*A three-run 7th inning helped propel the Astros to a 5-2 win over Seattle, stopping the Mariners' win streak at six. Lance McCullers made his first start in 16 days and threw 5IP, 4H/1ER, 8K:0BB, getting pulled after 76 pitches. McCullers:
You just feel really, really fresh, so that's something to get used to. But, I got out there and just trusted (McCann), and tried to think about my mechanics more than how my arm was feeling.
*Josh Reddick was 1x4 with a 2-run home run and made two run-saving diving catches as a left fielder. Reddick:
Fortunately I got some good breaks tonight and was able to hold onto the ball and keep them out of the lights. If either of those balls gets in the lights I might be in trouble. Just got to keep working at it.
*Ken Giles sure did make things interesting in the 9th. With a 5-1 lead, Giles gave up a double and walked three batters.
*The Astros are 51-25 (remember they were 51-111 in 2013) and are 28-9 on the road. Every other AL West team - besides Seattle, of course - won last night, so the lead is at 12.5 games.
*Brad Peacock is at home with his wife and new baby, so Frankie Tuesday will start in his place today at Seattle. Which means that, with McCullers' activation yesterday, Jordan Jankowski was recalled from Fresno and Joe Musgrove was sent down. Hinch, on Musgrove:
We've got to get him back to executing the way that he does when he's successful. He's had a hard time executing his pitches, specifically late in the count, and he's had some big innings implode on him in the outings in which he's struggled. The other reason is we need a full complement of relievers to keep guys rested and make sure I'm not overusing guys, and we have an opportunity to accomplish both of those things by sending Musgrove out.
In 82 Plate Appearances in which the batter was ahead against Musgrove, he has allowed a .426/.573/.885 slash line.
*Marwin Gonzalez was a late scratch Saturday with oblique tightness.
*Sporting News took a look at the 2017 Astros' numbers and whether they held up against the famed SI cover's predictions.
*Kyle Tucker hit his 4th home run in his last six games in last night's Hooks win. In 20 games Jason Martin is hitting .354/.386/.633 and also homered last night for Corpus.
*Astros 9th-Round pick Michael Papierski hit two home runs - one from each side of the plate - to help LSU beat Oregon State and go to the College World Series finals.
*This Tacoma columnist compares the 2017 Astros to the 2001 Mariners.
*Ken Rosenthal says a trade involving Johnny Cueto could be problematic for the Giants because of his opt-out clause.
*As someone who deals with this occasionally, it took some courage for Roberto Osuna to talk about his anxiety.
*Written a while ago, I just got around to reading this excellent postmortem of the University of Buffalo's elimination of the baseball program and how, even in western New York, football ruins everything.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Johnny Cueto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Johnny Cueto. Show all posts
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Tuesday Morning Hot Links
*The Astros made a whole bunch of internal personnel changes yesterday. Notably:
-Quinton McCracken, who was director of player development and also apparently a possible GM candidate, is now Director of Player Personnel.
-Allen Rowin, who was assistant director of player development is now the Director of Minor League Operations
-Brandon Taubman is Director of Baseball Operations
-Mike Fast is Director of Research & Development
-Pete Putila is Assistant Director of Minor League Operations
-Tom Koch-Wiser is Manager of Advance Scouting
-Bill Firkus is Director of Sports Medicine and Performance
Luhnow, on the moves:
This is just sort of a next step, next wave. I challenged every functional leader to come up with a five-year vision of...how we can be the best, and a lot of the things you're seeing are as a result of that initiative.
Two weeks ago McCracken and Rowin were mentioned by Evan Drellich in a Chronicle piece about how Luhnow was looking to alter the landscape of the front office.
*Joel Sherman wrote yesterday about how Daniel Murphy's breakout postseason could put him in line for Chase Headley money (4yrs/$52m). Sherman asked executives where Murphy would land should he make it to free agency. First team up? Houston:
...because they love versatility and could use Murphy at first, third and DH, and want to diversify a lineup that strikes out too much. In addition, in private Astros notes leaked last year, it was revealed Houston and New York discussed a trade of Murphy for shortstop Jonathan Villar.
Ahhh, good old Cardinals. While I look to see how close the Cardinals' front office is to getting indicted by a federal grand jury, I'll go along with TCB's take on this one: where would Murphy play? Doesn't mean that logjam can't be cleared with some trades or non-tenders, but it's hard to see happening.
*Johnny Cueto's Game 3 start last night:
2IP, 6H/8ER, 2K:4BB, HBP, HR.
I don't know if I'm elated or forlorn.
*Palm Beach County commissioners are scheduled to vote this morning on approving the budget that will allow the Astros/Nationals to begin work on their new Spring Training site. Work has not yet started, but it's already over budget by $9m.
*Bruce Markusen has been writing up a Where Are They Now of Jim Bouton's Ball Four and got to the 1969 Houston Astros.
-Quinton McCracken, who was director of player development and also apparently a possible GM candidate, is now Director of Player Personnel.
-Allen Rowin, who was assistant director of player development is now the Director of Minor League Operations
-Brandon Taubman is Director of Baseball Operations
-Mike Fast is Director of Research & Development
-Pete Putila is Assistant Director of Minor League Operations
-Tom Koch-Wiser is Manager of Advance Scouting
-Bill Firkus is Director of Sports Medicine and Performance
Luhnow, on the moves:
This is just sort of a next step, next wave. I challenged every functional leader to come up with a five-year vision of...how we can be the best, and a lot of the things you're seeing are as a result of that initiative.
Two weeks ago McCracken and Rowin were mentioned by Evan Drellich in a Chronicle piece about how Luhnow was looking to alter the landscape of the front office.
*Joel Sherman wrote yesterday about how Daniel Murphy's breakout postseason could put him in line for Chase Headley money (4yrs/$52m). Sherman asked executives where Murphy would land should he make it to free agency. First team up? Houston:
...because they love versatility and could use Murphy at first, third and DH, and want to diversify a lineup that strikes out too much. In addition, in private Astros notes leaked last year, it was revealed Houston and New York discussed a trade of Murphy for shortstop Jonathan Villar.
Ahhh, good old Cardinals. While I look to see how close the Cardinals' front office is to getting indicted by a federal grand jury, I'll go along with TCB's take on this one: where would Murphy play? Doesn't mean that logjam can't be cleared with some trades or non-tenders, but it's hard to see happening.
*Johnny Cueto's Game 3 start last night:
2IP, 6H/8ER, 2K:4BB, HBP, HR.
With that Josh Donaldson home run, Johnny Cueto is the first pitcher in playoff history to go two or fewer IP and give up eight or more ER.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 20, 2015
I don't know if I'm elated or forlorn.
*Palm Beach County commissioners are scheduled to vote this morning on approving the budget that will allow the Astros/Nationals to begin work on their new Spring Training site. Work has not yet started, but it's already over budget by $9m.
*Bruce Markusen has been writing up a Where Are They Now of Jim Bouton's Ball Four and got to the 1969 Houston Astros.
Friday, October 9, 2015
ALDS Game 2: Kazmir v. Cueto breakdown
So the Astros throw Scott Kazmir against Johnny Cueto in Game 2 of the American League Division Series. Here's what you knead to no:
Scott Kazmir has had Teh Bads.
It's been almost a month since Kazmir made it out of the 5th inning, coming at Texas on September 14, when he threw 7IP, 5H/2ER, 4K:1BB - a game that the Astros lost during the Arlington Chainsaw Massacre.
Since then, Kazmir has made three starts: 11.2IP, 22H/13ER, 6K:6BB, 3HBP, 5HR allowed for a slash line of .400/.484/.782 - a 1.266 OPS on a .386 BABIP. The Astros won two of those three games, mainly because they scored 17 runs in those games and pulled Kazmir before he could be the deadline acquisition that actively killed the Astros' season.
Out of 139 pitchers to throw 20+ IP in September/October, Kazmir is 127th in ERA-. His 7.03 FIP is 137th, and his 5.99 xFIP is 138th, only better than Hector Santiago. The Astros are gambling big on Scott Kazmir.
