Thursday Morning Hot Links

AL West Recap: The Astros won, and of course the Angels did too because Scioscia is actually a sorcerer. The Rangers won because the Rockies are useless, the A's won, as well. Only the Mariners lost. Despite this, the Astros playoff chances jumped from 65% to 70% on FanGraphs.

*Preston Tucker homered twice in last night's 4-2 win over the Red Sox. Tucker hit .183/.247/.328 from June 3 - July 1. But starting with the nine-game road trip on July 3 through last night? .321/.357/.604.

*Collin McHugh says the fans are the real MVP.
Honestly our fan base has been really, really supportive, really encouraging throughout the whole thing. And coming from New York, it's refreshing. It's refreshing to have fans who care about baseball and care about people, and you know, you can have both.

*McCullers will pitch tonight, then the rotation will be Feldman, Keuchel, Velasquez against Kansas City. Speaking of McCullers, Brent Strom said his breaking ball is "Kimbrel-like."

Trade Deadline Links

*Commissioner Rob Manfred is interested in pushing back the Trade Deadling, due to the extra Wild Card spot.

*The Astros are in on "every rental" player, according to Jayson Stark, checking in on Cueto, Samardzija, and Dan...this can't be right, yeah, I guess it is, Dan Haren.

*Susan Slusser says that Scott Kazmir may land in Houston.

*The Tigers won't decide if they're selling until after Sunday.

*Stark says the four likely destinations for Cole Hamels - if he's traded at all - are: Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, or Rangers.

*Jeff Luhnow used the A's as a cautionary tale to the New York Post's Joel Sherman:
We saw Oakland trade away pretty good players last year to win a division and they ended up getting eliminated in the wild-card game.

*Anthony Castrovince wants to see the Astros trade for David Price

Non-Astros link of the day

Rolling Stone: Meet the man who flies around the world for free

Jayson Stark's Spring Training Survey

The Astros figured briefly into Jayson Stark's Spring Training preview this morning. Among those notes:

*The Astros got three votes for the AL's Most Improved team, but didn't escape an asterisk joke. The Rangers and Mariners came in 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

*For the second year in a row the Astros are the Least Recognizable Team! Actual quote alert: "Wow," said one NL GM. "I don't even know if I could name them." Ha ha ha the NL is soooo stupid.

*Scott Feldman came in 2nd on the Worst Free Agent Signing of the off-season poll.

On tanking, Buster Olney, and the Astros

Buster Olney started it. In his (Insider-Only) blog post for ESPN yesterday in which the headline read "Astros' season highlights incentive to tank," Olney took the Astros task for not fielding a competitive team and how it's destroying the very fabric of baseball. Give him credit, because back in March he was trumpeting the exact same thing (you can read our thoughts on that piece here).

The interesting thing is that, once again, Olney is the one with the problem. A rival official told Olney, "They're going to be good because they're getting access to the best talent and Luhnow is a really smart guy." (emphasis Olney's) Olney admits, "In the minds of many rival evaluators - many - the Astros are playing baseball's current system to perfection."

Back in his March hand-wringing, Olney said, "Privately, rival executives really like what the Astros are doing, in stripping down the organization and rebuilding from the ground up."

Even Bud Selig, who is clearly the devil, told Brian Smith:
"I do trust the organization. Look, every organization goes through certain phases. They have chosen the path with some very qualified people. And the only way you can really build a solid organization, a solid team, is through a very productive farm system. And I think they're doing it the right way. There's no question in my mind."


Olney, typically, is providing the knee-jerk reactionary's viewpoint. He even mentions "an evaluator" who admired that the NBA instituted a lottery system to prevent rewarding teams from losing, as though MLB and the NBA are interchangeable parts. 

Olney says that the Astros could have spent more money in an effort to be competitive and chose not to do so and "what should scare Major League Baseball" is that the Astros are admired for their strategy. "Fans are paying major league prices to watch major league competition...that fan is not buying a ticket because he knows Houston is positioned to pick NC State's Carlos Rodon in next June's draft."

Here's where Olney is missing the point: No, fans aren't exactly lining up to get into Minute Maid Park. Attendance is roughly half of what it was in 2004. And - if they're even able to watch Astros games on CSN Houston - they're not doing so (while fully realizing that Nielsen ratings don't count those of us watching on Extra Innings, MLB.TV, or even fans in Houston using an IP masking service watching MLB.TV). A 0.0 rating?

Because it's not fun for people who don't follow the Astros on a regular basis to give it any thought, Olney stops his argument short of following a logical line: That there is no guarantee to what the Astros' situation is, and there is the possibility that the Astros are slowly, methodically, being destroyed. It's hard to look at attendance at Minute Maid Park, whole sections of which are representative of the television ratings (while my personal opinions of tv ratings are well-documented) and say that the Astros are reaping the benefits of a broken system.

