Monday Morning Hot Links

So here's how today is going to go. I'm actually chaperoning a week-long college trip, but clearly have internet access, albeit with no time between 7:20am - 10:30pm. The 2018 Draft is this evening. I'll be able to do a write-up on the 1-28 later tonight. On to last night's game:

*The Red Sox fought back to earn a split in the series, and Jexas has your wide-angle view of these past four games.

*Seattle won another 1-run game and are now one game up on the Astros, who are 37-24, 1-2 on Sunday Night Baseball. The Astros are 4-6 in their last ten games, 12-8 in their last 20.

*Just another opportunity to lament missed opportunities. The Astros lost 9-3 after going 1x14 w/RISP. Altuve was 0x3 w/RISP (including staring at a fastball straight down the middle of the plate from Matt Barnes with two on), Gattis and Correa were 0x2 each. Springer, Gurriel, Davis, and Stassi were each 0x1 and Alex Bregman - who hit a two-run single to make it 6-3 Boston in the 7th - was 1x3. Carlos Correa is 14x56 (.250 average) when hitting with runners in scoring position.

*Charlie Morton: 5.1IP, 9H/6ER, 7K:1BB. Morton:
It was just one of those nights that I felt like my back was against the wall because they were putting together good at-bats. I wasn't locating. I wasn't getting ahead.

*Alex Cora knows what's up with Charlie Morton. As Chandler Rome notes, Morton allowed a .164/.255/.262 slash line and a total of six home runs to left-handed hitters in 2017. Last night the Red Sox lefties got Morton for five hits, four of them for extra-bases, and two of those home runs.

It was the first time he has allowed 6+ ER in a start since April 7, 2016.

*Rick Porcello:
I think these last two games were big for us. It's early June, but we dropped the first two games and felt like we needed to kind of punch back a little bit. We had a tough time with them last year, in the last series and going into the postseason. We definitely took a couple punches the last two games, so it was good.

*The Astros put the leadoff man on base in the 1st (technically, because George Springer homered to lead off the bottom of the 1st), 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th innings and only managed the lone Springer run.

*Jose Altuve struck out three times in a game for the first time since August 14, 2017. That was his only 3K game of the season.

*Last night was the 3rd time the Astros have allowed 9+ runs. In 14 games in which Houston has allowed 5+ runs, they're 1-13. The 2017 pitching staff gave up 5+ runs in a game 68 times, and the Astros were 24-44.

*6-9 in the lineup (Gattis, Davis, Stassi, Kemp): 0x13, 2K:1BB.

*It was the Astros' 13th straight day with a game - eleven of those games were against 2017 playoff teams. They've played a game in 35 out of their last 38 days (and went 20-15). Hinch:
It's nice to have a home off day, and we need it right now. Physically, we're a little bit tired. Mentally, we're a little bit tired and we showed that a little bit. But we'll be fine. We're a pretty resilient group that just went through a little bit of a rough travel schedule like a lot of teams do.

*Don't look now but Tony Sipp's last 13 outings: 9.2IP, 6H/1ER, 9K:2BB.

*Ken Giles, man. He had a string of seven straight appearances, from April 9-30, in which he didn't allow a baserunner. Then there was the Right Cross game against the Yankees, which has started a different streak where he has allowed at least one baserunner in nine of eleven outings. Giles gave up 3H/2ER with 2K:0BB.

Giles, March-April 2018: 10IP, 6H/2ER, 7K:0BB.
Giles, May-June 2018: 9IP, 17H/9ER, 11K:1BB.

Giles has faced 80 batters and walked exactly one of them. He's just pounding the zone and his slider isn't right, so he's easier to hit. He has a 5.21 ERA.

*RELATED: Ken Rosenthal thinks the Astros could be in the market for a lefty reliever.

*Buster Olney: The Astros should be all-in on the potential for a dynasty (even though we all know this season is as good as over /eyes roll out of head). Olney:
They are right in the middle of their window to win, as they have a historically great rotation and a dangerous lineup. But they'll have to run the AL gauntlet in the playoffs before they have a shot at back-to-back titles, and they'll probably need a better bullpen to survive the Red Sox/Yankees/Indians steel-cage matches. Whether it's Giles or somebody else, they could really use a lockdown closer. 

*Here's a cool Tyler Kepner article on the 69-year old Brent Strom and how he has embraced the Astros' data-driven approach, and the weird story about how he landed with Houston in the first place.

*Our buddies over in England are trying to figure out who the 2018 Astros really are.

*The 33-23 Corpus Christi Hooks got bombed by Tulsa yesterday, but Josh Reddick was 1x4 in his first rehab appearance.

*A problematic agent is leaving the baseball industry over $33,000.