Kazmir's pitches aren't fooling anyone
In September/October, opponents have a .558 SLG against his four-seam fastball, a .515 SLG off his sinker, a .476 SLG off his changeup, and a ridiculous 1.875 SLG off his slider (8 ABs: three doubles, two homers, and an HBP). He has had 11 total ABs in which he threw his curve and cutter, which isn't much at all.
Obviously these numbers are far higher than his 2015 totals, so the Astros are betting that a rough stretch is just that, and Kazmir will get his crap together for a playoff game.
But Kazmir has been pretty good against the Royals.
Kazmir's first start for the Astros was on July 24 at Kansas City, and he made us all get a little #damp by throwing 7IP, 3H/0ER, 3K:1BB. In 292 plate appearances against Kazmir, current Royals players are hitting .244/.287.,374.
Mike Moustakas is 2x13, Lorenzo Cain is 4x24, Alex Gordon is 6x34, Kendrys Morales is 5x18, Alcides Escobar is 7x24. Omar Infante, however, is 11x27 with four doubles, two homers, 2K:3BB, for a 1.244 OPS against Kazmir.
Johnny Cueto has been inconsistent
In his last seven starts, Cueto has thrown 40.1IP, 56H/25ER, 24K:12BB for a 5.58 ERA/1.69 WHIP, and that includes his last start at Minnesota in which he allowed 6H/1ER, 4K:4BB in 5IP. He had racked up three straight decent starts from September 18-29 in which he threw 20IP, 23H/8ER, 11K:5BB.
Johnny Cueto kills lefties
On the year, lefties are hitting .215/.266/.332 against Cueto. He throws his four-seam fastball to lefty hitters most often, and is getting a .148 average and a .205 SLG off of it. If the lefty Astros hitters can take advantage of hopping on the slider, opponents have a .517 SLG in 29 at-bats ending on a slider. That's the pitch opponents have don't the most damage on - all hitters have a .304 average and a .536 SLG on it. His curveball, too - .280 average/.520 SLG and a .240 ISO. So he destroys batters with his four-seam and sinker, but is vulnerable on his other pitches.
Johnny Cueto's numbers against Houston look good and don't matter.
Cueto has only faced current Astros for 95 plate appearances and is allowing a .241/.305/.425 line. Colby Rasmus is 9x27 with 6K:3BB and a .956 OPS. Carlos Gomez is 4x12 with two homers (but is not in the lineup today). Jason Castro and Mike Fiers (yeah, the pitcher) are a combined 0x15, so let's not even worry about that. He has never faced Correa, Gattis, Springer, or Marisnick - who are all in the lineup today.
Scott Kazmir has had Teh Bads.
It's been almost a month since Kazmir made it out of the 5th inning, coming at Texas on September 14, when he threw 7IP, 5H/2ER, 4K:1BB - a game that the Astros lost during the Arlington Chainsaw Massacre.
Since then, Kazmir has made three starts: 11.2IP, 22H/13ER, 6K:6BB, 3HBP, 5HR allowed for a slash line of .400/.484/.782 - a 1.266 OPS on a .386 BABIP. The Astros won two of those three games, mainly because they scored 17 runs in those games and pulled Kazmir before he could be the deadline acquisition that actively killed the Astros' season.
Out of 139 pitchers to throw 20+ IP in September/October, Kazmir is 127th in ERA-. His 7.03 FIP is 137th, and his 5.99 xFIP is 138th, only better than Hector Santiago. The Astros are gambling big on Scott Kazmir.
Kazmir's pitches aren't fooling anyone
In September/October, opponents have a .558 SLG against his four-seam fastball, a .515 SLG off his sinker, a .476 SLG off his changeup, and a ridiculous 1.875 SLG off his slider (8 ABs: three doubles, two homers, and an HBP). He has had 11 total ABs in which he threw his curve and cutter, which isn't much at all.
Obviously these numbers are far higher than his 2015 totals, so the Astros are betting that a rough stretch is just that, and Kazmir will get his crap together for a playoff game.
But Kazmir has been pretty good against the Royals.
Kazmir's first start for the Astros was on July 24 at Kansas City, and he made us all get a little #damp by throwing 7IP, 3H/0ER, 3K:1BB. In 292 plate appearances against Kazmir, current Royals players are hitting .244/.287.,374.
Mike Moustakas is 2x13, Lorenzo Cain is 4x24, Alex Gordon is 6x34, Kendrys Morales is 5x18, Alcides Escobar is 7x24. Omar Infante, however, is 11x27 with four doubles, two homers, 2K:3BB, for a 1.244 OPS against Kazmir.
Johnny Cueto has been inconsistent
In his last seven starts, Cueto has thrown 40.1IP, 56H/25ER, 24K:12BB for a 5.58 ERA/1.69 WHIP, and that includes his last start at Minnesota in which he allowed 6H/1ER, 4K:4BB in 5IP. He had racked up three straight decent starts from September 18-29 in which he threw 20IP, 23H/8ER, 11K:5BB.
Johnny Cueto kills lefties
On the year, lefties are hitting .215/.266/.332 against Cueto. He throws his four-seam fastball to lefty hitters most often, and is getting a .148 average and a .205 SLG off of it. If the lefty Astros hitters can take advantage of hopping on the slider, opponents have a .517 SLG in 29 at-bats ending on a slider. That's the pitch opponents have don't the most damage on - all hitters have a .304 average and a .536 SLG on it. His curveball, too - .280 average/.520 SLG and a .240 ISO. So he destroys batters with his four-seam and sinker, but is vulnerable on his other pitches.
Johnny Cueto's numbers against Houston look good and don't matter.
Cueto has only faced current Astros for 95 plate appearances and is allowing a .241/.305/.425 line. Colby Rasmus is 9x27 with 6K:3BB and a .956 OPS. Carlos Gomez is 4x12 with two homers (but is not in the lineup today). Jason Castro and Mike Fiers (yeah, the pitcher) are a combined 0x15, so let's not even worry about that. He has never faced Correa, Gattis, Springer, or Marisnick - who are all in the lineup today.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Thursday Morning Hot Links
AL West Recap: The Astros won, and of course the Angels did too because Scioscia is actually a sorcerer. The Rangers won because the Rockies are useless, the A's won, as well. Only the Mariners lost. Despite this, the Astros playoff chances jumped from 65% to 70% on FanGraphs.
*Preston Tucker homered twice in last night's 4-2 win over the Red Sox. Tucker hit .183/.247/.328 from June 3 - July 1. But starting with the nine-game road trip on July 3 through last night? .321/.357/.604.
*Collin McHugh says the fans are the real MVP.
Honestly our fan base has been really, really supportive, really encouraging throughout the whole thing. And coming from New York, it's refreshing. It's refreshing to have fans who care about baseball and care about people, and you know, you can have both.
*McCullers will pitch tonight, then the rotation will be Feldman, Keuchel, Velasquez against Kansas City. Speaking of McCullers, Brent Strom said his breaking ball is "Kimbrel-like."
Trade Deadline Links
*Commissioner Rob Manfred is interested in pushing back the Trade Deadling, due to the extra Wild Card spot.
*The Astros are in on "every rental" player, according to Jayson Stark, checking in on Cueto, Samardzija, and Dan...this can't be right, yeah, I guess it is, Dan Haren.
*Susan Slusser says that Scott Kazmir may land in Houston.
*The Tigers won't decide if they're selling until after Sunday.
*Stark says the four likely destinations for Cole Hamels - if he's traded at all - are: Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, or Rangers.
*Jeff Luhnow used the A's as a cautionary tale to the New York Post's Joel Sherman:
We saw Oakland trade away pretty good players last year to win a division and they ended up getting eliminated in the wild-card game.
*Anthony Castrovince wants to see the Astros trade for David Price
Non-Astros link of the day
Rolling Stone: Meet the man who flies around the world for free
*Preston Tucker homered twice in last night's 4-2 win over the Red Sox. Tucker hit .183/.247/.328 from June 3 - July 1. But starting with the nine-game road trip on July 3 through last night? .321/.357/.604.