What if Jon Singleton doesn't put it together? What if George Springer and Chris Carter combine to strike out Seventabilly times in 2014? What if Jordan Lyles can't figure it out for more than three starts at a time? Drafting in baseball is not like the lottery system in the NBA. An NBA lottery pick - more often than not - means there is an impact on the team within six months. We'll be lucky to see Carlos Correa, who was drafted fifteen months ago, by 2016.

And besides, if/when the Astros start winning again, how long will it take for fans to start returning to Minute Maid Park? Two years? Three? And if you think that DirecTV and UVerse didn't see that the Astros/Indians game drew a 0.0, and are now tripping over themselves to get CSN Houston on board for $3/subscriber....

Olney is short-sighted, discounting the immense risk that the Astros are taking. The Astros are not providing a blueprint for teams that want to save a few bucks and get a higher draft pick, as Olney alleges. The Marlins? you ask. Hell no. Jeffrey Loria goes out of his way to find new strategies for screwing over his team, fanbase, and probably the government, too.

But of course, like crows attracted to shiny things, here came Peter Gammons:

Houston went 6-30 vs. Texas and Oakland, made $, gets the 1st pick with the largest signing pool...in top 5 market. Reward losing.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) September 25, 2013

And then, not to be outdone by a ridiculously tired narrative, Jayson Stark:

Wins vs #Astros by AL wild card contenders: Rangers 16, Indians 6, Rays 5. Astros vs those teams: 5-27. Astros Factor hanging over this race
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) September 25, 2013

I guess we can forget that the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to a four-year $52m deal this past off-season, and have a $75.5m payroll to go 65-97 (closer to the Astros than they are the Angels in the standings), and are 24-48 against the NL Central, the division that will have three playoff teams. Oh, yes, the Astros are 25-50 against the AL West, meaning that the Astros and Cubs have the same inter-division winning percentage. Cubs Factor?

Sure, the Rangers are helped by beating the Astros 16 out of 18 games. But they're in a Wild Card race in part because they're 13-19 against the AL Central. Cleveland is in line for a playoff berth in large part because they're 16-2 against the White Sox. Atlanta is 26-12 against the Marlins and Nationals.

Bad teams all end up in the same place - at home in October. Good teams beat those bad teams. It's how it works. The Astros are bad. Really bad. We're going to see video clips of the Blocked Bunt and Butt-Slide for years to come. But to hammer the Astros, link them to Pete Rose and Joe Jackson (As Olney did in March), and to maintain this tired TEH ASTORS narrative is as reckless as CSN Houston playing chicken with 60% of televisions in the Houston area. The real damage the Astros are doing is to their own franchise, it has nothing to do with the rest of Major League Baseball or Buster Olney.

Astros looking for Volume

In Jayson Stark's Trade Deadline post today, a few Astros Things are addressed. Among them:

*Luhnow has the go-ahead to move "just about anyone," though Altuve and Castro will "probably be priced too high" to move.
*Bud Norris is the most likely to go, with Lucas Harrell getting a "keep your eye on..." description.
*One NL exec says the Astros are looking for "volume" in any trade.

Among the teams looking for starting pitching, Detroit and Atlanta are looking for bullpen help, while the Giants and Orioles want starters. 

Astros looking for Happy Hour

Jayson Stark tweeted earlier today (before Luhnow's "nothing is imminent" on Harrell/Norris comments this afternoon) that other clubs are saying the Astros will "listen on anyone" provided they get at least two players in return.

Stark also mentioned that "lots of scouts" have their eye on Lucas Harrell.

Trade Chatter: Friday

A few trade-related links, with the deadline still 4.5 days away:

*Jeff Luhnow told Brian McTaggart on Wednesday that the Astros are done "stimulating any dialogues" on further trades, but they are still listening if other teams call.

*On that point, ESPN's Jayson Stark says that he hears everyone on Houston's roster except Jose Altuve is "up for grabs."

*Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a not-entirely-flattering look at Luhnow's recent moves, though he concludes "there wasn't much more the Astros could have done."

Stark, with a Crane update

Jayson Stark has an update on the Jim Crane proceedings:

...Sources we've surveyed report that nothing substantial has changed, that Crane's bid is still "stuck in neutral" and that he still could wind up being approved under the right conditions -- with an agreement to allow his team to move to the American League ranking near or at the top of that list.

More "Jim Crane will be MLB's plaything"

Jayson Stark's new Rumblings & Grumblings column talks more about how Jim Crane has no leverage if MLB wants to move the Astros to the American League. Bad news alert: It may not happen before Carlos Lee's contract expires.

