Know Your Enemy: Brett Myers

Finally the Astros get to play someone outside of the AL West. The Fightin' Franconas with his trusty sidekick Millsy head into Minute Maid Park for a three-game series. Tonight's first pitch is at 7:10pm Central and can be seen on HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Cleveland is 5-9, and have lost four straight, scoring nine runs in that L4 streak. The Astros and Indians have played each other eighteen times, with Houston maintaining a 10-8 series lead. They played in inter-league play last season and the Astros actually won that series, 2-1.

Taking the mound for the Indians is...

*Our 6'4" 240lb 32-year old pal Brett Myers!
*He went to Englewood High School in Jacksonville, FL - same high school as Ryan Freel and Daniel Murphy - and was an amateur boxer (foreshadowing).
*Myers was drafted with the 12th overall pick in the 1999 draft by the Phillies, joining Eric Munson, Jason Jennings and Casey Daigle as 1999 1st Round picks to eventually play for the Astros.
*Myers was with the Phillies until January 2010 when Ed Wade made one of his best moves and signed him to a 1yr/$5m deal. In 2011 Ed Wade made one of his worst moves by giving him an extension.
*On June 23, 2006 Myers was arrested and charged with assault after witnesses saw him punching his wife. In a hearing, his wife said she didn't want him prosecuted and the case was dismissed. 
*In 2007, Myers had the distinction of throwing the first and last pitches of the season for the Phillies. He began the year as the Opening Day starter, and because of injuries/general Phillies' bullpen sucking was moved into the closer role.
*On August 25, 2007 he called Philadelphia Inquirer's Sam Carchidi a retard. 
*Myers was traded to the White Sox last July for Matt Heidenreich, Blair Walters, and Chris Devenski. Heidenreich is at Corpus, Walters and Devenski (who threw a 16K no-hitter for Lexington last September) are at Lancaster.

*Myers will be making his 4th start of the season tonight, and in 16.1IP he has allowed 24H/16ER, 8K:3BB, and 8HR. Regard:

April 4 @ Toronto: 5IP, 7H/7ER, 0K:2BB, 4HR
April 9 v New York: 5.1IP, 11H/7ER, 4K:0BB, 3HR
April 14 v Chicago: 6IP, 6H/2ER, 4K:1BB, 1HR

*In 75PAs this season, Myers has been ahead in the count for 14 of them. When the batter gets ahead (30PAs), they have a 1.756 OPS.
*He has only faced three current Astros - Carlos Pena (.626 OPS in 23 PAs), Ronny Cedeno (.205 OPS in 15 PAs) and Rick Ankiel (1.286 OPS in 7 PAs.)

Myers is also responsible for a very funny prank on Kyle Kendrick:


*Lucas Harrell pitches for the Astros. In his four starts, he has allowed 19H/10ER, 11K:8BB and 4HR. This is skewed by a terrible 4.1IP 7H/8ER, 2K:5BB in 4.1IP against Oakland (of course Oakland).
*In his last start at Los Angeles (the Veras Blown Save game), he held the Angels to 6H/1ER, 5K:1BB in 5.2IP.
*We're talking about 31 total PAs, but current Indians are hitting .154/.258/.154 against Harrell.

Chris Devenski is PTBNL in Myers deal

The Brett Myers trade is now complete, and RHP Chris Devenski is the PTBNL. He was Chicago's 25th round selection last year out of Cal State Fullerton and didn't sign until August, hence his PTBNL status in this deal, as it hadn't yet been a year since his signing until now.

Devenski, 21, is a 6'3", 195 lb. starter/reliever who has spent the season with the Class A Kannapolis Intimidators. He's 6-5 with a 4.23 ERA, 7.9 K/9 in 61.2 IP over 19 games (8 starts) this year, but looking at his MiLB.com stats page, it appears he was moved from the bullpen to the rotation on June 25. He has a 3.92 ERA as a starter since then, including a 7 IP / 3 H / 1 R performance in his most recent start on July 31.

He will report to Class A Lexington.

Astros trade Brett Myers to White Sox

Trader Jeff! Ken Rosenthal just tweeted that Houston has traded Brett Myers to the White Sox.