*Over at The Athletic, Our Boy Levi Weaver started a profile on Tyler Bauer's buddies at Driveline Baseball.

*With the World Cup starting in ten days (looking forward to that World Cup NIT match between the US and Italy), ESPN UK has a look at underground fighting in Russia, and Russia's new school hooligan culture.

Lightning strike captured on @espn cameras just outside Minute Maid Park this evening @astros #houwx pic.twitter.com/EKlm4y3HA7

— Jeff Lindner (@JeffLindner1) June 4, 2018

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Six more Sundays and the Astros will be stretching on a field in Florida...

*Jose Altuve is Buster Olney's best 2B in the game.

*Dallas Keuchel has been out of his walking boot for about ten days. Keuchel:
I'm almost full bore with everything. This year, I'm taking a little cardio off until right around Spring Training time because I'm a year older and trying to be a year wiser and not push myself too early, just because the season is so long and if we are going to be in the playoffs again it's going to be an extra month.

*Lance McCullers organized a camp at MMP for 200 local kids.

*FanGraphs' Sunday Notes: Brady Aiken's career is nearing a crossroads. David Laurilia:
Two years after the Indians drafted him in the first round - and two years post Tommy John surgery - Aiken spent his summer pumping low-octane gas. A heater that touched 96 in high school was now hovering in the high 80s, and only occasionally north of 90. Other numbers were a concern as well. The 21-year old southpaw had a 4.77 ERA and walked 101 batters in 132 innings for low-A Lake County.

*Brandon Barnes: Artist

*The Rangers are interested in trading for Christian Yelich.

*How one collector spent 17 years searching for Moonlight Graham's autograph.

*For the second year in a row my favo(u)rite soccer team was knocked out of the FA Cup by a lower division team.

*USA Hockey is set up for global domination.

*From Kottke.org: Smells Like Teen Spirit tuned to a major key is unsettling:

Monday Morning Hot Links

Well things are starting to die down as the despair casts its shadow on to the Houston Texans. If you are emotionally invested in the Texans, please accept my apologies and best wishes for your livers.

For Astros County, though, we shift a little bit into walks down memory lane, reactions to what the Astros do ("The Astros signed Player X. It doesn't make sense, but I'm not going to question it. Back to watching ALCS Game 2 and laughing my head off"), etc. Sometimes the Hot Links will be shorter, there may be days that we don't post anything at all. Winter is here in all its 86-degree glory.

One thing, before we start, though: today (November 6) is the 9th anniversary of the first post on Astros County. Later that day I recapped Brandon Backe's 2008 season and the financial outlook for the 2009 team. It must have been a slow day at work. In the Hot Links post on Thursday morning, you know, the one a few hours after the Astros WON THE WORLD SERIES, a lot of you left very nice comments about this blog. I didn't respond because the most Facebook thing you can do is to copy-and-paste "Thanks!" to every comment, which manages to cheapen the original comment. I read every single one and want you to know that I truly appreciate all of you. Writing about the Astros has been cathartic for me. I'm about four years into off-and-on research on a non-fiction (non-Astros) book, and hitting "publish" around 6:15am every morning gives me the pleasure of having finished...something. I have a lot more to research before I can even start writing the book, and I don't have a ton of free time as it is. The idea that you come to this website each morning, even if the only thing new is a list of what you should read, is humbling. Thank you.

*Richard Justice writes that the Astros' grit and determination (*checks FanGraphs for Grit+) started with A.J. Hinch. Hinch, on talking to Altuve after the 2014 season:
We talked a lot about getting better. We talked about the 100-loss seasons. We talked about the grind that had taken its toll. I asked him one question: 'Why don't we talk about winning?'

*Buster Olney: The Astros look ready to launch a dynasty, but so did the Cubs in 2016. (Also comes with a great story about how Charlie Morton misunderstood the Astros' offer, and was thrilled with the idea of making half of what he's actually making).

*Jim Duquette doesn't think the Astros land any of the Top 25 Free Agents (which starts later today).

*Meet 32-year old Kyle Hamsher, also known as Orbit.

Wednesday Morning Link Dump

Well and so the Astros beat the AL All-Star team for a second straight night, with Keuchel doing Keuchel things.  At 46-34, the Astros are four games up on the Angels, with a season-high 58.6% chance of winning the division and 75.1% chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs.  Baseball Prospectus puts the Astros' division chances at 50.7% and the postseason chances at 68.9%.

Let's start with The Weird:

The Astros are the dominant force in the American League right now, and after the events of the last two days, it's not really debatable.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 1, 2015

*Dallas Keuchel is the first Astros pitcher to ten wins before the All-Star Break since Roy Oswalt in 2005.