*Collin McHugh says the fans are the real MVP.
Honestly our fan base has been really, really supportive, really encouraging throughout the whole thing. And coming from New York, it's refreshing. It's refreshing to have fans who care about baseball and care about people, and you know, you can have both.
*McCullers will pitch tonight, then the rotation will be Feldman, Keuchel, Velasquez against Kansas City. Speaking of McCullers, Brent Strom said his breaking ball is "Kimbrel-like."
Trade Deadline Links
*Commissioner Rob Manfred is interested in pushing back the Trade Deadling, due to the extra Wild Card spot.
*The Astros are in on "every rental" player, according to Jayson Stark, checking in on Cueto, Samardzija, and Dan...this can't be right, yeah, I guess it is, Dan Haren.
*Susan Slusser says that Scott Kazmir may land in Houston.
*The Tigers won't decide if they're selling until after Sunday.
*Stark says the four likely destinations for Cole Hamels - if he's traded at all - are: Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, or Rangers.
*Jeff Luhnow used the A's as a cautionary tale to the New York Post's Joel Sherman:
We saw Oakland trade away pretty good players last year to win a division and they ended up getting eliminated in the wild-card game.
*Anthony Castrovince wants to see the Astros trade for David Price
Non-Astros link of the day
Rolling Stone: Meet the man who flies around the world for free
Monday, July 20, 2015
2015 Trade deadline roundtable
Despite the idea that I've withdrawn myself from the whole Astros blogging thing, from time to time I get questions from Astros fans who are either really into my opinion or don't know that I've "retired." I still watch as many Astros games as I possibly can and I do read a few articles here and there, so I still like to answer questions that are sent to me. Recently, Chad sent me the following questions:
"With the upcoming MLB trade deadline fast approaching us, is there any position or player you personally feel Astros management should target?"
What a great question. Instead of just responding to Chad I decided that I would go a little further and coerce the fine writers at Astros County to contribute their comments.
Personally, I think the Astros need to address the rotation depth. I'm comfortable with Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, and even Scott Feldman. I would love four Keuchels in the rotation, but that just isn't possible and would cost a pretty price in future talent. At the moment, the following names have been connected to the Astros:
Cashner and Ross have also run into a little bit of a luck issue with BABIPs above their career norms. I would expect them to improve upon their first halfs, which have been good but not great. Leake is also an intriguing name because his groundball rate is in the %50 range, which would fit right in with the shift happyness Astros.
All the pitchers above would provide an upgrade for the rotation. It's just a question of, "At what cost?" I'll take someone cheap like Leake or controllable like Cashner and Ross.
First base is an issue, but I have confidence Chris Carter will have a much better second half. I also think Jon Singleton could make an impact if necessary. I wouldn't be upset if the Astros acquired someone more reliable, but I'm comfortable with the talent they currently. Ditto to the outfield, which has been struck by injury. George Springer will be back in September and there are other options like L.J. Hoes, Domingo Santana, and Tony Kemp.
Bullpens can always use another arm, so look for that to be an area. Aroldis Chapman is the sexy name, but will come with a hefty price.
Here are the thoughts of other AC writers.
BatGuy
I'm going back and forth on my feelings for this. On one hand, we've heard for a few years now that there is a #plan and #process to get Houston to the point where they can sustain success for several seasons. This year's surprising results so far are evidence that the plan is coming together, so why deviate from that now? That line of thinking would lead me to say the Astros should stand pat or maybe make some small moves, like a second or even third tier starter simply because relying on McCullers and Velasquez will definitely lead to an innings crunch at the end of the season.
I'll just say I'm glad I'm not Jeff Luhnow right now.
Masked Marvel
"With the upcoming MLB trade deadline fast approaching us, is there any position or player you personally feel Astros management should target?"
What a great question. Instead of just responding to Chad I decided that I would go a little further and coerce the fine writers at Astros County to contribute their comments.
Personally, I think the Astros need to address the rotation depth. I'm comfortable with Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, and even Scott Feldman. I would love four Keuchels in the rotation, but that just isn't possible and would cost a pretty price in future talent. At the moment, the following names have been connected to the Astros:
- Johnny Cueto - Reds
- Mike Leake - Reds
- Scott Kazmir - A's
- Cole Hamels - Phillies
- Jeff Samardzija - White Sox
- Andrew Cashner - Padres
- Tyson Ross - Padres
Cashner and Ross have also run into a little bit of a luck issue with BABIPs above their career norms. I would expect them to improve upon their first halfs, which have been good but not great. Leake is also an intriguing name because his groundball rate is in the %50 range, which would fit right in with the shift happyness Astros.
All the pitchers above would provide an upgrade for the rotation. It's just a question of, "At what cost?" I'll take someone cheap like Leake or controllable like Cashner and Ross.
First base is an issue, but I have confidence Chris Carter will have a much better second half. I also think Jon Singleton could make an impact if necessary. I wouldn't be upset if the Astros acquired someone more reliable, but I'm comfortable with the talent they currently. Ditto to the outfield, which has been struck by injury. George Springer will be back in September and there are other options like L.J. Hoes, Domingo Santana, and Tony Kemp.
Bullpens can always use another arm, so look for that to be an area. Aroldis Chapman is the sexy name, but will come with a hefty price.
Here are the thoughts of other AC writers.
BatGuy
I'm going back and forth on my feelings for this. On one hand, we've heard for a few years now that there is a #plan and #process to get Houston to the point where they can sustain success for several seasons. This year's surprising results so far are evidence that the plan is coming together, so why deviate from that now? That line of thinking would lead me to say the Astros should stand pat or maybe make some small moves, like a second or even third tier starter simply because relying on McCullers and Velasquez will definitely lead to an innings crunch at the end of the season.
On the other hand,
success is never guaranteed. We hope this is just the start of a great
run but who,knows what injuries or developmental collapses are around
the corner. This would lead me to say we need to strike now while we can
and acquire a front line starter, another bullpen ace, and a solid
corner infield bat. The Astros certainly have the resources, both
financial and prospect-wise, to go for it, but does that slow or even
derail the long-term plan?
Masked Marvel
BatGuy talked about #plan and #process, and acknowledging what the
Astros have done so far seems like a great way to begin. Certainly, the
plan - when Luhnow et al took over - was to trade for whatever
they could get. Because of what they were trading away - guys like the
Wand-man and J.A. Happ - it was a quantity of B- and C-grade guys,
rather than a smaller number of high-ceiling prospects in return. The
high ceiling guys in the Astros system have been accumulated mostly via
the draft - think Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers.
So
the easy part of the plan was getting any talent they could. Now comes
the next stage - concentrating the talent they have into the available
positions on the diamond. The Astros only have one major-league team,
so they don’t have unlimited places to stash the talent that they have.
They could fill three outfields with Springer-Marisnick-Tucker in one,
then Santana-Rasmus-Hoes in another, then Grossman-Villar-Presley in a
third. All of those guys have played in the majors in the outfield this
year. And that is without mentioning the Astros’ best prospect - Brett
Phillips - and another couple of guys that could bust out in the
future.
I wrote after the Dexter Fowler
acquisition that I was happy to see two players go to Colorado in
exchange for one. The Astros did it again this year with the Gattis
trade, sending three players (but only one on the 40-man) to gain one in
return. This signalled a transition to the next logical stage of the
plan is to concentrate the available talent, because after all, the
Astros can only have nine players on the field at one time. This will
probably continue, and will be the plan for this summer and offseason.
So,
Astros fans, don’t get too attached to the guys close to or in the
major-leagues. Any of them - aside from perhaps a couple of players
like Correa and McCullers - could be playing for another club by the end
of the month. The next stage of the process is to acquire some elite
talent by trading a group of players, which would create space on the
40-man and would fill a hole for the Astros. I imagine they would be
particularly interested in a high-OBP/low-K corner infielder or
outfielder which they could control after this year; or a starting
pitcher, either as a pure rental or as someone controllable after this
season. The trades will probably hurt the farm, and we will get an idea
of what the Astros think of Mark Appel, Tony Kemp, Brett Phillips and
the abovementioned outfielders. Selling a bunch of prospects for an
elite player is probably the next part of the plan.