2:17pm - Brian McTaggart confirms the deal

2:33pm - Astros announce Myers to White Sox for RHP Matt Heidenreich, LHP Blair Walters, and a PTBNL

2:33pm - Heidenreich will join AA Corpus; Walters is going to High-A Lancaster

2:34pm - The Astros have also claimed RHP Mark Hamburger off waivers from San Diego

2:37pm - Hamburger will join AAA Oklahoma City

2:49pm - The White Sox will pay $1 million of Myers' remaining salary this season, plus receive money towards Myers' 2013 salary or a buyout

--

Matt Heidenreich is a 21-year-old starter from AA Birmingham. He's 9-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 18 games split between High-A and AA this season.

Blair Walters is a 22-year-old starter from High-A Winston-Salem. He is 4-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 18 games split between A and High-A this year.

Mark Hamburger is a 25-year-old reliever with a 6.75 ERA in 57.1 IP split between AAA Round Rock (Rangers) and AAA Tuscon (Padres). Hamburger had a 4.50 ERA in 8 innings with the Rangers last season.

Post-trade tranzactionz

In light of this morning's mega-deal, we've got a whole bundle of roster moves for you:

*Dallas Keuchel will be recalled from OKC to take J.A. Happ's spot in the rotation, starting tomorrow.
*Francisco Cordero and Ben Francisco will join the big club today in Phoenix, taking Happ's and Lyon's immediate spots, but another move will need to make room for Keuchel by tomorrow's game.

Thanks to the Chronicle, we learn:

*Asher Wojciechowski is headed to AA Corpus Christi.
*Carlos Perez will go to high-A Lancaster.
*David Rollins is going to low-A Lexington.
*Joe Musgrove will report to Rookie-ball Greeneville.

Also, courtesy of Greg Rajan, catcher Chris Wallace is moving up to OKC from Corpus, and catcher Ben Heath is moving up to Corpus from Lancaster (where Perez will take his spot).

And, not a transaction, but Jeff Luhnow says that even with Cordero's arrival, Brett Myers remains the Astros' closer... "for now."

New York teams may or may not be in on Wandy, Myers

With a thank ya to MLBTR, we find:

*The Mets have evidently checked in on Brett Myers, but they "haven't been very aggressive" yet, says  Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger.

*In spite of the Yankees scouting presence at his start yesterday, Mark Carig of the Star-Ledger reports that Wandy is "not even on their radar." Which is either obviously false, or they lost interest after yesterday's debacle. Or they were really there to check out Clayton Richard.

Rosenthal talks Astros

Ken Rosenthal had a few Astros notes this morning:

While the Cardinals ponder their next move after they now know Chris Carpenter needs season-ending surgery, Rosenthal thinks perhaps Wandy or Myers make logical trade partners.

The Astros were willing to include "significant cash" to get Lee to LA and get Garrett Gould in return, but Carlos Lee balked at California's state income tax rate, and that was a reason he didn't love the idea of going to the Dodgers. Had Lee at least acted like he wanted to play in LA, the Dodgers apparently would have helped bridge the gap.

California's state income tax, for people who make over $1m, is 10.3% - and that's in addition to the 35% that the federal government would take. So Lee didn't want to go for what would be about $910,000.

Jed Lowrie, Rosenthal also notes, is essentially unavailable.

Astros June Recap

Well, June sucked, huh? The team entered June with a 22-29 record, 6.5 games behind the Reds for the division lead. Over the course of the month, they went 10-17, got Perfect Gamed by Matt Cain, "hit" .238/.307/.402 as a team, left 164 runners on base, and left June 11.5 back of the Reds.

Some more numbers:
*The Astros won two series all month: against the White Sox and Indians, somehow.
*On the road in June, the Astros were 3-10, with a -41 run differential, getting outscored 44-85.
*The Astros were held to two or fewer runs 12 times in June.
*The pitching staff allowed a .274/.333/.437 slash line. Starters allowed a .725 OPS, while the bullpen allowed an .862 OPS and a 7.03 ERA.
*The Astros were shut out five times this month. The last time they were shut out 5+ times in a single calendar month was in July 2010.

Top Performers:
Jason Castro: .302/.367/.453, 12K:6BB in 60 PAs.
Lucas Harrell: .228/.270/.339 allowed, 1.07 WHIP.


