The Angels scored four runs in the top of the 9th to beat the Royals, the Rangers won, Oakland lost, and the Mariners were off. So the Astros have a 1.5-game division lead, with FanGraphs giving them a 61.9% chance of winning the division, an 81.5% chance of making the postseason.
*George Springer's six-week checkup is scheduled for today, and Luhnow says his activation is the most important move they could make. Also, the Astros don't expect to call up more than eight players come September 1.
*Dallas Keuchel gets the start tonight, and doesn't like the extra rest.
*Here's a cool article on Bobby Dynamite - as we know him on Twitter - the Astros Train Guy.
*Jerome Solomon goes full homer on the Astros, and I love it.
*Be sure you read The Batguy's post on Chris Carter
Non-Astros Read of the Day
*Elva Zona Heaster: The Ghost Who Helped Solve Her Own Murder
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Friday, August 14, 2015
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Oh no, not more words about Chris Carter
Ah, Chris Carter. One of the most polarizing Astros players. Some fans have wanted to team to eat all $4M of his 2015 contract from the day he signed it. Others wanted a statue built tolerated his presence because they believed he wasn't completely useless. I was in the second group to start the season. Fans that can look beyond batting average could point to his wRC+ and understood that, even with his glaring flaws, he was still an above average major league hitter. Every one agreed he could be extremely streaky, but not everyone agreed that the good balanced out the bad.
But that was before the 2015 season. We're now 2/3 of the way through the season, and good CC still hasn't shown up. And I don't think he will. Not this year. Maybe not ever again.
So I wondered what had changed so much. What took him from a flawed but generally productive hitter to a flawed and generally unproductive hitter? Surprisingly, it seems that by trying to fix Carter, he ended up even more broken.
You see, Carter has always been a pull-happy fastball hitter with very impressive power who was prone to swing and miss and had particular trouble with breaking balls. His first two seasons with Houston he pulled the ball about 50% of the time, 30% up the middle, and 20% oppo. His strikeout rates were 36% and 32%. According to PITCHf/x values he averaged about 6 runs above average on fastballs, but 5 runs below average on sliders.
Conventional wisdom said that Carter needed to learn to hit more up the middle and opposite field, work into more fastball counts, and lay off pitches he knows he can't hit. And he's done exactly that! He's been spraying the ball to all fields. He's pulling the ball just 38% of the time in 2015, 36% up the middle, and 26% to right. He's seen his percentage of fastballs go up almost 4%, while his slider and curveball percentages are both down 2% to 2.5%. And he's drastically cut down on his swings on pitches outside the zone, cutting it from 29% last season to 24% this season.
But now he's below average against the fastball, while surprisingly a bit above average on sliders. His percentage of soft contact is down slightly, but his hard contact rate is down considerably. He's hitting fewer infield popups, but his HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career.
All of this suggests to me that in an effort to make Chris Carter a more well rounded hitter, the one thing he was really good at has disappeared. Carter's entire value was tied to his ability to knock the snot out of the ball better than nearly every other player in baseball, overlooked though that value may be. Without that, there's no reason for him to have a place on the roster.
But that was before the 2015 season. We're now 2/3 of the way through the season, and good CC still hasn't shown up. And I don't think he will. Not this year. Maybe not ever again.
So I wondered what had changed so much. What took him from a flawed but generally productive hitter to a flawed and generally unproductive hitter? Surprisingly, it seems that by trying to fix Carter, he ended up even more broken.
You see, Carter has always been a pull-happy fastball hitter with very impressive power who was prone to swing and miss and had particular trouble with breaking balls. His first two seasons with Houston he pulled the ball about 50% of the time, 30% up the middle, and 20% oppo. His strikeout rates were 36% and 32%. According to PITCHf/x values he averaged about 6 runs above average on fastballs, but 5 runs below average on sliders.
Conventional wisdom said that Carter needed to learn to hit more up the middle and opposite field, work into more fastball counts, and lay off pitches he knows he can't hit. And he's done exactly that! He's been spraying the ball to all fields. He's pulling the ball just 38% of the time in 2015, 36% up the middle, and 26% to right. He's seen his percentage of fastballs go up almost 4%, while his slider and curveball percentages are both down 2% to 2.5%. And he's drastically cut down on his swings on pitches outside the zone, cutting it from 29% last season to 24% this season.
But now he's below average against the fastball, while surprisingly a bit above average on sliders. His percentage of soft contact is down slightly, but his hard contact rate is down considerably. He's hitting fewer infield popups, but his HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career.