*"The Hill...it got me."
-Lorenzo Cain

*"I'm just happy to be drafted by a team that actually loves me."
-Daz Cameron, who took BP with Carlos Correa prior to Tuesday's game

*Meat Wagon Update: Scott Feldman is looking at a return this month, Colby Rasmus probably won't make the road trip to Boston, Jake Marisnick starts a rehab assignment today, Brad Peacock hopes to throw off a mound next week, and Jed Lowrie still hasn't picked up a real bat. Asher Wojciechowski or Dan Straily will make Friday's start in Oberholtzer's place.

The A's and the Astros

In Buster Olney's recent hatchet job on the Astros rebuilding plan, he contrasts the win now mode of the A's versus the "tanking" of the Astros in recent years. This is expressly a criticism of Luhnow, calling his process "the easy way out." Right, cause its entirely easy to risk everything on a unprecedented rebuild during your first GM job, surrounding yourself with people in their first jobs as well, knowing that failure means you are all likely out of baseball.

But Buster's analysis ignores a fundamental point, and it makes his criticism as close to meaningless as you can get. Billy Beane ran the A's from 1997 to now. The A's have operated under a unified vision from that time. Through the ups and downs, Billy Beane was guiding the team, making the decisions. After a run of success started to fade, he made decisions that would get them back there quickly. He never let them get to the point where they were losing 106 games with one of the worst farm systems in the league.

 And that is where the Astros were already at when Luhnow took over the team. People talk about the three consecutive 100 loss seasons, and pin them all on the drastic rebuild model, but that's not the case. The 106 loss season wasn't part of a plan and wasn't by design. It represented the bottom falling out of a poorly run organization.

 Maybe there was something Luhnow could have done to immediately turn the team back to mediocrity. But there was nothing he could have done to immediately do what the A's are doing now. He didn't have the resources, and he didn't have them because he wasn't given them. The A's have never been in that position under Billy Beane, and likely won't be while he is running the team.

Luhnow has stated the goal is to get to a run of sustained success like the A's have had, and continue to have. Maybe he'll do it, and maybe he won't. But to suggest he could have the Astros doing what the A's are doing now ignores the reality of the situation.

On tanking, Buster Olney, and the Astros

Buster Olney started it. In his (Insider-Only) blog post for ESPN yesterday in which the headline read "Astros' season highlights incentive to tank," Olney took the Astros task for not fielding a competitive team and how it's destroying the very fabric of baseball. Give him credit, because back in March he was trumpeting the exact same thing (you can read our thoughts on that piece here).

The interesting thing is that, once again, Olney is the one with the problem. A rival official told Olney, "They're going to be good because they're getting access to the best talent and Luhnow is a really smart guy." (emphasis Olney's) Olney admits, "In the minds of many rival evaluators - many - the Astros are playing baseball's current system to perfection."

Back in his March hand-wringing, Olney said, "Privately, rival executives really like what the Astros are doing, in stripping down the organization and rebuilding from the ground up."

Even Bud Selig, who is clearly the devil, told Brian Smith:
"I do trust the organization. Look, every organization goes through certain phases. They have chosen the path with some very qualified people. And the only way you can really build a solid organization, a solid team, is through a very productive farm system. And I think they're doing it the right way. There's no question in my mind."


Olney, typically, is providing the knee-jerk reactionary's viewpoint. He even mentions "an evaluator" who admired that the NBA instituted a lottery system to prevent rewarding teams from losing, as though MLB and the NBA are interchangeable parts. 

Olney says that the Astros could have spent more money in an effort to be competitive and chose not to do so and "what should scare Major League Baseball" is that the Astros are admired for their strategy. "Fans are paying major league prices to watch major league competition...that fan is not buying a ticket because he knows Houston is positioned to pick NC State's Carlos Rodon in next June's draft."

Here's where Olney is missing the point: No, fans aren't exactly lining up to get into Minute Maid Park. Attendance is roughly half of what it was in 2004. And - if they're even able to watch Astros games on CSN Houston - they're not doing so (while fully realizing that Nielsen ratings don't count those of us watching on Extra Innings, MLB.TV, or even fans in Houston using an IP masking service watching MLB.TV). A 0.0 rating?

Because it's not fun for people who don't follow the Astros on a regular basis to give it any thought, Olney stops his argument short of following a logical line: That there is no guarantee to what the Astros' situation is, and there is the possibility that the Astros are slowly, methodically, being destroyed. It's hard to look at attendance at Minute Maid Park, whole sections of which are representative of the television ratings (while my personal opinions of tv ratings are well-documented) and say that the Astros are reaping the benefits of a broken system.

What if Jon Singleton doesn't put it together? What if George Springer and Chris Carter combine to strike out Seventabilly times in 2014? What if Jordan Lyles can't figure it out for more than three starts at a time? Drafting in baseball is not like the lottery system in the NBA. An NBA lottery pick - more often than not - means there is an impact on the team within six months. We'll be lucky to see Carlos Correa, who was drafted fifteen months ago, by 2016.