In
return, I would imagine that the Astros are taking a close look at the
Padres starters, and anyone the Reds have. They match up well with the
Mets, if a young starter was to be traded for, but I can’t imagine that
anyone is leaving the Mets anytime soon. I am guessing that the Astros’
approach is to trade anyone who they think can’t contribute at a high
level on the diamond in 2017.
The Constable
I can talk myself in and out of making an impact trade within about ten seconds of the initial thought. And I've said on Twitter that I am automatically going to hate any trade the Astros make for the first 24 hours, because I have Prospect Attachment Syndrome. This is a debilitating disease whereupon one cannot function as a fan because whichever prospect the Astros trades is automatically considered to be a perennial Cy Young or MVP winner. Why do I have this debilitating syndrome (I'm waiting on the creepy advertisements, with a creepy-yet-sort-of-hot cougar lounges on a chaise and seductively tells you to see a doctor)? Because the Prospects are where the hope was for the better part of five years. I've been an Astros fan for a long time, but five years of being told Prospects! Prospects! can take it's toll.
And we are living in an era in baseball where teams have Prospect Attachment Syndrome, as well. In the documents where the Cardinals broke federal law and then leaked the Astros files to the world, we found out that Luhnow tried to get Lucas Giolito for Lucas Harrell. Lucas Freaking Harrell. No, my friends, the price for any Impact piece - be it arm or bat - will be high.
Of course, the Astros have depth. When you preach Prospects! Prospects! for the better part of five years, you're going to have some to trade, and they can't all play on the field at the same time, so you either move the prospects, or you try to find a loophole that allows you to play 46 guys in one game.
I hated the Gattis trade immediately, but it's hard to argue that Rio Ruiz has a .618 OPS in Double-A and Mike Foltynewicz is a flyball pitcher with a high BABIP on a shuttle between Atlanta and Gwinnett (which is more of a long commute than a shuttle, but whatever). I still am not sure about the Gattis trade, but Mike Foltynewicz isn't Billy Wagner (yet) and Rio Ruiz isn't Chipper Jones (yet). I was sure about the latter two things immediately. Likewise Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez.
So I guess this is where we have to trust the #process that everyone preceding has discussed. We have to trust that whomever the Astros send away isn't going to fit into the overall picture. But I don't like doing that. I liked it better when the front office looked incompetent, it made for hotter takes.
The Constable
I can talk myself in and out of making an impact trade within about ten seconds of the initial thought. And I've said on Twitter that I am automatically going to hate any trade the Astros make for the first 24 hours, because I have Prospect Attachment Syndrome. This is a debilitating disease whereupon one cannot function as a fan because whichever prospect the Astros trades is automatically considered to be a perennial Cy Young or MVP winner. Why do I have this debilitating syndrome (I'm waiting on the creepy advertisements, with a creepy-yet-sort-of-hot cougar lounges on a chaise and seductively tells you to see a doctor)? Because the Prospects are where the hope was for the better part of five years. I've been an Astros fan for a long time, but five years of being told Prospects! Prospects! can take it's toll.
And we are living in an era in baseball where teams have Prospect Attachment Syndrome, as well. In the documents where the Cardinals broke federal law and then leaked the Astros files to the world, we found out that Luhnow tried to get Lucas Giolito for Lucas Harrell. Lucas Freaking Harrell. No, my friends, the price for any Impact piece - be it arm or bat - will be high.
Of course, the Astros have depth. When you preach Prospects! Prospects! for the better part of five years, you're going to have some to trade, and they can't all play on the field at the same time, so you either move the prospects, or you try to find a loophole that allows you to play 46 guys in one game.
I hated the Gattis trade immediately, but it's hard to argue that Rio Ruiz has a .618 OPS in Double-A and Mike Foltynewicz is a flyball pitcher with a high BABIP on a shuttle between Atlanta and Gwinnett (which is more of a long commute than a shuttle, but whatever). I still am not sure about the Gattis trade, but Mike Foltynewicz isn't Billy Wagner (yet) and Rio Ruiz isn't Chipper Jones (yet). I was sure about the latter two things immediately. Likewise Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez.
So I guess this is where we have to trust the #process that everyone preceding has discussed. We have to trust that whomever the Astros send away isn't going to fit into the overall picture. But I don't like doing that. I liked it better when the front office looked incompetent, it made for hotter takes.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Thursday Morning Hot Links
While the rest of baseball gets back to playing games today, the Astros have an extra day off to prepare of the Rangers coming to town for a three-game series starting tomorrow night. Let's get to the links:
*With just over two weeks until the Trade Deadline, Luhnow still considers starting pitching to be the priority, though the Astros are looking at improving everything:
We'll know more toward the end of July than we do right now whether or not our bats are able to come back. But we're continuing to look at everything: bullpen, starting rotation, offense.
*While the Astros are among the teams most interested in Johnny Cueto, Evan Drellich reports (previous link) that Luhnow and Reds GM Walt Jocketty's relationship could be a problem thanks to their previous time in St. Louis. An unnamed executive, on Jocketty:
He's going to have to have somebody come to him and blow him out of the water, and if he's got three deals and in his mind they're all comparable, I don't think the Astros win.
*And in what may be our first Shots Fired of the season, Luhnow spoke of Chris Carter:
You look at the production that Chris Carter gave us the second half of last year, and you don't want to miss that production. But it hasn't been there yet, quite frankly, and it's frustrating, because we know what he's capable of doing. I'm not sure we can wait all year for something to come if it's not coming. I believe he will get off to a quick start after the break and give us the production we need.
"I believe he will..." = "Chris Carter damn well better..."
*The signing deadline for 2015 draft picks is tomorrow, and 27th Round pick James Carter is the highest draft pick to not sign. The Astros aren't sure if 34th Round pick Conor Biggio will sign.
*While at the All-Star Game, Dallas Keuchel made a recruiting pitch to impending free agent David Price.
*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote about how the Astros can capitalize on their success.
*SI's Jay Jaffe, on the Cardinals' trade deadline options as they fight over the NL Central with the Pirates:
GM John Mozeliak has the depth to make moves, but one wonders whether the team's embroilment in the Astros database hacking scandal will make it harder for him to deal.
*Scott Boras is encouraged by Mark Appel's recent success.
*I was up quite late last night finishing a post on why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his HOF plaque.
*The Diamondbacks, who as a franchise are dumb, had the bright idea to name a highway after 2015 Hall of Fame inductee Randy Johnson. Problem is, the highway to be renamed was initially named after the first Native American woman to be killed in Iraq. So the Diamondbacks, and the state of Arizona, backed off.
*With just over two weeks until the Trade Deadline, Luhnow still considers starting pitching to be the priority, though the Astros are looking at improving everything:
We'll know more toward the end of July than we do right now whether or not our bats are able to come back. But we're continuing to look at everything: bullpen, starting rotation, offense.
*While the Astros are among the teams most interested in Johnny Cueto, Evan Drellich reports (previous link) that Luhnow and Reds GM Walt Jocketty's relationship could be a problem thanks to their previous time in St. Louis. An unnamed executive, on Jocketty:
He's going to have to have somebody come to him and blow him out of the water, and if he's got three deals and in his mind they're all comparable, I don't think the Astros win.
*And in what may be our first Shots Fired of the season, Luhnow spoke of Chris Carter:
You look at the production that Chris Carter gave us the second half of last year, and you don't want to miss that production. But it hasn't been there yet, quite frankly, and it's frustrating, because we know what he's capable of doing. I'm not sure we can wait all year for something to come if it's not coming. I believe he will get off to a quick start after the break and give us the production we need.
"I believe he will..." = "Chris Carter damn well better..."
