooing Albert Pujols, promising to put a competitive team on the field, a promise which didn't make it to the All-Star Break. Passan wrote in the above-linked article that, by the time the balloon payments are due on the ballpark, it will cost Miami-Dade taxpayers $2.4 billion.

Of owner Jeffrey Loria and president David Samson, Passan wrote:
And these were two men who for years lied about their finances, lied about their intentions, lied all to get Miami to build them a $634 million ballpark that was supposed to end this wretched cycle of turning a major league franchise into a swap meet.

For Peter Gammons to mention the Marlins' long-term plans with the Astros' long-term plans is, at best, lazy. At worst, it's ignorant.

Rangers official lets Astros know they got Justin Upton

According to Peter Gammons, an official from the Rangers called someone from the Astros on Wednesday night and said "We got Upton."

That's all the context I can give you. So what does it mean? A couple of possibilities:

1) The Rangers are a bunch of douches, and are calling the Astros to tell them of their acquisition of Justin Upton purely out of spite and to let the Astros know in no uncertain terms, "You guys are in some serious trouble now, were you not already in serious trouble before."

2) There is, in fact, a multi-team trade on the table involving Justin Upton. Thus, the Astros are somehow involved, and are about to trade somebody to someone else, and receive something back from that other team. And it involves the Rangers and Diamondbacks.

Either are strong possibilities.

UPDATE: ESPN Dallas's Ben Rogers tweeted:
WAIT! Source just called who talked to Gammons, who said: "They thought they had him, but it unraveled." Not sure why he didn't tweet that

Peter Gammons has nice things to say

Peter Gammons tweeted some very nice words about the Astros draft.

AL Scouting Director:"Houston took its draft position and killed it like no one else. Correa, McCullers, Ruiz...they changed the franchise."

We're biased, of course, but you can't deny that the Astros went after - and signed - high-profile, high-upside guys that other teams thought were unsignable. From the moment I saw that Ruiz wanted "Top 10" money, I thought, "Well, that's a wasted pick," but Luhnow & Co. worked the draft and maximized its potential - getting three 1st round talents in Correa, McCullers, and Ruiz.

On the job almost seven months, Luhnow is working towards getting on the Mt. Rushmore of the franchise.

Crane in, Astros to AL, with implied question mark

Here's a Chronicle report referencing a Peter Gammons tweet saying that Jim Crane is expected to be approved as owner of the Astros, with the condition that the Astros will then move to the American League.

Gammons followed that tweet up with a very telling tweet that read, "TGHSAW$!%FFFFFF"

More as it develops, I'm sure.

UPDATE: Not so fast my friends. This new report from the Chronicle, entirely free of Peter Gammons tweets, says that Crane has not been contacted about a move to the AL.

Peter Gammons' Astros update

Peter Gammons tweeted the following:

Astros cannot find requisite 3-4 player offer for Pence.. Likely staying. Wandy market hurt by AL teams wary of NL pitchers, Suppan Effect.

Gammons has some rumors

Peter Gammons has some Astros rumors for you.

Wandy is "definitely on the market."

What could the Astros want for Wandy? A comparable trade might be the Rockies floating Ubaldo Jimenez, and Gammons apparently knows what Colorado wants for him:

What would it take, with a club-friendly contract? One or two Major League level players, one of who would move into the Colorado rotation, and at least two prime prospects. In other words, if the Yankees want Jimenez, the Rockies would need a Major League starter, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and a bat.

If the Astros are willing take one ML-ready player and one prime prospect, they could move to the top of the list.

Washington is apparently interested in Michael Bourn:
Washington isn't selling, except for Tyler Clippard; instead, they keep asking for Michael Bourn -- thus far without success -- and had been one of several teams interested in Julio Borbon until his recent injury.

Gammons: Other GMs not happy Texas got to play Houston

According to Peter Gammons:

I talked to some general managers that were frustrated the Rangers got the Houston Astros [in Interleague play], while one team is getting the Giants and another is getting a really good team. But that's because they're in Texas, and they're really good.

We're presuming that "they" in the last bit does not refer to the Astros.

Astros wanted something the Twins had

With a captip to MLBTR, the Astros were after Twins' catching prospect Drew Butera, according to Peter Gammons:

Astros first choice for C to replace Castro was Twins' Drew Butera, but Twins won't trade him.

If Gammons is right, and there's no reason to think he wouldn't know something like this, then that kind of goes against Castro's replacement being a short-term solution.