And besides, if/when the Astros start winning again, how long will it take for fans to start returning to Minute Maid Park? Two years? Three? And if you think that DirecTV and UVerse didn't see that the Astros/Indians game drew a 0.0, and are now tripping over themselves to get CSN Houston on board for $3/subscriber....

Olney is short-sighted, discounting the immense risk that the Astros are taking. The Astros are not providing a blueprint for teams that want to save a few bucks and get a higher draft pick, as Olney alleges. The Marlins? you ask. Hell no. Jeffrey Loria goes out of his way to find new strategies for screwing over his team, fanbase, and probably the government, too.

But of course, like crows attracted to shiny things, here came Peter Gammons:

Houston went 6-30 vs. Texas and Oakland, made $, gets the 1st pick with the largest signing pool...in top 5 market. Reward losing.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) September 25, 2013

And then, not to be outdone by a ridiculously tired narrative, Jayson Stark:

Wins vs #Astros by AL wild card contenders: Rangers 16, Indians 6, Rays 5. Astros vs those teams: 5-27. Astros Factor hanging over this race
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) September 25, 2013

I guess we can forget that the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to a four-year $52m deal this past off-season, and have a $75.5m payroll to go 65-97 (closer to the Astros than they are the Angels in the standings), and are 24-48 against the NL Central, the division that will have three playoff teams. Oh, yes, the Astros are 25-50 against the AL West, meaning that the Astros and Cubs have the same inter-division winning percentage. Cubs Factor?

Sure, the Rangers are helped by beating the Astros 16 out of 18 games. But they're in a Wild Card race in part because they're 13-19 against the AL Central. Cleveland is in line for a playoff berth in large part because they're 16-2 against the White Sox. Atlanta is 26-12 against the Marlins and Nationals.

Bad teams all end up in the same place - at home in October. Good teams beat those bad teams. It's how it works. The Astros are bad. Really bad. We're going to see video clips of the Blocked Bunt and Butt-Slide for years to come. But to hammer the Astros, link them to Pete Rose and Joe Jackson (As Olney did in March), and to maintain this tired TEH ASTORS narrative is as reckless as CSN Houston playing chicken with 60% of televisions in the Houston area. The real damage the Astros are doing is to their own franchise, it has nothing to do with the rest of Major League Baseball or Buster Olney.

Teams apparently are nervous about playing the Astros

In Buster Olney's (Insider-only) column this morning there is a mention of the Astros, and not about their offensive explosion last night. No...apparently other teams are going to press when they play the Astros because they're supposed to be so bad.

Olney:
Some rivals playing the Astros say the games present a special kind of tension, because as the presumed worst team in the American League West, the expectation is that you're going to beat them -- and if you fall behind or don't grab the advantage within the games, there is anxiety that opportunity could be missed. "I think the winner of the division might come down to who wins the most games against the Astros," said a rival evaluator. "If you lose five or six games against them, you'll look back with a lot of regret."

As one who appreciates the history of baseball, this is reminiscent of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (on whom we're Ironically keeping an eye in our Futility Watch section). The 1899 Spiders went 20-134, scoring 529 runs and allowing 1252 runs (for a Pythagorean Record of 26-128). They hit .253/.299/.305 with a 74 OPS+, gave up 10+ runs in 50 of their 154 games, and are generally considered to be the worst team ever. So bad, in fact, that they were contracted at the end of the season.

What does this have to do with the 2013 Astros? Look again at what "a rival evaluator" said about the Astros.

Reading through some of the history of the 1899 Spiders, there was a double-header against Baltimore on July 17. Orioles starting pitcher Jerry Nops showed up hungover to pitch the first game, and the Spiders won 7-2. Future Hall of Fame manager John McGraw fined and suspended Nops, and a newly-inspired Baltimore won the second game 21-6.

Writer David Fleitz wrote (and the link is in the preceding paragraph):
Word around the league was that teams worked extra hard to beat the Spiders to avoid losing to the worst team in baseball history. 

Are other teams going to do this against the Astros? Probably. The AL playoff picture looks like it'll be tight, and teams are going to have to take advantage of the Astros (for now) and Twins. I don't disagree with what Olney/Rival Evaluator said. I don't like it, because I'm a sensitive fella, and I almost cried last night when the Astros got up on the Mariners. For a variety of reasons I hope the Astros out-perform their expectations, but the fact that there may be a sense of urgency from other teams can be a benefit to Houston.