*The signing deadline for 2015 draft picks is tomorrow, and 27th Round pick James Carter is the highest draft pick to not sign. The Astros aren't sure if 34th Round pick Conor Biggio will sign.
*While at the All-Star Game, Dallas Keuchel made a recruiting pitch to impending free agent David Price.
*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote about how the Astros can capitalize on their success.
*SI's Jay Jaffe, on the Cardinals' trade deadline options as they fight over the NL Central with the Pirates:
GM John Mozeliak has the depth to make moves, but one wonders whether the team's embroilment in the Astros database hacking scandal will make it harder for him to deal.
*Scott Boras is encouraged by Mark Appel's recent success.
*I was up quite late last night finishing a post on why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his HOF plaque.
*The Diamondbacks, who as a franchise are dumb, had the bright idea to name a highway after 2015 Hall of Fame inductee Randy Johnson. Problem is, the highway to be renamed was initially named after the first Native American woman to be killed in Iraq. So the Diamondbacks, and the state of Arizona, backed off.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Tuesday Morning Hot Links
Good morning, citizens of Astros County. My wife had somewhat of a medical emergency over the weekend, so blogging is going to be spotty for the next few days. Of course, it may be that thinking about the Astros is one of the few ways to keep my already-tenuous grip on sanity (how awful is that thought?). Please bear with...
*Having seen their Playoff Odds (via FanGraphs) drop from 80.5% to 56.2% in the last ten days and the team fall out of 1st place for the first time since April, the Astros "are expected" to target Johnny Cueto in a trade. Jon Heyman, quoting someone with INSIDE INFORMATION THAT NO ONE ELSE WOULD HAVE EVER THOUGHT OF, says the Astros "know they need another starter." OH YOU DON'T SAY.
*Within that Heyman piece, the Astros don't appear to be interested in Cole Hamels, presumably because he's a doucheface.
*Dallas Keuchel is the first Astros pitcher since Clemens in 2004 to start the All-Star Game, joining a club of J.R. Richard and Mike Scott. And he is excited.
*Throwback link to when Lloyd McClendon said that Dallas Keuchel was an average pitcher.
*Chronicle columnist Brian T. Smith writes that Houston could very well be a baseball town again.
*Phillies reliever and noted whiner Jonathan Papelbon desperately wants out of Philadelphia.
*Having seen their Playoff Odds (via FanGraphs) drop from 80.5% to 56.2% in the last ten days and the team fall out of 1st place for the first time since April, the Astros "are expected" to target Johnny Cueto in a trade. Jon Heyman, quoting someone with INSIDE INFORMATION THAT NO ONE ELSE WOULD HAVE EVER THOUGHT OF, says the Astros "know they need another starter." OH YOU DON'T SAY.
*Within that Heyman piece, the Astros don't appear to be interested in Cole Hamels, presumably because he's a doucheface.
*Dallas Keuchel is the first Astros pitcher since Clemens in 2004 to start the All-Star Game, joining a club of J.R. Richard and Mike Scott. And he is excited.
*Throwback link to when Lloyd McClendon said that Dallas Keuchel was an average pitcher.
*Chronicle columnist Brian T. Smith writes that Houston could very well be a baseball town again.
*Phillies reliever and noted whiner Jonathan Papelbon desperately wants out of Philadelphia.
Sunday, July 5, 2015
Sunday Morning Hot Links
At 48-35, the Astros are 4.0 up on the Angels with a 62.3% chance of winning the division and an 80.5% chance of going to the playoffs. Let's get to the Hot Links...
*Collin McHugh couldn't find his command against Boston.
*Jim Crane talked to Brian McTaggart about the need for a starting pitcher, having checked on Scott Kazmir, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Mike Leake (notably absent from this list is Colston Douche Hamels).
If we can get the right move, I'm sure Jeff (Luhnow) will pull the trigger. He has the ability to do that if he wants to do it. It will depend on what kind of contract it is and how long it is and who it is and what we need, but I know it's something a lot of teams are looking at right now...
...On the trade deadline, we're looking at a lot of different options. It's no secret we'd like to get a little deeper on the starting pitcher side. The bullpen is solid. We'll get our guys healthy and hopefully make a run.
*George Springer and the Astros elected not to have surgery on his wrist in hopes that it will make for a quicker recovery.
*Jeff Luhnow on the team's progress:
The most compelling thing about this team is the contributions have come from so many different components. The constants have been Keuchel and the bullpen for the most part. Others have ebbed and flowed as the season's gone on. But there's been enough players contributing at a high level...each month to keep us winning.
*Dan Straily will get at least one more start, and Jake Marisnick will return to the team today, with Domingo Santana heading back to Fresno.
*Nick Cafardo says Cole Hamels will likely not accept a trade to Houston or Toronto. "Yet if those are the only options he has," Cafardo writes, "would he say No?"
*Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan: The Astros won't fold like everyone expects them to do. Money line:
If Edward Snowden hacked into the Astros' database, even he would be stumped as to how this is all happening.
*The Masked Marvel wrote about the possible edge the Astros have in scheduling for the rest of the season.
*Draft longshot Luken Baker is still planning on going to TCU.
*Just about all of Locust Grove, Oklahoma went to OKC to watch Adrian Houser pitch.
*Here's a nice profile on former Astro and Mariners Rule 5 pick David Rollins, who made his Major-League debut yesterday.
*Collin McHugh couldn't find his command against Boston.
*Jim Crane talked to Brian McTaggart about the need for a starting pitcher, having checked on Scott Kazmir, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Mike Leake (notably absent from this list is Colston Douche Hamels).
If we can get the right move, I'm sure Jeff (Luhnow) will pull the trigger. He has the ability to do that if he wants to do it. It will depend on what kind of contract it is and how long it is and who it is and what we need, but I know it's something a lot of teams are looking at right now...
...On the trade deadline, we're looking at a lot of different options. It's no secret we'd like to get a little deeper on the starting pitcher side. The bullpen is solid. We'll get our guys healthy and hopefully make a run.
*George Springer and the Astros elected not to have surgery on his wrist in hopes that it will make for a quicker recovery.
*Jeff Luhnow on the team's progress:
The most compelling thing about this team is the contributions have come from so many different components. The constants have been Keuchel and the bullpen for the most part. Others have ebbed and flowed as the season's gone on. But there's been enough players contributing at a high level...each month to keep us winning.
*Dan Straily will get at least one more start, and Jake Marisnick will return to the team today, with Domingo Santana heading back to Fresno.
*Nick Cafardo says Cole Hamels will likely not accept a trade to Houston or Toronto. "Yet if those are the only options he has," Cafardo writes, "would he say No?"
*Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan: The Astros won't fold like everyone expects them to do. Money line:
If Edward Snowden hacked into the Astros' database, even he would be stumped as to how this is all happening.
*The Masked Marvel wrote about the possible edge the Astros have in scheduling for the rest of the season.
*Draft longshot Luken Baker is still planning on going to TCU.
*Just about all of Locust Grove, Oklahoma went to OKC to watch Adrian Houser pitch.
*Here's a nice profile on former Astro and Mariners Rule 5 pick David Rollins, who made his Major-League debut yesterday.
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
Picking your Poison: Three Starting Pitchers edition
It's July, which means it's officially Trade Month, and for the first time in a while we as fans are interested in the major league pieces that might actually be acquired this month, rather than which minor-league pieces might be coming in to help some distant Astros team that might contend.
Johnny Cueto
The 29-year old Cueto is the youngest of the three starting pitchers we'll examine today. Depending on when the Astros trade for him, they would owe
him in the $4-5m range for 2015, but he is a rental. Due to the rental status, the prospects required by the Reds wouldn't wouldn’t
be as high as, say, Cole Hamels (hold on for him).
Cueto led the National League in innings pitched (243.2),
strikeouts (242), and hits/9 (6.2) in 2014.