All of this suggests to me that in an effort to make Chris Carter a more well rounded hitter, the one thing he was really good at has disappeared. Carter's entire value was tied to his ability to knock the snot out of the ball better than nearly every other player in baseball, overlooked though that value may be. Without that, there's no reason for him to have a place on the roster.
Thursday Morning Hot Links
The Astros are tied for the League-lead in road wins (1) since the beginning of play on August 11. The White Sox beat the Angels in 13 innings, and David Robertson called Mike Scioscia "bush-league." You already likely know that Seattle pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma no-hit the Orioles (my friend was there, man), and the A's and Rangers both lost. The Astros are currently two games up on the Angels, 5.5 up on the Rangers. There are 47 games left in the season.
*Carlos Gomez wasn't in the lineup yesterday thanks to that pretty amazing play in center field against Matt Duffy on Tuesday night, but with the off-day today, he's looking to be in the lineup tomorrow.
*Jose Altuve TOOTBLANs more when the offense is struggling.
*Brad Peacock had to have back surgery to remove bone spurs as a result of a pinched nerve. He'll return in 2016.
*The Astros had a team meeting in Oakland.
*Nice one, Preston Tucker.
*Kirk Bohls on Carlos Correa.
*Oh good. Miguel Cabrera will be back for the Tigers tomorrow against the Astros.
*Director of Player Development Quinton McCracken spent six days in Quad Cities. Also, there was a drone delay in the Peoria/Lake County game.
*Watch Andrew Aplin make a boss catch for Fresno
*Carlos Gomez wasn't in the lineup yesterday thanks to that pretty amazing play in center field against Matt Duffy on Tuesday night, but with the off-day today, he's looking to be in the lineup tomorrow.
*Jose Altuve TOOTBLANs more when the offense is struggling.
*Brad Peacock had to have back surgery to remove bone spurs as a result of a pinched nerve. He'll return in 2016.
*The Astros had a team meeting in Oakland.
*Nice one, Preston Tucker.
*Kirk Bohls on Carlos Correa.
*Oh good. Miguel Cabrera will be back for the Tigers tomorrow against the Astros.
*Director of Player Development Quinton McCracken spent six days in Quad Cities. Also, there was a drone delay in the Peoria/Lake County game.
*Watch Andrew Aplin make a boss catch for Fresno
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
The Unbearable Lightness of Being an Astros Fan
After 113 games of the 2015 season the Astros are 61-52 and have a 1-game lead in the division. In years past, the Astros' division standing looked something like this after 113 games:
2014: 22.5 games back
2013: 27 games back
2012: 30.5 games back
2011: 26.5 games back
2010: 16 games back
So you'd think I'd feel good about this. The last time the Astros led the division after 113 games was 2003, when they were also 61-52, and had a 2.5-game lead on the NL Central. At this point in the season in the past five years we've already been talking about next June's draft, college football, or English soccer. Honestly, we had been doing everything we can to not really think about the Astros.
But I don't feel good about this. The offense is scuffling. The bullpen is shaky. It just feels like the Astros are squandering opportunities to put this division - which, as a whole, is struggling.
Let's think back just a few weeks ago. The Astros had a six-game losing streak heading into the All-Star Break, we speculated that maybe the Astros were tired, having played 40 games in the previous 42 days, and just needed a few days off. That may have been part of it, because the Astros came out of the break guns hot, winning six of their first seven games and sweeping the Angels, ushering the Astros back into 1st place, where they have spent a total of 103 days this season.
Still, this - right now - doesn't feel like a 1st place team (and I know, feelings don't have much of a place in baseball analysis). They have been up four games five separate times this season, and have seen that lead slip away. Perhaps this fact makes you feel better about how resilient the team is, and that would be a valid emotion.
After having won five of six heading into a nine-game road trip at Arlington, Oakland, and San Francisco, I felt good. The Rangers, even after having drugged Cole Hamels into agreeing to a trade, BABIP'd Lance McCullers back to the minors - after the only bad start of his Major-League career - but the Astros came back in that game. In the past I would have turned the game off - my mantra was "Nobody should feel like a martyr watching their favorite team." Or I would have had to turn the game off, having destroyed the remote.
That game was followed up by a couple of 4-3 losses where the Astros played a game of seeing how many men they could leave on base. Then Luke Gregerson blew a game against Oakland to have Jed Lowrie win it in the 10th, and then the Astros got dominated a couple of times before Gregerson blew another game.
The Astros haven't outright won a road series since April 27-29, when they swept the Padres to improve to 14-17. Since that series, the Astros are 13-32 on the road, 8-26 in road games since June, and 4-16 in their last 20 road games. Thirteen of their road losses since the Padres series have been by one run.