Alright, Buster Olney, you're next

I'm not going to do this all throughout the season, but we need to think pretty seriously about Buster Olney's latest (Insider-only) column on ESPN. And while I don't like to pull from sites where you have to pay, there is a very troubling insinuation here put forward by Olney that is flat-out reckless. The paragraph in question:

Baseball has kicked legends Joe Jackson and Pete Rose out of the sport, along with others, because of gambling scandals, out of a fear that the fans' confidence -- the customers' confidence -- in the integrity of the competition might be eroded. There must be a basic integrity to the games: There must be at least the perception that the players involved need to try to win...And the same standard must always apply to the work of the front offices.

If I'm reading this right, and after about forty reads I think I am, Buster Olney is referring to the Astros' rebuild in the same sentence as Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose: they damaged the integrity of the game. (Shoeless Joe might not actually be guilty of anything other than knowing about the Black Sox Scandal - he hit.375/.394/.563 in the 1919 World Series, which doesn't sound like tanking to me, but whatever). Pete Rose did the one thing that has been prohibited by baseball since the 1880s.

How does Olney make the jump from the poster boys of bad baseball behavior to what the Astros are doing? PAYROLLLLLLLLL! As Trostel wrote in an email to me, he's just regurgitating what he wrote a few weeks ago (and I'm not in the mood to go find a link for you) about, "BUT! MONEY! INTEGRITY!"

My favorite part of the piece is the very next line:

Privately, rival executives really like what the Astros are doing, in stripping down the organization and rebuilding from the ground up.

Let's think about that for just a quick second. Olney's pissed, because the integrity of the game has been sacrificed for the long-term health of the franchise. But Corportate MLB as well as "rival executives" don't seem to be too bothered by it. So what's Olney's problem? Draft picks, apparently:


But there is queasiness about the question of whether Houston is angling for better draft picks, in fielding a team on which the highest-paid player, Bud Norris, is set to make $3 million, or about what CC Sabathia makes in three weeks.

First of all, you get queasy from Captain D's, not about another team's rebuilding process. Secondly, paying a player a year's worth of Major League-average salary in three weeks sounds more like a Yankee problem, not an Astros problem.

Perhaps you think Olney would be impressed by the Astros taking this approach - building up their farm team through the draft (which is how it's supposed to work, by the by)...like the Rays and Nationals. Oh but the Rays and Nationals are different! How so?

But the failures that led to those top draft picks were long and organic.

He says this as though the Astros' failures that led to these top draft picks were short, and full of MSG. As though the Astros had pennant-winning teams and thought, "Screw winning now. Delayed gratification is WAY MORE FUN."

Let's look back to 2009, when the Astros should have been about where they hope to be in 2014. On that team, six of the eight position players were in their Age-33 seasons, or older. Carlos Lee made $19m, Miguel Tejada made $14.8m, Lance Berkman made $14.5m. Roy Oswalt made $14m. You can't tell me that a 74-win team with a $103m payroll and an average age of 31.5 is a better situation than the Astros' current one.

The 2009 model was and still is unsustainable, and yelling about integrity when MLB and other front offices "really like" what the Astros are doing means that the problem isn't the Astros', it's Olney's.

Let the piling on commence

Yesterday the Astros traded a shortstop who has never played more than 97 games in a season, and has a career 6.1 WAR. In his career, the shortstop has missed time due to:

Wrist surgery (2009)
Sprained shoulder (2010)
Nerve damage in shoulder (2010)
Mononucleosis (2011)
Sprained right ankle (2012)
Peroneal nerve damage (2012)


In addition to this 28-year old shortstop who, in five seasons, has played in a total of 353 games, the Astros traded a 28-year old reliever who was 2-10 in 2012 with a 5.37 ERA/1.45 WHIP, and a 4.22 FIP who walked 4.35 batters per nine innings, and had a 7.31 ERA on the road. From June to August 2012, this reliever - who can throw it hard, but not accurately - had a 6.94 ERA and blew four saves.

In return for a 28-year old injury prone shortstop, and a 28-year old shaky reliever, the Astros received:
25-year old RHP Brad Peacock, the A's #4 prospect by John Sickels, and Baseball America's #2 A's prospect.
26-year old 1B/DH Chris Carter, their #9 prospect, who hit 16 homers in 260 PAs for the A's in 2012.
21-year old catcher Max Stassi, who is coming off of 2011 shoulder surgery, but signed with the A's for a 1st Round bonus.

But, given the reaction, you would think that the Astros just traded Jeff Bagwell to the Red Sox for Larry Andersen.

Ken Rosenthal spilled his turnip blood yet again last night, wringing his hands over the Astros' payroll. Rosenthal:
And as the Astros continue their teardown, it's certainly fair to ask how low can they go, how many games can they lose before they become an embarrassment to Major League Baseball.