In 2015, Cueto has thrown 96.2IP, 72H/32ER, 92K:19BB,
cutting his walk rate by 0.6 BB/9 from 2014 to 2015. He’s a flyball pitcher,
getting only a 41.4% groundball rate – quite a departure from what the Astros
have seemingly valued in the past couple of seasons. That said, his 2.98 ERA
isn’t terribly out of line from his 3.37 FIP or 3.28 xFIP. His .238 BABIP is
spot-on with his 2014 (also .238) and 2013 (.236).
Jeff Samardzija
Like Cueto, the 30-year old Samardzija
would be a rental player, having signed a 1-year, $9.8m deal in the offseason, meaning the Astros would owe him somewhere in the $4m range if they acquire him at the deadline.
Samardzija has been somewhat disappointing this season, his
4.56 ERA the highest of his career in any season in which he threw over 35IP.
His 123 hits allowed lead the league, but he’s the victim of some bad luck, as
the ERA belies his 3.65 FIP and 3.83 xFIP, and because the White Sox are a poor
defensive team, posting a -37.6 rating on FanGraphs (the Astros are rated at
-8.8, but I still am not sure how FanGraphs’ accounts for extreme shifting).
Samardzija is also getting fewer groundballs than in recent
years. His groundball rate is 39.6%, down from the 50.2% he got with the Cubs
and A’s in 2014, and the 48.2% he posted in 2013.
Cole Hamels
Considered the jewel of possible trade bait, whichever team
trades for Hamels is definitely not getting a rental: he is owed what is left
of his $22.5m salary in 2015, and then $22.5m in each of the 2016-18 seasons,
with a $19m vesting option ($6m buyout) for 2019. Or if Hamels meets 400IP in
2017-18 combined, 200IP in 2018, and is not on the DL at the end of 2018 with a
shoulder or elbow injury, a $24m option automatically vests for 2019. He’s
expensive, in terms of cash money and prospects.
The Phillies are in 2015 where the Astros were in 2009.
Their roster is old and hurt and expensive, and their minor-league system isn’t in the
best shape of its life. This can be attributed to trades and extensions made in order to stay in
contention over the previous ten years. Sound familiar?
Hamels is 31 years old, so he’s under contract through
his Age 34 season. But he also just may fit the Astros’ preferred profile the
best of the three listed possibilities. He has a 48.6% groundball rate, and his
3.22 ERA is in line with his 3.43 FIP and 3.21 xFIP. Hamels has been a 4-5 WAR
player since 2011, and is already at 2.0 WAR this season. And he’s another lefty for a rotation that only features Ace Keuchel
But going back to the Phillies and possible trade demands,
Hamels is perhaps Ruben Amaro’s only shot to restock the farm system with one
trade. You thought the Astros’ haul for Hunter Pence was nice? That’s not going
to get it done for Hamels, unless Jeff Luhnow turns out to be some sort of
Actual Sorcerer, and Ruben Amaro is actually as dumb as we’re all led to believe.
Do you like Lance McCullers? Vince Velasquez? At least one, if not both, are gone.
The conversation likely starts there. Correa isn’t going anywhere, but he’s
likely the only untouchable on the list. Appel, Brett Phillips, Tony Kemp, Preston Tucker Colin Moran
would also be on the list. The Phillies are going to want to get better quickly
by dealing the ace of their rotation. They’re not going to respond positively
to your dumb fantasy trades where you offer Jed Lowrie, Chris Carter and six scrubs for
Mike Trout. They don't need Chris Carter, because they have a more expensive version in Ryan Howard.
Of course, these are just three starting pitchers to which
the Astros have been linked. You can bet that the Astros have inquired on
pitchers that haven’t been mentioned and, honestly, any of these would serve as
a necessary upgrade to a potential playoff rotation. Pick your poison. Who do
you want and, more importantly, how much are you willing to give up?
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Know Your Enemy: April 28
The Astros will attempt their first three-game winning streak since April 7-9 as they face the Reds and...
*5'10" 215lb RHP Johnny Cueto.
*This will be Cueto's 5th start of the season, and his 4th start against NL Central teams. In 25.1IP, he has allowed 22H/5ER, 19K:6BB.
*Against RHBs in 2012, Cueto is allowing a .429 OPS; Against LHBs, Cueto's OPS-against is .899.
*With nobody out, Cueto has allowed a .138/.194/.138 line.
*Against Houston, however, Cueto's had a rough-ish go of it. In 10 starts, he's 1-5 with a 4.01 ERA/1.42 WHIP - his worst record against any team with 9+ starts.
*With Carlos Lee out of the lineup, Chris Johnson has the most appearances against Cueto, and is 3x8; Jason Castro is 0x8; Brian Bixler is 0x4.
*Lucas Harrell comes in to this game with a 3.97 ERA/1.28 WHIP, but there hasn't been any consistency to his numbers (other than "every other start is pretty good").
*In his last time out, at Milwaukee, he allowed 5H/5ER, 1K:3BB; and has allowed 19H/10ER, 11K:10BB in 22.2IP.
*Harrell has walked the leadoff batter of the inning four times in 23 innings, and walked three batters with two outs.
*Harrell's OPS, by out: 0 outs - .512; 1 out - .637; 2 outs - .959.
*Current, non-pitcher Reds, have faced Harrell just three times.
*5'10" 215lb RHP Johnny Cueto.
*This will be Cueto's 5th start of the season, and his 4th start against NL Central teams. In 25.1IP, he has allowed 22H/5ER, 19K:6BB.
*Against RHBs in 2012, Cueto is allowing a .429 OPS; Against LHBs, Cueto's OPS-against is .899.
*With nobody out, Cueto has allowed a .138/.194/.138 line.
*Against Houston, however, Cueto's had a rough-ish go of it. In 10 starts, he's 1-5 with a 4.01 ERA/1.42 WHIP - his worst record against any team with 9+ starts.
*With Carlos Lee out of the lineup, Chris Johnson has the most appearances against Cueto, and is 3x8; Jason Castro is 0x8; Brian Bixler is 0x4.
*Lucas Harrell comes in to this game with a 3.97 ERA/1.28 WHIP, but there hasn't been any consistency to his numbers (other than "every other start is pretty good").
*In his last time out, at Milwaukee, he allowed 5H/5ER, 1K:3BB; and has allowed 19H/10ER, 11K:10BB in 22.2IP.
*Harrell has walked the leadoff batter of the inning four times in 23 innings, and walked three batters with two outs.
*Harrell's OPS, by out: 0 outs - .512; 1 out - .637; 2 outs - .959.
*Current, non-pitcher Reds, have faced Harrell just three times.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Astros record for starting pitchers
So the Astros' SPs have had a lot of no decisions - 31, to be exact. Where are the wins - and losses - coming from, and how does the team fare per starter? Let's take us a gander:
You may notice that the current SPs' NDs don't add up to 31, but keep in mind Backe (1 ND) and Paulino (3 NDs) have also started games this season. But Roy's 11 no decisions are brutal. So that got me wondering about other team's aces getting NDs. Let's look:
A couple of things stand out about this. I was surprised to see Roy get that kind of run support and still have 11 no decisions. I also found it surprising that Duke and Wainwright had the same or more run support per start. What do you take from this, class?
| HOU SP | #Starts | Record | #NDs | Team Rec in GS | Run Supp |
| Roy | 21 | 6-4 | 11 | 11-10 | 4.75 |
| Wandy | 20 | 10-6 | 4 | 14-6 | 4.56 |
| Hampton | 17 | 6-7 | 4 | 6-11 | 4.03 |
| Moehler | 17 | 7-6 | 4 | 10-7 | 4.68 |
| Ortiz | 12 | 3-5 | 4 | 5-7 | 3.86 |
You may notice that the current SPs' NDs don't add up to 31, but keep in mind Backe (1 ND) and Paulino (3 NDs) have also started games this season. But Roy's 11 no decisions are brutal. So that got me wondering about other team's aces getting NDs. Let's look:
| Team/SP | #Starts | Record | #NDs | Team Rec in GS | Run Support |
| CHC/Zambrano | 18 | 7-4 | 4 | 12-6 | 4.38 |
| StL/Wainwright | 21 | 11-7 | 3 | 14-7 | 5.79 |
| MIL/Gallardo | 20 | 9-7 | 4 | 11-9 | 4.00 |
| CIN/Cueto | 20 | 8-7 | 5 | 11-9 | 3.84 |
| PIT/Duke | 20 | 9-9 | 2 | 9-11 | 4.75 |
A couple of things stand out about this. I was surprised to see Roy get that kind of run support and still have 11 no decisions. I also found it surprising that Duke and Wainwright had the same or more run support per start. What do you take from this, class?