I honestly have no idea what to make of this. But I do know that the playoffs are not guaranteed. I refuse to write off 2015 because it was unexpected. The idea that the Astros *could* (or, could not) miss the postseason because they can't win close games on the road infuriates me, and I refuse to be comforted because of a Sports Illustrated cover.
We - as a fanbase - have watched a lot of miserable baseball, from the Buttslide to the Blocked Bunt, games in which the Astros seemingly tried to find new ways to lose and embarrass themselves. While we haven't watched a Buttslide moment this season - if we have, I've blocked it out - being close and losing is somehow worse to me than getting embarrassed.
This is clearly a talented team. Carlos Correa is a legit superstar, to go along with Altuve, Springer, Keuchel. How the Astros still have a 1-game lead with the Astros running out Chris Carter and Luis Valbuena every game shows that nothing in the world makes sense and maybe it's an indicator of better times ahead.
If the Astros make it to the postseason I'll be surprised. Maybe that's the fatalism of the last four years. If they don't, I'll be more mad than I was about 111 losses. What's the point of this? In Milan Kundera's "The Unbearable Lightness of Being" Tomas and Tereza live in Prague at the beginning of the Soviet occupation of the 1960s. Tomas is a womanizer, living freely within his marriage; Tereza is jailed by the heaviness of her love for Tomas and is destroyed by his "lightness of being." The story goes on - obviously, because it's one of the greatest novels of all time - but in this stretched analogy, we are the Tereza, tortured by the Astros' flirting with disaster - hopeful that they will change - and their current unbearable lightness of being.
2014: 22.5 games back
2013: 27 games back
2012: 30.5 games back
2011: 26.5 games back
2010: 16 games back
So you'd think I'd feel good about this. The last time the Astros led the division after 113 games was 2003, when they were also 61-52, and had a 2.5-game lead on the NL Central. At this point in the season in the past five years we've already been talking about next June's draft, college football, or English soccer. Honestly, we had been doing everything we can to not really think about the Astros.
But I don't feel good about this. The offense is scuffling. The bullpen is shaky. It just feels like the Astros are squandering opportunities to put this division - which, as a whole, is struggling.
Let's think back just a few weeks ago. The Astros had a six-game losing streak heading into the All-Star Break, we speculated that maybe the Astros were tired, having played 40 games in the previous 42 days, and just needed a few days off. That may have been part of it, because the Astros came out of the break guns hot, winning six of their first seven games and sweeping the Angels, ushering the Astros back into 1st place, where they have spent a total of 103 days this season.
Still, this - right now - doesn't feel like a 1st place team (and I know, feelings don't have much of a place in baseball analysis). They have been up four games five separate times this season, and have seen that lead slip away. Perhaps this fact makes you feel better about how resilient the team is, and that would be a valid emotion.
After having won five of six heading into a nine-game road trip at Arlington, Oakland, and San Francisco, I felt good. The Rangers, even after having drugged Cole Hamels into agreeing to a trade, BABIP'd Lance McCullers back to the minors - after the only bad start of his Major-League career - but the Astros came back in that game. In the past I would have turned the game off - my mantra was "Nobody should feel like a martyr watching their favorite team." Or I would have had to turn the game off, having destroyed the remote.
That game was followed up by a couple of 4-3 losses where the Astros played a game of seeing how many men they could leave on base. Then Luke Gregerson blew a game against Oakland to have Jed Lowrie win it in the 10th, and then the Astros got dominated a couple of times before Gregerson blew another game.
The Astros haven't outright won a road series since April 27-29, when they swept the Padres to improve to 14-17. Since that series, the Astros are 13-32 on the road, 8-26 in road games since June, and 4-16 in their last 20 road games. Thirteen of their road losses since the Padres series have been by one run.
I honestly have no idea what to make of this. But I do know that the playoffs are not guaranteed. I refuse to write off 2015 because it was unexpected. The idea that the Astros *could* (or, could not) miss the postseason because they can't win close games on the road infuriates me, and I refuse to be comforted because of a Sports Illustrated cover.
We - as a fanbase - have watched a lot of miserable baseball, from the Buttslide to the Blocked Bunt, games in which the Astros seemingly tried to find new ways to lose and embarrass themselves. While we haven't watched a Buttslide moment this season - if we have, I've blocked it out - being close and losing is somehow worse to me than getting embarrassed.
This is clearly a talented team. Carlos Correa is a legit superstar, to go along with Altuve, Springer, Keuchel. How the Astros still have a 1-game lead with the Astros running out Chris Carter and Luis Valbuena every game shows that nothing in the world makes sense and maybe it's an indicator of better times ahead.