Bottom-Feeders:
Jordan Schafer: .176/.288/.250, .538 OPS, 26K in 80 PAs
Wandy Rodriguez: .306/.341/.508 allowed, 17K in 30IP.
Brett Myers: .386/.429/.545 allowed, .395 BABIP.
Fernando Rodriguez: .229/.333/.486, 11.17 ERA / 1.45 WHIP.

Davidoff: Mets may get in on Brett Myers

The Mets are turning to Bobby Parnell for saves, that means they need some bullpen help, and the New York Post's Ken Davidoff mentions Brett Myers as a possible solution.

Brett Myers needs to finish 25 more games

According to Jon Paul Morosi, Brett Myers just needs to finish 25 more games in order for his 2013 $10m option to vest - though that isn't the only way for it to vest, as well. Ed Wade figured him a right nice way to get his cabbage for 2013.

That said, the $3m buyout for his contract might not scare anybody off:
“It’s not that scary of an option,” one rival executive said of Myers. “I wouldn’t imagine it’s going to be a huge hindrance (to his trade value).”

Jon Heyman announces Wandy as the "best lefty who could go"

Everyone's favorite Borasite, Jon Heyman, ranks the potential market for teams looking to add pieces at the deadline. What does that mean for Astros fans?

Wandy is #4, behind three NL Central pitchers:
The $33 million owed through 2014 if he's traded (the '14 option becomes a player option if dealt) doesn't look too terrible now for this very solid lefthander (4-4, 2.49 ERA) who could help a lot of teams. Rodriguez is the best lefty who could go.

Brett Myers is #14:
He's a rare closer having an excellent season (12 of 13 saves, 0.92 WHIP), but his contract is still silly: $11 million this year, a $10 million option for next year with a $3 million buyout. Good move by Houston to convert him, though.

We also have Brandon Lyon (#19) and Carlos Lee (#26) on the list. Read at your own peril.

Brett Myers was baffled by Mills' usage

Bringing in Myers in the 10th inning of a tie game on the road is totally fine with me. I totally agree with Zachary Levine. But Brett Myers? He's not so sure:

“Honestly, I’ve been around and I’ve closed before and coming into a tie ballgame on the road, I was prepared but I don’t know; it just baffled me a little bit. But I just go out there and do my job. That’s all I can do. When called upon, just go out there and do it.”

Perhaps he doesn't remember - why would he - September 19, 2007, when Charlie Manuel sent Myers out in the 10th inning of a tie game at St. Louis. He gave up two hits and the game-winning run after 0.2IP, which dropped the Phillies to 2.5 games back of the Mets with 10 games to play (spoiler alert: Philadelphia would win the NL East 10 games later). I'd forget it, too. But Baseball-Reference NEVER FORGETS.

Jeff Luhnow denies he's shopping Myers

Yesterday, USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Astros were shopping closer Brett Myers. Jeff Luhnow denied that report today.

Astros on the ESPN Top 500

ESPN ranked the Top 500 players in Major League Baseball. Here are the Astros represented:

#166: Wandy Rodriguez
#314: Brett Myers
#323: Bud Norris
#326: Carlos Lee
#398: Jed Lowrie
#432: Jose Altuve
#500: J.D. Martinez

Campfire Talk: Carlos Lee is 24 pounds overweight

The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers has a quick note about Carlos Lee, saying that the Astros had hoped he would report at 250 pounds, and instead came in at 274.

Rogers:
He and Brett Myers aren't exactly role models for a young team.

Jeff Luhnow laughs at your "$11m closer!" argument

Anthony Castrovince has an article on Brett Myers, in which Jeff Luhnow addresses the concerns about paying a closer $11m for a team that lost 106 games last year.

Luhnow:
"It's funny, because there's a very basic concept that you learn in business school, which is forget sunk costs (I think he's reading you, Trostel). From where I'm standing, it doesn't matter what we're paying Myers this year, because that contract is signed, and we owe him that. So it makes no sense to justify where that asset is based off the market value of that position externally. If he can help us more in the bullpen, then he can help us more in the bullpen. And then it opens up the opportunity to evaluate somebody else that's ready that maybe you wouldn't have a chance to.

(and as though he read this piece):
"I thought it was funny how all of a sudden people were talking about how expensive our bullpen is. It's not like we went out and signed an $11 million closer. It's just that he's here, and that's where he goes."

Brett Myers' fastball in 2011

So I played around with (the invaluable) Brooks Baseball Brett Myers card, because I'm curious about his velocity in 2011. So let's look.