Monday, April 27, 2009
Recap for G20 - Astros @ Reds
Poor Roy. A quality start, ERA under 4.00 - life is good. The Astros finally got the big inning late. The Astros, before tonight had only scored five runs in the 9th inning all season long. So getting three runs in the 9th inning tonight sure was nice. Of course that means Roy gets another ND despite putting the whoop on the Reds...yet again.
Oswalt: 7IP, 6H, 1ER, 2K:2BB
Byrdak: .2IP, 1H
Sampson: 1.1IP, 1H, 1K
Oswalt's...
FPB: 20
FPS: 7
My favorite Astros pitching stat of the night was the three inning-ending double plays Oswalt rolled up on Cueto, Phillips and pinch-hitter Darnell McDonald in the 7th to end the inning still tied at 1-1.
So Berkman raised his average with a 6th inning bomb to left field. Bourn extended his hitting streak to nine games. Tejada apparently just couldn't handle the Brewers' pitching staff and went off for a 3x4 night. Then, then, then! in the 9th inning. Lee leads off with a single to right, Tejada did what he does and pulled the ball for a single to left. Jason Smith got on base - after running for Lee - and Hunter Pence came through with The Big Hit and a two-RBI double to deep right. Blum's sac fly got Pence in, and there's your four runs.
Man of the Match:
Hunter Pence. I wanted to give it to Roy, and Lance, but Pence came through with a big hit at a big time.
Goat of the Game:
It's kind of nice to not be able to find a Goat. We'll give it to Pudge, as he was the only Astro to not get on base.
Oswalt: 7IP, 6H, 1ER, 2K:2BB
Byrdak: .2IP, 1H
Sampson: 1.1IP, 1H, 1K
| Pitcher | Pit/Str | Strike% | BF/Outs | Efficiency% | GB/FB/K |
| Oswalt | 98/63 | 64.3% | 29/21 | x% | 14/5/2 |
| Byrdak | 9/5 | 55.6% | 3/2 | 66.7% | 1/1/0 |
| Sampson | 20/14 | 70% | 5/4 | 80% | 2/1/1 |
Oswalt's...
FPB: 20
FPS: 7
My favorite Astros pitching stat of the night was the three inning-ending double plays Oswalt rolled up on Cueto, Phillips and pinch-hitter Darnell McDonald in the 7th to end the inning still tied at 1-1.
So Berkman raised his average with a 6th inning bomb to left field. Bourn extended his hitting streak to nine games. Tejada apparently just couldn't handle the Brewers' pitching staff and went off for a 3x4 night. Then, then, then! in the 9th inning. Lee leads off with a single to right, Tejada did what he does and pulled the ball for a single to left. Jason Smith got on base - after running for Lee - and Hunter Pence came through with The Big Hit and a two-RBI double to deep right. Blum's sac fly got Pence in, and there's your four runs.
Man of the Match:
Hunter Pence. I wanted to give it to Roy, and Lance, but Pence came through with a big hit at a big time.
Goat of the Game:
It's kind of nice to not be able to find a Goat. We'll give it to Pudge, as he was the only Astro to not get on base.
Matchup for G20 - Astros at Reds
So the Astros head out for a three-game set at Cincinnati, get their first day off in 15 days, and then head to Atlanta for three games against the Braves. I'll be at the game on Saturday, so any Astros County Citizens who want to meet up - give me a shout. Stay tuned for your Live Blog info for this week, as well.
But today the Astros send Roy Oswalt to the mound against a welcome sight - the Cincinnati Reds. Remember them? They took three of four from the Astros last weekend, and very easily could have taken zero of four, had it not been for a shaky bullpen.
Roy Oswalt
I know we're only four starts into the season, but Roy's 4.68 ERA is +1.53 over his career average, and is 1.44 WHIP is +.24 over his career average, as well. Shall we be worried? Not yet, but it's still worth pointing out.
Last two starts:
Of course Roy gave up those three homers in an inning against the Dodgers, but that's just not what he does against the Reds. Versus those Reds...
First-pitch strikes: 17
First-pitch balls: 9
Roy only got behind 2-0 twice all night, and his longest AB was an eight-pitch AB against Edwin Encarnacion. Roy lowered his ERA by almost 1.6 runs from the Cardinals game to the Reds - let's see what will happen tonight.
Johnny Cueto
Of course the reason the Astros lost the April 17 game to the Reds was this man: Johnny Cueto. Cueto used the Astros game as a springboard to go into Wrigley Field five days ago to shut down the Cubs with 7IP, 4H/0ER where he got 15 strikes looking. Cueto only threw 4.2 against the Astros, but he did walk six - only giving up two hits and one earned run - walking Berkman with the bases loaded to score Roy.
Lefties are hitting .219/.286/.281; Righties - .212/.316/.394.
First-pitch strikes: 37
First-pitch balls: 30
Versus the Astros:
FPS: 14
FPB: 7
These Reds come in dumping along, too. After taking 3 of 4 from the Astros, the Reds took 2 of 3 from the Cubs and then the Braves won a series 2-1 in Cincinnati. Micah Owings did some pitching yesterday in an 8-2 win.
But today the Astros send Roy Oswalt to the mound against a welcome sight - the Cincinnati Reds. Remember them? They took three of four from the Astros last weekend, and very easily could have taken zero of four, had it not been for a shaky bullpen.
Roy Oswalt
I know we're only four starts into the season, but Roy's 4.68 ERA is +1.53 over his career average, and is 1.44 WHIP is +.24 over his career average, as well. Shall we be worried? Not yet, but it's still worth pointing out.
Last two starts:
| vCIN | 6IP | 5H/0ER | 4K:3BB | 6GB/11FB |
| vLAD | 6IP | 8H/4ER | 6K:1BB | 10GB/10FB |
Of course Roy gave up those three homers in an inning against the Dodgers, but that's just not what he does against the Reds. Versus those Reds...
First-pitch strikes: 17
First-pitch balls: 9
Roy only got behind 2-0 twice all night, and his longest AB was an eight-pitch AB against Edwin Encarnacion. Roy lowered his ERA by almost 1.6 runs from the Cardinals game to the Reds - let's see what will happen tonight.
Johnny Cueto
Of course the reason the Astros lost the April 17 game to the Reds was this man: Johnny Cueto. Cueto used the Astros game as a springboard to go into Wrigley Field five days ago to shut down the Cubs with 7IP, 4H/0ER where he got 15 strikes looking. Cueto only threw 4.2 against the Astros, but he did walk six - only giving up two hits and one earned run - walking Berkman with the bases loaded to score Roy.
Lefties are hitting .219/.286/.281; Righties - .212/.316/.394.
First-pitch strikes: 37
First-pitch balls: 30
Versus the Astros:
FPS: 14
FPB: 7
These Reds come in dumping along, too. After taking 3 of 4 from the Astros, the Reds took 2 of 3 from the Cubs and then the Braves won a series 2-1 in Cincinnati. Micah Owings did some pitching yesterday in an 8-2 win.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Recap of G10 - Astros v. Reds
Well that sucked. Any offense we thought might have been rolling with the Astros over the last two days was totally wasted, as Johnny Cueto - all 10.39 ERA of him (at Minute Maid) - rolled over the Astros, and then the Reds' bullpen followed suit. Despite walking seven batters, the Astros couldn't do anything but walk a run in. Tejada got 2 hits, while Blum and Pudge collected the other two hits. Eleven baserunners - 1 run.