If the Astros make it to the postseason I'll be surprised. Maybe that's the fatalism of the last four years. If they don't, I'll be more mad than I was about 111 losses. What's the point of this? In Milan Kundera's "The Unbearable Lightness of Being" Tomas and Tereza live in Prague at the beginning of the Soviet occupation of the 1960s. Tomas is a womanizer, living freely within his marriage; Tereza is jailed by the heaviness of her love for Tomas and is destroyed by his "lightness of being." The story goes on - obviously, because it's one of the greatest novels of all time - but in this stretched analogy, we are the Tereza, tortured by the Astros' flirting with disaster - hopeful that they will change - and their current unbearable lightness of being.
Monday, August 10, 2015
Monday Morning Hot Links
Well that sucked. The Astros marched into the last place, 48-61 A's and marched out with a sore groin and a bloody nose, losing three of four after Luke Gregerson gave up two more 9th inning runs and letting the A's celebrate like they won the damn World Series or something. The Astros' division lead is now down to 0.5 games. FanGraphs still likes them more than I do at the moment, giving the Astros a 54.3% chance of winning the division and an 80.4% chance of making the postseason.
*The Astros started the season with a 15-8 road record. Since this arbitrary endpoint, however, the Astros are 8-26 on the road. They're 15-19 in 1-run games, and have lost ten of their last eleven 1-run road games.
Luke Gregerson:
I don't think anyone's pressing or anything, I think a lot of guys are just kind of a little upset with themselves...and I feel, like, just a little, just a little personal anger. Not even necessarily at teammates, just more so personally amongst guys. We know we (are?) better than this, and we know we can do better than this, and I think that they know they need to step up and we need to win some ball games.
*Jed Lowrie, who has been to the playoffs four times - twice with Boston and twice with Oakland:
I'll tell you one thing. Every playoff team I've ever been on has gone through at least one stretch like this during the year. And the good ones find a way to pull through it.
*Oakland's Danny Valencia, in three games versus the Astros this series: 6x13, 2HR, 5RBI, 3K:2BB.
*Oliver Perez knew he was leaving Arizona:
They just called me, and right away I thought I was going to get traded or released. Sometimes you feel bad, because you have a lot of relationships with your friends. But at the same time, I'm going to have a new experience. We're in first place right now, and I feel happy to be here.
*The Astros haven't talked too much about September call-ups.
*San Jose Mercury-News: When you see A.J. Hinch, think Steve Kerr.
*The Astros started the season with a 15-8 road record. Since this arbitrary endpoint, however, the Astros are 8-26 on the road. They're 15-19 in 1-run games, and have lost ten of their last eleven 1-run road games.
Luke Gregerson:
I don't think anyone's pressing or anything, I think a lot of guys are just kind of a little upset with themselves...and I feel, like, just a little, just a little personal anger. Not even necessarily at teammates, just more so personally amongst guys. We know we (are?) better than this, and we know we can do better than this, and I think that they know they need to step up and we need to win some ball games.
*Jed Lowrie, who has been to the playoffs four times - twice with Boston and twice with Oakland:
I'll tell you one thing. Every playoff team I've ever been on has gone through at least one stretch like this during the year. And the good ones find a way to pull through it.
*Oakland's Danny Valencia, in three games versus the Astros this series: 6x13, 2HR, 5RBI, 3K:2BB.
*Oliver Perez knew he was leaving Arizona:
They just called me, and right away I thought I was going to get traded or released. Sometimes you feel bad, because you have a lot of relationships with your friends. But at the same time, I'm going to have a new experience. We're in first place right now, and I feel happy to be here.
*The Astros haven't talked too much about September call-ups.
*San Jose Mercury-News: When you see A.J. Hinch, think Steve Kerr.
PreStros Morning Report: Aug 9
Been a while since we've had a chance to do this, but we'll take a cue from the archives when, after a particularly brutal loss it was cathartic to look at the minors...