In April 2011, Myers threw his four-seamer 27% of the time for an average of 89.39mph.
May 2011: 28%, 89.06mph
June 2011: 19%, 89.25mph
July 2011: 25%, 88.95mph
August 2011: 31%, 90.35mph
September 2011: 17%, 89.36mph

How about 2010?
April 2010: 21%, 90.8mph
May 2010: 19%, 90.6mph
June 2010: 19%, 90.7mph
July 2010: 16%, 90.5mph
August 2010: 10%, 89.8mph
September 2010: 17%, 89.3mph

So Myers' fastball averaged over 90mph from April-July 2010, and has only enjoyed one month above 90mph avg (Aug 2011 - where he threw a higher percentage of four-seamers - by far) since July 2010.

This is more of a Public Service Announcement post than anything, other than that it doesn't look like Myers' velocity took a big hit from one month to the next - meaning it's not as though he went from throwing 94mph to throwing 87mph one month to the next. Do with this information what you will.

More on this Brett Myers thing

...I've now had some time to think more about this Brett Myers situation. Freeing up 200IP in the rotation is a major plus for a guy who took a significant step backwards in 2011 (as if no one could have predicted such a thing), the first year of a possible three-year deal.

Myers just wasn't as effective in 2011 - when he was making $8m - as opposed to 2010, when he was making $3.1m. That's not good economics. We can debate all day about how Wade should have traded Myers at the 2010 trade deadline, but he didn't, and now the Astros have the 3rd-most expensive closer in basbeall.

But if Jeff Luhnow wants to create an atmosphere of winning, then the bullpen had to be addressed. The fact is, the Astros lost 22 games in 2011 when they were either ahead or tied going into the 8th inning. If the Astros hold on to half of those leads, their record is 67-95. Not fun, by any means, but not considered one of the worst teams of all time.

Maybe his velocity will return. Mitch Williams said on Clubhouse Confidential that Myers wasn't all that smart, and maybe a reliever role was more suited for Myers than starting, and that Myers preferred to come out of the bullpen. That may all be well and good, but we're also looking at a player's velocity from five years ago as a guide for what his fastball can do. And I'm a touch uncomfortable with that.

Also, freeing up a rotation spot is a good idea for the Astros to see what they have in their young arms. Reportedly. But McTaggart said yesterday that the move "all but guarantees" a spot for Livan Hernandez. Should that be the course of action, the Astros traded 200+IP from a 30-year old pitcher for 200+IP from a 37-year old pitcher.

In 2011, Myers threw 216IP at an 85 ERA+. Livan Hernandez threw 175.1IP at an 87 ERA+_with a higher WHIP (1.40 for Livan, 1.31 for Myers). I'm struggling to see how this is an upgrade. If Myers' spot would be used for seeing what Lyles/Harrell/Sosa/Weiland could do (and yes, that could still happen), it would be a different matter altogether - for me, anyway, humble pants-less basement-dwelling momma's boy blogger.

And what of his trade value? Myers will get $11m this season, and his contract has been reworked to where his $10m vesting option for 2013 can be reached. Should Myers be traded on July 31, that would be before the Astros' 105th game of the season (there's a brutal stretch of 20 games in 20 days immediately following the All Star Game), where - if we break down $11m into 162 games - he would be owed about $3.9m for the rest of the season. Depending on whether or not his option vests, receiving teams would be inheriting that ~$3.9m plus the $10m option, should it vest, or the $3m buyout. That's an awful lot of scratch for a reliever, especially one who had not previously relieved for five years. The Astros would have to eat a lot of the contract, regardless of his role, anyway, so it's a question of whether a team would be willing to pay half ($7m-ish) for whatever Myers does in the first half, and then projects over the next season and a half.

Ultimately, it's a matter of whether or not Myers can do the job. And whether or not his rotation replacement can, as well. That remains to be seen. I don't hate the idea. But I don't love it, either.

On Brett Myers - Sunk costs and player development - An exercise in rambling

My first impression is that I don't like this move. Everything being equal, a pitcher that can give you 200 innings is much more valuable than one who can give you 60 innings.

But everything may not be equal. Myers' pitched better out of the pen in 2007 than he has at any other time.