Well, there's an owners' meeting next week, in which Jim Crane is scheduled to be approved as the next owner of the Astros.

Crane is a pivotal figure in this drama. Pivotal.

That's because the other 29 current owners have the right to veto any move of any kind -- to another league, to another division, to any place they don't feel like moving.

But Crane doesn't have that right, just because he's the new guy. We keep hearing that he's told Selig behind the scenes that he really doesn't want the Astros to leave the NL Central. But face it. He doesn't have much leverage here.

If realignment ever happens, you can bet the Astros will be moving -- somewhere. But where?

You'll have to click the link to find out where...
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We also find that a potential target for the PTBNL to complete the Pence trade, Single-A outfielder Leandro Castro, is hurt. The Astros have "two-and-a-half weeks" to make their selection, and if Castro is still hurt, they may want to expand their list, which may piss off the Phillies.

Astros acting like an "expansion team"

Jayson Stark's Trade Deadline Winners and Losers column lists Ed Wade and the Astros squarely in the Losers column:

The Astros just about invited their fan base to go order some chimichangas, watch a lot of high school football and not stop back at the ballpark for like the next thousand days -- because the entertainment provided by their baseball team between now and then isn't going to be much fun.

"They're basically starting to shape themselves for 2015," said one NL executive. "It's almost like they're doing an expansion team."

That's a couple of awesome stereotypes about Houstonians, dontcha think?

Bedtime Pence update

A couple of quick notes before it's beddy-bye time.

UPDATE: Alright, one more. Jim Bowden sources a scout who says that the Astros' asking price is Cosart, Singleton, and Trevor May.
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Hunter Pence admitted to Brian McTaggart that tonight could have been his final game in an Astros' uniform:

“What can I say? I’m not in control. I love these guys, I love Houston. That’s all I know.”

Where he ends up is of course all speculation. But Jayson Stark has some ideas.

The Phillies are reportedly still building a package around Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton, but the Astros want two more high-end prospects.

The Braves have a package ready built around "highly regarded" pitching prospects, but none of them that go by the name of Julio Teheran.

Stark also mentions the six teams, but not the "three NL/three AL" teams of earlier. Stark's six teams are the Phillies, Braves, Reds, Pirates, Indians, and Red Sox.

Phillies deal still on the table?

As of 10:29pm Jayson Stark says:

Source: #Phillies "still in" on Pence, talking same names reported Wed (Cosart, Singleton, others).

He also says the Astros are thinking over a Braves offer. There's still three days of this left, friends, so settle in.

Interest in Pence "exploding!"

Holy Hannah, it's a veritable fireworks display of interest in Hunter Pence, since Carlos Beltran got traded, says Jayson Stark, with the four teams he lists: Phillies, Braves, Reds, Red Sox.

Earlier, Ken Rosenthal said there were as many as eight teams in on Pence.

And the Astros are listening.

My, how quickly opinion snowballs...

Afternoon update

Perhaps you're as tired of this as we are. But there's still 3.5 days left!

Jayson Stark says:

*The Phillies have had high interest in Ryan Ludwick and Heath Bell.

*On Pence:
Skepticism has never been higher in the industry that the Astros are seriously interested in trading him before the offseason -- if ever.

*The Braves have interest in three bats, Stark says:
Hunter Pence, Willingham and Ludwick. The Braves looked into Upton, but don't seem prepared to pay a big price for him. We also haven't heard much that suggests the Braves are still bullpen shopping.

*Stark also says the Yankees are a possibility for Wandy Rodriguez.

*On a possible deadline-related note, the Astros announced a Michael Bourn/Jimmy Wynn program at the Urban Youth Academy from August 1-3.

Maybe there was a deal for Pence, and maybe Houston backed off

Jayson Stark's Daily Update has this nugget about the Phillies, and Pence:

It's now become clear to clubs that have spoken with the Phillies that if that Big Deal is for a bat, almost all their bullets are being aimed at Hunter Pence.

In fact, over the last 24 hours, two different front-office men -- neither of whom works for the Phillies or Astros -- told us they believed the Phillies "had a deal for him" earlier in the week, only to have Houston back off.

When we ran that scenario past one Astros official, he refused to discuss any specific player. What he did say was that his team is still willing to listen to just about anything, and that it hasn't said no to any specific proposal.