(As an aside, last night's column looks an awful lot like Rosenthal's November column on the Astros' payroll - right down to the rhetorical question about surviving the AL West.)

Yahoo's Jeff Passan - who by all accounts is a very stand-up guy - took to Twitter last night, doing a pretty good Darren Rovell impression about the Astros payroll (minus the Twitter Polls and random instances of ALL CAPS). Even Buster Olney got in on it, blabbering about combined executive salaries totaling more than the Astros' payroll (or something like that). He also pointed out that Bud Norris, who is Chief Rainmaker now, will make as much in 2013 as Zack Greinke will in three weeks.

What would The Media say if the Astros had signed Josh Hamilton? Or Zack Greinke? "What are they DOING? Why won't they rebuild?" Oh, but that's just what Rosenthal has been pushing for going on four years now.

Rosenthal, who might very well wear a bow-tie on television this season to benefit the Astros, is now making a pretty severe about-face in regards to the Astros and their rebuilding plans. On June 4, 2012, Rosenthal thought the Astros should explore trading Jose Altuve.

Or how about this Rosenthal nugget, from June 2011, on trading Hunter Pence: They would save money. They would increase their inventory of young talent. They would kick-start a rebuilding process that is long overdue.

How about May 2010, when Rosenthal said the Astros were creatively bankrupt for not dealing Berkman and Oswalt, and asked "How many games must the Astros be behind for owner Drayton McLane to concede?"

Or September 2009, when Rosenthal said: "Frankly, it doesn't matter who the next manager is until the Astros realize they need to tear down and build back up again."

Or another September 2009 column, when Rosenthal wrote: "The Astros' next manager must navigate a tricky balance — the team is starting to infuse youth but also includes a number of declining veterans. McLane refuses to permit a complete overhaul, limiting his franchise's upside."

June 2009: "Trading players such as right-hander Roy Oswalt, shortstop Miguel Tejada and closer Jose Valverde could bring the team desperately needed young talent. Yet, McLane has passed on such opportunities numerous times before."

May 2009: Much as owner Drayton McLane hates to concede, he needs to understand that A) his team is going nowhere and B) his farm system ranks last in the majors, according to Baseball America...Trading closer Jose Valverde, shortstop Miguel Tejada and catcher Ivan Rodriguez would be a start. But Oswalt — even a declining Oswalt — could bring the most significant return.

So for almost four years, Rosenthal has been hammering the Astros about rebuilding. And when they finally do rebuild, he hammers them for being "an embarrassment."

I mentioned one of the above quotes to Rosenthal on Twitter, and he responded with:
There is a difference between what I suggested and completely gutting the team. You can thread the needle, too.

GOOD GOD I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS. No, you can't thread the needle. The Astros tried to thread the needle from 2006-2010 and look where it got them. One season where they almost made the playoffs, and a cumulative record 27 games under .500. Not bad enough to get a Top-Five draft pick. Not good enough to keep Phil Garner, Cecil Cooper, Brad Mills, Tim Purpura, or Ed Wade.

Let's take three teams, shall we? Let's pick three teams and decide which is the embarrassment to baseball:

Team A: Being investigated by the SEC for fraud thanks to its' horrific stadium deal, and roster malpractice. Spent $107m on 2012 payroll, only to finish 24 games under .500, last in their division.
Team B: Can't decide if they actually want to rebuild, and as a result, have a beautiful ballpark to go along with 20 straight seasons under .500.
Team C: Slashed payroll

This is rhetorical, but Team A is obviously the Marlins; Team B is the Pirates; and Team C is, of course, the Astros.

The Astros are looking for a Baseball Operations Analyst. Click the link, and look at the preferred requirements: MBA, experience in economic modeling, investment banking.

I do not regularly look at baseball jobs. I'm happy in my own job (even if I'm going to have to work an extra two hours today to make up for this rant.) But I'm guessing "Baseball Operations" and "Investment Banking" backgrounds do not typically collide.

This has become a mantra about the Astros, but for what will likely not be the last time: This front office does not care what anybody else thinks. They would prefer it if their front office did not think like anybody else.

This is going to be a rough season for the Astros. There are so many Unknowns that the only Knowns are that:

1) Attendance will be down.
2) Losses will abound.
3) 2013 will see a $20m investment in the farm system and another #1 pick.
4) The rebuilding will continue.

Luhnow, quoted by Rosenthal:
“I know it’s frustrating for fans that want immediate results at the big-league level. But this is the best chance we have to accomplish our result as soon as possible. We have to be consistent about that message.”

I'll take a few horrific seasons to return to the days when the Astros were a force in baseball. I'll accept it if it means that the National Media doesn't mail in a column about "OH THEY'RE GONNA BE BAD WHAT ARE THEY GONNA DO?" every six weeks. I will not stand by 81 wins to be The Goal, or twenty seasons of half-assing a rebuild.