So, even if he pitches as well as Myers did that one year in Philly, what business does Houston have paying $11M for a relief pitcher? In an ideal situation I'd like to think GM Jeff Luhnow would know better. But this isn't an ideal situation. After all, it's not like he signed Myers this off-season for $11M to be our closer. So once we accept the fact that Myers' money is a sunk cost, one that Luhnow has zero control over, it may put this decision in a better light.

The money's going to be paid regardless, so where is he of most help on the field  in 2012? Or maybe we should ask are there other pitchers we'd like to see in the starter role instead of Myers? For the long-term success of the franchise are we better off having an extra rotation spot for (hopefully) a young pitcher? And what effect does having a potentially stable bullpen that's not blowing every other lead it inherits have on a developing rotation?

Now, if we move Myers to the 'pen just to see Zach Duke turn in 120 innings of 4.80 ERA "pitching" then this decision just seems silly.

FanGraphs' response

Eno Sarris has a post up at FanGraphs about Myers' move, and he brings up a lot of the financial points we brought up earlier today.

Your close:
Long term, it will be more important for the Astros to sort out their starting rotation than their bullpen. In a strange twist, that’s why it makes sense to move a present-tense resource in Myers to the bullpen — because doing so will help them figure out what they have among their bevy of mediocre pitching prospects. If one of them steps to the fore and proves he’s a Major League starter this year, the team will have gotten what they wanted from moving Myers to the pen.

Myers moving to closer

Well, uh, ahem, I don't even

Okay, so the news out of Astros camp this morning is that Brett Myers is moving from the rotation to the closer spot.

I don't understand. Myers threw 216IP in 2011, tied for 17th-most in all of baseball, and now the Astros are going to cut his innings by 30-40% (I meant, "to," instead of "by") of that total. And with Lyon and Myers in the bullpen, that's $16m+ for the 8th-9th innings.

The idea was Jeff Luhnow's, says Alyson Footer:
Jeff Luhnow first approached Mills with the idea for Myers to close. Mills thought about it and agreed. Then they brought it to Myers.

Expanded quote from Luhnow:
"From my standpoint, we have some depth in the rotation between Duke, Livan, Happ, Sosa and Harrell and all the young guys. We feel like we're in pretty good shape there and have some choices. We felt like we were a little exposed in the bullpen, and having a guy who's been successful in that role and who's got the mentality and stuff to do well takes pressure of Brandon Lyon coming off an injury and doesn't put pressure on young kids like David Carpenter and Wilton Lopez."

Let's try to figure this out:

(1) The Astros have more rotation arms than they do bullpen arms. The majority of the arms the Astros have vying for spots are gunning for rotation spots, not necessarily a bullpen job. With Lyles, Livan Hernandez, Zach Duke, et al, the Astros needed someone reliable at the back end of the bullpen, and that apparently didn't include Brandon Lyon or David Carpenter. Your rotation is currently Wandy, Norris, Happ, and Lyles/Livan/Weiland/Sosa/Harrell/Duke. It simply opens up a spot for a *more effective* starter.

(2) Myers had better "stuff" as a reliever. Zachary Levine pointed out that FanGraphs had Myers' fastball velocity at 88.4mph in 2011, down from 92.1mph in 2007 when he came out of the bullpen.

(3) If there's one thing that's clear from this, it's that (as John Royal pointed out) the one GM in the world who thought Myers was worth $10m+ was Ed Wade. Financial breakdown of MLB's "Top 20" closers:

Mariano Rivera: $15m
Jonathan Papelbon: $11.0058m (not kidding)
Brett Myers: $11m
Jose Valverde: $9m
Brian Wilson: $8.5m
Carlos Marmol: $7m
Heath Bell: $6m
Leo Nunez*: $6m
Joakim Soria: $6m
Brandon League: $5m
J.J. Putz: $4.5m
Francisco Cordero: $4.5m
Chris Perez: $4.5m
Joel Hanrahan: $4.1m
Kyle Farnsworth: $3.3m
Sergio Santos: $1m
Neftali Feliz: $451K (pre-arb)
John Axford: $443K (pre-arb)
Craig Kimbrel: $419K (pre-arb)
Drew Storen: $418K (pre-arb)
Jordan Walden: $414K (pre-arb)

* - or whatever his name is

Yes, Brett Myers will be the 3rd-highest paid closer in all of baseball in 2012, after throwing 439.2IP over the last two seasons.