Fresno (67-48, 11.5 up)
Fresno came into the 9th and final game of a long homestand with an 8-0 record, but allowed the first nine runs of the game in a 9-3 loss to Sacramento. Brady Rodgers allowed 8H/7R (5ER), 4K:2BB in 5.1IP.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Tyler White: 1x2, 2B, 2BB, RBI
2. James Hoyt: 1IP, 0H/0ER*
1. Nolan Fontana: 2x4, 2B, BB
*Since May 1, Hoyt has thrown 28.2IP, allowing 29H/9ER, 38K:7BB
Corpus (72-42, already clinched playoff berth)
Corpus had a 1-0 lead heading into the 7th, and left the 7th tied 2-2. Then Midland enjoyed a pair of three-run innings for an 8-3 win over Corpus.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. A.J. Reed: 3x5
2. Jon Kemmer: 3x4, 2B, HR, RBI
1. Michael Feliz: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 8K:3BB
Lancaster (57-56, 3.5 GB)
J.D. Davis homered in his 6th straight game as Lancaster whooped up on High Desert, 8-0. Keegan Yuhl and Michael Freeman combined for 9IP, 3H/0ER, 9K:1BB.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. J.D. Davis: 2x4, HR, 4RBI
2. Michael Freeman: 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:0BB
1. Keegan Yuhl: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 5K:1BB
Quad Cities (74-37, already clinched playoff berth)
Quad Cities came into Sunday's game with their 2nd 12-game winning streak of the season, only to fall short of tying a club record in a 3-1 loss to Dayton.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Drew Ferguson: 1x4, outfield assist
2. Bobby Boyd: 1x3, BB, SB
1. Brock Dykxhoorn: 7IP, 6H/2ER, 8K:1BB
Tri-City (28-21, 3.0 up)
Tri-City erased a 2-0 deficit with a 3-run 4th, going on to beat Lowell 6-3.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Alex Winkelman: 5IP, 5H/2ER, 3K:1BB
2. Brooks Marlow: 2x5, 2 2B, RBI
1. Dexture McCall: 1x3, BB, HR, 2RBI
Greeneville (24-20, 1.5 up)
Greeneville dominated Bristol on Sunday in an 8-1 win in which Bristol didn't get their 1st run until the 9th inning. Makay Nelson, Matt Bower, Andrew Thome, and Samil De Los Santos combined for 9IP, 8H/1ER, 8K:0BB.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Brauly Mejia: 2x4, wB, 2RBI
2. Kyle Tucker: 3x4, 2B, RBI, SB, outfield assist
1. Pitching staff
GCL Astros (14-25, 8.5 GB)
Game report was somehow unavailable.
Fresno (67-48, 11.5 up)
Fresno came into the 9th and final game of a long homestand with an 8-0 record, but allowed the first nine runs of the game in a 9-3 loss to Sacramento. Brady Rodgers allowed 8H/7R (5ER), 4K:2BB in 5.1IP.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Tyler White: 1x2, 2B, 2BB, RBI
2. James Hoyt: 1IP, 0H/0ER*
1. Nolan Fontana: 2x4, 2B, BB
*Since May 1, Hoyt has thrown 28.2IP, allowing 29H/9ER, 38K:7BB
Corpus (72-42, already clinched playoff berth)
Corpus had a 1-0 lead heading into the 7th, and left the 7th tied 2-2. Then Midland enjoyed a pair of three-run innings for an 8-3 win over Corpus.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. A.J. Reed: 3x5
2. Jon Kemmer: 3x4, 2B, HR, RBI
1. Michael Feliz: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 8K:3BB
Lancaster (57-56, 3.5 GB)
J.D. Davis homered in his 6th straight game as Lancaster whooped up on High Desert, 8-0. Keegan Yuhl and Michael Freeman combined for 9IP, 3H/0ER, 9K:1BB.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. J.D. Davis: 2x4, HR, 4RBI
2. Michael Freeman: 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:0BB
1. Keegan Yuhl: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 5K:1BB
Quad Cities (74-37, already clinched playoff berth)
Quad Cities came into Sunday's game with their 2nd 12-game winning streak of the season, only to fall short of tying a club record in a 3-1 loss to Dayton.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Drew Ferguson: 1x4, outfield assist
2. Bobby Boyd: 1x3, BB, SB
1. Brock Dykxhoorn: 7IP, 6H/2ER, 8K:1BB
Tri-City (28-21, 3.0 up)
Tri-City erased a 2-0 deficit with a 3-run 4th, going on to beat Lowell 6-3.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Alex Winkelman: 5IP, 5H/2ER, 3K:1BB
2. Brooks Marlow: 2x5, 2 2B, RBI
1. Dexture McCall: 1x3, BB, HR, 2RBI
Greeneville (24-20, 1.5 up)
Greeneville dominated Bristol on Sunday in an 8-1 win in which Bristol didn't get their 1st run until the 9th inning. Makay Nelson, Matt Bower, Andrew Thome, and Samil De Los Santos combined for 9IP, 8H/1ER, 8K:0BB.
Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Brauly Mejia: 2x4, wB, 2RBI
2. Kyle Tucker: 3x4, 2B, RBI, SB, outfield assist
1. Pitching staff
GCL Astros (14-25, 8.5 GB)
Game report was somehow unavailable.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)