Would you?

Olney: Wade isn't entirely to blame

Buster Olney's (Insider-only) column this morning addresses how Houston gets back to relevance.

He links back to Houston media quite a bit, but does warn this:
There are a lot of industry-wide questions about the direction of the organization, about what kind of owner Crane will be, and until that becomes clearer, some folks who have alternatives may choose to wait rather than join the Astros.

And on Wade's legacy:
(For many years) Houston was among the small handful of teams that honored the slot recommendations from the Commissioner's office, and in recent years, owner Drayton McLane drastically cut the Astros' budget. Wade wasn't given a lot to work with and has had some dead money to work through, and the sudden shift to austerity is the root cause for the disintegration of the franchise. (Note, Richard Justice says Wade's legacy is complicated).

Let's be clear about something, and remember this carefully, because we Astros fans are a little too close to the situation to be completely objective: these positions (GM and, potentially, manager) are not exactly the most attractive positions in baseball. Why? I don't think it needs to be explained but let's take a look at the challenges the incoming front office will be facing:

1. Depressed, angry fan base.
2. Transition between leagues.
3. Weak major-league roster, comparatively.
4. The fruits of Ed Wade's labor in trades/draft, won't be realized for at least two more years...if at all.

And that's just off the top of my head. Buster Olney talked to a "really smart executive" (yes, that's exactly how Olney described them) who said that the Astros were 4-7 years away from respectability. That's a really long time in my view, but it should tell you how far the franchise has fallen from being the toast of the National League. And even when they were the best team in the NL, the Astros weren't doing anything to keep them in that position. It's like they tried to out-Marlin the Marlins, and failed so, so miserably.

This is Drayton's legacy. Does the fall of the franchise - and the time it will take to rebuild it - outweigh the "glory years?" In my estimation, yes. Would you rather be in a solid band for 15 years, or a one-hit wonder? As of 2012, the Astros' "glory years" were a one-hit wonder.

Through this whole regime change, remember this sad fact: If the Astros are, as the super smart wonder executive says, 4-7 years away, what GM would want to step into that situation? Only two GMs in franchise history - Spec Richardson ('67-'75) and Gerry Hunsicker ('95-'04) - were given 7+ years at the helm.

This is an era in which GMs aren't given a whole lot of time to make their mark. Brian Sabean (1996), Billy Beane (1997), and Brian Cashman (1998) are the only GMs to take their places prior to 2000. What aspiring GM would want to take on a (potential) seven year project?

Hey, I think the Astros are moving to the AL. Like, now.

Buster Olney just tweeted:

Am told that the playoff fields will expand IMMEDIATELY, for 2012. Five teams in each league, with a one-game playoff between two wildcards.

Uh, so for that to happen, the Astros would move to the American League in time for next season. Looks like Carlos Lee will get to DH, after all. More to follow...

UPDATE: Hold on. That may not be right. They could possibly make that move without moving the Astros just yet.

Did you know...

...that Hunter Pence, as a virgin, gave birth to a young son in a manger who will go on to save the world? Buster Olney reports (Insider-only).

Braves working on damage control

So...Buster Olney tweeted that:

A strong belief in the ATL organization that the package they offered for Pence was markedly better than deal HOU made with Philadelphia.

What else could they possibly say? The last week has been a disaster for the Braves. They've lost two games on the Phillies in their last ten, not only is Jordan Schafer on the DL, but they just lost Nate McLouth to the DL, as well, leaving the Braves to call up 27-year old Jose Constanza, who had a .712 OPS in 86 games for Triple-A Gwinnett.

Add to that, they very badly need a corner outfielder, and were too stingy (allegedly) to pull the trigger on the two best corner outfielders available, losing out on Beltran to the Giants, and Pence to the division rival Phillies - who, on paper, just took care of their one of their few weaknesses.

The obvious response to this, from an Astros' fan's perspective is to say, "OH JEEZ ED WADE DID IT AGAIN TRADING WITH THE PHILLIES WHAT ARE WE THE PHILLIES FARM TEAM JON HEYMAN WAS RIGHT I HATE MYSELF AND ED WADE I'M THROUGH WITH THE ASTROS SCREW THEM WHEN DO THE TEXANS PLAY?

That would be weak-minded, because if you look at what Olney actually tweeted, the feeling that they had the better deal comes from within the organization. About half an hour before that tweet, Olney tweeted from an NL source who said the Braves "would have" included Minor in the deal. But "would have included," and "did include" Minor are two different things. Ed Wade set a Friday deadline, and he abided by it.