It's believed, Stark says, that the deal was centered around Jonathan Singleton, Jared Cosart, and another prospect, but the Astros want four "sure thing" prospects. There you go. /brain melts

Not content with running the franchise into the ground over the past five years, Drayton's happy to do it for the next five

Jayson Stark's new Rumblings & Grumblings column:

One long-time friend of Drayton McLane says he thinks McLane's final act as the Astros' owner will be to convince GM Ed Wade not to trade one of his favorite players, Hunter Pence, on McLane's watch

If this is true - then Ed Wade truly is in a ridiculous position. If Crane is inclined to keep Pence, and Drayton is trying to convince Wade to keep him, but Wade wants to trade him, there's nothing he can do. It's career suicide if he pulls the trigger and trades Pence. He's probably going to get fired, anyway, so why not try to keep both bosses happy?

But if Crane wants to trade Pence, and Drayton is pressuring him to keep him, then Drayton is clearly overstepping his bounds, and it makes me want to punch a wall. For all intents and purposes, McLane is no longer in charge of the Astros, and shouldn't try to influence his General Manager either way. On anything. If Drayton wanted to continue to wield influence, he should have held on to the team.

The fact that Selig has dragged his feet on approving this ownership change until mid-August is like Santa not showing up until January 12.

Random exec thinks Pence will stay in Houston until the off-season

Jayson Stark's new Rumblings & Grumblings column spends a good amount of time talking about Hunter Pence.

One Official said Pence was a "right-handed Johnny Damon," and also compared his swing to Charles Barkley, which makes not one damn bit of sense to me (feel free to comment and clear this up).

Another Exec:
"I'd be surprised if he gets traded now. I think doing it in the offseason is much more sensible."

"Sensible" is a stupid word. He's got two arbitration years left regardless of what happens, and he's probably got $3 million left on his deal this season. So if $3 million keeps a GM away from making this happen, someone is acting a fool.

Also, the "job-saving deal" that Ed Wade is looking for, according to Stark, is unlikely. But a lot can change in the next ten days.

Rumble! Grumble!

Jayson Stark's new Rumblings and Grumblings column has some info pertaining to the Astros:

A source familiar with baseball's schedule-making says that if realignment happens, it's "unlikely" to happen by next year.

Stark goes on to talk about how realignment won't make sense unless the playoffs are expanded.

Jayson Stark: Screw you, Jim Crane, and your $680 million

Jayson Stark's new Rumblings & Grumblings engages in a conversation with Buster Olney about realignment:

I think there's only one candidate to switch -- the Astros. Three reasons: 1) It's those mandatory interleague-rivalry games between the Astros and Rangers that guarantee the interleague schedules are all out of whack. 2) If you move a team from any other NL division to the AL, it means you have to start shifting around clubs in other divisions, too, to balance it out. And 3) every existing owner has the right to veto a move, and almost certainly would block it. So the only place baseball has leverage is in Houston, where they can make moving a condition of the purchase. That isn't too fair to Jim Crane, but that's the deal.

Pence: Good not great

Jayson Stark's new new Rumblings and Grumblings column is up, and he addresses the Hunter Pence situation:

The Astros continue to tell people that when they project which pieces they would need to build a winner down the road, they can't envision Hunter Pence not being a central part of that. But one scout who has seen Pence a lot says he's not the kind of player you construct a team around.

"He's a good player, but I see him as more of a complementary piece," the scout said. "He's the kind of guy you win with if you have two other major run-producers around him. I don't want to give the impression I don't like the guy. I like him a lot. But he's not an impact guy to the point that should prohibit them from trading him for a quality starting pitcher and another piece."

Jayson Stark on the Astros

Jayson Stark's new column takes on the Astros and their situation come July:

If we had to pick one club in baseball that has the look of a sure-fire seller in July, we'd pick the Astros. But there are two things to remember: 1) As GM Ed Wade pointed out, the Astros actually have a better record this year (18-30) than they had in late May last year (17-34) -- and last year's team went 59-52 the rest of the way. 2) Until the Astros' sale to Jim Crane is approved (most likely sometime in July), Wade can't even have a conversation with the new owner about his philosophy on team-building.

But at a time in which his club is obviously rebuilding, Wade says he expects to take the same approach this July that he took last July: "Anything that builds the type of depth that will get us where we need to be, it would make sense to explore."

Stark notes that Other Clubs believe Wade would "gladly listen" on Myers, Wandy, Barmes, and Hall. Only two of those guys are having seasons worth giving up more than a jock strap's worth of hamster cage shavings for, and I'll let you figure out the two.

And on Hunter Pence, noting that the Braves, Phillies, and Orioles are interested him?
An executive of a fourth club says he believes there's a "1 million percent chance" Wade would need, essentially, a job-saving haul in return to even consider trading Pence.

"If you're Jim Crane walking in the door," the exec wondered, "how can you trade the one guy on your team who represents that part of Texas -- a blue-collar, hard-nosed player?"

Stark later notes that the Phillies are telling teams they can only really afford what amounts to half of Pence's $6.9m salary.

What say you?