As predicted, Oswalt dominated the Reds, and Valverde blew a 1-0 lead in the ninth by giving up a 2-run jack to Ramon Hernandez, who is now hitting .192 - after his 1x3 day.
Oswalt: 6IP, 5H, 0ER, 4K:3BB
Geary: 1IP
LaHawk: 1IP, 1H
Valderde: 1IP, 1H, 2ER, 1K:1BB - 1L
These things are going to happen. Hard-throwing closers are going to get hit hard every now and then. It just sucks that Roy is still winless after doing what he always does: Dominating the Reds.
Let's look at the 9th inning: Due up with a 1-0 lead is Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ramon Hernandez.
Valverde gets Bruce to strike out swinging - on the 6th pitch
Encarnacion walks on four straight pitches
Hernandez, on a 1-2 pitch, takes Valverde to right deep on the 2nd pitch of the AB. It takes Valverde 11 more pitches to get out of the inning.
I'm concerned about how many pitches Valverde is throwing. And we'll look at that, at some point. I've got to create suspense.
Berkman saw 21 pitches in an 0x1, 3BB, 1RBI performance. Berkman walked, scoring Roy, creating all the offense for the Astros. Carlos Lee went 0x4 (that means Berkman is hitting .212, Lee? .189) with 6LOBs. Where did these six men come from?
1st inning: Struck out with Berkman on 1st (1)
4th inning: Lines into a double play with Bourn on 2nd (2), Berkman on 1st (3)
5th inning: Grounds out to short with the bases loaded (4, 5, 6)
That's four RISP that don't score with Lee at the plate, which is also not good if you're the cleanup hitter. Cleanup men are not to leave things dirty.
Man of the Match:
I'm going back-and-forth on this between Berkman who, in the absence of hits, is at least getting on base; or Roy-O for throwing six dominant innings. Let's give it to Roy.
Goat of the Game:
Toss-up between Lee and Valverde. Since this was a pitcher's duel, we'll give it to Valverde, for blowing Roy's win.
As predicted, Oswalt dominated the Reds, and Valverde blew a 1-0 lead in the ninth by giving up a 2-run jack to Ramon Hernandez, who is now hitting .192 - after his 1x3 day.
Oswalt: 6IP, 5H, 0ER, 4K:3BB
Geary: 1IP
LaHawk: 1IP, 1H
Valderde: 1IP, 1H, 2ER, 1K:1BB - 1L
These things are going to happen. Hard-throwing closers are going to get hit hard every now and then. It just sucks that Roy is still winless after doing what he always does: Dominating the Reds.
| Pitcher | Pit/Str | Strike% | BF/Outs | Efficiency% | GB/FB/K |
| Oswalt | 108/75 | 69.4% | 24/18 | 66.7% | 5/7/4 |
| Geary | 7/6 | 85.7% | 3/3 | 100% | 1/2/0 |
| LaHawk: | 13/10 | 76.9% | 4/3 | 75% | 3/0/0 |
| Valverde: | 24/14 | 58.3% | 5/3 | 60% | 1/1/1 |
Let's look at the 9th inning: Due up with a 1-0 lead is Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ramon Hernandez.
Valverde gets Bruce to strike out swinging - on the 6th pitch
Encarnacion walks on four straight pitches
Hernandez, on a 1-2 pitch, takes Valverde to right deep on the 2nd pitch of the AB. It takes Valverde 11 more pitches to get out of the inning.
I'm concerned about how many pitches Valverde is throwing. And we'll look at that, at some point. I've got to create suspense.
Berkman saw 21 pitches in an 0x1, 3BB, 1RBI performance. Berkman walked, scoring Roy, creating all the offense for the Astros. Carlos Lee went 0x4 (that means Berkman is hitting .212, Lee? .189) with 6LOBs. Where did these six men come from?
1st inning: Struck out with Berkman on 1st (1)
4th inning: Lines into a double play with Bourn on 2nd (2), Berkman on 1st (3)
5th inning: Grounds out to short with the bases loaded (4, 5, 6)
That's four RISP that don't score with Lee at the plate, which is also not good if you're the cleanup hitter. Cleanup men are not to leave things dirty.
Man of the Match:
I'm going back-and-forth on this between Berkman who, in the absence of hits, is at least getting on base; or Roy-O for throwing six dominant innings. Let's give it to Roy.
Goat of the Game:
Toss-up between Lee and Valverde. Since this was a pitcher's duel, we'll give it to Valverde, for blowing Roy's win.
Matchup for G10 - Reds @ Astros
The Cincinnati Reds, Roy O's slumpbuster. It's really amazing how dominant Roy has been in his career against the Reds...almost improbable. Here we're talking about a guy who, since arriving for the Astros full-time, has won more games than any other pitcher (129). And against the Reds? 23-1, with a 2.47 ERA / 1.08 WHIP. Just what Roy needs after a rough beginning to his season. It's also worth pointing out that Roy didn't get his crap together until after his 3rd start of the 2008 season.
Roy's last start: Sunday at St. Louis
Oswalt: 6IP: 9H/6ER, 4K/2BB - 1 Grand Slam
Roy's 2008:
Johnny Cueto
Last start (Sunday loss vs Pittsburgh):
6IP, 8H, 4ER, 9K:1BB;
2008 splits:
Roy's last start: Sunday at St. Louis
Oswalt: 6IP: 9H/6ER, 4K/2BB - 1 Grand Slam
Roy's 2008:
| vs. CIN | 4-0 | 2.51 ERA/1.24 WHIP | 2 HR | 17K:8BB |
| July 28 H | W | 5IP | 7H/4ER | 5K:1BB |
| Aug 7 H | W | 7IP | 9H/1ER | 6K:2BB |
| Aug 27 A | W | 7IP | 5H/1ER | 3K:2BB |
| Sept 25 H | W | 6IP | 2H/1ER | 3K:3BB |
| Oswalt vs. | HxAB | BA/OBP/SLG | HR-RBI | K:BB |
| Taveras | 4x10 | .400/.455/.700 | 1-1 | 2:1 |
| Gonzalez | 6x16 | .375/.375/.750 | 2-3 | 2:0 |
| Phillips | 8x24 | .333/.360/.500 | 0-0 | 1:1 |
| Bruce | 4x13 | .308/.308/.385 | 0-0 | 1:0 |
| Hairston | 2x7 | .286/.286/.429 | 0-0 | 0:0 |
| Votto | 3x11 | .273/.333/.273 | 0-2 | 2:1 |
| Encarnacion | 2x18 | .111/.158/.167 | 0-0 | 8:1 |
Johnny Cueto
Last start (Sunday loss vs Pittsburgh):
6IP, 8H, 4ER, 9K:1BB;
2008 splits:
| vs. HOU | 0-3 | 7.84 ERA/1.94 WHIP | 4 HR | 15K:8BB |
| Away | 3-10 | 4.92 ERA/1.54 WHIP | 11 HR | 75K:35BB |
| at MMP | 0-2 | 10.39 ERA/2.19 WHIP | 1 HR | 4K:4BB |
| Apr 24 H | L | 7IP | 8H/8ER | 2K:2BB |
| July 28 A | L | 6IP | 8H/5ER | 3K:1BB |
| Aug 8 H | ND | 5IP | 9H/3ER | 9K:2BB |
| Sept 25 A | L | 2.2IP | 7H/5ER | 1K:3BB |
| Cueto vs. | HxAB | BA/OBP/SLG | HR-RBI | K:BB |
| Lee | 3x5 | .600/.667/1.200 | 1-2 | 0:1 |
| Bourn | 3x5 | .600/.600/.800 | 0-4 | 0:0 |
| Berkman | 4x8 | .500/.636/1.125 | 1-3 | 3:3 |
| Blum | 2x6 | .333/.375/.833 | 1-3 | 1:0 |
| Pence | 3x12 | .250/.250/.333 | 0-0 | 4:0 |
| Tejada | 2x11 | .182/.250/.182 | 0-1 | 2:1 |
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