I can't help but feel like the Braves are working on some damage control with their fan base. A friend of mine - a Braves fan, texted this:

F***in fu**ers. Fu** them. G*****n phillies. I hope (the Phillies') d***s fall off. I hope Ben Franklin gets up and buries himself in Atlanta. I hope Pence goes 0-230 the rest of the year. F***ing stingy-a** Braves. Who needs four f***ing untouchables? Sh*t stains.

When I replied, "You could still get Bourn," he wrote back:

That would be too good to be true. We'll end up with mediocre-a** Willingham or can't hit for s**t Blo* J*b Upton. If we're lucky, we'll get Carlos Quentin. I'd rather have him over Ludwick.

(Three minutes go by)

Braves will probably get Willingham. Yipp fu***ing skip.

(This morning, after it had all set in)

Now the word is the BRaves are going for Coco Crisp. Talk about sloppy seconds. We deserve it. Braves? Ha! Atlanta Cowards! Afraid to give up two of many prospects for a real shot at October. Pu**ies.

I'm guessing my buddy is fairly representative of Braves fans who are pissed that the team didn't go for it, and by valuing prospects more highly than the Phillies, are waiting to see if they'll get Bourn, or Upton, Crisp, Willingham, or Ludwick.

Point is, the Braves have some work to do - and they're apparently using Buster Olney to do it.

Braves starting to cave?

Via Utley4God, Buster Olney apparently told Mike and Mike this morning that the Braves are willing to discuss their top four pitching prospects for Hunter Pence.

Olney doesn't think Pence gets dealt

In Buster Olney's (Insider-only) column today, we read this:

The Yankees are among the five teams focused on Kuroda, along with Boston, Cleveland, Detroit and Texas. The Yankees are keeping an eye on Kuroda. If Hunter Pence is traded -- and I still don't think he will be -- the bet here is it would be to Philadelphia, which would go all-in.

Also in Olney's post: Prediction! Braves get Willingham.

Phillies looking into Carlos Quentin

Buster Olney says that the Phillies have done background work looking into Carlos Quentin - a "middle-of-the-order bat they covet."

Beltran narrowing down his choices

Buster Olney just tweeted that the Race For Carlos Beltran is down to the following teams:

Boston, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Texas, and Cleveland.

Jon Heyman says that the Giants, Phillies, and Braves are the leaders for Beltran.

Now, the good thing - if you think trading Pence is a good and necessary move - is obviously that there is more demand for elite Right Fielders than there are elite Right Fielders, and yeah, I consider Pence an elite Right Fielder. If Philly or Atlanta end up with Beltran, you can reasonably expect that the other is going to try to counter with Pence. The AL Central is a crap-shoot, as is the AL West, so a player like Pence can change the outcome of those races. Boston's going to make the playoffs regardless (likely, anyway).

But aside from the Giants (whom I know very little about, except that they have Jack Keplinger), the other teams have prospects that could impact the Astros for years to come.

Phillies would be happy to give you Vance Worley

Buster Olney says the Phillies would prefer to build a package for Pence around pitcher Vance Worley.

Worley is the young (apparent-)phenom, 23 years old, 2008 3rd-round draft pick who is currently lighting up the National League.

So far in 2011, Worley is 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA/1.19 WHIP, with 48H/14ER, 48K:26BB in 62.1IP, and has posted a WAR of 2.0. This includes last night's ridiculous start against the Cubs, where he threw 4H/1ER, 7K:2BB in 8IP.

Perhaps you're worried that he's J.A. Happ, all over again. Happ enjoyed a favorable BABIP in the three years before joining the Astros (.266, .266, .262 in 2010 prior to joining the Astros). Worley's BABIP in 2011 is .254, but his FIP is 3.19 so far, so it's not terribly far off the mark. Worley is also getting batters to chase 29.4% of his pitches outside the zone, compared to 23.8% of Happ's pitches.

Crashburn Alley has a great post on Worley vs. Happ (captip to AstroBrit) where Bill says:
Everything about Worley and Happ, besides their handedness, is nearly identical, including their luck. Worley is due for the same regression that Happ went through, and it will not be pretty.

Astros open to trading Pence?

Buster Olney tweeted the following:

Sources: HOU shows willingness to trade Pence; rival executives expect he will move. Braves have prospects to make deal happen; we'll see.

Oh, Buster, we WILL see.

Olney's tweet comes about an hour and a half after David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted that that the Braves were nearing a deal for a RH hitter.

Everyone can maybe calm down about trading Hunter Pence

Buster Olney's (Insider-Only) column has a note about Hunter Pence:

...the Astros (are) signaling that they would have to be overwhelmed in any deal for Hunter Pence -- Boston and Atlanta and Philadelphia could decide that their need is not that significant, and they could settle for one of the second-tier guys like Francoeur or Willingham or Ludwick.